Celtics vs. Bucks, Round 2 Discussion
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What’s more interesting is that 538 regards this series as almost a de facto ECF. Combined odds of Celtics and Bucks to make the finals is 75%.
Which basically means whoever comes out of this is the favorite by the same odds as the Celtics here.
Vegas has the Celtics as ~67% favorites in this series last time I checked.
Vegas has the Celtics as ~67% favorites in this series last time I checked.
I voted for Celtics in 6. Much like the Brooklyn series, the fear here is that Milwaukee has one incredible player who threatens to just destroy the Celtics, and you can never rule that out from happening. Giannis poses a unique defensive challenge to the Celtics, and there is a possibility he just mashes the Celtics into oblivion with a string of legendary performances. He's that good.
The Celtics are better equipped to stop Giannis than any other team in basketball, between their intelligent team defense and combination of long athletes that can make it as difficult as possible to prevent Giannis from getting to the rim. If Giannis beats the Celtics, the Bucks will almost assuredly win the title again because there really is no stopping him, just like there was no stopping prime Shaq.
With Middleton out, the Bucks are going to be relying on a lot of role players to make shots in this series. Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, Wes Matthews, etc. That group won't be as defensively challenged as Brooklyn, but they are less intimidating to me than the Seth Curry/Goran Dragic/Patty Mills group on offense. Those guys will NEED to hit shots with Middleton out. Portis and Lopez are a solid C group that can offer different looks depending on if they want to play big, or play small.
I think the Celtics win because I don't see Milwaukee's supporting cast hitting enough shots to beat a Celtics team this locked-in. Particularly when Giannis sits; I'm not sure where the offense is going to come from. Giannis will shoulder an enormous burden on both ends of the floor, and hopefully like with Durant, the Celtics army of strong athletes will wear him down just enough to get the key results they want on offense and on defense.
The Celtics are better equipped to stop Giannis than any other team in basketball, between their intelligent team defense and combination of long athletes that can make it as difficult as possible to prevent Giannis from getting to the rim. If Giannis beats the Celtics, the Bucks will almost assuredly win the title again because there really is no stopping him, just like there was no stopping prime Shaq.
With Middleton out, the Bucks are going to be relying on a lot of role players to make shots in this series. Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, Wes Matthews, etc. That group won't be as defensively challenged as Brooklyn, but they are less intimidating to me than the Seth Curry/Goran Dragic/Patty Mills group on offense. Those guys will NEED to hit shots with Middleton out. Portis and Lopez are a solid C group that can offer different looks depending on if they want to play big, or play small.
I think the Celtics win because I don't see Milwaukee's supporting cast hitting enough shots to beat a Celtics team this locked-in. Particularly when Giannis sits; I'm not sure where the offense is going to come from. Giannis will shoulder an enormous burden on both ends of the floor, and hopefully like with Durant, the Celtics army of strong athletes will wear him down just enough to get the key results they want on offense and on defense.
I'm going to seriously have issues with an entire series of watching Giannis put his shoulder down and treat defenders like bowling pins, while parading to the free throw line. I like Giannis a lot, but man, I hate his game with the fire of a thousand suns. There's a good chance Marcus or White or Grant get fouled out than Giannis getting called for the half dozen charges he commits each quarter. He got hit with an early offensive foul last night, and the next 3 times that the defender was clearly in position, defensive foul, leading Chicago to blow their challenge in the 2nd quarter because it was so damn obvious (and Giannis made the bucket so they were looking at 3 point play). Not overturned.
you have to show results on the poll
It was interesting seeing many "other NBA fans" picking the Nets to knock off the Celtics
What makes Milwaukee a tougher matchup than the Nets is that Giannis and Holiday are tough, physical players who defend well. Durant and Irving are highly skilled, but certainly not physical. Portis is an underrated player in my mind, giving them a mobile big who can stretch the floor and play some tough D.
White and Smart have great "charge reputations" so while Horford/Grant take turns guarding Giannis, DW/MS will be waiting for him in the lane. With TL swatting. We could see a very flummoxed Giannis
Celtics in 5, losing Middleton is too much to lose.
The C's Achilles heel is 3pt shooting and the Bucks will let them fire at will. The C's will need to shoot better from there then in the Nets series
we should all be able to see who everyone votes for, I guess that probably only happens after the poll gets locked and the series starts
It's a poll option that I didn't select when creating the poll, I didn't realize people care who specifically votes for which option. Unfortunately I can't edit it now.
