Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

lovegtm

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The season isn't over yet, but a lot of discussion has been centered around what the Celtics can, cannot, and should do in the upcoming summer. It's an important one, since they need to get the team right around the Jays and finalize that transition.

It would be good if people can give their backup plans and overall strategies, rather than just "get rid of Kemba at all costs" or "acquire X player". Sometimes specific moves aren't feasible, for whatever reason.

My thoughts below.

Core:
Tatum (likely $28M)
Brown ($25M)

Extend/Re-sign
TL, probably ends up at 4/70ish, kicking in the next year
Fournier, also likely 4/70ish

Young Guys I Keep
PP
Romeo
Nesmith
(The above is barring a trade where they have a bit of value; none of them are close to untouchable)

Young Guys I Only Keep if There's a Free Roster Spot
Grant
Carsen

Try to Trade
Kemba. Ideally you can move him at least partially into cap space. If you can't, there's some case for keeping him, since replacing him with expirings isn't that attractive when he might opt out the following summer, or at least could be moved a lot more cheaply.

Rest of the TPE
Look to acquire a mediocre vet wing in a low-cost trade.

The Smart Situation
I'm pretty concerned about Marcus's defense going forward--that's something that's far less dependent on sample size, and it hasn't been good. He still seems to have positive value as an asset, so I'd try to move him to a team like Atlanta for an asset to use later, or directly to a team like NO in a S&T for Lonzo.

The other direction is if an established guy comes on the market. At that point, you combine Smart, TT and filler to match salaries, and do a deal based on lots of future picks, where the other team's value is mostly realized if Brown/Tatum sign elsewhere down the road.

End State
The ideal result of this is a core of Brown/Tatum/TL + a wing or big guard acquisition, with Fournier as the vet scoring wing, Kemba's salary off the books, and hoping for one of Romeo or AN to become decent.

The less ideal outcome is to have contract-year Smart, unless you're really high on his post age-28 years.

More nuance can be added, but this is how I'm currently thinking about it.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Fade for Cade, suck for Suggs?

Hard to think of a more ideal running mate for the Jays (and TL!) going forward than Suggs or Cunningham.

Tanking ain’t what it used to be. You don’t have to worry about competing with Houston or Minny; even the 10th worst record gets you a 14% shot at a top 4 pick. The Cs are currently 2.5 games out of that slot. Just figure out a way to creatively rest the Jays and get starters’ minutes for Edwards, Semi, Nesmith, Langford, and co. Talking five weeks of ugly hoops for a decade-plus of dominance.

In related news, I just spun the Sim Lottery wheel on Tankathon, and got the Warriors the #1 *and* #5 picks on my first spin. Happy Easter! :)
 
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ColonelMustard

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Great thread and a few thoughts.

1) Who do we trade Kemba to? It's clear to everyone watching that Kemba is not living up to his contract. We might have to just hope for improvement.

2) Regarding "you combine Smart, TT and filler to match salaries, and do a deal based on lots of future picks", if this is what it took to get it done it would have been done. Who are the Celtics targeting for this package?

3) Young Guys You Keep vs. Young Guys You Trade. I think this points to the biggest glaring ADDRESSABLE gap on this roster (apart from the Kemba/No Hayward replacement). If you order the 2019 draft by PPG, you have to go down 36 slots to find the first Celtic (Williams, followed by Carsen, and Langford).

At this point, you have to hope AN and RL show something and draft effectively in your slot.
 

lovegtm

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Fade for Cade, suck for Suggs?

Hard to think of a more ideal running mate for the Jays (and TL!) going forward than Suggs or Cunningham.

Even a #10 worst record gets you a 14% at a top 4 pick. Just figure out a way to creatively rest the Jays and get starters’ minutes for Edwards, Semi, Nesmith, Langford, and co. Talking five weeks of ugly hoops for a decade-plus of dominance.

In related news, I just spun the Sim Lottery wheel on Tankathon, and got the Warriors the #1 *and* #5 picks on my first spin. Happy Easter! :)
I hadn't watched much college hoops until last night--was shocked at how good Suggs looks defensively.

I'm here for the tank.
 

bankshot1

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There's a lot of moving parts to the Celts woes and a retool, but I'm going to start with a base assumption that JnJ are a core to build around. And that TL will be a significant contributor to that effort
IMO the Celtics (Danny) have to come to decisions about Kemba and Smart and the PG position, as the lack of an adept facilitator and maestro orchestrating ball movement is critical. Their offense is way too stagnant. Maybe giving Terrible Terry the keys to the car wouldn't have been the worst idea.

