C's pick Aaron Nesmith #14 overall

Cesar Crespo

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Isn't Kyle Korver with above-average defense closer to the 95% outcome?
Yeah, but I wanted to use a real player and I don't think Korver with above average defense is that much different in value from Middleton. I'd still prefer Middleton because he's the better playmaker and doesn't need his offense made for him. Plus there's some reason to believe Nesmith will improve as a distributor.
 

RorschachsMask

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That’s actually a really good comp. I agree.
He was awesome before that injury. Deadly from outside, could create his own offense against weak defense and switches. Was a really smart defender, used his size well (is only 6’4 or 6’5, but has a 6’9 wingspan). They both even have that slightly slower release.

I’m ecstatic with the pick.
 

DannyDarwinism

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That’s actually a really good comp. I agree.
Yeah, similar body type too, which can make comps more superficial, but their games coming out of college are similar enough. Mathews was more of an overall scorer who got to the line, but in the NBA he became the guy we’d like Nesmith to become if he improves his handle and passing moderately and his defense a lot. I like it.
 

nighthob

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Not to get carried away, since I think you're basically right, but what is the ceiling for an insane shooter who plays average-ish D?

Like, what would Duncan Robinson or Bertans get paid on the open market if they were, say, Tobias Harris-level defenders?

I've been saying this since pre-draft, but it would really improve the Celtics Jays+Smart trajectory to hit on an elite shooter with average D in the draft, trade, or FA. Of course every team wants shooting, but those 3 are so versatile that the shooter gains a ton of value.
An averagish defender that can shoot 40% from the three point line is an elite 3&D guy thanks to the three. I was doing the compare to Saddiq Bey just to counterpoint someone on the other end of the scale, he's a great defensive player that might become a great shooter if he can clean up his form. Bey might have more potential to become a top 100 guy in the NBA because his defense is so much better.

But ultimately Boston already has three guys that can play D like that, and they obviously really needed shooting. So they made the opposite bet. And someone that can flame like Nesmith has a ton of value given that he's going to be playing with Kemba, Marcus, and the Jay Crew.

I agree his form is great. I agree his progress is promising and potentially very real. But you're choosing optimism as a base case.

How many great form shooters aren't one of the best three point shooters in the world? How many great form shooters (or crappy ones) have hot streaks where they shoot 50% from (college) 3 for a little while and regress?
He's a technician, about the only less than optimal trait you can pick out is that he isn't Steph Curry quick in his shot release. If this is an Arsen Edwards thing, let's give him a chance before declaring him a bust, eh? It takes smurfs a little bit to catch up to the speed of the NBA.

His highlight reel is almost entirely catch and shoot three pointers. He looks very awkward going to the basket. Zero play making. There's a little shot creation there but not a ton.
While I look at scouting highlight reels (which is what I assume that you're talking about), I prefer to squander hours of my time watching game tape. The short and long of it is that while the scouting reels give you a good overview of the strengths and weaknesses of a player, the game tape tells you how many impact plays per game any particular player makes (in fact the game tape was one of the things that made me more hesitant about Josh Green).

Anyway, rest assured that Nesmith shoots really well on the move. He shoots well off screens, he is a great pull up shooter. His slide step threes could use some improved footwork (in the sense that he gets to his new spot a touch slow, the feet are always positioned well for the actual shot), but they go in like everything else.

Doug McDermott as the median projection? No. He shot .435 from 3 last year on reasonable volume. Fifth in the NBA. Without looking it up, my recollection is McDermott basically shot 50% from 3 for his entire four year college career. I also like Neismith's release and defensive potential more.
His senior year at Creighton Dougie Buckets matched Nesmith's shot volume from the three point line. As a freshman. His three point shooting percentage also dipped that year on greater volume in the Big East. Nesmith has shown the ability to shoot from distance at every level. But historically it takes him a year to adjust.

I like the pick. I merely disagree he's high floor / low ceiling. I think he's got a pretty low floor and a pretty high ceiling. Other people seem far more confident he's going to be a great shooter based on a relatively small sample, and are therefore projecting a higher floor than I think is accurate.
Nesmith has one elite skill, his shooting. Which is a pretty good elite skill to have. So he has a very high floor because even Duncan Robinson has proven that you can turn that one skill into a useful NBA career. But ceiling? If we're lucky he turns into a top 100 player. His 1% projection is probably Klay Thompson, but Dougie Buckets is probably a better comp, a three point marksman that provides better spacing for our scorers. I just think that he has the tools to be an unbad defensive player.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think AM2s point is people are taking it for granted his shooting will translate therefore he has a high floor. Like I said earlier, if his shooting doesn't translate, he doesn't get a 2nd contract. So his real floor is out of the league, but that's not how people really discuss floors and ceilings. Otherwise everyone's floor is "out of the league" and ceiling is "Klay Thompson" or "Kevin Garnett."
 

amarshal2

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While I look at scouting highlight reels (which is what I assume that you're talking about), I prefer to squander hours of my time watching game tape. The short and long of it is that while the scouting reels give you a good overview of the strengths and weaknesses of a player, the game tape tells you how many impact plays per game any particular player makes (in fact the game tape was one of the things that made me more hesitant about Josh Green).

Anyway, rest assured that Nesmith shoots really well on the move. He shoots well off screens, he is a great pull up shooter. His slide step threes could use some improved footwork (in the sense that he gets to his new spot a touch slow, the feet are always positioned well for the actual shot), but they go in like everything else.
lol, great to hear. yes, just relying on scouting reports and highlight reels over here.