I wouldn't assume Middleton is 100% out the entire series, a lot can happen in a couple weeks.
In general, these "grade 2" sprains encompass a pretty wide range of severity. The Grade 1-2-3 system is a fine way to stratify for most, but in truth you could easily break them up 1-5 or even 1-10 from minor stretching though completely torn/retracted.
A grade 2 injury could be 2-6 weeks depending on where it falls, perhaps Middleton's is on the higher end of the "grade 2". The ligament doesn't need to be "fully healed" to return, though in basketball its tougher to come back early given how much cutting is involved.
I've seen NFL guys come back in a week or two from pretty bad grade 2 sprains, but less often RB/WR/CB types.
In general, these "grade 2" sprains encompass a pretty wide range of severity. The Grade 1-2-3 system is a fine way to stratify for most, but in truth you could easily break them up 1-5 or even 1-10 from minor stretching though completely torn/retracted.
A grade 2 injury could be 2-6 weeks depending on where it falls, perhaps Middleton's is on the higher end of the "grade 2". The ligament doesn't need to be "fully healed" to return, though in basketball its tougher to come back early given how much cutting is involved.
I've seen NFL guys come back in a week or two from pretty bad grade 2 sprains, but less often RB/WR/CB types.
Who is going to be the primary defender of Giannis? I presume Al will start on him, acknowledging it will be a team effort. I am concerned that if Grant is going play big minutes guarding GA, he will get in serious foul trouble, which would have the double whammy effect of taking one of our best and most versatile defenders and one of our most effective 3 point shooters off the court. Grant has become a pretty valuable piece, and if he's in constant foul trouble, could have a cascading effect on our effectiveness.
Wow. I have not followed the non-Celtics NBA closely this season but those stats/ranks are nuts.
Someone said it in a game thread a while back but, my goodness is having playoff games to look forward to as a fan one of life's greatest treats. Especially with your team looking like this C's squad.
If the Cs can keep MIL out of transition - i.e., they don't miss a ton of shots and keep their TOs down - I agree that Giannis will be flummoxed. Without Middleton as an offensive threat, MIL just doesn't have enough players who can create in the half-court so I would expect BOS to be able to shut down MIL with their set defense.
As you said, however, MIL's drop defense invite 3P shots. If BOS isn't hitting those, there's going to be a lot of Giannis transition basket replays to watch.
I don't think there will be a primary defender of Giannis as the Cs will switch off a lot.
I think Al will be on Lopez as Lopez will be drifting out by the 3P line. I also think MIL will ask Lopez to post up TL if they ever get matched-up so starting Horford on Lopez will minimize that.
If MIL's starting line-up is Lopez / Giannis / Portis / Matthews / Holiday, I think BOS will start TL on Matthews to keep TL closest to the basket (Matthews will be parked in the corner). That means Horford on Lopez, JT/JB on Portis and Giannis. I think JB will start on Giannis.
A healthy Celts playing as they have should win this series against a Middleton missing Bucks, in 5 or 6.
Went with the Road Warriors in 6.
Went with the Road Warriors in 6.
Not exactly breaking news, but boy do those numbers emphasize how critical it will be for Bucks to run especially with Middleton out. They are really, really going to depend on getting those break-outs.
Thus, Celts having their customary success limiting turnovers and staying competitive on the boards will be key to watch
Thus, Celts having their customary success limiting turnovers and staying competitive on the boards will be key to watch
Yeah the Bucks aren't a good defense, they're a team that gives up a lot of good looks and hopes you miss.
Now the Celtics' biggest weakness on offense is the somewhat dodgy outside shooting of Smart, Theis, White, etc... so it might not be a great matchup.
Now the Celtics' biggest weakness on offense is the somewhat dodgy outside shooting of Smart, Theis, White, etc... so it might not be a great matchup.
The Bucks haven't really felt it yet, mainly because Allen set two playoff career highs in Games 3 and 4, but this quote from Eric Nets (Bucks beat writer) in The Athletic really shows how incredibly valuable Middleton is: "Middleton was one of 17 NBA players to average at least 20 points, five rebounds and five assists per game. Only 44 percent of his makes were assisted this season, which means not only was he putting up big numbers, he was the one creating the shots."
