Drew v. 2.0

[lambeau]

Starting Drew and his .195 LHP split last night makes one wonder...could they have plans for him next year? Career .263/.328/.433 isn't bad. Good glove.
 
Are they considering the Boras Plan of Drew staying, with Bogaerts at third ?
 
If so, either they let Mike go and give first to  Middlebrooks,or
 
maybe you sweet-talk Drew into a platoon once in a while to take advantage of his RHP career split of .274/.341/.447, and
 
keeping Mike because Bogaerts and Middlebrooks are still untested,  rotate them both through short, third, and second--like last night.

 

[bosockboy]

I think the possibility of Drew staying can't be ignored.  He's probably a top 5 shortstop and fits the team well.  

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

There are better places for the Red Sox to spend what Drew will command on the open market. Lot of teams out there that need a SS way more than the Red Sox do. I wouldn't mind getting some lower-profile vets for SS/3B depth, obviously, but keep in mind that there's already some quality cover in the minors--wouldn't be shocked if Cecchini was ready to roll by mid-2014.

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

I think the possibility of Drew staying can't be ignored.  He's probably a top 5 shortstop and fits the team well.  

 
If you believe that that Xander and Middlebrooks are ready to start in 2014, it is horrible roster management to keep Drew.  The Sox would be much better off spending the money elsewhere.  

 

[bosockboy]

 
If you believe that that Xander and Middlebrooks are ready to start in 2014, it is horrible roster management to keep Drew.  The Sox would be much better off spending the money elsewhere.  

Where though?  They are set on pitching, is there a positional player available that would have more impact than Drew?  They have to fill 1B obviously but WMB would be a strong possibility there.  If the money is better spent on Abreu, then so be it.

 

[lambeau]

If you let Napoli and Drew walk, you are banking heavily on the kids, and...Carp? A little risky.
 
So given a choice, do you want Drew at $10 M or Napoli at $13 M ? Or both?
 
I get the feeling they really like Drew. Despite the way he looked swinging at low-away breaking balls last night.

 

[SoxLegacy]

I agree with PP--I don't see how resigning Drew is in keeping with the long range plans of the Red Sox. He's not going to be looking for another 1 year deal and he's not a utility-type guy who can play multiple positions, so the team would have XB, Drew, and WMB for two positions, and still need to have someone who can spell Pedroia. Additionally, Drew's another year older and would be taking playing time from X. How is the team going to know if Bogaerts is really a shortstop if he doesn't get to play there on a regular basis? I don't see how Drew has value to this team in 2014 at the price the organization would pay in terms of salary, player development, and team flexibility. You can make a case for Napoli on another short term deal and hope that his hip stays together and the foot problems don't hobble him so much.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I see Ellsbury as kind of an expensive luxury. JBJ can't stay in AAA forever... so it's either trade him or play him. If you sign JE, you have to get what you can for JBJ. I feel it would be a much better idea to let JE walk and put those funds towards another hole... like 1B.

 
Ellsbury and Bradley are not mutually exclusive.  You can use both in the outfield next year and be just fine.  In fact, that might be the optimal use of resources over the off season considering how little opportunity there is to improve anywhere else.  They will very likely re-sign Salty to something in the neighborhood of the Victorino contract.  First base will be more difficult to fill, but they should be in on Jose Abreu and are probably the favorites there.  If they land him, they are in good shape.  They have the money for both.
 

If you let Napoli and Drew walk, you are banking heavily on the kids, and...Carp? A little risky.
 
So given a choice, do you want Drew at $10 M or Napoli at $13 M ? Or both?
 
I get the feeling they really like Drew. Despite the way he looked swinging at low-away breaking balls last night.

 
I don't think bringing Drew back would be seen as a problem by the front office.  I imagine they'd make a qualifying offer and let him know that while they'd love to have him back next year, that he'd be part of a platoon with Xander and would not see many at bats against left handed pitchers.  Xander would also split time against right handed pitchers with Middlerbooks, preferably ones with good sliders and cutters.
 
There is plenty of room for all three if Drew is inclined to accept a qualifying offer.  I don't think he will be, so he'll probably just turn into a draft pick, but making that offer is a no brainer regardless of what they do at first base.  And as I said above, I'd rather see them target Abreu than bring Napoli back, even if he tears it up down the stretch.

 

[Doctor G]

 
Ellsbury and Bradley are not mutually exclusive.  You can use both in the outfield next year and be just fine.  In fact, that might be the optimal use of resources over the off season considering how little opportunity there is to improve anywhere else.  They will very likely re-sign Salty to something in the neighborhood of the Victorino contract.  First base will be more difficult to fill, but they should be in on Jose Abreu and are probably the favorites there.  If they land him, they are in good shape.  They have the money for both.
 
 
I don't think bringing Drew back would be seen as a problem by the front office.  I imagine they'd make a qualifying offer and let him know that while they'd love to have him back next year, that he'd be part of a platoon with Xander and would not see many at bats against left handed pitchers.  Xander would also split time against right handed pitchers with Middlerbooks, preferably ones with good sliders and cutters.
 
There is plenty of room for all three if Drew is inclined to accept a qualifying offer.  I don't think he will be, so he'll probably just turn into a draft pick, but making that offer is a no brainer regardless of what they do at first base.  And as I said above, I'd rather see them target Abreu than bring Napoli back, even if he tears it up down the stretch.

