Game 1 Philly, goats

[Deathofthebambino]

I graded Mac down because the first quarter happened, and he missed some throws that the team needed him to hit. Unlike others, I am willing to acknowledge that Mac did throw a nice deep ball at times and used all of the receivers at his disposal.

So far this weekend, if we rank the QB's by the flawed passer rating stat, Mac is tied for 13th w/ Stafford:

Love: 123.2
Ridder: 111.8 (only 18 attempts)
Purdy: 111.3
Tua: 110.0
Wilson: 108.0
Jimmy G: 107.9
Lawrence: 103.8
Cousins: 102.8
Herbert: 99.1
Carr: 96.1
Mayfield: 94.4
Goff: 94.1
Mac: 91.3
Stafford: 91.3
Hurts: 89.2
Geno Smith: 84.1
Jackson: 79.5
Richardson: 79.0
Dobbs: 78.8
Fields: 78.2
Stroud: 78.0
Howell: 77.6
Mahomes: 77.5
Dak: 72.0
Pickett: 68.4
Watson: 67.3
Burrow: 52.2
Young: 48.8
Tannehill: 28.8
Daniel Jones: 0.0 (In progress)


So, he was basically middle of the pack by the basic numbers. Probably ends up there in the more advanced metrics when all is said and done. You could probably quibble with some of the others ahead of him (DeShaun Watson's performance was seriously overrated by QBR, for example). By throwing 54 passes, Mac was asked to do a lot more than some of the other QB's ahead of him. The interception hurts him, as it should, as it was a bad mistake. But, yes, there was some bad QB play this past weekend.

Anyway, I can take this one as a moral victory. But they don't have room for any others given the schedule, and any good feelings from this one will be erased if they start the season an unacceptable 0-4.

Again, this is why stats drive me nuts.

I've already granted Love/Purdy/Tua/Stafford/Lawrence (maybe) as having equal or better games yesterday than Mac.

If I squint really, really hard, maybe I throw Jimmy G. and his 26 pass attempts (with a pick) in a whopping 17-16 game in that group. Of course, folks around here would be eviscerating Mac for getting Jakobi's head taken off late in the game.

Folks are shitting on our YPA stats yesterday, but wait a second, Russell Wilson? He had 177 yards on 34 pass attempts. What's that work out to? 5.20? Russell Wilson couldn't put up 17 points yesterday against the Raiders, at home. Desmond Ridder completed 15 passes for 115 yards. 51 of which came on 2 plays, and his touchdown was a swing pass to Bijan who made 3 guys miss inside the 10 to score. Kirk Cousins throws for 300+ at home, in a dome, against the shitty Bucs to guys like Justin Jefferson, but his QBR is higher because of ypa? Apparently, these stats don't take into account him dropping two snaps at key moments in the game, plus a pick. 3 turnovers. He did not play better or even close to as well as Mac yesterday. Justin Herbert? We talk about Mac not being able to win games. Herbert got the ball back with 1:45 and a 2 point deficit against Miami, and proceeded to take 2 sacks in 5 plays, game over. Baker? Jared Goff?

This is my point, these stats in short samples are fucking terrible. They completely lack context.

 

[Bowser]

It seems like some of us are trying to answer different questions:

If your question is, Can the Patriots be competitive this year? then yesterday's game was cause for optimism. Clearly, we have the makings of a very strong defense, good special teams, and, at the very least, a competent offense. That's a winning combination, and after last year's shitshow, it's exciting to see a team that could be in the playoff mix.

If, on the other hand, your question is, Is Mac Jones a franchise QB worthy a contract extension who can lead us to a SB appearance? then you're probably less sanguine after yesterday. My concern is that while Mac can probably be an average NFL QB (and maybe a bit better), I don't think he has the tools -- e.g., arm strength, elusiveness, off-platform playmaking-ness, etc. -- to succeed consistently in the fourth quarter when opposing Ds are hitting him with their best schemes.

I think the second question is the one we should be asking.

 

[rodderick]

Again, this is why stats drive me nuts.

I've already granted Love/Purdy/Tua/Stafford/Lawrence (maybe) as having equal or better games yesterday than Mac.

If I squint really, really hard, maybe I throw Jimmy G. and his 26 pass attempts (with a pick) in a whopping 17-16 game in that group. Of course, folks around here would be eviscerating Mac for getting Jakobi's head taken off late in the game.

Folks are shitting on our YPA stats yesterday, but wait a second, Russell Wilson? He had 177 yards on 34 pass attempts. What's that work out to? 5.20? Russell Wilson couldn't put up 17 points yesterday against the Raiders, at home. Desmond Ridder completed 15 passes for 115 yards. 51 of which came on 2 plays, and his touchdown was a swing pass to Bijan who made 3 guys miss inside the 10 to score. Kirk Cousins throws for 300+ at home, in a dome, against the shitty Bucs to guys like Justin Jefferson, but his QBR is higher because of ypa? Apparently, these stats don't take into account him dropping two snaps at key moments in the game, plus a pick. 3 turnovers. He did not play better or even close to as well as Mac yesterday. Justin Herbert? We talk about Mac not being able to win games. Herbert got the ball back with 1:45 and a 2 point deficit against Miami, and proceeded to take 2 sacks in 5 plays, game over. Baker? Jared Goff?

