We are in agreement.
This is one area where the personal style of Stevens and the ex player gravitas of Ainge make a good combination imo. And if it becomes a lost cause, then Ainge can move him.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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This is one area where the personal style of Stevens and the ex player gravitas of Ainge make a good combination imo. And if it becomes a lost cause, then Ainge can move him.
It's only one game, but maybe they bought into it. Someone else said that Rozier should be the primary scorer on the 2nd unit but I'd have Hayward and Brown ahead of him. I think Rozier should basically live behind the arc and that's what he did last night. Jaylen is better at getting to the line and finishing. Hayward should be about 50/50 looking for his shot and creating for others.
Over the last 4, the Celtics are averaging 124.5 points per game. They aren't going to maintain that, but I think they will score considerably more than the 109.5 they are averaging now. If they continue to play at a fast pace and score roughly 114-115 a night, there will be plenty of offense to go around.
And on another note, I do not like Brad Wanamaker at all. Everything he does looks forced. I want to see more of Dozier but isn't he limited to a certain amount of games and not eligible for the playoffs? Are 2 way players able to sign a real contract during the season?
Those scoring averages of late are skewed by the defensive competition of the Knick, Cavs, and Pelicans (I warned of this last week).....just as they were skewed the other way by games v. OKC, Utah, Toronto, Indiana and the like. There is a very real possibility that nothing at all has changed with how we are playing offense with everything predicated by the level of our opponents defense. Either way the timing couldn't have been more perfect for us to feast on the cupcake portion of our schedule to sort things out.
The numbers are unsustainable, but they looked much worse against bad teams earlier in the year. The first Knicks game, which they won, looks like a different team if you watch vs yesterday. The ball is moving, players are decisive, and things don't look out of sync.
Agreed.
Of course the competition has been worse, and let's not start declaring anything solved. But if you don't see a difference in flow and attitude, you're not watching the games. Guys are moving more decisively at both ends, and it's paying off.
Yeah, first 20 games they averaged 106.3. So over the last 4 games, they've increased that by 3 points. The 109.3 per is good for 18th in the league. 114 would be good for 8th.
A lot of their early struggles were due to schedule and shots not falling, but there have been actual changes. Most of it is Hayward's improving health and finding rotations that actually work.
I agree.....I'm only questioning how much of it is due to defensive indifference and how much is actual improvement on offense. We know Yi Jianlian can score against a chair and we know the Celtics are in the midst of a stretch where they should put up 120+ every night and should continue to do so over the next week. Neither tell the entire story.
We aren't going to learn much until the end of the month and into January.
We put up 128 with the Marcii going 0-11 from 3. It just seemed like the Knicks weren't putting up much resistance. I remember 2 possessions where they actually did play D and the announcers were stunned at the difference.
I'm guessing this is consistent with their number of possessions in these games with increased Pace......but maybe not as the league as a whole has toned it down a bit since that torrid start to the year.
Not in spot to do research on phone but what is our avg pace for the season and our avg in these last 4 games?
Pace for the season is 100.3, last 4 games 99.5
You don't have to be convinced they'll be a top 5 offense going forward, but the evidence is really clear that something clicked the past 2 weeks and is different now. They're playing bad competition, but playing it in a different way than earlier in the year.
The biggest difference in the advance stats over the last four, is in FG.
Efg for the season (excluding last 4) is 50.5. Last 4 games is 59.8.
True Shooting tells the same story: 53.8 v. 61.4%
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+1. I'll echo this.