 I would like to see them bring back Drew if only to stop the ongoing new SS every year  scenario. Bogaerts to 3B and Middlebrooks to 1B.If there has to be an ongoing position merry go round let it be at first.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

Given how much value Ben and the new (relatively new, anyway) front office puts on roster depth and flexibility, I think it makes a lot of sense to bring Drew back.  Certainly on a short deal it's a no brainer.  
Drew/Bogarts/WMB can effectively platoon the SS/3B position, allowing each to start at least every 2 out of 3 games.  Playing WMB at 1B some allows for even more starts for all of them. 
 
Considering the lack of quality 1B that will be available, a WMB/Carp/Nava rotation at 1B seems like an efficient use of both roster spots and payroll since all three can play other positions.  

 

[Wake's knuckle]

As far as JBJ vs. JE go... it comes down to the cost per differential win. Yes, for sure there's room for both of them in the outfield -- but they are both CFs and that's where their value is maximized. JE might be worth two or even three wins more than JBJ next year, although I would expect that number to go down as JE ages and JBJ develops. Looking long term, JE may (or may not) be worth a couple of more wins than JBJ, but man you are spending a LOT of money for a couple of wins (maybe) over 5-6 years. So while yes you could keep both, in my opinion it would be a better use of resources to let JE walk, get the draft pick, and use those resources to try to improve at another -- or several -- positions. Same thing with Drew. XB is probably ready and capable of putting up similar numbers. Why pay 10 million to keep drew? If you want to make a depth move, you don't spend 10 mil to do it... even if you can. You never know when that financial flexibility will help you make a move you otherwise wouldn't consider.

 

[dbn]

Stephen Drew is very unlikely to sign a 1-year deal this offseason.

 

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

Given how much value Ben and the new (relatively new, anyway) front office puts on roster depth and flexibility, I think it makes a lot of sense to bring Drew back.  Certainly on a short deal it's a no brainer.  
Drew/Bogarts/WMB can effectively platoon the SS/3B position, allowing each to start at least every 2 out of 3 games.  Playing WMB at 1B some allows for even more starts for all of them. 
 
Considering the lack of quality 1B that will be available, a WMB/Carp/Nava rotation at 1B seems like an efficient use of both roster spots and payroll since all three can play other positions.  

You do realize that Drew will have suitors who want him as their starting SS, right? There are many words for paying a guy starter money to be a part-time player, but "efficient use of payroll" is not among them.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

You do realize that Drew will have suitors who want him as their starting SS, right? There are many words for paying a guy starter money to be a part-time player, but "efficient use of payroll" is not among them.

You do realize that he is the starting shortstop here under this scenario, right?  If it feels better to think of Drew as the starting SS, Bogaerts as the starting 3B, and WMB as the starting 1B, then by all means do so.  I was trying to point out that even if Bogaerts and WMB demonstrate the ability to consistently hit major league pitching well enough to claim full time jobs next year, and even if all three stay healthy for the entire season, there are still plenty of at bats to be had.  But the reality is that all of this probably won't happen, and bringing Drew back provides insurance and flexibility for this reality.  
 
Yes, there will be other suitors for Drew, and likely even suitors who are willing to pay him more and/or offer a longer deal than the Sox are willing to.  But if he signs elsewhere, the impetus won't be more playing time than he can/will receive here.  

 

[Rasputin]

You do realize that he is the starting shortstop here under this scenario, right?  If it feels better to think of Drew as the starting SS, Bogaerts as the starting 3B, and WMB as the starting 1B, then by all means do so.  I was trying to point out that even if Bogaerts and WMB demonstrate the ability to consistently hit major league pitching well enough to claim full time jobs next year, and even if all three stay healthy for the entire season, there are still plenty of at bats to be had.  But the reality is that all of this probably won't happen, and bringing Drew back provides insurance and flexibility for this reality.  
 
Yes, there will be other suitors for Drew, and likely even suitors who are willing to pay him more and/or offer a longer deal than the Sox are willing to.  But if he signs elsewhere, the impetus won't be more playing time than he can/will receive here.  

 
Of course it will, because next year's starting shortstop is Xander Bogaerts and everyone in baseball knows it.
 
I don't get it. Drew signed here on a one year make good deal because he needed a healthy season and we needed someone to do the job while Bogaerts and Iglesias matured.
 
Drew has done a good job and Bogaerts has matured. He's recognized as a tremendous prospect throughout baseball and he has given every indication that he's ready to make the transition to the majors.
 
Everything at shortstop has worked beautifully even to the point of Iglesias babipping his way to getting us Jake Peavy. Why are we trying to fuck with that?
 
From an absolute production standpoint, if Middlebrooks and Bogaerts are going to be in the lineup regardless, you've got a pretty good chance of finding a first baseman who is more productive than Drew. Why are we trying to fuck with that?
 
It's different in the outfield where, if you assume JBJ is in the majors in 2014, re-signing Ellbury is essentially replacing Gomes and Nava and it's not clear that there are a lot of quality options that just cost money.

