It'll be a good test but a loss wouldn't be surprising or unexpected, especially playing shorthanded on the 2nd night of a back to back.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Agree with the overall sentiment but I wouldn’t so easily dismiss hitting open 3’s. If this team is up near the top of the league (again) in 3pt% it’s going to be significant. (Of course the two biggest concerns in this regard didn’t play.)
If Jaylen and Gordon DNP, I'd really want MaMo on that 2nd unit as the main scoring option.
Have Baynes start to guard Kat (w/Horford on Gibson).
The next 7 games, leading up to a visit on the 21st from Milwaukee, are all eminently winnable (NY, Chi, NO, Wash, Atl, Det, Pho). I'm hopeful that we'll see this team put together a nice little run going into Xmas, and make up some of the distance between themselves and Toronto.
The MIN color guy said something that really sums up my feelings: "When the Cs are hitting their 3P shots, they are really tough to beat. And when they aren't, it's a struggle."
Assuming my failing eyes aren't deceiving me, the Cs have only lost twice where thy shot better from 3P than their opponents: the IND game that maybe they probably should have won and the Joe Ingles "I can play this game for my grandkids" game.
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Stealing from DD's post in the gamethread because it deserves to be watched over and over. This is the epitome of the Marcus Smart Experience. The entire sequence is just so Marcus.
The other thing to add (because I too have watched this too many times) is that during the entire thing, the only C who doesn't get a touch - actually he doesn't even move much - is Horford. Smart intercepts the ball, loses the handle, Mook, in a savvy move punches the ball in the other direction, Smart, stone cold chillin', grabs it and tosses it to Tatum who dishes to Kyrie who lobs to Tatum. Why doesn't Horford care like the rest of the team? Maybe he should be traded along with Rozier...
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Sarcasm noted. Horford’s defense clogging the lane forced the bad pass that led to the Smart deflection. Let’s not trade him just yet unless AD is coming back in return.
This is where his numbers always should have been based on his abilities. Smart isn't "shooting better" as in he's improved his shot. What he has done is eliminate his bad shots which have always dragged down his percentages.
I'd classify it as Smart hasn't improved as a shooter so much as he's improved his shot selection to be more efficient. I'm becoming a huge fan of this new version.
I agree with this. He is being more selective, and that is good. The his A/TO reflects that he's taking better care of the ball as well.
If he keeps this shot selection up, while still making ~35% of open 3s and doing all the stuff he does, he'll be one of the best contracts in the league. It's amusing he only did this after getting paid, because he would have gotten paid more as this player.
I imagine this is a pretty common occurrence for every team in the league
PJ Dozier played the other night. I assume Bird is always one of the two inactives of the 17 players under contract. Is Lemon the other one and Dozier has theoretically been "active" all along?
There's only 13 active for any one game, so this may have been the first time he's been active. Horford and Brown were out, and Lemon cut and Bird suspended. Dozier was back to inactive against Minny with Horford back.
Kinda? Dozier played yesterday in the G league and put up 28 points and 14 assists. He's averaging 21.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.3 assists in 12 games.
The other inactive is Robert Williams when the team is fully healthy.
He can be frustrating sometimes but this team needs Marcus Smart in the worst way. I'm so happy he came back.
Well, at least for the teams who take a lot of 3s every game.
But if these games really come down to a 3P shooting contest, I'm optimistic. The Cs generate a lot of wide open 3Ps and have a lot of guys who shoot them at a high %. My eyes confirm what statistics are saying: the Cs get way more good, open 3Ps than most of the teams in the league.
If we could pair that with more dunks, lay-ups and FTAs instead of long 2s we'd really be cooking.
It does feel like progress is being made, starting w/Gordon's 10 made free throws.
Still, want to see more FGA/3PA coming from the better shooters (ie Tatum, MaMo). And the most efficient rotations playing more minutes.
Yes, I was thinking the same thing last night. Only Kyrie appears in like the top 150 of Drives (per game), if I read that right.
Gordon got to the line because he was going to rim. Let's see more of that.
