If Trumbo is on the list as a desirable option for a "middle of the order" bat to replace Napoli, then the answer is already on the roster...Will Middlebrooks.
Hot Stove Wishes
- Thread starter The Boomer
- Start date
CaskNFappin said:
How much of a middle of the order bat is Napoli, really? Corey Hart or Kendrys Morales would be fine in Napoli's role.
If Napoli is gone, I'd look into signing Beltran and Hart, and playing Nava at first against most righties. I think they could still field a pretty good lineup with that.CaskNFappin said:
Colorado could be persuaded, yes, but not for the package you suggest. Dempster isn't attractive. Nava is a player they would want, but with limited upside has limited value. Buchholz is attractive but comes with injury/stamina concerns and is only 2 years away from free agency. Unless they somehow view those other prospects you suggest as top tier, this doesn't tempt them.ehaz said:
If they deal Tulo or Cargo, they will have to get at least 2 top level, MLB ready prospects and some other solid players, like the packages being discussed in the Tulo to the Cards rumor thread. Substitute Workman and JBJ for the prospects you suggest and you may be on to something, but then it probably becomes too big of a price to pay for Boston.
ehaz said:
I will personally drive Clay, WMB, Webster, and Swihart to Colorado, even in a blizzard, if Tulo and Cargo are coming back. Stick Tulo in at SS and move Xander to 3B, move Nava/Carp to 1B, and field an outfield of JBJ, Cargo, and Victorino.Sox and Rocks said:
Obviously, fantasy team speculation. When do pitchers and catchers report again?
A few of my thoughts...
-I definitely wouldn't swing a deal for Tulowitzki. He's 29 and, while he's one of the best SS's in the game, I just don't like the cost of money and prospects to be assumed. I'd rather save the blue chip 'specs for acquiring someone like Stanton, a hitter who profiles as young and not yet in his prime. Tulowitzki will be 30 sooner rather than later and has a history of injury issues. Not to mention I'd much rather see what Bogaerts can do with a full season at SS first.
-Gonzalez (CarGo), however, is someone I might look into. Though I'm not too fond of his OPS away from Coors Field.
-I was considering Ike Davis merely as a buy-low guy who we hope can rediscover some magic or potential he may have once had. Reason being I don't see many options for a cleanup 1B player if Napoli somehow leaves. Not big on Morales at all. I'd rather we stick with Nava there even though we'll have power deficiency at the corners with him and WMB. However, maybe WMB finds his stroke this year? I still haven't given up on him completely, I'd love something along the lines of .260/.330/.450-ish with stellar defense. Unreasonable? Guess we'll see.
-I definitely wouldn't swing a deal for Tulowitzki. He's 29 and, while he's one of the best SS's in the game, I just don't like the cost of money and prospects to be assumed. I'd rather save the blue chip 'specs for acquiring someone like Stanton, a hitter who profiles as young and not yet in his prime. Tulowitzki will be 30 sooner rather than later and has a history of injury issues. Not to mention I'd much rather see what Bogaerts can do with a full season at SS first.
-Gonzalez (CarGo), however, is someone I might look into. Though I'm not too fond of his OPS away from Coors Field.
-I was considering Ike Davis merely as a buy-low guy who we hope can rediscover some magic or potential he may have once had. Reason being I don't see many options for a cleanup 1B player if Napoli somehow leaves. Not big on Morales at all. I'd rather we stick with Nava there even though we'll have power deficiency at the corners with him and WMB. However, maybe WMB finds his stroke this year? I still haven't given up on him completely, I'd love something along the lines of .260/.330/.450-ish with stellar defense. Unreasonable? Guess we'll see.
pdub said:
Tulo is one year older than Carlos Gonzalez. The contract is shorter (FA after 2017, when he'll be 31). The difference in cost for CarGo in years 2014-2017 and Tulo in those same years is $13 million.
And as for injuries? Carlos Gonzalez actually played less games than Tulo in 2013. And in the past four years (that arbitrary data point marks the first full season that CarGo was a full-time player) Gonzalez has played 79 more games than Tulowitzki.
Drilling down further, Tulo has only played more than 150 games in a season twice. Gonzalez? He's never played more than 150 games in a season - 2010 was his high water mark at 145 games. And their games/year averages are 115 for Tulo versus 108 for CarGo.
I guess what I'm saying is...
Yaz4Ever said:Obviously, fantasy team speculation. When do pitchers and catchers report again?
Last year was a miserable season. This year was the polar opposite. But hot stove threads on SoSH? Never, ever, ever change.
If it's true they were in on him at the deadline, I bet the Sox try to bring in Luke Hochevar. I can imagine he's quite psyched to get out of Kansas City.
And I've needed a couple weeks to get his terrible Felix Heredia impression out of my head, but I ultimately think Breslow's fine; just miscast for the 8th inning. Would anyone here not enjoy the monstrous Oliver Perez 2.0?