Improvement due to:
1. Hayward slowly getting healthier
2. Hayward placed in a better role leading the 2nd rotation
3. Hayward initiating offense also puts Rozier in a better situation
4. Balanced rotations with a lunchpail player (Smart, Baynes or Theis) on the floor
5. Jaylen not playing (he was hot garbage for the first 20) until last night when 2017 Jaylen showed up
I'll continue to beat the drum that the Celtics can improve when Brad starts giving Baynes and Theis more minutes at the 5 (with Al sliding over to the 4). Using advanced filters from NBA.com, just about every Celtic pairing with Baynes or Theis has a positive net rating last season. This season the numbers are even more pronounced. If you pair Baynes and Theis with the other top 8 rotational players, they are the ONLY 2 Celtic players with a positive net rating with every single top rotational player. With 30% of this season complete, the whole concept that Baynes/Theis can't play the 5 for meaningful minutes this season because of pace of play is nonsense.
https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&GroupQuantity=2&sort=GROUP_NAME&dir=-1
Doesn't Brad get credit for this due to placing them only in highly advantageous positions while not exposing them to unfavorable matchups? Doc was masterful in this regard back when he maximized both Big Baby and Powe's skillset in these matchups despite their limitations.
I love me some Brad but can't he push more minutes their way? 14.5 mins for Baynes and 12 mins for Theis is too light IMO.
As far as advantageous positions, how about last night? Brad put Baynes and Theis on the floor at the same time last night, what the heck is that? I'd put MaMo at the 4 with Theis in the 2nd rotation. And start Aron the first 8 minutes on Kanter. So Brad is still not going situational with those guys.
Brad is way too wedded to Al strictly playing the 5. Al has only played 38mins with Baynes and 4 mins with Theis this season, even though when paired with Aron they are a +15. PLUS Al was extremely effective with Aron last season (+11.8, his most effective pairing amongst rotational players).
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On net, you are taking talent off the floor to do that, though. The minutes Rozier, Baynes, and Theis get are minutes where better players are sitting on the bench. If they average, say, 48 minutes between them, that leaves the best 7 players getting 27 each.
Seems a bit odd to push for this precisely when the team is starting to find a few lineups that work well. The biggest priority, as long as the team is winning, should be finding minutes for Brown and Rozier to maintain their value. Wing-heavy lineups do that.
Rozier? where did I suggest he should get more minutes? Rozier is injury insurance at this point.
I listed why I thought the team was playing better, Baynes/Theis more minutes is something very small and on the edges. This will start happening as players get rest days, like we recently saw with Horford (against the Cavs). So minutes' impact on other so-called better players will be de minimis.
I think we'll eventually start seeing Baynes average 20mins and Theis 15mins (w/less DNPs) at the 5 with Al playing more minutes at the 4. The teams net rating from the last 2 seasons points to the Celtics being more efficient/better when they are on the floor. We need players (like Baynes, Smart, Theis) on the floor willing to defer shots to the best shooters (Tatum, Kyrie, MaMo, GH, Al). Baynes, Smart, Theis ALSO do the dirty work the so-called "better players" don't do IE set screens/picks, box out, take charges, tip outs, help on defense, protect the rim, dive on the floor, etc these don't show up in the box score but affects the score. We have net ratings to show the effect these "role/dirty work/lunchpail/indians" (whatever you want to call them) players have on the game.
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Hence why I qualified with "as long as the team is winning."
However, beyond winning immediately, maximizing Brown as an asset, either for the Celtics or as the centerpiece of a trade, is utterly critical for the team's improvement. This is even more true now that the SAC/MEM picks are looking like they won't be as blue-chip.
But I should follow up on the Baynes/Theis thing, benhogan. I agree that it's not great for Horford to bang with bigs every night, and they need him fresh for the playoffs.
Baynes has shown that he can effectively spell Horford in the starting lineup, and it's probably a good idea to give Horford significantly more rest, even down to playing 20 minutes a lot of nights. Those are the minutes Baynes and Theis should be taking, not minutes from wings and guards.
Baynes has shown that he can effectively spell Horford in the starting lineup, and it's probably a good idea to give Horford significantly more rest, even down to playing 20 minutes a lot of nights. Those are the minutes Baynes and Theis should be taking, not minutes from wings and guards.
Ok. I get where you are coming from.You want to eventually deal Brown (and maybe Rozier at the trade deadline), and maximize their value. Makes sense.
I think both will benefit playing on the 2nd unit together against inferior competition. As Gordon heals/improves they will also be the beneficiaries of his ability to distribute. On the 2nd rotation, they will be the main shooters with guys like Theis/Baynes deferring to them.