I warned of us being fooled by a couple good performances against this portion of our schedule a week ago but it is not nothing that we ARE seeing progress as it is better than the alternative even against our schedule of the past week. This trend continues against the Knicks, Bulls, Pelicans, Wizards, and Hawks in our next 5 so it is a good chance to REALLY show progress then test it out later in the month and into January when the schedule begins to heat back up. There is a good chance that this team reels off a ton of wins in a row......not doing so against the upcoming creampuffs would be concerning.
Minnesota has also been a completely different team defensively since Covington arrived, so I weight that more highly than some Hawks game.
Yes I agree. This is why I tabbed this game as a very big test at the top of this page and we passed it with flying colors. It is one reason why I'm expecting a long win streak coming up as Brad's changes have seemed to steer this ship in the right direction.
Absolutely, but prior to this we had craptastic performances against bad teams, so all we can do is improve against who the NBA scheduled us to play.
And as folks have said (including you) the improvement we wanted to see wasn't necessarily the shots falling, but the types of shots and the style of play. We seem to have seen that--drives are up, Tatum's long twos are down, Smart is starting, Hayward getting more aggressive, etc. Those are "process improvements", and that's the first step.
In the Cs first 19 games, culminating with the stinker in NY, Cs were shooting .435 from the field, which included .342 3P% and .767 FT%.
Perhaps more importantly, in losses, they shot .432 from the field, which included .319 3P% and .755 FT%.
Since the NYK game, the Cs are averaging 117.6 ppg by shooting .488 FG%, WITH .419 3P% and .889 FT%.
If you take the shots attempts in the last five games and multiply them by the percentages of the 9 losing games, you get this:
2P = 53.8 * .508 = 54.7
3P = 36.4 * .319 = 34.7
FT = 16.2 *.755 = 12.2
That's 16 point worse folks.
Good shooting cures a lot of woes. Do I think they are getting much better shots? My gut feeling (no sophisticated analysis on this is) that they are not, but I will say:
(1) Removing JB's unfortunate poor shooting start to this season has probably been an overall plus;
(2) As put forth in other threads, Marcus Smart has been shooting much better lately for reasons no one really knows;
(3) GH is making a ton more shots and getting more aggressive; and
(4) Of all of the players, I think JT's shot selection is much better through the last five games than it was the first 20.
Perhaps more importantly, in losses, they shot .432 from the field, which included .319 3P% and .755 FT%.
Since the NYK game, the Cs are averaging 117.6 ppg by shooting .488 FG%, WITH .419 3P% and .889 FT%.
If you take the shots attempts in the last five games and multiply them by the percentages of the 9 losing games, you get this:
2P = 53.8 * .508 = 54.7
3P = 36.4 * .319 = 34.7
FT = 16.2 *.755 = 12.2
That's 16 point worse folks.
Good shooting cures a lot of woes. Do I think they are getting much better shots? My gut feeling (no sophisticated analysis on this is) that they are not, but I will say:
(1) Removing JB's unfortunate poor shooting start to this season has probably been an overall plus;
(2) As put forth in other threads, Marcus Smart has been shooting much better lately for reasons no one really knows;
(3) GH is making a ton more shots and getting more aggressive; and
(4) Of all of the players, I think JT's shot selection is much better through the last five games than it was the first 20.
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Yes, this passes the eye test as well. No longer are we seeing flat-footed "open" shots off one pass. There is dribble penetration, kickouts and crisp rotations leading to these same "open" shots now being taken in rhythm.
I've had coffee, but maybe I'm missing something. Your first sentence says what they Celtics were shooting in the first 19 games. Your second sentence says the same thing with different percentages. What am I missing? Is the second group in losses?
Agreed - I am confused here. TO add it isn't obvious where the .508 comes from in the table. I assume it is the 2pt% that was pulled from that same second group - but its not referenced or obvious.
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The sample sizes are still small, but I am coming around on my thinking regarding the "open shot" metric. I'm with HRB that there are 2 types of "open shots", those that are taken in rhythm, and those that are just taken because the player got the ball and doesn't seem to know what else to do with it. I haven't watched a ton of the early games, but too many times I was screaming "pass" when the Celtics were taking shots and screaming "shoot or drive" when they decided to pass. That hasn't happened the last 2 games.