This is my point, these stats in short samples are fucking terrible. They completely lack context.

Passer rating does not give any context, you're 100% right about that. Similarly context-feee ANY/A (which I prefer to passer rating) has him 13th. QBR tries to give context, and Mac was 16th his week. EPA/Play also takes context into account and he ranks 19th as of now. He was also 19th in Completion Percentage Over Expected. Being middle of the pack in these stats in a losing effort isn't anything to be ashamed of.

I should note that all of these stats take only actual results into account, so dropped passes/dropped picks aren't counted for any quarterback. For more subjective, process oriented analysis, there's PFF, but their grades aren't out yet.

 

[8slim]

Again, this is why stats drive me nuts.

I've already granted Love/Purdy/Tua/Stafford/Lawrence (maybe) as having equal or better games yesterday than Mac.

If I squint really, really hard, maybe I throw Jimmy G. and his 26 pass attempts (with a pick) in a whopping 17-16 game in that group. Of course, folks around here would be eviscerating Mac for getting Jakobi's head taken off late in the game.

Folks are shitting on our YPA stats yesterday, but wait a second, Russell Wilson? He had 177 yards on 34 pass attempts. What's that work out to? 5.20? Russell Wilson couldn't put up 17 points yesterday against the Raiders, at home. Desmond Ridder completed 15 passes for 115 yards. 51 of which came on 2 plays, and his touchdown was a swing pass to Bijan who made 3 guys miss inside the 10 to score. Kirk Cousins throws for 300+ at home, in a dome, against the shitty Bucs to guys like Justin Jefferson, but his QBR is higher because of ypa? Apparently, these stats don't take into account him dropping two snaps at key moments in the game, plus a pick. 3 turnovers. He did not play better or even close to as well as Mac yesterday. Justin Herbert? We talk about Mac not being able to win games. Herbert got the ball back with 1:45 and a 2 point deficit against Miami, and proceeded to take 2 sacks in 5 plays, game over. Baker? Jared Goff?

This is my point, these stats in short samples are fucking terrible. They completely lack context.

As the guy who introduced YPA into the discussion, can I say again that it was in response to a post that was comparing Mac's 316 yards to Joe Burrow's awful day. It was literally posted as context, and I suggested that the YPA was about the Pats offense in its entirety. And that it's tough to win with that YPA and no effective run game. Which is true, because we scored 3 times, in 13 drives, and lost.

I think football stats are mostly dumb and say next to nothing meaningful. Gross passing yards might be among the dumbest.

 

[ManicCompression]

I would have more confidence in Mac if he didn't look like Denver-era Peyton Manning when the ball comes out of his hand. It's a lot of windup for a ball with no velocity. It makes the margin of error for him really slim.

 

[Humphrey]

Wise. Two killer penalties.

Yes, cost them 3 on the initial drive by lining up in the neutral zone. Throwing error by the center would have made it 3rd and 15.

 

[Salva135]

That's fair. I'm being aggressive since I think the team will burn up the goodwill they generated from yesterday if they go out and lose to Miami next Sunday.

I'm not suggesting their playoff chances are toast if they start 0-2, but that sure makes it a lot more difficult.

Miami can clearly score points and I think Mac is going to have to throw a lot in this game. If they lose but Mac makes a couple of nice throws, I'm just not interested in rehashing this week after week.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

To me, some of the biggest plays of the game were after the Patriots got the sack in the fourth quarter to make it second and forever at the 48. The Eagles, very methodically, picked up 15 yards on two plays to give them a makeable 50-yard field goal (which was made by an inch) and make it a two score game, forcing the Patriots into hard decisions (some of which we're criticizing), and requiring two TDs absent a two-point conversion (which we did not convert obviously).

To me, that sequence epitomized the difference between the two teams. It was a great example of situational football. The Eagles used the Patriots' tendency to need a stop (as in no first down) to take what the defense gave and to make it a two score game. It's kind of exactly what the Patriots have failed to do in the last few years -- continually bogging down on the edge of field goal range and often, because they are chasing the game, being forced into less than desirable choices.

I'm not criticizing the defense by any means. They are the reason the Patriots weren't blown out before the Brady celebration, and they gave the team multiple chances to win. It was just hard to watch what winning football looks like, because that has been a Belichick calling card for so many years. The truth is that great situational play really is something you can only work on and hone when you have the basics down. The Patriots are kind of often just hanging on or scrambling, and committing line of scrimmage penalties on the edge of field goal range, etc. While Hurts just nailed those two plays and ended up winning the game right there.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Passer rating does not give any context, you're 100% right about that. Similarly context-feee ANY/A (which I prefer to passer rating) has him 13th. QBR tries to give context, and Mac was 16th his week. EPA/Play also takes context into account and he ranks 19th as of now. He was also 19th in Completion Percentage Over Expected. Being middle of the pack in these stats in a losing effort isn't anything to be ashamed of.

I should note that all of these stats take only actual results into account, so dropped passes/dropped picks aren't counted for any quarterback. For more subjective, process oriented analysis, there's PFF, but their grades aren't out yet.

