All of those guys were infinitely better route runners. Most of those guys if not slots beat press. Who cares what your speed is or athletic profile is if you can't actually play. Making incredible contested catches while getting no separation vs shitty Pac-12 corners is not a winning formula. His RAC also showcased some horrible defenses than couldn't tackle and/or bad coverage and positioning. I was new to start draft scouting back then but I didn't even mention Harry as someone I wanted in that class because I didn't think they would add a guy like him. Consensus was a lot higher on Harry than my own take. Harry was going to have to improve to succeed in the NFL and he never did.
Game 2 Mia, goats
- Thread starter AB in DC
- Start date
I guess I can buy that Kirk is marginally better than their best receiver, the rest of those guys are the same caliber of player. You're right about the difference in skill sets and athleticism, but no one was touting Zay Jones and Evan Engram as anything other than "meh" receivers at best before they got to Jacksonville. I also think if the Patriots acquired Christian Kirk not one living soul would be satisfied with him as the guy to slap at the top of the depth chart.
Edit: but I agree, they are a bottom 10 group and Bill could and should do a lot better at the position. I just don't think it's "can't win with these cats" bad. It's can't score in the 30s consistently bad, it's Mac won't get Pro-Bowl votes bad, it's not an impediment to have a competent offense. Now, the OL may very well be at this point.
Edit: but I agree, they are a bottom 10 group and Bill could and should do a lot better at the position. I just don't think it's "can't win with these cats" bad. It's can't score in the 30s consistently bad, it's Mac won't get Pro-Bowl votes bad, it's not an impediment to have a competent offense. Now, the OL may very well be at this point.
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Who was touting Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, JuJu, Parker as anything other than 'meh' receivers before they got to New England?
And I like Bourne. I think if you have a guy like Kirk and a guy like Bourne on the field together with tight ends like Henry/Gesicki that can at least be a semi-threat in the passing game, you can work with that. Kirk creates gravity just by virtue of his ability to get open extremely quick.
You can't work with a guy like Bourne as your #1, and guys like JuJu/Parker as your #2/#3.
No one? Which is why my argument is "this group and that group aren't fundamentally different" and not "this group is better". Though I do believe at the time of the Juju signing there were people who put him on a higher level than those other guys.
LOL and on cue - this will change for the Bengals, probably:
https://x.com/PFF_Moo/status/1704088966029246608?s=20
Patriots pass catchers have been worst in the league when passes have not been intercepted.
Edit: this probably changes for the Eagles, Chiefs when Kelce is fully recovered, and maybe the Steelers? Bengals also as mentioned should recover here.
https://x.com/PFF_Moo/status/1704088966029246608?s=20
Patriots pass catchers have been worst in the league when passes have not been intercepted.
Edit: this probably changes for the Eagles, Chiefs when Kelce is fully recovered, and maybe the Steelers? Bengals also as mentioned should recover here.
A list of "effectiveness" that has the GB receiving crew as 3rd. Its noise. The NFL product is terrible through week 2 so who knows what teams are or aren't at this point. All of these top tier players not practicing or not playing the pre-season is REALLY showing.
"Over the first two weeks, there are three offenses in the NFL that generated negative EPA on plays that were actually going pretty well for the offense (a target happened and it wasn't intercepted)."
So per play rate of EPA passing on throws that were not picked off. Some noise here but this helps you understand whose weapons are paying off and whose are not. It also can be influenced by scheme, QB accuracy, etc. Typically if a team isn't generating much EPA on passes that aren't completed they are having scheme or talent issues or both.
“ Over the first two weeks, there are three offenses in the NFL that generated negative EPA on plays that were actually going pretty well for the offense (a target happened and it wasn't intercepted). Can't have that.”
IE fumbling on a completed pass (twice) or bad plays from the playmakers
Why is that stat attributed solely to the WRs? It's a per pass play stat, does it take into account poor throws and bad decisions from the QB?
or nothing plays, your EPA after a very short or negative gain is lower than it was before. So things like those 1 yard WR screens are likely negative EPA plays.
It isn't, it takes into account bad throws (not intercepted) also RB and TE passes. It's literally every pass that wasn't intercepted or thrown away.
So they've thrown a ton of those WR screens that have generated literally nothing or even negative yards. Those plays are designed and called by BOB. I understand the reason for them, but when Mac takes the snap and takes a tenth of a second to throw the ball, and the play doesn't get blocked, that counts as a completion (yay for Mac!) but also counts as a very bad pass play that negatively impacts his yds/attempt. And they've done a ton of them. Not surprising that his yds/attempt number is way way down. Also doesn't help that he hasn't really hit on any huge pass plays yet (either deep balls or on short passes that turn into 60 yard plays).
that type of chart might be interesting in a seasons worth of data but it looks fairly random to me at this point
Totally. Some of the best WR groups are in Philly and Cincy, while nobody really loves Green Bay's WR corps or Denver's. SSS for sure.