Nesmith has one elite skill, his shooting. Which is a pretty good elite skill to have. So he has a very high floor because even Duncan Robinson has proven that you can turn that one skill into a useful NBA career. But ceiling? If we're lucky he turns into a top 100 player. His 1% projection is probably Klay Thompson, but Dougie Buckets is probably a better comp, a three point marksman that provides better spacing for our scorers. I just think that he has the tools to be an unbad defensive player.
This is where you lose me. Duncan Robinson looks like he can be as good/valuable of a 3 point shooter as Klay and potentially on track to reach Steph levels. Nobody denies that if Nesmith is roughly the best shooter in the NBA he'll be good. If McBuckets is the comp then we agree he's at high risk of being a bust. Doug was clearly a more sure thing as a shooter based on track record.
 

nighthob

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I think AM2s point is people are taking it for granted his shooting will translate therefore he has a high floor. Like I said earlier, if his shooting doesn't translate, he doesn't get a 2nd contract. So his real floor is out of the league, but that's not how people really discuss floors and ceilings. Otherwise everyone's floor is "out of the league" and ceiling is "Klay Thompson" or "Kevin Garnett."
The thing is, that question is one we can ask about Saddiq Bey or Josh Green because their shots are unorthodox. So with guys like that you really do ask "Does that shot translate to the NBA? Because to me it looks like he should rebuild it." But pure shooters? Guys with technique that picture perfect? OK, technically there's a chance that he Fultzes around with his jumper and busts out as a result. But I'm betting that that shot is fine.
 
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nighthob

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This is where you lose me. Duncan Robinson looks like he can be as good/valuable of a 3 point shooter as Klay and potentially on track to reach Steph levels. Nobody denies that if Nesmith is roughly the best shooter in the NBA he'll be good. If McBuckets is the comp then we agree he's at high risk of being a bust. Doug was clearly a more sure thing as a shooter based on track record.
Duncan Robinson is a pretty bad defensive player that literally can't ever be what Curry or Thompson are. If he got that level of defensive attention he'd shoot about .287 from three point land. But he's deadly as the other guy on the floor, which is what I'm talking about with Nesmith. If a team were relying on him to be their primary scorer next year, rest assured that in a year's time Cade Cunningham would be arriving to turn the franchise's fortunes around. But Boston doesn't need Nesmith to be Steph or Klay, they need him to be Duncan Robinson.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The thing is, that question is one we can ask about Saddiq Bey or Josh Green because their shots are unorthodox. So with guys like that you really do ask "Does that shot translate to the NBA? Because to me it looks like he should rebuild it." But pure shooters? Guys with with technique that picture perfect? OK, technically there's a chance that he Fultzes around with his jumper and busts out as a result. But I'm betting that that shot is fine.
Something a foot injury would fuck with? I get your point but we don't know until we know.

I also think it's funny (and deserved) how people always mention Fultz about picks/bust, but at least he's still in the NBA. The #4 pick in that very same draft who refused to workout for us is probably not getting a 2nd NBA contract.
 

nighthob

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I'm doing my part to turn fultz into a verb. But Fultz had other skills to fall back on to carve out a career as a roleplayer. Nesmith does not, if he fultzes around with his jumper he's going to find himself in the Turkish B league.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Nesmith does not, if he fultzes around with his jumper he's going to find himself in the Turkish B league.
Pretty sure everyone agrees with this to some degree. He needs to hit the 3 to succeed. There is some hope he might become an average defender.

I like his chances and his fit on the team. His role isn't going to really change. People wanted Edwards in that role but there were a bunch of signs he would fail. Nesmith doesn't have all those red flags and "should" have a decent floor.

I've said it a few times, but I love the pick and it's who I would have selected at 14. Didn't care for the pick at 26 but really wanted RJ who went just before and didn't have anyone else in mind so I can't really gripe. I've talked myself into Prichard a little.
 

nighthob

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Let's wait before drumming Edwards out of the NBA. It's not unusual for the sub-six footers to take a year to adjust to a level of play where even the ballboys are taller and the defenders' floor speed is greater than what they're accustomed to.
 

Euclis20

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I'm doing my part to turn fultz into a verb. But Fultz had other skills to fall back on to carve out a career as a roleplayer. Nesmith does not, if he fultzes around with his jumper he's going to find himself in the Turkish B league.
Of course, that's a reasonable expected outcome for any 14th pick. Out of the league within 5 years has to be a fairly common occurrence for guys picked at that slot, although the future is looking extremely bright for the #14 picks taken immediately prior to Nesmith and Romeo (Michael Porter and Bam).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Let's wait before drumming Edwards out of the NBA. It's not unusual for the sub-six footers to take a year to adjust to a level of play where even the ballboys are taller and the defenders' floor speed is greater than what they're accustomed to.
Fair enough but even if he succeeds, he has to shoot substantially better than Nesmith. He's even more of a one trick pony.
 

Cellar-Door

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Fair enough but even if he succeeds, he has to shoot substantially better than Nesmith. He's even more of a one trick pony.
I don't agree with that. Edwards can shoot off the dribble and create his own shot hypothetically, as well as handle the ball (at least hypothetically).
Edwards is a player you hope becomes Lou Williams, a bench guard who can just go get himself buckets whenever you need him to, and can handle the ball a bit. His issue is... he either can get buckets or he can't.
Nesmith you're hoping for a Danny Green, Wes Matthews type who can hit catch and shoots and defend. But there is the middle ground, where he can shoot but not play much D, that makes him a deep bench guy.

