Drew v. 2.0

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someoneanywhere

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joe dokes said:
 
*He* might like another 1-year deal, but do the Sox want to do that, given the downside of having all 3 of Drew, X and WMB on the roster, yet needing to hedge their bets if Drew is only on a one-year deal. (If the Sox dont think all 3 is a problem, then its not an issue.)
 
I would think, actually, this is their preferred scenario. Clearly they were prepared to do it: they did give him a QO, after all. The complicating factor to me would be that a one-year deal might do more damage to the budget than a two-year or three-year deal, in which they might get creative and spread the money out. 
 

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
This seems pretty easy to fathom. The Red Sox are a better team in 2014 with WMB/X/Drew than with WMB/X/UITBNL
 
I think the question is a bit different -- which is better?  WMB/Xander/Drew or Drew/Xander/UITBNL plus whatever WMB can fetch?  
 
I guess I'm just reacting to the notion that replacing UITBNL with WMB is not his highest and best use if Drew has been signed for multiple years -- at that point his highest and best use is whatever he can fetch.
 
 
chawson said:
Not necessarily advocating, but if the FO now believes they can sign Drew for something like 3/$26 or 4/$32 -- basically until Marrero's ready -- isn't it worth investigating what gold Bogaerts might actually fetch?
 
No!  In my opinion, no -- at that point the question is what can WMB fetch.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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chawson said:
Not necessarily advocating, but if the FO now believes they can sign Drew for something like 3/$26 or 4/$32 -- basically until Marrero's ready -- isn't it worth investigating what gold Bogaerts might actually fetch?
 
What "gold" is the team in need of that they'd have to part with the best positional prospect to come through their system in 6-7 years?  If anything, if you sign Drew long-term, you shop Middlebrooks for "gold" since there isn't really a gaping hole in the organization that can only be filled by sacrificing Bogaerts.
 

joe dokes

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This seems pretty easy to fathom. The Red Sox are a better team in 2014 with WMB/X/Drew than with WMB/X/UITBNL
 
 
Are they? DDB's question aside, having a backup IF who can only play one position is hardly ideal.
 
But to sign Drew they have to get rid of Peavster - thus freeing up anywhere between 10 and 15 million.And it's really unlikely they can get rid of a starting pitcher until the SP market shakes down - especially with rumours of big fish like Cliff Lee being available.
 
 
I suppose they knew the chances of him accepting were small, but if moving Peavy' or Dempster's contract were a predicate to signing Drew, would they have offered the QO (as someone reminded me upthread)?
 
 
The Drew discussion is identical to the Orioles' predicament last winter - to move Machado back to SS or to keep Hardy - an alignment which made them a better team in 2013
 
 
Aside from whether it would make the Sox better in 2014 (see above), did the O's have a 3B replacement available if Hardy got moved and Machado played SS? (Danny Valencia's improbable resurrection does not count). I think its a different scenario entirely.  With Drew, the Sox are looking at 3 players for 2 spots. The O's had no such quandary.
 
 
 
Personally I don't bring back Drew - I think once X spends a full year (or , at least a majority of his time) at 3B he's never moving back to SS
 
 
I dont see that Bogaerts's position in 2014 matters in years beyond.
 

chawson

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
What "gold" is the team in need of that they'd have to part with the best positional prospect to come through their system in 6-7 years?  If anything, if you sign Drew long-term, you shop Middlebrooks for "gold" since there isn't really a gaping hole in the organization that can only be filled by sacrificing Bogaerts.
Middlebrooks wouldn't fetch it.

There's probably a salient marketing/non-baseball argument for keeping X that complicates the equation of merely projected wins, especially now that the average Sox fan knows him, but it's probably more valuable having Drew at 3/$26 through 2016 and Chris Sale at 6/$57 through 2019 than having a cost-controlled Xander through that same window.

Or if Drew comes that cheap and Xander straight up gets Stanton and a negotiating window for the next 10 years of his career, that's interesting. It's a way better return than Beckett/Lowell.

It's an academic argument. My point is: How favorable a contract can you get Drew at before you start building the other way?
 

benhogan

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nattysez said:
https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/410906132866408450
 
This could mean
- will sign with highest bidder no matter what
- wants to sign for x number of years
- wants to be guaranteed a starting job
- wants to be on a winning team or
- no "hometown" discount for Sox
I'd like to see the Sox sign Drew, if his priority is winning and thus is willing to give the Sox a slight discount and willing to sit vs. LH pitching.
 
vs RH pitching: X at 3rd, Drew at SS   vs LH pitching: X at SS, WMB at 3rd
 
otherwise let Drew walk and collect the pick
 

SouthernBoSox

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It's simply an indefensible idea.
Wait, what? Regarding you posted an idea, someone asked you to expand, and you said it was an indefensible idea, then I can only assume you don't know what indefensible means or you are insane.
 

Al Zarilla

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benhogan said:
I'd like to see the Sox sign Drew, if his priority is winning and thus is willing to give the Sox a slight discount and willing to sit vs. LH pitching.
 
vs RH pitching: X at 3rd, Drew at SS   vs LH pitching: X at SS, WMB at 3rd
 
otherwise let Drew walk and collect the pick
That would be great in an ideal world, but at some point you want to throw your long term shortstop out there every day. That would be X, right? Also, this is Drew's year to clean up. He won't take another one year deal. Too good. And, career he's not horrible vs. lefties with a .681 OPS. He and Boras will decide 2013 was an aberration.
 

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What "gold" is the team in need of that they'd have to part with the best positional prospect to come through their system in 6-7 years?  If anything, if you sign Drew long-term, you shop Middlebrooks for "gold" since there isn't really a gaping hole in the organization that can only be filled by sacrificing Bogaerts.