Does this mean Tua by himself has negative EPA/Play? Because the Dolphins EPA/dropback is lower than the receiver number. I don't love these attempts at disassociating QB/receiver performance through EPA, I think it's way too granular for those stats to represent the reality. For that sort of thing I'd rather trust the film analysts or even next gen stats.
thanks for the explanations y'all. based on what you're saying I'm thinking the graph is showing the oddities of their measurement system plus noise rather than whatever they claim it shows.
It's also not meant to be predictive. It's where things are at the moment.
Jordan Love has 6td's and 0 interceptions, but is only completing 55% of his passes. There's also the fact they've played Atlanta and Chicago, not exactly a murderer's row of secondaries.
I don't really see anyone else in that top 7 that surprises me and where I think they can't stay there. Adams in Vegas is off to a good start again, obviously Tua's weapons, Purdy with the weapons in San Fran, Michael Thomas looks healthy again and Olave is great, Detroit/Minnesota are always in shootouts....
So I was looking at success rate...
Targets to RBs.... 35% success rate, 0 TD, 1 FMBL
Targets to WRs... 44.4% success rate, 2TD 1FMBL
Targets to TEs.....77.3% success rate 2TF 0FMBL
So as units... the RBs are a trainwreck, the WRs are bad and the TEs are excellent.
No reason to break down TE or RB, all 3 RBs have brought basically nothing in the pass game, both TEs have been good.
Now WR.....
Bourne has both TDs however.... 35% success rate on a team high (by a ton) 20 targets
Juju... 54% success rate
Douglas 56% success rate (but a fumble)
Boutte... 0% (caught none of his 4 targets)
Parker... 63% success rate.
If you want a positive, it's that Parker had a nice first game back, and he's providing value.
If you want a negative... our passing game is basically 2 TEs and a big bodied WR.
Also, Bourne has a huge role, but not producing like you would want from a guy averaging 10 targets a game.
Targets to RBs.... 35% success rate, 0 TD, 1 FMBL
Targets to WRs... 44.4% success rate, 2TD 1FMBL
Targets to TEs.....77.3% success rate 2TF 0FMBL
So as units... the RBs are a trainwreck, the WRs are bad and the TEs are excellent.
No reason to break down TE or RB, all 3 RBs have brought basically nothing in the pass game, both TEs have been good.
Now WR.....
Bourne has both TDs however.... 35% success rate on a team high (by a ton) 20 targets
Juju... 54% success rate
Douglas 56% success rate (but a fumble)
Boutte... 0% (caught none of his 4 targets)
Parker... 63% success rate.
If you want a positive, it's that Parker had a nice first game back, and he's providing value.
If you want a negative... our passing game is basically 2 TEs and a big bodied WR.
Also, Bourne has a huge role, but not producing like you would want from a guy averaging 10 targets a game.
I think by the end of the season we'll have figure out why Bourne was featured a lot less in the passing game than fans thought he should be by two different coaching staffs.
It isn't a receiver number, it's a total pass game number. And the QB one would only be higher if he were bringing value with his legs, since the only passing events that are in the QB EPA that aren't in this one are sacks, throw-aways and INTs.
Oh, okay. Now I got it. It's basically passing EPA/Play on targets that didn't result in an interception. So not really a ton to discern in terms of specifically the pass catchers.
Correct. I was at the last regular season game against a terrible Dolphins team.
Brady's line against the Titans was Mac Jones-esque:
| 20/37 | 209 yards | 1 pick |
He gets more right than wrong on defense, that's for damned sure.
But someone needs to remind him that he can coach a fucking defense with me out there, and he doesn't need to use all of his draft capital there, and when he does go offense, he needs someone else to pick for him, IMO.
Brady has played a lonnnnnng time, and played in a lot of games (335 in the regular season). Out of those 335, he's had 89 of them where his passer rating for that game has been below 80. (i.e., really bad)
That's 26.6%. So one out of every four has been, statistically, pretty awful. We know that numbers don't always tell the story so some of those bad passer rating games weren't actually bad QB play, just as some of the good statistical games have been meh QB play. Over a sample size as large as his, that stuff tends to even out.
But more than one in four of Tom F-ing Brady's regular season games have been, frankly, poor statistical performances.
Of those 89, 41 of them were wins. So 41-48 in those games where Brady was bad statistically.
It happens to everyone. A LOT.
80 was a lot different in 2001 than it was in 2022
Starting in 2001, league-wide rating:
78.5
80.4
78.3
82.8
80.1
80.4
----- Manning rules
82.6
83.2
83.0
84.1
84.3
85.6
86.0
88.9
90.2
89.3
86.9
92.9
90.4
93.6
90.8
89.1
89.3
True, but the reverse is also true. A 95 rating in 2021 is a lot different than it used to be, so some of his good statistical games in the latter stages of his career are meh by those contemporary standards.
