Free Agent Bingo

[E5 Yaz]

Predictions from major media outlets as to who the Red Sox could sign in free agency. Feel free to add other lists as you find them

Ken Davidoff, NY Post
Johnny Cueto and Alex Gordon
http://nypost.com/2015/11/06/predicting-where-mlbs-top-30-free-agents-will-land/

Ben Reiter, SI.com
Chris Davis and John Lackey
http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/11/06/reiter-50-free-agent-rankings-david-price-zack-greinke-jason-heyward

Tim Dierkes, MLB Trade Rumors
Johnny Cueto and Darren O'Day
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/2015-16-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Dave Cameron, Fangraphs
David Price and Mark Lowe
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-top-50-free-agent-predictions/

 

[soxhop411]

wait, someone is actually predicting we will sign Lackey? Would he even want to come back here?

 

[DeadlySplitter]

No major consensus as usual

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Hey, if I put a gun to your head and made you choose between Zimmermann and Iwakuma - considering age and price (length of contract) - what would your recommendation be?

Based on the cheat sheet:

Age: JZ 30 vs HI 35
xFIP: JZ 3.82 vs HI 3.27
GB%: JZ 42% vs HI 50%
K%: JZ 20% vs HI 22%
K-BB%: JZ 15% vs HI 17%
SwStr%: JZ 8% vs HI 11%

WAR: JZ 3.0 vs HI 1.8

I assume all of Zimmermann's % stats are perverted due to his facing a pitcher (and #8 hitter) every game - but I don't know how to factor that (more walks to the #8 / more K's to the #9)

1. Zimmerman's had an uncharacteristically down year (more walks, fewer K's, more HR's, higher WHIP). Still, he's been close to 200 IP the past 4 years. His WAR is substantially higher than Iwakuma's (why?)

2. Iwakuma's IP and health are an issue. He pitches in a pitcher-friendly park. He'll be cheaper and fewer years than Zimmermann.

These guys are the 2nd tier of Free Agents that may be a more practical option for the Red Sox.

 

[In my lifetime]

wait, someone is actually predicting we will sign Lackey? Would he even want to come back here?

Reiter is clueless.
Chris Davis ----- really, but 1st the RS would have to heavily subsidize HRam out of town. So not only would the RS have Davis' salary, by HRam's subsidy. I can't imagine this happening.
Lackey ----- was obviously unhappy for whatever reason in Boston reportedly threatening not to pitch for the minimum in Boston, while doing exactly that for the Cardinals and basically bitched his way out of town. There is 0 chance of him coming back. In addition the RS don't need another #2/3 pitcher, they need a #1 or what's the point. Starting pitching depth is not the issue, a premier pitcher is the apparent void.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Reiter is clueless.
Chris Davis ----- really, but 1st the RS would have to heavily subsidize HRam out of town. So not only would the RS have Davis' salary, by HRam's subsidy. I can't imagine this happening.
Lester ----- was obviously unhappy for whatever reason in Boston reportedly threatening not to pitch for the minimum in Boston, while doing exactly that for the Cardinals and basically bitched his way out of town. There is 0 chance of him coming back. In addition the RS don't need another #2/3 pitcher, they need a #1 or what's the point. Starting pitching depth is not the issue, a premier pitcher is the apparent void.

Lackey, not Lester

 

[Traut]

I'm guessing they don't sign any of the marquis free agents. They'll add through free agency but it will be in the bullpen and OF depth. Who they add is anyone's guess. The money that any of the frontline starters are going to get is silly. Especially for a team that is likely gearing up to really make a run in 2017.

 

[derekson]

I'm guessing they don't sign any of the marquis free agents. They'll add through free agency but it will be in the bullpen and OF depth. Who they add is anyone's guess. The money that any of the frontline starters are going to get is silly. Especially for a team that is likely gearing up to really make a run in 2017.

I think Dombrowski will sign a top end FA starter. I'll guess Zimmermann, because I think Price goes to LA and Greinke signs with the Cubs (or maybe vice versa). I don't think guys like Gordon or Davis are likely to be coming to Boston though (unless Hanley or Rusney are shipped out of town, then perhaps something could happen along those lines).