Kemba- can he ever play healthy, or play as a 2nd team guy if he can't be moved, or moved only under a very unfavorable terms? But if Kemba is day on day off that is untenable.

Smart-I love Marcus, but this year has been hellish, and I'm loathe to judge or value him off this year, and sell cheap. He's under a good contract for another year and he carries some weight as a 1st team defensive pain in the ass. Maybe the best thing is to trade him (or extended w a S&T?) for a decent young PG who enjoys being a conductor and plays decent D.

Once the big picture is better defined, the smaller pieces can be figured out.
 

lovegtm

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...
2) Regarding "you combine Smart, TT and filler to match salaries, and do a deal based on lots of future picks", if this is what it took to get it done I believe it would have already. Who are the Celtics targeting for this?
...
Guys come available all the time who you wouldn't expect. As a recent example, if the Celtics thought Aaron Gordon was that guy, there was probably a deal based around Smart+a 1st rounder, based on reporting. As another example, Jrue Holiday was available as an overpay for exactly that type of deal (betting on Giannis leaving at some point or aging out).
 

lovegtm

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There's a lot of moving parts to the Celts woes and a retool, but I'm going to start with a base assumption that JnJ are a core to build around. And that TL will be a significant contributor to that effort
IMO the Celtics (Danny) have to come to decisions about Kemba and Smart and the PG position, as the lack of an adept facilitator and maestro orchestrating ball movement is critical. Their offense is way too stagnant. Maybe giving Terrible Terry the keys to the car wouldn't have been the worst idea.

Kemba- can he ever play healthy, or play as a 2nd team guy if he can't be moved, or moved only under a very unfavorable terms? But if Kemba is day on day off that is untenable.

Smart-I love Marcus, but this year has been hellish, and I'm loathe to judge or value him off this year, and sell cheap. He's under a good contract for another year and he carries some weight as a 1st team defensive pain in the ass. Maybe the best thing is to trade him (or extended w a S&T?) for a decent young PG who enjoys being a conductor and plays decent D.

Once the big picture is better defined, the smaller pieces can be figured out.
Hmmmm I agree re offensive stagnation, but I think you're overestimating the role of a PG in improving that, as opposed to better complementary wing play. We can already see glimpses of that now that Fournier is replacing Semi's minutes.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I keep going back and forth on what Danny WILL do and what I feel he SHOULD do. It results in confusion then followed by the realization that he really screwed this rebuild up and painted himself into this corner of mediocrity. Look at all the talent that has left Boston these last two years without receiving compensation except a TPE for the right to overpay Evan Fournier? Couple this with the continual drafting of “safe” and low-upside players while passing on more risky yet higher upside players while admittedly screwing up the personnel fits in 2 of the last 3 years has me leading the March for Wyc & Co to overhaul this entire organization this summer.

Start here and then the new guy will bring in his coach while moving one (or both) of the Jays for his guys. Otherwise I don’t see how we aren’t going to be in a similar spot in 12 months questioning the direction again. Just do it now and let’s move forward.
 

lexrageorge

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I keep going back and forth on what Danny WILL do and what I feel he SHOULD do. It results in confusion then followed by the realization that he really screwed this rebuild up and painted himself into this corner of mediocrity. Look at all the talent that has left Boston these last two years without receiving compensation except a TPE for the right to overpay Evan Fournier? Couple this with the continual drafting of “safe” and low-upside players while passing on more risky yet higher upside players while admittedly screwing up the personnel fits in 2 of the last 3 years has me leading the March for Wyc & Co to overhaul this entire organization this summer.

Start here and then the new guy will bring in his coach while moving one (or both) of the Jays for his guys. Otherwise I don’t see how we aren’t going to be in a similar spot in 12 months questioning the direction again. Just do it now and let’s move forward.
There's zero chance even the owners will be willing to bring in a GM his first priority will be to move both Tatum and Brown. That ship has long sailed; Tatum and Brown are the core of this team for the next few years. Wyc ain't tanking.
 

lovegtm

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I keep going back and forth on what Danny WILL do and what I feel he SHOULD do. It results in confusion then followed by the realization that he really screwed this rebuild up and painted himself into this corner of mediocrity. Look at all the talent that has left Boston these last two years without receiving compensation except a TPE for the right to overpay Evan Fournier? Couple this with the continual drafting of “safe” and low-upside players while passing on more risky yet higher upside players while admittedly screwing up the personnel fits in 2 of the last 3 years has me leading the March for Wyc & Co to overhaul this entire organization this summer.

