C's pick Aaron Nesmith #14 overall

RedOctober3829

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It will all come down to the shot. If he is a high volume 40+% 3pt shooter, we will be happy. If he settles in the mid-30s, we will likely be unhappy. If his 2nd year leap is indicative of an even higher trajectory, we will be extremely happy. Not that his physical/athletic profile suggests there is a ton of projection left there, but NBA spacing can do a lot for wings. Will want to see how the BBIQ develops, but depending who he is on the floor with, things could be very simple for him (shoot the damn ball and don't mess up the rotations on D).

Hope we get to see him and Romeo running some two man game this season with Romeo as ball handler and Nesmith as screener.
He was the only good player on Vandy last year and he still shot at a more than 50% clip from 3. Given that at any time on the floor he'll be the 3rd option at best, he should see a lot of wide open looks.
 

benhogan

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He was the only good player on Vandy last year and he still shot at a more than 50% clip from 3. Given that at any time on the floor he'll be the 3rd option at best, he should see a lot of wide open looks.
I like Nesmith a lot, extreme floor spreading helps all his teammates

small nitpick, Vandy teammate Saben Lee was selected 38th
 

Jed Zeppelin

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People got burned by Edwards not working out. In reality, sometimes guys come into the NBA and remain able to shoot! Here's hoping.
He was the only good player on Vandy last year and he still shot at a more than 50% clip from 3. Given that at any time on the floor he'll be the 3rd option at best, he should see a lot of wide open looks.
Yeah this is why I am much more confident about Nesmith than Edwards, who as a little guy and ball handler is much tougher to place in a position to succeed on a winning team. What lineups can you use him in + he's learning to play off-ball, etc.

As a non-ball dominant player and credible defender with good size, Nesmith can theoretically fit in any combination of players that won't force him into uncomfortable situations on offense.
 

DannyDarwinism

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He was the only good player on Vandy last year and he still shot at a more than 50% clip from 3. Given that at any time on the floor he'll be the 3rd option at best, he should see a lot of wide open looks.
Saben Lee was drafted last night 38th overall by the Pistons after a very good junior year at Vandy.
 

BaseballJones

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He was the only good player on Vandy last year and he still shot at a more than 50% clip from 3. Given that at any time on the floor he'll be the 3rd option at best, he should see a lot of wide open looks.
Yep. If they keep Kemba, who's a really good penetrator and passer, along with JT and JB, someone is going to be open - Nesmith should get a ton of open threes, or if teams don't help out off him, JB, KW, and JT should get really nice driving lanes.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Personality-wise he seems like he would get along great with Grant, which is funny since they played for rivals in college (including some pretty epic battles).
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yeah Lee isn't bad, but Nesmith was far and away the top option for Vandy. It's not like there was tons of talent on the team. After they lost Nesmith, they completely collapsed.
True, but he got hurt one game into their conference schedule (after a loss to Auburn), so that may have had more to do with beating up on the Southeastern Louisiana tomato cans of the world vs the SEC big boys, than of Nesmith’s inherent value.

I do think he’s a great fit and a guy who can play minutes immediately given his skill set.
 

DJnVa

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One thing I think is important is that the reports say Stackhouse was running NBA-style sets to get Nesmith shots. If Boston can get him similar looks, I think that bodes well--granted he'll be facing a much higher level of defense but it's not going to be completely new to him.
 

The Social Chair

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One thing I think is important is that the reports say Stackhouse was running NBA-style sets to get Nesmith shots. If Boston can get him similar looks, I think that bodes well--granted he'll be facing a much higher level of defense but it's not going to be completely new to him.
I don't think they need to run offense for him. Just think about all of those wide open looks that Semi gets in Stevens offense.
 

lovegtm

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I don't think they need to run offense for him. Just think about all of those wide open looks that Semi gets in Stevens offense.
Yeah probably an even closer comp (in terms of looks he gets) would be rookie Tatum. He’ll have fewer drives off closeouts, but more 3s gotten off or pump/dribble into another 3.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Dean on Draft was not a fan of the Cs draft. (I haven't really followed drafting gurus since Tatum's draft but IIRC, he was cited here a bit during the run-up to JB and perhaps even JT).

2) Celtics Aaron Nesmith at #14 and Payton Pritchard at #26 are hands down two of the worst picks in the draft. Ainge has historically been a good GM but these are bad blunders while the rest of the league gets smarter

View: https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/1329452296619651076
.