 

[Drek717]

You do realize that he is the starting shortstop here under this scenario, right?  If it feels better to think of Drew as the starting SS, Bogaerts as the starting 3B, and WMB as the starting 1B, then by all means do so.  I was trying to point out that even if Bogaerts and WMB demonstrate the ability to consistently hit major league pitching well enough to claim full time jobs next year, and even if all three stay healthy for the entire season, there are still plenty of at bats to be had.  But the reality is that all of this probably won't happen, and bringing Drew back provides insurance and flexibility for this reality.  
 
Yes, there will be other suitors for Drew, and likely even suitors who are willing to pay him more and/or offer a longer deal than the Sox are willing to.  But if he signs elsewhere, the impetus won't be more playing time than he can/will receive here.  

In your example you're taking a ton of ABs away from Carp at 1B (the only position he's acceptable at defensively) despite Carp quite possibly being the best offensive player of the four, and under team control for low money.
 
It isn't cost effective to give Drew $10M as the SS who splits time with Bogaerts, who is the 3B splitting time with WMB, who is the 1B splitting time with Carp when that means that:
1. Bogaerts' offensive value over league average for his position will be reduced.
2. WMB's offensive value over league average for his position will be reduced.
3. Drew is almost a lock to hit worse than Mike Carp in 2014, but will see significantly more ABs.
 
The only arguments for retaining Drew then is defense and depth.  The defense argument hinges on Drew being a big upgrade over Bogaerts (dubious, since Drew for his career has always scouted as league average defensively, which is supported by a career -3.9 UZR/150), versus the defensive comparisons of Bogaerts v. WMB at 3B (probably a wash at best, WMB is a good 3B), and WMB v. Carp at 1B (where WMB hasn't played at all).  The depth argument presumes that Drew stealing ABs from Carp is worth eight figures more than Carp getting those ABs and Brock Holt working as the MI, or a low cost FA signing to fill that role.
 
If the logic is to have a ton of SS/3B capable depth I'd argue we'd be better off as the team taking a 1 year flyer on Jhonny Peralta next year post-suspension as he was hitting well this year and has logged over 200 games at 3B in his career.  As a low cost veteran backup who lets Bogaerts actually be a full time SS he'd be hard to beat, if you can look past the biogenesis stigma.
 
The only way Drew makes sense is if the team gambles on the QO and Drew actually accepts.  Then he's overpaid but at least it's only for one year.  Otherwise he's getting a multi-year deal and the Sox don't have a multi-year need for him.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

 
Of course it will, because next year's starting shortstop is Xander Bogaerts and everyone in baseball knows it.
 
I don't get it. Drew signed here on a one year make good deal because he needed a healthy season and we needed someone to do the job while Bogaerts and Iglesias matured.
 
Drew has done a good job and Bogaerts has matured. He's recognized as a tremendous prospect throughout baseball and he has given every indication that he's ready to make the transition to the majors.
 
Everything at shortstop has worked beautifully even to the point of Iglesias babipping his way to getting us Jake Peavy. Why are we trying to fuck with that?
 
From an absolute production standpoint, if Middlebrooks and Bogaerts are going to be in the lineup regardless, you've got a pretty good chance of finding a first baseman who is more productive than Drew. Why are we trying to fuck with that?
 
It's different in the outfield where, if you assume JBJ is in the majors in 2014, re-signing Ellbury is essentially replacing Gomes and Nava and it's not clear that there are a lot of quality options that just cost money.

The disconnect is from viewing this from different viewpoints.  If the Sox are 100% committed to making Bogaerts the starting SS next year and with no reservations, then yes, this conversation is moot because Drew won't be back.  They will still undoubtedly offer him the qualifying offer, but only as tactical move to receive the compensation pick.  Also, if Drew receives a compelling 4-5 year offer, then he is gone.  The Sox certainly won't tie up the SS position for several years.  
 
If, however, they aren't 100% sure that Bogaerts is ready to consistently hit MLB pitching (and keep in mind we are still talking about a 20 year old who was in AA a month or so ago), then they may very well be interested in bringing Drew back.  Yes, it is possible to pick up a 1B for cheaper for the same offensive production, a guy like Mike Napoli, for instance, or his equivalent this year. But doing this also means sacrificing depth, roster flexibility, and defense, all things this current front office seems to value.  
 
Essentially, Drew becomes Insurance for both WMB and Boegarts, and even if both young guys produce, they can still make it work with playing time.  Yes, this means paying more than just signing a Napoli type at 1B.  But you always overpay for insurance, right until it is needed, that is.  

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Broke this out from the Napoli thread. 

 

[Rasputin]

The disconnect is from viewing this from different viewpoints.  If the Sox are 100% committed to making Bogaerts the starting SS next year and with no reservations, then yes, this conversation is moot because Drew won't be back.  They will still undoubtedly offer him the qualifying offer, but only as tactical move to receive the compensation pick.  Also, if Drew receives a compelling 4-5 year offer, then he is gone.  The Sox certainly won't tie up the SS position for several years.  
 
If, however, they aren't 100% sure that Bogaerts is ready to consistently hit MLB pitching (and keep in mind we are still talking about a 20 year old who was in AA a month or so ago), then they may very well be interested in bringing Drew back.  Yes, it is possible to pick up a 1B for cheaper for the same offensive production, a guy like Mike Napoli, for instance, or his equivalent this year. But doing this also means sacrificing depth, roster flexibility, and defense, all things this current front office seems to value.  
 
