I think there are a bunch of boxes to check off this offseason and maybe they try to check multiple boxes with 1 player. They need in my uninformed opinion: secondary scoring, another wing, a playmaking pg, a 3rd big upgrade that could be playable in the playoffs, and filling in the pipeline behind AL and Smart. I read somewhere and am not a huge NBA fan overall so please correct me if I am wrong. They can use the Fournier 17.1 TPE, wait a month, then trade that acquired player with Theis and Nesmith and theoretically take back someone making $37m/yr (125% of the salary going out). Now I'm not saying that they will or should do this, just that is an avenue they can use to add more talent.
Celtics Offseason Primer
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Not sure who the player is, but this is the offseason for Wyc to open up the checkbook. Use that 17m exception with future picks to add another Derrick White caliber bench piece. They might be setting themselves up for a warriors style tax bill in a few years, but it's pretty clear this team is at most one piece away.
Just scrolling through teams and salaries, someone like a Kyle Kuzma or a Jordan Clarkson might be available, would fit under the 17.1m, and would be huge improvements off the bench.
I wonder if looking back now they regret signing G league caliber guys with possible future potential to fill the bench in buyout season rather than actual vets, or if the best buy out guys never considered them because they didn't see them as actual contenders yet so they never had any actual options. Having more than 8 guys they could even consider putting on the court in meaningful minutes would have helped a lot in the finals.
Just scrolling through teams and salaries, someone like a Kyle Kuzma or a Jordan Clarkson might be available, would fit under the 17.1m, and would be huge improvements off the bench.
I wonder if looking back now they regret signing G league caliber guys with possible future potential to fill the bench in buyout season rather than actual vets, or if the best buy out guys never considered them because they didn't see them as actual contenders yet so they never had any actual options. Having more than 8 guys they could even consider putting on the court in meaningful minutes would have helped a lot in the finals.
Wiggins was always a top of the top athlete. He makes $33M a year. BOS couldn't afford him and probably couldn't afford anyone like him. Two-way wings don't grow on trees.
I know that.
What I mean is a buy-low 2way wing, not like Wiggins came out of nowhere or is reachable now.
Wood being shed (NPI), JaMychal Green's recent trade...seems like there are teams remaking their rosters. Maybe Brad sees a wing out there that might be undervalued, if such a thing is possible nowadays. Bey was mentioned upthread. I don't have someone particular in mind.
Edit: Wiggins was a huge deal whose stock had fallen a lot. Someone who was even a smaller deal whose stock has fallen or is blocked.
Not sure why the Pistons would give away their 2nd best long-term piece, who just turned 23, because they draft someone whose upside isn't much higher than the level Bey is already at.
Haven't we just learned that you can never have too many wings?
Haven't we just learned that you can never have too many wings?
Pat Connaughton would be an interesting pick up. He has an option year on his contract, but it is a good bet he won’t pick that up. So it's looking like he'll be a free agent, and - considering his size, skillset and hometown - he looks like he might be a good match for the Cs.
As much as we would all like the team to get another Brown the payroll situation makes it impossible, the TPE needs to be used in trade, not a sign & trade.
Also, no offense, but Murray has more upside than Bey. He’s a lot more athletic than Bey. Bey’s an other guy on the floor level player, Murray’s upside is more along the lines of high end third option.
Another team to look at is the Spurs. They actually do have too many wings, and are likely to add yet another in a week’s time. Between Kel Johnson, Dev Vassell, Lonnie Walker, and Josh Primo they’re pretty short on developmental time as is. And if they end up with someone like Ben Mathurin, AJ Griffin, or Johnny Davis in the draft then one of the four above is going to be Romeo Langforded.
Boston would need to help them out on another front to make it palatable. Such as eating the remaining $25 million on Olynyk’s contract (the Pistons are experiencing some real buyer’s remorse on that deal). They’re also going to be looking at moving Jerami Grant, which will mean yet more young players. So with a package of picks and eating cash leaving the Pistons with a TPE it’s within the realm of possibility.
Also, no offense, but Murray has more upside than Bey. He’s a lot more athletic than Bey. Bey’s an other guy on the floor level player, Murray’s upside is more along the lines of high end third option.
