Game 2 Mia, goats

[Deathofthebambino]

In theory when Mac's back foot hits he needs to release it. That is a timing and anticipation pass. He was late on the one to Boutte that ended the game too.

I wish I knew how to screen shot the way @Gash Prex did above. The screen shot he has above is after his back foot planted, and at that point, Gesicki still is barely into his break.

He would have had to have released that ball less than 1 second after taking the snap.

If you pause the video at the moment Mac's back foot hits, Gesicki is still face up with his defender and 2-3 strides away from turning his head (and well short of the sticks), Henry is like 4-5 strides from turning around and the other receivers aren't turning and draped by defenders.

I think the last option on that play is Gesicki running an out short of the sticks and hoping he can gain the yardage after the catch, so asking Mac to literally look their first makes no sense to me. I'm guessing the All-22 film is going to show that Henry would have been a great play there, but Mac just didn't have time to wait for it to develop because he's got a man coming free up the middle before he even plants his back foot and well before he could throw it to 4 guys not looking his way.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@Cellar-Door almost every good QB has the team spending a lot on OL, WR, TE or a mix. And if it isn’t in $ it’s in draft picks. Even with Brady they invested a lot in the offense - usually a top OL to go with two very good pass catchers. Unless you get a guy who can live out of structure and is elite in every aspect physically as well as mentally you need to spend with your QB on pass catchers and OL. And even then we saw what happened to Mahomes vs the Bucs.

 

[luckiestman]

Tom E Curran:



Man. When put that way, it really does look like the wheels have come off the entire operation.

The two wins are Skylar Thompson and Colt McCoy. Two more losses and a win against Zach. So 3 & 9 with the walkoff punt. You get your shot at Zach again next week.

 

[Gash Prex]

I wish I knew how to screen shot the way @Gash Prex did above. The screen shot he has above is after his back foot planted, and at that point, Gesicki still is barely into his break.

He would have had to have released that ball less than 1 second after taking the snap.

If you pause the video at the moment Mac's back foot hits, Gesicki is still face up with his defender and 2-3 strides away from turning his head (and well short of the sticks), Henry is like 4-5 strides from turning around and the other receivers aren't turning and draped by defenders.

I think the last option on that play is Gesicki running an out short of the sticks and hoping he can gain the yardage after the catch, so asking Mac to literally look their first makes no sense to me. I'm guessing the All-22 film is going to show that Henry would have been a great play there, but Mac just didn't have time to wait for it to develop because he's got a man coming free up the middle before he even plants his back foot and well before he could throw it to 4 guys not looking his way.

Hopefully this is what you are looking for (I just use the windows snipping tool) - this is the frame just before his back foot hits.

 

[Cellar-Door]

@Cellar-Door almost every good QB has the team spending a lot on OL, WR, TE or a mix. And if it isn’t in $ it’s in draft picks. Even with Brady they invested a lot in the offense - usually a top OL to go with two very good pass catchers. Unless you get a guy who can live out of structure and is elite in every aspect physically as well as mentally you need to spend with your QB on pass catchers and OL. And even then we saw what happened to Mahomes vs the Bucs.

I mean, sure, you have to pay guys, I don't disagree, my point was more..... how many teams can pay a QB with Mac's weaknesses $30M a year and succeed. My guess is none. I don't think it's one or the other, I think it's both. They should be looking for their next QB, AND looking to put some of that money to use at OT, WR, etc. This is a strong WR free agent class (I see at least 5-10 guys I'd have taken over every WR available this past spring). OL... bit more shaky but some options.

 

[richgedman'sghost]

As has been enough poor decisions and total lack of arm strength to win even one of those games.

He's not good enough. I suspect that even if things were far better surrounding him he's still be very far from good enough. He's a poor man's early career Alex Smith. That's not a compliment. He's smart, but I think his brain is much better than his arm.

Alex Smith had a fine career overall. You don't think Mac could grow into a middle to late career Alex Smith?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I mean, sure, you have to pay guys, I don't disagree, my point was more..... how many teams can pay a QB with Mac's weaknesses $30M a year and succeed. My guess is none. I don't think it's one or the other, I think it's both. They should be looking for their next QB, AND looking to put some of that money to use at OT, WR, etc. This is a strong WR free agent class (I see at least 5-10 guys I'd have taken over every WR available this past spring). OL... bit more shaky but some options.

I've never been an expert on the cap, but according to this, with the increase in the cap next year, the Pats will have the 2nd most amount of money in 2024 to spend at over 85million.

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/07/2024-salary-cap-projections-for-all-32-teams

Burrow just got a massive deal and has weapons around him, same with Herbert.

Tua is scheduled to make 23mil next year, and then become an UFA in 2025, so Miami is going to have pay him and somehow they managed to fit Tyreek's 65mil cap hit in there over the next 2 years (jumps to 56mil in his final year). Jalen Hurts was given the largest contract in history not long ago, and Philly's team is loaded.

