Celtics Trade Timelord, Brogdon, and picks for Jrue Holiday

m0ckduck

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DARKO has him as valuable as Dame, to start. RAPTOR has him as nearly as good. I just don't see him as a top 10-15 player. He has been objectively awful in the playoffs. He got totally cooked against the Heat last year. His defense is clearly in decline.

He's good, but not two first round picks, a good starter, and the 6moy winner in a trade good.
Holiday's career trajectory by DARKO is almost unbelievable. He was the highest ranking guard last year (just ahead of Curry).

Hard to argue with the results:

View attachment 71921
There's so much variance to how Holiday is ranked as a player, it doesn't surprise me the lack of consensus around this trade. Advanced stats have him as a top 15 guy or better, but most informal rankings have him in the mid-high 30s. If you buy the top-15-to-20 framing, then you make this trade every time: the commodity of top-tier talents who don't demand top billing is incredibly scarce, and adding one of them to your two-star nucleus is the best thing you can possibly do to improve your roster.

I've tended to see Holiday more like a 10-15% upgrade on Marcus Smart, and at that valuation, he's not worth two rotation players and two picks. But I'm happily poised to be proven wrong.

One thing I do really like about the trade is that, while I was as happy as everyone else to witness White's emergence last season, it felt we were being hasty in pencilling him in as starting PG for a championship team. I could easily see him struggling / regressing a bit under those expectations, and that scenario + grumpy/injured Brogdon would leave us very thin in the backcourt and fragile in the leadership-and-toughness department. Now, the C's have easily the best guards + wings situation in the league, not only in terms of talent but also makeup.
 
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lovegtm

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Right the worst case scenario is that we lost the deal by a little bit, while getting the best player in the deal regardless. There's definitely a nonzero chance of that, but the probability distribution of TimeLord's outcomes means we're probably 80% or more to have won the trade in the long run. And yeah, I agree, I'd rather have him than Lillard, both for personality and for skills fit. His defense is force-multiplied on this team.

I'm also thinking about where Rob will go, assuming Portland would rather keep Ayton. Miami, Philly, Denver and LAL have well-established centers, where Rob would only be a backup even if fully healthy. But Milwaukee will need a Brook Lopez replacement at some point, who is 35 and signed through next season, and who played all of last season but missed almost all of the previous one. Their only Center on the team besides the Lopez brothers is a guy who hasn't played in 2 years. So they could really, really use a healthy Rob Williams, not least because they have the personnel to use him the way Boston used him, playing off a weak-shooting big so he can poach some rim protection, and rotating to cover him if need be. So let's hope that's not where he ends up.
Fortunately, Milwaukee has no draft assets left to trade, and not really any interesting young players either.

Somewhere like Dallas would make a lot of sense for Rob, but they might be hesitant to spend the (iirc) one first they have left to deal.
 

slamminsammya

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Once his 3-point shot is falling: TRUE HOLIDAY!

On the road when he commits a bad foul: BOO HOLIDAY!

Gets in a car accident because Boston drivers: SUE HOLIDAY!

New sponsorship with Milk Council: MOO HOLIDAY!

Fixes a lighting issue in the arena: CREW HOLIDAY!

Buys into a local beer distributor...
the rhyming thing is blinding you to the most obvious basketball one which is bank holiday
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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At the very least, I believe these recent transactions have put to bed any Cinderella runs in the eastern conference. Celtics-Bucks ECF or bust, unless there is a cluster of injuries. The 76ers and Heat should just draft one team between their rosters, which the Heat may actually try to do if Embiid ends up shooting his way out in the near future. (Although it would happen over embedded Celtic Daryl Morey's dead body.)

Teams like the Knicks and Cavs will be nice and could even put together an impressive regular season record (for them), but I just don't see a great counter to the top 2 at playoff time.
 

InstaFace

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the NBA landscape is always shifting under a fan's feet. It wouldn't take much for, say, Donovan Mitchell to decide he wants to join a winner, and goes to NYK or LAL or god forbid Miami, all of whom would get huge value from him, for our calculations to shift yet again.
 

InstaFace

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Fortunately, Milwaukee has no draft assets left to trade, and not really any interesting young players either.

