Celtics Free Agent Targets and Rumblings

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Jun 24, 2016

Mo Speights would be fun in Boston. He is a poor man's stretch four since developing a three. His defense is horrible (LeBron got a pants tent every time he drew Mo on a switch during the finals).

Harrison Barnes should hang up if his agent tells him he can meet with the Cs. He is a good player who had a bad postseason. He is also ill equipped to play as a high priced acquisition in a city like Boston. I mean this has Pablo Sandoval like disaster potential for both sides.

Za Za is interesting, Batum isn't leaving Charlotte and just no to Howard.

Aside from KD, I actually like Bazemore. He isnt going to wow you as a starter but he is a decent bench three and D guy. I like him a lot for shooting starved, d-minded Cs.

Eddie Jurak · Jun 24, 2016

538 recently prejected that the C's would lose Amir and Sully, replacing them with Ezeli and Pachulia.

Sprowl · Jun 24, 2016

I think the Celtics will lose out on Durant, Horford and most of the other top-flight free agents. They might settle on Gasol as a big man who can shoot or pass out of the post, as an alternative to running everything through Isaiah's hands.

With the higher cap and the flood of dollars chasing a handful of good players, this might be a year to exercise the options on Johnson and Jerebko -- $9m and $5m are pretty cheap in the new world. Sullinger is probably gone, since the Celtics won't want to bet on him keeping his plobby body on the court.

BigSoxFan · Jun 24, 2016

I tend to agree. I see the Celtics team next year basically being the same with the addition of Brown. Zizic and Yabusele will probably stay in Europe and Jackson/Bentil will put up big numbers in Maine.

On the FA front, there's no reason for the Celtics to do much spending if they can't get any of the big fish. Keep the flexibility, hope for a solid developmental season from Brown, and another tank job by the Nets. The roster should still be competitive:

C: Johnson / ???
PF: Olynyk / Mickey
SF: Crowder / Brown / Young
SG: Bradley / Smart / Hunter
PG: Thomas / Rozier

Frontcourt still sucks so I wouldn't mind a short-term Gasol deal but I doubt he'd be interested.

Conigliaro's Potential · Jun 25, 2016

Seems like there ought to be one thread for the Durant chase and hype, and another thread to discuss the other 20-30+ names in the OP on the assumption that Durant doesn't sign in Boston...because the latter discussion clearly isn't going to happen here until Durant makes his decision.

Sprowl · Jun 25, 2016

The Durant posts have been split out, so this thread is for the other targets, including the mysterious player X whose simultaneous max deal will clinch Durant's decision to become a Celtic.

mwonow · Jun 25, 2016

Is the right answer - especially if Durant comes to town - maybe "none of the above?" Would they be better off standing pat, seeing how the first part of the season plays out, and then dealing from a position of strength (top pick, lots of cap space) to trade for the piece(s) they need?

RedOctober3829 · Jun 27, 2016

Boston is "interested" in Hassan Whiteside.

Cellar-Door · Jun 27, 2016

I hope we don't go after Whitehead, he's 27 so unlikely to significantly improve and he's not actually a good defender.

Green (Tongued) Monster · Jun 27, 2016

Cellar-Door said:
I hope we don't go after Whitehead, he's 27 so unlikely to significantly improve and he's not actually a good defender.

I vote no as well. He sacrifices team defense for his own stay sheet, doesn't play many minutes, and seems like an ass.

NoXInNixon · Jun 27, 2016

If we're hoping they avoid any max deals that aren't Durant, I wouldn't mind seeing them take a shot at Howard if the years are short and he understands that the offense isn't going to be going through him.

moondog80 · Jun 27, 2016

Cellar-Door said:
I hope we don't go after Whitehead, he's 27 so unlikely to significantly improve and he's not actually a good defender.

Can you elaborate? I know there's more to it than this, but his numbers are awesome. I'd be just fine with no improvement there. Even the FT shooting was a non-deadly OK 65% this year.

RedOctober3829 · Jun 27, 2016

moondog80 said:
Can you elaborate? I know there's more to it than this, but his numbers are awesome. I'd be just fine with no improvement there. Even the FT shooting was a non-deadly OK 65% this year.

With Bosh out, he averaged something like 17/13/3. SSS, but if that's the kind of potential he has I'd be intrigued especially if KD likes him.

