Celtics vs. Bucks, Round 2 Discussion

Who you got?

  • Celts in 4

    Votes: 7 3.3%
  • Celts in 5

    Votes: 69 32.5%
  • Celts in 6

    Votes: 106 50.0%
  • Celts in 7

    Votes: 25 11.8%
  • Bucks in 4

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bucks in 5

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bucks in 6

    Votes: 3 1.4%
  • Bucks in 7

    Votes: 2 0.9%

  • Total voters
    212
  • Poll closed .

Red Averages

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Honestly, this feels like an easier matchup for the Celtics than the Nets and I expect the Vegas odds will reflect that (Celts were -130 vs BKN). That nets series could have gone 5 if game 1 played out a bit differently in the closing seconds. This series should not go beyond 5 barring injury. I see exploitable matchup issues all over, a Celtics team that will be fresh and with home court advantage.
 

TripleOT

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Boston in 5.

The season series was 2-2, with no games with both teams at full strength. Boston beat the Bucks early, sans Giannis, Lopez, and Middleton, at home in OT, and rolled them in the Garden rematch without Lopez, pre-White/Theis. The Bucis won at home by 4 on Xmas, no AL or Lopez, and the Celtics were also without a ball pounding, shock of blond hair hilighted, quasi-PG whose name escapes me. The big game to determine the opportunity for the Bucks to avoid the Nets in the playoffs was eked out by the Bucks at full strength, with the Celtics missing Tatum, AL, and TL.

With the Bucks missing Middleton to start the series, I don’t see how they have enough firepower to stay with the Celtics, who have enough offense to beat the Milwaukee defense.
 

Cellar-Door

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Can PP get playing time against the Bucks? They seem really big, but I’m not sure if they have many who can hunt him.
But I’m no Buck expert
They'll try to hunt him with Giannis, and if they put him on a big like against BKN Lopez or Portis will take him right to the post and their guards will go to it.
On the other hand, if Middleton is out, they can get him matched up with units that feature Carter and/or Matthews. Might be a case that he could not get destroyed by COnnaghton and Allen too.
As long as Giannis isn't out there, or you can keep him out of switches he can probably play some.
 

lars10

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If you ever watched Grayson Allen play for Duke, you shouldn't need to develop a dislike for him. It should be deep seated and ready to come out.
Lopez is the worst because he complains all game... Gianis is annoying because he runs into people similar to the way LeBron used to and gets foul calls all game.. that and all the Euro step/travels. Grayson should get majorly exposed in this series... after seeing him at Duke (as a UNC fan) that would be enjoyable. Pat Connaughton is also a bit annoying. Not sure if the Bucks have any Dragic types though.
 

Saints Rest

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I seem to recall that Semi was "The Giannis Stopper." My recollection is because A) he was phenomenally strong, and B) he moved his feet really well. It seems to me that we've always known that GrantWill has phenomenal strength, but in this recent series, we saw some outstanding footwork in covering KD. (He also seemed to show tremendous discipline of late with his hands, keeping them out or up and not reaching in, which seems to help his stay away from fouls. Theis could learn a lot from that.)
 

radsoxfan

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Looks like game 1 is at 1 pm Sunday in Boston (assuming Bucks series doesn't go 7 games).

Let's get healthy, but hopefully not rusty.
 

The Raccoon

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If you ever watched Grayson Allen play for Duke, you shouldn't need to develop a dislike for him. It should be deep seated and ready to come out.
No need to go back to to his Duke time. Let's remember what he did in Summer League:
"Just get him out of this game!"
 

Eddie Jurak

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Will this me a more straightforward defensive series for Boston than the Nets?

Giannis is great, but he shoots below 30% from three for his career, and this past year, and in the playoffs. So you don't necessarily want to double him and you can go under picks and let him shoot, play drop coverage, whatever. Maybe you even "let him get his" points and try to limit what other players do. The main focus is avoiding getting him matched against guys he can destroy one on one - Pritchard for example. Match a range of different guys on him: - Smart, Tatum, Brown, Horford, Rob - just to keep the looks varied.
 

Ed Hillel

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I guess we’re rooting for the Bucks tonight at this point. Let’s start this series as soon as possible with Middleton healing.
 

tbrown_01923

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re: letting "Gianis get his" - i think you need to throw some resistence at him and make it challenging to get all the way tot he rim. He is so long, that without a double or forcing to help that he can be a layup factory. They do have bodies that have played him well in the past, and DW and MS are great in drawing charges, so maybe a couple of those gets gianis gunning...

