I look at it this way: a few years back, Buddy Hield had a red hot start as a senior after shooting 23%, 38%, and 36% in his first three years at OK. Over 50% in his 1st 20 games, and then he cooled quite a bit and finished more in the high 30%-40% range over the final 17. He was drafted 6th in another iffy draft despite being old, not much of a point guard, not much of a defender, and not really popping until his senior year. And a LOT of people were clamoring for Boston to take him and help fill their need for outside shooting.
Would have been an awful pick, but say they were able to grab him at 16 that year, we'd probably feel pretty decent about that. So right now, I am feeling pretty decent about grabbing a player to fill a similar role as that at 14.