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Chapman and Price.
Gone will be Kelly and Margot.
Kelly will have a better year than Price.

 

[snowmanny]

Alec Brzezinzski of The Sporting News lists Scott Kazmir as Boston's projected #1 target
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb-news/4660119-mlb-free-agents-2015-american-league-teams-offseason-targets-yankees-blue-jays-red-sox-angels

Somebody named Jacob Kornhauser on something called RantSports also predicts John Lackey (!) as well as Jordan Zimmerman
http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2015/10/30/predicting-where-the-top-15-mlb-free-agents-will-sign-in-2015/

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Price is supposed to be all-but-locked up by the Cubs given his relationship with Madden and desire to win.

 

[kazuneko]

Alec Brzezinzski of The Sporting News lists Scott Kazmir as Boston's projected #1 target
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb-news/4660119-mlb-free-agents-2015-american-league-teams-offseason-targets-yankees-blue-jays-red-sox-angels

Somebody named Jacob Kornhauser on something called RantSports also predicts John Lackey (!) as well as Jordan Zimmerman
http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2015/10/30/predicting-where-the-top-15-mlb-free-agents-will-sign-in-2015/

Where do they come up with this stuff? I think an actual game of free agent bingo might better predict this free agent class than Brezinski's article. He actually has Cleveland - a team that has never given out a bigger contract than the disastruous Nick Swisher deal (4 years/ 56 million) - signing the top position player in the class, Jason Heyward (predicted to garner a $200 million contract). It's pretty clear that his only source is a flawed imagination.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Where do they come up with this stuff? I think an actual game of free agent bingo might better predict this free agent class than Brezinski's article. He actually has Cleveland - a team that has never given out a bigger contract than the disastruous Nick Swisher deal (4 years/ 56 million) - signing the top position player in the class, Jason Heyward (predicted to garner a $200 million contract). It's pretty clear that his only source is a flawed imagination.

What, you don't think the Red Sox main problem this season was not enough mediocre left-handed starters?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

1. Zimmerman's had an uncharacteristically down year (more walks, fewer K's, more HR's, higher WHIP). Still, he's been close to 200 IP the past 4 years. His WAR is substantially higher than Iwakuma's (why?)

2. Iwakuma's IP and health are an issue. He pitches in a pitcher-friendly park. He'll be cheaper and fewer years than Zimmermann.

The underlined bits are the answer to the bolded bit. Zimmermann accumulated more WAR because he pitched a lot more innings--the difference is almost exactly proportional on the fWAR side (5:3), which makes sense because his FIP and Iwakuma's were almost the same (3.75 and 3.74 respectively).

 

[E5 Yaz]

Heyman lists his Top 50 by his projected contract size. Links Sox to Price and O'Day, but makes few, if any, firm team predictions.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25367153/inside-baseball-top-50-free-agents-ranked-by-dollars-and-projections

 

[MikeM]

A fairly solid projection list there from Heyman imo, and a decent reference guide some people should take a peak at before simply throwing targeted solution names out there. Highlights why i keep coming back to Zimmerman as our most probable type sign as well. While I do like Cueto's upside more at face value, the potential difference suggested above would be enough to sway me in the other direction.

Pity whatever sucker buys that heavy into Chris Davis. The bloody murder i screamed over Sandavol last winter would pale in comparison if that ended up being us. So maybe there is a potential plus to being "stuck" with Hanley.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

That list is laughably bad, both in ranking of FAs and predictions on contracts. There really is too many jokes to even get into specifics. Though Heyman is usually pretty near the bottom in what is kind of a fool's errand to begin with, so it's not a surprise.

 

[lxt]

I like the idea of signing all free agents to build up starting rotation and pen. Price because he knows the AL East and has proven he can pitch against all of them. O'Day & Sipp for the pen. See if Price would go for 3 yrs/$100 million.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

He won't. Why would he take 3/$100 when 7/$200 is probably out there?

