Celtics vs. Bucks, Round 2 Discussion

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The Bucks adjust more during the course of a game than most anyone. To assume they will change nothing following a big loss is setting yourself up for failure. If I’m Ime (that sounds funny) I’d be preparing for the Bucks to force Jaylen out of his comfort zone, run a second defender at him off the dribble forcing him to pass the ball which is a hole in his game. I’d look for them to run the offense more through Lopez at the top of the circle forcing a big outside of the paint and to run more action with Holiday. I’m sure there are other things he’ll look to do that are above my pay grade as well.

We all saw that MIL had some late success using Giannis as a screener. I think that's where Coach Bud starts.

However, MIL really misses Middleton's shot creation. From what I understand, Middleton gets the ball a lot when the shot clock is winding down and I heard on a podcast that a good portion of his shots are unassisted. MIL is having a super hard time scoring in half-court because other than Giannis and sometimes Jrue (he's talented but he's as streaky as Marcus), they don't have guys who can beat good defenders - which the Cs happen to have a lot of - one-on-one.

It's pretty amazing that MIL's primary role players - Portis, Lopez, Matthews, Allen, Connaughton, and Carter played 150+ minutes and only took 6 3P attempts. I'd assume that is the lowest attempts for those guys in a game this year. The only way MIL wins when that happens is if Giannis goes for 50+. Which is possible (it probably means that the Cs starting front court has fouled out and Giannis is hitting his free throws) but not likely given the way the Cs play defense and how much energy Giannis would have to expend trying to that many shots.

MIL has to figure out how to get its role players some shots but they are very guardable if Giannis isn't creating for them.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

We all saw that MIL had some late success using Giannis as a screener. I think that's where Coach Bud starts.

However, MIL really misses Middleton's shot creation. From what I understand, Middleton gets the ball a lot when the shot clock is winding down and I heard on a podcast that a good portion of his shots are unassisted. MIL is having a super hard time scoring in half-court because other than Giannis and sometimes Jrue (he's talented but he's as streaky as Marcus), they don't have guys who can beat good defenders - which the Cs happen to have a lot of - one-on-one.

It's pretty amazing that MIL's primary role players - Portis, Lopez, Matthews, Allen, Connaughton, and Carter played 150+ minutes and only took 6 3P attempts. I'd assume that is the lowest attempts for those guys in a game this year. The only way MIL wins when that happens is if Giannis goes for 50+. Which is possible (it probably means that the Cs starting front court has fouled out and Giannis is hitting his free throws) but not likely given the way the Cs play defense and how much energy Giannis would have to expend trying to that many shots.

MIL has to figure out how to get its role players some shots but they are very guardable if Giannis isn't creating for them.

A couple hours ago I began writing a long post about how much the Bucks rely on Middleton in their halfcourt offense then halfway through x’d out of it. They miss him a ton.

 

[Red Averages]

Is there anything the Bucks can change in their lineup to reduce the Celtics ability to get as many 3s? Go smaller? Get more shooters of their own on the court? Seems like the Celtics have a clear half court advantage. I’m trying to figure out how they could change something in their personal. Ime sitting out Theis and playing Grant more led to some huge benefits for the Celtics.

 

[lars10]

Is there anything the Bucks can change in their lineup to reduce the Celtics ability to get as many 3s? Go smaller? Get more shooters of their own on the court? Seems like the Celtics have a clear half court advantage. I’m trying to figure out how they could change something in their personal. Ime sitting out Theis led to some huge benefits for the Celtics.

Aren't their main shooters Allen and Connaughton? Do they really want to play those two more?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Is there anything the Bucks can change in their lineup to reduce the Celtics ability to get as many 3s? Go smaller? Get more shooters of their own on the court? Seems like the Celtics have a clear half court advantage. I’m trying to figure out how they could change something in their personal. Ime sitting out Theis and playing Grant more led to some huge benefits for the Celtics.

Basically the option would be more Connaughton, maybe some George Hill when he's healthy, but neither of those guys really does much.

I expect they'll just try to score more efficiently, be more aggressive going for turnovers too.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Is there anything the Bucks can change in their lineup to reduce the Celtics ability to get as many 3s? Go smaller? Get more shooters of their own on the court? Seems like the Celtics have a clear half court advantage. I’m trying to figure out how they could change something in their personal. Ime sitting out Theis and playing Grant more led to some huge benefits for the Celtics.

I’m not sure I understand this question. Coach Bud’s system is designed to force opponents to shoot 3-pointers……not to shoot fewer of them. I think the Bucks have led the league in 3-ptFGA allowed each year he’s been there which is consistent with his time in Atlanta. His teams also foul less than nearly all teams and for that reason give up among the fewest FT’s.

 

[benhogan]

Is there anything the Bucks can change in their lineup to reduce the Celtics ability to get as many 3s? Go smaller? Get more shooters of their own on the court? Seems like the Celtics have a clear half court advantage. I’m trying to figure out how they could change something in their personal. Ime sitting out Theis and playing Grant more led to some huge benefits for the Celtics.

playing Grant more always leads to huge benefits, especially when it increases his 3PA

 

[cardiacs]

Is there anything the Bucks can change in their lineup to reduce the Celtics ability to get as many 3s? Go smaller? Get more shooters of their own on the court? Seems like the Celtics have a clear half court advantage. I’m trying to figure out how they could change something in their personal. Ime sitting out Theis and playing Grant more led to some huge benefits for the Celtics.

I think the Celtics just need to regress to the mean a bit - I don't think their 3pt% is going to stay as high all series long. If it does, the Bucks' prospects of winning this series are low(er).

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I’m not sure I understand this question. Coach Bud’s system is designed to force opponents to shoot 3-pointers……not to shoot fewer of them. I think the Bucks have led the league in 3-ptFGA allowed each year he’s been there which is consistent with his time in Atlanta. His teams also foul less than nearly all teams and for that reason give up among the fewest FT’s.

Yeah, I think only adjustment Bucks will seek is to up the number of turnovers and thus fast break points they get - which is not about scheme but reminding players to try to get deflections and such. While Celts 3Pt% is the number one stat to look at, Bucks fast break points is likely number two.

Bucks bet that other teams can't hit enough threes has looked pretty good overall last couple years. That doesn't mean it'll work this series but I do not think they'll change their scheme (Bud is the polar opposite of a Nurse or Spoelstra in terms of adjustments) and they don't really have the players to change it a ton even if they wanted to.

 

[Red Averages]

Bucks bet that other teams can't hit enough threes has looked pretty good overall last couple years. That doesn't mean it'll work this series but I do not think they'll change their scheme (Bud is the polar opposite of a Nurse or Spoelstra in terms of adjustments) and they don't really have the players to change it a ton even if they wanted to.

This was what I was getting at. It's not clear to me what they can do for lineup changes. Hoping to get turnovers seems like... not a plan? Maybe a good way to pick up some ticky tac fouls though. Playing "more efficient offense" is a nice goal, but I haven't seen many suggestions for how they put that into place. It seems like P&Rs with Giannis, trying to isolate Jaylen or Robert Williams would make a lot of sense given their inability to defend Giannis. Then again, I suspect we're all comfortable letting Giannis shoot from far, so they can sag on the P&R to cheat.

Should be an interesting game 3. I think the afternoon game favors the visiting team on the margin as it reduces some of the crowd/homecourt advantages. I haven't seen any data to support that though.

 

[m0ckduck]

Yeah, I think only adjustment Bucks will seek is to up the number of turnovers and thus fast break points they get - which is not about scheme but reminding players to try to get deflections and such. While Celts 3Pt% is the number one stat to look at, Bucks fast break points is likely number two.

I didn't get to watch G2 (1:30am local tipoff) and the highlights don't yield this kind of info...

What adjustments did the Celtics make to mitigate the Bucks ball pressure from G1? I remember Smart and White being hounded full court by Holiday, the C's taking a long time to get into their sets, and Ime saying that there were adjustments he planned to make to put the guards in better position. I was super worried about this heading into G2 without Smart, but it seems to have been nullified by the C's, judging from the boxscore. Depending on what the C's actually did, is there some counter-adjustment for Bud to this adjustment?

 

[Red Averages]

I noticed a lot of picks being set at mid court to assist the ball handler. It also wasn’t as effective because once the Celtics got it over midcourt, with a pick, you already have some court spacing and it makes it easier to have a fluid half court offense. Whereas if one person is pressing and 4 Bucks are sitting in the paint and the Celtics are standing around watching it becomes quite suffocating.

 

[Red Right Ankle]

I noticed a lot of picks being set at mid court to assist the ball handler. It also wasn’t as effective because once the Celtics got it over midcourt, with a pick, you already have some court spacing and it makes it easier to have a fluid half court offense. Whereas if one person is pressing and 4 Bucks are sitting in the paint and the Celtics are standing around watching it becomes quite suffocating.

Someone also noted that the Cs would more frequently have Al or Grant take the ball out rather than wait and give it to one of the usual ballhandlers, especially when they rebounded it in good position to do so.

 

[Saints Rest]

We all saw that MIL had some late success using Giannis as a screener. I think that's where Coach Bud starts.

However, MIL really misses Middleton's shot creation. From what I understand, Middleton gets the ball a lot when the shot clock is winding down and I heard on a podcast that a good portion of his shots are unassisted. MIL is having a super hard time scoring in half-court because other than Giannis and sometimes Jrue (he's talented but he's as streaky as Marcus), they don't have guys who can beat good defenders - which the Cs happen to have a lot of - one-on-one.

It's pretty amazing that MIL's primary role players - Portis, Lopez, Matthews, Allen, Connaughton, and Carter played 150+ minutes and only took 6 3P attempts. I'd assume that is the lowest attempts for those guys in a game this year. The only way MIL wins when that happens is if Giannis goes for 50+. Which is possible (it probably means that the Cs starting front court has fouled out and Giannis is hitting his free throws) but not likely given the way the Cs play defense and how much energy Giannis would have to expend trying to that many shots.

MIL has to figure out how to get its role players some shots but they are very guardable if Giannis isn't creating for them.

Maybe this quote from Eric Nets (Bucks beat writer) in The Athletic will help make your point: "Middleton was one of 17 NBA players to average at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists per game. Only 44 percent of his makes were assisted this season, which means not only was he putting up big numbers, he was the one creating the shots."

 

[uk_sox_fan]

I'm enjoying these playoffs immensely as I don't get to see too many games over here during the regular season. One question for those of you far more familiar with the team and Ime's coaching strategy - why has Theis been completely left for dead in this series? I would think that with the short bench and (almost) critical foul trouble that was gathering steam in the 2nd half he'd have been a useful body to throw in the mix, but we haven't seen him at all since being whistled for a charge in the early 2nd qtr of G1. Is it the way the refs are calling things that he's just too easy a target for Giannis to barrel into and get to the line?

 

[chilidawg]

I'm enjoying these playoffs immensely as I don't get to see too many games over here during the regular season. One question for those of you far more familiar with the team and Ime's coaching strategy - why has Theis been completely left for dead in this series? I would think that with the short bench and (almost) critical foul trouble that was gathering steam in the 2nd half he'd have been a useful body to throw in the mix, but we haven't seen him at all since being whistled for a charge in the early 2nd qtr of G1. Is it the way the refs are calling things that he's just too easy a target for Giannis to barrel into and get to the line?

I think it's mostly that Grant and Horford have been so effective.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I think it's mostly that Grant and Horford have been so effective.

Defensively, yes. But also, their shooting. I think that Theis's minutes are going to Rob, and it'll stay that way barring injury/foul trouble.

 

[benhogan]

I'm enjoying these playoffs immensely as I don't get to see too many games over here during the regular season. One question for those of you far more familiar with the team and Ime's coaching strategy - why has Theis been completely left for dead in this series? I would think that with the short bench and (almost) critical foul trouble that was gathering steam in the 2nd half he'd have been a useful body to throw in the mix, but we haven't seen him at all since being whistled for a charge in the early 2nd qtr of G1. Is it the way the refs are calling things that he's just too easy a target for Giannis to barrel into and get to the line?

Game 2 was a must-win and IME shortened the bench.

Grant/Horford were ridiculously effective against Giannis in the 1st half, there was zero chance IME was going away from that in the 2nd half.

Theis has a role to play here, the BUCKs will be aggressively hunting for Grant/Horford fouls. Coach Bud will bank on the refs giving Giannis a favorable whistle to open the game

 

[lovegtm]

TL is back, and GW can guard Giannis. Ime is looking for as much shooting as possible, particularly against a team that can't/doesn't hunt PP. Theis is a fine player, and I'm on team Theis, but he's strictly dominated right now by other options, even with a shorter rotation.

 

[DourDoerr]

One play I liked seeing was along the left baseline when the Bucks sagged off TL - and stayed sagged - and he nonchalantly hit the 10 footer. He seems very at ease with this shot and at the same range in the paint too and I'd expect it to be more of a weapon next season. Add in his ability to hit cutters from the nail and he's going to force the D to make some uncomfortable decisions soon - if not already.

I will say he looked gassed before the million hour reviews started. He has to do a lot on offense, and all that contact wears on him too, and on D he has to fly all over the place helping everyone, closing out, etc.

GA looked totally spent on the play late in the game where he scored and then committed a delay of game as he carried the ball up court. He's carrying a huge load and those drives to the bucket take up an enormous amount of energy and wear and tear - especially with the C's so good at taking the charge. He's getting the calls currently, but at a big price. Those guard screens on O are a lifeline for him and the Bucks' halfcourt game and it'll be very interesting to see how the C's counter in Game 3.

.

 

[tims4wins]

Marcus optimistic for game 3

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33861017/boston-celtics-marcus-smart-sees-strong-likelihood-playing-game-3-vs-milwaukee-bucks

 

[jablo1312]

One play I liked seeing was along the left baseline when the Bucks sagged off TL - and stayed sagged - and he nonchalantly hit the 10 footer. He seems very at ease with this shot and at the same range in the paint too and I'd expect it to be more of a weapon next season. Add in his ability to hit cutters from the nail and he's going to force the D to make some uncomfortable decisions soon - if not already.

Thing I really liked about this was him following his shot (even though it went in). Creating as many second chance opportunities as reasonably possible, if you're going to be shooting mostly jumpers, is critical.

 

[benhogan]

GA looked totally spent on the play late in the game where he scored and then committed a delay of game as he carried the ball up court. He's carrying a huge load and those drives to the bucket take up an enormous amount of energy and wear and tear - especially with the C's so good at taking the charge. He's getting the calls currently, but at a big price. Those guard screens on O are a lifeline for him and the Bucks' halfcourt game and it'll be very interesting to see how the C's counter in Game 3.

Giannis looked defeated at that moment, the man really needs Middleton to take some of the halfcourt initiation load off his hands

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'm enjoying these playoffs immensely as I don't get to see too many games over here during the regular season. One question for those of you far more familiar with the team and Ime's coaching strategy - why has Theis been completely left for dead in this series? I would think that with the short bench and (almost) critical foul trouble that was gathering steam in the 2nd half he'd have been a useful body to throw in the mix, but we haven't seen him at all since being whistled for a charge in the early 2nd qtr of G1. Is it the way the refs are calling things that he's just too easy a target for Giannis to barrel into and get to the line?

I don't have a subscription to the Athletic right now but I presume this article - https://theathletic.com/3294629/2022/05/05/celtics-simple-adjustment-how-setting-better-screens-helped-sink-bucks-film-breakdown/?amp=1 - has some of the information you're looking for.

BOS did move its picks up a bit to give the ball handler a bit more room and spread out MIL. But to me, the biggest difference was that BOS got the ball moving instead of trying to finish against 2 or 3 big guys. Versus MIL, beating pressure and moving the ball is better than beating the pressure and going to the rim. If you look a lot of the plays embedded in this Ringer article - https://www.theringer.com/2022/5/4/23056617/celtics-bucks-nba-playoffs - you will see that is what BOS did.

 

[NomarsFool]

One thing I noticed while watching the Bucks series is that the basketball "play" of slowly dribbling towards the hoop while progressively pushing your opponent back with shove after shove or shoulder after shoulder is boring basketball. So, basically, Giannis in the half-court. Giannis in transition, while I agree involves a lot of charges, it's an entertaining play. And I'm generally not much of a fan of iso ball at all - but an iso play that involves the possibility of a quick drive, or some kind of jump shot is significantly more entertaining than Giannis' half-court game.

 

[128]

This is a hell of a break between games, isn't it? Not that I'm complaining, with Marcus Smart on the mend.

 

[RorschachsMask]

On/off through the six games, per CTG. Obviously SSS, but it’s the playoffs so of course it will be.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Based on that data, its quite clear that Udoka is leaving food on the table by not using Kornet and Nesmith more.

 

[tims4wins]

How meaningful are those numbers given the different opponent? Like for instance Theis was valuable vs the Nets but feels borderline unplayable vs the Bucks unless it’s just to throw fouls at GA

 

[RorschachsMask]

How meaningful are those numbers given the different opponent? Like for instance Theis was valuable vs the Nets but feels borderline unplayable vs the Bucks unless it’s just to throw fouls at GA

Not very valuable team to team, just a small snapshot.

 

[joe dokes]

This is a hell of a break between games, isn't it? Not that I'm complaining, with Marcus Smart on the mend.

There are exactly zero games tonight. How does the NBA let that happen?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Is there anything the Bucks can change in their lineup to reduce the Celtics ability to get as many 3s? Go smaller? Get more shooters of their own on the court? Seems like the Celtics have a clear half court advantage. I’m trying to figure out how they could change something in their personal. Ime sitting out Theis and playing Grant more led to some huge benefits for the Celtics.

The only thing the Bucks can do to stop the 3 point attempts is bench Lopez. He is never switching out and guarding the 3 point line, and if he does it, he's terrible at it. Giannis isn't a great perimeter defender either. Both are amazing defenders in the paint, but they stay there, so there isn't much help across the 3 point line for the rest of their defense when they get picked. That's why the Bucks give up so many corner 3's. If you set a PNR at the top, you take 2 of their defenders, sometimes 3 if it's Tatum with the ball, and you have Giannis and Lopez down low, so you have the C's just passing it around the horn, or inside outside until they get the open 3.

This is what makes the C's defense so good, because Al/TL/Grant can all defend the perimeter and down low (not to mention JB and Tatum and Smart). Other than TL, who they basically are allowing to play free safety, there's no easy shots on the perimeter, and not many easy ones once you get passed that perimeter defense.

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/eric_nehm/status/1522297340073238530

 

[ehaz]

yeah he's not coming back.

 

[NomarsFool]

I have been surprised to see Giannis picking up the ball handler just over midcourt. Does he do that a lot? Seems like a high risk (foul trouble) low reward (seems like low likelihood of a steal) play to make.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I have been surprised to see Giannis picking up the ball handler just over midcourt. Does he do that a lot? Seems like a high risk (foul trouble) low reward (seems like low likelihood of a steal) play to make.

It's got to be him or Jrue... Portis, Connaghton, Lopez, Allen all get blown by Giannis is so big he can do it without getting in trouble, and he doesn't reach. Plus it sets him up to be the point man on the break if they get the turnover

 

[DourDoerr]

Thing I really liked about this was him following his shot (even though it went in). Creating as many second chance opportunities as reasonably possible, if you're going to be shooting mostly jumpers, is critical.

Good point and I completely agree. Ups the pressure on the D and TL is a safe bet to win his share of putbacks.

 

[benhogan]

I have been surprised to see Giannis picking up the ball handler just over midcourt. Does he do that a lot? Seems like a high risk (foul trouble) low reward (seems like low likelihood of a steal) play to make.

Bucks can only win this series if they get live TOs and turn them into transition points. Giannis leads their transition offense, so expect MIL to only increase the on-ball pressure and run, run, run at any chance

The Celtic's defense will clamp down on a Middleton-less Bucks offense in the halfcourt

 

[Cellar-Door]

Lowe Post today with Kevin O'Connor had some nice coverage of what is going on. It was good. One stat they had that was great:

White and Pritchard have played only 2 minutes together when Giannis and Jrue are both on the floor. Some smart coaching, that pair can get PP and White in PnR and hurt them, so they avoid it, but when you have an Allen or Carter on the court instead you can deal with that

 

[chilidawg]

On/off through the six games, per CTG. Obviously SSS, but it’s the playoffs so of course it will be.

View attachment 51404

For as good as Grant has looked to the eye, +/- numbers just don't look good for him. Regular season was the same.

 

[Jakarta]

For as good as Grant has looked to the eye, +/- numbers just don't look good for him. Regular season was the same.

Grant and Tatum have a plus 3.9 rating in their 148 minutes together in the playoffs. That means in Grant’s remaining 35 minutes without Tatum, they have gotten smoked. Not sure how to find the net rating for those minutes, but it’s such a small sample size that it’s not very meaningful.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

This is a hell of a break between games, isn't it? Not that I'm complaining, with Marcus Smart on the mend.

Let’s not forget Middleton is on the mend as well. He could be available by the end of the series.

 

[benhogan]

Grant and Tatum have a plus 3.9 rating in their 148 minutes together in the playoffs. That means in Grant’s remaining 35 minutes without Tatum, they have gotten smoked. Not sure how to find the net rating for those minutes, but it’s such a small sample size that it’s not very meaningful.

regular season was the same

in fact, Grant + JayLord + Smart adv off/def rating was obscenely good (like better than the starting 5)

as has been stated a million times before, +/- over a SSS (6 games) won't tell us a whole lot

 

[benhogan]

Lowe Post today with Kevin O'Connor had some nice coverage of what is going on. It was good. One stat they had that was great:

White and Pritchard have played only 2 minutes together when Giannis and Jrue are both on the floor. Some smart coaching, that pair can get PP and White in PnR and hurt them, so they avoid it, but when you have an Allen or Carter on the court instead you can deal with that

You may be reading more into that than exists. Game 2 there was no Smart so PP/White had to split ball-handling duties. Game 1 PP was brought in early and wasn't effective. Strangely MIL hasn't really been hunting matchups in the halfcourt, probably see that change going forward

 

[128]

Let’s not forget Middleton is on the mend as well. He could be available by the end of the series.

Yeah, I'm expecting him back for Game 6, if not sooner.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Won't matter if C's win in 5... Just sayin'

 

[Cellar-Door]

You may be reading more into that than exists. Game 2 there was no Smart so PP/White had to split ball-handling duties. Game 1 PP was brought in early and wasn't effective. Strangely MIL hasn't really been hunting matchups in the halfcourt, probably see that change going forward

Maybe Lowe is reading too much, but it sure seems like it's intentional, they've played a decent amount of minutes together (17 minutes over 2 games) and it definitely looks like they are avoiding that matchup based on play by play.

 

[ColonelMustard]

This team is so much damn fun. If you haven't already, check out this video of Grant v Tatum in warm-ups.

 

[Auger34]

Let’s not forget Middleton is on the mend as well. He could be available by the end of the series.

Based on that “update” from Milwaukee, I will be completely stunned if Middleton gets on the court this series

 

[benhogan]

Maybe Lowe is reading too much, but it sure seems like it's intentional, they've played a decent amount of minutes together (17 minutes over 2 games) and it definitely looks like they are avoiding that matchup based on play by play.

The Celtics looking to avoid playing their #7 & #8 players (2nd & 3rd string PGs) in the rotation together, versus a team that already plays extremely BIG + against the Bucks #1 & #2 rotational players, in the playoffs where rotations are shortened, seems rather obvious/natural

3-days off between games and these guys are searching for talking points