Nesmith probably needs his shot to be better to be an NBA player than Edwards does, because creating your own shot and handling the ball get you some leeway. Catch and shoot guys either have to be elite at catching and shooting, or play really good D.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Of course, that's a reasonable expected outcome for any 14th pick. Out of the league within 5 years has to be a fairly common occurrence for guys picked at that slot, although the future is looking extremely bright for the #14 picks taken immediately prior to Nesmith and Romeo (Michael Porter and Bam).
2019: Romeo Langford
2018: Michael Porter (looking really good)
2017: Bam Adebayo (grrrr)
2016: Denzel Valentine (still around)
2015: Cameron Payne (still around)
2014: TJ Warren (lol)
2013: Shabazz Mohamaed (done, 6 seasons)
2012: John Henson (still around)
2011: Marcus Morris (still around, obv)
2010: Patrick Patterson (still around)
2009: Earl Clark (done, 6 seasons)
2008: Anthony Randolph (done, 6 seasons)
2007: Al Thornton (done, 4 seasons)
2006: Ronnie Brewer (8 seasons)
2005: Rashad McCants (4 seasons)
2004: Kris Kardashian (13 seasons)
2003: Luke Ridnor (12 seasons)
2002: Fred Jones (7 seasons)
2001: Troy Murphy (12 seasons)
2000: Mateen Cleaves (6 seasons)

Last 20 pick. 11 are retired. They lasted an average of 7.6 years. 9 are still active. Henson is entering his 8th season but may be done soon. TJ Warren is entering his 6th season and looks primed for a long career. Denzel and Payne will probably stick around for a few more years. Bam looks to be an all star, Porter looked good in limited time. Langford is always injured but has shown promise.

So out of the league in 5 years does not seem like a fairly common occurrence at all. It's looking like 2/20. If you had said out of the league after 6 years, it'd be 6/20 but there's a small chance Payne and Valentine won't get past 6 years either. Even if they don't most of the 14th picks stick around for quite some time and have pretty decent careers. Patrick Patterson isn't great shakes but he's already had a 9 year career.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't agree with that. Edwards can shoot off the dribble and create his own shot hypothetically, as well as handle the ball (at least hypothetically).
Edwards is a player you hope becomes Lou Williams, a bench guard who can just go get himself buckets whenever you need him to, and can handle the ball a bit. His issue is... he either can get buckets or he can't.
Nesmith you're hoping for a Danny Green, Wes Matthews type who can hit catch and shoots and defend. But there is the middle ground, where he can shoot but not play much D, that makes him a deep bench guy.

Nesmith probably needs his shot to be better to be an NBA player than Edwards does, because creating your own shot and handling the ball get you some leeway. Catch and shoot guys either have to be elite at catching and shooting, or play really good D.
I'm just not an Edwards guy so I don't see it. If all goes right, I can see him living up to his nickname, Eddie House. I think Nesmith doesn't need to rely on his shot as much because he should be a considerably better defender by default. I guess I didn't really consider Nesmith being truly awful on D tho.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'm just not an Edwards guy so I don't see it. If all goes right, I can see him living up to his nickname, Eddie House. I think Nesmith doesn't need to rely on his shot as much because he should be a considerably better defender by default. I guess I didn't really consider Nesmith being truly awful on D tho.
I also think you need to account for this.....
There are a lot of wings who can defend in the league. If Nesmith can't shoot, the odds of him being a good enough defender relative to the position are low. Wes Iwundu is an elite defender, he didn't even get a QO from Orlando.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I also think you need to account for this.....
There are a lot of wings who can defend in the league. If Nesmith can't shoot, the odds of him being a good enough defender relative to the position are low. Wes Iwundu is an elite defender, he didn't even get a QO from Orlando.
If he can't shoot he is done. If Edwards can't shoot, he is also done. I don't see Nesmith getting by on just defense. I just think the defensive gap between Edwards and Nesmith is pretty big so Nesmith won't have to be as nearly efficient as Edwards from 3.

If Nesmith and Edwards are both shooting .370 with the same volume, I'm guessing Nesmith is offering far more value because it would be hard for him to be as bad as Edwards defensively.

Again, I am really not an Edwards guy. I said he'd be out of the league last year after like week 2. That's harsh and I've changed my stance a little because roster sizes are much bigger now, but yeah.
 

chilidawg

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thru their sophomore years:
McDermott: 2pt FG%: .606 (9.5 attempts), 3p%: .445 (3.1), FT%: .775 (4.0)
Nesmith: 2pt FG: .485 (4.5), 3p%: .410 (6.3), FT%: .825 (3.1)

The next 2 years, McDermott shot .870 from the line on 5.9 attempts. He ends up at .831.

I'd be curious to see the shot charts but I don't know where to find that info for college. .606 from 2 is insane and I'm guessing not all of those were lay ups. I'm guessing some where though, and that most/all of Nesmith's were not.

For reference, Waters was at .496, .340, .807 on 6.5, 5.7 and 4.2. Edwards was .455/.368/.817 on 7.2/7.1/4.2. Those are 2p%, not FG%.
Thanks for using 2pt % in your slash numbers, just makes so much more sense and is more informative than fg%, which also includes 3 point shooting.
 

lovegtm

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Nice Weiss writeup on Nesmith’s potential:

For non-subscribers: Weiss (who analyzes these things decently) is really high on Nesmith’s mechanics, footwork, and ability to adjust his shot in adverse circumstances to get it off.

I was excited on draft night, and I’m becoming more so. The benefit of having Brown and Tatum is that you can pursue these one-dimensional guys and let that dimension shine. This is also why I think Brown is fairly untouchable for the Cs right now (barring something insane like Giannis availability).

From the article:
But someone like Nesmith has the ability to actually skip the dip, catching the ball high and going straight into the shot motion. It requires using proper technique going into the catch and actually starting that full motion on the move, hoping it’s timed just perfectly for the ball to enter the motion in synch. It’s a truly unique technique that few shooters in the league can pull off. Nesmith can. It means he can get shots off in the kinds of windows most players wouldn’t even dare.

