C's pick Aaron Nesmith #14 overall

amarshal2

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People got burned by Edwards not working out. In reality, sometimes guys come into the NBA and remain able to shoot! Here's hoping.
Semi is also a guy who improved a bunch as a shooter late in his college career and never really got it back in the NBA. Obviously he was a much lower pick who people had less faith in.
 

tbrown_01923

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Semi is also a guy who improved a bunch as a shooter late in his college career and never really got it back in the NBA. Obviously he was a much lower pick who people had less faith in.
Semi's stroke is less than ideal - Nesmith has a much smoother J and get it off quickly.
 

Cesar Crespo

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James Young had a pretty stroke but he's not a perfect comp either.


hopefully he works out better than those 3 but they are all possibilities.
 

mauf

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With a team ready-made to win, go get the players that fit the weaknesses the team has. I think they have partly done that with Nesmith and Pritchard. Now go get a vet big that can match up with Embiid and Bam.
Rookies are usually useless, and the team will look different by 2022.

That said, I don’t think Danny drafted based on need. If he did, he probably would’ve grabbed a point guard or a big. Instead, he grabbed the best available wing, which is consistent with his overall philosophy of stockpiling young wings. And I’m sure Tyler Herro looked like a high floor/low ceiling guy a year ago, so we might be pleasantly surprised by Nesmith.
 

lovegtm

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Rookies are usually useless, and the team will look different by 2022.

That said, I don’t think Danny drafted based on need. If he did, he probably would’ve grabbed a point guard or a big. Instead, he grabbed the best available wing, which is consistent with his overall philosophy of stockpiling young wings. And I’m sure Tyler Herro looked like a high floor/low ceiling guy a year ago, so we might be pleasantly surprised by Nesmith.
The ceilings is always higher than you think for guys who end up really being able to shoot.

That holds true from role players all the way up to Steph.
 

RedOctober3829

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Rookies are usually useless, and the team will look different by 2022.

That said, I don’t think Danny drafted based on need. If he did, he probably would’ve grabbed a point guard or a big. Instead, he grabbed the best available wing, which is consistent with his overall philosophy of stockpiling young wings. And I’m sure Tyler Herro looked like a high floor/low ceiling guy a year ago, so we might be pleasantly surprised by Nesmith.
I would definitely think more bench scoring and improved 3-point shooting would be something they needed to get. Ainge selected Nesmith with his shooting ability in mind. Ainge has a tendency to draft wings who have elite athletic traits but not necessarily polished shooters. Nesmith is a different kind of player.
 

Kliq

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James Young had a pretty stroke but he's not a perfect comp either.


hopefully he works out better than those 3 but they are all possibilities.
An old beat writer told me that James Young was like, the laziest NBA player in history and the Celtics couldn't believe how little effort he put into improving.
 

nighthob

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That may be a touch harsh, however I will say that someone gave me the tip that post-Young the organization prioritized gym rats because Young was just generally uncoachable.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I would definitely think more bench scoring and improved 3-point shooting would be something they needed to get. Ainge selected Nesmith with his shooting ability in mind. Ainge has a tendency to draft wings who have elite athletic traits but not necessarily polished shooters. Nesmith is a different kind of player.
Yeah, players report in a week and the season starts in a month. Rookies are usually worthless to good teams, and will be even more so in this abbreviated off season, so having a guy who can know his role on offense (standing in the corner at first, then maybe some movement and the screening/floppy sets similar to what Stackhouse had him doing) well coming in may allow Nesmith to provide some value and get him a sense of NBA game speed.
 

amarshal2

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Let’s be honest. Picking a guy whose entire value is his ability to shoot at a way above average clip based primarily on half a college season worth of shooting is an extremely risky decision. Im not worried about his ceiling. If he is the best shooter in the draft 14 will be too low by quite a bit. I’m worried about his floor. There’s very high bust potential here.
 

nighthob

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His shooting form is quite good. It took a season to adjust to speed of the college game and it will probably take him a season to adjust to the speed of the NBA. But he’s a classic high floor/low ceiling player. Saddiq Bey could end up being the better 3&D guy if he cleans up his shot, Boston’s betting that the guy with the shot can play above average D.
 

lovegtm

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His shooting form is quite good. It took a season to adjust to speed of the college game and it will probably take him a season to adjust to the speed of the NBA. But he’s a classic high floor/low ceiling player. Saddiq Bey could end up being the better 3&D guy if he cleans up his shot, Boston’s betting that the guy with the shot can play above average D.
Not to get carried away, since I think you're basically right, but what is the ceiling for an insane shooter who plays average-ish D?

