Bill Simmons: Good Luck With Your Life.

[semsox]

Even SOE had the backing of Gannett, and while Gannett is clearly not ESPN/Disney it's still a major company with established infrastructure.

I think the average reader underestimates the value of that structural corporate support. ESPN employees sell the advertising for Grantland. ESPN lawyers handle the contracts. ESPN execs manage the research, the PR, the HR, etc. How many non-editorial full time employees does Grantland have? People whose salaries are on the Grantland books and who don't work on any other ESPN properties? I would bet you can count them on one hand. If Simmons launched a truly independent venture he would have to hire for all those functions or farm them out to a third party that would be unlikely to have nearly the expertise or resources of the equivalent people at ESPN. That's a very hard, very expensive thing to do and you'd be hard pressed to recruit top non-editorial talent to fill any of those roles. A salesperson at ESPN - or any major media company - would be out of their mind to leave their job to go sell a Simmons start-up, or a start-up fronted by any sports media personality.
 

 
I think one notable example of an independent spin-off that worked without any major backing is Ezra Klein's relatively recently launched vox. The reason they have been able to successfully pull that off is because they basically were able to take a majority of the staff from WaPo's Wonkblog. Since so many of the writers already had the credibility and name-recognition, it was a fairly simple hand off to the new site. Now Simmons likely doesn't have that luxury, but if he were able to take some of the names that are prominent with Grantland with him (Lowe, Greenwell, Barnwell, etc.), I think it would be quite a bit easier to hit the ground running than many people are guessing. 

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

I would not speculate about what is or what isn't in Simmons' contract, such as a noncompete.   If you haven't read the contract, it is pointless to speculate about it.  

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

I would not speculate about what is or what isn't in Simmons' contract, such as a noncompete.   If you haven't read the contract, it is pointless to speculate about it.  

 
Correct, of course. And though IANAL, I do recall that California courts will enforce noncompetes in some circumstances, such as for an owner of a business (i.e., if I sell my California-based startup to Yahoo, Yahoo can get an enforceable noncompete against me of reasonable duration). And anti-poaching clauses are separate issues from noncompete clauses.

 

[JimD]

I could see Bill wanting to recreate the 30 for 30 experience on a bigger scale in Hollywood before he builds the new Grantland.

 

[joe dokes]

I could see Bill wanting to recreate the 30 for 30 experience on a bigger scale in Hollywood before he builds the new Grantland.

 
He may want it. But I dont think he'll ever get the creative freedom in "Hollywood" that he gets at ESPN. Now, he gets a vacation when he acts out and calls his bosses names. But upon his return they'll go back to leaving him basically alone.  Except for a few top-drawer directors, no one ever gets "left alone" in Hollywood.  
I think he'd last about 5 minutes outside of ESPN's protective coating, espcially once he learns that *seeing* lots of moviesis not a career path.

 

[kenneycb]

What names did he call ESPN?

 

[joe dokes]

What names did he call ESPN?

 
ehh, that was just clumsy shorthand for whatever reason one might think they actually suspended him -- calling Goodell a liar or daring ESPN to spank him or whatever.  I think my point remains the same. He may be unique, but so is the ESPN platform. Others aren't as big. I suspect that he knows what a colossal endeavor it would be to start something from scratch.  I suspect that his fans dont. "Oh he'll just start BillSimmons.com. and re-do Grantland."  Not quite.

 

[SumnerH]

 
FWIW this isn't correct.  Carolla started the podcast a day after his radio show ended I believe.  He just couldn't advertise/generate revenue until his contract expired. 

That difference probably helped Carolla hugely; although he wasn't earning money, he was keeping his name out there and growing an audience during the down year. Simmons could probably do likewise, especially with the support of the Carolla network. Still a net loss in all likelihood, but if he decided he really hated espn it's a tenable career path.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

An honest question: how much do you think Simmons' amazing career trajectory is down a) talent, b) hard work, and c) luck? By "talent" I mean having a unique voice and perspective as a writer/podcaster/broadcaster, a vision for developing communications channels or seeing potential for new ones (e.g., podcasts, 30 for 30, Grantland), and an ability to cultivate relationships with powerful people and navigate some of the difficult politics anyone in his position will inevitably have to face. And by "luck" I mean stuff like being the right voice in the right place at the right time to take advantage of the internet revolution, not getting stung by some of his bad choices (such as his ill-fated stint in late-night TV), and by happening to cultivate the right relationships at ESPN and elsewhere to protect him from some of the flak that might otherwise have caused him real grief. What proportion of his success would you assign to each of those three categories?