They might also pre-order a trade deadline acquisition of Eric O'Flaherty, whose due back from Tommy John in August. Maybe David Ross could liaison that one too.
I don't hate Hanrahan. Don't trade for a reliever.
And I've needed a couple weeks to get his terrible Felix Heredia impression out of my head, but I ultimately think Breslow's fine; just miscast for the 8th inning. Would anyone here not enjoy the monstrous Oliver Perez 2.0?
They might also pre-order a trade deadline acquisition of Eric O'Flaherty, whose due back from Tommy John in August. Maybe David Ross could liaison that one too.
I don't hate Hanrahan. Don't trade for a reliever.
So, a few points...Trlicek's Whip said:
-$13M is still a saving.
-We have more of a need in the outfield than shortstop, assuming Ellsbury leaves. Why get Tulo when the plan is to have Bogaerts assume the position?
-Gonzalez's OPS away = .987; Tulowitzki\s = .850.
-I said I might look into Gonzalez as an option, meaning I retain my own skepticism.
Yes, you were right about the injuries. My comment was in haste with regards to that point and I didn't look hard enough at the evidence. But was your comment after that analysis necessary? I assume its an attempt to mock me as ignorant or something like that. Either way, I have zero desire to argue and trade jabs with you.
pdub said:
I apologize - my post quoted yours but I didn't mean to single you out. The post that trumpeted Team Trumbo (and suggested that we should consider Billy Butler) upthread was what prompted me to post at all.
I took your post to illustrate a symptom of any speculative thread with "Hot Stove" in the title. Which is that at worst it flatlines into listing guys that won us a fantasy league this year. [Personally, Konerko is a binky of mine for that reason ever since his peak years.] And your example certainly wasn't illustrative as the worst case.
I was saying that to prefer CarGo over Tulo (using your example, not piling on) makes sense regarding positional need as you said. But that's tip of the iceberg, which is only as far as certain hot stove posts demonstrate. In reality it's more than "we need an OF bat." At least, it appears to be for Ben Cherington. Getting the best bat or best arm every winter isn't necessarily enough.
In hindsight Victorino is valuable now because we don't have to find a run-producing defensive RF *this* winter. Because we signed him last year. Meaning we are talking Choo and Beltran but we don't automatically *need* to chase those trains. And in hindsight Dempster is valuable because we now have 6 established veteran starters, which signals vast flexibility and depth - whether that means trades now or next July, or to counteract injury attrition during the season if our guys all stay.
To drill down I don't think the $13 million savings is that big a deal, especially post-Punto trade in the Ben Era. And not even the years for Tulo is a dealbreaker - I don't think we should go get Tulo, but if he's the best available bat at a premium position not just this winter, but down the road in future FA seasons, or down the road when other needs arise and we need the flexibility to trade for unique windows of opportunity (like our hopes and dreams for Stanton), then it may make sense.
I gather the Red Sox want to maintain payroll flexibility going forward and not double down until the next nuclear option/Punto trade. Ben also seems to be working the corners of roster flexibility on the field as well. Role players, people that may be able to shift around or maximizing platoon positions. It's not ideal to have Victorino patrol CF, or six starters who all expect to start, but it's not rock-and-a-hard-place futility for this team either.
We can't see all the gears and shifting pieces of the watch when we toss out names in threads like these, we just see what time it is now.
I understand that this thread is titled "Hot Stove Wishes" but a lot of the spitballing is akin to the Tommy John contest thread where people are posting bullseyes and trying to guess correctly instead of reason out their bucket lists.
Here's my offseason plan.
All the free agents walk.
Sign Tim Hudson 2 yrs / $24m
Trade Wil Middlebrooks and Ryan Dempster to MIL for Aramis Ramirez and Norichika Aoki
Trade RDLR to CIN for Ryan Hanigan
Trade John Lackey, Anthony Ranauldo and Daniel Nava to SFG for Brandon Belt. Immediately sign Belt to an extension.
In Ramirez, we improve our 3B offense in 2014 while clearing the field for Cecchini to take over the job in 2015 or even late 2014. With Hanigan, we get a premium defensive catcher who should be able to bounce back and post decent enough OBP to be an ok offensive player. With Belt, we cash in some of our excess pitching for a premium young talent at 1B who can potentially hold down that position for the next 5 years. Aoki is a guy who I think is undervalued by the Brewers who can be some insurance as a guy who can share time with Gomes in left and can fill in in right field if Bradley Jr. doesn't work out.
Most importantly, by letting all of our FAs walk and signing no free agents that have received a QO, we end up with 4 first round picks in the 2014 draft. And while I didn't calculate the numbers exactly it looks to me like we'd only add about $15m to our current payroll, remaining $17m below the luxury tax threshold (some of which could be used for bullpen depth).
Rotation
Lester
Buchholz
Hudson
Peavy
Doubront
Lineup
Victorino, RF
Pedroia, 2B
Ortiz, DH
Belt, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Boegarts, SS
Aoki / Gomes, LF
Bradley Jr, CF
Hanigan, C
All the free agents walk.