The salary cap/spending issue is so overblown, IMO. Bill just needs to spend correctly on offense at some point.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I mean, sure, you have to pay guys, I don't disagree, my point was more..... how many teams can pay a QB with Mac's weaknesses $30M a year and succeed. My guess is none. I don't think it's one or the other, I think it's both. They should be looking for their next QB, AND looking to put some of that money to use at OT, WR, etc. This is a strong WR free agent class (I see at least 5-10 guys I'd have taken over every WR available this past spring). OL... bit more shaky but some options.

I am not opposed to looking for the next guy but I have seen a lot of good process from Mac so far this year. No QB is having success with this shit. I think you can have success with Mac at $30mm if you draft and develop well on the offense.

If you want an elite QB prospect you either have to finish with an awful record or you need to give up multiple firsts. It's not easy. Should be another good QB class though.

 

[rodderick]

Alex Smith had a fine career overall. You don't think Mac could grow into a middle to late career Alex Smith?

He could, but in today's money that'd be a 43 million dollar a year player if he becomes that guy by the end of his rookie deal. Don't think it's worth it.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I am not opposed to looking for the next guy but I have seen a lot of good process from Mac so far this year. No QB is having success with this shit. I think you can have success with Mac at $30mm if you draft and develop well on the offense.

If you want an elite QB prospect you either have to finish with an awful record or you need to give up multiple firsts. It's not easy. Should be another good QB class though.

Yeah, I think I see less than you, I think there are things he's done better for sure... I also just don't see a guy who can make all the throws, and who is at his best when down multiple scores and the defense will give him easy short stuff. I'd rather have a guy with the tools, even if he's not an elite QB prospect than Mac, who I just don't see making certain throws. Always a risk of course, but to me I'd rather the higher ceiling. I was thinking it yesterday during the Commanders game when I found myself wondering... would I rather have Sam Howell who has a cannon but takes bad sacks or Mac who takes fewer sacks but just straight up can't make some of these throws. That's an extreme version of it, but there are a bunch of other guys who weren't top 5-7 picks who I look at and say... I think you have a better chance with that guy than Mac, maybe less polished, but the skillset is better. Mac to me seems like he isn't a guy who makes his passcatchers better, in fact I think he might hurt some of them with his lack of zip.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Bourne btw has to be a goat last night. Ran the wrong routes and couldn’t separate or make catches. Part of this is Bourne is a space player. You get him the ball in space and let him RAC. They aren’t getting space partially because no one respects the passes outside the numbers or their deep threats so everything is condensed. They also used him in part because they had no one else. Bourne looks good in a limited role. When you give him a bigger role he won’t succeed. He shouldn’t be a featured guy. More a rotational WR3/4 Z or slot.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

View attachment 71060

Hopefully this is what you are looking for (I just use the windows snipping tool) - this is the frame just before his back foot hits.

Yep, that's it. If Mac unloads that throw in the next frame or two, there is no way 4 of the 5 receivers are even turned when the ball is on him. Henry in the seam there and then cutting right was probably the read, except of course for that Dolphin helmet breaking right into Mac's face.

If Mac unloads there and somehow hits Gesicki just as his head is turning, and Gesicki didn't get the first, folks would have melted down about him throwing short of the sticks, but you can't get to Gesicki without the progression from Henry to Gesicki first, which is exactly what Mac did. Problem was he couldn't put anything on the ball because again, Dolphin guy. I mean Jesus, biggest play of the game and look at that offensive line. One guy beat like a rented mule, one guy doing absolutely nothing on a four man rush, and Mac's back foot hasn't even hit the ground yet.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Bourne btw has to be a goat last night. Ran the wrong routes and couldn’t separate or make catches. Part of this is Bourne is a space player. You get him the ball in space and let him RAC. They aren’t getting space partially because no one respects the passes outside the numbers or their deep threats so everything is condensed. They also used him in part because they had no one else. Bourne looks good in a limited role. When you give him a bigger role he won’t succeed. He shouldn’t be a featured guy. More a rotational WR3/4 Z or slot.

Bourne/Parker/Henry/Gesicki would be a perfectly fine compliment of receivers if they had a #1.

7 guys in coverage on the last play of the game covering those 4 guys is a recipe for failure.

 

[brendan f]

From the Lazar notes, and couldn't agree more with him that some of the issues start with O'Brien:

"Along with mostly dialing up spread runs, Mac only had three pass attempts from under center this week, with a 10.9 percent play-action rate on Sunday night. From this perspective, the Pats haven't given themselves a chance to effectively run the ball because they're not leaning enough on under-center run/play-action sequencing to get it going.
Due to their offensive personnel, the Pats also don't have the option to go "big" with the fullback out of regular formations anymore, which was their way to get the offense back on track after a rocky stretch under McDaniels. Yes, playing from behind presents another issue, but Stevenson is arguably the Patriots best offensive player, while play-action is arguably their most effective way to pass the ball – it's on O'Brien to find a way to scheme it up better on the ground."

 

[rodderick]

Bourne/Parker/Henry/Gesicki would be a perfectly fine compliment of receivers if they had a #1.

7 guys in coverage on the last play of the game covering those 4 guys is a recipe for failure.