You have to go back a lot further than 6-7 years to find a prospect that has come up with Boston and was as good a prospect as Bogaerts is now. I'm not sure if Nomar qualifies, and I definitely don't go back further, but Pedroia and Ellsbury were Bradley level prospects, not Bogaerts level.

To be clear, being a great prospect is not the same as becoming a great player.
 

nattysez

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JakeRae said:
You have to go back a lot further than 6-7 years to find a prospect that has come up with Boston and was as good a prospect as Bogaerts is now. I'm not sure if Nomar qualifies, and I definitely don't go back further, but Pedroia and Ellsbury were Bradley level prospects, not Bogaerts level.

To be clear, being a great prospect is not the same as becoming a great player.
 
Hanley Ramirez was at Bogaerts's level, I think. 
 

ji oh

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nattysez said:
 
Hanley Ramirez was at Bogaerts's level, I think. 
 
After appearing in 4 games in 2007, one of which was a no-hitter, Buchholz was BBA's #4 prospect.
Hanley was never ranked higher than 10.  He was a much better rookie than a prospect, though he had mad tools.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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nattysez said:
https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/410906132866408450
 
This could mean
- will sign with highest bidder no matter what
- wants to sign for x number of years
- wants to be guaranteed a starting job
- wants to be on a winning team or
- no "hometown" discount for Sox
 
This is interesting to me.  My instinct has always been that money would be most important.  This is a guy who had pretty horrible injury in the prime of his career and just as he was getting ready to be a FA at a middle infielder spot, and it cost him the better part of two seasons and who knows how many millions.  While he's made a lot of money by regular person standards, given the position he plays, he really hasn't cashed in by baseball standards.  Add to that he chose Boras, and I guess that's been what I've been assuming all along.  
 
Cherrington's comment is just too damned cryptic to make heads or tails out of, but it's the first thing I've heard that suggests there's at least a possibility that my assumption is wrong about money being priority number 1.  This is a tough one.  It seems too early to give up on WMD, but at the same time, I really feel like Xander and Drew is a left side that can really win you a lot of ball games -- and maybe even a championship here or there.
 

soxhop411

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Source: Red Sox haven’t made formal offer to Stephen Drew. Boras and Cherington talked today. http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2013/12/11/source-red-sox-havent-made-formal-offer-to-stephen-drew/ 
 
 
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — According to a major league source — other than the one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer extended earlier in the offseason — the Red Sox have not made a formal offer to Stephen Drew.
Per multiple sources, the Red Sox’ strategy continues to be to wait for Drew to find what his market might result in before looping back in with the free agent shortstop.
Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington met with Drew’s agent, Scott Boras, Wednesday at the Dolphin Resort to keep the conversation going.
“I’d rather not get into specifics of our conversation, but I don’t think we would ever — if a deal makes sense for us, we would do it today on any player,” Cherington said. “I don’t think there’s a need to wait on anything if the deal makes sense. It’s just a matter of whether or not it makes sense. We’re still working on that.
The GM added, “We had another good conversation, and we’ve been having conversations since the end of the season. Yeah, I think we have a sense of what’s important to him, and I think he has a sense of what’s important to us. See where it goes.”
Boras said while addressing the media at the winter meetings Wednesday that his client has multi-year offers from other teams. Boras did say, however, that some of the clubs around baseball want to see how the market unfolds before moving forward.
“He’s going to have numerous options to choose from,” Boras said of Drew. “Obviously there are a variety of teams that want a shortstop of his defensive acumen, capability.”
 

Sampo Gida

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Doesn't signing Drew force them to trade Dempster or Peavy to avoid being over 189?
 
I think they are a better team with Drew at SS and XB at 3B, but pretty surprised Drew would take a 2 yr deal to play on a team he might be reduced to a platoon player on and adversely affect his market value 2 yrs down the road.   Would have been better off taking the QO in that case.
 

koufax37

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The platoon WMB and Drew idea and move X around I think is a lot better in cyberspace than on the infield.  To do that to a rookie is extremely difficult and to do it multiple times within a series seems near impossible.  You want him to be a superstar, not a utility guy.
 
I think to sign Drew you need:
 
Drew + XB-3B + WMB Trade/Bench/AAAA Value  needs to be greater than XB-SS + WMB-3B + Financial Savings + Draft Pick.
 
I think XB is likely to be similar value when all factors are considered at SS and 3B, although in a perfect world he is more valuable at SS (he can't make up for the lesser importance of 3B by being comparatively better at it).
 
So you are comparing Drew to WMB straight up and I think they also are pretty similar (and Steamer and other projections bear this out).
 
That leaves you comparing WMB as insurance/depth or trade chip to Drew's contract dollars saved plus the draft pick.
 
I end up thinking that having 1/$15M or 2/$27 or whatever saved PLUS a sandwich pick is more valuable than being able to trade WMB or keep him for depth/future use without playing him much.
 
Let me know where the weakest part of my equation is?
 
#1) XB-SS ~= XB-3B
#2) WMB-3B ~= SD-SS
#3) Drew's dollars saved + pick > WMB trade/reserve value
 
I think you have to keep your options open, but to sign Drew you really have to think one of these things is wrong (or that you really are going to do a triangle platoon), and I think the one to pick at is that WMB won't be a 2 WAR fulltime player or Drew would be more than a 2 WAR fulltime player.
 
If you like WMB as a 2.0+ WAR fulltimer as I do, it is hard to have this add up in favor of signing Drew, spending the dollars and losing the pick.
 