Essentially, Drew becomes Insurance for both WMB and Boegarts, and even if both young guys produce, they can still make it work with playing time.  Yes, this means paying more than just signing a Napoli type at 1B.  But you always overpay for insurance, right until it is needed, that is.  

 
I'm not even sure where to start.
 
If teams applied your "100% no reservations" standard to prospects then no prospects would ever play. It's an absurd standard, not one that has any reflection in reality, and not one that is at all relevant to bringing Drew back.
 
If the team weren't convinced that Bogaerts is ready for the transition, they wouldn't have brought him up before 9/1 and wouldn't be making a point to get him some playing time.
 
Drew is going to get a multi-year offer. Maybe not five years. Maybe 2-3 years. The Sox don't want to do that. If there is an insurance policy signed, it isn't going to be Drew.

 

[Byrdbrain]

I don't think Drew will be back but I am really interested to see if they give him a qualifying offer. I assume that is still in the $13m range, I don't see him getting quite that from anyone else as an AAV though I could see him get 3/30 or something along those lines.
 
My assumption is that they won't take the chance that he takes the short term cash but it will be something I'll be watching.

 

[mabrowndog]

From an absolute production standpoint, if Middlebrooks and Bogaerts are going to be in the lineup regardless, you've got a pretty good chance of finding a first baseman who is more productive than Drew. Why are we trying to fuck with that?

 
Drew has put up 2.3 fWAR so far, which ranks 62nd in the majors among position players. Napoli has produced 2.2. With the massive downward positional adjustment in value for first basemen, there are only 8 who've out-produced Drew in 2013: 
 
6.4 Chris Davis, BAL
5.6 Joey Votto, CIN
5.5 Paul Goldschmidt, ARI
3.8 Edwin Encarnacion, TOR
3.1 Freddie Freeman, ATL
3.1 Brandon Belt, SFG
2.9 Allen Craig, STL
2.4 Adrian Gonzalez, SDP
 
While I agree with you that bringing back Drew to play SS in place of (or even platooning with) Bogaerts isn't the best idea, especially since it'll likely require a commitment of 3+ years, I highly doubt the Sox will be able to replace (let alone eclipse) Drew's value by acquiring another first baseman. Re-signing Napoli (who will certainly cost more than $5M this winter, brittle hip or no brittle hip) would essentially be a push.

 

[mabrowndog]

I don't think Drew will be back but I am really interested to see if they give him a qualifying offer. I assume that is still in the $13m range, I don't see him getting quite that from anyone else as an AAV though I could see him get 3/30 or something along those lines.
 
My assumption is that they won't take the chance that he takes the short term cash but it will be something I'll be watching.

 
Oh, I think they'll absolutely extend such an offer. If he takes it, he'll still be highly coveted on the trade market.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

The fact that 1B generally outproduces SS offensively is true, relatively speaking and when viewed in a vacuum, but given the lack of quality 1B available this offseason, and the fact that it is the one position of need for the Sox for the near future changes the conversation a bit.  

 

[Reverend]

The disconnect is from viewing this from different viewpoints.  If the Sox are 100% committed to making Bogaerts the starting SS next year and with no reservations, then yes, this conversation is moot because Drew won't be back.  They will still undoubtedly offer him the qualifying offer, but only as tactical move to receive the compensation pick.  Also, if Drew receives a compelling 4-5 year offer, then he is gone.  The Sox certainly won't tie up the SS position for several years.  
 
If, however, they aren't 100% sure that Bogaerts is ready to consistently hit MLB pitching (and keep in mind we are still talking about a 20 year old who was in AA a month or so ago), then they may very well be interested in bringing Drew back.  Yes, it is possible to pick up a 1B for cheaper for the same offensive production, a guy like Mike Napoli, for instance, or his equivalent this year. But doing this also means sacrificing depth, roster flexibility, and defense, all things this current front office seems to value.  
 
Essentially, Drew becomes Insurance for both WMB and Boegarts, and even if both young guys produce, they can still make it work with playing time.  Yes, this means paying more than just signing a Napoli type at 1B.  But you always overpay for insurance, right until it is needed, that is.  

 
The thing is, Drew and his agent, a certain Mr. Boras, would know all this too. I mention Mr. Boras not because of his rep for getting max money but because he gets max money because he is exceedingly good at his job and seems to really take the concerns of his players seriously; ultimately, he's not a shark but ethical agent.
 
Drew knows that his starting position at SS would be at risk if he signs with the Red Sox. Therefore, there is every reason to believe he would be looking for an offer that ensures that they are committed to him as a starter and not just insurance as you call it--and bear in mind he took less money this year for a commitment from the Red Sox that he would be the starter (so much for the belief that Boras always goes only for max money). I really don't see the Red Sox making such an offer.
 
Here's a nice short piece I found on Drew's and Boras's decision making with respect to coming to Boston that I think can shed some light on the broader context. Drew is a baller, which probably factored in the team's decision to bring him here, but may also be why he can't stay.

 

[Rasputin]

I don't think Drew will be back but I am really interested to see if they give him a qualifying offer. I assume that is still in the $13m range, I don't see him getting quite that from anyone else as an AAV though I could see him get 3/30 or something along those lines.
 