Nobody even really knows ESPN calculates QBR. It has Kirk Cousins ranked higher yesterday than Mac, and Cousins was fucking dreadful, fumbling away two snaps, and a brutal pick.

Going back to my question, which quarterbacks played better than Mac yesterday around the league, I'm getting stats without context. I want to know who actually played a better football game. Who gave their teams a chance to win, or caused their teams to lose. Anyone who watched football this weekend and came away from these games (or any stat that came to the same result) that Mac played worse than Cousins, Mahomes, Wilson, Watson, Goff, Baker and on and on should be tossed on sight. There is no context for game plan, there's no context for receiver quality, there's no context for weather conditions, there's no context for opponent at this point in the season...

The Pats are going to come away with the NFL lead, or close to it in dropped passes this week (if they can jump ahead of Kadarius Toney), and that won't even include Boutte not getting his feet down twice.

 

[rodderick]

Nobody even really knows ESPN calculates QBR. It has Kirk Cousins ranked higher yesterday than Mac, and Cousins was fucking dreadful, fumbling away two snaps, and a brutal pick.

Going back to my question, which quarterbacks played better than Mac yesterday around the league, I'm getting stats without context. I want to know who actually played a better football game. Who gave their teams a chance to win, or caused their teams to lose. Anyone who watched football this weekend and came away from these games (or any stat that came to the same result) that Mac played worse than Cousins, Mahomes, Wilson, Watson, Goff, Baker and on and on should be tossed on sight. There is no context for game plan, there's no context for receiver quality, there's no context for weather conditions, there's no context for opponent at this point in the season...

The Pats are going to come away with the NFL lead, or close to it in dropped passes this week (if they can jump ahead of Kadarius Toney), and that won't even include Boutte not getting his feet down twice.

Did you watch all of those games or are you judging those other guys by reading their box scores?

 

[astrozombie]

If, on the other hand, your question is, Is Mac Jones a franchise QB worthy a contract extension who can lead us to a SB appearance? then you're probably less sanguine after yesterday. My concern is that while Mac can probably be an average NFL QB (and maybe a bit better), I don't think he has the tools -- e.g., arm strength, elusiveness, off-platform playmaking-ness, etc. -- to succeed consistently in the fourth quarter when opposing Ds are hitting him with their best schemes.

I think the second question is the one we should be asking.

Mac strikes me as a QB who is only as good as the offense around him. If he was on the Cardinals, he would be a dumpster fire. If he was on the 49ers now, he would be looking stellar. He's not Mahomes or prime-Brady who you can drop into a horrific offense and automatically get better, but few people are. To your point, is he a SB-winning QB? I think he can be. But it's hard to tell when he has had the Patricia/Judge OC experience, no elite WRs, an O-line that has been more crap than anything else, etc.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Did you watch all of those games or are you judging those other guys by reading their box scores?

I have 4 televisions, and 2 computer monitors open all day on Sunday running different games. I miss some plays here and there and then go back and watch on DVR, etc., but yeah, I watch almost every snap of every game by the middle of the following week, sometimes later if I go to the Pats games, but those are few and far between at this point.

College football is much harder, but I get a good 25 or so games a week in full, but mostly via DVR and apps so I can fast forward.

 

[Salva135]

To your point, is he a SB-winning QB? I think he can be. But it's hard to tell when he has had the Patricia/Judge OC experience, no elite WRs, an O-line that has been more crap than anything else, etc.

If you're asking this same question in December, then we are in trouble. This is the worst-case scenario.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Mac strikes me as a QB who is only as good as the offense around him. If he was on the Cardinals, he would be a dumpster fire. If he was on the 49ers now, he would be looking stellar. He's not Mahomes or prime-Brady who you can drop into a horrific offense and automatically get better, but few people are. To your point, is he a SB-winning QB? I think he can be. But it's hard to tell when he has had the Patricia/Judge OC experience, no elite WRs, an O-line that has been more crap than anything else, etc.

Absolutely right. This is true of almost every QB in the league, not named Tom Brady. If Kelce is out for a long period of time, we'll find out pretty quickly if Mahomes is that guy (I think he is personally). But Rodgers was a mess last year without Adams, Hurts was not very good until they put the right players around him, Tua without Hill and Waddle, Brock Purdy wouldn't stand a chance if not for that team and coaching staff, Josh Allen wasn't JOSH ALLEN until they brought Diggs in....The list is endless.

 

[Toe Nash]

One thing I'll point out here is that it's a new season, so some Mac defenders are talking out of both sides by saying that Mac put up 300 yards against "one of the best" defenses in the NFL while also saying look at at how bad Burrow etc. played. Week 1 is weird; Philly could have regressed on D, they could have come out flat yesterday, other teams' offensive lines played pretty bad for some reason, we don't really know especially with a shorter preseason where a lot of starters barely play. If we assume a null hypothesis that every team is average week 1, Mac's game looks fine but not great, just like most of his career.

