He's 30, and an old 30 at that. Horford just turned 30 and has played over 10,000 fewer minutes. That's before you even get into the fact that weird chemistry stuff seems to follow Dwight everywhere he goes.
In an environment where scrubs are looking at 10M / year, Howard is going to get paid. Whether that amount ends up being 25, 28, or 30 is immaterial. He's no longer worth tying up cap space and flexibility and I hope the Celtics aren't really serious here.
I disagree that the contract amount is immaterial to a discussion about cap space and flexibility. My point in asking was to point out that Howard's not getting $30 million a year. He's not getting $28 or $25, either. The model NylonCalculus published, which Bowiac linked to in another thread, suggests he'll be in in the range of about $15/year. The "mock offseason" with Kevin Pelton, Nate Duncan and a couple of others ended with him at $18. In other words, he's getting paid to be exactly what he is: a role player.
We will see. I'd be surprised if he goes for less than $20 / year like those models predict.
I could see a 3/65 type deal for him from some dumb team thinking he just needs a change of scenery. Maybe I'm too cynical.
He has the luck to be an athletic 23 year old 40% three point shooter who guards the other team's best perimeter player at a time when the league values the ability to do those two things more than it ever has.
I think Crabbe is the other side of the Harrison Barnes coin. Probably better than most people think, and meets in the middle as probably a somewhat similar caliber player overall.
This is along the lines of what I'm thinking. If the market is dry and Howard can be had on a deal structured similar to Amir's it's a no-brainer. 2/$50m with a team option improves our frontline, gives us a big tradeable expiring contract as opposed to the FA dreams, and allows us to avoid having to sign Sully, or any other big 4-5, to an expensive long-term deal.
That list is labeled tier 2, I assume Durant is T1.
Yeah there are a lot of ones that make no sense, Whiteside and Conley stick out in particular as obvious undervalues by the model.
I'm not really that sure how much Whiteside will get. There's a reason Spo was bringing him off the bench in the 4th quarter a lot. It's hard to tell what GMs think they can fix, and what they can't, but he might have a surprisingly soft market.
Whiteside doesn't deserve the max, but apparently his first meeting is with the Mavs and Cuban said it'll take them 30 seconds to offer the max. According to reports, at least.
Yes, I agree 100% that there will be multiple max offers for Whiteside to choose from.
I'm not an NBA contracts guy, but doesn't pushing the date back help the Celtics? What benefit do the players get from this?
If they don't push it back the Celtics are going to pick up the option. If the Celtics don't pick up the option both guys will get raises. Amir Johnson may not get a raise but he will get more guaranteed money.
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2016/07/bulpett_celtics_interest_in_al_horford_not_dependent_on_kevin_durant
This. Seeing the other contracts being handed out is truly disorienting. Horford at 4/$113 in the market is good value if they can convince him to leave $$$ on the table with the Hawks (not optimistic).
Well, two things, the Hawks are one of the teams meeting with Dwight, so they might be preparing to move on anyway, especially where the local hero will cost less. And there's always the chance that Boston can make the deal via sign & trade to clear the payroll space for Durant (say something along the lines of AJ/JJ and one of Hunter/Young).