My assumption is that they won't take the chance that he takes the short term cash but it will be something I'll be watching.

 
The argument against making the QO is what, that he might take it?
 
That's not a compelling argument for two reasons. First, it is almost certainly wrong. Second, a pretty good two way shortstop on a short contract is going to be relatively easy to trade.
 
 

 
Drew has put up 2.3 fWAR so far, which ranks 62nd in the majors among position players. Napoli has produced 2.2. With the massive downward positional adjustment in value for first basemen, there are only 8 who've out-produced Drew in 2013: 

 
When I said "absolute production" what I meant was offense, which I thought was clear, but I guess wasn't.
 
When the choice is between a combination of Drew, Middlebrooks, and Bogaerts, and Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, and First Baseman X, I think it's pretty clear that the defense is going to be acceptableeither way and the latter is likely to bash more balls around.

 

[Drek717]

The fact that 1B generally outproduces SS offensively is true, relatively speaking and when viewed in a vacuum, but given the lack of quality 1B available this offseason, and the fact that it is the one position of need for the Sox for the near future changes the conversation a bit.  

Not when they have:
1. A quality 1B option in-house already in Mike Carp.
2. A promising 25 year old AAA'er has started taking time at 1B while also growing into his frame's power potential, all without losing his beastly OBP capabilities in Alex Hassan.
3. Have a RHH catching prospect with defensive question marks but a strong AAA track record suggesting he's a solid bat in Ryan Lavarnway, who could pick up 1B this winter/spring training.
4. Are going into a winter with one of the best international FA options for 1B available in a very long time with Jose Abreu defecting.
 
I'd say they have plenty of options to get greater offensive production than what Drew an offer, likely by a nice margin, either for less money or for roughly equal money (depending on what Abreu costs) and all with greater long term viability.  Drew does nothing for a 2015 Red Sox with Bogaerts starting every at at SS and either WMB or Cecchini starting at 3B, but Drew is almost definitely getting a multi-year deal.  So what do we do with him after the insurance policy for Bogaerts is no longer needed?

 

[Sox and Rocks]

 
I'm not even sure where to start.
 
If teams applied your "100% no reservations" standard to prospects then no prospects would ever play. It's an absurd standard, not one that has any reflection in reality, and not one that is at all relevant to bringing Drew back.
 
If the team weren't convinced that Bogaerts is ready for the transition, they wouldn't have brought him up before 9/1 and wouldn't be making a point to get him some playing time.
 
Drew is going to get a multi-year offer. Maybe not five years. Maybe 2-3 years. The Sox don't want to do that. If there is an insurance policy signed, it isn't going to be Drew.

 
Your misquoting me here.  I wrote "100% committed" and "no reservations" separately.  The idea being that they are committed enough to Bogaerts to not feel the need to use their financial flexibility and strength to hedge this position.  Now, the no reservations part is admittedly too strong of language.  Obviously no team ever plays a prospect without any reservations, whatsoever, but I think/hope you can see how it applies to their valuation of Drew in addition to their valuation of Bogaerts, and specifically for next year.  It isn't as simple as they like Bogaerts and think he can play, so Drew is definitely gone.  

 

[Rasputin]

The fact that 1B generally outproduces SS offensively is true, relatively speaking and when viewed in a vacuum, but given the lack of quality 1B available this offseason, and the fact that it is the one position of need for the Sox for the near future changes the conversation a bit.  

 
Considering that one of the FA options available is the incumbent, and that he has played acceptable defense and outhit Drew in what has been a disappointing year for him, I really don't think it changes the conversation a bit.
 
When you also consider that the Sox will be going into the off season with six starting pitchers in the majors and at least four starting pitching prospects at AAA, I rather suspect that there are going to be some strong trade talks and that they will include discussions of major league ready first base prospects.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Your misquoting me here.  I wrote "100% committed" and "no reservations" separately.  The idea being that they are committed enough to Bogaerts to not feel the need to use their financial flexibility and strength to hedge this position.  Now, the no reservations part is admittedly too strong of language.  Obviously no team ever plays a prospect without any reservations, whatsoever, but I think/hope you can see how it applies to their valuation of Drew in addition to their valuation of Bogaerts, and specifically for next year.  It isn't as simple as they like Bogaerts and think he can play, so Drew is definitely gone.  

 
It really pretty much is.
 
There is no way this front office doesn't think Bogaerts will be ready for the majors some time in 2014.
 
There is no way Drew is going to sign a one  year deal.
 
That's pretty much all there is to it.

 

[Doctor G]

Even with his slow start Drew has an.819 OPS in Fenway this year. That combined with his demonstrated ability to play Fenway's notoriously tough infield is reason enough to bring him back.
Bogaerts power projections are real and are to a large extent based on him filling out to a degree that might hinder his defense at Short. He could very well  end up in left.
Middlebrooks is a good enough athlete to make the transition to first, and after spending most of the summer in Pawtucket  shadowed by Bogaerts' I bet he would be welcoming of a position shift that offered him a shot at a position where the organization does not have a talent glut.
How bout a little package deal with Boras  for Ellsbury and  Drew.