SouthernBoSox

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koufax37 said:
The platoon WMB and Drew idea and move X around I think is a lot better in cyberspace than on the infield.  To do that to a rookie is extremely difficult and to do it multiple times within a series seems near impossible.  You want him to be a superstar, not a utility guy.
 
I think to sign Drew you need:
 
Drew + XB-3B + WMB Trade/Bench/AAAA Value  needs to be greater than XB-SS + WMB-3B + Financial Savings + Draft Pick.
 
I think XB is likely to be similar value when all factors are considered at SS and 3B, although in a perfect world he is more valuable at SS (he can't make up for the lesser importance of 3B by being comparatively better at it).
 
So you are comparing Drew to WMB straight up and I think they also are pretty similar (and Steamer and other projections bear this out).
 
That leaves you comparing WMB as insurance/depth or trade chip to Drew's contract dollars saved plus the draft pick.
 
I end up thinking that having 1/$15M or 2/$27 or whatever saved PLUS a sandwich pick is more valuable than being able to trade WMB or keep him for depth/future use without playing him much.
 
Let me know where the weakest part of my equation is?
 
#1) XB-SS ~= XB-3B
#2) WMB-3B ~= SD-SS
#3) Drew's dollars saved + pick > WMB trade/reserve value
 
I think you have to keep your options open, but to sign Drew you really have to think one of these things is wrong (or that you really are going to do a triangle platoon), and I think the one to pick at is that WMB won't be a 2 WAR fulltime player or Drew would be more than a 2 WAR fulltime player.
 
If you like WMB as a 2.0+ WAR fulltimer as I do, it is hard to have this add up in favor of signing Drew, spending the dollars and losing the pick.
I get everything you just said, but that is all working under a best case scenario.

In the real world, WMB might be a pretty bad baseball player, Drew is an injury risk, and Xander is a kid with 40+ at bats.

There is no reason to believe, even in best case, getting 400+ at bats for each of Xander, WMB, and Drew would be difficult.
 

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soxhop411 said:
 
Sampo Gida said:
Doesn't signing Drew force them to trade Dempster or Peavy to avoid being over 189?
 
I think they are a better team with Drew at SS and XB at 3B, but pretty surprised Drew would take a 2 yr deal to play on a team he might be reduced to a platoon player on and adversely affect his market value 2 yrs down the road.   Would have been better off taking the QO in that case.
 
If the Red Sox are genuinely contemplating signing Drew, then it seems they are ready to give up on Middlebrooks, and use Bogaerts at 3B indefinitely, like Machado. Bogaerts did look very good at third in the playoffs, making well-timed diving stops and no mental errors.
 
More likely, I think the Red Sox are just giving Drew one more bidder to improve his position with another team that is willing to sign him for three years. Consider it a favor to a one-year rental who was a key part of a World Series winner.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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SouthernBoSox said:
I get everything you just said, but that is all working under a best case scenario.

In the real world, WMB might be a pretty bad baseball player, Drew is an injury risk, and Xander is a kid with 40+ at bats.

There is no reason to believe, even in best case, getting 400+ at bats for each of Xander, WMB, and Drew would be difficult.
 
400+ PA to each of those three means what, ~750 PA for Pedroia?  I know he's a gritty gutty hard-nosed player, but they can't go into the season expecting Pedroia to play every inning of every game.  They need to have a utility guy who can take some innings/games at 2B here and there, and there's no room for him if you're rotating those three guys through the two positions on the left side of the infield.
 
It's not a matter of the quality of the players or how easily playing time could be divided, really.  It's just not efficient roster construction to have Drew, X, and WMB on the same roster at the same time.
 

alwyn96

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
400+ PA to each of those three means what, ~750 PA for Pedroia?  I know he's a gritty gutty hard-nosed player, but they can't go into the season expecting Pedroia to play every inning of every game.  They need to have a utility guy who can take some innings/games at 2B here and there, and there's no room for him if you're rotating those three guys through the two positions on the left side of the infield.
 
It's not a matter of the quality of the players or how easily playing time could be divided, really.  It's just not efficient roster construction to have Drew, X, and WMB on the same roster at the same time.
 
Yeah, if Middlebrooks could somehow fake it at 2B, that would go a long way towards keeping him on a team that has Drew on it. Hell, it would do a lot for his usefulness, period. He did play on the right side of the infield a bunch during some of those wacky shifts, but there's a lot more to 2B than that, and sadly I doubt it would happen.
 
Interestingly, by most of the major projection systems (Steamer, ZiPS, Oliver), Middlebrooks grades out at about the same or better than Drew by WAR. Of course, the projection systems don't know that Drew was playing through some nasty injuries the last few years, but even so I didn't expect Middlebrooks would project so well in comparison. My eyes tell me he has virtually no pitch recognition skills, and his usefulness depends entirely on making enough contact to get through the vicious slumps he goes through.
 

knucklecup

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It's almost bizarre how exclusive Drew has been to the short stop position.  He's never played another position at any time during his 7942.2 innings of Major League play.  In fact, quickly browsing the Internet and my old prospect handbooks, it doesn't appear he's played anything but short stop his entire life.
 
"There is less risk with a position player, injury-wise," Towers said. "And Drew is a guy who can play any position but catcher. We'd probably keep him in the middle of the infield."
 
With rookie Khalil Greene firmly entrenched as the Padres' shortstop, Drew would have to change positions with a move to center field a possibility. Drew is the brother of Atlanta outfielder J.D. Drew, who was a first-round pick of the Phillies.
 
 
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1813796
 
If Drew was being considered for "any position but catcher" / for a move to center field while coming up, would he not be okay spelling Pedroia at second here and there if he got a deal he deemed fair market value?
 