Somewhere like Dallas would make a lot of sense for Rob, but they might be hesitant to spend the (iirc) one first they have left to deal.
Wow you're not kidding, Milwaukee has one fully tradeable draft pick right now - their 2027 2nd. They've traded their 2025 1st, which means they can't trade out from 2024 and 2026 entirely, and they owe swaps on both of those first rounders to NOP (which will probably expire unused, it's true) - so at best they can trade an encumbered, subordinate swap right, so if they trade with (say) POR it would be "NOP to get the most favorable of MIL and NOP, then POR to get the most favorable of the two that are left, aka swap rights with the lesser of NOP/MIL", which is very unlikely to be of meaningful value. Maybe if you bet that Giannis is gone by 2026. And then they've traded their 2027 (to NOP) and 2029 (to POR), plus simple swap-right on their 2030 plus a more complicated swap right on their 2028... so again, they could trade an encumbered / subordinate swap right on 2028 and 2030, but that is likely of low value to anyone (and of zero value to POR, who are already the senior swap-holder, so no reason for them to buy that to get Rob).

So yeah he's not going to Milwaukee, except as a FA after the 2025-26 season. I wonder if there's anywhere he could get traded to where he'd be a threat to our team. Probably not, then.
 

Spelunker

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Wow you're not kidding, Milwaukee has one fully tradeable draft pick right now - their 2027 2nd. They've traded their 2025 1st, which means they can't trade out from 2024 and 2026 entirely, and they owe swaps on both of those first rounders to NOP (which will probably expire unused, it's true) - so at best they can trade an encumbered, subordinate swap right, so if they trade with (say) POR it would be "NOP to get the most favorable of MIL and NOP, then POR to get the most favorable of the two that are left, aka swap rights with the lesser of NOP/MIL", which is very unlikely to be of meaningful value. Maybe if you bet that Giannis is gone by 2026. And then they've traded their 2027 (to NOP) and 2029 (to POR), plus simple swap-right on their 2030 plus a more complicated swap right on their 2028... so again, they could trade an encumbered / subordinate swap right on 2028 and 2030, but that is likely of low value to anyone (and of zero value to POR, who are already the senior swap-holder, so no reason for them to buy that to get Rob).

So yeah he's not going to Milwaukee, except as a FA after the 2025-26 season. I wonder if there's anywhere he could get traded to where he'd be a threat to our team. Probably not, then.
Brad being BRAD, I'm sure he gamed out those possibilities.
 

Jimbodandy

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the NBA landscape is always shifting under a fan's feet. It wouldn't take much for, say, Donovan Mitchell to decide he wants to join a winner, and goes to NYK or LAL or god forbid Miami, all of whom would get huge value from him, for our calculations to shift yet again.
Well one good thing that we saw was PDX disregarding a ton of pressure to capitulate and send Dame (basically like professor emeritus level icon) to his destination of choice. They haven't taken a huge reputation hit, and they made a deal that was in their own best interests. So at the very least that should calm some folks' fears (myself included) that super teams are a fait accompli just because. That's not to say that guys like AD won't still land in preferred places, but at least those landing spots will have to pony up real assets and not fictional ones. Miami has shit assets and didn't deserve Dame, and I'm grateful for how it played out.
 

BigSoxFan

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Fortunately, Milwaukee has no draft assets left to trade, and not really any interesting young players either.

Somewhere like Dallas would make a lot of sense for Rob, but they might be hesitant to spend the (iirc) one first they have left to deal.
I feel like a team with lots of draft capital that they can’t possibly spend should take a chance on Rob. Spurs have a million picks and have a McDermott expiring that they could flip with a pick for Rob.

Pairing Wemby with Rob could be fun.
 

Euclis20

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On the Dunc'd On podcast, they were pushing pretty hard that an extension is coming and was likely part of the trade discussions.
Who knows the cap looks like in a few years, but it doesn't seem like there's any way that all four big contracts can still be on the team together by 2026. Tatum and Brown would both be on their super max deals, KP would be in the final year of his deal, plus Holiday's extension. That'd be in the neighborhood of $170-$180M, just for those four (for comparison, they'll cost about $137M this year).

Edit - these things usually have a way of working themselves out, often not in good ways. Maybe Holiday shows his age and isn't worth a $30M+ extension, maybe KP just can't stay healthy and the Celtics let him go, maybe the occasionally rocky relationship between JB and the team finally comes to a head and they trade him. Maybe the nightmare scenario occurs and Tatum doesn't sign the super max, and is gone 2 years from now.