This is the play to me. If Mac can't hit Bourne here he needs to be basically perfect on throws underneath all the way down the field and that's not the way to score a lot of points regardless of who he's throwing to.

https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/video/highlight-darius-slay-breaks-up-mac-jones-launch-codes-attempt-to-kendrick-bourn

 

[rodderick]

Passer rating does not give any context, you're 100% right about that. Similarly context-feee ANY/A (which I prefer to passer rating) has him 13th. QBR tries to give context, and Mac was 16th his week. EPA/Play also takes context into account and he ranks 19th as of now. He was also 19th in Completion Percentage Over Expected. Being middle of the pack in these stats in a losing effort isn't anything to be ashamed of.

I should note that all of these stats take only actual results into account, so dropped passes/dropped picks aren't counted for any quarterback. For more subjective, process oriented analysis, there's PFF, but their grades aren't out yet.

PFF grades are in (I don't know if these are the preliminary or definitive ones), but Mac is among the guys they believe to be underrated by EPA/Play this week, having him ranked as the 7th best QB on Sunday. PFF grade from weeks 1-6 tends to be slightly more predictive of future performance than even the EPA/Play-CPOE composite, so I'll be keeping an eye on that for Mac. The advanced formulas jived with my estimation that he was just fine yesterday, PFF believes he was better than that. I tend to give PFF a bit more weight this early, so it's possible I may have underestimated how good Mac was Week 1.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

One thing I'll point out here is that it's a new season, so some Mac defenders are talking out of both sides by saying that Mac put up 300 yards against "one of the best" defenses in the NFL while also saying look at at how bad Burrow etc. played. Week 1 is weird; Philly could have regressed on D, they could have come out flat yesterday, other teams' offensive lines played pretty bad for some reason, we don't really know especially with a shorter preseason where a lot of starters barely play. If we assume a null hypothesis that every team is average week 1, Mac's game looks fine but not great, just like most of his career.

This is the play to me. If Mac can't hit Bourne here he needs to be basically perfect on throws underneath all the way down the field and that's not the way to score a lot of points regardless of who he's throwing to.

https://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/video/highlight-darius-slay-breaks-up-mac-jones-launch-codes-attempt-to-kendrick-bourn

That's the play to you? What about Mac's next 10 throws immediately after that incompletion?

• 2nd & 10 at NE 42
  (7:21 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to E.Elliott to NE 42 for no gain (Z.Cunningham).
• 3rd & 10 at NE 42
  (6:42 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to J.Smith-Schuster to PHI 43 for 15 yards (R.Blankenship). PHI-R.Blankenship was injured during the play.
• 1st & 10 at PHI 43
  (6:08 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass deep right to D.Douglas ran ob at PHI 20 for 23 yards.
• 1st & 10 at PHI 20
  (5:33 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to T.Montgomery to PHI 9 for 11 yards (Z.Cunningham).
• 1st & Goal at PHI 9
  (5:11 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Stevenson up the middle to PHI 9 for no gain (M.Williams).

• 2nd & Goal at PHI 9
  (4:34 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short left to H.Henry for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-B.Baringer.

• 1st & 10 at NE 37
  (2:27 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to T.Montgomery pushed ob at NE 35 for -2 yards (B.Graham).
• (2:00 - 2nd) Two-Minute Warning
• 2nd & 12 at NE 35
  (1:51 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to H.Henry to NE 48 for 13 yards (J.Evans).
• 1st & 10 at NE 48
  (1:13 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass short middle to H.Henry to PHI 39 for 13 yards (J.Evans).
• 1st & 10 at PHI 39
  (1:01 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-J.Sweat, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 39 - No Play.
• 1st & 5 at PHI 34
  (0:52 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones scrambles left end to PHI 26 for 8 yards (R.Blankenship).
• 1st & 10 at PHI 26
  (0:30 - 2nd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Jones pass short right to J.Smith-Schuster pushed ob at PHI 19 for 7 yards (A.Maddox).
• 2nd & 3 at PHI 19
  (0:25 - 2nd) (Shotgun) M.Jones pass deep middle to K.Bourne for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-B.Baringer.

The guy underthrew Bourne on a deep ball. Tom Brady didn't exactly hit every deep ball he threw, but that play in the grand scheme meant nothing to the game. On that very same drive, following that play, Mac went 5/5 for 58 yards and a touchdown immediately after that miss. Then on the next possession, he went 5/5 for 58 yards and another touchdown.

He then completed his next pass coming out of halftime for his 11th straight completion, and on the 12th, he hit Boutte on a pass on 3rd and 4 deep down the sideline, and Boutte couldn't get his feet down.


I'm just asking, what is the standard we're holding Mac too right now? It sure feels like we're holding him to an insanely high standard, where he gets shit on even when he completes passes because they don't hit a receiver perfectly in stride every time, shit on when he God forbid, doesn't complete one, shit on when he gets sacked because Trent Brown waives to a guy on his way by, shit on when he doesn't pull out a win when he is throwing catchable balls that his receivers aren't making plays on....

The pick 6 to open the game was a fucking dreadful, awful play that he should get shit on for...After that, he put them in positions to score and ultimately win the game regularly only to have things come unglued as a result of things he can't control.

