Mugsys Jock said:
I think you're taking a leap of faith here. As opposed to being confident 2B is in WMB's wheelhouse, this could very much as easily suggest they took a look at him there and decided it probably wasn't a good idea.
Your point about having Brock/Hererra stashed at AAA still holds, but a.) having no backup 2B on the active roster is something of a risk, and b.) if you need to call up one of those guys for anything less than Pedroia going on the DL, you're right back where you started with excess on the left side of the infield.
Do you seriously think the Red Sox:
1. Aren't able to assess WMB's ability to play 2B during practice/warm ups?
2. CAN assess WMB's ability to play 2B during 4 innings of mistake free play there in ML games?
3. Would ever put a player into a live ML game at a position they haven't verified at least passing ability to cover before the fact?
If they were willing to put him into ML games at 2B it's likely because they had done some preliminary work there any where convinced that it was viable. I don't see them sticking him out there blind on a lark.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
No, relying on any player, Pedroia or otherwise, to play every single day is a poor way to plan for a season. Even at his peak, the Orioles still carried a player capable of spelling Cal Ripken. And Pedroia has never been a 162-game iron horse in the Ripken mold, no matter how hard-nosed he may be.
If the plan is to go without a viable back-up at 2B on the roster (and I still refuse to go along with WMB as anything but an emergency option), then you are banking on Pedroia staying healthy for the full 162 OR if he goes down, that it is a DL-worthy injury that locks you into losing him for a minimum of two or three weeks. There's no margin at all for a tweaked hammy or a twisted ankle or the flu that would only reasonably keep him off the field for 2-3 games. That's the kind of thing you can gamble on for a 10-day stretch during the season or during the playoffs where there are built in days off and you'd rarely need to give your best players a game off. You don't do that as the primary plan for a full 162-game season.
So you're unwilling to even have a legitimate discussion then. WMB played at three different ML positions during the 2013 season, one of them was 2B. Guys developing positional versatility starts somewhere, typically either in the high minors or early in their ML career, almost always when they're either A. blocked by a better player or B. scuffling and looking for another way to help the team.
What's the magic wrinkle about playing 2B that makes it impossible for WMB to handle the job? The reaction time down the 3B line is shorter than at 2B. His range (when healthy) has always been considered very good by 3B standards. The arm is obviously more than up for it. It's a matter of technique, namely turning DPs and the like. Something the team felt he was capable enough to let him try in two real ML outings, where he did actually turn a double play I might add.
Saying it's not even an option is a logically bankrupt argument.
joe dokes said:
The horse is beyond flogged. Dogs throughout the world have already eaten it. But anyway . . . .
Its not really disputed that WMB is a better baseball player than Herrera or Holt. And I'll even go along with the idea that it's OK to have him as the emergency/really short-term backup 2B. But in my view the other side of the equation isn't whether WMB can back up 2B, its whether WMB plus others have enough trade value to bolster the team and organization sufficiently to offset the likely dropoff from WMB to Herrera and the potential issue if Drew or XMB sucks balls or suffers a season-ending injury. Is having WMB as a backup/part-timer/insurance his best use?
My view depends on an assumption that Drew at SS and X at 3B is a slightly better lineup in 2014 that X at SS and WMB at 3B. The Sox are probably pretty close to agnostic on that part of it, and its admittedly close, if you consider the probablitities and possibilites of performance. But I would be very surprised if the Sox sign Drew and then don't use WMB as part of a deal. OTTH-- I also think its a fair point to not want to lose WMB's RH power potential, now a scarce commodity. OTFH--It might make him even more valuable in trade, and expendable if the Sox have X (for a long time) and Drew (for 2 years) and possibly Cecchini (down the road).
Its so close that I can't imagine getting really pissed at any of the likely outcomes being discussed here.
I think the reason this is being beaten to death is that the 2-4 possibilities are all plausible, realistic enough, and contain both risks and rewards of roughly even dimensions. Its a pretty unusual situation.
Valid points, though I don't see where the team can do better for itself at the ML level or high minors via a WMB trade.
Where are the needs that they could legitimately address with a trade? Some AAA OF depth maybe? At this point the team has good options nearly everywhere else, and isn't even too bad off in terms of corner OF depth. Short of getting an elite prospect back from someone I don't see how the return is greater than what WMB could provide the Red Sox.
Meanwhile, my view is that if the Red Sox knew that they had a hypothetical starting position player who would post an OPS+ below 80 I and everyone else would expect them to do everything possible to replace that player. So why should we overlook and devalue ~400 ABs (or more, depending on injury) at that level simply because it's a "utility" player when a clear path to eliminate that weakness, for at least a season or two, is readily available? Tradition of blowing a roster spot on this year's Pedro Sririacha?
It isn't a hard thought project to construct a model where all of WMB, X, and Drew get >400 ABs between them without serious injuries in 2014. Sacrificing ~100 ABs of the best hitter in the bunch (who we can't even predict right now mind you, as their projections are all pretty closely grouped together) in order to have the layers of injury protection and the complete removal of sub-replacement level scrubs from daily use is a pretty small price to pay.
Also, to me the single biggest organizational value the Red Sox need to focus on right now is answering SS and 3B long term (3-4 years) in 2014. That means deciding if X can play SS, if so who of WMB and Cecchini is the long term 3B, and if not how do the three of them shake out into their ML roles. If it's the later Drew would also be the best option for SS the next couple years. So as far as I can see, if a one or two year overpay on Drew can buy them the 2014 season to sort out the left side of the infield there isn't a whole lot of opportunity cost they could possibly lose from that scenario. The two most important things to have figured out organizationally coming out of 2014 are who the every day guys on the left side infield will be and which starters get first crack at replacing Peavy/Dempster/maybe Lester in 2015.