With four good players comprising your 3B, SS, 2B, the need for a utility infielder would be lessened beyond AAAA fodder like Brock Holt that you store at Pawtucket in case of injury.  It would mean less late inning PH opportunities for whoever sits on a given night, but would allow for more opportunities to PH Carp and whomever is sitting between Gomes and Nava.
 

knucklecup

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Sprowl said:
 
More likely, I think the Red Sox are just giving Drew one more bidder to improve his position with another team that is willing to sign him for three years. Consider it a favor to a one-year rental who was a key part of a World Series winner.
 
This.
 
The draft pick is too much to pass up.  Get him the deal he wants and help yourself in the process.
 

SouthernBoSox

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It's been referenced a few times, but can someone explain how an added supplemental pick is to much to give up for a 3-5 win shortstop whom you just won a world championship with?

They guy ranked 6th among SS with 500 AB in WAR.

Its like people forgot that WMB was awful last year. Xander, a kid with minimal AAA experience, took the job from him, mainly because he didn't suck, and wasn't just giving at bats away.

Even if you add a decent SS/2B, whoever you add isn't likely to be close go Drew in ceiling. Passing on Drew is putting a LOT of faith in WMB, and personally, I think that's incredibly risky.
 

nattysez

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I think knucklecup's posts work perfectly together.  Sox likely told Drew that they'll offer him 2/$22.  This (1) lets Boras say he has an outstanding multi-year offer and (2) gives the Sox a chance to get Drew back at a reasonable salary (while still giving him a raise).  If he gets a better offer, everyone wins.  If not, they keep him and have lots of options for giving people rest.  The only real issue w/ this plan is that they'll need Drew to play second if he's the utility INF, which may a lot to ask given that, as stated above, he's never done it.
 

zapo

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It's been referenced a few times, but can someone explain how an added supplemental pick is to much to give up for a 3-5 win shortstop whom you just won a world championship with?



Great question - anyone have an opinion on how many "wins" a 1st or sandwich pick is worth?
 

Sampo Gida

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zapo said:
Great question - anyone have an opinion on how many "wins" a 1st or sandwich pick is worth?
 
Since 1965 its about  3 WAR, and about a  7% chance a player will have more than 10 WAR in his career.  A top 5 pick by contrast is worth about 15 WAR and 40% of such picks had a career WAR over 10.  That's just from me fooling around on B-ref going back to the first draft though 2012.  Might be that more sophisticated tools today allow teams to get better numbers ,  dunno.
 

koufax37

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SouthernBoSox said:
It's been referenced a few times, but can someone explain how an added supplemental pick is to much to give up for a 3-5 win shortstop whom you just won a world championship with?

They guy ranked 6th among SS with 500 AB in WAR.

Its like people forgot that WMB was awful last year. Xander, a kid with minimal AAA experience, took the job from him, mainly because he didn't suck, and wasn't just giving at bats away.

Even if you add a decent SS/2B, whoever you add isn't likely to be close go Drew in ceiling. Passing on Drew is putting a LOT of faith in WMB, and personally, I think that's incredibly risky.
 
5 seems a little bit high.  He has been 3-4 when healthy, but is a defensive focused middle infielder who I think will be entering the declining phase of his career.  Expecting him to do noticeably better than his 3 WAR of last year would seem unlikely, and Steamer has him at 2.0 and WMB at 2.2, but unless you are ready to give up on Wombat, you are not talking about 3-5 wins above replacement, you are talking to +1 to -1 wins above or below the cost controlled "replacement" guy you have.  Is that worth $14M and a sandwich pick?  Nope.
 
It really comes down to where you project Drew and WMB.  You know Drew is going to be 2.0 to 3.5 if healthy.  If you think WMB is a decent player you aren't buying enough value over him for what you are giving up.  If you think WMB is a disaster with too many holes and too little discipline, then you happily take the reliable Drew.
 
I personally think that WMB is likely to progress as a hitter if given the ABs, and improve his OBP skill a little while gradually being better able to take advantage of his plus power.  And I have a thing against moving A-Rod/Hanley/Machado from SS to 3B as a strategy to get the most value out of your team.  For me when that dust settles, Drew's likelihood to be better than WMB and enough better than WMB to justify the pick, the cash, and moving your star prospect to a new less important position full time just doesn't quite add up.  Not a horrible move if it happens, just not quite the best option.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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zapo said:
Great question - anyone have an opinion on how many "wins" a 1st or sandwich pick is worth?
 
It's not just the "win" value of the player that could be taken with the pick, it's the additional draft pool money gained as well.  Losing a supplemental pick means losing at least $1.5M they could otherwise have to spend on their draft picks (supplemental picks in last year's draft ranged in value from $1.65M to $1.78M).
 

joe dokes

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benhogan said:
I'd like to see the Sox sign Drew, if his priority is winning and thus is willing to give the Sox a slight discount and willing to sit vs. LH pitching.
 
vs RH pitching: X at 3rd, Drew at SS   vs LH pitching: X at SS, WMB at 3rd
 
otherwise let Drew walk and collect the pick
 
You lost me at "if his priority is winning."  You killed me at linking his "priority" with "giving the Sox a slight discount," Then you came back and buried me at "if he is willing to sit vs. LHP."
 
Putting aside the absurdity of questioning someone's "priorities" when you dont know anything about the guy other than the fact that he's a pretty good major league shortstop & inventing to possibility of mutiny ("No coach, I will not sit, now way no how.") . . . .
 
 . . . . . a team with a 7 man pen cannot really afford to have a potential backup IF (either Drew or Middlebrooks) able to play only one position.
 