Start here and then the new guy will bring in his coach while moving one (or both) of the Jays for his guys. Otherwise I don’t see how we aren’t going to be in a similar spot in 12 months questioning the direction again. Just do it now and let’s move forward.
This take will take some heat, but I agree that Danny has not had a great last 2 years, and I think that a change of direction should at least be considered. This is pretty much what Philly did bringing in Morey.

Where I disagree is moving Tatum and Brown--I don't see how you get equivalent value, except maybe if you do a big deal centered around Brown for Beal.

If ownership wanted to go in this type of direction, I imagine it would look more like holding on to Brown/Tatum/TL while being willing to re-arrange everything else. I don't think it will happen, but it would look a lot like when Morey came in in Philly.
 

RetractableRoof

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Kemba- can he ever play healthy, or play as a 2nd team guy if he can't be moved, or moved only under a very unfavorable terms? But if Kemba is day on day off that is untenable.
Just replying to this piece of your post. *If* Kemba is giving them valuable minutes, you can live w/ managing him in a non-covid world. Once you hit the playoffs, again non-covid world, there is plenty of space between games. I'd also remind that managing his minutes provides a way to keep the roster happy if you have a lot of talent and not so many touches to go around.
 

HomeRunBaker

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There's zero chance even the owners will be willing to bring in a GM his first priority will be to move both Tatum and Brown. That ship has long sailed; Tatum and Brown are the core of this team for the next few years. Wyc ain't tanking.
They aren’t late-30’s KG and Pierce that would only fetch future picks. Either would return top tier talent All-Star talent in return from a team also looking to reshape the top end of their roster. We would be looking to take a step UP.....not to tank.

Any new GM of worth is going to want to shake things up and that would be his selling point to ownership during the interview process just as Ainge’s was in moving on from the Pierce/Antoine duo.
 

128

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I keep going back and forth on what Danny WILL do and what I feel he SHOULD do. It results in confusion then followed by the realization that he really screwed this rebuild up and painted himself into this corner of mediocrity. Look at all the talent that has left Boston these last two years without receiving compensation except a TPE for the right to overpay Evan Fournier? Couple this with the continual drafting of “safe” and low-upside players while passing on more risky yet higher upside players while admittedly screwing up the personnel fits in 2 of the last 3 years has me leading the March for Wyc & Co to overhaul this entire organization this summer.

Start here and then the new guy will bring in his coach while moving one (or both) of the Jays for his guys. Otherwise I don’t see how we aren’t going to be in a similar spot in 12 months questioning the direction again. Just do it now and let’s move forward.
Would the rebuild have been screwed up if Hayward hadn't suffered a catastrophic injury in his Celtic debut? Danny has made his share of mistakes since then--maybe more than his share--but that's a big-time curveball to have to deal with.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This take will take some heat, but I agree that Danny has not had a great last 2 years, and I think that a change of direction should at least be considered. This is pretty much what Philly did bringing in Morey.

Where I disagree is moving Tatum and Brown--I don't see how you get equivalent value, except maybe if you do a big deal centered around Brown for Beal.

If ownership wanted to go in this type of direction, I imagine it would look more like holding on to Brown/Tatum/TL while being willing to re-arrange everything else. I don't think it will happen, but it would look a lot like when Morey came in in Philly.
This Brown for Beal deal is the type of shakeup I’m referring to.....other teams looking for a change could be Portland (McCollum), Indiana (Sabonis), Toronto (Siakam), Bulls (Zack), or Wolves (Towns). Any of them would at the very least be picking up the phone when Ainge’s caller-ID pops up. I don’t know why your take would take any heat......from an outsiders perspective it would appear logical to feel that maybe Ainge’s tenure is at the end based on the past 3 years. It just feels like a tired organization in need of a spark.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Would the rebuild have been screwed up if Hayward hadn't suffered a catastrophic injury in his Celtic debut? Danny has made his share of mistakes since then--maybe more than his share--but that's a big-time curveball to have to deal with.
If he opted out two years later once he was 100% and we received nothing in return.....oh yes absolutely.
 

lovegtm

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This Brown for Beal deal is the type of shakeup I’m referring to.....other teams looking for a change could be Portland (McCollum), Indiana (Sabonis), Toronto (Siakam), Bulls (Zack), or Wolves (Towns). Any of them would at the very least be picking up the phone when Ainge’s caller-ID pops up. I don’t know why your take would take any heat......from an outsiders perspective it would appear logical to feel that maybe Ainge’s tenure is at the end based on the past 3 years. It just feels like a tired organization in need of a spark.
Yeah, the only ones of those I consider are Beal and Towns, and I'm very skeptical of the latter's defense.