Another team to look at is the Spurs. They actually do have too many wings, and are likely to add yet another in a week’s time. Between Kel Johnson, Dev Vassell, Lonnie Walker, and Josh Primo they’re pretty short on developmental time as is. And if they end up with someone like Ben Mathurin, AJ Griffin, or Johnny Davis in the draft then one of the four above is going to be Romeo Langforded.
I don't take offense - I just don't think Murray is a particularly good prospect & think he's overrated athletically.
If the Pistons are dumb enough to staple things to Olynyk to get off his contract in this stage of their development they are an even worse franchise than I thought.
I was mentally kicking the tires on Lonnie Walker a bit earlier. He's still only 23 & an RFA.
Bey is not much of an athlete. Murray doesn’t have to be Jaylen Brown to be a lot more athletic than Bey (I’m guessing it was the athleticism that took Bey off Ainge’s radar). Bey’s not some star in the making. He’s a 3&D big wing with an erratic shot and terrible shot mechanics. But useful in a limited role if you have enough scorers around him that he only has to shoot wide open treys.
I mean yeah, I guess technically Murray has a significantly higher ceiling because Bey's isn't high, I just don't think most of Murray's likely outcomes are a more useful player than Bey.
He's basically just a shorter, slightly more athletic Luke Garza
a lot of what is being pined for just went to the Mavs in Christian Woods...He could have been a #3 scorer off the bench and would have fit the TPE with a future first + Nesmith going to HOU... spilled milk and all
Kyle Anderson and Delon Wright both play D, are strong w/the ball, and cheap. They would continue to be my targets
PJ Washington and Bruce Brown would be interesting targets in bigger deals.
Kornet, Stauskas, Fitts, Morgan can all collect their playoff bonuses and prepare for Summer League and G-League/overseas opportunities
Kyle Anderson and Delon Wright both play D, are strong w/the ball, and cheap. They would continue to be my targets
PJ Washington and Bruce Brown would be interesting targets in bigger deals.
Kornet, Stauskas, Fitts, Morgan can all collect their playoff bonuses and prepare for Summer League and G-League/overseas opportunities
I suggested this in another thread a few months ago, and didn’t get much feedback, but what would people think of upgrading (?) the center position with Ayton? Something centered around Timelord for Ayton? Say Theis+Neamith+TL for Ayton?
Would that be an upgrade (money aside)? My impression of Ayton on the defensive end is that he’s not going to alter shots as much as TL, but he has better lateral quickness and could keep up with PGs in switches much better. Does he bring enough on the offensive end to represent a significant upgrade in the half court where the team tends to stagnate? I think TL brings 80% of what DA offers at 30% of the cost, but the team might just need that to get over the hump. Really interested in hearing from people that have watched a good amount of Ayton/Suns games.
Both played about 30m pg this season, and DA has been more durable. 2022 numbers:
DA 16/10/1/1
TL 10/10/1/2
Would that be an upgrade (money aside)? My impression of Ayton on the defensive end is that he’s not going to alter shots as much as TL, but he has better lateral quickness and could keep up with PGs in switches much better. Does he bring enough on the offensive end to represent a significant upgrade in the half court where the team tends to stagnate? I think TL brings 80% of what DA offers at 30% of the cost, but the team might just need that to get over the hump. Really interested in hearing from people that have watched a good amount of Ayton/Suns games.
Both played about 30m pg this season, and DA has been more durable. 2022 numbers:
DA 16/10/1/1
TL 10/10/1/2
Hate to break it to you, but anyone you sign using the Taxpayer MLE is going to be "kinda meh." If they weren't meh they would be getting paid more and the Celtics could not afford them..
Not advocating Connaughton, just think its important to have realistic expectations as to who Brad can get in free agency.
Ayton is a free agent and Boston can’t do sign & trades without a huge payroll cut. Sign & trades just aren’t doable for them. It’s trades and MLE signings for them.
Yeah, if we can get him for just reasonable cash, it's totally fine. I was just trying to temper the whole let's do whatever it takes to get this guy in here stuff.
To get a better level of player we would definitely need to include assets.
I don’t think anyone is looking to free up space to get him on a max contract, but Connaughton’s shooting, size at his position and postseason experience feel like a great match. We definitely could have used someone like him on our bench against Golden State. But yeah, it would need to be for the right price, and there’s always the hope that playing in his hometown would be attractive to him.