As far as seeing small ball/all shooter rotations, haven't we've seen enough of 5 guys on the perimeter looking for their shot? Sticking Jaylen on a rotation where he is the #5 option on offense really doesn't help his value or the teams point differential.
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We seem to be in violent agreement, with some minor tweaks regarding Horford/Baynes/Theis.
The Jaylen/Rozier/Hayward second unit seems to be playing great. The only question is how to maximize the minutes all the wings and guards get, both for player development and asset value. I also agree that all-small rotations don't make much sense during the regular season.
Isn't the easy solution to say there are 48 minutes per night for the bigs, give 30-34 of those to Horford in elite/test games (Warriors, Raptors, Bucks, etc), and in the rest of the games to play Horford for 0-25 minutes with Baynes and Theis picking up the rest? This also would help the team improve most, since during the playoffs all of the key lineups will be one big max, except maybe against the Sixers.
Baynes is at his career low in minutes since he began being a full-time rotation player 5 years ago. He's never averaged 20mpg in any season back when the league was bigger even last year when his 18 mpg were a necessity due to all the man games lost due to injury. What evidence do you see that would make anyone feel Baynes would be getting MORE minutes than last year or even more than his 14 this year?
You keep referring to metrics that are skewed to specific matchups that the player is place into as to not overexpose the limited skilled player. You're always going to see strategically used backup bigs with advanced metrics that don't match what traditional scouting sees for this reason. It's been going on since Chuck Hayes......don't let it fool you.
I'm still Taken aback by your complete dismissal of All of Australia.
"limited skilled player"?
Aron has a very particular set of skills, skills that he has acquired over a long career. Skills that are a nightmare for guys guarding Tatum and Kyrie. Skills that stops wings going to the hoop, or BIGS taking a position down low. If Aron doesn't get his minutes he will continue to take it out on the opponent. He will hunt them down and set vicious screens which will kill their will to guard our most skilled players.
The obvious answer answer is the added optionaility that his newfound three point shooting has brought to lineups in which he’s featured. He shot 4 for 28 in his first 376 games in the league. He’s now shot 37.9% in his last 40 games (including last year’s playoffs) on 55 attempts.
38.5% of his FGA are threes now, compared to less than 2% coming into the year. He’s basically eliminated the 10-22 footers that he took a ton of last year in favor of threes and <10 footers, so he’s a much more efficient offensive player.
Except he started 67 games last season. That means he played the vast majority of his minutes against the opposing starting Center. And he played most of his minutes with the Celtic starters and across the board most players played best with Baynes on the floor. Not sure what your traditional scouting eye sees but mine sees an excellent defense-first role player.
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Yep, Al will be run down to nub if they continue playing him 30 mins a night at the 5.
It’s too bad the Celtics roster construction and contract status throws off their flow. Let’s trade Jaylen Brown for somebody much worse than him.
Real contribution: Theis needs to play more. His mobility stands out with the first unit (you know, all 7 of them) on offense and his defense is solid. Boy can cut to the basket.
Real contribution: Theis needs to play more. His mobility stands out with the first unit (you know, all 7 of them) on offense and his defense is solid. Boy can cut to the basket.
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JB 3-3 from 3P tonight, including 2-2 from left corner.
He's also shooting I think 19-27 on FTs, which is over .700.
Not really going out on a limb here but the Cs aren't going to lose this season if they hit 20+ 3Ps. (Yes, I know they lost to IND hitting 19 3Ps.)
FT were an adventure with him and I have been pleasantly surprised by his current streak
Here's a good article discussing four statistics that are propelling the win streak: https://sports.yahoo.com/four-corners-success-celtics-besides-162920415.html. Summary:
(1) Cs are #5 in assist/TO ratio (1.88 for the season) but have upped that to 2.48 during the streak, which is #1 in the NBA. Note that Marcus very Smart has 25/1 Assist to TO ratio since he entered the starting lineup. No that is not a typo.
(2) Cs rebounding percentage (before last night's game) = 50.2, which ranked 17th in the league. In the first 4 games of the win streak, they were at 52.9, which would be 9th. Last night, they were at 59.3%.