Usually you want to do the shakeup more at the complementary/role-player level, be willing to deal picks, move on from various young guys, etc.

I agree with the overall concept, however. Whether Ainge stays or goes, there need to be really big re-jiggerings of the Celtics' assets and timeline profile.
 

bankshot1

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IMO Ainge did a pretty decent job positioning the Celts to succeed. With just half-decent luck, the LAL/SAC pick and Memphis pick would have been high lottery gems, rather than mid-round picks, if Hayward doesn't break 5 minutes into the season, KI isn't such a me-me-me disruptive ahole, or Kemba can't stay on the court, there's a decent chance we would have been in at least one Final the past few years. And I don't blame anyone person for this year, there are enough bakers to claim some responsibility for serving up a shit-pie.

Without reliving or replaying all the history, could he have traded KI or Hayward, maybe, (I think this is mostly 2nd guessing) but the window was real real small or maybe Ainge saw the potential of a healthy JnJ, KI, Gordo and Smart and wanted to roll the dice. That's a lot of fucking talent put together by Ainge.

While no one is indispensible, I have a hard time thinking Ainge is easily upgradeable.
 

Cesar Crespo

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IMO Ainge did a pretty decent job positioning the Celts to succeed. With just half-decent luck, the LAL/SAC pick and Memphis pick would have been high lottery gems, rather than mid-round picks.
Sorry but the Celtics had insane luck with the Nets trade and they got a lottery pick out of Jeff Green. Draft position is not an excuse for this team.
 

benhogan

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Well after they win the title, they have a parade, and then they re-sign Fournier and try to go B2B.

:)
Washington Post today:
"infrastructure legislation has earmarked funds for Boston Duck Boats to be converted from diesel to electricity"

most legislators believe they won't be needed for years :(

#NewEnglandsports
 

mcpickl

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I keep going back and forth on what Danny WILL do and what I feel he SHOULD do. It results in confusion then followed by the realization that he really screwed this rebuild up and painted himself into this corner of mediocrity. Look at all the talent that has left Boston these last two years without receiving compensation except a TPE for the right to overpay Evan Fournier? Couple this with the continual drafting of “safe” and low-upside players while passing on more risky yet higher upside players while admittedly screwing up the personnel fits in 2 of the last 3 years has me leading the March for Wyc & Co to overhaul this entire organization this summer.

Start here and then the new guy will bring in his coach while moving one (or both) of the Jays for his guys. Otherwise I don’t see how we aren’t going to be in a similar spot in 12 months questioning the direction again. Just do it now and let’s move forward.
Wouldn't the picks fans are most mad about, Langford and Nesmith, be considered in the risky yet higher upside category? They certainly wouldn't be considered "safe" picks.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Wouldn't the picks fans are most mad about, Langford and Nesmith, be considered in the risky yet higher upside category? They certainly wouldn't be considered "safe" picks.
Langford, yes. Nesmith, no. I know others have different opinions of what generates “upside” but I was taught and continue to believe that it is nearly 100% tied to ones length and athleticism as these are traits which cannot be improved as opposed to skills (shooting, ball handling, etc) which can. There will always be outliers so I expect people to point to the VanVleet’s of the world as “proof” that it is more than length and athleticism but that is not the norm.

This is one of the reasons that I’m not convinced Langford won’t make a leap if he’s ever removed from the side of my milk carton. He was beginning to make strides into his game before he went MIA.
 

lovegtm

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Langford, yes. Nesmith, no. I know others have different opinions of what generates “upside” but I was taught and continue to believe that it is nearly 100% tied to ones length and athleticism as these are traits which cannot be improved as opposed to skills (shooting, ball handling, etc) which can. There will always be outliers so I expect people to point to the VanVleet’s of the world as “proof” that it is more than length and athleticism but that is not the norm.

