The one matchup that's been bad for Grant has been Portis. A couple times he's taken him into the mid post and just shot over him (did the same to Jaylen). Need more length against Bobby, who's been a solid #3 for the Bucks.
Celtics vs. Bucks, Round 2 Discussion
- Thread starter tims4wins
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But so many of the 3s were wide open looks. The Celts are going to hit those at a decent %. It's a designed strategy by Milwaukee. I think the Celts are good enough for it to pay off 4 times in 7 games.
Portis just doesn't miss in the lane. Maybe Tatum or TL's length would bother him
I think that you live with a few Portis baskets. Milwaukee isn't going to take the ball out of Giannis's hands and run their offense through the post with Crazy Bob. If they do, then maybe we worry about it.
agreed, you live with Krazee Eyez Killa cloggin the lane
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvUKjcKzWQY
The bigger thing about the 3pt difference wasn't that Milwaukee missed their 3s but that they only took 18 of them (and 3 were in the last 3 minutes) compared to 34 in game 1. This was because they didn't double Giannis and he therefore didn't pass to the perimeter. It was almost like they were baiting Giannis into taking on Grant / Al and he kept taking the bait.
Allen and Connaughton can't create their own shots and they went from 5-6 from 3 in the first half game 1 to 1-2.
That adjustment changed everything. I thought the defense was pretty decent game 1, but if you can keep the ball in Giannis' hands, AND play the kind of defense that Al and Grant did, you're going to hold the Bucks down like they did in the first half more often than not.
Allen and Connaughton can't create their own shots and they went from 5-6 from 3 in the first half game 1 to 1-2.
That adjustment changed everything. I thought the defense was pretty decent game 1, but if you can keep the ball in Giannis' hands, AND play the kind of defense that Al and Grant did, you're going to hold the Bucks down like they did in the first half more often than not.
That's kind of how it goes though. You make your shots, you win. You don't, you lose. Especially when the Celts are getting up almost 100 threes these past 2 games.
It is. This is one matchup where having Pritchard on the floor for long stretches isn’t going to hurt us. He’s a solid matchup against Allen who isn’t going to out-length, out-athlete size, and out-power him to where it would be a Bucks advantage to go that route. The Bucks also don’t utilize clock to hunt matchups as much as other teams as Giannis iso’s can keep Pritchard off the ball where he can be scrappy without being exposed.
It's a big deal that he's playable against the Bucks, because they need him to punish the Bucks paint-packing.
If I'm Bud, I'm working to get Giannis and Jrue on either PP or White (especially PP) earlier in the clock. Shouldn't be that hard of an adjustment to make. Until they do that though, agreed that PP probably isn't going to kill us.
Was kinda funny watching Allen trying to walk up on PP like a badass. When my son was playing ball, I pulled our 10th player from a game that we were up like a million points, just to give like the 12th player a chance to play. And this kid was like "you can't pull me out coach, I'm finally taller than someone. I'm dominating this guy." I was thinking of that kid last night. He wasn't any more "dominant" than Allen thought he was either.
Can Ed Malloy get no love? The fact that we know these refs names is all you need to know. The crew chief last nite, heck I can't even remember hearing his name (David Guthrie). Much like MLB, when you know the refs / umps name it is a problem.
This is where I'm at. I posted during the game that obviously this was great, but that there were worrisome signs from last night. Namely, Jaylen went OFF in the first half, and I don't really see that happening again too many times. They have to find a way to win when their threes aren't falling. Through two games, their non-three shots aren't really falling and that's a major concern.
On another note, Giannis has been held to very very poor shooting numbers so far. 9-25, and then 11-27. So 20-52 total (38.5%). Clearly, Horford and Grant Williams are doing great work against him, and as long as they continue to do so, Giannis will be pretty inefficient. However, I think we can all see a game or two where Giannis (.553 on the season) goes off. So this is both an encouraging point but also a concerning point.
Yeah, I noted that. They're just going to have to stay disciplined and keep pushing for other sources of offense because I don't think that's enough to live off of in Milwaukee - it just doesn't seem sustainable to expect to shoot that hot again. Like above average would be expected, not an otherworldly 46.5%.
As we've seen time and again, role players will perform better at home than on the road, so we should expect Portis, Allen, Connaughton et al to be more comfortable and vice versa with the guys on the Celtics. That means the stars have to be really aggressive and put pressure on the Milwaukee D for entire games, not just halves.
That's my point though. The Celtics no longer have home court advantage. I wouldn't expect them to "make their shots" more than not with Milwaukee needing to just win three home games. They might do so anyway, but it's not something I'd plan for. We saw how much the aggressiveness early in the game paid off for them - that's a repeatable, sustainable offensive behavior whereas being hot/cold from three can feel like a coin flip. The Celtics have enough talent to not rely on coin flips.
That’s a huge part of it. Grant is a converted big who is incredibly strong and fairly long. Semi is a wing with plus athleticism but not especially big or strong. Plus there’s the fact that, as you pointed out, Grant has NBA skills.
Speaking of Allen, the C's did a nice job on him last night and that was a (smaller) factor in the (big) win. His previous 4 games he was 27-42 from the field and 17-26 from 3. They limited him to only 4 FGA and 0-1 from 3. If they keep limiting his 3PA that bodes well.
I disagree that it is a "coin flip". The open 3s are good looks.
Here's a breakdown that may change your perspective:
At one point in the first half (maybe the entirety of the first half, I can't remember), the Celts were 11-16 from 3. They finished 20-43. So they only hit 9 of their last 27 3s (33%).
They led by 25 at half, and won by 23.
So even with the poor shooting in the 2nd half, the Bucks only outscored the Celts by 2.
If the Celts shot 37.5% from 3 for the game, they'd have hit 16 3s instead of 20. Ok, take off 12 points... and they still win by 11.
This will be a counter opinion but Smart's need to be involved defensively w/Giannis can hurt the C's sometimes. Marcus trying to double Giannis/Durant (off Grayson and Curry) isn't helpful in the least. PP/White know they need to stay on the perimeter with the +++ shooters. Grant and Horford can make Giannis' life hard without help, it's massive. Marcus needs to be disciplined and not leave Connaughton/Grayson open for kick-out/step-in 3s. Giannis went from 12 assists to 7 last night, also not all assists are created equal
Right, Al and White went 1-9 from 3 last night. Take away a couple JB makes and give them to Al and DW, it nets out the same.
And as I noted in my previous post, if the Celts only hit 37% of their 3s last night they still win by double figures.
Word.
I get that there's some Winston Wolf vibe that some folks might want to put out there, but I don't see a ton of "Celtzz in 5 baby!" posts in this thread that necessitate that wet blanket.
We played better offensively and defensively last night and won comfortably. Coach Bud's turn to make adjustments, plus we're heading to their court. It's probably gonna be a long series.
Random thoughts just because I enjoy random thoughts:
1. Grant W. What more can you say? I think you have to conclude that this draft pick has been a home run (if not a grand slam home run). On top of everything people have noted: (i) strong as an ox with excellent lateral movement to be able to handle 1 on 1 assignments with GA as often than not [my mind is blown being able to write that with a straight face]; (ii) development as a sharp shooting 3 point shooter; (iii) great defensive instincts and foot speed (which is insane to think about given where he was 2 years ago), I also think he's one of the smartest players on the team with the highest basketball IQ. His pump faking at the 3 point line is now a real skill. Guys run at him and he makes that fundamental fake, they fly by, and he either resets for an open 3 or makes the pass to the open man next to him for the WIDE OPEN 3. He is also putting the ball on the floor now, and has the presence of mind when to shoot inside, pull up or dish. He has very good vision when he does this and got JB at least 2 wide open 3s last night. His athleticism is underrated. He actually has a pretty solid vertical jump (the block of the GA layup where GA was fouled a good example), which he often displays by challenging drivers to the hoop. What a revelation.
2. Time Lord. I agree that he's not strong enough to stick with GA. No shame in that, as no one really can, but if he's 1 on 1 with GA, it's a problem. His help side defense and presence on the back line is great, and he can guard the perimeter against most guards given is recovery speed and his incredibly quick hops. Knocking down that baseline 12 footer was food for the basketball soul, if only he could develop that a bit more. Another home run draft pick.
3. Pritchard. As noted above, his best role on this team is situational 3 point shooter off the bench and sometime ballhandling point guard. I agree that he's not (yet) suited as the No. 2 ballhandling option behind Marcus. However, I think he's a tough MF'er who is not afraid of anything. I think his defense, while still subpar, has improved dramatically, as he is stronger in his base than people give him credit for and he competes. I don't think he's such a weak defender that he cannot be on the court for 15-20 minutes per game. I have high hopes that he will continue to improve and become a really valuable piece for the next 3 years. If only he could grow 3". This draft pick has been a solid double or triple.
4. JB. I mean, what else can you say about that first half? He was supernatural and willed the Celtics to a dominant, insurmountable lead. Loved the drive and pass to Tatum at the end of the half for the easy 2. I've been a sometime critic of his game, as I don't think he's a terribly well rounded player and I don't think he ever will be (i.e. way too much tunnel vision on offense, a sub par ballhandler, way too prone to TO's, a sometimes indifferent off the ball defender), but he's so valuable when he's going well. He flashed "bad JB" in the second half a bit too much, but supernatural JB was largely responsible for the first half explosion. so he's forgiven (for now)
. He is who he is at this point, a high volume scorer and when engaged, an excellent on ball defender, who can carry the team for long stretches. He also has some consistent repeated flaws that are a regular part of his game. A borderline all-star. Hard to argue with his value.
5. Al. Fucking A, what a thrill it is to see him hooping the way he is. That he can "handle" GA the way he has, at age 35 (he'll be 36 next month), is a tribute to his fitness and competitiveness. He seems like an amazing voice in the locker room too, and when he's hitting some of his shots, he's just so valuable to this team. It was a little frustrating last night that he made a few really good drives to the basket, and rather than taking the easy hoop, looked to pass, but that's a quibble. I do think he struggles in the post against GA and Lopez, but so what, he's brought so much more value on the court than I ever expected this year. Kudos to him and to Brad for that deal.
6. Officiating. There are some really shitty calls in these games (not just this series, but watching others too) but once a game is over, I try to remind myself how hard it is to officiate the NBA game. Now multiply that difficulty by how physical Al, Grant, GA, Lopez and Portis all are, and I have some sympathy for the refs. That said, GA cannot be allowed to do his Earl Campbell imitation every time he goes through the lane. SVG made the point last night when he called out the refs: "What is Grant Williams supposed to do if that's not an offensive foul?" He's right, but I'm afraid that this is something we're going to have to just live with, unfortunately. As long as they do not call those blocks on Al and Grant and they stay out of foul trouble, that's something? Not really, but what are you going to do? Maybe Ime should be praising GA to the sky but in the same breath, make a public statement "of course, if he's is continued to be allowed to truck and bulldoze our players, who are standing straight in his path, without getting a charge called on him, then we're in a heap of trouble."
What a fun year so far.
1. Grant W. What more can you say? I think you have to conclude that this draft pick has been a home run (if not a grand slam home run). On top of everything people have noted: (i) strong as an ox with excellent lateral movement to be able to handle 1 on 1 assignments with GA as often than not [my mind is blown being able to write that with a straight face]; (ii) development as a sharp shooting 3 point shooter; (iii) great defensive instincts and foot speed (which is insane to think about given where he was 2 years ago), I also think he's one of the smartest players on the team with the highest basketball IQ. His pump faking at the 3 point line is now a real skill. Guys run at him and he makes that fundamental fake, they fly by, and he either resets for an open 3 or makes the pass to the open man next to him for the WIDE OPEN 3. He is also putting the ball on the floor now, and has the presence of mind when to shoot inside, pull up or dish. He has very good vision when he does this and got JB at least 2 wide open 3s last night. His athleticism is underrated. He actually has a pretty solid vertical jump (the block of the GA layup where GA was fouled a good example), which he often displays by challenging drivers to the hoop. What a revelation.
2. Time Lord. I agree that he's not strong enough to stick with GA. No shame in that, as no one really can, but if he's 1 on 1 with GA, it's a problem. His help side defense and presence on the back line is great, and he can guard the perimeter against most guards given is recovery speed and his incredibly quick hops. Knocking down that baseline 12 footer was food for the basketball soul, if only he could develop that a bit more. Another home run draft pick.
3. Pritchard. As noted above, his best role on this team is situational 3 point shooter off the bench and sometime ballhandling point guard. I agree that he's not (yet) suited as the No. 2 ballhandling option behind Marcus. However, I think he's a tough MF'er who is not afraid of anything. I think his defense, while still subpar, has improved dramatically, as he is stronger in his base than people give him credit for and he competes. I don't think he's such a weak defender that he cannot be on the court for 15-20 minutes per game. I have high hopes that he will continue to improve and become a really valuable piece for the next 3 years. If only he could grow 3". This draft pick has been a solid double or triple.
4. JB. I mean, what else can you say about that first half? He was supernatural and willed the Celtics to a dominant, insurmountable lead. Loved the drive and pass to Tatum at the end of the half for the easy 2. I've been a sometime critic of his game, as I don't think he's a terribly well rounded player and I don't think he ever will be (i.e. way too much tunnel vision on offense, a sub par ballhandler, way too prone to TO's, a sometimes indifferent off the ball defender), but he's so valuable when he's going well. He flashed "bad JB" in the second half a bit too much, but supernatural JB was largely responsible for the first half explosion. so he's forgiven (for now)
. He is who he is at this point, a high volume scorer and when engaged, an excellent on ball defender, who can carry the team for long stretches. He also has some consistent repeated flaws that are a regular part of his game. A borderline all-star. Hard to argue with his value.5. Al. Fucking A, what a thrill it is to see him hooping the way he is. That he can "handle" GA the way he has, at age 35 (he'll be 36 next month), is a tribute to his fitness and competitiveness. He seems like an amazing voice in the locker room too, and when he's hitting some of his shots, he's just so valuable to this team. It was a little frustrating last night that he made a few really good drives to the basket, and rather than taking the easy hoop, looked to pass, but that's a quibble. I do think he struggles in the post against GA and Lopez, but so what, he's brought so much more value on the court than I ever expected this year. Kudos to him and to Brad for that deal.
6. Officiating. There are some really shitty calls in these games (not just this series, but watching others too) but once a game is over, I try to remind myself how hard it is to officiate the NBA game. Now multiply that difficulty by how physical Al, Grant, GA, Lopez and Portis all are, and I have some sympathy for the refs. That said, GA cannot be allowed to do his Earl Campbell imitation every time he goes through the lane. SVG made the point last night when he called out the refs: "What is Grant Williams supposed to do if that's not an offensive foul?" He's right, but I'm afraid that this is something we're going to have to just live with, unfortunately. As long as they do not call those blocks on Al and Grant and they stay out of foul trouble, that's something? Not really, but what are you going to do? Maybe Ime should be praising GA to the sky but in the same breath, make a public statement "of course, if he's is continued to be allowed to truck and bulldoze our players, who are standing straight in his path, without getting a charge called on him, then we're in a heap of trouble."
What a fun year so far.
I'm gonna quibble about what flashing "bad JB" in the second half entails, given that he ended up with 2TO, and shot 11-18, 6-10, and continued to move the ball (6A). He just didn't shoot ridiculously in the second half.
Jaylen scored 30 points on 18 shots, that's hardly going off for a guy who averaged 24 ppg this year (Jaylen scored 28 or more points 22x this season). The only Celtic who played over his head offensively was Grant, and he's designed to exploit the Bucks' defense (corner office) and it was cancelled out somewhat by Derrick White going 0 for everything.
I'll take the quibble. I do think "bad JB" exists, and exists a bit too frequently, but no issue with saying he was great last night.
I would say, one thing about MIL is they give up a lot of 3s that would be classified as "wide open" in fact they led the league in wide open 3PA allowed in the regular season.
In 2022 the Celtics shot over 40% from 3 on wide open looks on pretty high volume. So shooting in the low to mid 40s this series is not otherworldly, it's just above average.
I am pretty certain that Milwaukee is much more concerned about their inability to find any daylight in the half court against our defense than Boston is about their ability to continue getting and hitting wide open looks.
If the disparity in shot quality is anything close to what it was last night over the course of the series, the Celtics will take it. The Bucks getting 18 mostly bad/contested threes with the Celtics getting 40+ mostly open/in-rhythm threes is a math problem the Bucks cannot overcome.
The Cs of course have to keep maximizing those looks because we've seen there is a fine line between "OK shot" and "the best possible shot."
If the disparity in shot quality is anything close to what it was last night over the course of the series, the Celtics will take it. The Bucks getting 18 mostly bad/contested threes with the Celtics getting 40+ mostly open/in-rhythm threes is a math problem the Bucks cannot overcome.
The Cs of course have to keep maximizing those looks because we've seen there is a fine line between "OK shot" and "the best possible shot."
Yup. Milwaukee's only efficient half court offense last night was when the refs allowed Giannis to completely truck whomever he was guarding, beyond what even he is normally allowed.
Celtics now -120 to win the series, Bucks are even odds. Compared with the other series tied 1-1, the Warriors are -300 and the Griz are +250.
So decided to look it up....
Celtics have gotten 45 3PA through 2 games that NBA.com classifies as "wide open" and hit 18 of them, so they are actually right at what they shot in 2022.
Celtics have gotten 45 3PA through 2 games that NBA.com classifies as "wide open" and hit 18 of them, so they are actually right at what they shot in 2022.
I said Jaylen went off in the first half. Which he absolutely did. He shot 9 of 10 from the floor (5-5 from three) and scored 25 points in the first half. This is a VERY different game if Brown doesn't go absolutely bonkers in the first half, and we all know it.
But he did, so yay, awesome, it was fantastic. I just don't expect anything like that again.
This series has 7-game zig-zag results written all over it. One adjustment after the next.
This may hold for Milwaukee, but the Celtics don’t really have “role players” except for Pritchard (and maybe Theis). The top 7 players are all starting caliber players with pretty great versatility. We need to keep running the offense with both the speed and patience we played with last night to force the Bucks into rotation and commit to continuing the offense until we get the shots we want. We saw that for most of the game last night. Even where the team lost it for stretches, we saw them refocus late and make second/third look plays and Tatum getting clean looks after drive and relocate actions. The Bucks have a really good first line of defense, but they are built to collapse into the paint on drives. We should be able to keep attacking that by driving and kicking into a rotating defense that then lets us get the shots we want from the corner. We don’t want our stars to try to shift into a do it themselves with aggressiveness mode. That’s what the Bucks are built to defend and they do it really really well. We saw that in Game 1. The Celtics need to play team basketball. It’s what got them here and it’s how they will win this series.
Just wanted to put this here for anyone who missed it. Not the most important play of the game, but one that felt good to watch.
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1521654071479791616?s=20&t=5dae-k4Ecq7b-Fp5b3W3hQ
Celtics: BOOM
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1521654071479791616?s=20&t=5dae-k4Ecq7b-Fp5b3W3hQ
Celtics: BOOM
It worked great yesterday, but often times turning down good shots in hopes that you find great ones results in worse shot quality, not better. Because often times that great shot simply will not be there, so turning down a good shot is often turning down the best shot you're going to get that possession.
In general, teams that take a lot of *good* shots tend to score points. Yes, it's better to take *great* shots, but *great* shots, especially against excellent defensive teams, are very hard to come by. It worked for Boston last night, which was fantastic. It will be hard to make that work over and over again.
For all of the folks worried about the C's losing home court advantage, I would like to note something I brought up previously. The C's have actually been as good, if not better, on the road since the second half of the season started, then they have been at home.
Since January 8th, the Celtics have lost 5 games on the road. In 2 of those games, @Toronto (lost by 3) and @Milwaukee (lost by 6), Jayson Tatum was inactive. They also lost to Philly by 12, pre-Derrick White and Marcus was out, so DS started (he went 0/6 for -15). They got beat badly by Atlanta by 16, a game in which they shot as poorly as they have all season (34% from the field and 19% from deep), and they got crushed by Indiana without Al and again, a terrible shooting night.
That's it. Those are all of the Celtics losses on the road since game #40 of the NBA regular season.
Here's a few of their wins:
By 29 at Memphis
By 23 at Chicago
By 42 at Washington
By 22 at Minnesota
By 28 at Utah
By 20 at Denver
By 22 at Golden State
By 14 at Charlotte
By 23 at Brooklyn
By 48 at Philly
By 35 at Brooklyn
By 33 at Orlando
By 19 at Indiana
This team has been absolute fucking wagon on the road for months. They've done almost everything better away from the TD Garden during this stretch. And oh yeah, they went into Brooklyn and beat them two more times in the playoffs.
Just hold the line. Bad shooting nights could happen, and of course, it's the playoffs and officiating, etc., but if this team just plays the way they have been, they aren't and shouldn't be worried about home court in the playoffs.
Since January 8th, the Celtics have lost 5 games on the road. In 2 of those games, @Toronto (lost by 3) and @Milwaukee (lost by 6), Jayson Tatum was inactive. They also lost to Philly by 12, pre-Derrick White and Marcus was out, so DS started (he went 0/6 for -15). They got beat badly by Atlanta by 16, a game in which they shot as poorly as they have all season (34% from the field and 19% from deep), and they got crushed by Indiana without Al and again, a terrible shooting night.
That's it. Those are all of the Celtics losses on the road since game #40 of the NBA regular season.
Here's a few of their wins:
By 29 at Memphis
By 23 at Chicago
By 42 at Washington
By 22 at Minnesota
By 28 at Utah
By 20 at Denver
By 22 at Golden State
By 14 at Charlotte
By 23 at Brooklyn
By 48 at Philly
By 35 at Brooklyn
By 33 at Orlando
By 19 at Indiana
This team has been absolute fucking wagon on the road for months. They've done almost everything better away from the TD Garden during this stretch. And oh yeah, they went into Brooklyn and beat them two more times in the playoffs.
Just hold the line. Bad shooting nights could happen, and of course, it's the playoffs and officiating, etc., but if this team just plays the way they have been, they aren't and shouldn't be worried about home court in the playoffs.
This is true in a vacuum, but we are talking about a specific opponent that plays a specific strategy (guard the paint and concede the three) that makes finding those shots easier. The Celtics had 1 or 2 24 second violations and maybe one or two times when they had to force a shot to beat the clock. So, for the most part, in game 2, they did indeed pass up a lot of open shots for better ones
The 33% in the second half is only slightly lower than their season 3 pt % of 35.6%. So if you're saying that they shot within a range that we'd typically expect (rather than an atypical 46.5%) and still lost, that would be a bad thing, no?
If the Celtics just went 2-0 at home, this wouldn't be cause for concern going forward, but with the Bucks having home court, we shouldn't expect the Bucks to shoot that bad again or the Celtics to shoot that well. Even if the Celtics shoot 40% - as noted above, a fair expectation considering the wide open looks the Bucks allow - that alone is not enough to carry the offense this series. I'm scared shitless of close games with the whistles that Giannis is getting right now, and I don't see them becoming less friendly in Milwaukee.
By aggressive, I don't mean 1-1, I mean exactly what you're saying. Driving, collapsing, dishing, driving again, etc. If that results in a corner three, great. If it's an open midranger, also great. We can't, though, do a pass to a kind of open PP who jacks an above the break three, or take forever to get into our offense so that it results in Tatum/Brown/whoever taking an off-balance three at the end of the clock. The foot needs to stay on the gas. They're not likely going to be gifted a 25 point buffer again in the series, Milwaukee is too good of a team.
Is it worth trying to get JB some rest to get the hammy better, or is that just too risky at this point? I ask because if there's any merit to the idea, it seems to me the game to do is G3--coming off the extended break from G2, and before the series pace settles in every other night.
If the Celts shot 35.6% from 3 last night they’d still have won by 8. And I would argue that given the quality of 3s that Milwaukee seems ok with giving up, we can expect better than that season average. In summary, the Celts didn’t only win last night because they shot lights out in the first half. To play the Bucks even while shooting 33% from 3 is extremely encouraging to me, because I think we have great reason to believe the Celts should shoot above average from deep this series.
If he had scored 15 in stead of 25, maybe the Celtics are up by 15 at the half instead, still delivering a beating. If he had scored 15 instead of 5 in the second half, maybe the Celtics salt the game away a few minutes earlier. He scored 30 points for the game, nothing about that number is remarkable for him.
I wouldn't use that number, different roster, different usage. I'd use Jan. 1 on, during which time they were the 3rd highest volume 3pt team and the 3rd highest percentage team.
They also shot as I noted above, over 40% on wide open 3s, of which the Bucks gave up 20+ a game on average (22.5 so far this series).
So honestly... yes the Celtics are likely going to get 24-27 points off just wide open 3s, overall I'd expect somewhere around 55-60 points per game off 40-50 3PA, plus another 12-18 points off FTs.
That means even in an average shooting night (say 38-40%), you're looking at 78 points, add in some transition buckets, and all you have to do is play D... and not shoot historically poorly from 2. Take game 1, if nothing else changed, but the Celtics shot their season average from 2... they win by 4-6.
And if the Bucks shot their season average, they would've won by 1. Not including garbage time, they win by three. Maybe we can expect them to shoot better than their season average in aggregate, but they have to do it specifically in 3 out of 5 games with 3 games on the road. Like I said above, they're going to take more threes than normal this series and that's fine, but they need to maintain the energy and aggression they had in the first half, even when it doesn't produce like it did in the first half, throughout entire games because I don't think Giannis will have that kind of a performance at home and we should expect better shotmaking from their role players in friendlier confines.
Except the Bucks WON’T shoot their season average for the series because the Celts are an ELITE defensive team. Whereas I think we can say with good or great confidence the Celts WILL shoot over 35.6% from 3 this series.
Edit: $100 JF bet @ManicCompression ? I bet the Celts shoot over 35.6% from 3 for the series and the Bucks shoot under 46.8% from the field for the series (both season averages)
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This is possibly a terrible idea but this seems like a series where getting as much 3 point shooting as possible could be important enough that we might see some Hauser minutes? Tell me why this is dumb.
Defense.
The Celtics are much better off shooting 36% from 3 and playing really good D than shooting 38% from 3 and having a weak point on D.
Edit- also who is Hauser replacing? Not gonna be Smart or White, so whoever he takes off is probably a decent 3pt shooter.
We get about 10 minutes a game where Giannis is off the floor. I understand Hauser would be a liability and probably his minutes would be overlapping with Pritchard but I am wondering if maybe they don't want Pritch matching up with Holliday they swap them for those stretches. Understandably Pritchard has far more experience and is a proven quantity.
Maybe Time Lord can work his magic and figure out how to enable JB to work out 3 hours before the 2nd half too!