Huerter with the 17 million TPE and GP2 with the MLE are my two targets.
Smart
Brown
Tatum
Horford
Rob
Huerter
GP2
Grant
Pritchard
Theis
Smart
Brown
Tatum
Horford
Rob
Huerter
GP2
Grant
Pritchard
Theis
I don’t see a real scenario where we add GP2 as I assume the Warriors won’t let him go at the MLE and we can’t go over that. I’m also not sure what happened to White here.
Don't you have to trade to use the tpe? What are you giving up to get Heurter? I like this, just wondering how hard it is to get done.
Technically you can use it in a sign & trade, except that in the S&T scenario the luxury tax line becomes a hard cap and Boston’s already over the tax for next year. So using $17 million to sign a FA requires sending out Al Horford to a team with the cap space to absorb him.
Put another way, Boston needs to find someone making $17.1 million or less and acquire them with draft picks.
https://hoopshype.com/salaries/players/
This gives us (assuming it's accurate) a list of players by salary. It's currently set for 2021-22, but just look one column over and you can at least get a ballpark look at the list of guys making $17.1 million or less (scroll down).
Here are some names of people that might possibly help (note: they're going to be flawed players, with some real strengths and yet some real weaknesses; if they didn't have weaknesses, they'd be making a lot more money...thus, it would be an interesting decision as to which guys with which weaknesses Boston would be willing to add).
Normal Powell (16.8m) - 19.0 points, .419 from three
Duncan Robinson (16.9m) - 10.9 points, .372 from three
Malik Beasley (15.6m) - 12.1 points, .391 from three
Luke Kennard (13.7m) - 11.9 points, .449 from three
Robert Covington (12.3m) - 8.5 points, .378 from three
Danny Green (10.0m) - 5.9 points, .380 from three
Jae Crowder (10.1m) - 9.4 points, .348 from three
There are more of course. But someone like Crowder - no clue if Phoenix would move him - is maybe the kind of guy they could use. He's sturdy on defense, he's a veteran presence, he's familiar with Boston of course, and he shoots pretty well (last 2 years, .369 from three). He's not a great shooter, but he's decent enough given his size and defensive ability.
I like Kennard, as he is 6'5", and can really shoot (career .425 from three). Even with Kawhi out, he only started 13 games this year for the Clippers, and though he was 5th in minutes played, he almost always came off the bench. He's not a great defender, (113 d rating in 2021-22), but the Clips found a way to hide him on D. He's a solid playmaker and can score. Solid player for them though, but he'd probably be a great fit for Boston. No idea if they'd be willing to trade him, but they don't currently have a 2022 first round pick. Neither does Boston, so obviously the Celtics can't trade them a first rounder.
But not having a first round pick this year still eats into the roster building process for the future. Maybe Boston could deal away Nesmith (maybe the Clips think he could approximate Kennard in a year or two?) and a 2023 first round pick and pick up Kennard.
You would be rolling the TPE forward. Plug Huerter into the soon to be expiring Fournier TPE, and open a new TPE for White, giving Stevens another year to fill it.
EDIT: Not necessarily advocating for this trade. Just saying how it would work in the context of the TPE.
Ah, got it. Yeah, I don’t really see how swapping out White for Huerter helps much but I could see the value of rolling the TPE forward. My hope though is to find someone this summer to use it on and keep White.
I've looked up the list a bunch of times in the past few months, I guess since the Celtics didn't use the Fournier TPE in the White deal, and I landed on a completely different list of names.
I ended up with Doug McDermott and old friends Marcus Morris and Josh Richardson(a very recent new friend) as best fits.
As backup plans/worse fits if I couldn't get one of those three, I looked at another old friend in Kelly Olynyk and Kentavius Caldwell Pope.
I'd be looking to target guys who could play forward, and either on rebuilding teams (Richardson), overpaid (Morris) or both (McDermott), since they'd be more likely to be available and in any deal I'd be making them take Theis back.
Mook really would have fit this team well this year and might have been enough to get them over the hump. He is definitely in the mold of player they need to pursue going forward.