I'll think I'll just enjoy the next two seasons and go from there.
 

kazuneko

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Fortunately, Milwaukee has no draft assets left to trade, and not really any interesting young players either.

Somewhere like Dallas would make a lot of sense for Rob, but they might be hesitant to spend the (iirc) one first they have left to deal.
Not sure why Portland would want to trade Rob. He’s 25 and signed through the 25-26 season on a reasonable contract, and the team needs front court players.
Depending on Scoot’s development, Portland has a chance to be good soon. They currently have a starting five of Scoot, Simons, Grant, Williams and Ayton with a bench led by Brogdon (who they are currently saying they are going to keep) and Sharpe.
Joe Cronin is looking like a strong candidate for executive of the year. Absolutely amazing what he was able to get for Lillard.
 

Auger34

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Not sure why Portland would want to trade Rob. He’s 25 and signed through the 25-26 season on a reasonable contract, and the team needs front court players.
Depending on Scoot’s development, Portland has a chance to be good soon. They currently have a starting five of Scoot, Simons, Grant, Williams and Ayton with a bench led by Brogdon (who they are currently saying they are going to keep) and Sharpe.
Joe Cronin is looking like a strong candidate for executive of the year. Absolutely amazing what he was able to get for Lillard.
Because Rob and Ayton's skillsets have a ton of overlap. Neither of them has the ability to stretch the floor a lot and you don't really want either of them chasing stretch 4's around the perimeter.

I don't think there's a rush to trade Rob but if he plays really well and they can parlay him into more assets, I think he would definitely be moved.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Who knows the cap looks like in a few years, but it doesn't seem like there's any way that all four big contracts can still be on the team together by 2026. Tatum and Brown would both be on their super max deals, KP would be in the final year of his deal, plus Holiday's extension. That'd be in the neighborhood of $170-$180M, just for those four (for comparison, they'll cost about $137M this year).

Edit - these things usually have a way of working themselves out, often not in good ways. Maybe Holiday shows his age and isn't worth a $30M+ extension, maybe KP just can't stay healthy and the Celtics let him go, maybe the occasionally rocky relationship between JB and the team finally comes to a head and they trade him. Maybe the nightmare scenario occurs and Tatum doesn't sign the super max, and is gone 2 years from now.

I'll think I'll just enjoy the next two seasons and go from there.
They mentioned 2026 and said that is why Brown will likely get traded at that point (as the most tradeable guy not named Tatum). Apparently under the new CBA there are draft pick penalties for second apron teams that are severe.
 

Euclis20

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Because Rob and Ayton's skillsets have a ton of overlap. Neither of them has the ability to stretch the floor a lot and you don't really want either of them chasing stretch 4's around the perimeter.

I don't think there's a rush to trade Rob but if he plays really well and they can parlay him into more assets, I think he would definitely be moved.
Yeah Rob's deal is pretty great for a starting center and very reasonable for a backup on a title contender, but a poor allocation of resources for a backup on a bad team, especially when the starter is signed for the exact same number of years and is expected to play 30+ minutes per game. No rush to move him as you say, but since they can't play together it seems like at least one of them isn't long for Portland.
 

the moops

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Because Rob and Ayton's skillsets have a ton of overlap. Neither of them has the ability to stretch the floor a lot and you don't really want either of them chasing stretch 4's around the perimeter.
They also need 48 minutes of center play though. Ayton/Williams is a pretty damn good center rotation
 

Auger34

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They also need 48 minutes of center play though. Ayton/Williams is a pretty damn good center rotation
@Euclis20 addressed this in the post above yours.

You're right but I don't think the Blazers really care about that right now. They're one of the 5 worst teams in the NBA right now, it's all about the future for them.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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They also need 48 minutes of center play though. Ayton/Williams is a pretty damn good center rotation
Not to mention that the one place that Rob is game changing - his presence on defense - is the place where people say Ayton disappears.

Ayton filling up the stats in the middle of games while Rob locks down 20 minutes a night including the end of games? Feels like a pretty good C rotation.
 