 

[MikeM]

That list is laughably bad, both in ranking of FAs and predictions on contracts. There really is too many jokes to even get into specifics. Though Heyman is usually pretty near the bottom in what is kind of a fool's errand to begin with, so it's not a surprise.

Other then the complete reach on Cespedes, i'd be curious to actually hear some of those "laughably bad" specifics.

 

[kazuneko]

He won't. Why would he take 3/$100 when 7/$200 is probably out there?

He will get at least as much as Scherzer got - 7/$210M. So yeah, he obviously would have no interest in a short deal for an extra $3 million of AAV. A short deal is probably not happening either way, but if it was to happen you're probably looking at something crazy like 3/$130M..

 

[lxt]

He won't. Why would he take 3/$100 when 7/$200 is probably out there?

Because he makes a boat load of money ($33.3 Million/yr) and can go back out at 32 and get Greinke money.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Other then the complete reach on Cespedes, i'd be curious to actually hear some of those "laughably bad" specifics.

Let's start with Chris Davis getting more than Jason Heyward. Or Upton getting a higher AAV. There is literally zero chance of either of those happening.

Marco Estrada is widely considered a candidate to be the first player to accept a qualifying offer, but he has him getting 4/$56? Rasmus and Kennedy can also be filed under that same department.

David Freese is your 27th best FA? Who is giving Desmond 6/$90? Rollins' defense is still holding up to the tune of $8M? Tony Sipp doesn't clock in but O'Day, Clippard and Soria are all getting multi year deals to the tune of $7M+ per year?

I could go on, if you like.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Because he makes a boat load of money ($33.3 Million/yr) and can go back out at 32 and get Greinke money.

Somehow I think he'd prefer to lock in $30ish over the next seven years than risk getting hurt for an extra $3M a year over three. But good luck with that.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

If that Heyman list is anywhere close, I'll be screaming in disbelief all winter. Some of those contracts are nuts. I understand the industry is awash with cash, but in an era of cord cutting, this is a bubble and somebody will pay. 7/182 for Chris Davis, I just shake my head.

Edit: Mobile phone typos.

 

[Fireball Fred]

The draft pick factors in too. There are only a very few of the 25 QO free agents who don't become too costly once that's taken into account. Price and Cueto are free of that, of course.

 

[MikeM]

Let's start with Chris Davis getting more than Jason Heyward. Or Upton getting a higher AAV. There is literally zero chance of either of those happening.

Marco Estrada is widely considered a candidate to be the first player to accept a qualifying offer, but he has him getting 4/$56? Rasmus and Kennedy can also be filed under that same department.

David Freese is your 27th best FA? Who is giving Desmond 6/$90? Rollins' defense is still holding up to the tune of $8M? Tony Sipp doesn't clock in but O'Day, Clippard and Soria are all getting multi year deals to the tune of $7M+ per year?

I could go on, if you like.

Both Davis and Upton offer a higher amount of middle or the order appeal then Heyward, which in itself always tends to sell fairly well when it's coming off the top shelf in free agency. Without Ben Cherington out there to give Heyward the Rick Porcello treatment, i'd personally put the chances of one or both of those guys getting a higher per/year salary at a lot better then your literal zero.

I do agree 4 years is reaching pretty hard on Estrada, and that Sipp probably should of been somewhere on the bottom of the list (but still behind the 3 you listed). I don't see the big problem though on Kennedy (6 straight years of 30+ starts), Freese at 3/$30m, or Rasmus getting 4 even if the per/year strikes me as being too high.

Somebody will be out there giving biggest name on the board Desmond $90m'ish for same general reason somebody was out there giving Pablo Sandavol $95m last winter. Positional need with limited available alternatives, combined with a bit of desperation, always tends to result in a few blatant Day 1 stinkers.

I'm sure you could go on with the picking as well, but none of that will really negate that this list is probably one of the better reference sources for ball park figures i've seen to date. Which certainly can offer some value to many here before hitting reply on their plan that starts off by suggesting we sign David Price for 6/$170m or Cueto for 5/$100m.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

It's really not that good of a resource. Search Heyman's history on these predictions and you will see he generally hits on about 5 of his 50, giving some obvious leniency on exact terms. He's a mouth piece for agents, especially Boras.