 

[OCST]

An honest question: how much do you think Simmons' amazing career trajectory is down a) talent, b) hard work, and c) luck? By "talent" I mean having a unique voice and perspective as a writer/podcaster/broadcaster, a vision for developing communications channels or seeing potential for new ones (e.g., podcasts, 30 for 30, Grantland), and an ability to cultivate relationships with powerful people and navigate some of the difficult politics anyone in his position will inevitably have to face. And by "luck" I mean stuff like being the right voice in the right place at the right time to take advantage of the internet revolution, not getting stung by some of his bad choices (such as his ill-fated stint in late-night TV), and by happening to cultivate the right relationships at ESPN and elsewhere to protect him from some of the flak that might otherwise have caused him real grief. What proportion of his success would you assign to each of those three categories?

 
Not to take away from his work or talent but he had the advantage of being one of the first to get online and find an audience.  Too much clutter now - there are probably hundreds of online voices who are as good but they are lost in the volume now.

 

[bankshot1]

Lets give Simmons more than "he had the advantage of being one of the first to get online and find an audience". Most of us heard about him via internet sports chat-rooms in the late '90s, found him, liked his take, and he grew a business from nothing. It took a lot of work, skills, tenacity and balls for him to succeed.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

And a Dad to float him rent money.

Which whatever, this happens all the time but it's easy to blaze a new trail when you have a safety net.

 

[bowiac]

Lets give Simmons more than "he had the advantage of being one of the first to get online and find an audience". Most of us heard about him via internet sports chat-rooms in the late '90s, found him, liked his take, and he grew a business from nothing. It took a lot of work, skills, tenacity and balls for him to succeed.

I think everyone, including OilCanShotTupac, agrees he's extremely hard working and talented. That doesn't mean he didn't also have fortunate timing. Many super successful people do. To reach Simmons level success in almost anything, you need to be extremely good, and extremely lucky. The teams that wins the World Series tends to be very good to great team, but also probably caught a few breaks along the way.

 

[bankshot1]

I give the guy credit. Did he have parental support? I'm sure that helped. Did he have good fortune? Sure we all need luck and good timing. He wanted to be a sports writer, felt stifled in traditional journalism, and saw opportunity in a new medium with no proven way of generating revenues, and he killed it, and realized a dream. How many internet ventures that were bankrolled by multi-million $ IPOs in the late '90s flamed-out in 12 months? Billy and his blog did ok..

 

[Shawn O'Leary]

Oh great - another discussion that seeks to discount success as luck.

 

[OCST]

Oh great - another discussion that seeks to discount success as luck.

He is talented, worked hard, and deserves all of his success, but if he were starting out today it would be much harder for him to cut through the clutter.

There is such a thing as being the right guy in the right place at the right time.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

A few thoughts.

-I would expect Simmons to have at the very, very least a one year non-compete. Adam Carolla had a one year and sat it out before starting his podcast. They have the same agent, which doesn't meany anything, but still... Carolla came back after a year and is now close to his peak fame level. This is rare. Most radio talent that quits or gets canned having to sit out a non-compete never make it back.

-A few years ago, before Grantland, Simmons was up for contract negotiations, there were rumors of him leaving. But after all was said and done he stuck around and got more power and duties than ever. He started his baby Grantland. Which was probably considered intellectual property of ESPN.

-He was suspended twice before. The first time for one week, the second for two, and now this his third time for three weeks.

-His going off of his employer is ludacris and shows how untouchable he feels he now is.

-If he went away for a year and lost all his already built infrastructure he wouldn't get back to where he is now. Shit, he just won an Emmy. He has to have a huge piece of the pie for Grantland. They let him do what he wanted and gave him the keys. He is getting paid from every click of a link on his sites. Only an idiot would leave that by their own choice.

-remember when Whitlock left ESPN? More importantly, did you know he was back? He lost all his momentum.

-Simmons is going to beat his chest because he is "the little guy" in this fight with Big Bad ESPN, this is not about the NFL or Goodell, but that will only work because he is the good guy to his readers/viewers/listeners.

-many of us have followed this dude for 15 years, it's crazy to think that, we'll stick around and so will he.