On the 2nd possession of the third quarter, Mac drove them down the field, had 1st and 10 at the Philly 28. Stevenson runs for a first down to the 17 and it gets called back on an awful call on Henry. So instead of 1st and 10 at the 17, the Pats are in 2nd and 17 from the 35. Mac takes the dump off to Elliott on 3rd and 17, gets them back to the 29, for a field goal attempt, but wait, here comes another questionable flag on Mafi (no defensive advantage) that pushes them back to the 39 and facing 3rd and 21. A quick pass to Douglas loses 4, so we go from 1st and 10 from the 17 to 4th and 25 from the 43. None of which was Mac's fault.

The next possession is when they went for it on 4th and 3, after running into the line on 2nd and 3rd downs, and I think most folks now recognize they probably should have kicked that field goal.

The next possession, Mac goes 4/5 for 68 yards and a td, runs in the conversion, but that gets called back because of holding.

The next possession, Mac hits Bourne over the middle, after taking a sack, for what would have been a first down. Bourne dropped it, would have been a tough catch, but it wasn't made. Then the awful DoG (on Mac probably), then the drop by Henry.

The next possession, he hits Boutte for a 4th down conversion, and Boutte can't get his feet in.


I mean, that's the entire 2nd half right there. Mac isn't the one who cost them this game, Mac isn't the reason they only scored 3 times in 13 possessions. He kept putting them in spots to score, and it didn't work, but I will push back on this being because of Mac.

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

I think it was a pretty close statistical decision and don’t have a strong opinion on it either way, but I’ll take it as a good sign if it means we have aggressive Bill back. That’ll be beneficial overall.

I was surprises he didn’t take the points but scared shitless when they snapped the ball.

 

[Jimbodandy]

What I find funny is someone complaining upthread about the "Mac defenders" here. There are two groups of Pats fans here: those who don't yet know if Mac is the guy or not, and those who are 100% sure that Mac is not the guy.

That's not fair, there are a couple of folks who think that the team has no hope if we don't have 3 Justin Jeffersons out there, regardless of who the QB is. That's group 3.

 

[DourDoerr]

Absolutely right. This is true of almost every QB in the league, not named Tom Brady. If Kelce is out for a long period of time, we'll find out pretty quickly if Mahomes is that guy (I think he is personally). But Rodgers was a mess last year without Adams, Hurts was not very good until they put the right players around him, Tua without Hill and Waddle, Brock Purdy wouldn't stand a chance if not for that team and coaching staff, Josh Allen wasn't JOSH ALLEN until they brought Diggs in....The list is endless.

I'll add that even TOm BRAdy didn't become TOM BRADY until Moss, Welker then Gronk and Edelman put on the Flying Elvis.

FWIW I'll add that I'm very encouraged by the overall play yesterday - especially the defense and ST. The OL was a Frankenstein monster, but the stitches held until almost the very end. I didn't like going for it on 4th and longish late in the game (and I swear I said it aloud at the time). They'd already dodged the bullet earlier in the drive with the 4th down conversion. I didn't mind that 4th down attempt. They needed some points and a FG from that distance seemed too iffy with excellent field position on a miss. A FG was now very makable, however, and the downside was, well, where we ended up - chasing 2 scores.

To anybody at the game - did you feel the stadium additions made the place louder?

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'll add that even TOm BRAdy didn't become TOM BRADY until Moss, Welker then Gronk and Edelman put on the Flying Elvis.

FWIW I'll add that I'm very encouraged by the overall play yesterday - especially the defense and ST. The OL was a Frankenstein monster, but the stitches held until almost the very end. I didn't like going for it on 4th and longish late in the game (and I swear I said it aloud at the time). They'd already dodged the bullet earlier in the drive with the 4th down conversion. I didn't mind that 4th down attempt. They needed some points and a FG from that distance seemed too iffy with excellent field position on a miss. A FG was now very makable, however, and the downside was, well, where we ended up - chasing 2 scores.

To anybody at the game - did you feel the stadium additions made the place louder?

I guess it depends what you mean, but he was universally considered one of the very best in the league before any of those guys was on the roster, he had multiple pro-bowls, multiple top 3 MVP finishes, had led the league in passing yards and passing TDs. Brady was a no doubt top QB in the league very soon after becoming the starter.

After a bad start, Mac had a pretty good game, but he looked far more like a serviceable starter than a top QB, and that isn't about weapons, it's about the throws he does/doesn't or can/can't make.

 

[johnmd20]

I guess it depends what you mean, but he was universally considered one of the very best in the league before any of those guys was on the roster, he had multiple pro-bowls, multiple top 3 MVP finishes, had led the league in passing yards and passing TDs. Brady was a no doubt top QB in the league very soon after becoming the starter.

After a bad start, Mac had a pretty good game, but he looked far more like a serviceable starter than a top QB, and that isn't about weapons, it's about the throws he does/doesn't or can/can't make.

What's amazing is Tom Brady had a better passer rating last year, at age 45, than he did in his first three full seasons. But Brady wasn't a top QB until his 5th season. Those all star votes in 2003 were for the SB wins. He threw for 3600 yards and 23 TDs and 12 INTs. Obviously the NFL was different but those are pedestrian. Brady was 6th in the NFL in yards that year.

A solid year, but not a no doubt top QB. Until 2005. And even then, his numbers in his first 6 seasons look absolutely nothing like the numbers in his career from 2007 on. They are a different player altogether. It's like looking at Rafael Palmiero's stats in his career. He was one player, a good one, and then a total monster with eye popping numbers, a totally different player.