Sign Tim Hudson 2 yrs / $24m
Trade Wil Middlebrooks and Ryan Dempster to MIL for Aramis Ramirez and Norichika Aoki
Trade RDLR to CIN for Ryan Hanigan
Trade John Lackey, Anthony Ranauldo and Daniel Nava to SFG for Brandon Belt. Immediately sign Belt to an extension.
In Ramirez, we improve our 3B offense in 2014 while clearing the field for Cecchini to take over the job in 2015 or even late 2014. With Hanigan, we get a premium defensive catcher who should be able to bounce back and post decent enough OBP to be an ok offensive player. With Belt, we cash in some of our excess pitching for a premium young talent at 1B who can potentially hold down that position for the next 5 years. Aoki is a guy who I think is undervalued by the Brewers who can be some insurance as a guy who can share time with Gomes in left and can fill in in right field if Bradley Jr. doesn't work out.
Most importantly, by letting all of our FAs walk and signing no free agents that have received a QO, we end up with 4 first round picks in the 2014 draft. And while I didn't calculate the numbers exactly it looks to me like we'd only add about $15m to our current payroll, remaining $17m below the luxury tax threshold (some of which could be used for bullpen depth).
Rotation
Lester
Buchholz
Hudson
Peavy
Doubront
Lineup
Victorino, RF
Pedroia, 2B
Ortiz, DH
Belt, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Boegarts, SS
Aoki / Gomes, LF
Bradley Jr, CF
Hanigan, C
Prometheus- I have a few thoughts. Signing hudson would be awesome. Definitively deepens the pitching. thats a nice rotation, and keeps webster in RP. I know it would be great for him to be a SP, but i dont think hes ready.
Now-
trading WMB and dempster is a solid idea. But offering both of them for even ramirez wouldnt happen, nevermind adding in a cost controlled RF in Aoki. They would laugh at that. It would require a mlb ready prospect at least for Aoki because the Cubs have a highschool pitching rotation.
trading RDLR for a catcher isnt needed, because Haigan is basically a not as good Salty. If RDLR could be traded for something, that would be great. But we already have Ross and Lavarnway.
Lackey, Ranauldo and Nava for Belt? One, I wouldnt want to trade Ranauldo. He's going to be valuable next season. Meh, lackey. I'm on the fence about him now. But we would have to eat his contract if we wanted Belt back. Belt is going to be awesome, no doubt. But I dont see the giants even consider that offer.
Now-
trading WMB and dempster is a solid idea. But offering both of them for even ramirez wouldnt happen, nevermind adding in a cost controlled RF in Aoki. They would laugh at that. It would require a mlb ready prospect at least for Aoki because the Cubs have a highschool pitching rotation.
trading RDLR for a catcher isnt needed, because Haigan is basically a not as good Salty. If RDLR could be traded for something, that would be great. But we already have Ross and Lavarnway.
Lackey, Ranauldo and Nava for Belt? One, I wouldnt want to trade Ranauldo. He's going to be valuable next season. Meh, lackey. I'm on the fence about him now. But we would have to eat his contract if we wanted Belt back. Belt is going to be awesome, no doubt. But I dont see the giants even consider that offer.
PrometheusWakefield said:
PrometheusWakefield said:
I don't like the Milwaukee trade, because I want no part of Ramirez. He'll turn 36 next year, he managed only 80 starts at 3B in 2013, and he was an ordinary hitter away from Miller Park. And he has become an atrocious defensive player (he was never better than average). I think there's a non-zero chance that he's a replacement-level player next year, and I would be surprised if Middlebrooks isn't the more valuable of the two.
OTOH, I like Aoki--he'd give us about 80% of Nava's offense, with much better D--but MLBTR is saying the Brewers don't want to trade him, which translates to him costing too much. I'd rather reconfigure this trade to target Aoki specifically, but I'd be prepared to strike out due to the asking price being too high.
As I said in the rumors thread, I'm intrigued by the idea of Hanigan, but RDLR strikes me as a high price for a 32-year-old defensive specialist catcher coming off his worst offensive season. Hanigan should be a buy-low opportunity, and RDLR doesn't quite seem like buying low. Maybe I haven't adjusted my idea of his value enough for the fact that he's a year older and didn't impress this year.
Finally, I would be shocked if Belt was available at any price we'd be willing to pay. Your suggested deal seems more or less reasonable--and therefore it won't be enough.
Would like to see Salty for 2 years - say $20-25Million - not sure McCann and his demands worth it ... maybe 3 years at the most.
Resign Napoli for 2 years - say $28-30Million.
Drew would be nice to have back for 2 years - say $28-30Million ... give Bogaerts time to settle into ML and allow Sox to consider what Middlebrooks is capable of.
Will need to pick up good backup IF - some pretty good bench talent is available.
Keep Middlebrooks and show him some 1B. Can play 3rd/DH and maybe do some time at 1B. Possible replacement for Napoli when he leaves and Cecchini is ready to step up.