Like, what would Duncan Robinson or Bertans get paid on the open market if they were, say, Tobias Harris-level defenders?

I've been saying this since pre-draft, but it would really improve the Celtics Jays+Smart trajectory to hit on an elite shooter with average D in the draft, trade, or FA. Of course every team wants shooting, but those 3 are so versatile that the shooter gains a ton of value.
 

Royal Reader

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I'm unsure of the long-term outcome, because I don't particularly see myself as having any ability whatsoever to project young guys. I just love the idea of fielding two fewer non-shooters on the second unit in 2021.
 

amarshal2

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His shooting form is quite good. It took a season to adjust to speed of the college game and it will probably take him a season to adjust to the speed of the NBA. But he’s a classic high floor/low ceiling player. Saddiq Bey could end up being the better 3&D guy if he cleans up his shot, Boston’s betting that the guy with the shot can play above average D.
I agree his form is great. I agree his progress is promising and potentially very real. But you're choosing optimism as a base case.

How many great form shooters aren't one of the best three point shooters in the world? How many great form shooters (or crappy ones) have hot streaks where they shoot 50% from (college) 3 for a little while and regress?

If he's merely a slightly above average or above average three point shooter he's barely an NBA player. Semi shot .378 from three this past season and is an above average defender. If the reports are true that Neismith is sort of average-ish on D and rebounding and well below average on all things shot creation and playmaking, and he settles in as a .380 3-point shooter...then that's a bust. That's a low floor minimum salary journeyman.

lovegtm covered the upside well enough. He doesn't have all-nba potential but he's still got plenty of ceiling if he can be one of the ~5-10 best shooters in the NBA for a while.
 
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chilidawg

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If he's merely a slightly above average or above average three point shooter he's barely an NBA player. Semi shot .378 from three this past season and is an above average defender. If the reports are true that Neismith is sort of average-ish on D and rebounding and well below average on all things shot creation and playmaking, and he settles in as a .380 3-point shooter...then that's a bust. That's a low floor minimum salary journeyman.
Semi Ojeleye can't do anything besides sit in the corner and shoot wide open 3's, and is vastly overrated as a defender. Nesmith has a far more well rounded offensive game, shooting off the dribble, step backs etc. He also has the length to project as a better defender.
 

amarshal2

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Semi Ojeleye can't do anything besides sit in the corner and shoot wide open 3's, and is vastly overrated as a defender. Nesmith has a far more well rounded offensive game, shooting off the dribble, step backs etc. He also has the length to project as a better defender.
His highlight reel is almost entirely catch and shoot three pointers. He looks very awkward going to the basket. Zero play making. There's a little shot creation there but not a ton.

Here's his Ringer weaknesses profile as an example:
MINUSES
  • Struggles finishing at the rim against length and contact. He’s not much of a leaper and is prone to getting his shot blocked or heavily altered.
  • Shot-creation ability: He lacks shake as a ball handler, burst on drives, and explosiveness in the paint.
  • Passing vision: He can make basic reads, but he isn’t going to make any advanced plays or deliver the ball with precision.
  • Man-to-man defense needs work. He’s slow laterally and would struggle against speedy guards. Improving his pliability would help him.
 

128

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lovegtm covered the upside well enough. He doesn't have all-nba potential but he's still got plenty of ceiling if he can be one of the ~5-10 best shooters in the NBA for a while.
I'll be thrilled if Nesmith is one of the four best shooters on the Celtics in 2020-21. That alone would represent a major upgrade for the bench.
 

NomarsFool

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I agree Semi is overrated defensively. I feel like when Semi is on the floor we hear the announcers say "Good defense by Semi, better shot by __________". So, if all he is doing is giving the appearance of good defense, and the other guy still makes the shot - what good is it?

I don't hate the guy. He's a good teammate who doesn't cause problems and is useful as #13-15 on your bench. BUT, I don't think he's ever going to get better. So, I think we are talking about whether you use a roster spot on a minimally useful player vs. a developmental player.
 

amarshal2

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I shouldn't have called Semi above average defensively. I agree he's average. And my scenario where Neismith is "only" a .380 shooter relies on him being a Semi level defender or worse. If he's an above average defender then that's a "good year" Jae Crowder esque rotation player which is a fine outcome.
 

chilidawg

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His highlight reel is almost entirely catch and shoot three pointers. He looks very awkward going to the basket. Zero play making. There's a little shot creation there but not a ton.