If they had a true 1, I'd even venture to say that'd be among the best groups in the league. It'd be much better than Buffalo's, for instance. But that guy makes all the difference.

 

[Steve Dillard]

I mean Jesus, biggest play of the game and look at that offensive line. One guy beat like a rented mule, one guy doing absolutely nothing on a four man rush, and Mac's back foot hasn't even hit the ground yet.

Cole Strange. 3 down linemen, nose guy to Andrew' right. So Strange is staring down #2 coming rushing. Andrews is not sure whether he should get the guy lined up off him, so mostly blocks him but when #2 comes rushing (and Strange does nothing) Andrews' sort of tries to help there, meaning he gets neither guy, and Strange never touches any rusher (leaving him free for the lateral )
(at 12 minute mark) I don't know enough if this is just basic communication that can be cleaned up, or a lack of common sense.

View: https://youtu.be/Wvadap4QRSQ?t=723

 

[Deathofthebambino]

From the Lazar notes, and couldn't agree more with him that some of the issues start with O'Brien:

"Along with mostly dialing up spread runs, Mac only had three pass attempts from under center this week, with a 10.9 percent play-action rate on Sunday night. From this perspective, the Pats haven't given themselves a chance to effectively run the ball because they're not leaning enough on under-center run/play-action sequencing to get it going.
Due to their offensive personnel, the Pats also don't have the option to go "big" with the fullback out of regular formations anymore, which was their way to get the offense back on track after a rocky stretch under McDaniels. Yes, playing from behind presents another issue, but Stevenson is arguably the Patriots best offensive player, while play-action is arguably their most effective way to pass the ball – it's on O'Brien to find a way to scheme it up better on the ground."

I'm old enough to remember last year when Mac had to defend himself against claims he didn't like being under center. Now, we're back to talking about that again, and lack of play action.

When the simple explanation both times is they can't fucking block anyone long enough to put him under center and run play action:

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/mac-jones-no-preference-on-shotgun-vs-under-center/279206/

 

[rodderick]

I'm old enough to remember last year when Mac had to defend himself against claims he didn't like being under center. Now, we're back to talking about that again, and lack of play action.

When the simple explanation both times is they can't fucking block anyone long enough to put him under center and run play action:

https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/mac-jones-no-preference-on-shotgun-vs-under-center/279206/

I don't really expect him to come out and say "yeah, we don't run play action/under center stuff because I don't like it" if that were the case, though.

 

[Shelterdog]

I had them starting 0-4 and going 9-8 and I could see them even going 10-7 or 11-6 given that I had them going 0-2 against the Jets but the problem here is that even if they make the playoffs they won't be competitive because the games there will require more offense than they can consistently generate. Parker, Bourne, and Juju are not good enough to win in the big games. They can still probably beat a lot of bad to mid-level teams but we are who they thought they were as you state. You can’t live in the world of needing everything to be perfect on drives to score.

Honestly even though I think they could turn this around mentally I’m already starting to think more about next year and what they need to do to go from being competitive with teams to actually winning. It’s pretty simple but figuring it out will be hard: offensive tackles and a premiere pass catcher. If they don’t do that they will continue to fail.

I might seriously give some thought to hiring someone to help evaluate professional and college pass catchers too if that’s a thing.

edit: I also had them splitting with the Fins and Bills but maybe that was optimistic.

Really hard to figure out what to do next though. Because it's the NFL you need to keep filling up holes (like, safety is an issue next year if you don't re-sign Dugger, for example; center is becoming an issue fast; you need more good DTs).

If only there was a book on roster construction and team building to help me figure out analytically what the Pats should be doing. OH WAIT THE INCHES WE NEED IS ON SALE NOW.

View: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0CH2BG8ZP/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1


(it's a new book on the topic and awesome, although I'm only fifty pages in and don't know the secret to team building).

Anyhow regardless of whether you think BB should be given more rope or not building a contender in the NFL is very hard-careers are pretty short, you need a lot of good pieces, it's really really really hard to get a great QB and crazy hard to win without one. Fans like to think that blowing it up works but honestly, that's not some great option because you've got to be mind-bendingly awful to get the first pick in the draft when there's a sure thing available at QB. And I'm not sure that trades like the HIll and AJ Brown trade are going to work out in the end for the dolphins and AJ Brown--there is a ton of money on those deals and the cost in draft picks isn't small for either of them. And then if you don't love Mac, well, I get it but you do have to play someone at QB, letting Mac go and replacing him with Baker Mayfield or whatever for a year so you can stink get a great QB you're about as likely to end up with you being 6-10 picking fifth and grabbing a good tackle prospect (and we'd hate it and the owner loses money with empty stadiums and coaches and the staff get fired). Lets be real for a second, as much as some say Mac isn't the answer having a 3-15 team with Davis Mills isn't some much better answer either--that's an awful year of watching football for all of us.

