I guess this is the crux of the debate right here. I don't remember a lot of "develop-but-hopefully compete" years from 2002-2018. And I think it's asking a LOT of this fanbase to finish dead last in the AL East the last two seasons and go into another year more interested in developing for the future than competing in the present.
This is where I'm sitting too. And not only that but the messaging from the Front Office is that things aren't really going to be great until TAM arrive, which might be next year or 2026. All three of them won't hit the Majors like a house afire, so we're going to have to watch them mature. Which can be fun, but by that time we're in year what? eight? nine? of a rebuild. And that's assuming that they do turn into stars.
Pretty much sums it up for me. It seems like John Henry is saving a lot of money now in advance of saving even more money long-term. For the first time in I’m not even sure how long, they hold almost no interest in watching.
To me that's overthinking it a bit. I believe Henry meant exactly what he said, and that it was basically his response to all the tumult about full throttle and the team's payroll.
I'd counter that bringing in Breslow and his new coaches (majors and minors) was, in hindsight, the most radical organizational shift since at least the Mookie trade and not remotely marginal. It just wasn't the same sort of easily visible move as "we signed a guy to hit a million home runs" to get the endorphins flowing.
Even while grumbling in my basement I fully agree here, and am a big Breslow believer. In this fan's eyes he's violently adjusted the trajectory for Red Sox pitching up (SP in particular) and the position side was already in a good place and should continue to reflect development of the yoots. Finding a place to insert the missing monster RH bat can be solved with money. fwiw - they'll pull me back when they are showing $ commitment to winning or actually winning (meaning threating divisions not threating a winning record).
Is it asking a lot though? The 2022 and 2023 teams competed until derailed by injuries. I was there. I saw it happen.
Wow, that is really well thought out, RR. Thanks for that (sincerely). I'm willing to wait but I can see why Johnny from Burger King cannot.
Thanks for taking the time to type this up. I think you lay out your position well. It's clearer now why you and some others feel comfortable with the direction of the team. I won't respond to every point you make, I'll try to just give a few responses to the places I see the most disagreement.
Again, I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle here. I simply refuse to believe that doing more than what the Red Sox have done since 2021 would have to mean "mortgaging the future."
Thanks for the thoughtful response.
They made those big trades in moments where we already had a solid core in place. In 2014 they had Mookie, X and JBJ up but not yet performing at peak, and they were staying away from big FA (lol Ellsbury) and selling at the deadline; they didn't start buying until Price in 2016 and Sale in 2017.
Let's do the walkthrough, because this is really what they're trying to avoid here:
Leaving aside the validity of your point, "ATM" is sitting right there...
I liked the idea of them wearing tams. But ATM is pretty good.
This is better. Wish that there was a prospect named Charlie too.
There’s a lot of interesting and factual discussion in this thread. It’s probably some of the most reasonable discussion of the past decade I’ve seen in a while. Thanks to RR and others again for that.
. If we wait until 2027 or later to “buy” or “go all in” or whatever term people find appropriate, I worry the Sox may have sacrificed most of a decade waiting for a mystical “window” to open, only to remember that such things have a habit of slamming shut before you know it — prospects don’t pan out, they tear rib cartilage swinging a bat, etc.
I'm not saying that they should wait till 2027. I'm saying the opposite. With the jumps forward of their younger players, the window is opening now. ("Window" here stands simply for a block of talent under control that will let you compete.)There’s a lot of interesting and factual discussion in this thread. It’s probably some of the most reasonable discussion of the past decade I’ve seen in a while. Thanks to RR and others again for that.
That said… I look at the same facts as you two on this and come to the opposite conclusions.
And I think for people who have been so rational about these decisions, talk of “windows” opening and closing is a little bit squirrelly.
1) It’s simply not true that the Sox “didn’t start buying until 2016.” After 2014 they spent $180M signing Hanley and Sandoval to 4 and 5 year deals, and traded for two of the best starting pitchers available in Porcello and Miley. After 2015, they traded for an All Star closer in Kimbrel and signed David Price to a record setting 7 year, $217M deal, one of the largest in history to that point for a pitcher.
The 2015 and 2016 Red Sox weren’t good, but it wasn’t because the front office was writing off those seasons.
2) RR’s point about the 2018 team being almost the “end of the window” as opposed to the “start of the dynasty” (not even getting into the infuriating decision not to extend a certain RF) should offer a sober cautionary tale to anyone who is hand waving away competing in 2024 and 2025 because they’re planning to cash in on the ATM window
How far off is Zanatello? Generally really liking what he's doing. I was pretty skeptical of him sticking as a middle infielder but defensive reports are pretty encouraging and his offense looks like it'll continue to play- good plate discipline and batting skills. Power should develop. Definitely someone to possibly leverage into a great deal if he can continue this through AA when that ehem... .uh.... "magic window" should still be open.