 

[Rasputin]

Even with his slow start Drew has an.819 OPS in Fenway this year. That combined with his demonstrated ability to play Fenway's notoriously tough infield is reason enough to bring him back.
Bogaerts power projections are real and are to a large extent based on him filling out to a degree that might hinder his defense at Short. He could very well  end up in left.
Middlebrooks is a good enough athlete to make the transition to first, and after spending most of the summer in Pawtucket  shadowed by Bogaerts' I bet he would be welcoming of a position shift that offered him a shot at a position where the organization does not have a talent glut.
How bout a little package deal with Boras  for Ellsbury and  Drew.

 
The fact that Bogaerts is likely to end up playing another position in five years is rather completely fucking irrelevant to where he should play now. If he can play shortstop now--and he can--then he should play shortstop now.

 

[Drek717]

Even with his slow start Drew has an.819 OPS in Fenway this year. That combined with his demonstrated ability to play Fenway's notoriously tough infield is reason enough to bring him back.
Bogaerts power projections are real and are to a large extent based on him filling out to a degree that might hinder his defense at Short. He could very well  end up in left.
Middlebrooks is a good enough athlete to make the transition to first, and after spending most of the summer in Pawtucket  shadowed by Bogaerts' I bet he would be welcoming of a position shift that offered him a shot at a position where the organization does not have a talent glut.
How bout a little package deal with Boras  for Ellsbury and  Drew.

1. .819 OPS in Fenway.  .833 OPS v. RHP.  Break it down a step further and you have a .934 OPS at home v. RHP, while against LHP at home he's .588, against LHP away he's .654, and against RHP away he's .718.  His batting average at home against RHP is .323, away against RHP it's .222 and it's .194/.197 respectively for LHP.  Kinda sounds like a one trick pony to me.  His home numbers come on the back of a .388 BABIP including 10 2Bs and 5 3Bs on 40 total hits, for what that's worth.
 
Being a good Fenway hitter isn't reason enough to keep someone around as long as half the games are played on the road every year.  When that same guy carries a significant platoon split, even favoring RHP it gets even less desirable.
 
2. Bogaerts might fill out so much that he has to move off SS, but I don't think anyone expects that to be a concern for his ability to play SS in 2014, or probably even 2015 and 2016.  By then Drew isn't a viable answer anyway.  When/If Bogaerts has to move off SS the Sox will need to find an answer at that time, not buying insurance for something that might happen years down the road.
 
3. If the looming threat of Garin Cecchini is enough to shake WMB's confidence what do you think having Mike Carp on the same ML roster competing for the same positional ABs will do?  Also, he's athletic enough to be our best defensive 3B with a bat that has average to plus potential value there.  At 1B he'd be a middling offensive player with many of his key defensive skill sets wasted (like his throwing arm).
 
4. You mean the package that the Mets are likely going to target almost their entire off-season budget towards acquiring?  The same Mets who are only 1 game "behind" Toronto (2 fewer losses) for the 10th pick in the draft, i.e. where their first round pick becomes protected from QO compensation?  I'm sure the Mets would gladly give up their 2nd and 3rd rounders to land Ells and Drew.  Do you think the Sox would pay dollar for dollar with the Mets for them when not doing so nets the Sox two first round sandwich picks and a ton more draft slot cash to play with?

 

[Reverend]

1. .819 OPS in Fenway.  .833 OPS v. RHP.  Break it down a step further and you have a .934 OPS at home v. RHP, while against LHP at home he's .588, against LHP away he's .654, and against RHP away he's .718.  His batting average at home against RHP is .323, away against RHP it's .222 and it's .194/.197 respectively for LHP.  Kinda sounds like a one trick pony to me.  His home numbers come on the back of a .388 BABIP including 10 2Bs and 5 3Bs on 40 total hits, for what that's worth.

 
I'm not sure statistics lend themselves nicely to chiasmus. 

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

All of these threads on Drew, Ells and Salty are evolving into a discussion about the 2014 team makeup with the details of each opinion scattered around, making it difficult to figure out what each individual is thinking in terms of the big picture.  The key take home for me is that the Sox have a remarkable amount of flexibility going into the offseason, a plethora of both young and established SP's and a lot of great cost-controlled role/multi-positional players (Carp, Nava, Gomes et al.) that we should try keep around.
 
Overall, I would be resistant to having too much youth on a legit contender and would like to see the Sox roll the dice on only JBJ and Xander as starters in 2014.  Therefore, let Drew and Ellsbury walk.  I think we should keep Salty (See my posts in his thread), but let Napoli walk.  I am hesitant to rely on WMB at either first or third and would like to fill one of those corners with a big bat most likely by trade.  The surplus of ML pitching (with potential salary subsidies by the Sox) plus some prospects may entice several trading partners.  If we can't get a big bat at the IF corners than we should look for one at the corner OF ones.  The desire for a big bat is mostly due to my belief that Ortiz will eventually decline and it could be next year.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Yeah, I really don't get the dismissals of Carp as a 2014 starting option. He's not a classic steroids-era offensive 1B, but he's an above-average hitter, and his defense at 1B (as opposed to LF) appears to be no worse than mediocre. Overall, a roughly average player who could still improve a bit. I think you could say that if Mike Carp is your starting 1B, that's not a particularly strong position, and you'll be keeping your antenna out for an upgrade. But "you have issues" seems to be overstating the point. He's a decent, young, cost-controlled player. We could do worse, and many other teams are (including some of the playoff contenders).