Sox likely told Drew that they'll offer him 2/$22.  This (1) lets Boras say he has an outstanding multi-year offer and (2) gives the Sox a chance to get Drew back at a reasonable salary (while still giving him a raise).  If he gets a better offer, everyone wins.  If not, they keep him and have lots of options for giving people rest.  
 
 
While I think its bad roster construction, if the plan is some sort of 3-into-2 thing, then I'm sure they told him that, and he can make up his mind whether he wants any part of it.  As to the offer - - - - its possible that they told him what they'd (hypothetically) offer.  But its also possible that they told him that they were not interested in "setting the market" for him, but if the best offer he gets is within certain parameters, to give them a shot at it.
 

KillerBs

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I am only really interested in having Drew as a back up infielder, even super sub, albeit one who plays a lot.
 
I do not like the sign Drew, move Bogaerts to 3b and deal/demote WMB option at all.  Any WMB deal at this stage would be selling low and I think WMB needs a somewhat consistent stretch of ML ABs for us to get a handle on what we have with him. Plus you are compromising (at least to some extent) Bogaerts path to being our SS for the next 6+ years by playing him FT at 3b in 2014-15.. Whatever marginal value, if any, the Drew-Bogaerts combo gives you in 2014, is more than outweighed when looking at 2015 and beyond.
 
I very much do like the idea of signing Drew to be the UI, even super sub. It is hard to conceive of someone who would better fit this team as a reserve IF, then Drew. Of course, he would have to commit to playing 3b and 2b at least. It wouldn't hurt if he could pass at 1b and the OF too, but that may be a step too far, and is of much less importance. I envision planning for something along the lines of the following: 
 
2b starts: Pedroia 155, Drew 7
ss: starts: Bogaerts 135, Drew 27
3b starts: Middlebrooks. 110, Drew 52
 
So Drew plays v. most righites, and gets about 300 ABs.
 
I would be open to the notion of moving Bogaerts to 3b when WMB sits, but am concerned about asking too much from Xander by moving him around. I can certainly see the sense in making it clear at the outset that it is Drew who is moving around from postion to position, not any of the others. 
 
Obviously, if WMB is hitting .190 (or slugging .500) on June 15, reassessment is in order.
 
I totally understand why this scenario would not appeal to Drew, but if he would buy in with this, I would be pleased to have him back at 2/25 or so, even noting the lost draft pick. 
 

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koufax37 said:
The platoon WMB and Drew idea and move X around I think is a lot better in cyberspace than on the infield.  To do that to a rookie is extremely difficult and to do it multiple times within a series seems near impossible.  You want him to be a superstar, not a utility guy.
 
The team had Bogaerts splitting time pretty evenly between 3B and SS when he was called up this season, and he spent about 1/5th of his AAA games at 3B as well.
 
I don't think it's a safe assumption that the FO views Bogaerts moving between 3B and SS as a hindrance to his development into the superstar they're hoping he'll become.  Being over-matched at SS and carrying that frustration with him to the plate is just as valid an armchair psychologist angle to take for hindering his development as the defensive shifting back and forth.

 
Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
400+ PA to each of those three means what, ~750 PA for Pedroia?  I know he's a gritty gutty hard-nosed player, but they can't go into the season expecting Pedroia to play every inning of every game.  They need to have a utility guy who can take some innings/games at 2B here and there, and there's no room for him if you're rotating those three guys through the two positions on the left side of the infield.
 
It's not a matter of the quality of the players or how easily playing time could be divided, really.  It's just not efficient roster construction to have Drew, X, and WMB on the same roster at the same time.
WMB was the emergency 2B at a few different points during the 2013 season and all through the playoffs.  He is by all accounts a very good athlete.  His value right now is at an all time low and what he needs to re-establish that value is ML at bats.  Him going back to AAA and raking isn't going to dispel the notion that he's a AAAA guy who can't hit ML quality off-speed pitches outside.
 
So the Sox options for him right now are:
1. Sell low in a trade, bring Drew back.
2. Send him to AAA, block him with Drew, let Cecchini run him down building a log jam, and have Brock Holt as the UI, a mediocre at best defender who can't really play SS at the ML level and isn't likely to hit better than WMB.
3. Go into 2014 with WMB inked in as the starting 3B with Brock Holt as the UI while Cecchini is likely a year off still, so it's sink or swim time.
4. Start using that athleticism to diversify his defensive skill set and get his bat into the lineup at more positions, letting him prove it at the ML level without risking wins.
 
I'm ok with 3 if Drew can't be had for a reasonable price, but I don't see why it makes sense to choose options 1 or 2 if they can get Drew back on something like a 2 year deal for reasonable money.
 
WMB would have all of spring training to work on playing 2B, and while he's at it 1B.  That gives you the best 25 man roster, and having both WMB and Carp on the bench gives a pretty powerful RH/LH tandem for pinch hitting needs.
 
The utility IF on every team in baseball gets quite a bit of playing time and they're usually pretty horrible at the plate.  If we're talking about ways to pick up production and therefore wins I'd argue it is an excellent place to start.  On top of that, this kind of plan has legitimate SS depth on the ML roster whereas going with pretty much any current UI options (such as Brock Holt) results in a backup SS who we really don't want to see cover the position for more than a game or two.
 
 

KillerBs said:
I am only really interested in having Drew as a back up infielder, even super sub, albeit one who plays a lot.
Drew can't be the super sub.  He'd be the best defensive SS, he's the oldest of the three triangle guys, and he's the one with the least positional flexibility to date in his career.
 
