Free Agent Bingo

[Papelbon's Poutine]

And you think that Jason Heyward belongs in that company? On current level of performance? On projected future? You (or any GM) willing to give him a contract in excess of 200 million better be pretty confident in their evaluation of the defensive component of his skill set because the offense sure as hell ain't worth 200m.

As a point of reference I would bring up the name Rusney Castillo - they are actually rather similar players - excellent defensive OFs with limited batting skills. Heyward's offense is better but not at elite levels. Now Rusney's considered an overpay at his current 10.3m a year. Is the difference between Castillo and Heyward worth 20 million dollars a year?

Holy God, there is literally almost nothing similar about Rusney Castillo and Jason Heyward. Rusney isn't considered an overpay either, except to people that unrealistic expectations about how quickly he would transition to MLB and people that completely discount injuries. As Hillbilly noted, if you use about $7M per win (which as he notes is probably low at this point), Castillo can easily meet his contract just basically by staying on the field. Even his weak half season put up .8 bWAR last year.

Heyward's offense is certainly better and though it's not elite, there's plenty of room to grow and a lot of scouts cited the Braves for screwing him up (as they did the Upton brothers and some other guys that saw their swings deteriorate while playing in ATL). He was noted for making much better contact after some changes in STL and after a slow start, his splits took off after the All Star break, to the tune of .317/.397/.469. And at 26 years old (two years older than Rusney, with already 31+ WAR under his belt), he's coming into his prime. A premiere RF defender, who can put up a .850 OPS in today's environment with room to grow into even a better hitter is easily the most valuable position player on the market.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Holy God, there is literally almost nothing similar about Rusney Castillo and Jason Heyward. Rusney isn't considered an overpay either, except to people that unrealistic expectations about how quickly he would transition to MLB and people that completely discount injuries. As Hillbilly noted, if you use about $7M per win (which as he notes is probably low at this point), Castillo can easily meet his contract just basically by staying on the field. Even his weak half season put up .8 bWAR last year.

Heyward's offense is certainly better and though it's not elite, there's plenty of room to grow and a lot of scouts cited the Braves for screwing him up (as they did the Upton brothers and some other guys that saw their swings deteriorate while playing in ATL). He was noted for making much better contact after some changes in STL and after a slow start, his splits took off after the All Star break, to the tune of .317/.397/.469. And at 26 years old (two years older than Rusney, with already 31+ WAR under his belt), he's coming into his prime. A premiere RF defender, who can put up a .850 OPS in today's environment with room to grow into even a better hitter is easily the most valuable position player on the market.

People have been this stuff about Heyward for years .. sure - if he's a .900 ops guy then he's a superstar. But if his true offensive talent level hovers near .800 then he's much much closer to Castillo - which was my point. The hype about Heyward has always been about projection - he's been in the league forever - and he's basically the same guy as when he broke in.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

People have been this stuff about Heyward for years .. sure - if he's a .900 ops guy then he's a superstar. But if his true offensive talent level hovers near .800 then he's much much closer to Castillo - which was my point. The hype about Heyward has always been about projection - he's been in the league forever - and he's basically the same guy as when he broke in.

And my point is that you're making a terrible comparison. Castillo is no where near the defender Heyward is, nor is there any reason to feel confident he will ever be the .800 OPS that you want to resolve Heyward to going forward. I'm not sure if you're not adjusted to today's offensive climate, but there were only 17 OFs in baseball that had an OPS over .800 last year. Heyward clocked in at 18th with a .797. His wRC+ ranked 16th at 121, ahead of guys like Betts, Upton, Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez.