 
Not to mention the fact that there are likely to be mid season trade possibilities. If Ellsbury were retained and you went into 2014 with largely the same team as now, but with Carp starting instead of Napoli, and Bogaerts instead of Drew, and JBJ in left, that's a pretty good team.

 

[Byrdbrain]

 
The argument against making the QO is what, that he might take it?
 
That's not a compelling argument for two reasons. First, it is almost certainly wrong. Second, a pretty good two way shortstop on a short contract is going to be relatively easy to trade.
 

Well yes, though I have to admit I didn't really think about the sign and trade possibility which makes perfect sense. So I therefore retract my argument. 

 

[Myt1]

 
I'm not sure statistics lend themselves nicely to chiasmus. 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

All of these threads on Drew, Ells and Salty are evolving into a discussion about the 2014 team makeup with the details of each opinion scattered around, making it difficult to figure out what each individual is thinking in terms of the big picture.  The key take home for me is that the Sox have a remarkable amount of flexibility going into the offseason, a plethora of both young and established SP's and a lot of great cost-controlled role/multi-positional players (Carp, Nava, Gomes et al.) that we should try keep around.
 
Overall, I would be resistant to having too much youth on a legit contender and would like to see the Sox roll the dice on only JBJ and Xander as starters in 2014.  Therefore, let Drew and Ellsbury walk.  I think we should keep Salty (See my posts in his thread), but let Napoli walk.  I am hesitant to rely on WMB at either first or third and would like to fill one of those corners with a big bat most likely by trade.  The surplus of ML pitching (with potential salary subsidies by the Sox) plus some prospects may entice several trading partners.  If we can't get a big bat at the IF corners than we should look for one at the corner OF ones.  The desire for a big bat is mostly due to my belief that Ortiz will eventually decline and it could be next year.

 
I agree with pretty much everything until the bolded parts. As to the second, I keep looking for a corner IF trade target who is (1) clearly an upgrade over Carp or WMB, and (2) at all likely to be available at anything close to a reasonable price. I'm not seeing anybody who fits both criteria. Can you point me to a likely candidate?
 
Really, if the club is convinced that WMB is not the ticket, then re-signing Drew and moving Xander to third might be their best realistic option. But I think it's a little too soon to give up on Wombat, which brings us to bolded part #1. If the Sox are serious about transitioning to a homegrown contender, there are going to come some points along the way where they must entrust multiple starting roles to guys who haven't proved they're up to the job yet. I agree that ideally, you don't want that to be too many guys in any one season, but sometimes you have to play the cards you're dealt and hope for the best, and I think WMB in 2014 is going to be one of those times. At least I don't see a good, realistic alternative, other than re-signing Drew and ending the X-at-short era before it begins. 

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

There's no way Drew staying on the team provides as much value as the picks we get when he leaves. Give him the QO, assuming he doesn't take it, great, if he does then depth is always good. I'd give it maybe a 10% chance he doesnt take only because I think teams are increasingly shy about giving up their picks.

 

[JMDurron]

There's no way Drew staying on the team provides as much value as the picks we get when he leaves. Give him the QO, assuming he doesn't take it, great, if he does then depth is always good. I'd give it maybe a 10% chance he doesnt take only because I think teams are increasingly shy about giving up their picks.

 
You probably already knew this, but it seems like a meaningful distinction since the current paradigm is still somewhat new: it's pick, singular.  The signing team loses their 1st round pick (unless it is a protected pick, and/or they've already lost the 1st pick to another signing), and the Red Sox get a 1st round Comp pick at the end of the 1st round.  There is no "get a 1st/2nd round pick AND a supplemental pick" model anymore under the new CBA. 

 

[Phil Plantier]

I wonder if there's a handshake deal in place not to offer a qualifying offer for Drew. Seems like the kind of semi-official side agreement that Boras would insist upon.

 

[lexrageorge]

I wonder if there's a handshake deal in place not to offer a qualifying offer for Drew. Seems like the kind of semi-official side agreement that Boras would insist upon.

How could he?  It's not enforceable.  
 
Drew was signed to a 1-year make-good deal, because Boras and Drew realized that this would be his best option.  If Drew gets a QO after this season, the strategy will be considered a success, as Drew would end up making $23M over 2 seasons.  

 

[snowmanny]

And of course there was no such "handshake deal" to not offer arbitration when the Red Sox
signed Boras client Adrian Beltre to a one-year contract.

 

[mauf]

I wonder if there's a handshake deal in place not to offer a qualifying offer for Drew. Seems like the kind of semi-official side agreement that Boras would insist upon.

I wondered the same thing, but apparently the new CBA expressly forbids such side deals, so I'm inclined to assume that no such deal exists. The consequences to both sides if such an illegal deal were discovered would be too great to risk it, particularly over the likes of Stephen Drew.

Putting the golden handcuffs on Drew might make it less likely that the next guy looking for a one-year, make-good deal will sign here. I don't think that should be a major consideration, but if the FO is on the fence re: whether to offer the QO, it could be a tiebreaker.