Of course, Brady did it with sunburn resistant water and bands and Palmiero did it with steroids. But looking at his career stats is a trip.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

What's amazing is Tom Brady had a better passer rating last year, at age 45, than he did in his first three full seasons. But Brady wasn't a top QB until his 5th season. Those all star votes in 2003 were for the SB wins. He threw for 3600 yards and 23 TDs and 12 INTs. Obviously the NFL was different but those are pedestrian. Brady was 6th in the NFL in yards that year.

A solid year, but not a no doubt top QB. Until 2005. And even then, his numbers in his first 6 seasons look absolutely nothing like the numbers in his career from 2007 on. They are a different player altogether. It's like looking at Rafael Palmiero's stats in his career. He was one player, a good one, and then a total monster with eye popping numbers, a totally different player.

Of course, Brady did it with sunburn resistant water and bands and Palmiero did it with steroids. But looking at his career stats is a trip.

Brady essentially sat as a top 6-10 quarterback in those seasons prior to 2007. You had Manning, Favre, then Brees, Eli, etc. showed up, but every year, you had a guy like McNabb (people need to look at his td/int #'s if they haven't, they were really good), Trent Green, Bulger, Carson Palmer, Culpepper, McNair having a great season. Then Brady got some weapons on offense, and all hell broke loose in New England offensively, but even for the next several seasons as the Pats couldn't get over the hump, there was still plenty of doubters that had Manning, Favre, Brees, Rivers, Eli, etc. ahead of him.

 

[rodderick]

Brady essentially sat as a top 6-10 quarterback in those seasons prior to 2007. You had Manning, Favre, then Brees, Eli, etc. showed up, but every year, you had a guy like McNabb (people need to look at his td/int #'s if they haven't, they were really good), Trent Green, Bulger, Carson Palmer, Culpepper, McNair having a great season. Then Brady got some weapons on offense, and all hell broke loose in New England offensively, but even for the next several seasons as the Pats couldn't get over the hump, there was still plenty of doubters that had Manning, Favre, Brees, Rivers, Eli, etc. ahead of him.

Yeah, from 2004 on no one had him below the top 3 aside from some very specific haters. I'd argue 95% of people had him top 2 with Peyton.

 

[johnmd20]

Yeah, from 2004 on no one had him below the top 3 aside from some very specific haters. I'd argue 95% of people had him top 2 with Peyton.

In 2004, Brady finished 10th in overall fantasy QB scoring. Not a perfect metric, just an indication of the counting stats. He was 11th in 2003.

And then in 05 he was 2nd. 06, 7th. 07, 1st.

It was 2005 when Brady went from "System QB" to "stud everyone wants".

 

[Cellar-Door]

In 2004, Brady finished 10th in overall fantasy QB scoring. Not a perfect metric, just an indication of the counting stats. He was 11th in 2003.

And then in 05 he was 2nd. 06, 7th. 07, 1st.

It was 2005 when Brady went from "System QB" to "stud everyone wants".

I'd say around 2003 is when people basically said "ignore the counting stats he's elite playing with no weapons" fantasy scoring and counting stats aren't all that indicative of how the league views guys.
like last year the 11th best fantasy scorer was Herbert, nobody thought he wasn't a top QB, especially compared to guys above him like Fields, Geno, etc. Brady was putting up top 10 type numbers on a conservative offense with weak skill players in his 2nd year as a starter, the league saw him as a top QB on the rise by then.

 

[rodderick]

In 2004, Brady finished 10th in overall fantasy QB scoring. Not a perfect metric, just an indication of the counting stats. He was 11th in 2003.

And then in 05 he was 2nd. 06, 7th. 07, 1st.

It was 2005 when Brady went from "System QB" to "stud everyone wants".

Raw counting stats/fantasy numbers isn't how most of the general public and media judges QB play. I feel like we're giving a lot of weight to how he was perceived by a minority that disparaged his talent and not the wide perception of him at the time. Sure, some weirdos might have thought Marc Bulger was better, but that was very far from majority opinion.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Raw counting stats/fantasy numbers isn't how most of the general public and media judges QB play. I feel like we're giving a lot of weight to how he was perceived by a minority that disparaged his talent and not the wide perception of him at the time. Sure, some weirdos might have thought Marc Bulger was better, but that was very far from majority opinion.

Are you sure on that? I mean, there are hours spent on Fantasy stats a week on the ESPN/FSNs of the world. Do you think that Joe Public goes to advanced stats on PFF?

 

[Ed Hillel]

I would have more confidence in Mac if he didn't look like Denver-era Peyton Manning when the ball comes out of his hand. It's a lot of windup for a ball with no velocity. It makes the margin of error for him really slim.