Here is Dean's write-up on Nesmith (source):

Aaron Nesmith
Nesmith is projected to go mid-1st right now, but he seems like an incredibly risky guy to take anywhere in round 1. He is an undersized, unathletic wing who is probably going to be bad on defense and is limited as a creator.
His only real strength is that he is a good shooter, but it’s not even clear that he’s elite at his one dimenson. He made 82.5% FT in his NCAA career which is good but not great, and he only shot 33.7% from 3 as a freshman. His breakout as a sophomore entailed 52.2% 3P shooting for half a season until getting hurt, although it came for an incredibly weak portion of Vanderbilt’s schedule.
This is significant as Nesmith has a somewhat slow release for such a vaunted shooting prospect, and if he really is a merely good shooter he is going to be a dud.
 

NickEsasky

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A guy with 3200 followers doesn't like the Celtics draft. Color me concerned. /sarcasm
 

Devizier

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I thought, without checking twice, that Dean referred to Dean Oliver (grandpa of basketball metrics).
 
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lovegtm

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If Nesmith can shoot, Danny looks great. If not, he’s an idiot.

It’s still weird to me that people don’t see potentially elite shooting as a skill that you reach for. Like, Romeo Langford is probably better then Nesmith at every non-shooting aspect of basketball, and if Nesmith can shoot lights-out at volume, he probably ends up a better player.
 

BigSoxFan

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Dean on Draft was not a fan of the Cs draft. (I haven't really followed drafting gurus since Tatum's draft but IIRC, he was cited here a bit during the run-up to JB and perhaps even JT).

2) Celtics Aaron Nesmith at #14 and Payton Pritchard at #26 are hands down two of the worst picks in the draft. Ainge has historically been a good GM but these are bad blunders while the rest of the league gets smarter

View: https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/1329452296619651076
.


Here is Dean's write-up on Nesmith (source):

Aaron Nesmith
Nesmith is projected to go mid-1st right now, but he seems like an incredibly risky guy to take anywhere in round 1. He is an undersized, unathletic wing who is probably going to be bad on defense and is limited as a creator.
His only real strength is that he is a good shooter, but it’s not even clear that he’s elite at his one dimenson. He made 82.5% FT in his NCAA career which is good but not great, and he only shot 33.7% from 3 as a freshman. His breakout as a sophomore entailed 52.2% 3P shooting for half a season until getting hurt, although it came for an incredibly weak portion of Vanderbilt’s schedule.
This is significant as Nesmith has a somewhat slow release for such a vaunted shooting prospect, and if he really is a merely good shooter he is going to be a dud.
6'6 215 is undersized? This is a bit of a clown write up, if you ask me.
 

Cellar-Door

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A few years ago Dean had some interesting stuff, in particular in looking at data. Looking at his site, he isn't doing anywhere near the same depth of data, and he is not someone I trust at all when it comes to just tape (as seen by some very weird misreads of size/athleticism)
 

DannyDarwinism

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Dean Demakis has some unorthodox prospect takes that are just as bad and wrong just as often as anyone else’s. Often more so because he gets off on being brash and contrarian, and doesn’t seem to put much actual work into his opinions.

Edit- yeah what C-D said. He’s not putting in the effort he used to on the analytical end. There’s only so much time for writing truly embarrassing and regressive MRA dating tips.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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A few years ago Dean had some interesting stuff, in particular in looking at data. Looking at his site, he isn't doing anywhere near the same depth of data, and he is not someone I trust at all when it comes to just tape (as seen by some very weird misreads of size/athleticism)
Thanks. I thought Dean was some sort of analytics/draft expert but as I said I haven't followed him. Thought someone else might know and to the extent people want to get a laugh out his tweets, there's always that too.
 

128

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It’s still weird to me that people don’t see potentially elite shooting as a skill that you reach for. Like, Romeo Langford is probably better then Nesmith at every non-shooting aspect of basketball, and if Nesmith can shoot lights-out at volume, he probably ends up a better player.
I'm right there with you.
 

DGreenwood

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People keep mentioning Nesmith's excellent shot mechanics but does anyone else see an issue with his lower body? He has a tendency to let his knees buckle inward as he loads up, which would be a power leak. It's not a big deal to fix, it just doesn't inspire "excellent mechanics" to me.

edit: I added a pic

Nesmith Shot.png
 
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DannyDarwinism

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That level of knee valgus is really common in great jump shooters. There can certainly be too much- Dario Saric’s knees touch sometimes, then again so did Reggie Miller’s- but that pic you posted looks pretty standard to me.
 