And you're right, I could continue to easily continue to pick, but it's really not necessary. Let's put it this way.

1. Find me a team that you think will give Desmond that contract after his shitty year.
2. I will gladly bet you $50 to the Jimmy Fund, or one of the other charitable causes we have going right now that Heyward signs a better deal than Upton or Davis.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

...Highlights why i keep coming back to Zimmerman as our most probable type sign as well. While I do like Cueto's upside more at face value, the potential difference suggested above would be enough to sway me in the other direction...

Question for debate: Zimmermann for more years or Iwakuma for fewer years?

Seattle Times

Baseball sources have said Iwakuma is seeking at minimum a three-year contract with a per year salary north of $10 million. Even with some injury issues the last two seasons, Iwakuma has been a bargain for the Mariners with his yearly salary never exceeding $7 million, which is well below market rate for a veteran No. 2-3 starter.

Could Iwakuma get a three-year, $36 million contract in the open market? It’s certainly possible giving the inflation for free agent contracts. He was heavily scouted by teams in the final months of the season in anticipation of his pending free agency.

There are concerns about the injuries and the innings accrued on his arm over the years. Iwakuma’s velocity has declined some each of the last three seasons. But his splitfinger fastball and revitalized curveball have helped offset the velocity issues.

I keep thinking one of those 2 guys is pitching for the Red Sox next year. Price/Cueto/Greinke will benefit from a bidding war between the Cubs/Dodgers/Yankees (yeh right, the Yankees aren't going after one of those three...) leaving the Red Sox with sloppy seconds - which I hope is what happens because the top 3 will get ridiculous contracts both in money and years.

I, too, lean towards Zimmermann because of his track record and age - even if Iwakuma represents less of a potential burden.

 

[MikeM]

It's really not that good of a resource. Search Heyman's history on head predictions and you will see he generally hits on about 5 of his 50, giving some obvious leniency on exact terms. He's a mouth piece for agents, especially Boras.

And you're right, I could continue to easily continue to pick, but it's really not necessary. Let's put it this way.

1. Find me a team that you think will give Desmond that contract after his shitty year.
2. I will gladly bet you $50 to the Jimmy Fund, or one of the other charitable causes we have going right now that Heyward signs a better deal than Upton or Davis.

1. Some of the bigger FA dominos need to start falling before I'd feel comfortable making any specific type predictions like that, but I'll be sure to get back to you on that latter. Desmond is 30 year old/20 HR shortstop with a great track record at staying on the field. His shitty year saw him hit .262/.331/.446 in the second half, which i'm guessing ends up being enough to convince somebody to write off the first half as more slump then substance. The 6/$90m estimate may indeed be high in exact terms, but it'll still end up being a decent ballpark for what i expect to be one of this winter's worst contracts.

2. I have no doubts Heyward's age nets him one of this winter's longest deals, which probably gives him the favorite's edge in terms of total money. If your "better deal" definition there is that he gets a higher average and guaranteed per/year salary then both Davis and Upton, I'll take that bet.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

1. Some of the bigger FA dominos need to start falling before I'd feel comfortable making any specific type predictions like that, but I'll be sure to get back to you on that latter. Desmond is 30 year old/20 HR shortstop with a great track record at staying on the field. His shitty year saw him hit .262/.331/.446 in the second half, which i'm guessing ends up being enough to convince somebody to write off the first half as more slump then substance. The 6/$90m estimate may indeed be high in exact terms, but it'll still end up being a decent ballpark for what i expect to be one of this winter's worst contracts.

2. I have no doubts Heyward's age nets him one of this winter's longest deals, which probably gives him the favorite's edge in terms of total money. If your "better deal" definition there is that he gets a higher average and guaranteed per/year salary then both Davis and Upton, I'll take that bet.

1. Don't need you to marry yourself to any team, just don't see anyone out there that is that desperate for a SS. The Yankees seemed lined up for him and then they seem pretty content with Grigorious. The only team that jumps out to me to have that big a need at SS is the Mets and they're not spending that. Maybe the Padres? Sure, but not at those terms.