There's also the fact that when they missed those static open shots early on, they had nothing to fall back on. Now they're playing with purpose much more of the time, so the open shots are in rhythm, and they don't have to get in their own heads when a few don't fall: they can just keep attacking and let the chips fall where they may.
Yes, the second set of numbers were losses only. I guess I needed more coffee. Have edited post to reflect that.
Rozier with Hayward coming off the bench: 6 games, .438/.400/.500 (2 FTA), 8.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.8 steals in 20.1 mpg.
Rozier works better with Hayward because defenders can't sag off Gordon when he's running the point like they can Smart. This is especially nice since it appears Smart is a better fit in the starting lineup since he isn't looking to score in a lineup that already has more than enough scoring.
I wonder what happens when Jaylen returns. I doubt they will mess with the starting lineup, and to date, Jaylen hasn't looked well alongside Hayward. Maybe that will change if they are both coming off the bench where there are less scoring options. A Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier bench could be scary good and give the Celtics a huge advantage in games if they all bought into it.
I hope they don't mess with the starting lineup anyway. I really like the offensive balance. 1 alpha scorer, 1 soon to be alpha scorer, 2 guys who get their offense in the flow of the game and another who isn't look for his shot at all. Before we had 4 guys looking to create their own offense.
Rozier works better with Hayward because defenders can't sag off Gordon when he's running the point like they can Smart. This is especially nice since it appears Smart is a better fit in the starting lineup since he isn't looking to score in a lineup that already has more than enough scoring.
I wonder what happens when Jaylen returns. I doubt they will mess with the starting lineup, and to date, Jaylen hasn't looked well alongside Hayward. Maybe that will change if they are both coming off the bench where there are less scoring options. A Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier bench could be scary good and give the Celtics a huge advantage in games if they all bought into it.
I hope they don't mess with the starting lineup anyway. I really like the offensive balance. 1 alpha scorer, 1 soon to be alpha scorer, 2 guys who get their offense in the flow of the game and another who isn't look for his shot at all. Before we had 4 guys looking to create their own offense.
So the bench could be 2 of the 3 leading scorers from last season's postseason, plus an improving Hayward?
Yep. And Rozier as de facto scorer with Hayward initiating mostly and both Hayward and Brown as secondary scorers on the second unit works. Of course you don't sub in 4-5 guys at once, but the roles are solidifying.
Mark me down as unconcerned about Jaylen fitting in with GH and TR off the bench. All three will get real minutes and real chances to impact the scoreboard.
That isn't necessarily a positive if having Jaylen out there is counterproductive. What is his role this year? What is his role moving forward? I don't see much opportunity for him here barring injury.
I'm in the same boat as you. Jaylen's current and future roles with this team are a little murky. Would be curious to know what his trade value is around the league.
Brown is interesting because he's a player that could help a team now while still being part of their future. I'm just not sure what kind of return he would get though. Any team looking to trade young talent for him will be trading worse young talent. Other teams will also offer a player better than Jaylen if a star becomes available and the Celtics don't really have much salary to match in deals.
Denver might want him, and while Morris, Beasley, Hernangomez and Lyles are nice pieces, they aren't worth Jaylen. Sacramento might want him, but they aren't going to offer Fox, Hield, or Bagley.
And even if the Celtics traded Brown for a lesser return, that return couldn't be a scorer or he wouldn't really have a roll either. Maybe they could package Rozier and Brown together for a better player.
Long story short, Jaylen seems like a good 2nd piece in a trade for a blockbuster but I'm not sure what he fetches on his own.
Maybe Portland would be interested, but is Zach Collins really enough?
Or Brown and Rozier to Dallas for DSJ since people are convinced DSJ and Doncic aren't a good pairing. Who says no to Bamba for Brown? Neither? Both? Isaac?
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His value would be greater for a rebuilding team who can move a veteran to improve their future growth. I can't imagine any contenders wanting to acquire a young guy who doesn't yet really have a clue how to play a secondary role nor wishes to with his extension coming up. Someone like Ariza would be much more desirable for a contender from both a performance fit and contract perspective.
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The problem is every team in the west is a contender outside of the Suns and very few vets make similar money to Jaylen Brown. Do the C's really want to trade Brown for Terrance Ross or Markieff Morris? Is a bad team going to give up a lottery pick for Brown?