This is one of the reasons that I’m not convinced Langford won’t make a leap if he’s ever removed from the side of my milk carton. He was beginning to make strides into his game before he went MIA.
I'm extremely high on Romeo Langford, if he exists. It's pretty important that the team at least get a look at him before these summer decisions.
 

mcpickl

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Langford, yes. Nesmith, no. I know others have different opinions of what generates “upside” but I was taught and continue to believe that it is nearly 100% tied to ones length and athleticism as these are traits which cannot be improved as opposed to skills (shooting, ball handling, etc) which can. There will always be outliers so I expect people to point to the VanVleet’s of the world as “proof” that it is more than length and athleticism but that is not the norm.

This is one of the reasons that I’m not convinced Langford won’t make a leap if he’s ever removed from the side of my milk carton. He was beginning to make strides into his game before he went MIA.
So if Langford doesn't qualify, who are all the guys that qualify as "continual drafting of “safe” and low-upside players" that you want Danny Ainge fired for?
 

Cellar-Door

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Wouldn't the picks fans are most mad about, Langford and Nesmith, be considered in the risky yet higher upside category? They certainly wouldn't be considered "safe" picks.
I think reasonable fans are more upset with:
2016 Yabu and Zizic (yes they needed 1 to be a stash, but part of that was poor planning, but not getting a trade and turning 16 and 23 into nothing while not even taking a high upside shot is rough)
2019- Turned #20 into a salary dump of a good player and Edwards, then compounded it by giving Edwards a bigger than usual contract. Then at 22 took Grant Williams. Have to think you could have easily used 22 to make the dump, lost Edwards, but taken a high ceiling guy at 20 in Thybulle or Clarke.

Overall, I think Danny is a good GM who had 2 great moves, and has drafted very well at the top of the draft (an underrated thing) and been about average elsewhere in the draft. He's made some good trades, and been hit by some bad luck. If there is an argument for a real mistake by him it is that he was too reticent to overpay on a big move, and when he made the big move is fell apart quickly.

If you want to fault Danny for something, it is that his unwillingness to overpay for a star pre and post Kyrie led to a lot of "assets" turning into nothing, and constant roster space issues that led to salary dump trades. Probably the biggest thing to me is.. he needed to pull the trigger on some of the deals he was in on.. say overpaying for Butler. On the other hand he did have bad luck... Kyrie went off the rails after what was a steal for his talent, Hayward gets hurt, Horford chooses to leave, Kemba doesn't get the couple full health years they expected, etc. etc.

Still, Danny is a good GM and I would not fire him unless you have a better option, and I don't see any of the better options leaving their current jobs.
 

mcpickl

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I think reasonable fans are more upset with:
2016 Yabu and Zizic (yes they needed 1 to be a stash, but part of that was poor planning, but not getting a trade and turning 16 and 23 into nothing while not even taking a high upside shot is rough)
2019- Turned #20 into a salary dump of a good player and Edwards, then compounded it by giving Edwards a bigger than usual contract. Then at 22 took Grant Williams. Have to think you could have easily used 22 to make the dump, lost Edwards, but taken a high ceiling guy at 20 in Thybulle or Clarke.


Overall, I think Danny is a good GM who had 2 great moves, and has drafted very well at the top of the draft (an underrated thing) and been about average elsewhere in the draft. He's made some good trades, and been hit by some bad luck. If there is an argument for a real mistake by him it is that he was too reticent to overpay on a big move, and when he made the big move is fell apart quickly.

If you want to fault Danny for something, it is that his unwillingness to overpay for a star pre and post Kyrie led to a lot of "assets" turning into nothing, and constant roster space issues that led to salary dump trades. Probably the biggest thing to me is.. he needed to pull the trigger on some of the deals he was in on.. say overpaying for Butler. On the other hand he did have bad luck... Kyrie went off the rails after what was a steal for his talent, Hayward gets hurt, Horford chooses to leave, Kemba doesn't get the couple full health years they expected, etc. etc.

Still, Danny is a good GM and I would not fire him unless you have a better option, and I don't see any of the better options leaving their current jobs.
On these, oddly, the guys you named in the 2019 draft in Thybulle/Clarke, and in the 2016 draft if Ainge happened to draft perfect and hit on the two best guys he could've Siakam/Brogdon, I think all four of those guys would qualify more as safe guys, than the risky high upside guys that HRB wants Ainge to draft.
 