He also can handle the opposite end of the spectrum, such as situations where he needs to slow down his rhythm to account for a pass coming in later than anticipated or the defense doing something confusing to throw off his read of the floor. There are plenty of shots where you can see he is still catching on the move or his body isn’t in the proper alignment, where he will manage to slow down the pace of his ball raise so that his lower body can catch up to the pace and find synchronicity. A successful jump shot is less about breakneck speed and more about the legs, shoulders and arms all moving together. It seems as though no matter what the situation may be, Nesmith will find away to get everything on the same page before the ball leaves his hands.
 

BigSoxFan

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Nice Weiss writeup on Nesmith’s potential:

For non-subscribers: Weiss (who analyzes these things decently) is really high on Nesmith’s mechanics, footwork, and ability to adjust his shot in adverse circumstances to get it off.

I was excited on draft night, and I’m becoming more so. The benefit of having Brown and Tatum is that you can pursue these one-dimensional guys and let that dimension shine. This is also why I think Brown is fairly untouchable for the Cs right now (barring something insane like Giannis availability).

From the article:
Yup. This definitely articulates why I wanted Nesmith. When you have 2 slashers of the Jay’s caliber, defenses are going to have to account for them or they’re giving up a bucket. If Nesmith’s shooting plays in the NBA, you have a potential elite kick out option that can really burn defenses. We saw it with Duncan Robinson in the bubble. Having a guy like that probably reverses the ECF outcome. The more real estate defenses have to account for, the better off we’ll be.
 

DannyDarwinism

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To the notion that Nesmith was only a lottery pick due to a hot streak and a small sample size on his 120 3Pt attempts this year, that’s just not how it works. He was 247’s consensus #46 ranked prospect coming out of high school, and their 8th ranked SG. He had offers from about half of the SEC, in addition to a bunch of other major programs, plus Harvard and Yale. Guys like that are on every scout’s radar. Started in the SEC as a freshman, after which he was in the top 100 prospect big boards of all of the people I trust when looking at this stuff.

He was very much a known entity to the scouting community before he lit a flamethrower to college hoops this year. With his measurables and profile, he would’ve been a top 20 pick if he had shot 40% from three this year. Professional scouts have high school, AAU and invitationals shooting numbers to go off of. Nowadays there’s just too much information out there on these guys with how much basketball they play before getting to college for a guy to come out of nowhere and get blown up on a small sample size.
 

TripleOT

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I don’t get the negativity on this pick. He has the right size for his position, is considered one of the best shooters in this draft, and is known for being a hard worker with a crazy work ethic. The one downside is that he’s not uber-athletic, which isn’t that big a deal on a squad with Tatum and Brown.

I think Nesmith has the makeup to step in and play right away, at least as much as Brown did his rookie year.
 

lovegtm

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I'm just finding them now, but there was a series out of the Bay Area on various sleepers in the draft back in the spring. The one on Nesmith compares him to Klay Thompson. Not in-depth at all but thought some might be interested.

Link: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/warriors/2020-nba-draft-sleepers-aaron-nesmith-compares-warriors-klay-thompson.
It's a pretty reasonable ceiling comp, with the usual caveats about ceilings and Klay's greatness. Iirc, people were surprised that Klay developed into the defender that he did.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It's a pretty reasonable ceiling comp, with the usual caveats about ceilings and Klay's greatness. Iirc, people were surprised that Klay developed into the defender that he did.
Well, NBAdraftnet's comparison for Klay was . . . .Marco Belinelli.
Weaknesses: An average athlete who plays below the rim … He’s a "momentum athlete" in the sense that he shows solid athleticism when he has momentum moving towards the rim … Much better in the half court than in the open floor. His lack of elite athleticism gets exposed in the transition game … Lacks great foot speed which inhibits his ability to take the ball off the dribble against quick defenders … Recevied a one game suspension due to a marijuana possession charge, but scouts don’t seem too concerned about that therefore it hasn’t affected his stock much … Long, athletic defenders can give him trouble

 

lovegtm

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Well, NBAdraftnet's comparison for Klay was . . . .Marco Belinelli.
Weaknesses: An average athlete who plays below the rim … He’s a "momentum athlete" in the sense that he shows solid athleticism when he has momentum moving towards the rim … Much better in the half court than in the open floor. His lack of elite athleticism gets exposed in the transition game … Lacks great foot speed which inhibits his ability to take the ball off the dribble against quick defenders … Recevied a one game suspension due to a marijuana possession charge, but scouts don’t seem too concerned about that therefore it hasn’t affected his stock much … Long, athletic defenders can give him trouble

This should probably go in the recent draft thread next to all the other terrible evaluations of wing defense in draft prospects.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Found this really interesting write-up on Nesmith:

