As I mentioned earlier, I'm not much of a Marcus fan. I just don't see the upside. The possible benefit is that he plays well enough, and/or the market moves enough that 4/77 (since that is what is leaked I think there is almost zero chance that is what he signs for - but let's put that aside) is seen at below market and his real value is 4/85 or whatever. Is some other team going to give us that much extra value for that $7 million in "savings"? I don't see it. I see more risk that everyone knows we have to send him out to get Beal (or some other FA) and we don't get much for him at all, and then the risk that he declines/decreases in value I see as more likely than the upside.
So here are my thoughts:
1. I think 4/77 is honestly a discount. I think current Marcus Smart on next year's market gets between 4/80 and 4/90
2. I see almost zero downside, short of an achilles tear, and even then maybe not based on all the injury history guys who have gotten huge deals coming off issues (Hayward, Dinwiddie, Collins)
3. The upside is that if Marcus does well as the starting PG and say is 2nd team all-defense and goes back to his 2018-2020 3pt shooting, he's a 4/100 guy.
The bigger thing is this... what a guy would get in FA isn't the same as his value. Smart would have value on that deal if we wanted to trade him because he's exactly the type of player that in the tax contenders want. So say a GSW... if we were getting Beal and WAS wanted expirings, they'd jump at the chance to turn Wiggins' expiring into Marcus, they'd tack on assets to do it, there are a bunch of big expirings for not good players that would be in play for him depending on who the teams who are trying to make a playoff push are (don't sleep on NOP in 2 years as they try to keep Zion)
The real upside also is.... Marcus Smart is pretty good. You have a very tight window to thread to get a star, and if you miss and you lose Smart for nothing you're in trouble. On the flip side, if you add a 3rd star and keep Marcus he's a good piece for a championship contender, or he's trade ballast. There is little chance he ends up underwater on that deal short of a career threatening/ending injury (and a team can get insurance on that).