The ball speed and footwork are the 2 real issues that, as of now, limit his ceiling. By season 3, Brady's arm speed was showing noticeable improvement, whereas Mac still looks like the same guy to me. The pocket presence/footwork...well, there was one play on I think the first drive where Mac quickly sidestepped a rush, stepped into a small pocket and delivered a strike. That was the first time I remember seeing anything like that from him, and I was getting excited a bit. Then he seemed to largely go back to his old ways of shuffling his feet and throwing off balance at the first sight of pressure, and this happened during the context of the OL holding up relatively well for him overall. I think 3 years is about as long as an organization should give a QB to improve on these issues, and so I think if we don't see noticeable improvement over the course of the year in at least one of them, they'll probably need to at least draft a QB in the top 3 rounds if not get rid of him right away.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Also, goat horns to Matt Fucking Patricia for sitting our most talented receiver by far most of the season because reasons.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Anyone catch BB rub his lips and then sniff his fingers? He gets a goat from me for that gross move.

 

[SMU_Sox]

So - his velocity is fine - he even had zip on quite a few balls yesterday. His velocity has improved. It's still nothing special and his throws to the outside have to be timing and rhythm based and he is still a tick late on some.

Guys like Mac, true cerebral pocket passers, don't get really good until what year 3-4-5-6? @Super Nomario made that comment before that with a true pocket passer the better ones keep seeing incremental improvement over the years but it is a drawn-out process. Also, was Brady superman when he had a shitty supporting cast? No he was not. There are limits to how much you can improve guys around you.

And no he is not Manning 2015 level or even 2013-2014 level of arm. Did you see the throw to Bourne that he should have caught while Mac was being hit? That was a laser. I don't know if he is the long term answer but yesterday made me feel better about him in that direction not worse. The offense that we saw was Mac as a point guard. It's his offense.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Are you sure on that? I mean, there are hours spent on Fantasy stats a week on the ESPN/FSNs of the world. Do you think that Joe Public goes to advanced stats on PFF?

PFF no, and I think there is a tendency for fantasy to inflate opinions of some guys. However, I also think the proliferation of fantasy, and of accordingly watching a ton more games out of your own team means people have a better idea of when guys are "empty stats" guys. Like Blake Bortles was really good in fantasy... everyone made jokes about how he put up all these numbers late in games he was losing because he sucked early.

 

[johnmd20]

PFF no, and I think there is a tendency for fantasy to inflate opinions of some guys. However, I also think the proliferation of fantasy, and of accordingly watching a ton more games out of your own team means people have a better idea of when guys are "empty stats" guys. Like Blake Bortles was really good in fantasy... everyone made jokes about how he put up all these numbers late in games he was losing because he sucked early.

Bottles had one great year in fantasy, maybe 2. Nobody said he was good. Plenty of guys flashed for a few months and then they are gone. Jonas Gray, for example.

And it is a unequivocal fact that the best fantasy players are usually the best players in the NFL. Occasionally a guy will compile empty stats (Justin Fields) but more often not. To get numbers in the NFL, you need to be great.

For example, wers Calvin Ridley and Brandon Aiyuk great players yesterday? Yes. Was Algiere? Yes. Tua? They put up big numbers and their teams won.

I am not saying only fantasy numbers matter, but they also cannot be dismissed as useless.

 

[Ed Hillel]

So - his velocity is fine - he even had zip on quite a few balls yesterday. His velocity has improved. It's still nothing special and his throws to the outside have to be timing and rhythm based and he is still a tick late on some.

I honestly don't see it. Are we anywhere where one of the advanced stats places has velocity somehow? With his footwork, it's a bit difficult to tell how much is velocity versus that tbh, but particularly with balls to the sidelines (which might indicate it's a footwork issue) there is way too much hang on many of his passes. Look at his pass to Henry on 4th and 17, that was a freaking lollipop in a situation that called for anything but.

Edit - Looking again, it appears to be a footwork issue. He has a perfectly clean pocket and doesn't plant towards the receiver so he ends up throwing against his body. It was also a bad decision, but that's another issue. His decision making is pretty blah. He still makes a number of dangerous, unnecessary throws, or goes short of the sticks when he has time kind of issues.

Guys like Mac, true cerebral pocket passers, don't get really good until what year 3-4-5-6? @Super Nomario made that comment before that with a true pocket passer the better ones keep seeing incremental improvement over the years but it is a drawn-out process. Also, was Brady superman when he had a shitty supporting cast? No he was not. There are limits to how much you can improve guys around you.

I'm not trying to compare Mac to Brady, but I will defend Brady here because he kind of was a superman by year 3 given his cast. He led the league in TD passes in 2002 and was a pretty fantastic player by 2003-2004. Not as good as he'd end up becoming, obviously, but he was improving quickly early on. Plus, Brady's career encompasses the period where QB numbers started to inflate, thanks to Polian's whining and protecting QBs (mostly Polian's whining, which allowed receievers to roam free). Thus, Brady's numbers from 2002 to, say 2006-07 should be considered in context.

Also, regarding the true pocket passers thing, does that seem a bit dated? It seems to me nowadays we are getting more information and accurate trajectory earlier. Whether it's because teams are less afraid to just go for it with young QBs early or rule changes, it's not often we get surprised at where a QB goes year 4 and on.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The paradigm has shifted towards more dual-threat or mobile QBs but you still have Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Jimmy G, Brock Purdy, Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and others too who are pocket passers and it's not that you won't get a read on them earlier but typically pocket passers develop slower. You can speed it up by doing more RPO, PA, etc. I think Tannehill is a good example of this. He was ok in Miami. Worse than average? Whatever. Let's not get caught up in semantics. He goes to Tennessee in a play-action oriented offense and he's producing. So there are changes that can be had. Tua made a huge jump from year 1 to where he is producing now.