Cellar-Door · Jun 27, 2016

moondog80 said:
Can you elaborate? I know there's more to it than this, but his numbers are awesome. I'd be just fine with no improvement there. Even the FT shooting was a non-deadly OK 65% this year.

His defense is somewhere in the range of mediocre, he chases blocks leaving his man wide open for passes or putbacks, he doesn't hedge on PnR, he doesn't close out shooters. He basically plays like a zone college big man, he wanders around the paint looking for blocks. For a nice breakdown go look at Haralabos Voulgaris's twitter feed from yesterday, he was posting gifs to show it.

The most clear indictment to me is that the defense wasn't any better with him on the floor than on the bench. That's crazy when one of the guys who replaced him was Amare Stoudamire's corpse. If he cost 9-10M a year... fine, but he's going to be a max. Just as a player I don't think he's worth anywhere near that, but add in that he's a headcase who is finally getting paid for the first time and I wouldn't even consider him.

bowiac · Jun 27, 2016

Cellar-Door said:
The most clear indictment to me is that the defense wasn't any better with him on the floor than on the bench. That's crazy when one of the guys who replaced him was Amare Stoudamire's corpse. If he cost 9-10M a year... fine, but he's going to be a max. Just as a player I don't think he's worth anywhere near that, but add in that he's a headcase who is finally getting paid for the first time and I wouldn't even consider him.

The bolded is key. You don't need fancy APM-stats here (though they agree too). If you're a top tier defensive center, your team should be better defensively with you on the court. That's especially true with Whiteside, who played a lot of minutes against second units.

The DeAndre Jordan comparisons are oddly on point, in that Whiteside may be a better offensive player than defensive.

jmm57 · Jun 27, 2016

Dwight had a player option for $23mil next season and the opportunity to hit FA a year later.

Even if he hated it in HOU, you gotta think hes expecting a max deal or something close to it this offseason? No way hes taking something like $12x2 and essentially playing the second year for free? Maybe he just misread the market, but I would imagine hes getting a pretty large deal.

edit: Had max deal amount wrong for '16-17 season, larger point still stands but definitely more room to get a less than max deal done than I had thought.

RedOctober3829 · Jun 27, 2016

I would just caution people not to get worked up on the money that FAs get this year. There will be many players that get way more money than they are actually worth.

dylanmarsh · Jun 27, 2016

I'll throw one name out there: PJ Tucker. He has one year left on a very team-friendly contract with Phoenix and would fit into the Stevens' brand: great defender and team first mindset. More importantly, though, he's a former Texas Longhorn teammate of Durant and remains a good friend of his.

I have no idea what the Suns would want as they have a pretty even mix of teenagers, early-to-mid 20-year-olds, and some 30-something. The talk throughout the draft was a PF so perhaps a three team deal?

moondog80 · Jun 27, 2016

Cellar-Door said:
His defense is somewhere in the range of mediocre, he chases blocks leaving his man wide open for passes or putbacks, he doesn't hedge on PnR, he doesn't close out shooters. He basically plays like a zone college big man, he wanders around the paint looking for blocks. For a nice breakdown go look at Haralabos Voulgaris's twitter feed from yesterday, he was posting gifs to show it.

The most clear indictment to me is that the defense wasn't any better with him on the floor than on the bench. That's crazy when one of the guys who replaced him was Amare Stoudamire's corpse. If he cost 9-10M a year... fine, but he's going to be a max. Just as a player I don't think he's worth anywhere near that, but add in that he's a headcase who is finally getting paid for the first time and I wouldn't even consider him.

Hence his poor showing in RPM? Makes sense, though I'm open the idea that Stevens can somehow "fix" him while still taking advantage of his obvious strengths.

cheech13 · Jun 27, 2016

RedOctober3829 said:
I would just caution people not to get worked up on the money that FAs get this year. There will be many players that get way more money than they are actually worth.

This. Brian Windhorst said that Matthew Dellavedova is going to have offers for $10M a year, while Zach Lowe said Marvin Williams may get $20M per. Maybe it's just irrational exuberance so close to free agency, but if these numbers are even in the ballpark of what happens fans hoping for a big splash in FA are going to lose their shit.