ZMart100

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I think reasonable fans are more upset with:
2016 Yabu and Zizic (yes they needed 1 to be a stash, but part of that was poor planning, but not getting a trade and turning 16 and 23 into nothing while not even taking a high upside shot is rough)
2019- Turned #20 into a salary dump of a good player and Edwards, then compounded it by giving Edwards a bigger than usual contract. Then at 22 took Grant Williams. Have to think you could have easily used 22 to make the dump, lost Edwards, but taken a high ceiling guy at 20 in Thybulle or Clarke.

Overall, I think Danny is a good GM who had 2 great moves, and has drafted very well at the top of the draft (an underrated thing) and been about average elsewhere in the draft. He's made some good trades, and been hit by some bad luck. If there is an argument for a real mistake by him it is that he was too reticent to overpay on a big move, and when he made the big move is fell apart quickly.

If you want to fault Danny for something, it is that his unwillingness to overpay for a star pre and post Kyrie led to a lot of "assets" turning into nothing, and constant roster space issues that led to salary dump trades. Probably the biggest thing to me is.. he needed to pull the trigger on some of the deals he was in on.. say overpaying for Butler. On the other hand he did have bad luck... Kyrie went off the rails after what was a steal for his talent, Hayward gets hurt, Horford chooses to leave, Kemba doesn't get the couple full health years they expected, etc. etc.

Still, Danny is a good GM and I would not fire him unless you have a better option, and I don't see any of the better options leaving their current jobs.
The rumor was that the offer was the Brown pick, the Yabu pick and Jae Crowder for Butler. I think not making that trade turned out to be correct.
 

lexrageorge

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If he opted out two years later once he was 100% and we received nothing in return.....oh yes absolutely.
Hayward had almost zero trade value during that period. Teams were not going to give up assets after his first season back, and he was both too hurt and then too valuable to trade at the deadline last season. Blaming Ainge for Hayward opting out is just silly.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So if Langford doesn't qualify, who are all the guys that qualify as "continual drafting of “safe” and low-upside players" that you want Danny Ainge fired for?
I don’t want him fired for his poor drafting as much as questioned on his drafting philosophy. Mind is fairly simple......you can acquire already physically mature role players once you’re ready to contend and should be firing on the upside players in the draft to take advantage of their future physical and skill growth. Although I can point to about a dozen upside guys he missed badly on while Robert Williams and Rozier being the two he hit on......while losing one of them for zero so far.

Grant Williams - Nobody l liked there made it but again it’s the philosophy I question.
Sullinger - The 3 I liked here were Harkless (didn’t drop to us), Middleton and Wroten.
Olynyk - Don’t get me started on this one. While everyone was screaming for Giannis I wasn’t sold however I was very sold on Gobert, who like Middleton, showed big at the combine workouts by my eyes. Actually could have had both but for a rebuilding team it was criminal to not draft at least one of them.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, if Hayward never gets hurt you have a few benefits:
1. You have a real shot at a title in that window
2. He's more likely to re-sign
3. It's more likely you could have traded him if he wouldn't agree to an extension
4. He probably gets a lot more S&T interest.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hayward had almost zero trade value during that period. Teams were not going to give up assets after his first season back, and he was both too hurt and then too valuable to trade at the deadline last season. Blaming Ainge for Hayward opting out is just silly.
When combined with losing Rozier and Kyrie while relying on Semi/Grant/Tristan then yeah, I have a problem with how he has managed assets.
 

lexrageorge

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When combined with losing Rozier and Kyrie while relying on Semi/Grant/Tristan then yeah, I have a problem with how he has managed assets.
Goal posts moving again....

Hayward is a red herring; the injury had everything to do with his eventual departure and the lack of trade value for that particular asset. There was also the Kyrie knee injury that caused Ainge to hold onto Rozier, and Rozier's departure at least begat Kemba, whom most people thought was going to be a significant upgrade.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Goal posts moving again....

Hayward is a red herring; the injury had everything to do with his eventual departure and the lack of trade value for that particular asset. There was also the Kyrie knee injury that caused Ainge to hold onto Rozier, and Rozier's departure at least begat Kemba, whom most people thought was going to be a significant upgrade.
How are goal posts moving? This is a results oriented business and his roster structure of THAT team was horrific then two years later it was horrific in a completely different way which he admits to both.
 