(3) Cs are limiting fast break points by opposition to a league best (but that could be due to the opposition).
(4) KI's DRtg during the first four games was 99.7, which the article says was " better than any Celtic player averaging 30 or more minutes per game." Obviously, KI's DRtg is helped by Marcus very Smart guarding best offensive guard. KI had a DRtg last night of 89 (everyone on Cs had a DRtg under 92 last night).
(1) Cs are #5 in assist/TO ratio (1.88 for the season) but have upped that to 2.48 during the streak, which is #1 in the NBA. Note that Marcus very Smart has 25/1 Assist to TO ratio since he entered the starting lineup. No that is not a typo.
(2) Cs rebounding percentage (before last night's game) = 50.2, which ranked 17th in the league. In the first 4 games of the win streak, they were at 52.9, which would be 9th. Last night, they were at 59.3%.
(3) Cs are limiting fast break points by opposition to a league best (but that could be due to the opposition).
(4) KI's DRtg during the first four games was 99.7, which the article says was " better than any Celtic player averaging 30 or more minutes per game." Obviously, KI's DRtg is helped by Marcus very Smart guarding best offensive guard. KI had a DRtg last night of 89 (everyone on Cs had a DRtg under 92 last night).
On #3, I'd guess that better offensive rebounding and, especially, better shooting percentage factor in.
I'm looking at the recent stretch the same way I look at summer league. I know we are playing terrible competition, but dominating that competition is still a positive sign. It's no guarantee of success when the competition increases, but it's certainly much better than looking bad.
We won't know how much of this is real for awhile, I agree. But I also think this recent stretch is very encouraging.
Yes agree with this. The timing of our schedule during these two months, between Dec strength of schedule and Jan home heavy slate, could not have come at a better time for this team.
#1 is interesting, because turnovers have historically been a weakness for Smart. Would be great if this is more trend and less hot streak.
For me the turnovers have been worse than the shooting. Would be huge if this trend sticks.
To me this may be the stat most affected by the strength of opposing defenses. It will be interesting to follow later in the season to see how normalcy affects these numbers later on.
Ok, Danny and Brad.....now you're mocking me.
Tonights game v. Pelicans:
* Kyrie OUT
* Baynes OUT
* Yabusele OUT
* Hayward DOUBTFUL
* Horford DOUBTFUL
Well......this is the young guys chance to shine. I'd guess starting 5 of Theis, Tatum, Morris, Rozier, and Smart if Davis is a go with a ton of small ball with Jaylen replacing Theis in some of those lineups. Mr. Robert Williams could get some minutes against Randle if Theis has trouble with his physicality too. Mix in a little Ojeleye and Wanamaker and call it a wrap!
Tonights game v. Pelicans:
* Kyrie OUT
* Baynes OUT
* Yabusele OUT
* Hayward DOUBTFUL
* Horford DOUBTFUL
Well......this is the young guys chance to shine. I'd guess starting 5 of Theis, Tatum, Morris, Rozier, and Smart if Davis is a go with a ton of small ball with Jaylen replacing Theis in some of those lineups. Mr. Robert Williams could get some minutes against Randle if Theis has trouble with his physicality too. Mix in a little Ojeleye and Wanamaker and call it a wrap!
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Mixing Wanamaker into anything other than garbage time minutes will definitely result in a wrap alright.
Oh yeah he'll have to be with our backend rotation guys now in the rotation playing real minutes.
These are the type of games, especially at home, where the opponent lays a complete egg. I love our spot here! The numbers are too sharp nowadays. The game opened with Celtics -7......a decade ago the Pelicans would be -3 or something but nope, not in the 2018 world of sharpies. Celtics are at -4.5
I think I’d start Brown instead of Rozier (with Smart, Tatum, Morris, and Theis), to prioritize defensive versatility over offense with the starters. Then Rozier would be the bench scorer.
Rest of the bench: Time Lord, Semi, Wanamaker, Dozier
Rest of the bench: Time Lord, Semi, Wanamaker, Dozier