His contact rate is barely up though, 67.0% vs 65.5%.
This year, he has 16 BB and 67 K in 251 PA, last year was 14 and 63 in 223.
He’s walking the same, striking out a bit less- but still a lot.
Extreme Makeover: The Jarren Duran Edition
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
This year, he has 16 BB and 67 K in 251 PA, last year was 14 and 63 in 223.
He’s walking the same, striking out a bit less- but still a lot.
His "neutral" luck numbers based on statcast would be .273/.323/.414 which is still a solid line for a center fielder with average defense. Certainly that is a very valuable player to have on the team and if that is Duran's new baseline, then we have CF locked up for several years.
But wait, that's not all!!!
I put "neutral" in quotes because xBA doesn't quite manage to adjust for speed at the very top of the spectrum....it takes sprint speed into account, but I remember reading an article recently that says the top 5-10% of the sprint speed spectrum still overperforms xBA on the whole, and Duran falls into the 95th percentile in that category, so his xBA probably undercuts his true expecting BA by a little.
Lastly, Duran may develop a bit further both on power and contact skill. His K% has crept down from 35.7% to 28.3% to 26.7% in the last 3 years in the majors. His exit velocity has crept upwards too. So there may reason to believe some of this can help offset his inevitable regression on BABIP.
But wait, that's not all!!!
I put "neutral" in quotes because xBA doesn't quite manage to adjust for speed at the very top of the spectrum....it takes sprint speed into account, but I remember reading an article recently that says the top 5-10% of the sprint speed spectrum still overperforms xBA on the whole, and Duran falls into the 95th percentile in that category, so his xBA probably undercuts his true expecting BA by a little.
Lastly, Duran may develop a bit further both on power and contact skill. His K% has crept down from 35.7% to 28.3% to 26.7% in the last 3 years in the majors. His exit velocity has crept upwards too. So there may reason to believe some of this can help offset his inevitable regression on BABIP.
When he's on an extreme heater, his strikeouts also seem to disappear. In 24 July plate appearances, he's struck out exactly once. Now, he also hasn't walked in that same stretch... but when you're slashing 585/585/1125, who needs walks?
The biggest change I see in Duran is that he seems more mature as a player. He has a better idea as to how to read and track fly balls. He's seems to be a much smarter base runner than he previously was. I also like to think that he may have been a bit humbled and motivated by the fact that the man involved in his most embarrassing MLB moment effectively took his job. I think there are other factors as well.
I think there’s plenty of room for Rafaela and Duran to coexist on a roster, not least because Rafaela has an arm that plays anywhere, while Duran is probably suited best for CF/LF. And of course they hit from different sides of the plate.
You could imagine a complex set of platoons where Yoshida plays LF mostly at home, with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF, but DHs on the road with Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF. I guess Refsnyder or another OF is in right on the road. I guess you then have a home DH platoon, perhaps Refsnyder and some cheap LH slugger (Enmanuel Valdez?)
This would be a scenario where neither Verdugo nor Turner is retained, which I don’t think is especially likely.
You could imagine a complex set of platoons where Yoshida plays LF mostly at home, with Duran in CF and Rafaela in RF, but DHs on the road with Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF. I guess Refsnyder or another OF is in right on the road. I guess you then have a home DH platoon, perhaps Refsnyder and some cheap LH slugger (Enmanuel Valdez?)
This would be a scenario where neither Verdugo nor Turner is retained, which I don’t think is especially likely.
The juicing sprinters weren't using steroids to get faster, there isn't a lot that helps that... The steroids help with muscle fatigue and recovery, though, so they could help you keep your top speed longer. A sprinter trying to run top speed for 100, 200 or 400 meters will absolutely be helped to maintain speed by steroids.
Since linedrives have a BABIP of .678, having 7% more line drives than average should result in 47 BABIP points above average.
Add in Duran's higher ground ball percentage and faster than average speed, and it's no shock he's got an elevated BABIP. Where his new baseline falls based on his new batted ball profile, is hard to predict, but 50-60 points higher than average might actually be realistic.