DGreenwood

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I think that's one of the things modern shooters have worked on that has led to the increased range we see today. It's definitely going to cause an inefficient transfer of power from the floor. I'm not trying to make a big deal out of it though, it's just an observation, and he can certainly be a great shooter without ever addressing it.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Asshole Draft Twitter is still on the wrong side of the ledger from the Brown/Tatum years as far as I'm concerned.

edit: The Asshole part is why I am usually more likely to just read KOC or Lowe, who don't have the desperate need to impress everyone with their superior knowledge or analytical skillz like many of the edgelords out there. And I say that as someone who doesn't care for the Pritchard pick at all.
 
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DannyDarwinism

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I think that's one of the things modern shooters have worked on that has led to the increased range we see today. It's definitely going to cause an inefficient transfer of power from the floor. I'm not trying to make a big deal out of it though, it's just an observation, and he can certainly be a great shooter without ever addressing it.
I don’t know, most of the modern shooters with deep range have pretty significant knee valgus. This guy here says it actually increases power concentrically (on the way up).


I understand it’s not good eccentrically, and also a concern for knee injuries when there’s force behind it (i.e. don’t squat like this) but given its overwhelming incidence in great shooters, I don’t think it’s necessarily thought of as a corrective issue for trainers.
 

riboflav

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People keep mentioning Nesmith's excellent shot mechanics but does anyone else see an issue with his lower body? He has a tendency to let his knees buckle inward as he loads up, which would be a power leak. It's not a big deal to fix, it just doesn't inspire "excellent mechanics" to me.

edit: I added a pic

View attachment 36502
Shooting is momentum not power. Range is not determined by legs/knees. You're think is old school and wrong.
 

Devizier

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Where are the reports of Nesmith's (or any draft pick's) measurements coming from?

re: wingspan, all I see is "near 7-foot wingspan" from ESPN/DEx.

Sounds like agility might be his biggest weakness defensively?
 

Cellar-Door

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Where are the reports of Nesmith's (or any draft pick's) measurements coming from?

re: wingspan, all I see is "near 7-foot wingspan" from ESPN/DEx.

Sounds like agility might be his biggest weakness defensively?
As far as I know there are no official measurements since he skipped the combine. Everyone I've seen is using 6'10" for wingspan.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Where are the reports of Nesmith's (or any draft pick's) measurements coming from?

re: wingspan, all I see is "near 7-foot wingspan" from ESPN/DEx.

Sounds like agility might be his biggest weakness defensively?
Yeah, Vecenie’s summary of his defense reads:

“Not really a switchable defender despite being a wing. His lateral quickness being an issue, he’s susceptible to getting taken advantage of if teams run 1/3 ball-screens with his man. If he does end up turning into more of a negative on defense, it’ll be because of this.”

He has his wingspan as 6’11.He did not participate in the combine this year, so I don’t know where that’s from. He’s not a quick-twitch guy, but gains in explosiveness can be made with effort.
 

Jimbodandy

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The best part of any anti-Nesmith take is the strong argument for whichever different guy with major holes in his game should have been taken instead. There's a reason why the mocks past 3 were all fucking over the place.

Everyone in this draft had a hole: missing athleticism/bad body or doesn't do defense at all or has zero handle or a broken shot or is a tweener or has makeup question marks.

Plus there's the tradeoff of "can this guy help me immediately" vs. "could maybe be an alpha someday if everything hits perfectly". Like, if someone wants to make a case that the Cs don't need Nesmith badly enough now to pass on Hampton's alpha/beta ceiling in 3 years, fine. But the "what a shitty pick" take is incomprehensible to me.
 

Jimbodandy

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And griping about what one does with the 26th pick in a draft is also strange. The percentage of game-changers drafted 26 or lower/undrafted is pretty damn low.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That Dean guy just seems to say everyone is going to suck. It's like he's trying to hard to be the opposite of the old TV drafts where everyone picked was going to be a superstar.
 

RedOctober3829

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If Nesmith can shoot, Danny looks great. If not, he’s an idiot.

It’s still weird to me that people don’t see potentially elite shooting as a skill that you reach for. Like, Romeo Langford is probably better then Nesmith at every non-shooting aspect of basketball, and if Nesmith can shoot lights-out at volume, he probably ends up a better player.
Duncan Robinson was not that highly regarded coming out of Michigan, but he ended up breaking out this year. Nesmith is a better prospect than Robinson and it seems like he is a hard worker so I can see him improving still.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jerry Stackhouse is on the Sports Hub right now talking about Nesmith. Saying he's a hell of a player and the Celtics got "a jewel". Says he works hard, is already NBA ready as a shooter. Says he thinks they will be able to fit him in and highlights the good development system the Celtics have after seeing it up close coaching in the G-League. Says he was improving as a defender before he got hurt. He got beat to the middle too much, but was improving his footwork. Good thing is he'll be well coached with Brad Stevens. Says he has room to grow as a playmaker and thinks he'll get even better in that regard.
 