He is a far better hitter already than you're giving him credit for and Castillo is no where near his equivalent in any facet of the game. Discounting the fact he's headed into his peak years - despite having "been in the league forever" - is exactly why you're having trouble resolving that he will get such a big contract. Players his age and in this stage of career development hit the market very rarely. Multiple GMs will pony up for that, which is why if you look at any free agent ranking list, he is in the top three players - and first on many - along with Price and Greinke.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

And my point is that you're making a terrible comparison. Castillo is no where near the defender Heyward is, nor is there any reason to feel confident he will ever be the .800 OPS that you want to resolve Heyward to going forward. I'm not sure if you're not adjusted to today's offensive climate, but there were only 17 OFs in baseball that had an OPS over .800 last year. Heyward clocked in at 18th with a .797. His wRC+ ranked 16th at 121, ahead of guys like Betts, Upton, Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez.

He is a far better hitter already than you're giving him credit for and Castillo is no where near his equivalent in any facet of the game. Discounting the fact he's headed into his peak years - despite having "been in the league forever" - is exactly why you're having trouble resolving that he will get such a big contract. Players his age and in this stage of career development hit the market very rarely. Multiple GMs will pony up for that, which is why if you look at any free agent ranking list, he is in the top three players - and first on many - along with Price and Greinke.

I don't think I was suggesting they were equivalent - The current version of Heyward is basically Castillo's ceiling - with the caveat that you are giving major bonus points to Heyward for his defense , which I tend to discount. Lets just say he's a stellar defender while Rusney is merely good. What that is worth is an open question.

But I agree - Heyward is a very good player - but I don't think he's a superstar - or will develop into one for that matter. Therefore I don't want to pay him like one. If, on the other hand, I knew his defensive value was as is stated then its another story. If he really is a 6 WAR player well then he's probably worth a 5/150 or 6/180 deal.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I do agree 4 years is reaching pretty hard on Estrada, and that Sipp probably should of been somewhere on the bottom of the list (but still behind the 3 you listed). I don't see the big problem though on Kennedy (6 straight years of 30+ starts), Freese at 3/$30m, or Rasmus getting 4 even if the per/year strikes me as being too high.

Just to update, Weiters took a qualifying offer (Heyman had him at 3/$42). Estrada took 2/$26 (Heyman had him at 4/$56).

So three guys and no where close on any of them. This trend will not reverse itself, I assure you.

 

[chrisfont9]

Iwakuma's injuries were a finger problem in 2014 and a strained lat in 2015. I'm not sure that's a sign he is breaking down. Also he's been in the AL, and has already made the tough transition from NPB. I bet if they signed him for 3/$36m he'd give them their money's worth. Might even work as a reliever toward the back end of his playing days. I'd take him over Zimmerman.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Do you mind citing some deals that comp a 3/$36 contract for a 35 yo pitcher in the post PED era which makes you prefer that to Zimmermann? Obviously it would depend on what he gets, but where is your break even point? If you could have Zimmermann for 5/$120 which way do you go?

 

[chrisfont9]

Do you mind citing some deals that comp a 3/$36 contract for a 35 yo pitcher in the post PED era which makes you prefer that to Zimmermann? Obviously it would depend on what he gets, but where is your break even point? If you could have Zimmermann for 5/$120 which way do you go?

Pass. I don't think comparing Iwakuma to a bunch of American players is a good use of my time. He's been very steady and will almost certainly require a far less risky deal. Are we talking about a #1 starter? Because Iwakuma definitely isn't that. But between the two I think he'd be more likely to be both useful and affordable.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Pass. I don't think comparing Iwakuma to a bunch of American players is a good use of my time. He's been very steady and will almost certainly require a far less risky deal. Are we talking about a #1 starter? Because Iwakuma definitely isn't that. But between the two I think he'd be more likely to be both useful and affordable.

And I think you could make a pretty good case that Zimmermann isn't quite a #1 starter either, more of a solid #2. I mean, the only thing about him that's clearly better than Buchholz is consistency/durability, and the velocity dip this year might be a red flag on that front. His SIERA over the past three years is not much better than Rick Porcello's (3.54 to 3.66).