Honestly the best answer I can come up with is you go with management you trust for the three to five years its likely to take to build up the team from where we are (and to be diligent caretakers after if they do find success-and BB is just about aged out of that in my book), you keep signing Mac but to relatively short money, and you try your best to execute in the draft and free agency and get the pass catchers first and help on the offensive line second with the caveat that if you are within striking distance of Mahomes 2.0 (maybe you love Sanders or JJ McCarthy, I don't know) you get them even if you still have Mac and it undermines him.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I don't really expect him to come out and say "yeah, we don't run play action/under center stuff because I don't like it" if that were the case, though.

If he didn't like play action/under center plays, the numbers probably wouldn't be as good as they are.

 

[rodderick]

If he didn't like play action/under center plays, the numbers probably wouldn't be as good as they are.

He has a 94.3 passer rating with play action and 87.2 rating without play action. That's not that huge a difference, and QB numbers with play action are just better as a rule. He's also been better from shotgun than under center.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Burrow isn't far off from Mac's physical profile. Rivers and Brees weren't far off either from him physically. Manning didn't have a cannon even in his earlier days. All of these guys had success because they all had strong supporting casts. There is this myth that a QB can elevate his team to some fictional zenith. It's bullshit. All of it. The cabinet minister, the... Oops hey who doesn't quote Predator at least once a day?

Look at the best passing offenses last year in order:
Mahomes - Kelce and a bunch of WRs like the Pats have.
Herbert - he had Williams and Allen for most of the year + Ekeler who is one of the few great RB pass catchers.
Brady - Evans and Godwin
Cousins - JJ and Hock
Burrow - Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and good enough TEs who could also block well.
Goff - Amon-Ra
Allen - Diggs
Geno - Lockett, DK
Lawrence - Kirk, Engram, and Zay Jones is decent too - also they have HCDP. He's a top offensive mind. Kirk is better than anyone they have. Lawrence is also 10th on this list.

All of these teams have better pass catchers than the Pats. Let's at least see what he can do with decent support before saying you can't afford him and weapons. Most of these teams are paying or drafted a top shelf or multiple top shelf pass catchers. Oh and that doesn't even get into OL this year. You can't, imo anyway, think he needs more than the average top 10 offensive QB to succeed if he has nowhere near their offensive supports.

Also the list is missing Tua who if healthy will be up there. Even freaking Sam Howell has Dotson and Scary Terry! Can we give Mac anyone like that?

 

[rodderick]

Burrow isn't far off from Mac's physical profile. Rivers and Brees weren't far off either from him physically. Manning didn't have a cannon even in his earlier days. All of these guys had success because they all had strong supporting casts. There is this myth that a QB can elevate his team to some fictional zenith. It's bullshit. All of it. The cabinet minister, the... Oops hey who doesn't quote Predator at least once a day?

Look at the best passing offenses last year in order:
Mahomes - Kelce and a bunch of WRs like the Pats have.
Herbert - he had Williams and Allen for most of the year + Ekeler who is one of the few great RB pass catchers.
Brady - Evans and Godwin
Cousins - JJ and Hock
Burrow - Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and good enough TEs who could also block well.
Goff - Amon-Ra
Allen - Diggs
Geno - Lockett, DK
Lawrence - Kirk, Engram, and Zay Jones is decent too - also they have HCDP. He's a top offensive mind. Kirk is better than anyone they have. Lawrence is also 10th on this list.

All of these teams have better pass catchers than the Pats. Let's at least see what he can do with decent support before saying you can't afford him and weapons. Most of these teams are paying or drafted a top shelf or multiple top shelf pass catchers. Oh and that doesn't even get into OL this year. You can't, imo anyway, think he needs more than the average top 10 offensive QB to succeed if he has nowhere near their offensive supports.

Also the list is missing Tua who if healthy will be up there. Even freaking Sam Howell has Dotson and Scary Terry! Can we give Mac anyone like that?

Davis Mills also has a similar profile and is cheaper, should the Pats just grab him and dump Mac for next year, then? I mean, as long as the QB doesn't really matter.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Davis Mills also has a similar profile and is cheaper, should the Pats just grab him and dump Mac for next year, then? I mean, as long as the QB doesn't really matter.

Wait are you getting from what I wrote that I don't think the QB matters?

 

[rodderick]

Wait are you getting from what I wrote that I don't think the QB matters?

I mean "All of these guys had success because they all had strong supporting casts. There is this myth that a QB can elevate his team to some fictional zenith. It's bullshit. All of it." seems pretty close to saying the QB is as good as the supporting cast?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Really hard to figure out what to do next though. Because it's the NFL you need to keep filling up holes (like, safety is an issue next year if you don't re-sign Dugger, for example; center is becoming an issue fast; you need more good DTs).

If only there was a book on roster construction and team building to help me figure out analytically what the Pats should be doing. OH WAIT THE INCHES WE NEED IS ON SALE NOW.

View: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0CH2BG8ZP/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1


(it's a new book on the topic and awesome, although I'm only fifty pages in and don't know the secret to team building).