Grin&MartyBarret · Jun 27, 2016

RedOctober3829 said:
I would just caution people not to get worked up on the money that FAs get this year. There will be many players that get way more money than they are actually worth.

cheech13 said:
This. Brian Windhorst said that Matthew Dellavedova is going to have offers for $10M a year, while Zach Lowe said Marvin Williams may get $20M per. Maybe it's just irrational exuberance so close to free agency, but if these numbers are even in the ballpark of what happens fans hoping for a big splash in FA are going to lose their shit.

But isn't that just what those guys are worth now? The number sound high, but in terms of the share of the cap those types of guys are commanding, nothing's changing. Dellavadeova getting 10 million's basically the equivalent of getting 7 million last year. Rodney Stuckey, Jose Calderon, and Jarrett Jack are all compensated at about that level. In other words, that's about what back up point guards get paid in free agency.

Marvin Williams, meanwhile, just quietly had a great season, is the sort of switchable defender everybody craves nowadays, and made 40% of his threes. A stretch 4 that defends multiple positions is valuable in today's NBA. 20 million is certainly high (I expect it to end up closer to 15 mil), but I think people are just going to have to adjust their roe player salary barometer.

BigSoxFan · Jun 27, 2016

cheech13 said:
This. Brian Windhorst said that Matthew Dellavedova is going to have offers for $10M a year, while Zach Lowe said Marvin Williams may get $20M per. Maybe it's just irrational exuberance so close to free agency, but if these numbers are even in the ballpark of what happens fans hoping for a big splash in FA are going to lose their shit.

If Dellavedova gets 10M / Year, I'll eat a log of my own shit, Rocco Graziosa style. That would be beyond comprehension even with the rising cap.

Sprowl · Jun 27, 2016

Grin&MartyBarret said:
...people are just going to have to adjust their role player salary barometer.

In this environment, the club options on Johnson (9m) and Jerebko (5m) look like bargains.

bowiac · Jun 27, 2016

moondog80 said:
Hence his poor showing in RPM? Makes sense, though I'm open the idea that Stevens can somehow "fix" him while still taking advantage of his obvious strengths.

I believe Stevens can put players in a position to succeed, and maximize their talents. That's pretty similar to what Pop has done with the Spurs. But Whiteside doesn't seem like a guy who isn't being deployed correctly - he just seems like a guy with really poor basketball instincts, frequently going way out of position to chase a block. That seems much harder to "coach up" to me. Unless Spo told him "sell out on blocks all the time - forget covering your man!", I'm less sure he can pull that off.

JakeRae · Jun 27, 2016

bowiac said:
I believe Stevens can put players in a position to succeed, and maximize their talents. That's pretty similar to what Pop has done with the Spurs. But Whiteside doesn't seem like a guy who isn't being deployed correctly - he just seems like a guy with really poor basketball instincts, frequently going way out of position to chase a block. That seems much harder to "coach up" to me. Unless Spo told him "sell out on blocks all the time - forget covering your man!", I'm less sure he can pull that off.

Also, Spoelstra seems like a pretty good coach in his own right. It's not like he was playing for the Kings the last couple years....

moondog80 · Jun 27, 2016

If you have $20M to spe

Grin&MartyBarret said:
But isn't that just what those guys are worth now? The number sound high, but in terms of the share of the cap those types of guys are commanding, nothing's changing. Dellavadeova getting 10 million's basically the equivalent of getting 7 million last year. Rodney Stuckey, Jose Calderon, and Jarrett Jack are all compensated at about that level. In other words, that's about what back up point guards get paid in free agency.

Marvin Williams, meanwhile, just quietly had a great season, is the sort of switchable defender everybody craves nowadays, and made 40% of his threes. A stretch 4 that defends multiple positions is valuable in today's NBA. 20 million is certainly high (I expect it to end up closer to 15 mil), but I think people are just going to have to adjust their roe player salary barometer.

The other part of this is that there are only so many guys out there that are, by popular consensus "worth" the max, but only a handful of them are actually available each year, and there are always 30 teams in the NBA trying to spend their money to the fullest. Cap space is only helpful if you use it, right? If my best option this year is to give a solid-but-unspectacular player 20 mil, and I don't think I'll have a shot at a better guy in the next couple of years, I'm spending the money on him.

cheech13 · Jun 27, 2016

A prudent team would go high dollar, short years on mid-tier players like Williams, Dudley, Delly, etc. Dishing out $10 to $20 million for those players under the rising cap isn't a big deal today, but those same deals become untenable when the cap goes back down in 2018.

bowiac · Jun 27, 2016

Marvin Williams was born 5 years too early. If he had the season he just had at age 24, he'd be a shoe-in for $20M. I think the spectre of Gerald Wallace may keep him from getting really paid like that.