Would he make us better? Absolutely. Would he make us enough better to justify 6/140 (or whatever exactly he ends up with) plus a draft pick? And would he improve us so much more than Iwakuma would that he'd justify the price tag difference? I'm skeptical on both counts.

 

[alwyn96]

Ponder this: if Carl Crawford in 2011 had had a 10.8% walk rate, with all his other rate numbers the same, his OPS for that year would have been .740, almost 50 points higher than his actual .694. This would have been enough to push his wRC+ into the 100 range, adding about a full win to his value and making him a net positive player, even with everything else going as it did in that season from hell.

10.8% is Jason Heyward's career walk rate.

Having good plate discipline significantly raises your offensive floor. And Heyward has had it from day one. This makes him entirely unlike Carl Crawford.



3 wins a year in the current roughly $7M/win market will earn $126M over six years--not all that disastrous a shortfall (and that $7M figure may be conservative--I haven't seen a new number lately). Obviously you wouldn't give that kind of contract to a guy with a 3-win ceiling, but a 26-year-old with a 3-win floor? Every day and twice on Sunday. Of course you worry about injury and quirk decline as you would with any long-term deal, but I don't think you worry about a healthy Heyward underperforming a $150M contract.

I'm not saying the Sox should sign Heyward; I don't think we're in a position to, really, though I salivate over the idea of his glove in Fenway's RF. But I don't see why people are talking as if he's a disaster contract waiting to happen.

Sure. You're right that they are not literally the same player. The shape of Heyward's offense is a little different than Crawford's was. Crawford made more contact, Heyward certainly walks more. If Heyward struck out the rate Crawford did at his peak, Heyward's below average hitting 2011 would likely be much better. Heyward does seem to have cut back on his strikeouts lately, although his BB% seems to be trending downward as well. Still pretty solid, though.

I think Heyward would be great in Boston - he's an excellent player just hitting his peak years - but it's hard to see how they get him and a good starter and keep the budget straight. I'm sure Heyward will continue to have some excellent seasons somewhere - hopefully not against the Red Sox too often.

 

[67WasBest]

Sure. You're right that they are not literally the same player. The shape of Heyward's offense is a little different than Crawford's was. Crawford made more contact, Heyward certainly walks more. If Heyward struck out the rate Crawford did at his peak, Heyward's below average hitting 2011 would likely be much better. Heyward does seem to have cut back on his strikeouts lately, although his BB% seems to be trending downward as well. Still pretty solid, though.

I think Heyward would be great in Boston - he's an excellent player just hitting his peak years - but it's hard to see how they get him and a good starter and keep the budget straight. I'm sure Heyward will continue to have some excellent seasons somewhere - hopefully not against the Red Sox too often.

There is a route to this, but like almost everything we offer as suggested deals, extremely unlikely to ever happen

Trade JBJ to Cubs for Baez, years and cost match
Trade X for Harvey, years and cost match
Sign Heyward 9/189

Baez starts at SS, with Marrero as late inning defensive specialist. Harvey leads the rotation. Heyward takes RF, Betts CF, and Castillo LF. Somewhere near $10M cheaper that just signing Price. In this arrangement, Marrero would also have to represent the RHCOF unless you were comfortable with Baez in late innings, in which case they could use the $10M to sign, or obtain, a true RHCOF.

Not saying I endorse this, just pointing out how it might be done.

 

[chrisfont9]

And I think you could make a pretty good case that Zimmermann isn't quite a #1 starter either, more of a solid #2. I mean, the only thing about him that's clearly better than Buchholz is consistency/durability, and the velocity dip this year might be a red flag on that front. His SIERA over the past three years is not much better than Rick Porcello's (3.54 to 3.66).

Would he make us better? Absolutely. Would he make us enough better to justify 6/140 (or whatever exactly he ends up with) plus a draft pick? And would he improve us so much more than Iwakuma would that he'd justify the price tag difference? I'm skeptical on both counts.