 
Adam Carolla stopped his CBS radio show on a Friday and started the podcast the following Monday. CBS was paying him through the end of the year, but he was doing the podcast (I believe ad free) during that time.
 

 

[SumnerH]

 
Adam Carolla stopped his CBS radio show on a Friday and started the podcast the following Monday. CBS was paying him through the end of the year, but he was doing the podcast (I believe ad free) during that time.
 

Yeah he wasn't allowed to monetize it at all in the beginning. That may have actually helped him long term.

He's a great example of someone who got some lucky breaks after working years to manufacture them, btw. And he certainly kicked down the door when it presented itself.

 

[LondonSox]

Oh great - another discussion that seeks to discount success as luck.

Personally I think luck is always a factor, more or less a given.
Ie you require luck to make it to a certain level, or more accurately the absence of bad luck at least. Anyone can get destroyed by forces outside their control no matter how talented.
 
Very lucky people can be successful with less talent, and some insanely talented people can be unlucky.

 

[johnmd20]

Personally I think luck is always a factor, more or less a given.
Ie you require luck to make it to a certain level, or more accurately the absence of bad luck at least. Anyone can get destroyed by forces outside their control no matter how talented.
 
Very lucky people can be successful with less talent, and some insanely talented people can be unlucky.

 
Simmons was unique(at the time), insanely talented, and very lucky. I agree with bowiac, you need all three to make it to the top of the heap, just like the super bowl winner or the world series winner.

 

[JimD]

Luck played a part in launching the BSG site at just the right time when the Internet was taking off.  Even a year or two earlier, that option simply wasn't available for a young writer.  It was certainly some combination of talent and hard work that took him from there to being hired by ESPN, and then to being the star on Page 2 and leveraging that to bring '30 for 30' and Grantland into being.

 

[Leather]

Oh great - another discussion that seeks to discount success as luck.

 
I'm sure if Jimi Hendrix was born in 1990, he would have been just as successful, right?   Abe Lincoln would have been the best president in our nation's history, even if was born after the Civil War had ended?
 
Rising to the occasion is, of course, highly commendable and 100% on the person who succeeds in doing it.  However, in order for that to happen, there first has to be an occasion to rise to.

 

[Riconway3155]

Did anyone notice he posted on his Facebook page? It was really just a picture of him out on a golf course, but I thought he was banned from all social media.

 

[Shawn O'Leary]

 
I'm sure if Jimi Hendrix was born in 1990, he would have been just as successful, right?   Abe Lincoln would have been the best president in our nation's history, even if was born after the Civil War had ended?
 
Rising to the occasion is, of course, highly commendable and 100% on the person who succeeds in doing it.  However, in order for that to happen, there first has to be an occasion to rise to.

 
That different times/circumstances may lead to different outcomes is not in question. The question is whether a talented, driven and hard working person would be unsuccessful in different situations/times. Sure, old Abe might not make it to president today, but he sure could be a highly successful individual. The tendency to discount success by attributing it mostly - or in large part - to luck is an ancient and sad tendency. Hell, the whole construct of religion probably springs from this in the sense that people are told we're all living out some grand plan of an invisible magician.
 
We'll just end up talking past each other on this, I'm sure. One thing you can count on at SOSH is when someone's success is discussed people will line up to chalk it up to luck.

 

[johnmd20]

 
That different times/circumstances may lead to different outcomes is not in question. The question is whether a talented, driven and hard working person would be unsuccessful in different situations/times. Sure, old Abe might not make it to president today, but he sure could be a highly successful individual. The tendency to discount success by attributing it mostly - or in large part - to luck is an ancient and sad tendency. Hell, the whole construct of religion probably springs from this in the sense that people are told we're all living out some grand plan of an invisible magician.
 
We'll just end up talking past each other on this, I'm sure. One thing you can count on at SOSH is when someone's success is discussed people will line up to chalk it up to luck.

 
Nobody is saying that people who make it big aren't talented. That's been a clear theme. But to make it to the top of the heap, some luck is needed. That is all. Simmons is immensely talented. People who have been reading him for over a decade would not argue with that. But he was also in the right place, at the right time, and that led him to much higher highs than he would ordinarily have reached.

 

[Dehere]

The only part of his career that truly seems like blind luck to me is that he was incredibly fortunate to build his career at the precise moment that Boston sports was becoming absurdly rich in successful teams and compelling personalities. Would a guy with equivalent talent and drive have been able to have as much success as the Milwaukee Sports Guy?
 
But that's not a knock against SImmons. Agree with others who have noted that many very successful people benefit from an element of luck. To whatever extent luck has played a role Simmons has made the most of his good fortune. Plenty of people get lucky breaks and don't maximize the opportunity, or even recognize their opportunity at all. Simmons hasn't left anything on the table IMO and he deserves credit for it.

 

[JBill]

Did anyone notice he posted on his Facebook page? It was really just a picture of him out on a golf course, but I thought he was banned from all social media.

He's been posting pictures regularly on instagram, including the golf course one.

 

[DJnVa]

Luck played a part in launching the BSG site at just the right time when the Internet was taking off.  Even a year or two earlier, that option simply wasn't available for a young writer.  It was certainly some combination of talent and hard work that took him from there to being hired by ESPN, and then to being the star on Page 2 and leveraging that to bring '30 for 30' and Grantland into being.

 

Well sure, but that's like saying it was lucky Columbus decided to sail across the ocean in 1492 and not 300 years later because by then everyone was doing it.
 
The trailblazer should get credit for being first (and yes, I know Columbus wasn't first, whatever)

 

[JimD]

 
Well sure, but that's like saying it was lucky Columbus decided to sail across the ocean in 1492 and not 300 years later because by then everyone was doing it.
 
The trailblazer should get credit for being first (and yes, I know Columbus wasn't first, whatever)

 
No - to use your analogy, it's like saying that Columbus was fortunate to be an explorer in an age after the boat had been invented.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

He's been posting pictures regularly on instagram, including the golf course one.

 
testing boundaries, like my four year old . . . .

 

[Average Reds]

 
That different times/circumstances may lead to different outcomes is not in question. The question is whether a talented, driven and hard working person would be unsuccessful in different situations/times. Sure, old Abe might not make it to president today, but he sure could be a highly successful individual. The tendency to discount success by attributing it mostly - or in large part - to luck is an ancient and sad tendency. Hell, the whole construct of religion probably springs from this in the sense that people are told we're all living out some grand plan of an invisible magician.
 
We'll just end up talking past each other on this, I'm sure. One thing you can count on at SOSH is when someone's success is discussed people will line up to chalk it up to luck.

 
I am actually shocked at how polite and respectful people have been to your trolling.  Because you could not be more full of shit.
 
No one has chalked up the success of Bill Simmons to luck.  They have pointed out that luck played a not-insignificant part in helping him build the media empire he oversees now.  But people have also agreed that the other factors in his success have been his ability to recognize what was missing from sports journalism, his talent to fill that void with appealing content and his willingness to take the risk of putting himself out there.
 
But yeah, keep going on about how SoSH always tries to attribute someone's success to luck.

 

[joe dokes]

 
No - to use your analogy, it's like saying that Columbus was fortunate to be an explorer in an age after the boat had been invented.

 
Nah....Chuck Yeager could've gotten a Conestoga wagon to Mach 1.

 

[Shawn O'Leary]

 
I am actually shocked at how polite and respectful people have been to your trolling.  Because you could not be more full of shit.
 
No one has chalked up the success of Bill Simmons to luck.  They have pointed out that luck played a not-insignificant part in helping him build the media empire he oversees now.  But people have also agreed that the other factors in his success have been his ability to recognize what was missing from sports journalism, his talent to fill that void with appealing content and his willingness to take the risk of putting himself out there.
 
But yeah, keep going on about how SoSH always tries to attribute someone's success to luck.

 
Easy tough guy. I don't troll SoSH or any other site. This topic just happens to be one of my bugaboos. Like I said before - we'll probably all end up talking past each other. So dial down the hostility.

 

[Average Reds]

It may be your bugaboo but no one is doing it here.

We're not talking past each other. People aren't buying your false premise.

 

[Shawn O'Leary]

It may be your bugaboo but no one is doing it here.

We're not talking past each other. People aren't buying your false premise.

 
I don't want this to turn any more V&Nish than it already has (which is where you can find plenty of what I'm talking about) - so take it to a PM if you want. Otherwise, spare me your sanctimony sport.

 

[JimBoSox9]

How big of you

 

[Leather]

Our bad for not understanding his strained logic.

 

[Montana Fan]

Simmons is incredibly talented and when an opportunity presented itself he was prepared to take a risk. In some people's minds, that is luck.

 

[Average Reds]

 
I don't want this to turn any more V&Nish than it already has (which is where you can find plenty of what I'm talking about) - so take it to a PM if you want. Otherwise, spare me your sanctimony sport.

 
Unintentional irony alert.

 

[cromulence]

Simmons is incredibly talented and when an opportunity presented itself he was prepared to take a risk. In some people's minds, that is luck.

 
I mean....no. The luck is in the opportunity presenting itself in the first place. Again, this isn't a slight on Simmons - everyone who's very successful needed a bit of luck at some point. We're definitely getting into some weird "pull yourself up by your bootstraps" territory and I'm not sure why. OK, I know why, I just wish it wouldn't happen.

 

[Leather]

No, in some people's minds, he was fortunate that his career and talents happened to converge at a time when those talents could be most effectively brought to bear.
 
If Simmons had been a Royals fan, or if he had been born 10 years earlier, his lack of a fanbase large enough to put him on the national stage and/or inability to accept constructive criticism would have limited his career.  Would he still be funny?  Yes.  Would he still be worth reading?  Yes.   But it's entirely unlikely that his career path would have been remotely as impressive.
 
Simmons is "lucky" in the same way that I'm lucky that I was single when I met my wife for the first time, or that a person who loves his job is lucky that there happened to be an opening when he/she was looking.  
 
It's OK to attribute some success to chance.   It doesn't make you less of a man or less American or whatever the fuck.

 

[johnmd20]

Simmons is incredibly talented and when an opportunity presented itself he was prepared to take a risk. In some people's minds, that is luck.

 
Et tu, brute?

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

This article in Slate from the other day seems somewhat timely:
 
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/history/2014/09/the_self_made_man_history_of_a_myth_from_ben_franklin_to_andrew_carnegie.html
 
(Who remembers the Hilltop Steakhouse in Saugus?)

 

[Mugthis]

This isn't complicated and isn't really debatable. Most simply, success (or "an outcome" more generally) is due to individual attributes and outside factors (timing, networks, location, etc.). Outside factors are mostly uncontrollable and even individual attributes are influenced by genetics, family, and society, which are also uncontrollable. Since the total amount of uncontrollable factors is large and influential, they matter a lot for the chance of success, failure, and everything in between. As a thought experiment, imagine bowling in a lane where all the pins disappear and reappear at completely random intervals. The only thing you have control over is where you throw the ball. Even if you throw a perfect ball, the outcome is still determined by whether the pins will be there. Talent matters, as does luck--for most things in life, they both matter a lot.
 
Bill Simmons is lucky he wasn't born in Kenya, or in the year 1200, or blind, or a million other things. And yes, he's lucky that he was starting his writing career at a moment when decentralized internet writing was just beginning to take off and the Boston sports scene was taking off. But a lot of people had the same, similar, or even better opportunities than Bill, but they didn't take advantage of it. Good for Bill. 

 

[Montana Fan]

I'm not arguing that circumstances don't affect the starting point.  I believe that effort, competence and choices affect where a person ends.

 

[SumnerH]

This article in Slate from the other day seems somewhat timely:
 
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/history/2014/09/the_self_made_man_history_of_a_myth_from_ben_franklin_to_andrew_carnegie.html
 
(Who remembers the Hilltop Steakhouse in Saugus?)

 
It's been closed less than a year, not really a stretch to remember that one.  It was the biggest restaurant in the world at one point IIRC.

 

[joe dokes]

I'm not arguing that circumstances don't affect the starting point.  I believe that effort, competence and choices affect where a person ends.

 
Without getting too metaphysical, the starting point often affects the ending point.  

 

[NortheasternPJ]

A whole pile of simmons gossip here about him breaking from ESPN;
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/industry-scuttlebutt-bill-simmons-wants-183748653.html

 

[Reverend]

 
Without getting too metaphysical, the starting point often affects the ending point.  

 
I eagerly anticipate the Bill Simmons thread on SoSH finally settling the great structure v. agency debate once and for all.

 

[The Social Chair]

A whole pile of simmons gossip here about him breaking from ESPN;
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/industry-scuttlebutt-bill-simmons-wants-183748653.html

 
The over/under on him returning to ESPN if he leaves will be like 3 years.