Would like to see trade to LAA for Peter Bourjos to take over CF. LAA is got more OF than they know what to do with - pitching is what they seek - Bourjos has been bench because of Trout & Hamilton - supposedly good club house attitude - would not cost too much - maybe De La Rosa & another player.
Nava & Gomez can hold down LF ... Carp maybe good at rounding out a trade.
Add Chris Perez or Rodney for the Pen ... Bailey could then be flipped for a young arm or used in Bourjos trade.
Not sure about Hudson. Think talk of Stanton is wishful thinking. If Sox pick up Bourjos then they don't need Beltran.
This team does not need much just a few piece to fill the holes created by FA.
Resign Napoli for 2 years - say $28-30Million.
Drew would be nice to have back for 2 years - say $28-30Million ... give Bogaerts time to settle into ML and allow Sox to consider what Middlebrooks is capable of.
Will need to pick up good backup IF - some pretty good bench talent is available.
Keep Middlebrooks and show him some 1B. Can play 3rd/DH and maybe do some time at 1B. Possible replacement for Napoli when he leaves and Cecchini is ready to step up.
Would like to see trade to LAA for Peter Bourjos to take over CF. LAA is got more OF than they know what to do with - pitching is what they seek - Bourjos has been bench because of Trout & Hamilton - supposedly good club house attitude - would not cost too much - maybe De La Rosa & another player.
Nava & Gomez can hold down LF ... Carp maybe good at rounding out a trade.
Add Chris Perez or Rodney for the Pen ... Bailey could then be flipped for a young arm or used in Bourjos trade.
Not sure about Hudson. Think talk of Stanton is wishful thinking. If Sox pick up Bourjos then they don't need Beltran.
This team does not need much just a few piece to fill the holes created by FA.
If we going to go crazy here with trades such as the "Gonzalez or Tulowitzki" suggested then I'll go a little further and throw another "crazy" one out there.
Trade with the Marlins: Stanton, Morrison & Fernandez for Middlebrooks, Doubront, Bradley, De La Rosa, Workman, Nava & Lavarway. The Sox get RF, 1B (important since Napoli deal seems a tad weak on the Sox part) & A young recovering arm that was amazing when he was pitching. The Marlins take care of 3B issue they have now, get a solid LH starter, a young CF, a young RH who maybe a starter but is already shown bullpen abilities, a RH starter who has proven himself, Nava at his peak and catcher who may actual live up to his billing.
Remember, this is crazy talk.
Trade with the Marlins: Stanton, Morrison & Fernandez for Middlebrooks, Doubront, Bradley, De La Rosa, Workman, Nava & Lavarway. The Sox get RF, 1B (important since Napoli deal seems a tad weak on the Sox part) & A young recovering arm that was amazing when he was pitching. The Marlins take care of 3B issue they have now, get a solid LH starter, a young CF, a young RH who maybe a starter but is already shown bullpen abilities, a RH starter who has proven himself, Nava at his peak and catcher who may actual live up to his billing.
Remember, this is crazy talk.
Recovering arm? Recovering from what, a season where he almost won the Cy Young award? No way the Marlins would consider even considering that.
Some players that intrigue me.
Corey Hart. Fenway Park would be the ideal place for him to rebuild value. He figures to cost $5 million less than Mike Napoli, and if we don't re-sign Napoli we get a draft pick. Having Carp as the backup gives us freedom to take a bit of a risk here.
Juan Uribe. Has a ridiculous 19.7 UZR/150 over 2,877 innings at third base. Could be a potential 3 WAR player even if he hits to his career averages.
Chris Young. Solid defense, above average baserunning, 120 wRC+ against lefties.
Carlos Ruiz, Jesse Crain and Ryan Madson would also be good buy low options.
Corey Hart. Fenway Park would be the ideal place for him to rebuild value. He figures to cost $5 million less than Mike Napoli, and if we don't re-sign Napoli we get a draft pick. Having Carp as the backup gives us freedom to take a bit of a risk here.
Juan Uribe. Has a ridiculous 19.7 UZR/150 over 2,877 innings at third base. Could be a potential 3 WAR player even if he hits to his career averages.
Chris Young. Solid defense, above average baserunning, 120 wRC+ against lefties.
Carlos Ruiz, Jesse Crain and Ryan Madson would also be good buy low options.
I never said I was playing with a full deck. Insanity aside it's fun to play with the unreal. Just wanted to get us off the crazy talk and on to something a tad more real.Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
It concerns me to see Drew & Ellsbury leaving and the potential to also lose Napoli & Salty. However, I feel all of them can be replaced with the exception of Salty. Bogaerts can handle SS and play 3B. Middlebrooks plays a decent 3B, although; I'd like to see him over at 1B. Cecchini is still a year or two away, if he continues improving as he has in the past. Nava & Carp are capable of covering 1B. CF can be handled by Victorino (At least for the coming season) & Bradley is a solid backup. RF field can be covered by whoever is not playing CF or Nava if need be. The catching seems to be a hole without Salty. Ross can give you 40 - 50 solid games with enough offense to justify his playing but Lavarway just has not impressed me. Salty worked hard to improve behind the plate and to be a more well rounded hitter and I think his knowledge of the staff is important. A defensive wizard (Ruiz maybe) with Ross maybe a solution but I'd rather keep Salty around for the next two - three years.