Here's his Ringer weaknesses profile as an example:
MINUSES
  • Struggles finishing at the rim against length and contact. He’s not much of a leaper and is prone to getting his shot blocked or heavily altered.
  • Shot-creation ability: He lacks shake as a ball handler, burst on drives, and explosiveness in the paint.
  • Passing vision: He can make basic reads, but he isn’t going to make any advanced plays or deliver the ball with precision.
  • Man-to-man defense needs work. He’s slow laterally and would struggle against speedy guards. Improving his pliability would help him.
That's about as glass half empty post as I can imagine. There's also (from the Ringer):
  • Unlimited range; spaces the floor by demanding a defense’s attention. Skilled shooter off screens who takes tight routes, makes smart reads, and has elite fundamentals from catch to release.
  • Comfortable shooting 3s off the dribble. He has a nice side step and stepback 3 with clean footwork.
  • Straight-line driver who is decisive attacking closeouts. With his size and strength, he could develop into a good finisher.
  • Understands his role and excels within it. He’s a great screener, executes plays, takes smart shots, and keeps the ball moving.
  • Competitive on-ball defender; with some improved fundamentals and athleticism, he could become far more versatile.
  • Intelligent defender. Though he’s not a great athlete, his positioning makes him a deterrent at the nail and around the rim.
This from a guy who rates him much lower than the consensus.
 

Jimbodandy

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His highlight reel is almost entirely catch and shoot three pointers. He looks very awkward going to the basket. Zero play making. There's a little shot creation there but not a ton.

Here's his Ringer weaknesses profile as an example:
MINUSES
  • Struggles finishing at the rim against length and contact. He’s not much of a leaper and is prone to getting his shot blocked or heavily altered.
  • Shot-creation ability: He lacks shake as a ball handler, burst on drives, and explosiveness in the paint.
  • Passing vision: He can make basic reads, but he isn’t going to make any advanced plays or deliver the ball with precision.
  • Man-to-man defense needs work. He’s slow laterally and would struggle against speedy guards. Improving his pliability would help him.
Nobody is saying that he has no handle, no lateral movement on D, no vision at all, not an NBA body, etc. They're saying that he's not plus as those things. And at 14, that's what you get in any draft. If we picked him at 3, your "but listen, fellas" take would make more sense.

The fact that he fits an immediate need on this team is a big selling point too.
 

amarshal2

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I like the pick. I merely disagree he's high floor / low ceiling. I think he's got a pretty low floor and a pretty high ceiling. Other people seem far more confident he's going to be a great shooter based on a relatively small sample, and are therefore projecting a higher floor than I think is accurate.
 

tbrown_01923

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From the videos, Nesmith's ability to catch and shoot off a pick is a differentiator. The difficulty of some of his threes indicate a possibilty of higher upside, than the Semi's who sit in the corner and hit uncontested J's.

Nesmith's results and combination of mechanics are worth getting excited about. Agreed that he might not make it - but I am looking forward to seeing what he has on the court. What if he is Rip Hamilton (who was slippery off the ball and knew how to take advantage of picks) with more range? With some success it opens the possibilty of him being a decoy for slips to the rim and pops by the pickers... I think it is going to be fun to see how he shakes out over the next year plus.
 

Jimbodandy

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I like the pick. I merely disagree he's high floor / low ceiling. I think he's got a pretty low floor and a pretty high ceiling.
If he’s a only a .380 shooter and can play without otherwise stepping on his dick, he's already a high floor guy in 2020 NBA.

He'd have to be completely unplayable defensively to be a problem, and there's not a single piece of evidence that this is the case.
 

DannyDarwinism

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What is the median projection for a guy like Nesmith? Doug McDermott? Ben McLemore?
Yeah, McDermott’s close. Allan Crabbe is another. Anthony Morrow maybe.

But, to take another Creighton guy, if Kyle Korver is his ceiling, that would be a pretty damn useful guy for this roster.

Regarding the small sample size this year of the 52% 3PA, it’s important to keep in mind that that’s not the only data they have for projecting shooters. FT% is more highly correlated, three point volume is important as well, as are stats on long twos. Nesmith checks all those boxes. Plus they have stats for AAU, high school, camps and circuits. If a guy has a track record of all those things, plus great form with a quick and high release, that’s as good a bet as you’re gonna get in the draft.
 

amarshal2

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If he’s a only a .380 shooter and can play without otherwise stepping on his dick, he's already a high floor guy in 2020 NBA.