They also match up favorably with their bigs... would ove it if they would camp brook. in the corner and allow RW to kind of cover him there. RW helping from the top of the key hasn't been as effective. Bobby Portis has been really good against Chicago - but I think the C's are tougher match for him too.

I do wonder if either MS or DW will get under grayson allens skin. Not that that can be a strategy to exploit for a win, but it is something I am curious to keep an eye on.
 

Eddie Jurak

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re: letting "Gianis get his" - i think you need to throw some resistence at him and make it challenging to get all the way tot he rim. He is so long, that without a double or forcing to help that he can be a layup factory. They do have bodies that have played him well in the past, and DW and MS are great in drawing charges, so maybe a couple of those gets gianis gunning...

They also match up favorably with their bigs... would ove it if they would camp brook. in the corner and allow RW to kind of cover him there. RW helping from the top of the key hasn't been as effective. Bobby Portis has been really good against Chicago - but I think the C's are tougher match for him too.

I do wonder if either MS or DW will get under grayson allens skin. Not that that can be a strategy to exploit for a win, but it is something I am curious to keep an eye on.
I agree. I mean, "let him get his" is simplistic. They need to double him on occation just to have him thinking about that. They need to defend him one on one, making him work, and without picking up a shit ton of fouls.
 

ehaz

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I think Boston is better but I don't agree with those saying this is a much better match-up than the Nets (even without Middleton for a few games). The Bucks role players are much better and they don't have to sacrifice size and defense for shooting and spacing. Jrue and Giannis are all NBA defense type players, Portis and Lopez are huge and can shoot. Grayson/Connaughton/Matthews may be more exploitable but they're not Curry/Mills small and it's not like they Bucks will need to put them all on the floor at the same time like Brooklyn had to with the Irving/Curry/Mills lineups.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think Boston is better but I don't agree with those saying this is a much better match-up than the Nets (even without Middleton for a few games). The Bucks role players are much better and they don't have to sacrifice size and defense for shooting and spacing. Jrue and Giannis are all NBA defense type players, Portis and Lopez are huge and can shoot. Grayson/Connaughton/Matthews may be more exploitable but they're not Curry/Mills small and it's not like they Bucks will need to put them all on the floor at the same time like Brooklyn had to with the Irving/Curry/Mills lineups.
It is a more normal matchup, not an easier one. Overall, Milwaukee is still the better team than Brooklyn.
 

nighthob

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I think Boston is better but I don't agree with those saying this is a much better match-up than the Nets (even without Middleton for a few games). The Bucks role players are much better and they don't have to sacrifice size and defense for shooting and spacing. Jrue and Giannis are all NBA defense type players, Portis and Lopez are huge and can shoot. Grayson/Connaughton/Matthews may be more exploitable but they're not Curry/Mills small and it's not like they Bucks will need to put them all on the floor at the same time like Brooklyn had to with the Irving/Curry/Mills lineups.
I was under the impression that it was a better matchup because Middleton was out. If Middleton were healthy I don't think anyone would give Boston a chance. (Because, seriously, that bastard must average 38 p/g against Boston.)
 

Euclis20

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Marcus will have his hands full with Jrue.

Bucks starting lineup is massive.
GA, Lopez, Portis, Jrue, Matthews

Bench rotation: Pat C, Grayson, Carter
I did not realize that they were starting Portis with Middleton out, that is indeed a giant front court.

It is a more normal matchup, not an easier one. Overall, Milwaukee is still the better team than Brooklyn.
I agree, but it's interesting to note that one of the strange things about matching up with Brooklyn was that their entire rotation seemed to be shorter than 6'5 (Brown, Dragic, Curry, Mills, Kyrie) or taller than 6'9 (Drummond, Durant, Claxton). Griffin (6'9) was the only exception and he played just 25 minutes, the Nets had no typically sized wings. With Middleton out, the Bucks are in a strangely similar position - Connaughton is the only playoff rotation player between 6'5 and 6'9.
 

chilidawg

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Bucks by the numbers:

Excellent shooting team, 5th in the league in 3pt%, 8th in 2pt%. ORating was 3rd overall.
Average defensive team, 14th in DRating, 19th in efg%, 27th in TO forced. 3rd in defensive rebounding though.