I actually wonder what the biggest offseason difference is if Duran went to a sports psychologist. This happened last year and I his reaction struck me as almost 100% psychological:
View: https://twitter.com/johnleuzzimjs/status/1550843540720214018?s=46&t=4DK5sD-8gsSKFExcsnEJqg
View: https://twitter.com/johnleuzzimjs/status/1550843540720214018?s=46&t=4DK5sD-8gsSKFExcsnEJqg
Steroids most certainly do help with explosiveness and therefor sprint speeds. Distance runners (people who want to sustain speed for longer) use EPO and other methods to boost red blood cell count. Just check out the list below, and see what sprinters and other athletes got busted for:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_doping_cases_in_athletics
Except he doesn't hit a much higher percentage of ground balls than the average player, he's at 43.3% vs the AL average of 42.2%. And I showed how that is only 1.5 more hits, which is barely going to impact his BABIP.
I really apologize for my ignorance on this stuff... but contact rate just means "putting the ball in play" and doesn't account for where. I know the general theory behind BABiP is that hitters have very little control over where their hits go (or only averaging around .300 of control) but there's always been guys that have just focused on contact that I can imagine they would have a little extra control over that... and suggesting that it's 10% more control than "average" would create a .400 BABiP, no?
Seriously apologize for probably being 100% wrong about all this and I'll go back to bed. (I wish)
I think 10% more control would be quite a lot. I mean, maybe if it's 1919 and you're Ty Cobb.
But to sustain a .400 BABIP you generally speaking need to have excellent bat-to-ball skills and yes, control over where the ball goes... And then, even then, with a guy like peak Ichiro, your BABIP is still only gonna average around .350 or .360. Maybe for a season you'll be at .400. as I posted above, it happens even for slower guys like Joey Cotton or Manny Ramirez.
Thanks for the line drive BABIP stat- very helpful. I think the biggest thing here, at least compared ti last year, is that he’s converting a lot of ground balls into line drives. Seems like he’s more aggressive, has more of a plan at the plate, and probably better pitch recognition. Imagine much of this is simply a result of being more comfortable and confident.
He's spoken about this to an extent. I've seen interviews where he has said that his confidence was low and he was scared of failing last year, which led to hesitancy which just causes more screw-ups. He more or less withdrew from his teammates because he thought he was letting them down and they didn't/wouldn't like him. He came into spring training this year and realized (or perhaps was told) his teammates would embrace him no matter what. As a result, he relaxed and became more confident all around. I think it shows in the results, especially defensively. He's getting better jumps and seems to be trusting himself and his instincts more than he used to. It hasn't turned him into JBJ, but he's now passable out there.
I have to respectfully disagree. Turning Duran into a platoon player is a mistake. His dynamic impact on the lineup is stunted. He needs to see more lefties in order to be more comfortable and become a daily force. He's not a kid but he has shown an ability to learn quickly. Let's see if we have a Kenny Lofton type player on our hands.
He's always been protected against LHP, he's got relatively few ABs against them over the course of the 3 years he's appeared in the majors. And he's 26, so most of his development/learning has already taken place.
There's really nothing wrong with sitting a guy against his same-side platoon. Cora is merely maximizing his effectiveness. And it's working.
Duran has been so great this year that it's very tempting to just play him every day. But you're right - he's been hugely successful being put in a position to succeed (facing RHP). Which is awesome, and the results have been fantastic.
Here are his splits:
vs RHP: .325/.376/.532/.908
vs LHP: .278/.325/.417/.742
I mean, it's not like he's been BAD against lefties. He's just mashed righties. I think he would be ok playing every day, but without question his overall numbers would be doing down.
One of the questions is: who would be better against LHP: Duran or Refsnyder? And the answer is obvious.
vs LHP:
Duran: .278/.325/.417/.742
Refsnyder: .346/.463/.449/.912
So if you platoon those two, you're getting a .910 ops player in the outfield, which is pretty awesome.