I think Dellavedova at 2/$20M could be in play however.

Grin&MartyBarret · Jun 27, 2016

cheech13 said:
A prudent team would go high dollar, short years on mid-tier players like Williams, Dudley, Delly, etc. Dishing out $10 to $20 million for those players under the rising cap isn't a big deal today, but those same deals become untenable when the cap goes back down in 2018.

That cap goes back 'down' in 2018 to 100 million (10 million above the cap those deals are bein signed under) and then rises the year following to a projected $103, followed by $107 after that. If it doesn't look untenable this year, it's not gonna look untenable.

BigSoxFan · Jun 27, 2016

bowiac said:
Marvin Williams was born 5 years too early. If he had the season he just had at age 24, he'd be a shoe-in for $20M. I think the spectre of Gerald Wallace may keep him from getting really paid like that.

I think Dellavedova at 2/$20M could be in play however.

If Marvin Williams were born 5 years later he'd be Harrison Barnes

bowiac · Jun 27, 2016

BigSoxFan said:
If Marvin Williams were born 5 years later he'd be Harrison Barnes

That's not a crazy comparison, although I have a lot more confidence in Williams as a defensively player than Barnes.

cheech13 · Jun 27, 2016

Grin&MartyBarret said:
That cap goes back 'down' in 2018 to 100 million (10 million above the cap those deals are bein signed under) and then rises the year following to a projected $103, followed by $107 after that. If it doesn't look untenable this year, it's not gonna look untenable.

Except that back-to-back cap increases of around $25 million will lead to a flood of money for a limited number of free agents. That's going to cause massive inflation for middle and lower tier guys. If you want to open max space in two years when things are more stable, you'll have to make sure the deals you are doing now don't clog your cap later on.

HomeRunBaker · Jun 27, 2016

cheech13 said:
This. Brian Windhorst said that Matthew Dellavedova is going to have offers for $10M a year, while Zach Lowe said Marvin Williams may get $20M per. Maybe it's just irrational exuberance so close to free agency, but if these numbers are even in the ballpark of what happens fans hoping for a big splash in FA are going to lose their shit.

I get it with Williams to a degree although I don't have him quite that high. There can't be a GM who offers Dellavedova $10m (or $7m pre-tv money) after losing his backup minutes to Mo Williams' corpse last month. He resembled a min salary guy in these playoffs. He'll obviously get more but I'm glad we aren't the team paying him.

My pick for the eye opening contract of the summer is Meyers Leonard. He's restricted so a team would have to go beyond what Portland would be comfortable matching and his skillset will be highly desirable. Leonard is a guy I can see in the $15-20m range.

bowiac · Jun 27, 2016

I don't want to live in a world where Meyers Leonard makes more than Kawhi Leonard.

No, but seriously, Meyers Leonard isn't getting $15-20M. He's a poor man's Kelly Olynyk.

Grin&MartyBarret · Jun 27, 2016

cheech13 said:
Except that back-to-back cap increases of around $25 million will lead to a flood of money for a limited number of free agents. That's going to cause massive inflation for middle and lower tier guys. If you want to open max space in two years when things are more stable, you'll have to make sure the deals you are doing now don't clog your cap later on.

But there aren't back-to-back cap increases of around $25 million. There's a 24 million dollar jump this year, and roughly half of that the next. The projections are as follows:

'16-'17 - $94
17'-'18 - $107
'18-'19 - $100
19'-'20 - $102
'20-'21 - $107

I mean, I guess your point still stands: If you pay low/middle tier guys too much, you can't give that money to anybody else. But that's always been the case. It's also, incidentally, exactly why all of the talk about this summer is overblown. There will be a few contracts handed out that sound crazy. There will be others that are crazy. But nobody forgot how the cap works because the numbers got bigger.

