Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
Man, Tatum is so *big*. Like, him next to JB there really illustrates the size difference.
If the Heat lose the series, it will be remembered as a choke job, but the fact of the matter is that it was a major over-achievement on their end. I keep looking at their roster and it's a miracle they won 3 games to begin with.
I've thought the "shooting variance" explanation for going down 3-0 was total bullshit. Their defense was bad, and they got what they deserved.
However, in a 7 game series, shooting variance absolutely IS a factor, and that's why it's not single elimination.
Tonight was the Heat shooting variance game, as well as the loose ball/OReb variance game. The Celtics played their asses off defensively, however, and somehow pulled it out.
Gutty, gutty effort. People who are whining about almost-chokejobs are completely missing the point, and I feel sad for them, because life is fun and beautiful, regardless of what happens in Game 7.
However, in a 7 game series, shooting variance absolutely IS a factor, and that's why it's not single elimination.
Tonight was the Heat shooting variance game, as well as the loose ball/OReb variance game. The Celtics played their asses off defensively, however, and somehow pulled it out.
Gutty, gutty effort. People who are whining about almost-chokejobs are completely missing the point, and I feel sad for them, because life is fun and beautiful, regardless of what happens in Game 7.
Struts has come back down to Earth but Martin and Vincent are still playing incredibly. I had no idea they could sustain that over a long series. The Heat have definitely outperformed and competed their asses off.
What White did was one of the all time great Celtic moments, up there with one of the steals, etc. Up there with Malcolm Butler's interception. He was breaking for the rim before the shot missed. But was it a lucky bounce that the ball was right there for him when he got there? Of course.
As to the choke part of things: They had a 78-65 lead late in the third and allowed Miami to go on an 18-4 run to take the lead, 83-82. They responded with a run, 16-5, to retake the lead and go back up 10. Then they played out the rest if the game using the same kind of approach that nearly failed them in Miami game 7 a year ago. After going up 98-88, Miami once against outscored them 15-4 while the Celtics played timid ball hoping that Miami would run out of time before it completed its comeback. It was basically a replay of game 7 last year, one more piece of info in the "this team never learns" file. Even in a must win situation, they don't know how to play with a lead. It has bitten them before and might again.
On the plus side, Tatum and Brown looked more for midrange shots than they usually do. Between them they hit half a dozen or more. Against Miami's "collapse and swallow up the driver" defense, they need to be ale to pull up and shoot over the gathering crowd in front of the rim. Especially Brown. When his shot is there he needs to take it, and tonight he did.
If that tip didn’t happen, what an excruciating way to end a promising season.
But it did, and now it’s time to benefit from Game 7 Garden, in which Philly and Milwaukee were both recently destroyed. It will be quite an achievement if they dismantle their other chief conference rival the same way they did the Bucks and Sixers.
But it did, and now it’s time to benefit from Game 7 Garden, in which Philly and Milwaukee were both recently destroyed. It will be quite an achievement if they dismantle their other chief conference rival the same way they did the Bucks and Sixers.
Winning helps, ya know?
(I'm not suggesting that it was ever true that they hate each other, but of course they're going to be all hugs and unified after an incredible victory.)
A good omen that it sounds (at least to me) more like "Fenway!!" than "family!!"?
~
As a college graduation gift, my brother is taking my son to game 7. Out of the mouths of babes: NO! Finals or nothing!
I think perhaps he just lost control and didn't dribble again. The ball bouncing on the floor was due to a loss of control, not because he dribbled it. That would be a reasonable explanation by the refs. Things like that happen regularly. And he got fouled going up for the shot, pretty clearly IMO. I just hate that EVERY possession down the stretch, Butler just hurled himself into a Celtics' defender and got the call every single time.
Jimmy Butler double dribbles with 3 seconds left in game 6 - and is rewarded with 3 free throws..
At the two second mark of this clip Jimmy clearly has both hands on the ball. To be clear, A dribble ends when a player either touches the ball with both hands simultaneously or permits the ball to come to rest in one or both hands. This clearly happens in this play - prior to the foul by Horford...
On balance it was a good win with an exciting finish. I thought the Celtics were really good for most of the first half in terms of defense and creating offense without 3s. Miami hung around with three point shooting of their own while defending the three. I thought the Celtics became over-aware of the three point disparity in the second half, since without that component the game really was closer than it should have been, and they were forcing shots and then missing good ones. Responding to the Miami run was heartening, but the prevent offense is terrible. Seems like every time they swear it off, they backslide. No lead is safe when you play that way.