I would say for velocity that you have to judge it in certain categories: in-pocket-off-platform, mobile-off-platform, mobile-on platform, in-pocket-on-platform. Mac has fine velocity when he can plant his feet and drive it and/or when he can align the throw right with his body, feet, hips, shoulders, etc. It's only fine. It is below league average but it would have been league average in the mid 2000s, I suspect anyway.

Mac does not have good velocity when he can't reset his feet, is mobile, or is off-platform in the pocket. Remind me if he was hurried on that throw to Henry? Not snarky - just am shopping for groceries and can't find a link.

I don't think there is an advanced metric for velocity that I know of.

 

[mauf]

The Pats were 4-4 in one-score games last season and 3-3 in 2021. Not sure where the perception that the Pats are losing more than their share of these close games comes from.

 

[Average Game James]

The Pats were 4-4 in one-score games last season and 3-3 in 2021. Not sure where the perception that the Pats are losing more than their share of these close games comes from.

Average feels awful relative to the prior two decades. Pats were 86-43 in one score games from 2001-2019.

 

[tims4wins]

The Pats were 4-4 in one-score games last season and 3-3 in 2021. Not sure where the perception that the Pats are losing more than their share of these close games comes from.

We remember the close losses more than the close wins.

Also, some of the close losses are against bad teams whereas some of the close wins are against good teams.

 

[azsoxpatsfan]

Average feels awful relative to the prior two decades. Pats were 86-43 in one score games from 2001-2019.

Off topic but holy shit that’s an insane record in one score games. I guess that’s why every close game felt like an obvious win

 

[BaseballJones]

Off topic but holy shit that’s an insane record in one score games. I guess that’s why every close game felt like an obvious win

Not exactly a small sample size either.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I'll add that even TOm BRAdy didn't become TOM BRADY until Moss, Welker then Gronk and Edelman put on the Flying Elvis.

But even in those early years he made the palys when the game was on the line. In 2001 he brought them back in the 4th/OT in about 6 or 7 games including playoffs. He didn't have the numbers or the weapons, but he was there in the clutch.

So - his velocity is fine - he even had zip on quite a few balls yesterday. His velocity has improved. It's still nothing special and his throws to the outside have to be timing and rhythm based and he is still a tick late on some.

Does he underthrow his talent level on some types of throws because he is late or has mechanical issues?

 

[tims4wins]

But even in those early years he made the palys when the game was on the line. In 2001 he brought them back in the 4th/OT in about 6 or 7 games including playoffs. He didn't have the numbers or the weapons, but he was there in the clutch.
Does he underthrow his talent level on some types of throws because he is late or has mechanical issues?

His 3rd start he brought them from 10 down against the Chargers. Mac has never done that.

 

[BigSoxFan]

We remember the close losses more than the close wins.

Also, some of the close losses are against bad teams whereas some of the close wins are against good teams.

Yup. This is a team that needs a big win against a top opponent. Haven’t had many post-Brady.

 

[tims4wins]

Yup. This is a team that needs a big win against a top opponent. Haven’t had many post-Brady.

I meant to write it the other way around but I think you got what I meant

 

[BigSoxFan]

I meant to write it the other way around but I think you got what I meant

Ha, my brain read it the way you meant it.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I'm standing by my call that Mac was a Week 1 goat because of the first 5 drives. But, everyone pointing out that tehre were a lot of rusty QBs out there in Week 1 has a point.

 

[Saints Rest]

The paradigm has shifted towards more dual-threat or mobile QBs but you still have Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Geno Smith, Jimmy G, Brock Purdy, Matt Stafford, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, and others too who are pocket passers and it's not that you won't get a read on them earlier but typically pocket passers develop slower. You can speed it up by doing more RPO, PA, etc. I think Tannehill is a good example of this. He was ok in Miami. Worse than average? Whatever. Let's not get caught up in semantics. He goes to Tennessee in a play-action oriented offense and he's producing. So there are changes that can be had. Tua made a huge jump from year 1 to where he is producing now.

I would say for velocity that you have to judge it in certain categories: in-pocket-off-platform, mobile-off-platform, mobile-on platform, in-pocket-on-platform. Mac has fine velocity when he can plant his feet and drive it and/or when he can align the throw right with his body, feet, hips, shoulders, etc. It's only fine. It is below league average but it would have been league average in the mid 2000s, I suspect anyway.

Mac does not have good velocity when he can't reset his feet, is mobile, or is off-platform in the pocket. Remind me if he was hurried on that throw to Henry? Not snarky - just am shopping for groceries and can't find a link.

I don't think there is an advanced metric for velocity that I know of.

That didn’t end well for Parcells. But was ultimately very good for the Pats and Belichick.

 

[Shelterdog]

Yup. This is a team that needs a big win against a top opponent. Haven’t had many post-Brady.

Do the Jets and Giants count at this point?

 

[BigSoxFan]

Do the Jets and Giants count at this point?

Give me a win in the Cowboys, Bills, and KC group. Two of those games are home games. A legit playoff team shouldn’t go 0-4 against them.