This is one of the sillier things I've read here.
I'd classify HanRam/Panda/Porcello/Miley as more mid-market than top (I'd probably put the Story, Yoshida, Martin and Kenley acquisitions in the same bucket), but fine, we can say they started buying after 2014. That doesn't change the fact that they waited to see what they had in their new young core for a year (while selling at the deadline) and I think the comparison to this year still holds.There’s a lot of interesting and factual discussion in this thread. It’s probably some of the most reasonable discussion of the past decade I’ve seen in a while. Thanks to RR and others again for that.
That said… I look at the same facts as you two on this and come to the opposite conclusions.
And I think for people who have been so rational about these decisions, talk of “windows” opening and closing is a little bit squirrelly.
1) It’s simply not true that the Sox “didn’t start buying until 2016.” After 2014 they spent $180M signing Hanley and Sandoval to 4 and 5 year deals, and traded for two of the best starting pitchers available in Porcello and Miley. (And as you say, they followed that up after 2015 when they traded for an All Star closer in Kimbrel and signed David Price to a record setting 7 year, $217M deal, one of the largest in history to that point for a pitcher.)
The 2015 and 2016 Red Sox weren’t good, but it wasn’t because the front office was writing off those seasons.
2) RR’s point about the 2018 team being almost the “end of the window” as opposed to the “start of the dynasty” (not even getting into the infuriating decision not to extend a certain RF) should offer a sober cautionary tale to anyone who is hand waving away competing in 2024 and 2025 because they’re planning to cash in on the ATM window
This is ignoring a lot of factors, starting with the fact that the 2017-21 CBA completely changed how baseball did business. 2018 saw LAD drop under the CBT for the first time in 6 years, and NYY for the first time this century. That's how onerous being a third time offender was, and why they went to such great lengths to avoid it after 2019.
It's about having a flow of talent you can use (promote/trade).
Of course that seems more promising than going back five+ years, you already know how many of those guys from the past have busted while we can continue to dream on the 189 prospects the Sox have now.
But now the Dodgers are in their fourth year in a row paying tax, and the Yankees, Mets, Padres and Phillies are also in their third or fourth year in a row. And this is after even higher tax rates (the "Cohen tax") came in in the last CBT.
No, it's actually not a completely different picture at all.
It should also be noted that the overall tax exists to level the playing field for not just Cohen but pretty much all of these exact clubs. If these teams are just paying the bill, the system isn't working as it should.
Well, there is a lot more in a farm system than who is on the 40 man. Nestor Cortes Jr was in the system but not on the 40 man, Jasson Dominguez got signed that summer, JP Sears was in NY's system, those are just the first three guys I looked up.
I can only explain it so many times. So I've linked the spreadsheets here.
Yes, I'm aware that there's a lot more in a farm system than who is on the 40 man. . . which is why I looked at both the 40 man and the list of the two team's top 30 prospects.
Sure. So identify for me the sure-fire prospects in the system as of 2017/18/19 that were due to come up in 2018/19/20/21 and how they would have bolstered the team. Or any ML team, were they traded.
Kind of, a ton of data with little context. Baseball organizations are so big and in such constant flux that it's pretty hard to get much insight out of an analysis like this IMO.
I appreciate you taking an empirical look at this, but as noted you're ignoring the state of the farm system. You are also still not quite capturing time.
I literally started by looking at the farm system. You know that, because you already responded to that post.
We could play "what if" all day long, with or without the rose-colored glasses.
But you keep ignoring the point that the farm systems were in different stages of prospect development.
Then by all means, feel free to go through the 2019 rosters, do the math, and show why the Yankees were so much better positioned to just keep signing free agents and remain competitive for the next five years, while the Red Sox had no choice but to take an indefinate break from competing at the big league level. Just repeating "bad contacts!" over and over again doesn't count as analysis, particularly when the (1) the 2019 Yankees had Stanton, Hicks, and Ellsbury on the books, and (b) the whole point of being a big market team is that you can continue to compete despite a few bad contracts. Since I've already done most of the work by digging into the farm systems and 40-mans, it shouldn't take you that long.
LOL. Do better. You're asserting the teams were equal when a casual look at the spreadsheets say they're not.
I'm not the one doing the casual look. I'm the one who actually went through both the 40-man rosters and the top-30 prospects and did the math. You're the one going "just look at Cot's!" over and over again.