Anyhow regardless of whether you think BB should be given more rope or not building a contender in the NFL is very hard-careers are pretty short, you need a lot of good pieces, it's really really really hard to get a great QB and crazy hard to win without one. Fans like to think that blowing it up works but honestly, that's not some great option because you've got to be mind-bendingly awful to get the first pick in the draft when there's a sure thing available at QB. And I'm not sure that trades like the HIll and AJ Brown trade are going to work out in the end for the dolphins and AJ Brown--there is a ton of money on those deals and the cost in draft picks isn't small for either of them. And then if you don't love Mac, well, I get it but you do have to play someone at QB, letting Mac go and replacing him with Baker Mayfield or whatever for a year so you can stink get a great QB you're about as likely to end up with you being 6-10 picking fifth and grabbing a good tackle prospect (and we'd hate it and the owner loses money with empty stadiums and coaches and the staff get fired). Lets be real for a second, as much as some say Mac isn't the answer having a 3-15 team with Davis Mills isn't some much better answer either--that's an awful year of watching football for all of us.

Honestly the best answer I can come up with is you go with management you trust for the three to five years its likely to take to build up the team from where we are (and to be diligent caretakers after if they do find success-and BB is just about aged out of that in my book), you keep signing Mac but to relatively short money, and you try your best to execute in the draft and free agency and get the pass catchers first and help on the offensive line second with the caveat that if you are within striking distance of Mahomes 2.0 (maybe you love Sanders or JJ McCarthy, I don't know) you get them even if you still have Mac and it undermines him.

I would argue that Philly making the Super Bowl last year, and being one of the heavy favorites to represent the NFC again is probably evidence that the AJ Brown move worked for them. I mean, the year before he got there, Hurts was 8-7, threw for 3,100 yards, 16tds, 9 picks and had a rating of 87.2. Then AJ Brown shows up and he goes 14-1 with 3,700 yards, 22tds and 6ints and a 101.5 rating and a trip to the SB. The downstream effect was that Smith went from a guy with 64/916/5 to 95/1196/7, and Miles Sanders went from 62.8 rushing yards per game and 0 touchdowns to 74.6ypg and 11 touchdowns.

It's harder to know what Miami would have accomplished last year due to Tua's injuries, but in 12 games before Tyreek Hill the season before, he went 7-5 with 2,650 yards, 16tds, 10 ints and a rating of 90.1. Add Hill to the mix, and in 13 games, he went 8-5 with 3,500 yards, 25tds, 8ints and a 105.5 rating. Those numbers would have been even better if he wasn't allowed to play his last game completely concussed against Green Bay and throw 3 interceptions. Like DaVonta Smith in Philly, when Hill got introduced to the mix, Waddle went from a 104/1,015/6td rookie year to 75/1,356/8 second season, nearly doubling his yards per reception because you can't cover him one on one.

If you have skill position weapons and a great offensive line, you could let Mac walk and replace him with just about anyone and be successful, at least that's what Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan told me.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

He has a 94.3 passer rating with play action and 87.2 rating without play action. That's not that huge a difference, and QB numbers with play action are just better as a rule. He's also been better from shotgun than under center.

That difference in rating is basically Mac's difference in rating between year one when they went 10-7 and made the playoffs, and last year.

 

[rodderick]

That difference in rating is basically Mac's difference in rating between year one when they went 10-7 and made the playoffs, and last year.

2021 only: play action 97.8, non-play action, 91.1. About the same difference.

 

[SMU_Sox]

If A then B. Not if B then A. Good pocket passers with Mac's physical traits had good supporting casts. Not every QB with Mac's physical traits can succeed with a good supporting cast. The reason there is mental. You need near elite mental traits with mediocre physical tools. Not every weak-armed thrower has those traits. Those guys had their success with good to great supporting casts. Even Brady had damn good weapons most years and when he didn't his game suffered. People thought he was done after 2019. I am saying a good QB with those physical traits still needs a good supporting cast to have a lot of success. What good pocket passer can survive without weapons and an OL?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

2021 only: play action 97.8, non-play action, 91.1. About the same difference.

Yep, and I'm just pushing back on the notion that the Pats aren't running play action because Mac isn't good at it, or doesn't like it. That's nonsense. He's fine at it, the guys in front of him can't execute it.

 

[rodderick]

If A then B. Not if B then A. Good pocket passers with Mac's physical traits had good supporting casts. Not every QB with Mac's physical traits can succeed with a good supporting cast. The reason there is mental. You need near elite mental traits with mediocre physical tools. Not every weak-armed thrower has those traits. Those guys had their success with good to great supporting casts. Even Brady had damn good weapons most years and when he didn't his game suffered. People thought he was done after 2019. I am saying a good QB with those physical traits still needs a good supporting cast to have a lot of success. What good pocket passer can survive without weapons and an OL?