Yup, anyone that watched the Bucks success last season in crunch time will have seen just how valuable Middleton is. He isn't just a sidekick to Giannis; he is their go-to guy in crunch time because of his ability to create his own shot, and in particular, make difficult shots against good defense. He can do some things that Giannis can't do, and without him Milwaukee will be lost in certain scenarios.
a rough guess would be a lot of Horford/Grant. With some Jaylen, Smart, TL, Theis mixed in. I'm really keeping Tatum away from him, he's by far the C's most important player, and don't want JT expending too much effort guarding Giannis.
We have the horses to make the Greek freak-out
I agree 100%. And KM's ability to do those things is magnified against the Celtics, since -- as someone else noted upthread -- he seems to average about 38ppg against Boston. (Sidenote: I wonder if certain players doing especially well against certain teams, regardless of sport, is a real thing or just a fallacy like "clutch.")
To me, this would normally be a fascinating matchup because:
- Top 5 player: GA -- JT
- Top 25-ish scorer/sidekick: KM -- JB
- Ace defender/PG: JH -- MS
Brad would stick Kemba on Lopez on the perimeter. I'm not expecting IME to waste Al's skills on Brook Lopez camping out on the perimeter.
Brook and Wes Matthews are their least impactful offensive threats, so we may see the JAYs guard them to save their legs for offense.
IME can use Al/Theis/TL/Grant to slow down Giannis/Portis with Smart/White locking up Jrue.
Obviously, in transition, it's all hands on deck for the Giannis bull run.
Just call 1 - 800 - ABA YNES to hold the nail
from the Athletic
The Celtics have plenty of bodies to throw at Antetokounmpo. They switch frequently and should give him all sorts of looks. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, Daniel Theis and Grant Williams have all spent time on Antetokounmpo in the past. Still, Horford has typically drawn the assignment first. He only played one game against Antetokounmpo this season, but the Celtics held the two-time MVP to 20 points, eight rebounds and three assists during that game. Horford played 30 of his 34 minutes that day while Antetokounmpo was on the court and finished a plus-25 for the game. According to NBA.com’s matchup data, Horford averaged more time guarding Antetokounmpo this season than he did against any other player.
https://theathletic.com/3276833/2022/04/27/celtics-al-horford-giannis-bucks/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983
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From today's Athletic:
He (Horford) only played one game against Antetokounmpo this season, but the Celtics held the two-time MVP to 20 points, eight rebounds and three assists during that game. Horford played 30 of his 34 minutes that day while Antetokounmpo was on the court and finished a plus-25 for the game. According to NBA.com’s matchup data, Horford averaged more time guarding Antetokounmpo this season than he did against any other player.
He (Horford) only played one game against Antetokounmpo this season, but the Celtics held the two-time MVP to 20 points, eight rebounds and three assists during that game. Horford played 30 of his 34 minutes that day while Antetokounmpo was on the court and finished a plus-25 for the game. According to NBA.com’s matchup data, Horford averaged more time guarding Antetokounmpo this season than he did against any other player.
On T&R this morning, one of them cited a metric (wasn't clear which) that ranked the Bucks ahead of the Cs in defense during Round 1. I guess it's possible that not facing Kevin Durant helped...
Without even looking beyond score lines, I would expect most d metrics to say the Bucks were better in round 1 since the Bulls scored 100 or less in every game but one.
Of course, playing a dead Bulls team instead of a Nets team whose shooting was insane for the series along with KD, Kyrie probably makes the Bucks look a lot better than they were.
I believe they do, and we also need to remember that Lopez missed most of the season, and he’s probably their 3rd most important defender.
View: https://twitter.com/keithsmithnba/status/1519726320334393344
Per Udoka, Jaylen's hamstring could cause issues this series, but he is expected to play in game 1. Sounds like he'll be at least somewhat hobbled. Not great.
Per Udoka, Jaylen's hamstring could cause issues this series, but he is expected to play in game 1. Sounds like he'll be at least somewhat hobbled. Not great.
Now even with that said, the loss of Tucker, and now Middleton? They are a much less versatile defense, and a lot easier to spread out. Tatum has lit them up the last couple of years, as he tends to do against drop coverage big men, and Jaylen/Smart have both been very good as well. It’ll come down to if we hit our threes or not, and limiting turnovers. Here’s the numbers for those three against the Bucks the last couple of years.