BigSoxFan

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Biggest reason is Rob’s knees could give out at any moment and then you’ve lost an asset. For a team focused on the future, I’d probably want to sacrifice some upside and lock in a draft pick return.
 

NomarsFool

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On the Dunc'd On podcast, they were pushing pretty hard that an extension is coming and was likely part of the trade discussions.
Looks like Jrue is signed through 24-25 season. Reports were talking about having only 1 year left on his deal, but I guess they meant one year AFTER this season (not the way I would have described it). So, I feel much better about the cost to acquire him now because 2 years of this core is pretty darn good. Back to back, baby!
 

BigSoxFan

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Looks like Jrue is signed through 24-25 season. Reports were talking about having only 1 year left on his deal, but I guess they meant one year AFTER this season (not the way I would have described it). So, I feel much better about the cost to acquire him now because 2 years of this core is pretty darn good. Back to back, baby!
2024-2025 is a player option
 

Euclis20

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Looks like Jrue is signed through 24-25 season. Reports were talking about having only 1 year left on his deal, but I guess they meant one year AFTER this season (not the way I would have described it). So, I feel much better about the cost to acquire him now because 2 years of this core is pretty darn good. Back to back, baby!
He's signed through this year, with a player option for next year. If the Celtics and Holiday can't come to terms on an extension, there's a very real chance that he turns down the PO and this is a one year deal.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Looks like Jrue is signed through 24-25 season. Reports were talking about having only 1 year left on his deal, but I guess they meant one year AFTER this season (not the way I would have described it). So, I feel much better about the cost to acquire him now because 2 years of this core is pretty darn good. Back to back, baby!
One more year (player option) at $39.4M, but if next summer the Cs still love Jrue but don't love the concept of $153M tied up in four players, I'd guess they could sit down with him and get him to tear up the option year in favor of a multi-year extension at a slightly lower AAV.
 

Sam Ray Not

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This thread is freaking me out.
It's normal English phonology for the "t" in "tree" to morph into a "ch" (or "tʃ"), and the same thing happens when the sound is voiced (i.e. "d" becomes "j").

Nobody freaks out that the "t" in "nature": is pronounced "ch," or that the "d" in "graduate" is pronounced "j", so I don't know why anyone should freak out about "Chree" or "Jrue."
 

Red Right Ankle

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It's normal English phonology for the "t" in "tree" to morph into a "ch" (or "tʃ"), and the same thing happens when the sound is voiced (i.e. "d" becomes "j").

Nobody freaks out that the "t" in "nature": is pronounced "ch," or that the "d" in "graduate" is pronounced "j", so I don't know why anyone should freak out about "Chree" or "Jrue."
Because it rarely happens at the start of a word in the English language.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Celtics-Bucks ECF or bust, unless there is a cluster of injuries.
I'd guess it's still not much better than a 50/50 proposition, just cos the nature of variance favors the field. Give the Cs with their iffy big man depth a ~75% shot of getting into the ECF, and the Bucks with their iffy perimeter defense a ~75% shot and you're at a 56% proposition.
 

Euclis20

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I'd guess it's still not much better than a 50/50 proposition, just cos the nature of variance favors the field. Give the Cs with their iffy big man depth a ~75% shot of getting into the ECF, and the Bucks with their iffy perimeter defense a ~75% shot and you're at a 56% proposition.
I think those are decent odds if the two teams end up on opposite sides of the EC bracket, but there's a pretty good chance they finish the year as 2-3, or even 1-4 (neither team is going all out in the regular season). I wouldn't be surprised if they meet before the ECF.
 

djbayko

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It's normal English phonology for the "t" in "tree" to morph into a "ch" (or "tʃ"), and the same thing happens when the sound is voiced (i.e. "d" becomes "j").

Nobody freaks out that the "t" in "nature": is pronounced "ch," or that the "d" in "graduate" is pronounced "j", so I don't know why anyone should freak out about "Chree" or "Jrue."
Sure. Beginning "drawing" with a "j" sound is not normal.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I think those are decent odds if the two teams end up on opposite sides of the EC bracket, but there's a pretty good chance they finish the year as 2-3, or even 1-4 (neither team is going all out in the regular season). I wouldn't be surprised if they meet before the ECF.
Ah, great point — the actual Conference Finals are not always the same as the de facto ones. So maybe give it a 60%-ish shot that they meet up at some point a "de facto ECF," but more like 40%-ish that that's the actual ECF.
 