A few backup IF who can play several positions would fill out the bench. I'm not sure Beltran is an answer mainly due to his age and declining defensive capabilities - RF in Fenway would not be a good place for Beltran. Most of the other FA don't seem to be a fit for RF either because they lack the defensive abilities or they have offensive weakness. That's why I keep bringing up Peter Bourjos. He's young and was pushed aside to make room for Trout. He's the odd man out in LA since Hamilton came on board. He can hit, steal bases, plays solid defense and has shown some power. He's not perfect otherwise, he'd be playing. He lacks discipline at the plate which gives more SO and a lower OBP than I'd like to see. He is a solid replacement for Ellsbury that will not cost a great deal. That leaves Victorino in RF and allows Bradley to gain more ML experience.
I'd leave the rotation basically untouched with Dempster being the odd man out. I'd trade him, eat 1/2 his salary and get a young arm or two. Workman seems capable of stepping into the rotation with De La Rosa, Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo & Owens available to fill-in when injuries pop up. Lester, Peavy, Buchholz, Doubront and Lackey are solid enough to carry the workload.
The pen is solid but may need an arm or two to lock it down. I've lost confidence in Bailey and feel he would be better traded. Miller and Morales will be back but I don't think their answers to any holes that may pop up. Breslow was great this year but I'm not sure the eighth inning should be his. I'd like to pick up Rodney or Chris Perez if not both. Adding both of them would make the bullpen a nightmare for opposing teams
There is insane and then there is this. If you're going to post trade ideas at least make sure they have some basis in reality.lxt said:
I've got a hot stove wish.
Get the goddamn hot stove hot stoving damnit! It feels like the season ended a year and a half ago and we haven't done squiddley.
Fuck man, this is going to be longest short offseason since 2007.
Get the goddamn hot stove hot stoving damnit! It feels like the season ended a year and a half ago and we haven't done squiddley.
Fuck man, this is going to be longest short offseason since 2007.
Hoplite said:
Although I like Uribe, I don't think he'd be anything more than a utility infielder for us. He posted a 25.6% walk rate in April this year, but ended up with a 5.0% for the rest of the season. He also had a .322 BABIP in play this year, compared to a career BABIP of .282, and his career OBP is .299. Outstanding defense, though, and he was worth 5.1 wins last year, so obviously there is some value to be had..
Oh, that's where the nonsense ends? You can't throw that many spitballs in a row and expect many of us to keep reading.lxt said:
I was told by a friend in Miami that the Marlins shutdown Fernandez a little early this year due to concerns over arm soreness steaming from his elbow. The Marlins where concerned about over extending him. I think he got 170+ inns this year.PrometheusWakefield said:
It is my hope that it is only a rumor and that Fernandez will be back stronger next season.
No argument from me on the performance he turned in and the potential he has. He and a few others in Miami are why fans there should have hope for the future of the franchise.
pdub said:
Well, anyone who is 29 "will be 30" eventually, barring unfortunate circumstances.
He turned 29 barely a month ago.
So, he will be 30 in 11 months - as far as year increments of age go, that's about as "later" as one gets.
Didn't mean to cut you off--after all this is the thread for wishes and wild conjecture.lxt said:
I wish we could watch the same--or as close to the same team try for a repeat in '14. A childlike wish maybe; but there it is.
Honestly, my wish is to avoid any big commitments to any of these free agents. If any big contracts get signed, make them with Jon Lester now that Pedroia is signed. Give Bogaerts the Longoria contract if he wants it.
Stick with the overpay for shorter years. Give Napoli $35 mill for two years if necessary to keep him. That would get his attention. To me he's a middle of the order bat because he inspires fear.
I must also remark that its amazing how valuable Lackey has become to the team and in the trade market, if desired.
p.s. To me the thorny problem is catcher. I don't know how you field a credible starter without overpaying McCann or Salty. I would like to see Salty back on a reasonable deal, but I think the prices are going to go crazy this year. There are going to be some jaw-dropping deals for the Nolascos and Drews of the world.
Stick with the overpay for shorter years. Give Napoli $35 mill for two years if necessary to keep him. That would get his attention. To me he's a middle of the order bat because he inspires fear.
I must also remark that its amazing how valuable Lackey has become to the team and in the trade market, if desired.
p.s. To me the thorny problem is catcher. I don't know how you field a credible starter without overpaying McCann or Salty. I would like to see Salty back on a reasonable deal, but I think the prices are going to go crazy this year. There are going to be some jaw-dropping deals for the Nolascos and Drews of the world.