Yeah, I think we're nearly in agreement. I'm generally skeptical of pitchers coming from the NL, not that they can't succeed but there is risk and you won't get a discount for it.

 

[DourDoerr]

Trade X for Harvey, years and cost match

Not that I endorse it either, but X for Harvey is also Boras for Boras...

 

[kazuneko]

Trade X for Harvey, years and cost match.

Don't think you are right about this. I'm pretty sure Harvey will be a free agent after the 2018 season while X will be a free agent after the 2019 season.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Don't think you are right about this. I'm pretty sure Harvey will be a free agent after the 2018 season while X will be a free agent after the 2019 season.

Correct

 

[67WasBest]

Don't think you are right about this. I'm pretty sure Harvey will be a free agent after the 2018 season while X will be a free agent after the 2019 season.

Thanks for the correction. That makes DeGrom a year to year match. But like I said, not happening.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Unless he's lying for effect, Dombrowski has made it pretty damn clear that he's enamored with the outfield and will get pitching on the FA market.

"I would feel comfortable going into the season with them," Dombrowski said when asked about Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Rusney Castillo.

"I think they have the ability to be a real dynamic group together. ... Jackie Bradley and Rusney Castillo are in a spot where they showed a lot of good things, and there's no question they'll go into the season as our starting group.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Unless he's lying for effect, Dombrowski has made it pretty damn clear that he's enamored with the outfield and will get pitching on the FA market.

"Lying for effect" seems unnecessarily harsh, but put it this way: what he said about Rusney and JBJ certainly won't make it harder for him to trade them.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

1. Desmond is 30 year old/20 HR shortstop...The 6/$90m estimate may indeed be high in exact terms, but it'll still end up being a decent ballpark for what i expect to be one of this winter's worst contracts.

2. I have no doubts Heyward's age nets him one of this winter's longest deals, which probably gives him the favorite's edge in terms of total money. If your "better deal" definition there is that he gets a higher average and guaranteed per/year salary then both Davis and Upton, I'll take that bet.

1. Don't need you to marry yourself to any team, just don't see anyone out there that is that desperate for a SS. ...Sure, but not at those terms.

2. Jason Hayward will get the most guaranteed money of any positional player on the market this offseason. Both in total and AAV. So you can lock in the bet.

Edit: You can send your $50 to Harrison.

We have Hayward on the books at 8/$184 with two opt outs ($23M AAV). Just keeping track.

 

[MikeM]

Yeah, that's about in line with what I expected. Now it's down to watching Boras do his thing.

(and for Heyman to start hyping up Davis as the golden solution to everybody's problem, of course. He's off to a good start after the winter meetings )

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Have fun waiting for that. Just make sure Harrison gets his $50.

 

[MikeM]

We'll see. Of all agents I trust Boras here to be a stickler on trumping that $23/per AAV.

The market has been fairly quiet on Upton, and he certainly wouldn't of been worth making the bet over on his own, but I wouldn't totally discount the possibility of him playing the role of spoiler here either. Especially in the event he ends up settling for a shorter year contract then either Heyward/Davis get ( and which would still probably end up being my favorite of the 3 at that).

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Yeah, that's about in line with what I expected. Now it's down to watching Boras do his thing.

(and for Heyman to start hyping up Davis as the golden solution to everybody's problem, of course. He's off to a good start after the winter meetings )

Update:

Jason Heyward - 8/$184; two opt outs; $20M signings bonus deferred until 2024 to be paid in four installments of $5M each or in one lump sum if he uses either opt out. Deferrals drop overall value to ~ $177M or $180M depending on if you use MLB or MLBPA calculations; so $22.1M or $22.5M per year.

Chris Davis - 7/$161; no opt outs; $42M deferred with no interest, to be paid in 15 installments from 2023-32 (10 years at $3.5M) and 2033-2037 (5 years at $1.4M). I have yet to see what the deferrals due to the overall total but I think it's safe to assume his yearly is going to be significantly lower. Only thing I've seen is a tweet from Rosenthal that they will drop the value below $150M.