I could get behind Mook now that the Jay’s are more grown up and have more gravitas. He also probably would have elbowed Draymond in the face at some point, which would have been fun to watch.
Using the TPE to acquire a player to eventually staple to Theis ($8.7M) + Nesmith ($3.8M) isn't the worst idea. Not 100% positive about the rule there. In theory that would get you a $29.5M player OR
Mook or JRich on the TPE would be welcomed back with open arms.
Letting the Fournier TPE expire would be disappointing after the leaps this team made and the playoff experience the top 8 got. Time to backfill in around them with the proverbial "veteran ring chasers" and pay the TaxMan. The team needs to be deep so they can temper starter regular-season minutes and splash out load-managed days galore.
ALSO Kyle Anderson on the taxpayer MLE ($6.4M) is my hope. He made $10M last year. Kyle had a down year but will be 29 next season and maybe he's Horford-lite for future seasons. Would a 2-3yr deal be enticing? He takes care of the ball and plays D. He's the type of role player contenders just drool over (but bottom feeders ignore) so there will be TPE competition for his services.
Another ex-Spur Delon Wright wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. Maybe could be had on vet minimum?
The other tires they kick with the TPE or vet min (most will cost more): Connaughton, DiVincenzo, Brown, Boucher, Batum, Harris, Martin twins, Otto Porter, GP2, Aaron Holiday, Rubio, Dragic, House, McGee, Nwora, Jalen Smith, Hartenstein, Thad Young
That's a fair amount of rocks for Brad to turn over. Plenty of roster spots available so a vet min or two wouldn't be shocking.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/06/top-50-nba-free-agents-of-2022.html
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/02/updated-mid-level-bi-annual-projections-for-2022-23.html
Mook or JRich on the TPE would be welcomed back with open arms.
Letting the Fournier TPE expire would be disappointing after the leaps this team made and the playoff experience the top 8 got. Time to backfill in around them with the proverbial "veteran ring chasers" and pay the TaxMan. The team needs to be deep so they can temper starter regular-season minutes and splash out load-managed days galore.
ALSO Kyle Anderson on the taxpayer MLE ($6.4M) is my hope. He made $10M last year. Kyle had a down year but will be 29 next season and maybe he's Horford-lite for future seasons. Would a 2-3yr deal be enticing? He takes care of the ball and plays D. He's the type of role player contenders just drool over (but bottom feeders ignore) so there will be TPE competition for his services.
Another ex-Spur Delon Wright wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. Maybe could be had on vet minimum?
The other tires they kick with the TPE or vet min (most will cost more): Connaughton, DiVincenzo, Brown, Boucher, Batum, Harris, Martin twins, Otto Porter, GP2, Aaron Holiday, Rubio, Dragic, House, McGee, Nwora, Jalen Smith, Hartenstein, Thad Young
That's a fair amount of rocks for Brad to turn over. Plenty of roster spots available so a vet min or two wouldn't be shocking.
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/06/top-50-nba-free-agents-of-2022.html
https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/02/updated-mid-level-bi-annual-projections-for-2022-23.html
IRT using the Fournier TPE and then stapling to Nesmith and Theis, someone with better CBA chops can correct me if wrong, but I believe it is allowable if you wait 30 days after using the TPE and they can bring back up to 125% of salary going out. Which means they could theoretically bring back someone making 37m/yr.
You'd have to wait two months to trade someone after you traded for him if you're aggregating his salary, which you would be doing in this scenario.
I would be shocked if anything like this happened anyway because that's an enormous tax bill, from a team that has ducked the tax two years in a row.
I can't see a scenario where Wyc even allows them to use the Fournier TPE and the taxpayer midlevel this season, even if they dump Theis and Nesmith off. Expecting even more than that seems extremely improbable.
https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Journal/Issues/2022/06/06/Upfront/NBA-Finals.aspx#:~:text=, they have now cemented themselves,during the 2021-22 season.
The Warriors can easily justify their tax bills.
Wyc & Co will need to sharpen their pencils and figure out the revenue & LT asset value increase due to winning.
Forbes pegged the Celtics value at $3.55B (pre-Trail Blazers sale rumors and FINALS run).