WMB is the guy you move around.  He's got the physical tools to handle any position but SS and C in the infield.  He's already done some work at both 2B and 1B last season.  He's also got the most potential to flash a bat you'd be ok with playing at 1B or DH should the current starters there get hurt.  Lastly, he's got the small side platoon split that pairs with Drew's own splits.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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KillerBs said:
I am only really interested in having Drew as a back up infielder, even super sub, albeit one who plays a lot.
 
I do not like the sign Drew, move Bogaerts to 3b and deal/demote WMB option at all.  Any WMB deal at this stage would be selling low and I think WMB needs a somewhat consistent stretch of ML ABs for us to get a handle on what we have with him. Plus you are compromising (at least to some extent) Bogaerts path to being our SS for the next 6+ years by playing him FT at 3b in 2014-15.. Whatever marginal value, if any, the Drew-Bogaerts gives you in 2014, is more than outweighed when looking at 2015 and beyond.
 
I very much do like the idea of signing Drew to be the UI, even super sub. It is hard to conceive of someone who would better fit this team as a reserve IF, then Drew. Of course, he would have to commit to playing 3b and 2b at least. It wouldn't hurt if he could pass at 1b and the OF too, but that may be a step too far, and is of much less importance. I envision planning for something along the lines of the following: 
 
2b starts: Pedroia 155, Drew 7
ss: starts: Bogaerts 135, Drew 27
3b starts: Middlebrooks. 110, Drew 52
 
So Drew plays v. most righites, and gets about 300 ABs.
 
I would be open to the notion of moving Bogaerts to 3b when WMB sits, but am concerned about asking too much from Xander by moving him around. I can certainly see the sense in making it clear at the outset that it is Drew who is moving around from postion to position, not any of the others. 
 
Obviously, if WMB is hitting .190 (or slugging .500) on June 15, reassessment is in order.
 
I totally understand why this scenario would not appeal to Drew, but if he would buy in with this, I would be pleased to have him back at 2/25 or so, even noting the lost draft pick. 
 
A LHH utility infielder to split his time at 2B, SS, and 3B can be had for a whole lot cheaper than $12.5M AAV.  They already have one in house in Brock Holt.  Okay, Drew is a more proven ML hitter, but Holt has experience at all three positions and has demonstrated decent on base skills in the minors.  I hardly think the extra $12M in salary is worth the difference in performance.
 
If Drew is signed to a multi-year deal with an eight-figure AAV, he has to be a full time starter.  I don't think there's any way around that.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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The positional adjustment between short stop and third base is about 5 runs or a half a win on the season. A permanent move to third wouldn't have such a huge negative impact on Bogaerts's overall value and if the difference over the next two or three years between Drew and Middlebrooks is even 2 wins a season, I think it's absolutely a good way to go. It's not like we're talking about moving him to first or left. The cost of acquiring Drew in dollars and years and the return on any Middlebrooks trade are important factors here, but let's not get carried away with the drop in value by moving Bogaerts to third.
 

KillerBs

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
A LHH utility infielder to split his time at 2B, SS, and 3B can be had for a whole lot cheaper than $12.5M AAV.  They already have one in house in Brock Holt.  Okay, Drew is a more proven ML hitter, but Holt has experience at all three positions and has demonstrated decent on base skills in the minors.  I hardly think the extra $12M in salary is worth the difference in performance.
 
If Drew is signed to a multi-year deal with an eight-figure AAV, he has to be a full time starter.  I don't think there's any way around that.
 
Actually, there are very few LHH UI, who can play 2b-3b-ss. (Nick Noonan SF, Zach Walters in Wash, Amarista in SD? Punto! are some of the few) Of course, none of them, including Brock Holt, can hold a candle to S. Drew.
 
I get your point: 12m is a lot to play for a bench player. But the idea is to use him as at least as a 1/2 time guy, who also provides incredibly good insurance against injury/collapse. I would certainly rather spend this money on Drew to be our UI than on Demspter to pitch garbage innings out of the pen. 
 
With the move to 4 man benches, I certainly think a super sub could be worth that kind of money. Guys who can play multiple positions are worth more now than they use to be, which as an aside is another reason why I don't want to cut WMB loose too quick, as he seems to be someone who at least potentially could play a bunch of positions. It is not out of the question Drew could be that kind of guy, but I agree it is doubtful he would choose to sign up for that given the option he has now of being a starting SS for someone else.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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knucklecup said:
It's almost bizarre how exclusive Drew has been to the short stop position.  He's never played another position at any time during his 7942.2 innings of Major League play.  In fact, quickly browsing the Internet and my old prospect handbooks, it doesn't appear he's played anything but short stop his entire life.
 
 
I thought about and may have ruminated about this during the season -- there certainly seemed like times when moving Drew to 2B and having Xander at SS would have made sense to spell Pedey after Iggy and Ciriaco left.  But it never happened, and the move to get McDonald seems to confirm that Drew won't or doesn't want to play 2B.
 
I've always sort of assumed that moving from SS to 2B is a piece of cake if a guy is reasonably experienced at the position.  You have to learn a few new skills -- adjusting to covering second base on steals from the other side of the infield and for LHB instead of RHB.  Holding runners a bit differently.  Getting used to taking cut offs from a different spot.  But the Sox play interesting shifts anyway, so there is already some of that.  Although, now that I think about it, even in heavily shifted defenses, I seem to recall that Drew almost always stayed on the left side of second base, and the Sox were more likely to bring the 3B over to the other side.  
 
Anyway, here's an interesting take on the issue by Bill James.  I'm not sure I get his point, but I'm inferring from it that moving from SS to 2B is a piece of cake, but it's not always the case the other way around.  
 