Cellar-Door · Jun 27, 2016

The thing is not to get worked up about the $$ amounts, look at the percentage of cap. The key to this offseason to me is not to get locked into a long-term deal with a mediocre player. 1 year deal... sure whatever, max for Al Horford... I can live with it. 3+ years for Evan Turner NOOOOOOO!, Max for Hassan Whiteside.... EW.

The Abandoned Diary · Jun 27, 2016

Can anyone share insight on why both the League and the Player's Association agreed to two large spikes in the salary cap as opposed to a gradual, smoothed out increase? I recall on a podcast the new NBAPM executive director Michele Roberts being adamant about keeping the sudden jumps.

Cellar-Door · Jun 27, 2016

The Abandoned Diary said:
Can anyone share insight on why both the League and the Player's Association agreed to two large spikes in the salary cap as opposed to a gradual, smoothed out increase? I recall on a podcast the new NBAPM executive director Michele Roberts being adamant about keeping the sudden jumps.

The Players wanted the money now, before a new CBA, though there were also arguments that the artificial deflation would effect a number of things. They hired some economist to analyze it who suggested the jump was better for them.
This explains some of it: http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12461874/players-union-rejects-salary-cap-smoothing-historic-cap-increase-nba-set

zenter · Jun 27, 2016

The Abandoned Diary said:
Can anyone share insight on why both the League and the Player's Association agreed to two large spikes in the salary cap as opposed to a gradual, smoothed out increase? I recall on a podcast the new NBAPM executive director Michele Roberts being adamant about keeping the sudden jumps.

The simplest answer is that a star-driven league gets star-driven solutions.

But the real answer is about the predictable irrationality of front-offices. Think about how teams go over the cap (ie, beyond their portion of BRI) to retain players. By artificially reducing the cap and making a lump-sum payment to the union, the league (or more precisely, the teams collectively) would pay players less over the smoothing period, since they're only paying the shortfall between salaries and 51% of BRI.

By letting the cap jump and the letting FOs do stupid over-cap spending, it's possible the teams spend too much now, and the cap is adjusted slightly down the NEXT year when the value of the dollar is slightly lower. Thus, players collectively get more money.

E5 Yaz · Jun 29, 2016

The Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics are the first known teams to secure face-to-face recruiting meetings with free-agent big man Dwight Howard, according to league sources.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16602489/dwight-howard-meet-atlanta-hawks-boston-celtics

Clears Cleaver · Jun 29, 2016

How to take a likeable, starless, high effort team and make it a less likeable, starless, less effort team.

Please, no. Even if DH skill set matches a need, I can't imagine why anyone wants this guy around

Ed Hillel · Jun 29, 2016

Given the contract Howard just opted out of and his implied demands, I'm disappointed they even want a meeting. If he's a fallback or complement on something like 2/30, sure, but he's not taking that unless his agent severely overestimated his market.

BigSoxFan · Jun 29, 2016

Ed Hillel said:
Given the contract Howard just opted out of and his implied demands, I'm disappointed they even want a meeting. If he's a fallback or compliment on something like 2/30, sure, but he's not taking that unless his agent severely overestimated his market.

Unless they're doing due diligence for a Durant acquisition, this doesn't excite me. I hope Danny doesn't panic and sign him once KD returns to OKC.

GreyisGone · Jun 29, 2016

We just pretending Howard doesn't fit one of the Celtics two gaping holes? I don't love the guy but if they miss out on Durant/Horford who grabs boards/defends the interior?

RedOctober3829 · Jun 29, 2016

Steve Kyler also says that Celtics are going after Hassan Whiteside.

BigSoxFan · Jun 29, 2016

GreyisGone said:
We just pretending Howard doesn't fit one of the Celtics two gaping holes? I don't love the guy but if they miss out on Durant/Horford who grabs boards/defends the interior?

Hopefully somebody who doesn't cost 30M / year.

DJnVa · Jun 29, 2016

E5 Yaz said:
The Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics are the first known teams to secure face-to-face recruiting meetings with free-agent big man Dwight Howard, according to league sources.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/16602489/dwight-howard-meet-atlanta-hawks-boston-celtics

Broussard was on the radio this morning and said the teams meeting with Howard haven't even given an idea of what they're willing to offer. Said if Boston signs him they'll be the clear East #2.

He also said Horford is definitely going to require the max, which we all knew anyway.

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