Jaylen
Last year: 25/7/3 on a 65% TS. (46% from three)
This year: 22/6/6 on a 56% TS. (32% from three)
Tatum
Last year: 27/7/5 on a 60% TS. (42% from three)
This year: 31/8/3 on a 61% TS. (44% from three)
Smart
Last year: 13/4/5 on a 55% TS. (41% from three)
This year: 17/4/8 on a 65% TS. (40% from three)
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Yeah, I agree.
Just looking at Raptor defensive numbers... they are a far above average defensive team. Their entire rotation is good, and while subbing out Middleton minutes of course hurts overall, it won't hurt them on D.
Lopez (+2.9)
Giannis (+2.4)
Matthews (+2.2)
Jrue (+1.4)
Portis (+0.7)
Connaughton (+0.4)
Allen (-0.2)
Middleton (-0.2)
I don’t understand, is he hurt or not? How do you “manage” a hamstring injury?
I'm still a little unclear on this injury. Has anyone with the Celtics called it a "strain" or "grade 1 strain"? Or is it just a little sore?
I haven't heard if he got an MRI, but I assume the MRI was probably normal (if it was done) if they expecting him to play game 1.
That's the confusing part. Only makes sense if it's just a bit sore/tight but he got an MRI that was normal. Maybe he did and I missed that report.
And surely the Bucks know how all about flipping switches since they were tasked with having go through the 18/19 Kyrie "just wait until playoffs" Irving-lead celtics team.
Now that I've gotten my Kyrie-shade content out for the day, are there recent examples of teams going from middle of the pack on D in regular season to top level D in playoffs? Im also wondering if guys like Giannis/Holiday having to shoulder a tad more offensive load without Middleton ends up affecting them on the defensive end over a long series.
What would that be, lactic acid? How do you have a sore hamstring for a week that could impact your play and a clean MRI?
He didn’t mention whether Brown got an MRI, he just described the injury as ‘tightness.’
View: https://twitter.com/keithsmithnba/status/1519724609507106822?s=21&t=eigUsDNJpGsShBRpFFoaww
Sure, people get muscle soreness/tightness all the time, they don't always have an abnormal MRI.
See "Grade 0" injuries in this article. https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/48/18/1347
Also, as I alluded to with the Middleton MCL ligament sprain, you really could subcategorize these muscle strains beyond grade 1-2-3. So if he's got a "mild grade 1" injury on MRI (some very faint imflammation in the muscle without tendon involvement), they may feel it won't put him at any risk of additional injury beyond the typical risk any NBA player takes. In that case it's more symptom management.
A week at his age, with professional care at his disposal, just seems like a long time for tightness and no injury. Maybe it’s normal. Or maybe he ends up with the nickname “Jay D,” you’ll get your professional excellent production 75% of every year.
Also, kinda strange how Ime is always completely transparent about injuries. I’m not sure this is exactly the type of thing you want to advertise?
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It's a hamstring injury, not broken ribs or a shoulder contusion. What could an opponent do to exacerbate a hamstring injury? Make him jump a lot? Run fast?
Hamstring tightness has always been a Jaylen thing and its reared its head in the playoffs before
Go at him directly one on one on offense? Which they might try to avoid, given his status as an elite defender.
I think Horford and Tatum will spend the most time on him as they are probably the two best defenders to use on him. Others will spend time too (Grant, Smart, Theis, Jaylen), but probably a lot less. Jaylen is the worst defender among the starters and, especially with his injury, the guy we likely try to hide from this assignment the most. I’d expect us to camp Jaylen on less dangerous offensive players as part of the managing of his hamstring Ime has spoken about. Smart and Grant are both very equal to defending Giannis in short bursts and White probably is too.
For those worried about Tatum’s energy, he just locked up KD for a series while leading the team on offense. He can do both, especially since he’ll draw Giannis a lot less given how well Horford has defended him historically.
Miami didn’t beat this squad in a playoff series. We just need to get over the Kemba Walker years.
Trying really hard gets you a lot of regular season wins, but it’s the nature of the beast. The regular season, for playoff teams, is about getting ready for the postseason. So during the regular season teams concentrate on playing their own game, and not as much as addressing themselves opponent to opponent. Once the playoffs start it’s about killing your opponents.
When people talk about an extra gear, that’s what they’re talking about. The ability to execute and execute specific teams. And trying really hard has less of an impact. But Miami will make Boston work for it, no doubt.