 
 
I don't know that there are personality elements in that decision. Our general philosophy is that a young player plays shortstop until we know that he can't do it. Jed Lowrie was a college second baseman (essentially), played a little bit of shortstop in college. We put him at shortstop, just on the theory that if he COULD play shortstop, that would be a good thing, and it turned out that he could. I am certain that other teams do this as well, because if you look at the history of the amateur draft, there has almost never been a second baseman drafted in the first round. I think in the entire 48-year history of the draft, 1200 or 1300 first-round draft picks, there are only a handful listed at the time of the draft as second basemen, whereas there are dozens and dozens listed at every other position. The reason that is true is that the drafting organization gets to decide how to list the player, and everybody does the same thing we do: they don't ASSUME that a player can't play shortstop. Lots of players drafted in the first round were actually playing second base in college, but their teams still drafted them as shortstops, just on the theory that if they COULD play shortstop, that would be good. I think that Spike Owen, who was a very good defensive shortstop albeit a light hitter, was actually a college second baseman.
 
http://www.qcbaseball.com/skills/infield_secondbase1.aspx
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
The positional adjustment between short stop and third base is about 5 runs or a half a win on the season. A permanent move to third wouldn't have such a huge negative impact on Bogaerts's overall value and if the difference over the next two or three years between Drew and Middlebrooks is even 2 wins a season, I think it's absolutely a good way to go. It's not like we're talking about moving him to first or left. The cost of acquiring Drew in dollars and years and the return on any Middlebrooks trade are important factors here, but let's not get carried away with the drop in value by moving Bogaerts to third.
 
Agree with this.  The other important factor, though, is Cecchini.  The reality is that if you have Bogaerts play 3B for the next couple years, he's probably a 3B for life, especially given that he doesn't have the strongest defensive skills for SS to begin with (If we're talking about a one year deal for Drew and just one year at 3B for XB then it may be a different story).  In theory he might be able to switch back to SS after several years of playing full time at 3B but that kind of move happens very rarely and I don't think you can plan on it occurring.  So signing Drew for multiple years and moving XB to 3B probably also means either moving Cecchini to a new position (at which he may be a much more marginal contributor) or dealing him to maximize value.
 
I like Drew a lot as a player but I think the value of a cost controlled Bogaerts/Cecchini combo on the left side of the infield through the early 2020s is pretty significant.  I'm not sure that I want to fuck with that just to upgrade from WMB to Drew in 2014.
 

koufax37

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Drek717 said:
 

The team had Bogaerts splitting time pretty evenly between 3B and SS when he was called up this season, and he spent about 1/5th of his AAA games at 3B as well.
 
I don't think it's a safe assumption that the FO views Bogaerts moving between 3B and SS as a hindrance to his development into the superstar they're hoping he'll become.  Being over-matched at SS and carrying that frustration with him to the plate is just as valid an armchair psychologist angle to take for hindering his development as the defensive shifting back and forth.
 
XB moved between positions out of necessity and his ability to get his foot in the door.  The requirements for being a super-utility (I'm defining loosely as fulltime at bats shifting more than occasionally among at least two positions of which at least one is 3B/SS/2B/C) are not trivial.  There are guys who adapt to it well and could play all 9 in a game if needed, and there are guys who struggle.  I love athleticism and flexibility, and was impressed with XB on both fronts in 2013.  I just have a hard time seeing him reach his maximum development with such an arrangement.
 
Maybe I am reading too much into this and he will thrive like a bilingual child does (insert the joke about his personal language fluency here) without any hindrance on his ability to be an exceptional fulltime shortstop when needed in the future, or his ability to perform at the plate and defensively at the two positions in 2014.  Maybe I am under estimating the Stephen Drew simple advantage over WMB, or the triangle platoon advantage over either pair of starters.
 
Right now I feel that penciling XB in to one position and probably even one lineup position and letting him get comfortable and enjoy a distraction free full rookie season is the best way to get production out of him in 2014 and for his overall development into a super star.  And I think that position would be best to be his natural position and the most valuable position of SS (and similarly letting him set at maybe #6 in the lineup for a while), and that the difference in complimenting him with a fulltime WMB or a fulltime Drew isn't that significant, yet the cost difference is.
 
So to me sticking with XB-SS and WMB-3B is our best 2014 option and our best value for 2015 and beyond.
 

smastroyin

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I agree with all of that and don't really want to sign Drew (even though I like him as a player), but it's worth noting that while I am happy with X as a SS and want him to be there, I don't think there is a good chance he will ever be an exceptional fielding SS, so you probably aren't really hindering him too much if you move him to 3B for a year or two, especially if you are willing to platoon Drew a little more and make sure X gets 300 innings at SS this year.  
 
The reasons I wouldn't sign Drew are more about replacement value and getting to see what WMB can actually do, though.  I'm not a big WMB fan but I don't think just marginalizing him to 200 AB this year (or whatever would come of the platoon situation) is helpful to anyone.  As well, while this off-season may not be the time, typically finding a 3B who can hit about as well as Drew should be easier (and cheaper) than finding a SS who can (and may even be here in Cecchini but I don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves on that one).  There is the question of defense to be considered, which means in this case you are looking at what the value of (Drew-X) + (X-3B) is on defense.  
 
As I noted in another thread, I also think that WMB could quickly become overvalued on the market.  If he pops 18 HR by the ASB without having his AVG crater below 200 or something, he could possibly be traded for a ransom, even if Kevin Towers isn't involved, since young power seems to be all the rage.  So even if the 2014 team is better with Drew, your long-term organization is better with even a moderately successful WMB.  But a lot of this is post World Series win talk - normally I'm not for giving up wins in the present tense.  
 

glennhoffmania

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I find this whole discussion a tad confusing.  It seems fairly straightforward to me:
 
1. If they believe that X can be a SS for the long term, then they leave him at SS and you don't sign Drew.
 
2. If they believe that X's future is at 3B and they can get Drew for a reasonable contract, then do it and move X there permanently.  And then get whatever they can for Middlebrooks.
 
