Castillo: $72.5M paid, $7.2M value. Net -$65.3M. Percentage return: 10%His new contract hasn't even started yet, he'd have to be close to replacement level for 5 years to be worse than any of those 4
Sandoval: $94M paid, -$17.3M value. Net -$111.3M. Percentage return: -18.4%
Crawford: $31M paid (?), $1.9M value. Net -$29.1M. Percentage return: 6%
Hanley: $88M paid, $6.9M value. Net -$81.1M. Percentage return: 7.8%
Obviously one of these is not like the others; there will (hopefully) never be another Panda.
In order for the Sale deal to approach the folly of the winter-of-2015 deals, his comeback from TJ would have to be pretty much a dead loss. That's possible, but what seems like a more rational-pessimist scenario is that he comes back with significantly reduced effectiveness, throws a couple of years as a fringe-average starter, then gets put in the pen where his remaining stuff plays up better for the remainder of the contract. In that scenario the Sox get maybe 30% of the contract's value.