He'd have to be completely unplayable defensively to be a problem, and there's not a single piece of evidence that this is the case.
I've actually regretted using .380 since the start since that's still a pretty good outcome. Guys who shot ~.380 last year on volume are Kemba, Huerter, LaVine, and Kawhi. I don't think we can say he's a .380 3 point shooter on volume in the NBA as a base case.

Doug McDermott as the median projection? No. He shot .435 from 3 last year on reasonable volume. Fifth in the NBA. Without looking it up, my recollection is McDermott basically shot 50% from 3 for his entire four year college career. I also like Neismith's release and defensive potential more.
 
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benhogan

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I've actually regretted using .380 since the start since that's still a pretty good outcome. Guys who shot ~.380 last year on volume are Kemba, Huerter, LaVine, and Kawhi. I don't think we can say he's a .380 3 point shooter on volume in the NBA as a base case.

Doug McDermott as the median projection? No. He shot .435 from 3 last year on reasonable volume. Fifth in the NBA. Without looking it up, my recollection is McDermott basically shot 50% from 3 for his entire four year college career. I also like Neismith's release and defensive potential more.
Pretty insane % for 4 seasons. He almost got to 50% his Junior year

 

SteveF

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McDermott is one of the best shooters coming off screens too. 1.15 PPP only trailed Paul George among players with at least 1.5 FGA per game. (Granted, we're only talking 2-3 offensive possessions per game.)

That's better than Redick, Hield, Booker, McCollum, Robinson, etc.

His on-off numbers suggest he's not a particularly bad defender either. Toss in a 60%+ true shooting, and I'd think you'd be pretty happy if Nesmith turned into Doug McDermott.
 

BaseballJones

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His highlight reel is almost entirely catch and shoot three pointers. He looks very awkward going to the basket. Zero play making. There's a little shot creation there but not a ton.
Do you think they drafted him to be a playmaker, or a deadeye shooter that opens up the floor for JB and JT and KW?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I look at it this way: a few years back, Buddy Hield had a red hot start as a senior after shooting 23%, 38%, and 36% in his first three years at OK. Over 50% in his 1st 20 games, and then he cooled quite a bit and finished more in the high 30%-40% range over the final 17. He was drafted 6th in another iffy draft despite being old, not much of a point guard, not much of a defender, and not really popping until his senior year. And a LOT of people were clamoring for Boston to take him and help fill their need for outside shooting.

Would have been an awful pick, but say they were able to grab him at 16 that year, we'd probably feel pretty decent about that. So right now, I am feeling pretty decent about grabbing a player to fill a similar role as that at 14.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I like the pick. I merely disagree he's high floor / low ceiling. I think he's got a pretty low floor and a pretty high ceiling. Other people seem far more confident he's going to be a great shooter based on a relatively small sample, and are therefore projecting a higher floor than I think is accurate.
I think people are saying if his shot translates, he's going to be around awhile. If it doesn't, he doesn't get a 2nd contract.

The floor for most picks is out of the NBA in a few seasons.
 

Jimbodandy

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Semi shot 38% from 3 this year, I know Semi and he's no Aaron Nesmith.

I think people are underrating what Brad Stevens can do with a shooter like AN, with magnets like the Jays drawing attention
Yes. People are also forgetting that Nesmith is 6'6" too.

Imagine that we drafted a guy that shoots from the corner like 2019-2020 Jaylen and is roughly the same size. He doesn't do much else yet. But as a rookie, for 15 minutes a game, he can camp out and wait for other guys to dish open looks to him. He'll shoot 2-6 some nights with some 4-7 games mixed in, and he won't be a liability on defense. And when people sell out to close, he can quite easily reset and bang that. He'll benefit from their gravity, and they'll benefit from his.

And you don't have to imagine this, since we drafted him.
 

amarshal2

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I think people are saying if his shot translates, he's going to be around awhile. If it doesn't, he doesn't get a 2nd contract.

The floor for most picks is out of the NBA in a few seasons.
I agree with this. It's not very tangible, but my impression is that many people in this thread think "high floor" means he's very, very likely to get a second contract. Just like you and I seem to disagree with those who say "low ceiling" for a guy that could be Danny Green with a better shot.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Yes. People are also forgetting that Nesmith is 6'6" too.