You're down to Upton, unless you want to call me on using the term "AAV" in my confirmation post. I think it's pretty clear Heyward cleared your terms of "If your "better deal" definition there is that he gets a higher average and guaranteed per/year salary then both Davis and Upton, I'll take that bet." but you could certainly call me on using "AAV" (even though it's clearly not what I meant), but I'll leave that choice up to you.

 

[MikeM]

You're down to Upton, unless you want to call me on using the term "AAV" in my confirmation post. I think it's pretty clear Heyward cleared your terms of "If your "better deal" definition there is that he gets a higher average and guaranteed per/year salary then both Davis and Upton, I'll take that bet." but you could certainly call me on using "AAV" (even though it's clearly not what I meant), but I'll leave that choice up to you.

I felt I was pretty clear in this thread that both my stance against your "zero chance" projection and the bet itself was going to revolve around who got the highest per year salary/AAV.

If i was going to call you out on anything it would be the technicality that Heyward didn't get the higher AAV. Honestly though when i saw it earlier tonight I had already written it off as a gentleman's push, barring the lottery ticket chance Upton signs some surprising shorter years type contract.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I felt I was pretty clear in this thread that both my stance against your "zero chance" projection and the bet itself was going to revolve around who got the highest per year salary/AAV.

If i was going to call you out on anything it would be the technicality that Heyward didn't get the higher AAV. Honestly though when i saw it earlier tonight I had already written it off as a gentleman's push, barring the lottery ticket chance Upton signs some surprising shorter years type contract.

That's kind of my point - because highest per year salary is not equal when AAV is. They're two different things and Heyward clearly is way ahead on yearly income. If you want to hang me over the coals on AAV I'll pay up, but there's no "gentlemens push" - the bet is for charity and someone should benefit. So either you consent that in all practical terms I win on Davis and we have Upton to go, or hang your hat on an AAV technicality and I'll pony up. I'd also like to split the payment to include maufmans playground if you're okay with that.

 

[MikeM]

That's kind of my point - because highest per year salary is not equal when AAV is. They're two different things and Heyward clearly is way ahead on yearly income. If you want to hang me over the coals on AAV I'll pay up, but there's no "gentlemens push" - the bet is for charity and someone should benefit. So either you consent that in all practical terms I win on Davis and we have Upton to go, or hang your hat on an AAV technicality and I'll pony up. I'd also like to split the payment to include maufmans playground if you're okay with that.

Again, the bet seemed pretty straight forward to me. Even after i had already conceded the larger years/contract factor you still specifically claimed Heyward would get a higher AAV then both Davis/Upton this winter. He didn't. I'm not hanging my hat on anything other then the initial bet (heck, i even commented a month+ before in the post directly above your latest update that i was waiting on Boras to trump the $23m AAV), which you seem to apparently have an issue with after-the-fact now that things didn't play out exactly as you had anticipated.

You are the one that called me out here and aggressively pushed this bet. If you wanted to back out or alter your specifications on what you stated but didn't actually mean, waiting until after Davis signs wasn't the time to do it. So yeah, feel free to pay up and split payment is fine. If you want to do so while claiming i'm hanging you over the coals in the process, instead of swallowing that little bit of humble pie, that's fine too.

(Don't worry though. Looking like you are still going to get that chance to throw Ian Desmond in my face )

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Take this to PMs please.

 

[effectivelywild]

Doesn't Cespedes' new contract (3 years, 75 million) render the whole argument regarding whether this should be a gentleman's push (due to deferred money) moot, at least based on AAV?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Doesn't Cespedes' new contract (3 years, 75 million) render the whole argument regarding whether this should be a gentleman's push (due to deferred money) moot, at least based on AAV?

It does and I will get a chance soon to make my donation.