[SIZE=9.5pt]It's okay ... I got a tad carried away ... the team the Sox put together this year is more along the lines of how I think ... not saying I'm a wizard and knew this team would be good ... more along the lines of short-term commitments for more money for talent players ... you're not going to sign a Cano with that kind of thinking but I rather have a solid player who will perform with a young, hungry minor leaguer backing him up with a versatile bench player ready to play. Defense is a key also. Solid starters can become great when they are backed up by a solid defense. Catching is a must also. Look at the teams Varitek lead. A catcher the staff has confidence in is worth his weight in wins.[/SIZE]teddywingman said:
[SIZE=9.5pt]It's possible for the Sox to reconstruct this years team with a few tweaks. Resigning Drew, Napoli & Salty are very real possibilities but I'm afraid Ellsbury is going to the highest bidder. Drew I think can be had for 2 years at about $25-28million. Napoli wants a little "longevity" is his next contract which I think the Sox should offer - say $29-30million for 2 years. Signing Salty should be a priority. The staff has confidence in him and he has shown that he'll work to improve. I think a two to three year deal at $10-11million a year would be fine. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=9.5pt]Resigning these guys to two or three year deals gives guys like Bogaerts, Bradley, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Swihart, Vazquez & Marrero a chance to further their talents and fine tune weaknesses. Middlebrooks struggled after the wrest injury. He has power but seemed to lose his plate patients and started chasing bad pitches. His defense is good enough to play 3B and possibly 1B when Napoli leaves. Bogaerts showed me great patients at the plate and some solid fielding. I think he's the real deal. He can step in for Drew or possibly take over at 3B if Middlebrooks moves across the diamond. However, Cecchini may capture 3B so I think Bogaerts is our future SS. Salty will continue to improve and be solid behind the plate. The staff feels comfortable with him calling the game. He's not Varitek but he is continually improving. He will give Swihart & Vazquez time to reach the ML level.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9.5pt]CF is a question mark presently. Victorino can cover it for a year and give Bradley a chance to develop further. Bradley has defensive abilities, solid range and a decent arm but he struggled terribly in the batters box. A year playing behind someone like Victorino can only allow him to improve. This is an area I think picking up someone like Bourjos from LAA would be a positive move. Having Bourjos in center and keeping Victorino in right would be a positive move for the Sox. Bradley will learn a great deal from both players and be given the time he needs. What will he cost, most likely Peavy. I read the Sox are open to moving him. Not sure if that's a good idea but it's one I could live with.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9.5pt]The rotation is solid but if Peavy and Dempster are traded I think a spot may open up for Workman. The Sox will likely have to pick up another arm to make sure there are enough arms to deal with injuries. De La Rosa, Webster and maybe Barnes and Ranaudo could fill in if a rash of injuries come up. I think adding a "reconstruction" project like Halladay or Johnson would be interesting. Garza & Hudson seem to be two pitchers that could replace Peavy and Dempster but I'm not sure what kind of contract they're looking for. Garza I think would be expensive and may want more than 3 years where Hudson I think would take two years for Dempster money.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=9.5pt]The pen could benefit from signing either Chris Perez or Rodney and letting Bailey go. Signing both of them with guys like Breslow, Tazawa, Uehara & Workman would create a killer pen. [/SIZE]
lxt said:
I wouldn't put much stock into Bradley's troubles at the plate. It was only 107 PA's, don't forget that Pedroia stuggled at the plate at first but was given the opportunity to play through the struggles. JBJ didn't change his approach at the big league level which is a good sign. I do agree that a backup centerfielder is a good idea and Chris Young seems to be the perfect fit as many other people here have stated.
I think Pedroia is a phenomenon onto himself. There are few players like him in baseball. Is Bradley another Pedroia, I can't say. He may have improved at the plate if he was given the time Franconia gave Peddy. I'm not sold yet. Going forward, say a year or two and I think he is the Sox CF.TOleary25 said:
Chris Young is not my choice. He doesn't have the plate patients I think the Sox are trying to build back into the line up. His OBP and SO/Walk ratios are poor. He AB remind me of Salty, plenty of power with SO & a low OBP. With a catcher I can live with that. He does have speed. I do admit his glove is good and he would be a solid defensive OF. I just not sold on him being the solution.
lxt said:
Pedroia may be a phenomenon unto himself, but there's nothing particularly unique or Pedroia-esque about somebody struggling mightily in their early ML games and going on to be a very good baseball player for a long time. Here are slash lines for some players' first 100 PA, grabbed pretty quickly from the all-time OPS+ leaders list at BBref:
A. .255/.298/.367
B. .191/.273/.315
C. .198/.305/.272
D. .189/.280/.337
A. Jim Thome. B. Harmon Killebrew. C. Larry Walker. D. Jackie Bradley Jr.
In expecting Bradley to move forward from his crappy 2013 cup of coffee and develop into a player more in line with his minor league numbers and scouting projections, we're not asking him to do anything extraordinary or Pedroia-like. It's 100% normal. (Not universal--some excellent players do hit the ground running and show at least above-average ML performance from the beginning. But not all, by any means.)