On that note, I've always wanted a passer rating + stat that works like ERA+ or OPS+ in baseball metrics. A passer rating stat that is modified to take into account the era in which the guy played in.
Football reference already has it, it's called "Rate+." Brady led the NFL twice in 2007 with a 148 and in 2010 with a 130. You can find it on their individual player page, far right, under the "Adjusted passing" section.
Oh sweet, thanks. I never found that on their main page, but didn't think to look under the "adjusted passing" heading. Good find. I appreciate that.
The next step would be to take into account their home fields. Like...as we all famously know, Brady at one point had a career passer rating lower than Peyton Manning, even though Brady had a higher passer rating than Manning both outdoors AND indoors.
Which led some people to wonder how on EARTH that was mathematically possible, until it was explained to them how the vast, vast majority of games Brady played were outdoors, while Manning played the majority of his games indoors (a much more welcoming passing environment).
So great stat came across my twitter.....
Who is 2nd in the league only to Tyreek Hill in intended air yards........
Kendrick Bourne.
Of course Hill has turned in the 3rd most actual yards, and a 15.9 Y/T.
Bourne.... 47th most actual yards and a 9.3 Y/T
Who is 2nd in the league only to Tyreek Hill in intended air yards........
Kendrick Bourne.
Of course Hill has turned in the 3rd most actual yards, and a 15.9 Y/T.
Bourne.... 47th most actual yards and a 9.3 Y/T
Bourne to me always seemed like a dangerous receiver with the ball in his hands in space, I don't know why they have him as the designated shot guy. Might speak to the overall lack of speed on offense, especially on the perimeter.
He went to a small school but he was definitely on radars after his pro day. Also, as much as fans want to use him as an example of a great draft pick - he's a safety who is less than good when going away from the line of scrimmage. That is hardly ideal in 2023. The promise of his return game has amounted to nada so overall I'd say he's fine.
Based on that stat, Pats QB in the post-Gronk ERA have put up the following Rate+
2019: 94
2020: 88
2021: 101
2022: 91
2023: 99
Yep, and Tua was 94, 98 before getting Hill and Waddle. Justin Herbert has been 109, 108 and 105 (he's 115 this year through 2 games, both losses). Jalen Hurts pre-Brown/Smith was 81, 94. Josh Allen pre-Diggs was 70, 91. Aaron Rodgers last year after losing Adams was 102 (after leading the NFL at 140, 128 the prior 2 seasons). Joe Burrow was a 98 as a rookie pre-Chase. Lamar Jackson was 94 and 102 the past 2 seasons. Lawrence was 73 as a rookie and 108 last year (94 this year).
How much do skill position guys matter:
Brock Purdy was 128 last season, and is 116 this season. Jimmy G. was 121 last year and 110 in the year before that, and they let him walk for Mr. Irrelevant. He's at 100 through 2 games in Vegas. Geno as a starter in New York was 73, then 85, then 8 years later, he gets Metcalf and Lockett in Seattle and puts up a 117 last season.
A friend of mine found a gem from PFF looking at explosive plays, how to generate them, and where are they sticky from season to season.
Their conclusion is nothing is more predictive or descriptive of explosive passes than the skill of the WR you throw it to. More predictive than QB!
It is a really good article and if you want me to screenshot some of it let me know if you can't access it.
Also, man their fonts suck. Learn to not use size 6 labels...
Their conclusion is nothing is more predictive or descriptive of explosive passes than the skill of the WR you throw it to. More predictive than QB!
It is a really good article and if you want me to screenshot some of it let me know if you can't access it.
Also, man their fonts suck. Learn to not use size 6 labels...
I feel like some of this thread has turned into a long-term offensive discussion. It comes from the goats discussion and I wouldn't say it is off-topic - just that we probably have decent material for a thread on what they need to do to get the offense right because we looked at the root causes for the goat(s) of this loss.
AN interesting detail in the charts in there.... the 2021 Patriots were one of the better explosive pass play teams in the league.
It’s kind of like when people say great coaches usually need great QBs to win. Uh…. Yeah. QBs play a lot better when they have great people to throw to.
Of course spending tons of resources on those great receivers may mean the team is weak elsewhere and this may not be a better TEAM, but often they are.
Of course spending tons of resources on those great receivers may mean the team is weak elsewhere and this may not be a better TEAM, but often they are.
I just want to say that you’ve been putting on an absolute clinic the last few weeks on the limitations of individual statistics in what is an extremely sophisticated team sport. For years, I’ve been of the mindset about complementarianism (Is that a word?) and wholes that are greater than the sum of the parts that you are promoting, and yet still have been finding some of your illustrations surprising and even at times jaw dropping. Really terrific stuff, and I appreciate you doing the leg work, and I’m sure others do as well.