Devizier

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I think one of the problems Ainge ran into with his draft picks is that he obviously had no use for them and wouldn’t take less than value. Most teams don’t fall in love with mid-late rounders so there was zero leverage. So we ended up with a lot of the Yabu kind of shitty stash lottery ticket picks.
 

mcpickl

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I don’t want him fired for his poor drafting as much as questioned on his drafting philosophy. Mind is fairly simple......you can acquire already physically mature role players once you’re ready to contend and should be firing on the upside players in the draft to take advantage of their future physical and skill growth. Although I can point to about a dozen upside guys he missed badly on while Robert Williams and Rozier being the two he hit on......while losing one of them for zero so far.

Grant Williams - Nobody l liked there made it but again it’s the philosophy I question.
Sullinger - The 3 I liked here were Harkless (didn’t drop to us), Middleton and Wroten.
Olynyk - Don’t get me started on this one. While everyone was screaming for Giannis I wasn’t sold however I was very sold on Gobert, who like Middleton, showed big at the combine workouts by my eyes. Actually could have had both but for a rebuilding team it was criminal to not draft at least one of them.
But, how is it a drafting philosophy if you just pointed out he takes a mix of risky higher upside guys, and safer higher floor guys? I think that's what most, if not all, GMs do. I mean, your 3 examples are guys chosen 22nd, 21st and 13th where it's really unlikely to hit on an upside guy and if you can hit on a high floor guy like Olynyk it's a win. And in the cases of Grant and Sullinger, he took high upside guys in the first round in the same draft Langford/Fab Melo.

You think he should just always take higher ceiling guys?

If he did that, he probably has Fultz instead of Tatum.
And maybe Dragan Bender instead of Jaylen Brown.

I think taking a mix of risky/safe guys makes way more sense. And certainly don't think sometimes, not continually as you suggested, taking a safer guy outside of the top 10 of the first round is a fireable offense. Having rotation guys on the cheap are really valuable for playoff teams.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But, how is it a drafting philosophy if you just pointed out he takes a mix of risky higher upside guys, and safer higher floor guys? I think that's what most, if not all, GMs do. I mean, your 3 examples are guys chosen 22nd, 21st and 13th where it's really unlikely to hit on an upside guy and if you can hit on a high floor guy like Olynyk it's a win. And in the cases of Grant and Sullinger, he took high upside guys in the first round in the same draft Langford/Fab Melo.

You think he should just always take higher ceiling guys?

If he did that, he probably has Fultz instead of Tatum.
And maybe Dragan Bender instead of Jaylen Brown.

I think taking a mix of risky/safe guys makes way more sense. And certainly don't think sometimes, not continually as you suggested, taking a safer guy outside of the top 10 of the first round is a fireable offense. Having rotation guys on the cheap are really valuable for playoff teams.
I don’t even know if we are speaking the same language as I had Jaylen as the upside guy (and the guy I wanted) while being the most anti-Bender guy on this site due to his low upside, stiffness, etc.
 

mcpickl

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I think one of the problems Ainge ran into with his draft picks is that he obviously had no use for them and wouldn’t take less than value. So we ended up with a lot of the Yabu kind of shitty stash lottery ticket picks.
I see this a lot too, but what are late first round picks worth?

Like in the Yabu year as Cellar-Door alluded to, the Celtics couldn't actually take a guy who was going to play that season because they needed the cap space. So what do you do? Two picks in that range got traded for veteran role players(Thad Young/Marco Belinelli), but the Celtics couldn't take on money that those teams were off loading. If you can't take money back for a late first, what can you get? At best, a different late first or two seconds. Would fans have been happy with that?

I think we just have to come around to the idea that once you get past the lottery, and many times not even that low, first round picks just aren't worth a lot.
 

mcpickl

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I don’t even know if we are speaking the same language as I had Jaylen as the upside guy (and the guy I wanted) while being the most anti-Bender guy on this site due to his low upside, stiffness, etc.
I don't know your specific rankings for past drafts, how could I?

I'm talking generally.

I think if Ainge was firing for upside only at all times, he'd have a lot more Bender/Fab Melo/Fultz busts on his record and not just an endless string of happening to hit on guys like Giannis and Gobert.

And the team would likely be worse off.


It felt pertinent to me if someone thinks Ainge draft philosophy should disqualify him from making the decisions going forward for the team.

Sorry if I'm wrong
 
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128

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Yeah, if Hayward never gets hurt you have a few benefits:
1. You have a real shot at a title in that window
2. He's more likely to re-sign
3. It's more likely you could have traded him if he wouldn't agree to an extension
4. He probably gets a lot more S&T interest.
One hundred percent. If Hayward stays healthy, there's a decent chance this all unfolds differently, to the C's (and Danny's) advantage.
 

lovegtm

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Thanks, I didn't start this thread to discuss Danny's drafting record or Hayward's leg. They're loosely relevant in evaluating whether to keep Ainge as GM I guess, but that's about it.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't know your specific rankings for past drafts, how could I?