(CAVEAT, because somebody's bound to raise this red herring, even though nothing about the above remotely implies it: I'm not suggesting that Bradley will be as good as any of those other guys.)
You've touched upon another subject I think is usually overstated or often misunderstood, payroll flexibility. To many seem to think it means not locking someone into a long-term deal, I think that is dead wrong. I believe there is an ideal # of open positional spots on a roster in any given year and that depends on how good your farm system is. Theo Epstein/Ben C. wanted the farm to be able to contribute up to 2 players a year to the team. Now that does not mean adding 2 new positional starters per year nor does it mean adding 2 players from the farm per year. It means having the choice to add up to 2 players per year, meaning you could trade 1 or both prospects for other chips outside your system.Trlicek's Whip said:
That said, I believe the ideal positional opening per year for the Red Sox right now is 2. Ideally the players you have, have staggered expiring contracts. Therefore you would have a few players at 5, 5+ year deals, a few at 4 year deals, a few at 3 years and so on. I believe that 1B and LF are the easiest roster spots to fill, so the emphasis should be on other roster spots. While roster flexibility is ideal it's also ideal to have most of your every day positional roster locked in every year as well, therefore I think it's overstated and misunderstood by the masses what exactly payroll flexibility means.
The benefits of having at least 1 rookie a year battle for a positional roster spot not only keeps the overall payroll down, but keeps veterans on their toes as well as bring a youthful enthusiastic joyful reminder to the veterans. This also keeps the door open to bringing in at least 1 free agent which should along with a rookie/s would help the clubhouse from getting complacent.
Agreed. I'm just stating that Bradley will likely be a solid player in the near future but I'd like to give him another year or two to get his feet under him. Being in a backup role, learning from experience players would benefit him greatly. It's possible if the Sox let him play every day he would've been able to establish himself, like Pedroia and some of the others you mentioned. However, they had Ellsbury and the luxury of allowing Bradley to work things out was not available. If the Sox resign Napoli and Salty the Sox may be able to let Bradley play and develop but without them or additions that compensate for them I think picking up someone with experience would be a good thing.Savin Hillbilly said:
He's a solid prospect who has shown the potential for being an everyday player but I think a little more fine tuning is necessary.
lxt said:
If we're going to compare him to Pedroia in terms of giving him time to "work things out", let's let it play out exactly as Pedroia's career did...
Pedroia came up as a late season call-up in 2006 (31 G, 98 PA). He was handed the starting 2B job on Opening Day 2007 and struggled to get his feet under him until May. Bradley's time in the bigs so far (37 G, 107 PA) is essentially Pedroia's 2006 cup of coffee. He has to be given the starting CF job on Opening Day 2014 and be allowed to "grow into it" before the comparison is really complete.
I think we need to keep in mind that JBJ starting the 2013 season with the big club and "failing" was not a case of his coming up and being sent back down because he was not producing. He was put on the big league roster because Ortiz was on the DL. Were it not for that, he starts the year in Pawtucket and we probably don't see him until July or later. And maybe we'd be much more optimistic about him because we'd be focusing more on his 275/374/489 slash line in Pawtucket rather than the 189/280/337 line he put up in Boston.
Devizier said:
No one is making the comparison to say that JBJ is going to be the next Pedroia. The comparison is more to emphasize that JBJ's limited MLB production so far is in no way predictive of anything. All this talk that "he's not ready" is based entirely on his short stints playing for the big club in 2013.
If Ellsbury signs elsewhere, Jackie Bradley Jr is going to be the starting center fielder for the Red Sox on Opening Day. He's not going to be eased into it. He's not going to be a platoon player or the 4th outfielder. It's starter or bust, at least for the first three months or so of the season.
My hot stove wishes:
(1) Don't sign a player who received a QO.
(2) Don't resign Drew, Napoli, or Ellsbury.
The Red Sox farm system is loaded with talent. The Red Sox did a nice job last season when they added high upside prospects Denney and Stankiewicz, along with elite upside prospects, Devers and Ball. I would like to see the Red Sox add another wave of high upside prospects. Keeping their first round pick, which will likely fall around pick 25 in the first round, while obtaining 3 sandwich picks would give the Red Sox plenty of opportunities to strengthen one of the best farm systems in the game. . . .
I suppose that leaves James Loney or Hart for first base unless the Red Sox want to give an expanded role to Carp. I support selling high on Nava if the Red Sox can find an offensive upgrade in LF through the trade market.
(1) Don't sign a player who received a QO.
(2) Don't resign Drew, Napoli, or Ellsbury.