Individually, by Raptor and Lebron

GA 8.0, 6.5
Jrue 5.5, 3.3
Portis 2.0, 1.1
Middleton 1.9, 1.6
Allen 0.6, -0.2
Connaughton 0.6, -0.5
Hill 0.8, -0.7
Lopez NA, 0.5
Carter -3.3, -2.0
Matthews 1.3, -1.8

C's by comparison

Tatum 6.7, 5.1
Horford 3.7, 4.1
Smart 3.4, 2.0
Brown 2.9, 1.6
White 3.7, 0.9
RW 3.8, 2.0
PP 0.8, -0.1
GW -0.9, -1.8
Theis -2.9, -1.1

So, if you're ranking players??

GA

Tatum

Holiday

Brown
Smart
Horford
Middleton
RW
Portis
White

Allen
Connaughton
GW
PP
Matthews
Hill
Lopez
Theis

Carter

Big question for me, is Milwaukee's regular season defense indicative of who they are, or do they have another gear they're saving for the playoffs? Nets tried hard to ramp it up but the C's still put up a 122 Orating in the playoffs on them.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Just to clarify... if Chicago were to somehow end up defeating Milwaukee, would than mean Boston gets the Philly/Toronto winner?
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Just to clarify... if Chicago were to somehow end up defeating Milwaukee, would than mean Boston gets the Philly/Toronto winner?
The bracket is fixed and no re-seeding, so they get Chicago on that hypothetical. It’s more like the NCAA tournament than the NFL playoffs in that sense.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The bracket is fixed and no re-seeding, so they get Chicago on that hypothetical. It’s more like the NCAA tournament than the NFL playoffs in that sense.
Thanks. I wish the NBA would go to the "choose your opponent" system. #1 seed gets to pick which ever opponent they want, #2 chooses theirs from whomever is left, etc.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I seem to recall that Semi was "The Giannis Stopper." My recollection is because A) he was phenomenally strong, and B) he moved his feet really well. It seems to me that we've always known that GrantWill has phenomenal strength, but in this recent series, we saw some outstanding footwork in covering KD. (He also seemed to show tremendous discipline of late with his hands, keeping them out or up and not reaching in, which seems to help his stay away from fouls. Theis could learn a lot from that.)
Wasn't this really just based off 1 game and more of a myth than anything? Giannis will get his. Middleton has destroyed the Celtics in the past so him being out would be a huge boon.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Honestly, this feels like an easier matchup for the Celtics than the Nets and I expect the Vegas odds will reflect that (Celts were -130 vs BKN). That nets series could have gone 5 if game 1 played out a bit differently in the closing seconds. This series should not go beyond 5 barring injury. I see exploitable matchup issues all over, a Celtics team that will be fresh and with home court advantage.
It is a more normal matchup, not an easier one. Overall, Milwaukee is still the better team than Brooklyn.
It’s a strange comparison bc the market always priced the Nets as if they had Simmons in mid-season form and being a fit. I expect the Celtics to be significant favorites of -180 or so but that’s really what I expected it to be with the Nets too (and it wasn’t). I expected both to be Celtics wins with no Middleton. Not having him changes a lot.
 

djbayko

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There will always be excuses.
And no one remembers or cares about injuries. No one is crying about teams having illegitimate championships due to Celtics being injured in the past. Injuries are just a fact of life in the playoffs. I'll take no Middleton, thank you very much.
 

ehaz

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Middleton news not that surprising. If I recall, when he was injured they said he’d be “re-assessed” in two weeks. People got it in their heads that he’d be back in two weeks but assuming this is at least a grade 2 sprain it would usually mean you’re out about 4 weeks.
 

Euclis20

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I want Middleton to play just so there are zero excuses when the Celtics win.
I doubt the Bucks and their fans care that they beat Brooklyn last year with kyrie and Harden both missing about half the series to injury. There are always excuses, and the winners never have to give a shit.
 

jablo1312

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injuries happen every year, overcoming them provides some pretty memorable stories for teams (celts almost doing it w/ no rebounding in LA, durant last year, lebron and wade w/o bosh for almost a month in 2012), giannis has a chance now here too
 

lovegtm

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I want Middleton to play just so there are zero excuses when the Celtics win.
Just like when Milwaukee voluntarily forfeited their championship last year because Kyrie and Harden got hurt. It was a truly stunning display of sportsmanship and an example to us all.

edit: Euclis20 beat me to it