2019 was about more than merely a "lack of weapons", and even then what he had to work with was considerably worse by orders of magnitude than what they have now, especially considering Edelman was totally banged up and a shell of himself, but I digress. With Tom Brady an "unsuccessful season without weapons" meant winning 12 games and probably reaching the Conference Championship, with Mac Jones it means going 7-10. There are a lot more levels to this than you made it seem. Of course he needs a good supporting cast, he just needs it more than Peyton Manning did. I don't think that's a controversial take.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Honestly Brady elevated his offensive-line more than bad receivers. Brady didn't have success with guys who stunk here and elsewhere. I mean look at his final 11 games here after AB and Josh Gordon: HT Zeej: 59.8% completion percent, 240 yds/g, 14 TDs 6 INT, and an 83.6 rating. Good QBs and receivers can elevate each other but it doesn't usually work for WRs who aren't very good. Look at some of the deep balls to Bourne. Even when they were on target he still can't separate or bring it in.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

From the Lazar notes, and couldn't agree more with him that some of the issues start with O'Brien:

"Along with mostly dialing up spread runs, Mac only had three pass attempts from under center this week, with a 10.9 percent play-action rate on Sunday night. From this perspective, the Pats haven't given themselves a chance to effectively run the ball because they're not leaning enough on under-center run/play-action sequencing to get it going.
Due to their offensive personnel, the Pats also don't have the option to go "big" with the fullback out of regular formations anymore, which was their way to get the offense back on track after a rocky stretch under McDaniels. Yes, playing from behind presents another issue, but Stevenson is arguably the Patriots best offensive player, while play-action is arguably their most effective way to pass the ball – it's on O'Brien to find a way to scheme it up better on the ground."

I'm sorry, but why does any team care if the Patriots run right now? Go ahead and run all day, we're still not falling for play action because you can't do anything else. The Patriots aren't going to win with 7 minute drives running the ball and scoring 17 points a game.

 

[SMU_Sox]

2019 was about more than merely a "lack of weapons", and even then what he had to work with was considerably worse by orders of magnitude than what they have now, especially considering Edelman was totally banged up and a shell of himself, but I digress. With Tom Brady an "unsuccessful season without weapons" meant winning 12 games and probably reaching the Conference Championship, with Mac Jones it means going 7-10. There are a lot more levels to this than you made it seem. Of course he needs a good supporting cast, he just needs it more than Peyton Manning did. I don't think that's a controversial take.

They won a lot in 2019 due to playing an easy schedule. Tom was also a vet and a HoFer. Their offense fell apart at the end of the season and they stunk in the playoffs.

Of course there are more levels. This is nuanced. But it is also sometimes really obvious. If you give any QB a shit line and shitty weapons they fail.

Sure HoFers can succeed with less but Manning played with usually an elite offense. Brady played with top shelf playmakers and usually a top 10 OL from 2001 to 2017 or 2018. It just seems frustrating to me that Mac has a bottom 6th of the league weapons, a bottom 7-8 line the way they are playing, and we're judging him on how much he needs to succeed. You don't know and I don't know but we both know this group right now is not getting it done and they aren't even close to middling.

 

[j44thor]

I was all for Gonzalez as the #1 pick and Keion White was great value in the second but after loading up on D NE needed to spend some draft capital on offense. I think Mapu was a luxury they didn't need and don't get me started about trading up to draft a K in the 4th. Josh Downs would have been a great fit in the 3rd and Roschon Johnson would have given you a Rham clone in the 4th making the corpse of Zeke unnecessary.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

2019 was about more than merely a "lack of weapons", and even then what he had to work with was considerably worse by orders of magnitude than what they have now, especially considering Edelman was totally banged up and a shell of himself, but I digress. With Tom Brady an "unsuccessful season without weapons" meant winning 12 games and probably reaching the Conference Championship, with Mac Jones it means going 7-10. There are a lot more levels to this than you made it seem. Of course he needs a good supporting cast, he just needs it more than Peyton Manning did. I don't think that's a controversial take.

Edelman played all 16 games and caught 100 passes for over 1,100 yards. White and Burkhead combined for 99 more catches for just under 1,000 yards (like 9.5 yards per reception from your backs is fantastic on that many catches). And Scarnecchia was still here coaching up the offensive line.

I would argue that they were better at the skill positions at the top end, worse on the lower end, and better on the offensive line. I've also said for years that I believe Tom Brady didn't finish his career as a Patriot, not because he was mad at BB, not over money, it's because he knew they had fucking nothing for him to work with and if the team wasn't good enough to get to a SB, he didn't want to deal with it.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Also, Brady went 6-5 in those last games in 2019. And yeah Mac has better pass catchers but Brady had a better OL. The overall point is that even the best pocket passers who won in structure won with good support. Comparing the two and the two situations is just to illustrate the much more important larger point and I don't want to derail it any more than pointing out some of those issues and how they overlap.

I mean let's dig deeper and get more nuanced. Why does this matter? Well winning in structure requires guys to be on the same page, in the right place, in the right time, can get yards after the catch if a shorter and/or man-beater, make hard catches, and run routes well enough to get separation. Brady and Manning were in sync with their best receivers and they elevated each other's play.

Which one of Mac's receivers does the above well? Some guys have elements of that. Parker can be in the right place and the right time but doesn't separate and doesn't consistently win vs better coverage. He can make harder catches. His RAC is ok.