NBA tax bills may not be a bad investment if winning a CHiP increases LT asset values 1-2% more a year.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2021/10/18/the-nbas-most-valuable-teams-2021-22-new-york-knicks-lead-a-trio-now-worth-over-5-billion-each/?sh=47690588d32c
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Oh, I have no doubt Wyc can afford to pay the tax. That's never been in question. The question is, will he.
He could've afforded it this year too, and last year. But he didn't want to pay it.
I'd guess he'll pay the tax next year. But deep enough to use the Fournier TPE, and use the taxpayer MLE and keep Theis?
I'd be willing to bet quite a lot that will not happen.
Championship aspirations the last 2 years were dreamy at best. So avoiding TAXES pre-JAY peak years made sense. Basically, 99% of the Board was fine with cap-saving/repeater avoidance measures last season with the Theis/Bulls giveaway.
Guaranteeing pre-finals Horford's full amount meant a commitment to tax payments in 2022-23. They have entered the Championship/peak-JAY/GFIN window. It will be interesting to see how big Wyc's checkbook is? There will be external pressure and they will be under the media microscope
I have ZERO idea how far Wyc will go and wouldn't bet against you or @nighthob when it comes to CAP gymnastics. BUT the CAP approach will be different NOW than the previous two season
If Wyc won’t pay the tax bill to improve a team on the cusp of a championship beyond vet min players, he will be rightly pilloried, especially after all the moves over the last year designed to increase flexibility for this exact situation. A shark would let POBOBS go to town with the TPE, MLE, and as many vet min ring chasers as want to join (and fit).
I mean, it's fair to say trading for Derrick White was kind of a go for it now move, no?
And Wyc still elected to not pay the tax this year, when they made the finals, and really could've used another guy.
And I agree the CAP approach will be different NOW than the previous two seasons, just not as different as some people here are expecting.
I don't believe Wyc isn't suddenly going to become a Ballmer or Lacob.
If they won the championship, Jaylen Browns incentive for winning the title would've put them into the tax.
Alas, he did not achieve that incentive.
Saved Wyc 10 million bucks though! Congrats Wyc!
I’d be surprised by that timeline but not by an effort to keep the TPE slot alive past 7/18, acquiring a player into it at least up to the threshold of the apron so as not be hard capped.
I'm not sure that's exactly how I'd classify the White trade. When the Celtics acquired White on February 10 they had just ascended to 7th in the EC with a 31-25 record. They were finally trending up, but still just a month removed from a frustrating .500 first half of the season.
At the time we were all still loudly wondering whether the Tatum/Brown/Smart core was too dysfunctional to even have a future. It was certainly a move to try to win this year, but not entirely in the GFIN, mortgage the future sense.
I think benhogan is spot on with his assertion that the cap will be handled differently going forward than it has been. I do buy the line that Wyc is managing the cap situation to avoid paying a repeater tax as long as he can. Assuming a Tatum SuperMax extension, we're looking at a potential ~8 year window of contention, so trying to push that penalty back a little makes sense to me.
We do have the Big 3 years as a little clue into what Wyc might be willing spend in luxury tax.
With a team that was definitely a championship contender they paid $8.2m, $8.3m, and $14.9m the first 3 years, roughly 12% of the cap the first 2 years, and 21% the 3rd. Ten percent of the cap today would be $14.9m.
With a team that was definitely a championship contender they paid $8.2m, $8.3m, and $14.9m the first 3 years, roughly 12% of the cap the first 2 years, and 21% the 3rd. Ten percent of the cap today would be $14.9m.
Yeah, I agree he might pay this much tax.
I'm talking about the people in here theorizing Wyc might let Brad use the TPE, the taxpayer midlevel, and keep the rest of his roster intact.
Let's just say as an example, San Antonio just says, you know what, you can have Doug McDermott for a second round pick.
Then Brad signs a guy for the taxpayer MLE.
Even if he cuts all the non-guaranteed guys on the roster and replaces them with rookie minimum guys, that team is 24M over the tax.
Then the tax on that 24M is 59M.
So the total cost on going over the tax is 83M, not even counting the tax payout he'd receive for staying under because I don't think that's realistic this year.
That's, you know, a lot.
A very big gulp for Wyc there.
I think he'll go over the tax. But I don't think he's going that far over the tax.