I'm talking generally.

I think if Ainge was firing for upside only at all times, he'd have a lot more Bender/Fab Melo/Fultz busts on his record and not just an endless string of happening to hit on guys like Giannis and Gobert.

And the team would likely be worse off.




It felt pertinent to me if someone thinks Ainge draft philosophy should disqualify him from making the decisions going forward for the team.

Sorry if I'm wrong
I was referring to my opinion at the time of Bender’s upside being as a role player and Jaylen being as the high upside guy. Not criticizing anything only questioning our definitions of their ceilings.
 

HomeRunBaker

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One hundred percent. If Hayward stays healthy, there's a decent chance this all unfolds differently, to the C's (and Danny's) advantage.
I disagree. He was healthy when he showed zero interest in remaining in Boston.
 

lovegtm

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Guys, can I politely request no more Hayward's Leg/FA or Danny Draft retrospectives? This shit has been done to death, there are plenty of threads for it, and I wanted to talk about something different.

If you want to start your summer planning from the premise that Danny should be gone, that's cool, and I don't think it's crazy at all.
 

bankshot1

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I disagree. He was healthy when he showed zero interest in remaining in Boston.
I don't blame GH for wanting a fresh start anywhere else. He must have felt snakebit in Boston. But to dismiss the impact of his fall and fall from primacy wing to #3 behind the JnJ, seems a major variable to ignore in his decision making process. And there was the fact that 4/120 in Charlotte was juicier than the reported 4/100 in Boston.

Was in mid-type when the GH moratorium was requested.
 

nighthob

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There's zero chance even the owners will be willing to bring in a GM his first priority will be to move both Tatum and Brown. That ship has long sailed; Tatum and Brown are the core of this team for the next few years. Wyc ain't tanking.
Honestly they don’t need to tank. That Tatum contract is the most valuable asset in the NBA right now. Due to it coming with four years, they’d get a biblical haul for it. If Golden State or OKC came up with two high lottery picks (a very good chance for OKC), I’d bet both teams would empty the larder for Tatum. Even if they had the first pick. There are moves available with Tatum that don’t involve blowing things up and tanking.
 

lexrageorge

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Honestly they don’t need to tank. That Tatum contract is the most valuable asset in the NBA right now. Due to it coming with four years, they’d get a biblical haul for it. If Golden State or OKC came up with two high lottery picks (a very good chance for OKC), I’d bet both teams would empty the larder for Tatum. Even if they had the first pick. There are moves available with Tatum that don’t involve blowing things up and tanking.
Tatum is an All Star now. The lottery pick will not be an All Star for a few years. There's a lot of things that would have to go right, including lottery luck. Selling Tatum for the 2023 version of Fultz gets Ainge fired, or the equivalent of the quixotic "Memphis pick" that ends up being a garbage pick in a garbage draft gets Ainge fired.
 

nighthob

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Tatum is an All Star now. The lottery pick will not be an All Star for a few years. There's a lot of things that would have to go right, including lottery luck. Selling Tatum for the 2023 version of Fultz gets Ainge fired, or the equivalent of the quixotic "Memphis pick" that ends up being a garbage pick in a garbage draft gets Ainge fired.
Any deal would have to be this summer. So a Cade Cunningham trade wouldn’t be a theoretical. The reality is that since the contract gives the tam acquiring four years, they’d get a ginormous haul for it.
 

Swedgin

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I think the idea of moving Kemba at relatively little cost is fanciful. If he plays well enough that the contract is neutral or positive value, then we would want him in Green. So if you are going to move him you either have to pay or take back another negative asset.

Anyone want to try the John Wall experience?
 

lovegtm

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Honestly they don’t need to tank. That Tatum contract is the most valuable asset in the NBA right now. Due to it coming with four years, they’d get a biblical haul for it. If Golden State or OKC came up with two high lottery picks (a very good chance for OKC), I’d bet both teams would empty the larder for Tatum. Even if they had the first pick. There are moves available with Tatum that don’t involve blowing things up and tanking.
This is the kind of out-of-the-box thinking I'm here for. I don't think that Ainge would have the cajones to do this, but it's really intriguing.