I know Refsnyder doesn't play CF. But I think (if I've been following these moves correctly) that Refsnyder tends to play when Duran doesn't, and they make the appropriate defensive shift.
Especially with a LHB. Jimy Williams sort of launched Trot Nixon's career that way.
Trot is a great example of a guy who was used very effectively despite 2 extremely large limitations: awful against LHP and a mediocre-to-poor defensive RFer. But he mashed RHP and so started against them, and when a LHP came in or it was late in the game and the Sox had a lead, he'd be replaced either by a pinch-hitter or the Darren Lewis/Gabe Kaplers of the world in the field.
A good manager puts his players in a position to succeed. Cora is the latest example of that in regards to Duran.
Unfortunately Trot never learned how to hit lefties. I had the same recollection of Troy O'Leary too, but his splits weren't quite so pronounced.
Most players don't ever really learn to hit equally well against their same-side pitcher. There's always platoon splits. Some are most pronounced than others, of course, and some hit well enough anyway that it's no handicap.
David Ortiz hit 170 OPS points lower against LHP than RHP over the course of his HoF career. Of course, he hit .981 OPS against RHP and .817 against LHP so it was hardly catastrophic. Still, the split was there.
And therein lies the decision-making point as to whether to make a player full time despite platoon splits. Papi OPSing 817 against LHP doesn't kill you. Trot OPSing 630, and Duran OPSing 552 against LHP does, in fact, kill the offense.
I agree with the way they've used Refsnyder... but using Duran's career splits as the baseline when has made a huge leap this season oversells the issue.
This season, Duran has a .905 OPS against righties (153 wRC+) & .742 OPS against lefties (98 wRC+).
Acting like he's fully formed when he has 110 career PAs against lefties, including 40 this season, could cut off some actual value that may be there now & into the future, which obviously wasn't last year when he had a .690 OPS against righties & .449 against lefties.
It is hard to know if Duran's incredible improvement this season includes a meaningful step up against lefties, since he's only had 36 ABs against LHP this year. But, he's put up pretty good numbers: .278/.325/.417/.742. That .742 OPS would put him just outside the top 30 for MLB outfielders for overall OPS, lining up below Kelenic, Springer, Schwarber, and Conforto.
So, maybe he has improved against lefties. But, as long as the Sox are playing competitive games, Refsnyder has to play against LHP. FWIW, Verdugo has really struggled against LHP this year, .243/.339/.320/.659. Maybe Duran should occasionally start while Verdugo sits. Either way, the Sox don't need to make a career-long determination at this point. Duran has been a revelation, Cora seems to know how to put him in spots to succeed, and he can continue to develop against LHP during the off-season and next spring.
Last edited:
Ortiz also did eventually learn to hit LHP after initially sucking bad against them when he got here in 2003....then seemed to struggle with them again during his initial 2008-2010 decline, but then was pretty good against them after that (albeit noisy with down years in 2013/2015). He retooled his swing in 2011 which is when the 2nd phase of his hitting career took off....obviously Papi was a pretty unique talent being able to do that which is part of why he's a legend here.
Papi's OPS vs LHP by year with BOS (total season OPS in parenthesis):
2003: .674 (.961)
2004: .785 (.983)
2005: .894 (1.001)
2006: .988 (1.049)
2007: .852 (1.066)
2008: .741 (.877)
2009: .716 (.794)
2010: .599 (.899)
2011: .989 (.953)
2012: .985 (1.026)
2013: .733 (.959)
2014: .893 (.873)
2015: .703 (.913)
2016: .867 (1.021)
Is it just my imagination, or is it true? I have always thought that the lefty-righty splits at the plate were more pronounced with LH batters than RH batters. LOOGYs were a thing, but we never had ROOGYs!