2. Jason Hayward will get the most guaranteed money of any positional player on the market this offseason. Both in total and AAV. So you can lock in the bet.

I'm not sure if you've ever read Heyman's annual article like this before, but in a space where no one will be correct very often, he is remarkably wrong more than most others. He is a Boras mouthpiece and basically the CBS version of Cafardo. He's garbage and if you follow him at all you should know that.

And no, Sipp should not be behind those other 3 guys, but that's nitpicking.

Edit: You can send your $50 to Harrison.

 

[alwyn96]

Fangraphs' reader poll has Heyward at $23M, Cespedes at $22M, and both Upton and Davis at $20M AAV. They predict 4/$60M for Desmond.

MLBTR has Heyward at $20M, Davis at $24M, Cespedes at $23.3M, and Upton at $21M AAV, with 5/$80M for Desmond (Mets, Padres, White Sox).

Probably all depends on how much you think GMs are willing to pay for Heyward's defense.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

And his youth. Dude is a 6+ WAR player and is 26 yo. Guys don't generally get to FA that early. I have zero doubt he will clock in higher than anyone else on the positional side.

Edit: a far more useful tool, I think anyway, is fangraphs crowdsourcing. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-82-free-agents/

I still don't think Cespedes gets that much, but I think that's a far better gauge of you want to try to project the FA class.

Double edit: I didn't think the fangraphs crowdsourcing was readers as opposed to writers, so not sure if we are citing same source.

 

[alwyn96]

Yup, I was citing the very link you posted. I think fangraphs people generally tend to underestimate contract size/length, but not always.

I think you're right on about his age being a huge factor, but I'm not as sure as you are about his contract. Defense can decline quickly, and I could see a GM thinking Heyward's skillset looked a little too similar to Carl Crawford's for comfort. Of course, it only takes one GM to offer a huge contract, so you may be right. Heyward's got a lot going for him. Should be an interesting offseason.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Yup, I was citing the very link you posted. I think fangraphs people generally tend to underestimate contract size/length, but not always.

I think you're right on about his age being a huge factor, but I'm not as sure as you are about his contract. Defense can decline quickly, and I could see a GM thinking Heyward's skillset looked a little too similar to Carl Crawford's for comfort. Of course, it only takes one GM to offer a huge contract, so you may be right. Heyward's got a lot going for him. Should be an interesting offseason.

The thing about Heyward - and Gordon as well - is that so much of their value is tied up in their defense. And , as we all know and argue about - modern statistical analysis of defense is still pretty crude - especially in samples fewer than a couple of years of data.

So - Heyward may indeed be a 6 WAR player - but then again he may only be a 3-4 WAR player. And who wants to give a 150/6 year contract to a 3-4 WAR player?

Not to mention, as was noted above, elite defensive skills will seriously deteriorate with age.

For me - if I'm giving out mega contracts to OFs - I prefer players who have demonstrated the ability to be excellent hitters - as opposed to defenders.

 

[Darnell's Son]

Teams have their own defensive metrics, though. The data we have is insufficient, but theirs may not be, or rather, they may believe their data is sufficient.

 

[MikeM]

The thing about Heyward - and Gordon as well - is that so much of their value is tied up in their defense. And , as we all know and argue about - modern statistical analysis of defense is still pretty crude - especially in samples fewer than a couple of years of data.

So - Heyward may indeed be a 6 WAR player - but then again he may only be a 3-4 WAR player. And who wants to give a 150/6 year contract to a 3-4 WAR player?

Not to mention, as was noted above, elite defensive skills will seriously deteriorate with age.

For me - if I'm giving out mega contracts to OFs - I prefer players who have demonstrated the ability to be excellent hitters - as opposed to defenders.

This is basically my line of thought as well.

In the grander scheme of things i'm just not sure there is a Ben Cherington out there to buy that heavily into defensive WAR, and/or some absolute and borderline obsessive "age 26 = guaranteed to see sizable improvement" philosophy. At least not on a guy you could argue had his best season to date at age 20, and who's now clocked almost 3500 PA's at the MLB level. I mean if it was the Sox making that deal i know I'd have a big problem adding that supporting logic up. If anything my guess is that Heyward gets the years, minus paying him for the offensive stats he hasn't shown the overall ability to put up yet, with a player friendly opt out after 2-3.