Btw, I think it's at least a 50/50 shot that Drew will accept the QO if it's offered. I don't see teams lining up to surrender a first-round pick for the right to guarantee Drew $30mm+.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Putting the golden handcuffs on Drew might make it less likely that the next guy looking for a one-year, make-good deal will sign here. I don't think that should be a major consideration, but if the FO is on the fence re: whether to offer the QO, it could be a tiebreaker.

 
I think that the actual offers from other teams to that future player will mean more than whether SD gets a QO. (In SD's case, we know of another offer from the MFY to be a utility player.)  And a QO is nothing to sneeze at--that money would easily put all your kids through college, even if it wouldn't mean you live the rest of you life in a waterfront home in Lahaina.

 

[Plympton91]

The only drawback to letting Drew go is that they'd be one injury away from having Brock Holt as the starting SS. There's not a lot of middle infield available typically that can start if you need it but willing to take a backup role. So, if Drew takes a qo while Marerro and Betts get one step closer to major league ready, that's not a bad thing. Given Boras and Drew's preference to remain a full time shortstop, I bet he turns it down anyway.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I still haven't really seen a response to the point above that this scenario gives you no back up at second base. Between the three of them, Bogaerts, Drew and Middlebrooks have a whopping four MLB innings at 2B. When Neck left, we still had Iggy, and Holt while WMB was down. Once Iggy left, it's been touch and go with nobody on the roster to play second base in a back up role until the September call ups. The overload on the left side of the infield just sort of happened. Iggy's bat made Neck expendable, but Clay's troubles meant we couldn't pass on Peavy. It is what it is, and seasons turn out weird and you do what you have to in the middle of them in order to get by. But that's really different from starting a year with no option other than hoping our all star second baseman plays 162. Unless the team is going to use Carp's or Gomes' spot for a utility guy that can play outfield and middle infield, I think they have to go traditional. Pick a shortstop and find a utility guy as the fifth infielder. Unless we think Xander can learn 2B.

 

[Rasputin]

I still haven't really seen a response to the point above that this scenario gives you no back up at second base. Between the three of them, Bogaerts, Drew and Middlebrooks have a whopping four MLB innings at 2B. When Neck left, we still had Iggy, and Holt while WMB was down. Once Iggy left, it's been touch and go with nobody on the roster to play second base in a back up role until the September call ups. The overload on the left side of the infield just sort of happened. Iggy's bat made Neck expendable, but Clay's troubles meant we couldn't pass on Peavy. It is what it is, and seasons turn out weird and you do what you have to in the middle of them in order to get by. But that's really different from starting a year with no option other than hoping our all star second baseman plays 162. Unless the team is going to use Carp's or Gomes' spot for a utility guy that can play outfield and middle infield, I think they have to go traditional. Pick a shortstop and find a utility guy as the fifth infielder. Unless we think Xander can learn 2B.

 
What in the fuck are you talking about? Even if the Sox were interested in starting the season without a backup at second base, there will be one in Pawtucket which would mean Middlebrooks or Bogaerts could slip over there for a part of a game until the roster move can be made.
 
But, really, there's no non-injury scenario where the team doesn't start the season without a utility infielder who can play second base.

 

[JakeRae]

I still haven't really seen a response to the point above that this scenario gives you no back up at second base. Between the three of them, Bogaerts, Drew and Middlebrooks have a whopping four MLB innings at 2B. When Neck left, we still had Iggy, and Holt while WMB was down. Once Iggy left, it's been touch and go with nobody on the roster to play second base in a back up role until the September call ups. The overload on the left side of the infield just sort of happened. Iggy's bat made Neck expendable, but Clay's troubles meant we couldn't pass on Peavy. It is what it is, and seasons turn out weird and you do what you have to in the middle of them in order to get by. But that's really different from starting a year with no option other than hoping our all star second baseman plays 162. Unless the team is going to use Carp's or Gomes' spot for a utility guy that can play outfield and middle infield, I think they have to go traditional. Pick a shortstop and find a utility guy as the fifth infielder. Unless we think Xander can learn 2B.

In the scenario you outline, one of Drew, Bogaerts, or Middlebrooks would learn to play 2B. Trying to parse who it would be is rather silly because Drew will not be on the roster next year. If he accepts the QO, which he won't, he will be traded to a team that values him as a starter. But, to play this game, it is plausible that Middlebrooks would be that backup based on the willingness to move him there this year. However, it's more likely that the FO makes it clear to Drew that, while he is more than welcome to accept the QO, if he does and is not traded he will be used as a utility player and will be expected to learn both 2B and 3B. Thus, if he does accept the QO and stays in Boston, Drew would be the utility player.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

It's hard for me to imagine the Sox paying Drew $13M to sit on the bench next year when he's a better player than Middlebrooks, and likely to remain so unless Wombat has a huge breakout season. I realize WMB needs regular playing time if that breakout is ever going to come--and as I said above, I think the Sox can and should roll the dice with him as a regular next year--but that still seems like a weird use of resources. Therefore if Drew is given the QO and accepts it (the first of which is uncertain, and the second unlikely), I have to think that either he or WMB (or, in a few unlikely-but-not-impossible scenarios, Bogaerts) is traded over the winter. But if they really do wind up with all three guys on the roster on Opening Day, I would think WMB is more likely than Drew to wind up in a backup role.