Bourne is inconsistent catching the ball, is not on the same page as Mac, often runs the wrong route, doesn't get separation, but can get yards after the catch. He can also do the other skills... sometimes. Not enough to be better than a rotational player.

Do we really need to go on? If we want to look at layers let's look at tape and why players are failing!

 

[rodderick]

Edelman played all 16 games and caught 100 passes for over 1,100 yards. White and Burkhead combined for 99 more catches for just under 1,000 yards (like 9.5 yards per reception from your backs is fantastic on that many catches). And Scarnecchia was still here coaching up the offensive line.

I would argue that they were better at the skill positions at the top end, worse on the lower end, and better on the offensive line. I've also said for years that I believe Tom Brady didn't finish his career as a Patriot, not because he was mad at BB, not over money, it's because he knew they had fucking nothing for him to work with and if the team wasn't good enough to get to a SB, he didn't want to deal with it.

I don't care how many catches and yards Edelman had, he was banged up all year, basically sacrificed his career in order to be available for a team that had no one to throw the ball to. There's no way you can look at him in 2019 and think he was the player he was in, say, 2015. He got a million targets because it was either him or N'Keal Harry, the ghost of Mohamed Sanu, Ryan Izzo or Matt Lacosse getting the ball.

I'm not arguing with any of you that Mac needs better weapons or that even the best of the best QBs perform better with better weapons, it just seems as if we're inching somewhat close to the theater of the absurd with the Brady comparisons to say "not even Brady could do it with these guys" or something of the sort. And he could, because he did with worse. In fact it'd do us a ton of good to just not bring Brady up in relation to Mac Jones in any way whatsoever. Be it to say "Brady would have won that game" or to talk about how he would've struggled with the guys Mac has or whatever.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I don't care how many catches and yards Edelman had, he was banged up all year, basically sacrificed his career in order to be available for a team that had no one to throw the ball to. There's no way you can look at him in 2019 and think he was the player he was in, say, 2015. He got a million targets because it was either him or N'Keal Harry, the ghost of Mohamed Sanu, Ryan Izzo or Matt Lacosse getting the ball.

I'm not arguing with any of you that Mac needs better weapons or that even the best of the best QBs perform better with better weapons, it just seems as if we're inching somewhat close to the theater of the absurd with the Brady comparisons to say "not even Brady could do it with these guys" or something of the sort. And he could, because he did with worse.

Yeah, no I totally respect Jules for what he did. Love the guy. Respectfully is this a response to me and I am missing something?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I don't care how many catches and yards Edelman had, he was banged up all year, basically sacrificed his career in order to be available for a team that had no one to throw the ball to. There's no way you can look at him in 2019 and think he was the player he was in, say, 2015. He got a million targets because it was either him or N'Keal Harry, the ghost of Mohamed Sanu, Ryan Izzo or Matt Lacosse getting the ball.

Oh, I don't disagree that Edelman was on the downswing.

I just personally think that Edelman at 75% is better, by leaps and bounds, than anyone currently catching balls for the New England Patriots. I might even say a 50% Edelman is better. Shit, Pop Douglas might be the best of the bunch in today's game, and alas, he got 6 snaps. He was the only guy not named Hunter Henry who I saw last night getting any kind of separation, and Henry was getting his separation because they know he's going to catch it and fall down short of the sticks. 6 catches last night, 4 happened on first down, and they went for 9, 8, 9 and 7 yards, all short of the line to gain (his other two were the 13 yard catch on 2nd and 7 and the touchdown from 6 yards).

That's our playmaker in open space right now.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Hmm... I don't think he did it with a worse OL and pass catchers situation. We should probably investigate and compare. Right now I think Mac is getting a bottom 6-7 performance from both sub-units and while I think the OL can rebound and the pass catchers might be able to get better they still are a bottom 6-7 unit. Did Brady ever have success with those kinds of issues? Not being snarky here - think it is a worthwhile look.

 

[Shelterdog]

I would argue that Philly making the Super Bowl last year, and being one of the heavy favorites to represent the NFC again is probably evidence that the AJ Brown move worked for them. I mean, the year before he got there, Hurts was 8-7, threw for 3,100 yards, 16tds, 9 picks and had a rating of 87.2. Then AJ Brown shows up and he goes 14-1 with 3,700 yards, 22tds and 6ints and a 101.5 rating and a trip to the SB. The downstream effect was that Smith went from a guy with 64/916/5 to 95/1196/7, and Miles Sanders went from 62.8 rushing yards per game and 0 touchdowns to 74.6ypg and 11 touchdowns.

It's harder to know what Miami would have accomplished last year due to Tua's injuries, but in 12 games before Tyreek Hill the season before, he went 7-5 with 2,650 yards, 16tds, 10 ints and a rating of 90.1. Add Hill to the mix, and in 13 games, he went 8-5 with 3,500 yards, 25tds, 8ints and a 105.5 rating. Those numbers would have been even better if he wasn't allowed to play his last game completely concussed against Green Bay and throw 3 interceptions. Like DaVonta Smith in Philly, when Hill got introduced to the mix, Waddle went from a 104/1,015/6td rookie year to 75/1,356/8 second season, nearly doubling his yards per reception because you can't cover him one on one.