For game 7 they need to get the three established early, continue good defense and play dynamic wire to wire. They need a game 5, not a rock fight. My big worry is that they chalk up the game 6 three point disparity to variance, when to my eyes Miami denied the Celtics good looks (ie late in shit clock, contested, third option). The Celtics need to be proactive about it because of this happens in game 7 the can get discouraged early. Then it becomes a rock fight which they can win, but our hearts will explode.
For game 7 they need to get the three established early, continue good defense and play dynamic wire to wire. They need a game 5, not a rock fight. My big worry is that they chalk up the game 6 three point disparity to variance, when to my eyes Miami denied the Celtics good looks (ie late in shit clock, contested, third option). The Celtics need to be proactive about it because of this happens in game 7 the can get discouraged early. Then it becomes a rock fight which they can win, but our hearts will explode.
As bullish as I’ve always been on Tatum, I wasn’t sure if he’d ever be the guy to be averaging 27 in a playoff series on a 60% TS, while shooting 23% from three lol.
I don’t mind most of the threes though, he’s just missing. It’s actually the catch and shoot that he’s really struggled with these playoffs, 28% on them versus 35% on pull-ups.
Jaylen has been the opposite, 43% on C&S, and 28% on pull-ups. For this series, him and Tatum are a combined 16-74 from three. I’d bet they shoot at least a little better in a home game 7.
I don’t mind most of the threes though, he’s just missing. It’s actually the catch and shoot that he’s really struggled with these playoffs, 28% on them versus 35% on pull-ups.
Jaylen has been the opposite, 43% on C&S, and 28% on pull-ups. For this series, him and Tatum are a combined 16-74 from three. I’d bet they shoot at least a little better in a home game 7.
Robinson missing wide open 3s; Strus holding his dick in his hands while the man that Stan van Fucking Gundy said, "Strus better stick to White" was going first to the corner and then to the rim uncontested? And to many, the Celtics "almost choked.
Sometimes the lack of acknowledgement that the other guys are on the varsity, too, and that they aren't playing HORSE is somewhere between mystifying and evidence that "Sports" "talk" "radio" and its progeny have moved the Overton Window of sports watching to a really weird place.
Sometimes the lack of acknowledgement that the other guys are on the varsity, too, and that they aren't playing HORSE is somewhere between mystifying and evidence that "Sports" "talk" "radio" and its progeny have moved the Overton Window of sports watching to a really weird place.
The Heat's last nine possessions of the game last night:
98-88 Bos, 3:51 left, Butler fouled, makes 2-2 from the line
98-90 Bos, 3:25 left, Butler fouled, makes 1-2 from the line
100-91 Bos, 2:44 left, Vincent makes driving layup
100-93 Bos, 2:04 left, Butler makes 24 foot stepback three pointer
100-96 Bos, 1:31 left, Butler fouled, makes 1-2 from the line
100-97 Bos, 1:24 left, Robinson misses three pointer
101-97 Bos, 0:53 left, Butler makes layup and gets fouled, makes 1-1 from the line
101-100 Bos, 0:21.2 left, Robinson misses three pointer
102-100 Bos, 0.3.0 left, Butler fouled, makes 3-3 from the line
So in their last nine possessions:
- Butler got fouled five times and went 8-10 from the line
- Miami made three field goals (Vincent's layup, Butler's layup, and Butler's stepback three)
- Robinson missed two WIDE OPEN three pointers
Individually, Butler had the ball six times in the last nine possessions:
- one made three pointer (3 points)
- one made layup plus the foul (3 points)
- refs called fouls the other four times, and he made 7-9 from the line on those (7 points)
Butler, thus, scored 13 points on six possessions, never failing to either put the ball in the basket or getting to the line. Every time the Celtics breathed on him down the stretch he got the whistle. Every time. No exceptions.
98-88 Bos, 3:51 left, Butler fouled, makes 2-2 from the line
98-90 Bos, 3:25 left, Butler fouled, makes 1-2 from the line
100-91 Bos, 2:44 left, Vincent makes driving layup
100-93 Bos, 2:04 left, Butler makes 24 foot stepback three pointer
100-96 Bos, 1:31 left, Butler fouled, makes 1-2 from the line
100-97 Bos, 1:24 left, Robinson misses three pointer
101-97 Bos, 0:53 left, Butler makes layup and gets fouled, makes 1-1 from the line
101-100 Bos, 0:21.2 left, Robinson misses three pointer
102-100 Bos, 0.3.0 left, Butler fouled, makes 3-3 from the line
So in their last nine possessions:
- Butler got fouled five times and went 8-10 from the line
- Miami made three field goals (Vincent's layup, Butler's layup, and Butler's stepback three)
- Robinson missed two WIDE OPEN three pointers
Individually, Butler had the ball six times in the last nine possessions:
- one made three pointer (3 points)
- one made layup plus the foul (3 points)
- refs called fouls the other four times, and he made 7-9 from the line on those (7 points)
Butler, thus, scored 13 points on six possessions, never failing to either put the ball in the basket or getting to the line. Every time the Celtics breathed on him down the stretch he got the whistle. Every time. No exceptions.
If the loss of control isn’t due to another players touch that’s definitely still a double dribble. You don’t get to put two hands on the ball and start dribbling again just because you fumbled the ball a bit.
They can argue that he didn't dribble again, that the last time the ball hit the floor was due simply to him losing control, the ball hitting the floor, and him picking it up again. That happens with some regularity and they never call it. I mean, they also carry the ball every time too and it never gets called.
Oh wait.
It is especially pronounced with this Celtics team. They are very talented but inconsistent. The expectations are so high that every loss is spun as their choke and every win is just too close or as it should be.
If they are better than the Heat it’s not by very much. It doesn’t require chokes to lose games to this team. If they play the series 100 times, the the Cs are only winning 60-65 of them, and it’s not because they choke 40% of the time.
I'll just note that Spoelstra sitting Butler and Jimmy for the 4thQ in Game 5 did not seem to rejuvenate them last night. Maybe they would have been worse if they played an extra 6 minutes, but I find that hard to believe. And now they've played an additional 45+ minutes each.
Also playing Robinson the whole 4th instead of Strus was questionable. Yeah he was your only offense but I feel like Strus is better defensively (last play aside) and can hit open 3s just as well if not better. Basically Strus played the whole 3rd and Robinson played the whole 4th, don't get it.
Coaching is hard but if Mazzulla gets killed for his decisions we should point out when the supposed genius on the other side doesn't push the right buttons.
Also playing Robinson the whole 4th instead of Strus was questionable. Yeah he was your only offense but I feel like Strus is better defensively (last play aside) and can hit open 3s just as well if not better. Basically Strus played the whole 3rd and Robinson played the whole 4th, don't get it.
Coaching is hard but if Mazzulla gets killed for his decisions we should point out when the supposed genius on the other side doesn't push the right buttons.
That doesn’t happen with regularity after a player has put two hands on the ball and a defender hasn’t intervened.
I thought the officiating in this game was terrible in this respect: during the first quarter, the officials allowed the game to be very physical and were not calling much either way. It seemed like this was just going to be a "let em' play" kind of game. But late in the half, as Miami made a closing run, the officials seemed to remember that they has whistles and start calling a bunch of ticky tack shit.
Yeah the carry was INSANE to call in that situation with less than 9 minutes left and the Heat coming back with the fans starting to go nuts. Call it in the first half to give a guy a warning that he's pushing things, fine. Honestly lots of credit to the Cs for not losing their composure there after Robinson hit the 3 to get within 1.
It was very much like the Joey Crawford Game 7, except he waited for the 4th quarter. Just be consistent.
Agree. Really, neither team could execute at all against the other's D down the stretch. For all the handwringing about the C's crunch time execution, it was basically stalemate out there. Except that the refs suddenly started granting Butler the "lurch into people" trips to the FT line. That— plus an uncalled double-dribble— nearly decided the series on the lamest of possible terms.
In addition to fewer points, if butler doesn’t get all those calls the celts have a chance to run a bit off a rebound with butler on the ground. Would’ve likely changed a few of their offensive possessions
I can't imagine being a Heat fan right now. All 30 of them must be quite confused.
Miami has exceeded expectations by such a massive margin that it seems unfair that "utter disappointment" should still be in the mix of possible outcomes. And yet, here they are, with one game separating them from a legacy of "most improbable Finals run ever" or "biggest choke job in league history".
Miami has exceeded expectations by such a massive margin that it seems unfair that "utter disappointment" should still be in the mix of possible outcomes. And yet, here they are, with one game separating them from a legacy of "most improbable Finals run ever" or "biggest choke job in league history".
I unironically really hope it's Foster for game 7. I've been impressed with him and his crew recently, and I definitely cannot say the same for Zarba.
Last nights 20% from 3 was a season-low
they better shoot better.the defense came up huge.
It happens enough, and I've never seen it called in the NBA.
That being said, *I* think it *was* a double dribble, and I think ruling it a fumble (and not a dribble) would have been generous to Butler. Defendable, but generous.
I'm saying, after being up 10 with just a few minutes to go, this would have been one of the worst losses in team history, especially given the way it went down, with Butler getting all those calls late. But thankfully he missed two of those free throws, and thankfully Robinson missed two wide open threes, and thankfully Derrick White made the play of his life. And it goes down as one of the greatest Celtic wins ever (hyperbole? maybe...but I don't think so).
So fucking wild to see it written out. I thought the Heat defended the 3 better, but not 7-35 better. And the Celtics defended it worse, but not 14-30 worse.Last nights 20% from 3 was a season-low
the defense came up huge.
View: https://twitter.com/michaelvpina/status/1662661028956590082?s=46
Regarding the Celtics offense at the end of the game, here are the Celtics plays after they went up 98-88 with 4:56 left:
- Tatum missed a 3 with about 7 seconds left on the 24 while being guarded by Butler. Not really a bad shot at the time, although he probably could have passed it to White in the corner. Still, Brown's effort got him an offensive board.
- After the ensuing timeout, Smart took a difficult 3 instead of passing it to Brown. Not a fan of that play.
- Celtics up 98-90. Brown tried to feed Williams for a play at the rim, but the pass wasn't perfect and Williams had to come down first before attempting a shot from 5' out. Again, not a bad possession overall.
- Celtics up 98-90. White misses a midrange as the C's had difficult with the zone in that possession. But Tatum was fouled on the rebound and the Celtics still got 2 points.
- Celtics up 100-93. Tatum makes a perfect pass to Horford for what should have been an easy basket, but Al mishandles the ball and has to make a more difficult shot that misses.
- Celtics up 100-96. Tatum misses a drive that he was making all first half. Another case where the right play just didn't yield the desired result.
- Celtics up 100-97. Tatum attempts an open catch-and-shoot 3 that misses. But Brown's effort on the boards earns him 2 free throws, and to be honest a bit of ball luck Brown's should would have been an and-1. Then Brown misses the 2nd free throw so instead of 3 they get 1.
- Celtics up 101-100. Tatum gets by Butler but is bothered by Bam and misses both shots. Not a great possession.
- Celtics up 101-100. Heat are forced to foul Smart, who misses a big free throw. Doesn't really count as a "possession" in my book.
So there were 7 possessions and essentially 9 real chances that only netted them 3 points. Of the 9 chances, the Celtics probably got the play they wanted on 6. Of those 6, we had 3 missed shots by Tatum where at least 1 or 2 could have been expected to go in, a missed shot by Brown when he was fouled, and 2 mishandled passes that resulted in lower percentage shots. And one of the bad possessions ended up with Tatum shooting free throws.
So I don't really buy the argument that the Celtics "choked" down the stretch. There was indeed some shot luck that went against them; that Brown shot essentially rimmed out. There was admittedly one bad possession at a critical time with the Celtics clinging to the 1 point lead, but missing 2 free throws during that stretch was probably more critical to the end game situation.
- Tatum missed a 3 with about 7 seconds left on the 24 while being guarded by Butler. Not really a bad shot at the time, although he probably could have passed it to White in the corner. Still, Brown's effort got him an offensive board.
- After the ensuing timeout, Smart took a difficult 3 instead of passing it to Brown. Not a fan of that play.
- Celtics up 98-90. Brown tried to feed Williams for a play at the rim, but the pass wasn't perfect and Williams had to come down first before attempting a shot from 5' out. Again, not a bad possession overall.
- Celtics up 98-90. White misses a midrange as the C's had difficult with the zone in that possession. But Tatum was fouled on the rebound and the Celtics still got 2 points.
- Celtics up 100-93. Tatum makes a perfect pass to Horford for what should have been an easy basket, but Al mishandles the ball and has to make a more difficult shot that misses.
- Celtics up 100-96. Tatum misses a drive that he was making all first half. Another case where the right play just didn't yield the desired result.
- Celtics up 100-97. Tatum attempts an open catch-and-shoot 3 that misses. But Brown's effort on the boards earns him 2 free throws, and to be honest a bit of ball luck Brown's should would have been an and-1. Then Brown misses the 2nd free throw so instead of 3 they get 1.
- Celtics up 101-100. Tatum gets by Butler but is bothered by Bam and misses both shots. Not a great possession.
- Celtics up 101-100. Heat are forced to foul Smart, who misses a big free throw. Doesn't really count as a "possession" in my book.
So there were 7 possessions and essentially 9 real chances that only netted them 3 points. Of the 9 chances, the Celtics probably got the play they wanted on 6. Of those 6, we had 3 missed shots by Tatum where at least 1 or 2 could have been expected to go in, a missed shot by Brown when he was fouled, and 2 mishandled passes that resulted in lower percentage shots. And one of the bad possessions ended up with Tatum shooting free throws.
So I don't really buy the argument that the Celtics "choked" down the stretch. There was indeed some shot luck that went against them; that Brown shot essentially rimmed out. There was admittedly one bad possession at a critical time with the Celtics clinging to the 1 point lead, but missing 2 free throws during that stretch was probably more critical to the end game situation.
sorry - phone copied too much text , and I see a later post responded all ready. I need coffee
Good summary. I think a lot of us don't like to admit how much luck plays into our subsequent perceptions of events.
This wasn't Jaylen/Tatum isoball, or even the Smart 3s last year. NBA basketball is hard, and shit goes wrong sometimes.
Just ask Miami.
Tatum passing the ball to Smart after rebounding the Robinson miss with 18 seconds left up 1 was the right play most of the time, but I would prefer Tatum hold onto the ball in that situation in the future. I want him at the line to secure the win.
He dribbled one of two more times to get to the corner after he fumbled it …. It was the only reason he was able to get the shot off
the nba doesn’t call travels.. at least usually,, I think the Celts were called for at least three last night? Double dribbles aren’t usually just let go like that.
I know it’s afterglow but I still love this.
Mine too, I want more please, over and over again.
It really should be impossible to win an NBA game, in the modern era, shooting 20% from 3, while your opponent shoots 47%.
I'm re-watching to figure out how (besides Jimmy/Bam missing everything for 3.5 Quarters)
My knee-jerk reaction is DEFENSE, but they still figured out how to get 104pts in regulation
It definitely was a double dribble by every definition.. they simply don’t let that go with regularity,0
Not true. He dribbled and the ball bounced up and hit both his hands and then it hit the floor one more time before he went up for the shot and got fouled. And that one last time it hit the floor, it could be argued, it did so because he lost control. I’m sure that’s how the ref would have explained not calling it a double dribble.
Miami got to 104 because Jimmy Butler got to the line every trip down the court in the last 3.5 minutes.
I heard Spoelstra say something along the lines that the ball could only bounce just that way for them to lose.
But he neglects that Tatum was also there. They crashed the board as soon as Smart took the shot.
Preparedness meets opportunity and all that jazz.
Its a good thing Miami didn't get to 104
The Celtics going 0-6 after being up 10pts is pretty obvious. You can't go ISO/passive against a ZONE, which Spoelstra knows and does against Boston every time we get a lead. People think you can just shoot 3s over a ZONE with out penetration and that's patently false (you & I know this after watching Cuse for decades)
Yeah.. Miami had basically zero offense other than getting every whistle for most of the fourth quarter.. and it’s not like any of them were obvious fouls.. other than the three.. most of the fouls Butler created most of the contact.. including the three.
it’s been decades of this… where an opponent gets an ungodly whistle.. LeBron, Wade, Gianni’s, Butler, Harden ..even the lakers in the finals.. with Boston basically having Tatum who gets anywhere close to that kind of whistle?
Great piece on how the team has come together since falling behind 0-3. Makes this team seem easy to root for (even if they're tough on my heart):
https://theathletic.com/4558277/2023/05/28/celtics-al-horford-game-6-heat-comeback/
https://theathletic.com/4558277/2023/05/28/celtics-al-horford-game-6-heat-comeback/