And it's possible that Duran will improve to the point where the split is less pronounced, even if it still exists. This year, anyway, the bar for Duran is a bit higher, given Refsnyder's hitting vs. LHP. There are other factors, of course, like Duran's speed and (maybe) defense, that might close the gap. Benches are smaller now, but I always go back to my first real platoon learning -- the 1973 Strat-o-Matic Orioles, when Earl Weaver let LHB rookie OFs Al Bumbry and Rich Coggins get roughly 800 PAs -- OPS+ of 154 and 134, respectively -- and only 50 or so were against LHPs. Go all in or not at all.
Last edited:
This is one of the ways Tampa always seems to get more out of their players than when those same players are on other teams. They put players into situations where they're more likely to be successful. Players with platoon splits are used on the side where they're stronger. Players who have shown a relative weakness against pitchers throwing from one side are used primarily against pitchers throwing from the other side.
I'd love to watch Duran play every day but maybe it's better for the team to have Refsnyder and Duvall get those AB's against lefties.
I dont think Duvall's platoon split is anything like Duran or Refsnyder, BUT, using Duvall against LHPs with big splits will maximize his (declining) usefulness.
There were definitely ROOGYs but they tended to be guys who were submarine style or sidearmed pitchers who succeeded against righties. I think the lack of RH hitters having dramatic platoon splits is largely repetition as there are way more right handed pitchers so they see them constantly from a young age.
Also since there are far more RHP than LHP in professional ball, any RHB who can't hit RHP at all will be quickly weeded out and never make the majors. It's self-selecting.
This is false, you need to take the difference between line drive BABIP and non-line drive BABIP and multiply by .07.
Good call. My point is definitely reduced, both by the math fail and the reduced BABIP improvement when the math is done correctly.
Since ground ball BABIP averages .272 and fly ball around .133, his 7% higher line drive percentage should be closer to 33 points higher than average, rather than 47. Not trivial, but not as substantial.
The better question still remains if his line drive percentage this season reflects his future skill level or if the luck come in hitting more linedrives AND luck on balls in play.
Last edited:
Since Duran had a sweet run around the bases to lead off Monday's game and had another's hustle double yesterday, I thought I'd bump this thread. To add a little additional content, he's hitting .312, which would be 3rd in the AL if he qualified. I looked at his PA rate since July 1 to estimate if he'd qualify with the 502 PAs required. His rate since july 1 has been 3.42 (remember, he often sits versus left-handers). If he plays every game, all remaining 55, at that rate, he'll finish with 499 PAs. So he's in range.
He also is 2nd in the AL in doubles, one behind the leader, and leads the team in fWAR, by a pretty considerable amount (2.7 vs. Verdugo's 2.1).
He also is 2nd in the AL in doubles, one behind the leader, and leads the team in fWAR, by a pretty considerable amount (2.7 vs. Verdugo's 2.1).
I believe in all these guys because I'm an eternal optimist, but, no I certainly didn't see THIS coming. He sure adds a bunch of fun, doesn't he?
His defense is way better, too. His jumps and routes aren't perfect, but as long as they aren't, like, in the wrong direction like they felt last year, his speed really allows him to shine out there.
Paul Pasqualoni, onetime coach of the Syracuse Orangemen football team, was once asked why the most athletically gifted player on the team was getting limited snaps.
His response "It doesn't matter how fast you are, if you're running in the wrong direction."
I dig the new nickname they mentioned on the broadcast yesterday "Captain Chaos" - he is certainly in pitchers' heads once he's on base now. Most fun on the basepaths since Ellsbury.
He's better than Ellsbury because he's more daring (although Ellsbury's steal of home againt Petit was one of my all-time favorites). View: https://youtu.be/XBi8KkQvjvo
JD sold that steal. No wonder Pettite was taken by surprise.
I am also pretty sure he homered in that same AB.
I am also pretty sure he homered in that same AB.
"Hey man, I'm trying to HIT here and the bases are loaded, well NOW they're not ".
Apparently Duran is dealing with mental health struggles again, as we all know these things are endemic and very difficult to erase completely over time. He posted this on his IG story yesterday:
Hang in there kid, and get whatever help you need! You won over SOSH this year and I’m very much looking forward to more.