A go-to scorer at the college level who uses a good number of possessions, the biggest initial question for Nesmith is how big of a transition he'll have to make in the NBA. The good news is that unlike many high-scoring college players, he isn't really a dominant ball-handler and already is used in multiple situations operating off the ball.
Relying heavily on his perimeter shot (308 jump shots compared to 123 shots around the basket in the half court this season according to Synergy), Nesmith is constantly moving without the ball and coming around screens, showing a great knack for finding open areas of the floor and being multi-capable once the ball gets in his hands. Making quick decisions and showing good scoring instincts, Nesmith doesn't usually have the ball for that long before it leaves his hands.
Nesmith is at his most comfortable spotting up or coming around screens, showing excellent shooting mechanics with consistent balance and a high and quick release. He has cut down on bad tendencies over the course of his career and doesn't take many ill-advised shots anymore, being pretty efficient overall. He's absolutely deadly with his jumper when left open, scoring 1.46 points per shot on uncontested jumpers according to Synergy, and he should see many more of those in the NBA as he transitions to having much less defensive attention.
With many volume shooters entering the NBA, there is a large change in role in terms of how often the ball is in their hands or what types of shots they're getting, but if he lands in a good situation, Nesmith's only adjustment will be the number of shots he takes, not the type. Any up-tempo team would be a good fit, though he could excel just as easily in a half court-oriented team with a lot of screening and ball movement.
Nesmith's lack of great athletic tools is somewhat concerning, though his solid size at 6'7 combined with a high release and a shot that doesn't need much separation should somewhat mitigate the increased athleticism and length he'll see from defenders. Transitioning from a first to likely third or fourth option will also help, while his high motor, constant off-ball movement, and feel for getting open will likely be his biggest assets. If he continues to exhibit those traits with a smaller role, he can be a major asset for a well-run half court offense.
Nesmith showed some improvements with his ability to attack off the dribble as a freshman, though it is still not a great strength, as his first step is underwhelming and he lacks much in the lane of advanced ball-handling. He occasionally shows some toughness going to the rim and isn't afraid of contact, while he also has a nice floater in the lane, which he gets off easily at his size in spite of his lack of vertical explosiveness.
Nesmith's biggest assets in his dribble-drive game are his decisiveness and off-ball motion, however, as he frequently gets a half step on his man before he even puts the ball on the floor due to the positions he catches the ball in. This, combined with his quick decision-making and good recognition of driving lanes make him dangerous with straight-line drives from the wing, which should at least be enough to keep NBA defenses honest.
He'll never likely be a great finisher at the rim, nor one to take his man consistently in isolation, but has the feel and skills to utilize the dribble-drive playing more off the ball, something that will likely be critical to separate him from being just a perimeter shooter.
Another area Nesmith improved upon during his time in college is his passing game, something he'll likely need to continue doing at the pro level. He shows occasional prowess both on simple drive-and-dishes and operating pick-and-rolls, being a solid passer for a wing. Given his likely diminished scoring role in the pros, turning this area from adequate to a strength could definitely help him become a useful cog, and it would go well with his prowess moving off the ball.
While there are some concerns about Nesmith's athleticism hurting his offensive game at the next level, the bigger concerns lie on the defensive end, where he is noticeably lacking in lateral quickness and is taken off the dribble often.
Nesmith's effort level on the defensive end has improved during his time in college, and he shows solid awareness and makes good rotations off the ball, but his lack of quickness is certainly something that can be exploited. His problems can be hid somewhat on good defensive teams, and his apparent effort level and capacity for playing good team defense will certainly be useful, though he'd have a lot of work to do to even become an average NBA defender overall.
Nesmith's defensive problems should be equally pronounced at either the shooting guard or small forward positions, and the questions for teams will be how much can they coach him up and whether his offensive strengths do enough to outweigh his defensive shortcomings. His progress as a freshman and strong season overall definitely quell those concerns, at least somewhat.
Looking forward, Nesmith's scoring versatility and the diverse roles he's played at the college level make him a potentially good fit in a variety of offenses in the NBA. His lack of great athleticism will likely always limit him from becoming an offensive focal point, and being drafted by a young team lacking go-to scorers might give him opportunities, but would likely not help his long-term development.
Currently projected as a mid-first rounder, Nesmith will likely have a chance to be drafted by a playoff-caliber team, where he could find early opportunities to be an offensive cog with his off-ball movement and spot shooting ability. Being equally capable from both mid and long range while not needing the ball in his hands to score, Nesmith would fit well on a team with a balanced offense that also has the defenders to make up for his shortcomings. San Antonio, Denver, and Utah are three obvious examples, especially because they're all known for their history with spot-shooting wings, though he could also excel on an up-tempo team with a penchant for pushing the ball ahead for open shots.
With his highly developed perimeter skill set and feel for the game, Nesmith could contribute early in his career, and probably doesn't have a significant upside beyond what he is now due to his physical limitations. There's no guarantee he seamlessly makes the role to being a lesser scoring option, however, and he will need to stay away from the bad habits he had earlier in his college career, something being drafted onto a winning team with strong coaching would definitely help avoid.
OK, I lied. That wasn't Nesmith's profile. That was Klay Thompson's DraftExpress write-up from 2011. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Klay-Thompson-5490/ - except I changed "Thompson" to "Nesmith" and "junior" to "freshman".

From what I am reading in this thread, that profile sounds like it could have been written from Nesmith
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,929
Kiev, Ukraine
Found this really interesting write-up on Nesmith:

A go-to scorer at the college level who uses a good number of possessions, the biggest initial question for Nesmith is how big of a transition he'll have to make in the NBA. The good news is that unlike many high-scoring college players, he isn't really a dominant ball-handler and already is used in multiple situations operating off the ball.
Relying heavily on his perimeter shot (308 jump shots compared to 123 shots around the basket in the half court this season according to Synergy), Nesmith is constantly moving without the ball and coming around screens, showing a great knack for finding open areas of the floor and being multi-capable once the ball gets in his hands. Making quick decisions and showing good scoring instincts, Nesmith doesn't usually have the ball for that long before it leaves his hands.
Nesmith is at his most comfortable spotting up or coming around screens, showing excellent shooting mechanics with consistent balance and a high and quick release. He has cut down on bad tendencies over the course of his career and doesn't take many ill-advised shots anymore, being pretty efficient overall. He's absolutely deadly with his jumper when left open, scoring 1.46 points per shot on uncontested jumpers according to Synergy, and he should see many more of those in the NBA as he transitions to having much less defensive attention.
With many volume shooters entering the NBA, there is a large change in role in terms of how often the ball is in their hands or what types of shots they're getting, but if he lands in a good situation, Nesmith's only adjustment will be the number of shots he takes, not the type. Any up-tempo team would be a good fit, though he could excel just as easily in a half court-oriented team with a lot of screening and ball movement.
Nesmith's lack of great athletic tools is somewhat concerning, though his solid size at 6'7 combined with a high release and a shot that doesn't need much separation should somewhat mitigate the increased athleticism and length he'll see from defenders. Transitioning from a first to likely third or fourth option will also help, while his high motor, constant off-ball movement, and feel for getting open will likely be his biggest assets. If he continues to exhibit those traits with a smaller role, he can be a major asset for a well-run half court offense.
Nesmith showed some improvements with his ability to attack off the dribble as a freshman, though it is still not a great strength, as his first step is underwhelming and he lacks much in the lane of advanced ball-handling. He occasionally shows some toughness going to the rim and isn't afraid of contact, while he also has a nice floater in the lane, which he gets off easily at his size in spite of his lack of vertical explosiveness.
Nesmith's biggest assets in his dribble-drive game are his decisiveness and off-ball motion, however, as he frequently gets a half step on his man before he even puts the ball on the floor due to the positions he catches the ball in. This, combined with his quick decision-making and good recognition of driving lanes make him dangerous with straight-line drives from the wing, which should at least be enough to keep NBA defenses honest.
He'll never likely be a great finisher at the rim, nor one to take his man consistently in isolation, but has the feel and skills to utilize the dribble-drive playing more off the ball, something that will likely be critical to separate him from being just a perimeter shooter.
Another area Nesmith improved upon during his time in college is his passing game, something he'll likely need to continue doing at the pro level. He shows occasional prowess both on simple drive-and-dishes and operating pick-and-rolls, being a solid passer for a wing. Given his likely diminished scoring role in the pros, turning this area from adequate to a strength could definitely help him become a useful cog, and it would go well with his prowess moving off the ball.
While there are some concerns about Nesmith's athleticism hurting his offensive game at the next level, the bigger concerns lie on the defensive end, where he is noticeably lacking in lateral quickness and is taken off the dribble often.
Nesmith's effort level on the defensive end has improved during his time in college, and he shows solid awareness and makes good rotations off the ball, but his lack of quickness is certainly something that can be exploited. His problems can be hid somewhat on good defensive teams, and his apparent effort level and capacity for playing good team defense will certainly be useful, though he'd have a lot of work to do to even become an average NBA defender overall.
Nesmith's defensive problems should be equally pronounced at either the shooting guard or small forward positions, and the questions for teams will be how much can they coach him up and whether his offensive strengths do enough to outweigh his defensive shortcomings. His progress as a freshman and strong season overall definitely quell those concerns, at least somewhat.
Looking forward, Nesmith's scoring versatility and the diverse roles he's played at the college level make him a potentially good fit in a variety of offenses in the NBA. His lack of great athleticism will likely always limit him from becoming an offensive focal point, and being drafted by a young team lacking go-to scorers might give him opportunities, but would likely not help his long-term development.
Currently projected as a mid-first rounder, Nesmith will likely have a chance to be drafted by a playoff-caliber team, where he could find early opportunities to be an offensive cog with his off-ball movement and spot shooting ability. Being equally capable from both mid and long range while not needing the ball in his hands to score, Nesmith would fit well on a team with a balanced offense that also has the defenders to make up for his shortcomings. San Antonio, Denver, and Utah are three obvious examples, especially because they're all known for their history with spot-shooting wings, though he could also excel on an up-tempo team with a penchant for pushing the ball ahead for open shots.
With his highly developed perimeter skill set and feel for the game, Nesmith could contribute early in his career, and probably doesn't have a significant upside beyond what he is now due to his physical limitations. There's no guarantee he seamlessly makes the role to being a lesser scoring option, however, and he will need to stay away from the bad habits he had earlier in his college career, something being drafted onto a winning team with strong coaching would definitely help avoid.
OK, I lied. That wasn't Nesmith's profile. That was Klay Thompson's DraftExpress write-up from 2011. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Klay-Thompson-5490/ - except I changed "Thompson" to "Nesmith" and "junior" to "freshman".

From what I am reading in this thread, that profile sounds like it could have been written from Nesmith
Wow, as I was reading, I thought it was a repeat of a Nesmith article I had read elsewhere.

Man, that reads completely identically.
 

benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,354
Santa Monica
Found this really interesting write-up on Nesmith:

A go-to scorer at the college level who uses a good number of possessions, the biggest initial question for Nesmith is how big of a transition he'll have to make in the NBA. The good news is that unlike many high-scoring college players, he isn't really a dominant ball-handler and already is used in multiple situations operating off the ball.
Relying heavily on his perimeter shot (308 jump shots compared to 123 shots around the basket in the half court this season according to Synergy), Nesmith is constantly moving without the ball and coming around screens, showing a great knack for finding open areas of the floor and being multi-capable once the ball gets in his hands. Making quick decisions and showing good scoring instincts, Nesmith doesn't usually have the ball for that long before it leaves his hands.
Nesmith is at his most comfortable spotting up or coming around screens, showing excellent shooting mechanics with consistent balance and a high and quick release. He has cut down on bad tendencies over the course of his career and doesn't take many ill-advised shots anymore, being pretty efficient overall. He's absolutely deadly with his jumper when left open, scoring 1.46 points per shot on uncontested jumpers according to Synergy, and he should see many more of those in the NBA as he transitions to having much less defensive attention.
With many volume shooters entering the NBA, there is a large change in role in terms of how often the ball is in their hands or what types of shots they're getting, but if he lands in a good situation, Nesmith's only adjustment will be the number of shots he takes, not the type. Any up-tempo team would be a good fit, though he could excel just as easily in a half court-oriented team with a lot of screening and ball movement.
Nesmith's lack of great athletic tools is somewhat concerning, though his solid size at 6'7 combined with a high release and a shot that doesn't need much separation should somewhat mitigate the increased athleticism and length he'll see from defenders. Transitioning from a first to likely third or fourth option will also help, while his high motor, constant off-ball movement, and feel for getting open will likely be his biggest assets. If he continues to exhibit those traits with a smaller role, he can be a major asset for a well-run half court offense.
Nesmith showed some improvements with his ability to attack off the dribble as a freshman, though it is still not a great strength, as his first step is underwhelming and he lacks much in the lane of advanced ball-handling. He occasionally shows some toughness going to the rim and isn't afraid of contact, while he also has a nice floater in the lane, which he gets off easily at his size in spite of his lack of vertical explosiveness.
Nesmith's biggest assets in his dribble-drive game are his decisiveness and off-ball motion, however, as he frequently gets a half step on his man before he even puts the ball on the floor due to the positions he catches the ball in. This, combined with his quick decision-making and good recognition of driving lanes make him dangerous with straight-line drives from the wing, which should at least be enough to keep NBA defenses honest.
He'll never likely be a great finisher at the rim, nor one to take his man consistently in isolation, but has the feel and skills to utilize the dribble-drive playing more off the ball, something that will likely be critical to separate him from being just a perimeter shooter.
Another area Nesmith improved upon during his time in college is his passing game, something he'll likely need to continue doing at the pro level. He shows occasional prowess both on simple drive-and-dishes and operating pick-and-rolls, being a solid passer for a wing. Given his likely diminished scoring role in the pros, turning this area from adequate to a strength could definitely help him become a useful cog, and it would go well with his prowess moving off the ball.
While there are some concerns about Nesmith's athleticism hurting his offensive game at the next level, the bigger concerns lie on the defensive end, where he is noticeably lacking in lateral quickness and is taken off the dribble often.
Nesmith's effort level on the defensive end has improved during his time in college, and he shows solid awareness and makes good rotations off the ball, but his lack of quickness is certainly something that can be exploited. His problems can be hid somewhat on good defensive teams, and his apparent effort level and capacity for playing good team defense will certainly be useful, though he'd have a lot of work to do to even become an average NBA defender overall.
Nesmith's defensive problems should be equally pronounced at either the shooting guard or small forward positions, and the questions for teams will be how much can they coach him up and whether his offensive strengths do enough to outweigh his defensive shortcomings. His progress as a freshman and strong season overall definitely quell those concerns, at least somewhat.
Looking forward, Nesmith's scoring versatility and the diverse roles he's played at the college level make him a potentially good fit in a variety of offenses in the NBA. His lack of great athleticism will likely always limit him from becoming an offensive focal point, and being drafted by a young team lacking go-to scorers might give him opportunities, but would likely not help his long-term development.
Currently projected as a mid-first rounder, Nesmith will likely have a chance to be drafted by a playoff-caliber team, where he could find early opportunities to be an offensive cog with his off-ball movement and spot shooting ability. Being equally capable from both mid and long range while not needing the ball in his hands to score, Nesmith would fit well on a team with a balanced offense that also has the defenders to make up for his shortcomings. San Antonio, Denver, and Utah are three obvious examples, especially because they're all known for their history with spot-shooting wings, though he could also excel on an up-tempo team with a penchant for pushing the ball ahead for open shots.
With his highly developed perimeter skill set and feel for the game, Nesmith could contribute early in his career, and probably doesn't have a significant upside beyond what he is now due to his physical limitations. There's no guarantee he seamlessly makes the role to being a lesser scoring option, however, and he will need to stay away from the bad habits he had earlier in his college career, something being drafted onto a winning team with strong coaching would definitely help avoid.
OK, I lied. That wasn't Nesmith's profile. That was Klay Thompson's DraftExpress write-up from 2011. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Klay-Thompson-5490/ - except I changed "Thompson" to "Nesmith" and "junior" to "freshman".

From what I am reading in this thread, that profile sounds like it could have been written from Nesmith
well played Wade

If Nesmith puts in the work (court + film room), Brad will eventually turn Nesmith and his 7' wingspan into a + defensive player
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
18,167
He doesn't have a 7 foot wingspan it should be noted its consistently listed at 6'10" which isn't at all bad, but pretty different from 7'
 

benhogan

Granite is his new binky
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
9,354
Santa Monica
He doesn't have a 7 foot wingspan it should be noted its consistently listed at 6'10" which isn't at all bad, but pretty different from 7'
Thought I heard Danny say that? I know its been tough to get accurate measurements this year


Danny & Co went to Charleston for a private workout, I'd expect they did measurements. Then again Danny called Pritchard 2X winner of Pac-12 POY (which he wasn't) so DAR might be light on the details
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
20,763
Wow, as I was reading, I thought it was a repeat of a Nesmith article I had read elsewhere.

Man, that reads completely identically.
Yeah, I don't have time to keep up on draft prospect write-ups but it seemed scarily similar to what people have posted here. Hopefully lightning will strike twice.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2009
6,064

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,929
Kiev, Ukraine
Thanks for the video, wade. His discussion of what he worked on as the year progressed to improve defensively was interesting.

This block at 28:04...man, the kid has some serious length:
View: https://youtu.be/koltoZpL7l4?t=1684


(Disclaimer: the following does not mean I think Nesmith is a sure thing, although I'm quite high on him.)

I just don't get most of the Nesmith criticism. People return over and over again to the lack of ability to create off the dribble and show passing vision. However, nearly everyone who criticizes him also seems to think that his shot is for real.

I don't want to sound like a broken record, but is this just one of those things where people take forever to price a skill until there are examples of lots of guys getting paid from that skill? Like how elite defense with pluggable offense took a long time to be valued correctly?

Even a guy as elite as Klay Thompson kept hearing questions like "could be a #1 offensive option with the ball in his hands?" Sure, peak Melo would be a lot better as a #1 than peak Klay, but peak Klay is way more valuable to a team with an elite #1 than peak Melo. If you have a clear #1 guy locked in for 5 years, you absolutely want to be trying to draft peak Klay.
 
Last edited:

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
36,384
Thanks for the video, wade. His discussion of what he worked on as the year progressed to improve defensively was interesting.

