Bradley: Deal with It.
- Thread starter shaggydog2000
- Start date
Because batting second is magically different than batting ninth? We're seeing what he's got.ifmanis5 said:
And if he continues to hit, not just for average, but with power, well, it's going to be hard to put together a bad lineup.
Pedey is supposed to be back any day now and he'll likely slide in at #2. They will likely tweak something since that gives you three R's in a row, maybe swap Ortiz and X. X isn't your typical cleanup hitter but I'm not sure how much that matters.
I'd like to move JBJ up too but I have a feeling they will keep it as is for the rest of the year.
Playing along though how about this:
Betts
JBJ
Pedey
Ortiz
X
Pablo
Rusney
Shaw
Swihart/Hannigan
I'd like to move JBJ up too but I have a feeling they will keep it as is for the rest of the year.
Playing along though how about this:
Betts
JBJ
Pedey
Ortiz
X
Pablo
Rusney
Shaw
Swihart/Hannigan
It may or may not be different to the hitter, but it's a fact that you would get an extra 4-5 PA per week from the current best hitter in the game. I guess it doesn't matter this year but winning games is generally the goal and getting more chances for JBJ seems like a good way to win games right now.Rasputin said:
Toe Nash said:
Many hitters say it is. At this point JBJ needs to cement his new approach at the plate. Let him do that with a minimum of disruption.
I doubt he's trade bait, but at this point it's best for the team for all of it's players to have maximum tradable value, rather than for the team to win an extra game or two.
ifmanis5 said:
Why? So he can practice hitting behind the runner? Taking pitches to allow the steal? Practice the hit-and-run? Or because the Blue jays have Donaldson hitting second...
Blake-Bradley-Betts-Pedroia (Holt)-Bogaerts hitting 8-9-1-2-3 is a great lineup with speed and power leading to Ortiz and Ramirez. Plus, Bradley (if he keeps this up) protects Blake.
I like it the way it is. Fuck with the pitcher who has just navigated through the first 8 and now has to deal with JBJ. Don't mess with success.
Because the wraparound 8-9-1-2-3 of Swihart/Hanigan-Bradley-Betts-Whoever-Bogaerts has powered the team to a 16-11 record over the last month, during which time they've been as good as any offense in baseball.ifmanis5 said:
On Aug. 5 JBJ was putting up a 102/220/163 line for the season.
Today his line is 312/385/631.
That's insane.
Today his line is 312/385/631.
That's insane.
To me Cespedes is an outlier. I believe he is not a very good outfielder, with poor instincts and poor reads. So a lot of his assists come after he has already misplayed a ball and the runner/coach at that point took a chance that Cespedes arm made up for.geoduck no quahog said:
I mean...I can't believe on this board in 2015 we're having batting order discussions that boil down to "it's not broke, so keep running that sub-optimal lineup out there!"
-JBJ may be comfortable with the low-pressure 9th spot, but no MLB player hitting like he has been is going to be happy hitting last for very long.
-The #2 guy is only guaranteed to hit second once per game. So whatever things a usual #2 hitter "does" are overrated -- he could need to do those things when hitting 9th, or 7th, or whatever. Just like he's going to be leading off some innings and hitting 4th some innings.
This isn't novel stuff. Generally yes, you want to keep guys in the spot they are used to because the difference between hitting 3rd or 5th is minimal. But when one guy is pummeling the ball and has been for over a month, you don't want him 9th. It doesn't have to be 2nd, but he should move up in the order.
If you do believe that he's comfortable hitting 9th and they should leave things as-is, do you think they're going to put him there for the rest of his career? If you can't test things out in September of a lost season, when can you make those moves? He'll get used to it.
-JBJ may be comfortable with the low-pressure 9th spot, but no MLB player hitting like he has been is going to be happy hitting last for very long.
-The #2 guy is only guaranteed to hit second once per game. So whatever things a usual #2 hitter "does" are overrated -- he could need to do those things when hitting 9th, or 7th, or whatever. Just like he's going to be leading off some innings and hitting 4th some innings.
This isn't novel stuff. Generally yes, you want to keep guys in the spot they are used to because the difference between hitting 3rd or 5th is minimal. But when one guy is pummeling the ball and has been for over a month, you don't want him 9th. It doesn't have to be 2nd, but he should move up in the order.
If you do believe that he's comfortable hitting 9th and they should leave things as-is, do you think they're going to put him there for the rest of his career? If you can't test things out in September of a lost season, when can you make those moves? He'll get used to it.