That, and Boras does better on a per/year scale for what i believe is his only mega deal client this winter. Power is obviously getting to be a more scarce commodity these days, and somebody is buying big on Davis this winter in hopes they get the 2013/2015 version.

 

[The Celtbot]

This made me laugh....

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports that Craig Breslow will tell teams that he wants a chance to be a starter next season.

Breslow's final two appearances of 2015 were as a starter, but they're the 35-year-old's only two starts out of 524 career appearances in the majors. The left-hander throws four pitches and doesn't have a platoon split, so it's a little surprising he's never been tried as a starter before. However, whether a club considers him for a potential rotation spot next spring remains to be seen.

 

[Fireball Fred]

What MikeM and BCsMJY say about Heyward/Gordon and OF defense seems to apply to Chris Young as well - Sox have OF defense, really need offense. This is true, I think, even of a fourth OF, as all three presumptive starters could play CF. I like Young, but the ideal 4th OF for this team is a RHH slugger for LF, or a 4-corners guy,

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Rasmus getting 4 even if the per/year strikes me as being too high.

One down.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14116014/colby-rasmus-reportedly-accepts-qualifying-offer-houston-astros

Rasmus the first to accept a QO rather than test the market.

 

[MikeM]

One down.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14116014/colby-rasmus-reportedly-accepts-qualifying-offer-houston-astros

Rasmus the first to accept a QO rather than test the market.

Not really that surprised. There is a few names and scenarios on this list that are subject to whether they take a $15.8m QO, which in a few case they probably should (Murphy is another one imo)

Not making the one year bet on himself and entering the open market i still believe he could of been in line to get a 4 year deal though.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

If there was any chance of Rasmus getting four years, even at a lower AAV than Heyman cited, he wouldn't have taken the QO. Same goes for anyone else. But please, continue to think he's a good source and then double back when he looks foolish.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

As an aside, relevant ESPN Insider article today about FA markets and $100M players, their histories and futures. I'll quote a relevant portion but obviously since it's paid access, I'll link the rest.

It's sort of amazing that you can't take away more from past big contracts, but those really are the only noticeable differences between the good and bad contracts. Either way, if you were to take this mix to this year's free-agent class, there's a clear recommendation: Jason Heyward. He has above-average speed, has been a tremendously valuable defensive player and also happens to be the youngest player in this year's class.

But Heyward is the only position player in this year's class who profiles as a player worth $100 million-plus. While Justin Upton is still just 28 and has some speed, he doesn't have the defensive value. Yoenis Cespedes is fast, but he's 30, and the defensive numbers are unclear. Alex Gordon is the second-oldest of the top-10 position-player prospects.

He goes on to list Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts, Carlos Correa and George Springer as the the four most likely under 25 guys to warrant such a contract and have them be worth it.

Full article can be found here. http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/14112576/heyward-five-players-profile-safe-100-plus-million-bets-mlb

 

[MikeM]

If there was any chance of Rasmus getting four years, even at a lower AAV than Heyman cited, he wouldn't have taken the QO. Same goes for anyone else. But please, continue to think he's a good source and then double back when he looks foolish.

Not if Rasmus believes he can have that big year and position himself into making a lot more money next winter. Pretty sure both Heyman and I were simply projecting what we thought the guy could get on the open market (again, i thought his figure was high)....but that actually needed to happen first.

Reading that ESPN insider piece i'd almost want to guess it was Ben Cherington writing it btw. On that note, and with all the speculation talk today on Bradley being traded, i just pray it doesn't end up being us that lets Heyward's age romanticize us into signing what's going to go down as one of this winter's biggest albatross contracts. The Upton deal ends up being a better overall payout. Bookmark that.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I'm 95% convinced your posts are performance art at this point. Gjge.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Defense can decline quickly, and I could see a GM thinking Heyward's skillset looked a little too similar to Carl Crawford's for comfort.