This block at 28:04...man, the kid has some serious length:
View: https://youtu.be/koltoZpL7l4?t=1684


(Disclaimer: the following does not mean I think Nesmith is a sure thing, although I'm quite high on him.)

I just don't get most of the Nesmith criticism. People return over and over again to the lack of ability to create off the dribble and show passing vision. However, nearly everyone who criticizes him also seems to think that his shot is for real.

I don't want to sound like a broken record, but is this just one of those things where people take forever to price a skill until there are examples of lots of guys getting paid from that skill? Like how elite defense with pluggable offense took a long time to be valued correctly?

Even a guy as elite as Klay Thompson kept hearing questions like "could be a #1 offensive option with the ball in his hands?" Sure, peak Melo would be a lot better as a #1 than peak Klay, but peak Klay is way more valuable to a team with an elite #1 than peak Melo. If you have a clear #1 guy locked in for 5 years, you absolutely want to be trying to draft peak Klay.
I'm with you on this. I love the Nesmith pick. To get this kind of talent at #14 in a weak draft is pretty good. It may take him a little while to adjust to NBA speed/athleticism but the shooting skills should play and he has enough size/athleticism to not be a massive liability on the defensive end. Playing off of the Jay's should be quite lucrative for Nesmith.

He's not without his limitations but you don't really have to squint to see a good NBA player here. I have far more reservations about a guy like Langford who needs a material improvement in shooting to be anything special.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,929
Kiev, Ukraine
I'm with you on this. I love the Nesmith pick. To get this kind of talent at #14 in a weak draft is pretty good. It may take him a little while to adjust to NBA speed/athleticism but the shooting skills should play and he has enough size/athleticism to not be a massive liability on the defensive end. Playing off of the Jay's should be quite lucrative for Nesmith.

He's not without his limitations but you don't really have to squint to see a good NBA player here. I have far more reservations about a guy like Langford who needs a material improvement in shooting to be anything special.
Sign off completely on this. And even though I'm probably inhaling hopium, I am fine throwing down the prediction that Nesmith will be considered an average defender by the end of year 1. His size and mindset are going to get him there.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
3,065
Sign off completely on this. And even though I'm probably inhaling hopium, I am fine throwing down the prediction that Nesmith will be considered an average defender by the end of year 1. His size and mindset are going to get him there.
He’s going to have to be at least an average defender, or he’s not going to get PT (unless the team is ravaged by injuries)
 

Steve Dillard

wishes drew noticed him instead of sweet & sour
SoSH Member
Oct 7, 2003
5,077
As a modest NBA fan when the Celts are good, I'm OK with a bailout 3 shooter if Tatum gets stuck in his one-on-one to end the quarter. Semi or Williams in the corner were not my thing.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
2,598
Saint Paul, MN
Going by what I am reading here, and assuming his shot transfers to the NBA, it seems like his floor is Duncan Robinson, and his ceiling is Klay Thompson. A pretty wide range, but still a range that incorporates a many scenarios where he can help this team.
His floor is a heck of a lot lower than a guy who just had a season where he was in the conversation for best shooter in the league
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
20,763
Thanks for the video, wade. His discussion of what he worked on as the year progressed to improve defensively was interesting.

This block at 28:04...man, the kid has some serious length:
View: https://youtu.be/koltoZpL7l4?t=1684


(Disclaimer: the following does not mean I think Nesmith is a sure thing, although I'm quite high on him.)

I just don't get most of the Nesmith criticism. People return over and over again to the lack of ability to create off the dribble and show passing vision. However, nearly everyone who criticizes him also seems to think that his shot is for real.

I don't want to sound like a broken record, but is this just one of those things where people take forever to price a skill until there are examples of lots of guys getting paid from that skill? Like how elite defense with pluggable offense took a long time to be valued correctly?

Even a guy as elite as Klay Thompson kept hearing questions like "could be a #1 offensive option with the ball in his hands?" Sure, peak Melo would be a lot better as a #1 than peak Klay, but peak Klay is way more valuable to a team with an elite #1 than peak Melo. If you have a clear #1 guy locked in for 5 years, you absolutely want to be trying to draft peak Klay.
Thanks for pointing that out as I don't have time to watch the entire thing right now.

For people also looking for clips, just after the block that Lovegtm points out, there are a couple of clips of close-outs. One poor close-out and two good close-outs. But more tellingly to me is Nesmith's analysis - he seems to get defense, understand concepts, and can apply them. That at least should make him a passable defender. We'll see how his rotations are but it's good to have someone with a 6'10", 6'11" 7'0" wingspan with the footspeed of a wing closing out on shooters rather than someone significantly smaller. Or bigger for that matter.
 
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DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
4,402
His floor is a heck of a lot lower than a guy who just had a season where he was in the conversation for best shooter in the league
Yeah, I’ll go out on a limb and say if Nesmith shoots 45% from 3 on over 8 attempts per game with a 68.4 TS%, he’ll generally be considered a success at #14.

FWIW, Robinson also graded out very well last year on defense in most advanced stats. He was first among SGs in DRPM, for example.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
47,082
deep inside Guido territory
Yeah, I’ll go out on a limb and say if Nesmith shoots 45% from 3 on over 8 attempts per game with a 68.4 TS%, he’ll generally be considered a success at #14.

FWIW, Robinson also graded out very well last year on defense in most advanced stats. He was first among SGs in DRPM, for example.
We have to remember as well that Robinson wasn't Duncan Robinson his first year in the league either. He only appeared in 15 games for the Heat in 2018-2019 and only shot 10-for-35 from 3 in those 15 games. He was a totally different player this season because he worked his ass off in the offseason to get better. Everybody needs to expect that Nesmith will go through growing pains this year and depending on how the year is going he may be up in Portland to get playing time.