Glad I read the whole thread to get to your post Roof, before repeating what you have said. I'm pretty sure most of the "highlights" I have seen of Cespedes gunning someone down started with him misplaying a ball so badly that the runner though he could get an extra base or two. Clearly they are wrong, but I imagine there have been times where misplaying balls hasn't turned into a highlight for him.
JBJ is just.... awesome.
JBJ is just.... awesome.
Yup. I had the good luck to be sitting next to some total strangers who are serious fans at today's game and we were all just gasping and at a loss for words with each successive bullet he hit today, till the last one drove his OPS for the season over 1.000. This is Joe Hardy, deal with the devil stuff.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
It feels even more magical if, like me, you were a somewhat irrational booster of his and felt that the team had not been fair to him giving him spot starts against the likes of Chris Sale earlier this year.
And I just wanted to mention that Rusney did an excellent job of taking some bullets off the wall on the fly. He caught a couple of them without their ever touching ground. He seems like he has a good feel for playing the wall.
SSS and all, but JBJ has played in 49* games this season. The Red Sox record in those games is 31-18, a 102 win pace. In games he didn't play the Red Sox are 34-54, a 63 win pace.
*may include games where he was only a defensive replacement.
*may include games where he was only a defensive replacement.
Buzzkill Pauley said:
Including today, they are the highest scoring offense in the AL after July 31 and five runs behind the Mets for #1 in all of MLB. Really, the only thing preventing that 16-11 record from being better is a few bullpen meltdowns. You don't change a thing about this lineup.
Toe Nash said:
OTOH, I can't believe on this board in 2015 we're having batting order discussions that hinge on the assumption that moving one hitter for the last three weeks is at all likely to make a significant difference (even assuming there is such a thing as a significant difference for the Sox at this point), when the sabermetric consensus is that completely optimizing a batting order is worth more or less one win over a whole year.
There's plenty of time for tweaking the batting order next year when we have a chance to win something. The correct strategy for September 2015 has been articulated for us by Bachman-Turner Overdrive.
It's not rational but I agree. Don't change anything re JBJ. Same breakfast, socks, under shirt and spot in batting order.
We have a lineup with 6 or more number 2 types: Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Swihart, Castillo, Bradley, Holt. It doesn't matter too much how you bat them but Sandoval should be dropped down I think and doing what you can to get guys on base in front of Betts makes a lot of sense to me.
We have a lineup with 6 or more number 2 types: Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Swihart, Castillo, Bradley, Holt. It doesn't matter too much how you bat them but Sandoval should be dropped down I think and doing what you can to get guys on base in front of Betts makes a lot of sense to me.
Toe Nash said:
Didn't Bill Mueller win a batting title hitting out of the 8th hole most of the season ?
ETA: (Yes, 2003) I recall him stating that was where he was most comfortable
I never thought I'd be tuning into Sox games every day at this point, since I essentially checked out of both the 2012 and 2014 seasons in early August. JBJ is a huge reason why I still care, what a joy it is to watch him play baseball.
By this logic, it is amazing that more teams don't bat their best batters in the 8 and 9 slot. Kidding...sort of.geoduck no quahog said:
Yes, it is working, but anyone advocating for keeping the status quo, simply because it is working, is not thinking too hard about it. Pablo Sandoval has taken about half the PA's at the number 2 spot in the past month. He has not been good and who knows how many games that cost them because of that.
I understand that the games are somewhat meaningless now, and this is an extended tryout for a myriad of things. I tend to think that after a month of absolutely scorching the ball, it is time to find out what this team looks like with a Bradley somewhere in the top 2/3 of the lineup.
They're 16-11. How many MORE games would they have won with Sandoval hitting 9th instead? We're talking about batting order meaning multiple wins in a month?swingin val said:
No.
Whats there to lose if we bat him second the rest of the way and his production comes back to earth (which is a matter of time before that happens)?
Give it a shot.
Give it a shot.
Arguing about where JBJ should hit for the next month is threading the needle. It's irrelevant. It's time to just play him every day and see how he adjusts to further adjustments by the pitchers. His place in the order is something made up to argue about.
I'm happy watching him get at at least 3 ab's per game, with no pressure, learning how to "see the ball / hit the ball" and driving it into muscle memory.
And before the year ends I want to see him do one of those homerun saves that has him jumping on top of the wall.
I really hope this outfield stays together - imagine Toolsney with another off season of seasoning in various leagues (where they actually teach American-style baseball).
I'm happy watching him get at at least 3 ab's per game, with no pressure, learning how to "see the ball / hit the ball" and driving it into muscle memory.
And before the year ends I want to see him do one of those homerun saves that has him jumping on top of the wall.
I really hope this outfield stays together - imagine Toolsney with another off season of seasoning in various leagues (where they actually teach American-style baseball).
Toe Nash said:
I can't believe it's 2015 on this board and we still think lineup order accounts for more than fractional runs' worth of value, in a season where winning isn't exactly the most important outcome ...
swingin val said:
Well, this is part of the logic that Joe Maddon uses hitting pitchers 8th, and when you have a dynamic leadoff bat instead a table setter, having him hit with runners on after his first inning at bat is a value. So having your soft spot 7/8 instead of 8/9 can have an advantage (offset by the game where your 8 hitter makes the last out and your better 9 hitter doesn't bat).
But much more important to this situation is the psychology of a human who has ridden a roller coaster and is not a robot or an equation. Moving him now is only based on how it will help him as an individual. The team win difference of such a move is just off zero and well under one from a math perspective to a team that five wins wouldn't significantly impact, so what matters is what will help Jackie the human being stay at his peak performance, build confidence, and roll this all into a great 2016.
More importantly, as much as I would love him to end up being a .300/.400/.600 superman with a plus glove, that is Griffey land, and I need to see a much larger sample size before I dare hope that is who he really is, so I think he is a hot 9-hole hitter and unlikely perform like a 2-hole hitter for a prolonged period of time. So enjoy the production out of that spot while we hope the inevitable regression is delayed and minor.
MLBN Quick Pitch has "Jackie Batters Jays" for quickie one-liner about today's game. Get it? JBJ. Clever.
Normal SSS caveats apply, but:
He is close to doubling his OPS from last year.
Like, he had an OPS last year (.531), and then he has an OPS this year (1.016), and the one this year is almost 2x the one from last year.
He is close to doubling his OPS from last year.
Like, he had an OPS last year (.531), and then he has an OPS this year (1.016), and the one this year is almost 2x the one from last year.
I`d like to see what JBJ could do under the pressure of hitting higher in the order. He`s done very bad before and has seemed to come back strong. If he fails higher in the order, I don`t think it will hurt him mentally. If it does that`s also good to know now instead of next year. Alot of athletes like pressure, some don`t.
As far as next years OF. As thrilling as JBJ would be in CF, Mookie could be pretty amazing playing LF in Fenway. He seems to have a high apptitude for learning. Yaz was amazing in LF. Love it when he set up to catch a flyball, then quickly ran away from the wall to play it off the wall. Remember seeing alot of confused baserunners in those situations. Mookie learning the wall and JBJ getting over there quickly to back him up in case of a ball taking a bad carom off the scoreboard would make for some exciting plays.
This is going to be a long tough winter waiting for things to start next spring. My enthusiasm will help me endure.
As far as next years OF. As thrilling as JBJ would be in CF, Mookie could be pretty amazing playing LF in Fenway. He seems to have a high apptitude for learning. Yaz was amazing in LF. Love it when he set up to catch a flyball, then quickly ran away from the wall to play it off the wall. Remember seeing alot of confused baserunners in those situations. Mookie learning the wall and JBJ getting over there quickly to back him up in case of a ball taking a bad carom off the scoreboard would make for some exciting plays.
This is going to be a long tough winter waiting for things to start next spring. My enthusiasm will help me endure.
koufax37 said:
It doesn't matter one whit where he bats the last 20+ games of this year. He may stay at 9th until he slumps for a week, and then he's moved. It probably has more to do with superstition.
What does matter is where the Red Sox see him in next year's batting order. What kind of hitter do they think they have after 30 games of off the charts? He's obviously neither the 1.350 OPS hitter of the last month, nor is he the .550 OPS hitter in his previous PAs, but the gap between the two extremes is so enormous that it's hard to predict. ST might tell them a lot or, as it often does, tell them nothing.
In all my years of watching the Sox, I can think of only one comparable break out streak from a struggling hitter. In 1962, after two part seasons with the Sox, 24 year old Lou Clinton (RF), was struggling, again, in mid June. He was just about at 500 PAs, and his OPS+ was below 60. Then, from the end of June to the end of July, he went on a tear, and post an OPA of around 1.400, again similar to what JBJ has done. After that streak, Clinton was just about league average for the rest of his career. Unlike JBJ, he was not an elite center fielder, so his career was not very long. But I do remember the huge letdown, when Clinton settled back to just "average."
I also can't wait until the mid-winter projections come out (STEAMER,Zips, Bill James, etc) to see what they predict and if there's much variance.(it will tell more about the projection process than the player, of course.)
How the hell is hitting higher in the order going to put pressure on him?keninten said:
There is no pressure to win.
The pressure to play for a job next year can't be more than a fraction of a gnat's asshole different hitting first or ninth.
An interesting thought occurs to me reading this thread:
What do you think Ben tried to get for JBJ in trade talks or what did other GMs offer/reject in trade talks that JBJ's name came up in?
-and-
What might be offered for JBJ this offseason now that he has "figured out" the toe tap or whatever else has been the impetus for this crazy 5 weeks of JBJ-Goodness?
Is there a Sabermetric stat to measure the difference in Trade Value from (time X) to (time Y)?
What do you think Ben tried to get for JBJ in trade talks or what did other GMs offer/reject in trade talks that JBJ's name came up in?
-and-
What might be offered for JBJ this offseason now that he has "figured out" the toe tap or whatever else has been the impetus for this crazy 5 weeks of JBJ-Goodness?
Is there a Sabermetric stat to measure the difference in Trade Value from (time X) to (time Y)?
Go back 1-2 pages and you can find the complete answer to your first question.TallManinOregon said:
I`ve always thought top of the order batters would have more pressure to produce. JBJ at the bottom of the order with fewer baserunners would bring less pressure. There is no pressure to win. What I`m talking about is a player rising to the occasion(Papi,Larry Bird), compared to another player who would choke under pressure. I`ve never coached above high school ball so maybe it`s just something you look for in kids. I`m not good at putting my thoughts on paper, so don`t kick my ass too hard.Rasputin said:
For anyone who's played baseball his whole life, there's likely to be a new pressure to be a "plays the game the right way" top of the order hitter. Even if that's a self-imposed pressure.Rasputin said:
As was mentioned before, traditional "top of the order" hitting includes stuff like watching hittable pitches go by, hitting the ball behind the runner, sacrificing the runners into scoring position for the power hitters, etc.
In other word, exactly the stuff JBJ shouldn't have to worry about churning around in his brain at the same time he's still locking in new batting mechanics. Hitting 9th provides him the opportunity to just "see ball, hit ball" instead. So I say, leave him be.
Buzzkill Pauley said:
Well stated. This is also why I'd rather keep Bogaerts close to the top of the lineup. His success has come with adopting a very contact oriented mindset. I'd hate to move him to cleanup and put pressure on him to swing a bigger bat. Just keep doing what you're doing kid.
Anyway, there isn't much reason to move him up now like you said. But guessing at the future... he's still walking a lot and he's still striking out a lot, like he has his whole career. What he's added is power. So it seems safe to say that "final form Jackie Bradley" is a three true outcomes style hitter who walks a lot, strikes out a lot, but stings the balls he does put in play for extra bases. If he settles into this profile.... he could easily be a big bat hitting out of the 5-hole, something which was never anticipated when he was in the minors. With every passing game it looks more like JBJ and Betts (.180 ISO which would be 7th out of 14 qualified LF) can pass as the big bats in the corner outfield we supposedly don't have.
Well said. Pressure wasn't the issue before; it was technique and approach. So he should hit in a spot in the lineup where his technique and approach can breathe. If they believe he can take the same approach in another position, great, but there's no hurry.Buzzkill Pauley said:
WenZink said:
Entirely different animal, but Michael Nelson Trout did his 135PA cup of coffee with an uninspiring .672 OPS, and the following May started his .950+ OPS reality.
Just joking of course as "bad Jackie" covered parts of three seasons and 550+ PAs four years later than Trout.
But going back to ST 2013 with the ultimate SSS of one AB against Cliff Lee when he hit an oppo homer, the kid has all the pieces to be a really decent offensive player and allow his glove to play easily and happily, and his hot streak combined with his age combined with his 1300+ minor league ABs of "good Jackie" leads me to think we have a gold glove winning nine hitter.
I don't think his age and track record have any indication that he will somehow hamper the Sox because he is so much better than any of the top five in the lineup, so I would love to see him sit productively in the nine hole for as much as half a season before considering a move, and at that point likely realize a move isn't actually wise or necessary.
However, he clearly seems to be a complex and potentially delicate psyche, and if he would be at some level adversely impacted by "being stuck in the nine hole" when he feels he deserves more I would be open to such a move.
But I think the stress reduction and comfort of doing his thing for a longer while in the bottom of the order might help. And I think the possibility that he somehow surpasses the performance of Betts/Pedey/Bogey/Ortiz/Hanley in a meaningful way leading to an actual lineup inefficiency is pretty unlikely for 2016.
With Kelly/Porcello/Miley looking competent, and everything else that has been going pretty well, we are corner infield production away from being a very fun team in 2016. And a third place finish this year would be fun too.
Bradley is going to fall back to earth. I think. If you move him up in the batting order and he starts to revert as part of his natural progression, he (and management and media and fans) may attribute his offensive decline to batting order change. Don't confound variables. Keep him at the bottom of the order and see how he adjusts to the league adjusting to him.
In 162 fewer ABs, JBJ now has the same amount of runs scored (35), two more RBI (36 to 34), 2 fewer doubles (13 to 15), 4 more triples (4 to 0), and 1 fewer home run (8 to 9) than Dustin Pedroia.
Of course, he also has one more strikeout and 11 fewer walks.
But that's some remarkable stuff right there.
He has more doubles than Hanley, and only four fewer walks!
Of course, he also has one more strikeout and 11 fewer walks.
But that's some remarkable stuff right there.
He has more doubles than Hanley, and only four fewer walks!
More in the fun with small (tho becoming less small all the time) sample sizes dept...in fewer than 40% of the PA he had last year, JBJ already has more XBH this year (25 to 23).
kieckeredinthehead said:
All those points fit with the general consensus, save the few that want to see him tested at a higher spot in the order. Whatever "tested" means.
But assuming there are no big trades over the winter and the Sox get the benefit of a healthy spring, where do the Sox see JBJ in their lineup? Assume, as well, that Hanley shows more aptitude for 1B than for LF and the Sox are willing to go forward with Hanley 2.0.
You'd have two power bats with Ortiz and Ramirez (in expectation that he finds his stroke), two players in Bogaerts and Swihart who will, I expect, gradually show more power in the next 3 years, but not dramatically in 2016, Betts, who has the second highest slugging average by a wide margin, but obviously is a top of the order choice, and Castillo, who, at 28, is expected to be at his power peak. Add to that mix, a returning Pedroia and Panda, and then there is JBJ.
I've tried constructing a lineup, but where to put JBJ is still a mystery. Is he going to be "just" a league average hitter,with a low OBP (.300) but high SLG(>.450) who runs hot and cold with a lot of K's? I'll take that from an elite defender. I'm guessing the Sox hope for more, but expect the.760 OPS guy with a low OBP for 2016, and that JBJ starts next season near the bottom of the order. Give him another 250 PA's in a more meaningful part of the season to assess his offensive talent.
Cumberland Blues said:
JBJ is tied with Pedroia for 5th on the team in OWar (1.8) behind Mookie (3.7); Xander (3.6); Ortiz (2.6); and Holt (2.4). Swihart, it should be noted, is tied for 7th at 1.4.
WenZink said:
Assuming no trades, I expect the lineup to be something along the lines of Betts, Pedroia, Bogaerts, Ortiz, Ramirez, Sandoval, Castillo, Swihart, and Bradley. There's not a lull in the lineup if everyone is healthy and performs to reasonable expectation.
oWAR at bbref is position adjusted, as well, which is why Ortiz is behind Mookie and Xander. Because of his time in LF, his oWAR is therefore a bit depressed. He's second on the team in batting runs, behind Ortiz.
If you go over to Fangraphs, you'll see that he is third on the team in offensive runs, behind Ortiz and Betts (largely because Mookie has really good baserunning numbers)
All of this is just fun stuff of course. He's riding a huge hot streak. The real question is, if he settles into being the player he was in Pawtucket (285/365/451 over his three years there) or perhaps the guy he was in Pawtucket but with his MLB K-rate (so drop him to 255/335/420-ish), then where would he go? A lot will ride on what the other guys all do, I suppose, but there is also the idea that that latter guy may have more value in trade than he does to the Red Sox.
If you go over to Fangraphs, you'll see that he is third on the team in offensive runs, behind Ortiz and Betts (largely because Mookie has really good baserunning numbers)
All of this is just fun stuff of course. He's riding a huge hot streak. The real question is, if he settles into being the player he was in Pawtucket (285/365/451 over his three years there) or perhaps the guy he was in Pawtucket but with his MLB K-rate (so drop him to 255/335/420-ish), then where would he go? A lot will ride on what the other guys all do, I suppose, but there is also the idea that that latter guy may have more value in trade than he does to the Red Sox.
Drek717 said:
I like how we've already projected JBJ to a #5 hitter after, like, 100 hot PAs. And I am pretty blasé about lineup construction.
I'm with "don't change anything" crowd (perhaps more aptly, IMO, "who cares"). We aren't playing for straight up wins in 2015. We'll worry about the makeup of the 2016 lineup in March.