Ponder this: if Carl Crawford in 2011 had had a 10.8% walk rate, with all his other rate numbers the same, his OPS for that year would have been .740, almost 50 points higher than his actual .694. This would have been enough to push his wRC+ into the 100 range, adding about a full win to his value and making him a net positive player, even with everything else going as it did in that season from hell.

10.8% is Jason Heyward's career walk rate.

Having good plate discipline significantly raises your offensive floor. And Heyward has had it from day one. This makes him entirely unlike Carl Crawford.

So - Heyward may indeed be a 6 WAR player - but then again he may only be a 3-4 WAR player. And who wants to give a 150/6 year contract to a 3-4 WAR player?

3 wins a year in the current roughly $7M/win market will earn $126M over six years--not all that disastrous a shortfall (and that $7M figure may be conservative--I haven't seen a new number lately). Obviously you wouldn't give that kind of contract to a guy with a 3-win ceiling, but a 26-year-old with a 3-win floor? Every day and twice on Sunday. Of course you worry about injury and quirk decline as you would with any long-term deal, but I don't think you worry about a healthy Heyward underperforming a $150M contract.

I'm not saying the Sox should sign Heyward; I don't think we're in a position to, really, though I salivate over the idea of his glove in Fenway's RF. But I don't see why people are talking as if he's a disaster contract waiting to happen.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

So - Heyward may indeed be a 6 WAR player - but then again he may only be a 3-4 WAR player. And who wants to give a 150/6 year contract to a 3-4 WAR player?

If the high bid on Jason Heyward was only going to be 6 years/$150 million he would have had his Red Sox press conference yesterday, I hope. Dude is going to get close to $200 million this offseason, and he'll have an opt-out in four or five years to go and try for it again.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

If the high bid on Jason Heyward was only going to be 6 years/$150 million he would have had his Red Sox press conference yesterday, I hope. Dude is going to get close to $200 million this offseason, and he'll have an opt-out in four or five years to go and try for it again.

This is a link to the highest MLB contracts :

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/

There are seven position players with contracts in excess of 200m .. and I'm sure the general consensus would be that most - if not all - of these would be considered among the worst contracts ever given out - the ARod, Cabrera, Cano, Votto, Fielder and Pujols contracts range anywhere from ridiculously bad to franchise destroying, unmitigated disasters.
And Stanton's contract would join that list if he doesn't opt out.

And you think that Jason Heyward belongs in that company? On current level of performance? On projected future? You (or any GM) willing to give him a contract in excess of 200 million better be pretty confident in their evaluation of the defensive component of his skill set because the offense sure as hell ain't worth 200m.

As a point of reference I would bring up the name Rusney Castillo - they are actually rather similar players - excellent defensive OFs with limited batting skills. Heyward's offense is better but not at elite levels. Now Rusney's considered an overpay at his current 10.3m a year. Is the difference between Castillo and Heyward worth 20 million dollars a year?

Maybe a better comparison is Betts - similar offensive and defensive profiles (low .800ops) while Betts has far more speed. If Betts was 27 and a FA would you give him 200m?

Edit: I just had a look at Dave Cameron's FA predictions and you are basically parroting what he said: an 8-9 year front loaded contract with an opt out. If a player has an virtually guaranteed opt-out after year 5 should it even be considered a 9 year contract?

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

If a player has an virtually guaranteed opt-out after year 5 should it even be considered a 9 year contract?

Maybe not from the player's perspective, but from the perspective of a team assessing risk, I would say yes, since you are assuming all the risk.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

As a point of reference I would bring up the name Rusney Castillo - they are actually rather similar players - excellent defensive OFs with limited batting skills

That's absolutely absurd. Jason Heyward has a career wRC+ of 118 (that's better than Dustin Pedroia) and he has been over 120 in four out of six seasons. If Rusney Castillo ever touches a 120 wRC+ in a full season, every Red Sox fan should be ecstatic. Heyward is not the elite middle-of-the-order masher some hoped he would be, but he's a very good hitter, not a guy with "limited batting skills".