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Sounds like he doesn’t have the upside of Romeo, but is a lower risk to bust because it seems he already has the one above-average tool (in his case, shooting) that you need to be a useful rotation player. I prefer to gamble on upside, but I can live with the pick.
 

RedOctober3829

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Sounds like he doesn’t have the upside of Romeo, but is a lower risk to bust because it seems he already has the one above-average tool (in his case, shooting) that you need to be a useful rotation player. I prefer to gamble on upside, but I can live with the pick.
With a team ready-made to win, go get the players that fit the weaknesses the team has. I think they have partly done that with Nesmith and Pritchard. Now go get a vet big that can match up with Embiid and Bam.
 

DannyDarwinism

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That Dean guy just seems to say everyone is going to suck. It's like he's trying to hard to be the opposite of the old TV drafts where everyone picked was going to be a superstar.

His shtick is uber-confident declarative statements with absolutely no hint of hedging or any concession that there's uncertainty inherent in the process. (Kind of like his analytics-based dating advice, which is a real thing, and one that's even cringier than it sounds). It's annoying as hell and would play very poorly here, which is probably why I think he only lurks nowadays. He's wrong a ton, and as Cellar-Door noted, I don't trust his "eye-test" stuff at all, and he doesn't seem to even do much data-based analysis anymore

I got into a dumb Twitter argument wth him over Thybulle pre-draft last year because he tried to chalk up MT's outrageous colleges stocks production almost entirely to playing in a zone, and my outrageous pettiness (hat tip) forced me to root for a 76er for the entire year, and I'm still salty. But we'll always have Chinanu Onuako.
 

EL Jeffe

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For roster fit i was thinking the same thing with tatum, brown, langford and nesmith they should be able to put complimentary pairs of wings on the court.

His shot looks quick to me. (and i have only watched a few vids) it seems that under pressure he has a real quick release. With space his release looks slower - not like there is a different load, the form looks the same just much more deliberate. Am i imagining that? If not is that a feature or a bug?
No, you're not imagining that and it's a feature, not a bug. NBA-level closeouts are a completely different world from what he saw at Vanderbilt, both in the speed of the closeout and the length of the defender. That he can get contested shots off quickly is a good sign. The RJ Hunters of the world never seemed to adjust; Nesmith's form and release should definitely play in the NBA. Whether or not his lateral quickness (or lack thereof) does is a different story. But all indications are he's a great kid who puts in the work, so I'm fine with the pick. I was hoping for Lewis Jr. but the kid kept rising.
 

DannyDarwinism

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You can't say that and not link some.

Careful, this way lies online madness...


View: https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/1151500233223876610?s=20

"I mathematically solved dating. It will upset people who want everything to be equal + subjective. But that's not how reality works. Everybody has an objective attractiveness rating that determines their dating outcomes with extreme consistency"



https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L9gg51ZmRUSpKtw9d-Vkl5kDeyKHrrQPds_seZrOXtM/edit


Introducing... the Universal Attractiveness Rating! It's like VORP for the confused and lonely!
 

sezwho

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You're referring to the most recent playoffs, in which Hayward basically missed the first 2.5 rounds and was a shell of himself when he came back?
Yes, that guy! I get he was hurt again, but as of today he is one of the small group of Celtics I trust to either create or score when we need a clutch basket in nutcrunch time of an elimination game. With hanging the next banner as the goal, I see limited late scoring as the hard cap on this team's ceiling. Unless the Jays push through (and they might) we need more clutch creator/scorers that can defend their position as time ticks down, not fewer.

I put the odds of GH being healthy greater than those of us getting a more valuable player in trade.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Careful, this way lies online madness...


View: https://twitter.com/deanondraft/status/1151500233223876610?s=20

"I mathematically solved dating. It will upset people who want everything to be equal + subjective. But that's not how reality works. Everybody has an objective attractiveness rating that determines their dating outcomes with extreme consistency"



https://docs.google.com/document/d/1L9gg51ZmRUSpKtw9d-Vkl5kDeyKHrrQPds_seZrOXtM/edit


Introducing... the Universal Attractiveness Rating! It's like VORP for the confused and lonely!
Damn, that’s a really long way to say “you should date someone that you like and that likes you back.”
 

DannyDarwinism

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Damn, that’s a really long way to say “you should date someone that you like and that likes you back.”
That’s charitable! Having made the silly mistake of looking at it, it seems more like a really long way to say “date a woman as physically attractive as you are rich.”