Seconded. I think I've had my opinion changed I. this thread on the primacy of QB play.
Appreciate it fellas. Like everyone else, I just want this team to win games. I know I've been beating this same drum for a while now though, so I'm trying to be as objective as I can be. I'm not trying to sell Mac on anyone, myself included, but I've seen good things from him this season over last, and since he's gotten here. I just truly believe deep down he gets an unfair shake from the fan base, local sports radio, etc., because the reality is we just watched two decades of the greatest to ever do it, so standards are literally off the charts, which is a double edged sword.
Week in week out, play after play, there are shit shows going on all around the league, guys make bad throws, bad reads, etc. Mac is no exception, but the good teams in the NFL right now all have guys that can make plays for their quarterbacks. Third and 9, you have guys like Diggs, Jefferson, AJ Brown/Smith, Hill/Waddle, Kelce, Chase/Higgins, Adams, Deebo/CMC/Kittle/Aiyuk and on and on and on. Teams have offensive master minds, and offensive lines and great running games. Mac hasn't had any of that, and I see a kid standing in there and taking shot after shot and doing what he can to make a play, and constantly being let down. Some of it is obviously self-inflicted, but Tua threw an awful pick last week that could have cost them the game, and what happens, his offensive line road grades a hole, and his lightning fast running back takes it to the house.
Before I want to cut bait with Mac, I want him to just get an opportunity with some real NFL talent around him. If he falls on his face, so be it, but I 100% do not want to be a team that wins 3 games, drafts another QB, and we go through the same shit because BB doesn't provide them what they need to succeed.
The problem is that Mac is about to start getting expensive relative to his performance. Next year they have the cap room to add some weapons. I hope they do. After that there's going to be an issue with his salary. He's already been much better than 2022 but he's going to have to show even more to merit the 35-40 million paycheck.
My only objection is that I believe we can look at the guy independent of what he has as well. If Mac is provided weapons, very good coaching and a good OL, I'm sure he would be much better than he is today, the offense would score points and the team would be better off. But just like the 49ers with Jimmy (and I suspect the Dolphins with Tua as well), it could very well happen that said offense is great, efficient, and then it comes a time in the playoffs that your guy needs to make plays and he can't. And then you have a wagon with a representative QB who's not a difference maker and his play isn't the difference between going 8-9 and making the playoffs, but the difference between winning a conference championship and losing it.
If the weapons are taken as a given, if the team provides that, then the QB is in focus. I'll agree that the whole "take a bunch of mediocre/bad receivers and transform them into an elite unit" creed is very likely bullshit, or at least so rare that it shouldn't be expected of any one. I just think there's still a major difference between "fine QB with great weapons" and "great QB with great weapons". They should do whatever they can to provide the weapons, sure, I just don't think so far Mac has shown me a spark of being the latter. Which you could argue only heightens the need to invest on that side of the ball, but I just believe we don't need to wait for the perfect context to materialize around him to make a determination on who he is.
I don't really care much about the "oh, he'd be right there with Tua in passer rating if he had Tua's receivers" stuff. I don't think Tua is all that great. Lamar didn't have great numbers these past few years with all the injuries the Ravens had on offense and the lack of receivers to begin with, and Greg Roman calling terrible plays, I still thought he was a difference maker for them every week, even if the ANY/A didn't look great. Same with Mahomes to start this year. I think you can tell. Now, I'll agree the Patriots are better at QB than they are at receiver, so it's pretty obvious which one is in need of an upgrade.
If the weapons are taken as a given, if the team provides that, then the QB is in focus. I'll agree that the whole "take a bunch of mediocre/bad receivers and transform them into an elite unit" creed is very likely bullshit, or at least so rare that it shouldn't be expected of any one. I just think there's still a major difference between "fine QB with great weapons" and "great QB with great weapons". They should do whatever they can to provide the weapons, sure, I just don't think so far Mac has shown me a spark of being the latter. Which you could argue only heightens the need to invest on that side of the ball, but I just believe we don't need to wait for the perfect context to materialize around him to make a determination on who he is.
I don't really care much about the "oh, he'd be right there with Tua in passer rating if he had Tua's receivers" stuff. I don't think Tua is all that great. Lamar didn't have great numbers these past few years with all the injuries the Ravens had on offense and the lack of receivers to begin with, and Greg Roman calling terrible plays, I still thought he was a difference maker for them every week, even if the ANY/A didn't look great. Same with Mahomes to start this year. I think you can tell. Now, I'll agree the Patriots are better at QB than they are at receiver, so it's pretty obvious which one is in need of an upgrade.
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