NomarsFool

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He's signed through this year, with a player option for next year. If the Celtics and Holiday can't come to terms on an extension, there's a very real chance that he turns down the PO and this is a one year deal.
Ugh. Okay, now I'm concerned again.
 

lexrageorge

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Ugh. Okay, now I'm concerned again.
I don't think it will be that difficult for the 2 sides to agree to an extension. The salary in the out years seems scary now, but the Celtics could always move on from any one or even two of their big salaries in 2025 or 2026 (even 2024, albeit less likely) if it came to that.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'd guess it's still not much better than a 50/50 proposition, just cos the nature of variance favors the field. Give the Cs with their iffy big man depth a ~75% shot of getting into the ECF, and the Bucks with their iffy perimeter defense a ~75% shot and you're at a 56% proposition.
Yeah and a 6% chance that both fail to make the ECF. Seems about right.
 

mcpickl

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I don't think it will be that difficult for the 2 sides to agree to an extension. The salary in the out years seems scary now, but the Celtics could always move on from any one or even two of their big salaries in 2025 or 2026 (even 2024, albeit less likely) if it came to that.
I’d bet they had already talked parameters on what an extension with Jrue might look like before even finalizing the trade. His agent and the Celtics have made many deals in just the past few years.

Jrue can’t sign an extension for six months, I’d guess he will sign one before hitting free agency, assuming he likes it here and is healthy at that time.
 

Imbricus

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I’d bet they had already talked parameters on what an extension with Jrue might look like before even finalizing the trade.
Absolutely. I wouldn't lose one minute of sleep over that. If Brad didn't, he should be booted. Of course, anything could happen, but there certainly should be a framework for an extension already in place.
 

benhogan

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@Euclis20 addressed this in the post above yours.

You're right but I don't think the Blazers really care about that right now. They're one of the 5 worst teams in the NBA right now, it's all about the future for them.
Yep, they are in full rebuild mindset and they have 32 million reasons to develop Ayton as their primary 5.

PDX should shrink-wrap Rob and then trade him to a contender at the deadline for pick(s).

Right now Rob would look good on GS, Houston, OKC, NOLA (move Jonas, who wants a large deal) even the Lakers could go double BIG and never yield a point in the paint again
 

Auger34

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Yep, they are in full rebuild mindset and they have 32 million reasons to develop Ayton as their primary 5.

PDX should shrink-wrap Rob and then trade him to a contender at the deadline for pick(s).

Right now Rob would look good on GS, Houston, OKC, NOLA (move Jonas, who wants a large deal) even the Lakers could go double BIG and never yield a point in the paint again
Exactly.

I said it once but I will repeat myself...the Blazers don't care at all that they have a good center rotation this year or that Rob can defend when he's on the floor but Ayton can't. It just doesn't matter. They aren't trying to compete (and if they were, it doesn't matter that they have a good center rotation because they are going to get their doors blown off this year).
Because Rob's on a better contract and is more comfortable doing the "dirty work" (screening and rolling to the rim, defending, not needing post touches), he's much more attractive to a contender than DeAndre Ayton (who pouts when he doesn't get post touches and might be considered radioactive to contenders at this point)

Cronin and Co. want to set themselves up for the 2025-2026 season when Scoot and Sharpe are coming into their own (I would guess that Simons is also not considered a building block).
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I like the trade. I'll miss Timelord, but I don't know that we'll see him take a jump and the knee is a major concern. Brodgon was a quality 6th man, but I'm not sure how happy he was going to be after the KP trade rumors and it feels like they sold high on him after a good year when he has his own injury concerns. And they replace Brogdon with a very good guard. Not worried about trading the picks. That's what a team in title contention does with picks.

I do worry they're not deep enough to get through the season without running the starters into the ground before the playoffs start. The front court, especially, considering Al's age and KP's injury history and offseason foot issues.

Pritchard, Hauser and Kornet should be fine regular season depth. They'll need one or two of the Brissett, Walsh, Stevens group to emerge as quality bench pieces to keep the J's fresh for the playoffs.

But a starting lineup of Holliday, White, Brown, Tatum and KP is going to run through teams and be a ton of fun to watch.