If you have skill position weapons and a great offensive line, you could let Mac walk and replace him with just about anyone and be successful, at least that's what Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan told me.

The point is that every deal has costs and benefits and the benefits of the Brown and Hill deals are frontloaded--you're getting a top five receivers in the NFL for two years relatively cheap-and the costs are backloaded because the salaries go way up, the picks you traded away might be getting better and you'll wish you had them more, etc. You get to and win a superbowl, maybe it doesn't matter what the cost is. But I guaranty you if in three years a slow bad Hill is on the books for 30 million bucks they'll be flipping tables at Sons of Jim Jensen.

 

[sodenj5]

The point is that every deal has costs and benefits and the benefits of the Brown and Hill deals are frontloaded--you're getting a top five receivers in the NFL for two years relatively cheap-and the costs are backloaded because the salaries go way up, the picks you traded away might be getting better and you'll wish you had them more, etc.

Tyreek Hill was traded away for what primarily became, ironically enough, Cole Strange and Tyquan Thornton. NE traded with KC twice in the slots that Miami gave up for Tyreek. There’s a few late round picks from the 2023 draft sprinkled in as well.

Would I trade Tyreek and salary cap relief for Cole Strange and Tyquan Thornton? That’s a no. Draft picks absolutely have value, but you’re also turning in your lottery ticket for a proven commodity.

I think it’s also very dependent on where your team’s life cycle is.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I am not sure if any journalist covered this or it just came from the slack channel. Here is an example of Mac elevating a receiver. Against the Eagles he used a motion to signal I forgot who into a curl and I can't tell his number on the all-22. It was not part of the play but an adjustment he made because he saw what the Eagles were doing pre-snap on D and wanted to get space for Bourne's TD route. The curl on the right side of the play kept the post safety away from the area he had to throw it into for Bourne coming in from the left. Getting him to curl there was the exact route they needed from mystery receiver to get Bourne a perfect look for a TD.

 

[Seels]

I only saw the first half before I fell asleep, but as time goes on it seems more and more puzzling that they let Thuney walk and traded Mason. The OL has been the problem ever since. I've never been a fan of the Strange pick, and the Pats were in position to draft Tyler Smith, who has been much better to this point. Maybe it all works out, but I can't help but wonder how much different this team is if they keep either Mason or Thuney and use that Strange pick elsewhere.

 

[Shelterdog]

Tyreek Hill was traded away for what primarily became, ironically enough, Cole Strange and Tyquan Thornton. NE traded with KC twice in the slots that Miami gave up for Tyreek. There’s a few late round picks from the 2023 draft sprinkled in as well.

Would I trade Tyreek and salary cap relief for Cole Strange and Tyquan Thornton? That’s a no. Draft picks absolutely have value, but you’re also turning in your lottery ticket for a proven commodity.

I think it’s also very dependent on where your team’s life cycle is.

Where the team is in the life cycle is definitely a major factor. Also presumably another team doesn't hit two hits off the bong and see what will happen if they pretend it's the third round in the first round and the sixth round in the second and they just go chalk and draft karlaftis and pickens, for example.

 

[Shelterdog]

I only saw the first half before I fell asleep, but as time goes on it seems more and more puzzling that they let Thuney walk and traded Mason. The OL has been the problem ever since. I've never been a fan of the Strange pick, and the Pats were in position to draft Tyler Smith, who has been much better to this point. Maybe it all works out, but I can't help but wonder how much different this team is if they keep either Mason or Thuney and use that Strange pick elsewhere.

Mason's really not that good any more and Tyler SMith was a major health red flag that most of the league apparently had off their boards. Of course Strange has a bad case of "bad at footballitis" so the point is a solid one. I personally would have kept Thuney--I know it was expensive but I'd always rather the team overpaid their own guys rather than overpay people on another team who have a transition risk and are far less likely to work out.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

But had they kept Thuney, they may not have been able to land Agholor and Jonnu. Ugh.

 

[brendan f]

I'm sorry, but why does any team care if the Patriots run right now? Go ahead and run all day, we're still not falling for play action because you can't do anything else. The Patriots aren't going to win with 7 minute drives running the ball and scoring 17 points a game.

The data doesn't support your argument. It may seem counterintuitive, but there isn't any correlation between how often or how well you run the ball to how successful a play action attempt is. It's a good idea because it generates more yards/attempt. In short, teams should use it because it works.

 

[j44thor]

The data doesn't support your argument. It may seem counterintuitive, but there isn't any correlation between how often or how well you run the ball to how successful a play action attempt is. It's a good idea because it generates more yards/attempt. In short, teams should use it because it works.

But you do need to block for PA to have a chance to work as the QB needs to take a deeper drop and hold the ball a bit longer while you try to suck in the LBs to hit a TE in the seam or WR running a post. Problem is the OL can't block a standard 4 man rush so PA is likely to end in a big sack.