Imagine that we drafted a guy that shoots from the corner like 2019-2020 Jaylen and is roughly the same size. He doesn't do much else yet. But as a rookie, for 15 minutes a game, he can camp out and wait for other guys to dish open looks to him. He'll shoot 2-6 some nights with some 4-7 games mixed in, and he won't be a liability on defense. And when people sell out to close, he can quite easily reset and bang that. He'll benefit from their gravity, and they'll benefit from his.

And you don't have to imagine this, since we drafted him.
What's nice about Nesmith is that for once we will actually be happy to see a young guy buried in the corner in most offensive sets instead of lamenting that he is being underutilized there.
 

radsoxfan

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I generally feel like it’s always better to just take the best player rather than draft for need, and I like upside as much as anyone.

But.... on a team with Tatum/Brown (and likely Kemba, maybe Hayward) I can definitely understand using a late lotto pick on someone that can slot in now and fills a need. This team was really killed by the lack of depth in the bubble.

I agree with Ainge and think Nesmith is going to be an above average NBA shooter, it’s just a question of his other skills (or lack thereof) will prevent him from getting on the floor. I’m optimistic his size, length, and BBIQ will be enough. We could really use someone to push Semi et al. to the end of the bench.
 

benhogan

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In a few weeks, we'll be lapping up videos of Nesmith/Pritchard vs. Smart/Brown in 3pt shooting contests

I know where I'm placing my shekels
 

lovegtm

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What's nice about Nesmith is that for once we will actually be happy to see a young guy buried in the corner in most offensive sets instead of lamenting that he is being underutilized there.
Na, we’ll soon be wanting him spaced above the break and moving off-ball :)

Those gaudy McDermott illustrate an important point about 3s: attempts are a skill too. He only took 3/4.4/6.1 per game his last 3 seasons, which means the looks were likely cleaner in general.

Nesmith's ability to generate 8+ 3s/game as a non-ball-handling focal point of the offense is really impressive.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I agree with this. It's not very tangible, but my impression is that many people in this thread think "high floor" means he's very, very likely to get a second contract. Just like you and I seem to disagree with those who say "low ceiling" for a guy that could be Danny Green with a better shot.
I think when people talk ceiling, they aren't talking about absolute best case scenario. Ceilings are also wrong all the time. What was Jokic's ceiling?

Nesmith's absolute ceiling is HOF. I think people just don't talk about best/worst case scenarios because most people know the worst case scenario is bust, but the absolute best case scenario just has such a small chance of happening it's not really worth discussing.

I think people use like 80% projections for a players ceiling rather than the 99th. I'd guess his 90-95% projection would be someone like Khris Middleton. His mid projection is probably Tony Snell. That assumes Nesmith isn't a turnstile anyway. I don't really know who I'd use for an 80th. I was thinking Otto Porter but that's not a really good comp.
 

lovegtm

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I think when people talk ceiling, they aren't talking about absolute best case scenario. Ceilings are also wrong all the time. What was Jokic's ceiling?

Nesmith's absolute ceiling is HOF. I think people just don't talk about best/worst case scenarios because most people know the worst case scenario is bust, but the absolute best case scenario just has such a small chance of happening it's not really worth discussing.

I think people use like 80% projections for a players ceiling rather than the 99th. I'd guess his 90-95% projection would be someone like Khris Middleton. His mid projection is probably Tony Snell. That assumes Nesmith isn't a turnstile anyway. I don't really know who I'd use for an 80th. I was thinking Otto Porter but that's not a really good comp.
Isn't Kyle Korver with above-average defense closer to the 95% outcome?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Na, we’ll soon be wanting him spaced above the break and moving off-ball :)

Those gaudy McDermott illustrate an important point about 3s: attempts are a skill too. He only took 3/4.4/6.1 per game his last 3 seasons, which means the looks were likely cleaner in general.

Nesmith's ability to generate 8+ 3s/game as a non-ball-handling focal point of the offense is really impressive.
thru their sophomore years:
McDermott: 2pt FG%: .606 (9.5 attempts), 3p%: .445 (3.1), FT%: .775 (4.0)
Nesmith: 2pt FG: .485 (4.5), 3p%: .410 (6.3), FT%: .825 (3.1)

The next 2 years, McDermott shot .870 from the line on 5.9 attempts. He ends up at .831.

I'd be curious to see the shot charts but I don't know where to find that info for college. .606 from 2 is insane and I'm guessing not all of those were lay ups. I'm guessing some where though, and that most/all of Nesmith's were not.

For reference, Waters was at .496, .340, .807 on 6.5, 5.7 and 4.2. Edwards was .455/.368/.817 on 7.2/7.1/4.2. Those are 2p%, not FG%.