3. If X is the SS and they believe that Middlebrooks can hit well enough to be the starting 3B, at least for 2014, then your infield is set and you only need a UI.  If there are doubts about that then they need to sign someone who can play 3B- not someone else who can only play SS and move X to 3B.
 
So unless #2 is true, and I've read nothing to suggest that it is, I see no reason to entertain signing Drew.  I like him as a player and in a vacuum I would have no problem seeing him back in Boston, but I don't think he's worth delaying or screwing with the future left side of the infield, whether that's X/Middlebrooks or X/Cecchini in another year.
 

RedOctober3829

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glennhoffmania said:
I find this whole discussion a tad confusing.  It seems fairly straightforward to me:
 
1. If they believe that X can be a SS for the long term, then they leave him at SS and you don't sign Drew.
 
2. If they believe that X's future is at 3B and they can get Drew for a reasonable contract, then do it and move X there permanently.  And then get whatever they can for Middlebrooks.
 
3. If X is the SS and they believe that Middlebrooks can hit well enough to be the starting 3B, at least for 2014, then your infield is set and you only need a UI.  If there are doubts about that then they need to sign someone who can play 3B- not someone else who can only play SS and move X to 3B.
 
So unless #2 is true, and I've read nothing to suggest that it is, I see no reason to entertain signing Drew.  I like him as a player and in a vacuum I would have no problem seeing him back in Boston, but I don't think he's worth delaying or screwing with the future left side of the infield, whether that's X/Middlebrooks or X/Cecchini in another year.
I agree with this sentiment.  While I would like them to bring Drew back, if they ultimately think X will stick at SS then I think he needs to play there full-time.  Give him as many reps at the ML level to further develop his fielding if he needs to get better.  It's coming close to make your decision on the left side of the infield and if your answer is X at SS, then go with it.  You have a little bit of time to decide on Middlebrooks vs. Cecchini.
 

The Boomer

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glennhoffmania said:
I find this whole discussion a tad confusing.  It seems fairly straightforward to me:
 
1. If they believe that X can be a SS for the long term, then they leave him at SS and you don't sign Drew.
 
2. If they believe that X's future is at 3B and they can get Drew for a reasonable contract, then do it and move X there permanently.  And then get whatever they can for Middlebrooks.
 
3. If X is the SS and they believe that Middlebrooks can hit well enough to be the starting 3B, at least for 2014, then your infield is set and you only need a UI.  If there are doubts about that then they need to sign someone who can play 3B- not someone else who can only play SS and move X to 3B.
 
So unless #2 is true, and I've read nothing to suggest that it is, I see no reason to entertain signing Drew.  I like him as a player and in a vacuum I would have no problem seeing him back in Boston, but I don't think he's worth delaying or screwing with the future left side of the infield, whether that's X/Middlebrooks or X/Cecchini in another year.
 
# 3 is their likely scenario.  Drew really doesn't make that much sense for what he will cost.  If Iglesias and XB could play 3B so well last season with almost no experience, then a defense at ss first UIF (particularly someone who can play 2B also) is all they should be pursuing.  This is where Tejeda from the Mets are someone like that (with offense only a secondary concern) is probably what they seek.  Oddly, a Punto reboot might be what they want.  Punto was unnecessary tot he 2012 disaster but could be useful again to the prospective 2014 contender.  Here are possible free agent options still available:
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/type/available/position/ss
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/type/available/position/2b
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/type/available/position/3b
 
Someone available in a reasonable trade might be a better way to go.
 

koufax37

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That's kind of funny.  As much as Punto was not right the first time around and is loathed in these parts for his weak bat and dives into first, and annoying uniform destruction, he was also on my mind as the rough model for what we might want to complement WMB/XB.  I think we can probably do better digging a little deeper, but he was the first thing that came to mind.
 

JimBoSox9

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glennhoffmania said:
I find this whole discussion a tad confusing.  It seems fairly straightforward to me:
 
1. If they believe that X can be a SS for the long term, then they leave him at SS and you don't sign Drew.
 
2. If they believe that X's future is at 3B and they can get Drew for a reasonable contract, then do it and move X there permanently.  And then get whatever they can for Middlebrooks.
 
3. If X is the SS and they believe that Middlebrooks can hit well enough to be the starting 3B, at least for 2014, then your infield is set and you only need a UI.  If there are doubts about that then they need to sign someone who can play 3B- not someone else who can only play SS and move X to 3B.
 
So unless #2 is true, and I've read nothing to suggest that it is, I see no reason to entertain signing Drew.  I like him as a player and in a vacuum I would have no problem seeing him back in Boston, but I don't think he's worth delaying or screwing with the future left side of the infield, whether that's X/Middlebrooks or X/Cecchini in another year.
 
It is straightforward when you break it down like that; the complexity comes from hedging their bets.  They don't want to list their options, pick the top one, and roll.  They want #1, and to be able to fall to #2 if #1 doesn't work out, and fall to #3 blah blah blah.  
 
zThey're building for plan A/B/C all at the same time, which (maybe) creates a scenario where they DO believe that X is a future All-Star SS but they sign Drew anyways because at 2 years it doesn't really hurt that future and significantly decreases their '13/'14 risk.  Delaying or risking plan A slightly may be worth that.
 
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