The Red Sox farm system is loaded with talent. The Red Sox did a nice job last season when they added high upside prospects Denney and Stankiewicz, along with elite upside prospects, Devers and Ball. I would like to see the Red Sox add another wave of high upside prospects. Keeping their first round pick, which will likely fall around pick 25 in the first round, while obtaining 3 sandwich picks would give the Red Sox plenty of opportunities to strengthen one of the best farm systems in the game. . . .
I suppose that leaves James Loney or Hart for first base unless the Red Sox want to give an expanded role to Carp. I support selling high on Nava if the Red Sox can find an offensive upgrade in LF through the trade market.
FanSinceBoggs said:
I love the idea of stacking the farm system, but I mean, would we really be comfortable with a lineup like this to start the year?
CF Bradley
RF Victorino
2B Pedroia
DH Ortiz
3B Middlebrooks
1B Carp
SS Bogaerts
LF Nava
C Ruiz/Hannigan
Even then we'd be thrusting Bradley into the leadoff hole right away, and we're losing the production of both Nava and Ellsbury.. I don't know, it just seems on the weak side to me.
Bradley's got a long, loopy uppercut swing, something like Salty. I expect him to continue to strike out a lot, like Salty. I know any comparison between those two guys is weird because they are completely different body types, but a swing is a swing. Another guy who has a swing that reminds me of Bradley, and is similar size guy is Gregor Blanco. I hope that's not his comp. What I'm trying to say is I'm surprised a top prospect like Bradley has come this far, and had excellent results in the minors with that swing. OTOH, there is Pedroia's swing and who would have believed his swinging from you know where on every one of his swings would have produced his hitting career.Red(s)HawksFan said:
Unless Boras has his mystery team waiting to outrageously pay Ellsbury, maybe we can keep him and let some other fanbase watch Bradley and hitting coaches try to get his swing more reasonable. That would be my preference (I know not so popular around here).
Devizier said:
We could always go even further and compare him to Mike Trout's 19-year-old stats. His OBP was only 1 point lower!
In all seriousness though, we still don't know what we have in JBJ. Based on his minor league numbers, particularly his plate discipline and defense, I would be willing to give him half a season to see what he can do at the major league level as a full-time starter. Why? Because those numbers indicate the possibility of a player who could help next year's team at an incredibly low cost. If he gets extended playing time and we find out that he can't handle the job, we have the ability the acquire someone in a trade that can at least provide adequate production. But based on the skillset we've seen in the minors, I'm willing to give him half a season to see what we actually have there before making any final decisions.
1) agreed, he's worth more to someone else than to a team that has a 21y.o. stud SS with no particular injury issuespdub said:
2) Chris Davis' OB% at different ages:
age 23: .284 (419 PAs)
age 24: .279 (136 PAs)
age 25: .305 (210 PAs)
age 26: .326 (562 PAs) (33 HRs)
This year: .370
Just sayin. Maybe WMB isn't Davis, but it sure would suck if he was, and the Sox became Texas in this analogy.
After some time, I keep coming back to contingencies. I'd like the Red Sox to have them.
If the Sox let Napoli go and Carp flops, they can turn to Nava. (They don't really have a contingency for Hassan if they go the platoon route).
If the Sox let Ellsbury go and Bradley flops, their built-in contingency is to weaken the outfield defense at two positions and dig into their outfield depth.
If the Sox let Saltalamacchia go, then their built-in contingency is to expand the roles of guys who are essentially backup catchers.
The Sox don't really have a say in Drew. He's gone. They can't give him the role he wants and probably not the money. So I hope they can get a good 3B/SS backup. Maybe that's Holt.
So in the end, I think Napoli is the lowest priority for the team among the free agents. I'd really like them to keep Ellsbury, because he's a top three player at his position and there are few imaginable scenarios where they can replace his production. The reason why you have cost controlled guys is so you can afford the Ellsburies of the world. I'd also like them to keep Saltalamacchia, but his production is more replaceable.
If the Sox let Napoli go and Carp flops, they can turn to Nava. (They don't really have a contingency for Hassan if they go the platoon route).
If the Sox let Ellsbury go and Bradley flops, their built-in contingency is to weaken the outfield defense at two positions and dig into their outfield depth.
If the Sox let Saltalamacchia go, then their built-in contingency is to expand the roles of guys who are essentially backup catchers.
The Sox don't really have a say in Drew. He's gone. They can't give him the role he wants and probably not the money. So I hope they can get a good 3B/SS backup. Maybe that's Holt.
So in the end, I think Napoli is the lowest priority for the team among the free agents. I'd really like them to keep Ellsbury, because he's a top three player at his position and there are few imaginable scenarios where they can replace his production. The reason why you have cost controlled guys is so you can afford the Ellsburies of the world. I'd also like them to keep Saltalamacchia, but his production is more replaceable.
Half a season still may not be enough though. I brought it up before, but Brandon Belt didn't show what he could do until his third season. Depends on how convinced the Sox are about Bradley. I think if Ellsbury walks, they'll give Bradley a year +. He is very young. It does make it a lot easier when prospects show what they can do early.Chuck Z said: