Celtics vs. Bucks, Round 2 Discussion

Who you got?

  • Celts in 4

    Votes: 7 3.3%
  • Celts in 5

    Votes: 69 32.5%
  • Celts in 6

    Votes: 106 50.0%
  • Celts in 7

    Votes: 25 11.8%
  • Bucks in 4

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bucks in 5

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bucks in 6

    Votes: 3 1.4%
  • Bucks in 7

    Votes: 2 0.9%

  • Total voters
    212
  • Poll closed .

Deathofthebambino

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Maybe Time Lord can work his magic and figure out how to enable JB to work out 3 hours before the 2nd half too!
JB was very clear after the game that part of the reason for the early workout was because he wanted to get his hamstring warm, then let it recover, prior to gametime. I'm certainly no physical therapist, so I have no idea the reasoning behind that, but he did talk about it in very clear terms, and said he plans to do it again before game 3.
 

ManicCompression

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Except the Bucks WON’T shoot their season average for the series because the Celts are an ELITE defensive team. Whereas I think we can say with good or great confidence the Celts WILL shoot over 35.6% from 3 this series.
Except in Game 1, when the Bucks shot their season average?

Like the Celtics are amazing on defense, don't get me wrong, but that can only get you so far against a player of Giannis' caliber. We saw him when he's the screener in the second half - that's basically an unguardable play, either a layup for the handler or a dunk for GA. They're going to go to that more (or at least they should, but who knows with Bud). Giannis will continue to push the envelope inside, get guys into foul trouble - there's still meat on the bone for the Bucks offense.

I'm not saying the sky is falling and I still think the Celtics pull this out, but JT and JB need to keep pressing the defense and avoid stagnant possessions b/c Milwaukee, to me, is a much more difficult matchup than probably anyone else the Cs will see in the playoffs.
 

tims4wins

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Except in Game 1, when the Bucks shot their season average?

Like the Celtics are amazing on defense, don't get me wrong, but that can only get you so far against a player of Giannis' caliber. We saw him when he's the screener in the second half - that's basically an unguardable play, either a layup for the handler or a dunk for GA. They're going to go to that more (or at least they should, but who knows with Bud). Giannis will continue to push the envelope inside, get guys into foul trouble - there's still meat on the bone for the Bucks offense.

I'm not saying the sky is falling and I still think the Celtics pull this out, but JT and JB need to keep pressing the defense and avoid stagnant possessions b/c Milwaukee, to me, is a much more difficult matchup than probably anyone else the Cs will see in the playoffs.
The Bucks shot 41.1% in game 1. Their season average was 46.8%.

You taking the bet? Or realizing that your take is wrong?

Edit: also, I clearly said FOR THE SERIES. Obviously there will be single games above and below it. But my take is that over the long run - the 7 game series - the Celts will shoot better from 3 than their season average, and that the Bucks will shoot worse from the field than their season average.
 
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slamminsammya

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Except in Game 1, when the Bucks shot their season average?

Like the Celtics are amazing on defense, don't get me wrong, but that can only get you so far against a player of Giannis' caliber. We saw him when he's the screener in the second half - that's basically an unguardable play, either a layup for the handler or a dunk for GA. They're going to go to that more (or at least they should, but who knows with Bud). Giannis will continue to push the envelope inside, get guys into foul trouble - there's still meat on the bone for the Bucks offense.

I'm not saying the sky is falling and I still think the Celtics pull this out, but JT and JB need to keep pressing the defense and avoid stagnant possessions b/c Milwaukee, to me, is a much more difficult matchup than probably anyone else the Cs will see in the playoffs.
Regarding the Giannis as screener action - I wondered during the game if the Celtics were purposely not making an adjustment since the game was mostly in hand already and Ime didn't want to show his hand too early. Do coaches think that way?
 

Auger34

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And if the Bucks shot their season average, they would've won by 1. Not including garbage time, they win by three. Maybe we can expect them to shoot better than their season average in aggregate, but they have to do it specifically in 3 out of 5 games with 3 games on the road. Like I said above, they're going to take more threes than normal this series and that's fine, but they need to maintain the energy and aggression they had in the first half, even when it doesn't produce like it did in the first half, throughout entire games because I don't think Giannis will have that kind of a performance at home and we should expect better shotmaking from their role players in friendlier confines.
But how much of their season 3PA average is changed without Middleton? Both from his own 3 point shooting and creating open 3 point looks for teammates?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Grant is the Semi that we always hoped Semi would be. The play where he got position in the lane on Giannis, and Giannis ran right into his chest and bounced off...chef's kiss. Few people a) shake off GA like that, and 2) don't get called. Maybe nobody else.

JB was the key to the game last night. That first quarter was peak Bird/Jordan. God on both ends.
Maybe. Or it's easier to plan for Giannis with no Middleton.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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I think Al should be getting more love. His playoff performances have been remarkable to me. I certainly didn't expect this level of excellence and extended playing time when the Celtics brought him back.
How many times last night did Al grab a rebound or a loose ball and bring it up the court himself, denying Milwaukee the chance to set up on-ball pressure? I'm sure that was part of the game plan, but there are not a lot of big men who could do that successfully. Huge kudos to Ime and the coaches for the adjustment and Al for executing.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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For all of the folks worried about the C's losing home court advantage, I would like to note something I brought up previously. The C's have actually been as good, if not better, on the road since the second half of the season started, then they have been at home.

Since January 8th, the Celtics have lost 5 games on the road. In 2 of those games, @Toronto (lost by 3) and @Milwaukee (lost by 6), Jayson Tatum was inactive. They also lost to Philly by 12, pre-Derrick White and Marcus was out, so DS started (he went 0/6 for -15). They got beat badly by Atlanta by 16, a game in which they shot as poorly as they have all season (34% from the field and 19% from deep), and they got crushed by Indiana without Al and again, a terrible shooting night.

That's it. Those are all of the Celtics losses on the road since game #40 of the NBA regular season.

Here's a few of their wins:

By 29 at Memphis
By 23 at Chicago
By 42 at Washington
By 22 at Minnesota
By 28 at Utah
By 20 at Denver
By 22 at Golden State
By 14 at Charlotte
By 23 at Brooklyn
By 48 at Philly
By 35 at Brooklyn
By 33 at Orlando
By 19 at Indiana

This team has been absolute fucking wagon on the road for months. They've done almost everything better away from the TD Garden during this stretch. And oh yeah, they went into Brooklyn and beat them two more times in the playoffs.

Just hold the line. Bad shooting nights could happen, and of course, it's the playoffs and officiating, etc., but if this team just plays the way they have been, they aren't and shouldn't be worried about home court in the playoffs.
I forget the stats but the Cs weren't just good on the road in 2022, they were historically good. Let's hope that continues.
 

ManicCompression

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The Bucks shot 41.1% in game 1. Their season average was 46.8%.

You taking the bet? Or realizing that your take is wrong?
My take is that they should continue to play aggressive basketball like they did in the first half, even it doesn't have the same results, rather than the way they did most of the second half. Which part of that do you disagree with?

I'm not taking that bet because I think it's likely that both those things happen and the Cs could still possibly lose the series for the reasons I've repeatedly stated. In the aggregate, the Celtics have shot .409 from 3 so far, but they're 1-1 because the distribution is lumpy. They could end up losing the series 4-3 with that shooting percentage because they were really hot in the games they won and cool in the ones they lost. So maybe I'm just framing this wrong - the Celtics are going to shoot a lot of threes this series. It is better for those threes to come off of action and pressure than lack of movement, and I don't think the Bucks are going to continue to collapse inside in the same way if the Celtics don't occasionally shoot inside instead of kicking out. There needs to be more to this offense, whether it's make-you-pay midrangers from JB/JT or pressure on the rim to get Lopez in foul trouble again. They did that nicely in the first half, went away for a long stretch in Q3-Q4, and came back to it more at the end.
 

RorschachsMask

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If the Bucks are going to continue being so aggressive in trapping Tatum/forcing everyone else to beat them, the Celtics will continue getting a ton of open looks from three. Tatum needs to drive aggressively like he did last night, and Jaylen needs to continue making the Bucks pay for leaving Grayson on an island defending him.
 

Devizier

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If I were to criticize the Celtics’ performance, it would be that they had three guys on the verge of fouling out last night. One of whom (White) would have been a disastrous loss, although playing the Bucks without Horford wouldn’t be great either.
 

snowmanny

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#2 guy Jaylen went off for a half and scored 25 points. I am willing to bet he won’t score 25 in a half again this series. They won the game.

Remember when #2 guy Kyrie went off and the Nets didn’t win? That’s when you worry.
 

Cellar-Door

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My take is that they should continue to play aggressive basketball like they did in the first half, even it doesn't have the same results, rather than the way they did most of the second half. Which part of that do you disagree with?

I'm not taking that bet because I think it's likely that both those things happen and the Cs could still possibly lose the series for the reasons I've repeatedly stated. In the aggregate, the Celtics have shot .409 from 3 so far, but they're 1-1 because the distribution is lumpy. They could end up losing the series 4-3 with that shooting percentage because they were really hot in the games they won and cool in the ones they lost. So maybe I'm just framing this wrong - the Celtics are going to shoot a lot of threes this series. It is better for those threes to come off of action and pressure than lack of movement, and I don't think the Bucks are going to continue to collapse inside in the same way if the Celtics don't occasionally shoot inside instead of kicking out. There needs to be more to this offense, whether it's make-you-pay midrangers from JB/JT or pressure on the rim to get Lopez in foul trouble again. They did that nicely in the first half, went away for a long stretch in Q3-Q4, and came back to it more at the end.
I don't think they are 1-1 because of the 3pt distribution. Game 1 had far more to do with giving up a ton of turnovers, and a massive amount of fast break points and shooting 29% from 2 than it did with shooting 36% from 3.

If the Celtics shoot 36% from 3 every game, they should win the series.... unless they have a historically bad series from 2 AND give up a lot of fast break points.
 

benhogan

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I don't think they are 1-1 because of the 3pt distribution. Game 1 had far more to do with giving up a ton of turnovers, and a massive amount of fast break points and shooting 29% from 2 than it did with shooting 36% from 3.

If the Celtics shoot 36% from 3 every game, they should win the series.... unless they have a historically bad series from 2 AND give up a lot of fast break points.
Agreed. If the C's don't turn the ball over we'll be happy with plenty of open 3pt attempts that Mil willingly gives up.

Not sure why people are so concerned with the # of 3pt shots vs 2pt shots. It's a NBA media driven red herring
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Regarding the Giannis as screener action - I wondered during the game if the Celtics were purposely not making an adjustment since the game was mostly in hand already and Ime didn't want to show his hand too early. Do coaches think that way?
There may have been some element of “let’s trade buckets and not let Giannis get a bunch of three point plays” but who knows if anything was held back, per se. I think they probably just executed those possessions poorly. Not aggressive enough on the switch, too slow to rotate, etc, and there was no rim protection in the game at those times.
 

Jimbodandy

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We get about 10 minutes a game where Giannis is off the floor. I understand Hauser would be a liability and probably his minutes would be overlapping with Pritchard but I am wondering if maybe they don't want Pritch matching up with Holliday they swap them for those stretches. Understandably Pritchard has far more experience and is a proven quantity.
If you don't want Pritchard getting beat by Jrue (you don't), then you definitely don't want Hauser getting matched onto Jrue. PP will at least be able to slide his feet and probably has a small footspeed advantage over Holiday. The latter can bully him, but he'd waltz around Hauser like a traffic cone. Unless Pritchard gets hurt or is somehow completely ineffective to the point that Ime has to "try something", I'd be surprised if we see Hauser.

Maybe. Or it's easier to plan for Giannis with no Middleton.
Of course it is. Not sure that the plan is vastly different either way, but sure it's nice having one fewer talented player to worry about.
 

Strike4

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While there were definitely some concerning things at the end of game 2...game 3 is a different game, right? Smart will be back, Brown will have had rest, coaches will adjust etc. I think the Celtics are aware of all these issues. They know that they need to do something else if the three point shooting isn't there or Giannis is in the pick and roll again.
 

benhogan

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If I were to criticize the Celtics’ performance, it would be that they had three guys on the verge of fouling out last night. One of whom (White) would have been a disastrous loss, although playing the Bucks without Horford wouldn’t be great either.
The C's defense will always include plenty of fouls called. You can't be physical and be afraid of the whistle.

It's why Brad added more defensive depth at the trade deadline with White/Theis.

They survived a tough ref whistle, no minutes from Theis, their DPOY out and still held the NBA Champs to 86pts.

Foul trouble is part of the cost of freight, when fully healthy it's not an issue at all

Tatum is the one player you need to be concerned with foul trouble
 

bakahump

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Your Ime, Or Brad. And you have 30 seconds of mike time. What do you say to try to prevent or minimize the star treatment that GA is getting from the Refs?
 

ManicCompression

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I don't think they are 1-1 because of the 3pt distribution. Game 1 had far more to do with giving up a ton of turnovers, and a massive amount of fast break points and shooting 29% from 2 than it did with shooting 36% from 3.
I'm not saying it's 1-1 solely because of 3 pt distribution. I'll put it this way:
- The margin of error was lower in game 1 because they weren't as aggressive on offense. You note they shot 29% on two - they did that while also taking an historically low amount of shots from two. If they shoot better from two that game, it wouldn't have mattered like at all in terms of winning because they didn't really try to get two point shots.
- The margin of error was higher in game 2 because they were aggressive in the first half AND they shot well from deep. If they didn't shoot 11-16, they were still creating offense in different ways. Then they went into the second half, shot 50%+ more threes, were less aggressive, and lo and behold that margin of error disappeared for a long stretch of time.

I don't think it's a coincidence that they were getting better shots and making more of them in the first half because they were less reliant on the three. They're not going to be as hot as they were in the first half likely again for the rest of the series, but they CAN be as aggressive, and I think that offensive behavior is more sustainable than shooting luck.
 

Strike4

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If you don't want Pritchard getting beat by Jrue (you don't), then you definitely don't want Hauser getting matched onto Jrue. PP will at least be able to slide his feet and probably has a small footspeed advantage over Holiday. The latter can bully him, but he'd waltz around Hauser like a traffic cone. Unless Pritchard gets hurt or is somehow completely ineffective to the point that Ime has to "try something", I'd be surprised if we see Hauser.
We're in trouble if Hauser is thrown in there. Not really a knock on him per se, but just look at all the game it took to get PP up to playing as the 8th guy for a playoff team. We can't have Hauser shitting himself out there.
 

JakeRae

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It worked great yesterday, but often times turning down good shots in hopes that you find great ones results in worse shot quality, not better. Because often times that great shot simply will not be there, so turning down a good shot is often turning down the best shot you're going to get that possession.

In general, teams that take a lot of *good* shots tend to score points. Yes, it's better to take *great* shots, but *great* shots, especially against excellent defensive teams, are very hard to come by. It worked for Boston last night, which was fantastic. It will be hard to make that work over and over again.
As Eddie Jurak also noted, this doesn’t hold against the Bucks when the “good” shot is an open above the break three. It’s probably fine for Tatum to take those when they present since he has to work hard for any open look, but for the rest of the team, the Bucks defense is designed to give us that shot. It will pretty much always be there so there is no reason to take it with 14 seconds on the shot clock.

This also should be repeatable unless the Bucks adjust to defend the corner three better. Doing that without opening the lane will be really hard for them to do, especially if we keep running actions where Tatum drives, dishes, and then resets to the corner as it will be very hard for the Bucks to defend the reset without shifting to a scheme that let’s us pull their bigs out of the paint.
 
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ifmanis5

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They survived a tough ref whistle, no minutes from Theis, their DPOY out and still held the NBA Champs to 86pts.
Definitely this.
To lose a DPOY and still be next level defensively as a team is really impressive. Full marks to Grant who took a beating from GA but still did an excellent job with him.
 

Strike4

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Your Ime, Or Brad. And you have 30 seconds of mike time. What do you say to try to prevent or minimize the star treatment that GA is getting from the Refs?
I think the egregious ones, like where Grant Williams was plowed through, get played over and over for three days on ESPN while we wait for game 3 and that does more than anything.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Unless this is your first NBA playoffs as a fan, this series has zero mystery. The respective coaching staffs and players know each other well and fully understand the strategies being employed. Its now all about adjustments and counter moves.

If Udoka and staff aren't up to the job, we should know in short order though for some of us, that question is settled already (I was labeled an Udoka lover here last fall and I own that) but it would be a shock if Boston changes much in terms of rotations and matchups.
 

Toe Nash

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This series has 7-game zig-zag results written all over it. One adjustment after the next.
I don't know. Maybe from shooting or reffing variance, but what adjustment can the Bucks make? Their offense without Middleton is Giannis with the ball in his hands driving and getting to the rim or kicking out to shooters. The Celtics just showed they can credibly guard him with either Al or Grant one-on-one. That's bad for them.

Maybe Jrue can do a little more or they can try to pass around the perimeter but from where I sit I don't know what other options they have. Would be interested in seeing others' thoughts on the x and os adjustments Milwaukee might make
 

Strike4

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Unless this is your first NBA playoffs as a fan, this series has zero mystery. The respective coaching staffs and players know each other well and fully understand the strategies being employed. Its now all about adjustments and counter moves.

If Udoka and staff aren't up to the job, we should know in short order though for some of us, that question is settled already (I was labeled an Udoka lover here last fall and I own that) but it would be a shock if Boston changes much in terms of rotations and matchups.
And this is a good play, IMO. Smart coming back, Brown will be less hobbled in the second half (hopefully), extra scrutiny on refs with Giannis. You won with all that missing, now you have more assets at your disposal. No need to get crazy with the clipboard.
 

SteveF

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Lineups with Giannis, Portis, and Lopez have an offensive rating of 64.0.
The Celtics shot 16 corner 3s in game 2, comprising 20% of all their shots and 37% of their 3s. (Context: the worst team in the league at preventing corner 3s was at 13.6% of all shots, the best 7.2% of all shots)
 

Cellar-Door

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I'm not saying it's 1-1 solely because of 3 pt distribution. I'll put it this way:
- The margin of error was lower in game 1 because they weren't as aggressive on offense. You note they shot 29% on two - they did that while also taking an historically low amount of shots from two. If they shoot better from two that game, it wouldn't have mattered like at all in terms of winning because they didn't really try to get two point shots.
- The margin of error was higher in game 2 because they were aggressive in the first half AND they shot well from deep. If they didn't shoot 11-16, they were still creating offense in different ways. Then they went into the second half, shot 50%+ more threes, were less aggressive, and lo and behold that margin of error disappeared for a long stretch of time.

I don't think it's a coincidence that they were getting better shots and making more of them in the first half because they were less reliant on the three. They're not going to be as hot as they were in the first half likely again for the rest of the series, but they CAN be as aggressive, and I think that offensive behavior is more sustainable than shooting luck.
If they shot their season average from 2 they'd have won by 5... the math is not very hard.
They lost game 1 arguably because they were TOO aggressive, overpenetrating, forcing up bad shots against shotblockers, and much more so.... because they turned the ball over way too much and allowed way too many runouts.

There isn't really any case for the idea that the Celtics lost game 1 because they didn't take enough 2pt shots, or took too many 3s. You are staking out a case with no evidence then declaring it is right in opposition to all evidence to the contrary.

Edit- I'd also say they were too aggressive on their 3s in game 1, launching the first fairly open look they saw rather than probing for better location/scrambled defense shots.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't know. Maybe from shooting or reffing variance, but what adjustment can the Bucks make? Their offense without Middleton is Giannis with the ball in his hands driving and getting to the rim or kicking out to shooters. The Celtics just showed they can credibly guard him with either Al or Grant one-on-one. That's bad for them.

Maybe Jrue can do a little more or they can try to pass around the perimeter but from where I sit I don't know what other options they have. Would be interested in seeing others' thoughts on the x and os adjustments Milwaukee might make
Yeah, the Celtics are the better team than the Bucks without Middleton. They may be better than them anyway, but the Middleton injury hurts. Especially since he kills the Celtics.
 

Auger34

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Your Ime, Or Brad. And you have 30 seconds of mike time. What do you say to try to prevent or minimize the star treatment that GA is getting from the Refs?
As of now nothing. If the Celtics happen to lose Game 3 and it’s officiated terribly again, I think Ime takes a page from Taylor Jenkins book and goes a little scorched earth
 

Jimbodandy

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Unless this is your first NBA playoffs as a fan, this series has zero mystery. The respective coaching staffs and players know each other well and fully understand the strategies being employed. Its now all about adjustments and counter moves.

If Udoka and staff aren't up to the job, we should know in short order though for some of us, that question is settled already (I was labeled an Udoka lover here last fall and I own that) but it would be a shock if Boston changes much in terms of rotations and matchups.
Agreed with this.

What would really stand out is if Ime tightens a couple of things up in advance of game 3 or, more appropriately, is able to predict Bud's adjustments and have counters ready. If that happens, it would be a huge deal. He did seem to have answers for pretty much everything that Nash tried, not that Nash was betting a good hand.

This is a heavyweight fight. Game 3 will tell us something, but it already looks like there's a chance that we're going to the judge's cards at the end. Don't expect any knockouts.
 

Kliq

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Unless this is your first NBA playoffs as a fan, this series has zero mystery. The respective coaching staffs and players know each other well and fully understand the strategies being employed. Its now all about adjustments and counter moves.

If Udoka and staff aren't up to the job, we should know in short order though for some of us, that question is settled already (I was labeled an Udoka lover here last fall and I own that) but it would be a shock if Boston changes much in terms of rotations and matchups.
Yeah, the onus is on Milwaukee now to try and counter what Boston was able to do in Game 2. In Game 1 Milwaukee's core defensive strategy (pack the paint, get the ball out of Tatum's hands, and let marginal shooters fire away from three) was enough to stifle the Celtics, and they scrapped together enough non-Giannis offense from Holiday/Portis to get by. In Game 2 the Celtics made the appropriate adjustments in how they attacked the Bucks defense, and really exposed some of it's weaknesses with ball movement and better shot selection. Milwaukee looks like the team that will now have to adjust if they want to gain control in the series. Bud is a very good coach, and Giannis is a skilled problem-solver when it comes to dealing with teams trying to stop him, so there are probably several more counters still in play for both teams in this series.
 

tims4wins

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Yeah, the onus is on Milwaukee now to try and counter what Boston was able to do in Game 2. In Game 1 Milwaukee's core defensive strategy (pack the paint, get the ball out of Tatum's hands, and let marginal shooters fire away from three) was enough to stifle the Celtics, and they scrapped together enough non-Giannis offense from Holiday/Portis to get by. In Game 2 the Celtics made the appropriate adjustments in how they attacked the Bucks defense, and really exposed some of it's weaknesses with ball movement and better shot selection. Milwaukee looks like the team that will now have to adjust if they want to gain control in the series. Bud is a very good coach, and Giannis is a skilled problem-solver when it comes to dealing with teams trying to stop him, so there are probably several more counters still in play for both teams in this series.
Moreover, Milwaukee is struggling on offense.

Through 2 games:
43.6% overall FGA
28.8% from 3
46.3% from 2

Aside from the 27 points off 18 turnovers in game 1, they are doing very few things well on offense. Without Middleton, I expect this to continue, and for the Celts to advance. It may take 7 games, the Bucks are still good, have GA, and are the champs. But to my eyes, through two games, the Celts are the better, deeper team with more adjustments available to them.
 

Joe D Reid

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I don't think they are 1-1 because of the 3pt distribution. Game 1 had far more to do with giving up a ton of turnovers, and a massive amount of fast break points and shooting 29% from 2 than it did with shooting 36% from 3.

If the Celtics shoot 36% from 3 every game, they should win the series.... unless they have a historically bad series from 2 AND give up a lot of fast break points.
I agree that that fastbreak points were the difference between the two games. It's interesting, though, because fastbreak points generally come from (1) turnovers and (2) rebounds off of missed shots. In G1 the C's were high-turnover and poor-shooting and MIL got a bunch of points off the break and smoked the C's. In G2 the C's were low-turnover and good-shooting and MIL got nothing on the break and got stomped. We've yet to see what happens if there is a split, so it's hard to say how the series will shake out once it settles.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't know. Maybe from shooting or reffing variance, but what adjustment can the Bucks make? Their offense without Middleton is Giannis with the ball in his hands driving and getting to the rim or kicking out to shooters. The Celtics just showed they can credibly guard him with either Al or Grant one-on-one. That's bad for them.

Maybe Jrue can do a little more or they can try to pass around the perimeter but from where I sit I don't know what other options they have. Would be interested in seeing others' thoughts on the x and os adjustments Milwaukee might make
The Bucks adjust more during the course of a game than most anyone. To assume they will change nothing following a big loss is setting yourself up for failure. If I’m Ime (that sounds funny) I’d be preparing for the Bucks to force Jaylen out of his comfort zone, run a second defender at him off the dribble forcing him to pass the ball which is a hole in his game. I’d look for them to run the offense more through Lopez at the top of the circle forcing a big outside of the paint and to run more action with Holiday. I’m sure there are other things he’ll look to do that are above my pay grade as well.
 

RetractableRoof

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But how much of their season 3PA average is changed without Middleton? Both from his own 3 point shooting and creating open 3 point looks for teammates?
I think these two factors are about 1/2 the reason for the reduction in MIL shots attempted, and it will have a snowballing effect as the series wears on. I attribute the Celtics defense and preference for defending the 3 pointer as the other 1/2 of it. People are talking about Middleton being a big loss (especially with his additional length against the Cs), but his loss is specifically visible in these points (not dismissing his defense).

Any discussion of the MIL not shooting/attempting to season 3P averages that doesn't include these factors is just ignoring the 6.6 threes he attempts per game (and as you say opens up for teammates). The broadcast last night made a big deal about the MIL reduction of 3 pointers attempted from the season average of 38 (34 in playoffs) to G2's 18 per game (-20/game). 7 directly for Middleton, his gravity perhaps created/assisted another 3-4 for teammates (WAG), leaving the Cs defense impacting another 10-11 of their own.

Trying to calculate how MIL shooters will perform going forward has to include some consideration of Middleton's missing 7 3-pointers, 9 2-pointers (for a total of 20 ppg w/ 4+ FTA/game), right?

This is why it's critical in my mind to never sag off the corner 3s to help on Giannis. Let him drive as necessary (acknowledge the whistle, contest as much as possible without cheap fouls), minimizing GA's 11.4 FTA (8+ ppg FT made). Middleton's 20 points (plus assists) and any reduction in GA FT increases the pressure of every single 3 made by the Cs. Making up that deficit 2 points at a time is more daunting than if they are getting 3s from Allen/Connaughton. Obviously MIL packs the paint, daring teams to beat them with the 3. Continuing to minimize MIL 3s (while hitting a decent percentage of their own) will force MIL to loosen up in the paint to run out/contest BOS 3s (as the G2 first half demonstrated). Maybe this is all obvious, but in some ways MIL is already fighting uphill against their own philosophy down Middleton's points and gravity. I think the pure math favors the Cs (in the absence of a significant MIL adjustment) as long as the Cs don't have a G1 level bad 3PT shooting night. This series as currently being played comes down to a game of chicken between Ime and Bud... are the Cs going to attack the paint (and the teeth of the MIL defense) if BOS 3 PTs aren't falling, or is MIL going to unpack the paint because the 3s are falling at a high enough clip.
 

nighthob

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For all of the folks worried about the C's losing home court advantage, I would like to note something I brought up previously. The C's have actually been as good, if not better, on the road since the second half of the season started, then they have been at home. ... This team has been absolute fucking wagon on the road for months.
Wagon? They've been a Herkimer Battle Jitney tricked out with 30mm autocannons and trailing sharks with frickin' laser beams on their heads.
 

Kliq

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Mar 31, 2013
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I thought it was pretty telling with some of the comments Ime, Grant and Tatum have made about adjustments from Game 1 to Game 2. I think it was Grant who said that in Game 1, they were just launching threes at any moment, knowing that they had to shoot a lot of them because that was what Milwaukee was going to concede and they were happy to try and exploit that. In Game 2 they felt more adjusted to Milwaukee's unique defensive strategy and got much better shots by moving the ball and not settling for okay looks at the basket from three.

This is one of those things that happens in a playoff series vs the regular season. Milwaukee can roll into town on any given night in January and psyche teams out with their defense. Over the course of a playoff series, however the opponents like the Celtics are going to grow more comfortable attacking the defense and take smarter shots.
 

Saints Rest

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I forget the stats but the Cs weren't just good on the road in 2022, they were historically good. Let's hope that continues.
I think these two factors are about 1/2 the reason for the reduction in MIL shots attempted, and it will have a snowballing effect as the series wears on. I attribute the Celtics defense and preference for defending the 3 pointer as the other 1/2 of it. People are talking about Middleton being a big loss (especially with his additional length against the Cs), but his loss is specifically visible in these points (not dismissing his defense).

Any discussion of the MIL not shooting/attempting to season 3P averages that doesn't include these factors is just ignoring the 6.6 threes he attempts per game (and as you say opens up for teammates). The broadcast last night made a big deal about the MIL reduction of 3 pointers attempted from the season average of 38 (34 in playoffs) to G2's 18 per game (-20/game). 7 directly for Middleton, his gravity perhaps created/assisted another 3-4 for teammates (WAG), leaving the Cs defense impacting another 10-11 of their own.

Trying to calculate how MIL shooters will perform going forward has to include some consideration of Middleton's missing 7 3-pointers, 9 2-pointers (for a total of 20 ppg w/ 4+ FTA/game), right?

This is why it's critical in my mind to never sag off the corner 3s to help on Giannis. Let him drive as necessary (acknowledge the whistle, contest as much as possible without cheap fouls), minimizing GA's 11.4 FTA (8+ ppg FT made). Middleton's 20 points (plus assists) and any reduction in GA FT increases the pressure of every single 3 made by the Cs. Making up that deficit 2 points at a time is more daunting than if they are getting 3s from Allen/Connaughton. Obviously MIL packs the paint, daring teams to beat them with the 3. Continuing to minimize MIL 3s (while hitting a decent percentage of their own) will force MIL to loosen up in the paint to run out/contest BOS 3s (as the G2 first half demonstrated). Maybe this is all obvious, but in some ways MIL is already fighting uphill against their own philosophy down Middleton's points and gravity. I think the pure math favors the Cs (in the absence of a significant MIL adjustment) as long as the Cs don't have a G1 level bad 3PT shooting night. This series as currently being played comes down to a game of chicken between Ime and Bud... are the Cs going to attack the paint (and the teeth of the MIL defense) if BOS 3 PTs aren't falling, or is MIL going to unpack the paint because the 3s are falling at a high enough clip.
I wonder if the Celtics went into G1 with a strategy of "Don't Let Giannis Beat Us." In that game, GA took 28% of the Bucks 90 FGA and scored 24% of the Bucks 101 points.

In G2, perhaps the Celtics' defensive strategy became ""Don't Let the Other Guys Beat Us."In that game, GA took 37% of the Bucks 73 FGA and scored 33% of the Bucks 86 points.
 

RetractableRoof

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I wonder if the Celtics went into G1 with a strategy of "Don't Let Giannis Beat Us." In that game, GA took 28% of the Bucks 90 FGA and scored 24% of the Bucks 101 points.

In G2, perhaps the Celtics' defensive strategy became ""Don't Let the Other Guys Beat Us."In that game, GA took 37% of the Bucks 73 FGA and scored 33% of the Bucks 86 points.
You said that a hell of a lot more succinctly that I did... and I was trying... ugh.
 

Saints Rest

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Look at this, it's FGA, Bucks listed first:
  1. G1: 90 - 84 (so 174 FGA combined)
  2. G2: 73 - 80 (so only 153 FGA combined)
So 21 fewer FGA combined, but 17 fewer by the Bucks. Hmmm.

Looked at another way:
  1. G1: Total FGA by all Bucks not named Giannis = 65
  2. G2: Total FGA by all Bucks not named Giannis = 46
Clamps.
 

Auger34

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I wonder if the Celtics went into G1 with a strategy of "Don't Let Giannis Beat Us." In that game, GA took 28% of the Bucks 90 FGA and scored 24% of the Bucks 101 points.

In G2, perhaps the Celtics' defensive strategy became ""Don't Let the Other Guys Beat Us."In that game, GA took 37% of the Bucks 73 FGA and scored 33% of the Bucks 86 points.
In Game 2, especially in the first half, Giannis really settled a lot and honestly helped the Celtics out.
He was taking long jumpers that the Celtics were essentially giving him. They were open but, and this was DEFINITELY true last night, if he goes to the basket he’s either going to get the call or lay up.

I am guessing in Game 3, Giannis will be on the attack constantly. Hopefully the refs don’t allow him fo just bowl over people like they did last night
 

DavidTai

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I am guessing in Game 3, Giannis will be on the attack constantly. Hopefully the refs don’t allow him fo just bowl over people like they did last night
He might, but I have doubts he can constantly attack without running out of fuel, especially if he has to also defend a lot. It doesn't strike me as sustainable for an entire game.
 

Van Everyman

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Your Ime, Or Brad. And you have 30 seconds of mike time. What do you say to try to prevent or minimize the star treatment that GA is getting from the Refs?
When asked about the officials I say, “We don’t make excuses. We control what we can. We play hard.” And all the talking heads watch and then make the case for me.
 

Cellar-Door

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In Game 2, especially in the first half, Giannis really settled a lot and honestly helped the Celtics out.
He was taking long jumpers that the Celtics were essentially giving him. They were open but, and this was DEFINITELY true last night, if he goes to the basket he’s either going to get the call or lay up.

I am guessing in Game 3, Giannis will be on the attack constantly. Hopefully the refs don’t allow him fo just bowl over people like they did last night
Part of it was that he had difficulty with Horford and Grant, and had no passes to make, where game 1 they doubled and he found the open man. I do think early he was worried about getting called for charges... then in the 2nd he realized he wouldn't, or at least not enough to matter.

I will say he looked gassed before the million hour reviews started. He has to do a lot on offense, and all that contact wears on him too, and on D he has to fly all over the place helping everyone, closing out, etc.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Look at this, it's FGA, Bucks listed first:
  1. G1: 90 - 84 (so 174 FGA combined)
  2. G2: 73 - 80 (so only 153 FGA combined)
So 21 fewer FGA combined, but 17 fewer by the Bucks. Hmmm.

Looked at another way:
  1. G1: Total FGA by all Bucks not named Giannis = 65
  2. G2: Total FGA by all Bucks not named Giannis = 46
Clamps.
I think a lot of the increased shot attempts in G1 were BOS TOs.
 

Red Averages

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Agreed. If the C's don't turn the ball over we'll be happy with plenty of open 3pt attempts that Mil willingly gives up.

Not sure why people are so concerned with the # of 3pt shots vs 2pt shots. It's a NBA media driven red herring
You can shoot 33% from 3 every possession or shoot 50% from 2 and have the same amount of points. Getting 3 point shots is good. Getting quality 3 point shots is a gift. Hitting your quality shots in volume leads to blowouts. It’s really not complicated.

The key is not giving up long rebounds and turnovers given how suffocating the Celtics half court defense is.