This is the truth. But not The Truth.I can verify that this is correct.
This is the truth. But not The Truth.I can verify that this is correct.
Not to be that guy but winning year 1 is more then 0%. The Celtics literally did this in 2008. The cavs almost did it in 2015. The Raps are on the verge of doing it.I’m not aiming these remarks at you personally, because this is just 7000th post expressing some variant of “Boston is so awesome that Davis will fire his agent and stay”. Except that we already saw, post Davis fiasco last winter, that Boston isn’t so awesome when Klutch is doing everything in its power to suck the life out of the clubhouse so that the star is eager to exit. Boston would need to convince Davis to stay after an entire year of the misery the franchise went through from January through May.
Expecting anything less than 2-4 salacious stories of discord a week is wishcasting. No matter how stable management looks, the clubhouse won’t be. Klutch will make sure of that.
HRB called this last summer, and I was a skeptic until we saw the lengths Klutch was willing to go to to poison things in Boston and make it even less attractive publicly and to warn Boston what they were facing if they went ahead anyway. From the perspective of Boston or any team other than the Lakers Klutch has a massive conflict of interest. Only Davis doesn’t see it that way, which is likely why he hired them to be his agents, because they were the team to get him to the Lakers.
I agree with this, if you’re Griffin you make a bet on the post-LeBron years and see what LA can cobble together for current assets. If the Lakers can talk Chicago or Phoenix into some variant of Ball for their firsts, a deal is probably doable. Griffin can probably even get picks for Ingram once he proves to be healthy. But coming out of this draft with a potentially elite 3&D guy like Hunter and then the ability to roll the dice on Reddish or Porter, or draft a defensive backstop like Hayes, while betting on the Lakers sucking post-LeBron is probably not a bad return.
You could, you almost certainly don’t. Then he leaves and you’ve emptied the larder and now you’re the Miami Heat, a scrappy team of roleplayers trying to take the eighth playoff spot and getting bounced in the first round when you’re lucky enough to make it. At which point you have to ask How long is the coach sticking around? because he’ll almost certainly have a pile of offers waiting for him when he hits free agency.
AD isn’t a generational talent. He isn’t even the best player in the NBA. So either the word “generational talent” is a lot more inclusive than I thought, or he’s just a top 4-8 player in the NBA (maybe we can promote him a spot due to Durant’s injury). Don’t get me wrong, he’s a great player. And you do need guys like that to win a title. But the odds of doing it year one are approximately 0%, and you’ll never get another chance. Time for Plan B.
Only in the same sense that they could do it right now. Kyrie exercised his ETO, which makes him a free agent as of July 1st. So trades can’t be completed until the new NBA season (though they can be agreed on now as is the case with the recent Crabbe trade).
It's not really less because no one envisioned that LAL would have the #4 pick in February.The offer from the Lakers is less than what the reported offer was at the deadline. I believe Zubac and Kuzma were in that deal in February. They don't want to deal Kuzma and Zubac is on another team. The change would be whatever they could get with the #4 pick that interests NO.
I meant in terms of players on the Lakers being offered to the Pelicans. The #4 pick changes the value of the deal which you are right about.It's not really less because no one envisioned that LAL would have the #4 pick in February.
According to the Lebron mouthpiece? This can’t be good.https://twitter.com/TheHoopCentral/status/1138945958098612225?s=20
Hoop Central
@TheHoopCentral
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10m
According to @WindhorstESPN , the next 24-48 hours could be “huge” regarding Anthony Davis trade talks.
The Celtics had two top ten players in 2008, along with an historically good shooter. All of them committed for more than one year. The 2020 Celtics would have Davis and a prayer. If Leonard remains in Toronto Boston would have the third best player in the conference, but the odds of getting past Toronto and Milwaukee with all the dissension the agents can create is basically nil.Not to be that guy but winning year 1 is more then 0%. The Celtics literally did this in 2008. The cavs almost did it in 2015. The Raps are on the verge of doing it.
The only way to win a title is to have an all time talent. The Celtics don’t have that. AD is insanely, insanely good. So you do whatever it takes to get that guy & then figure out the rest after. If KG had left in 2009 after winning the title he would still be a God in Boston & it would still have been 100% worth it no matter what.
No idea about this guy:
https://twitter.com/FletcherWDSU/status/1138919015647207429?s=20
Here. We. Go! Can the Lakers some how turn pick #4 into Bradley Beal? CJ McCollum? Rudy Gobert? DeMar DeRozan?
My bet, AD headed to #Celtics
as soon as tonight.
That is a very good point.For everyone nervous about trading Tatum for AD as a possible rental. Can I offer a different question? If the Lakers are SO confident that AD is coming to the Lakers in a year as a free agent, why are they offering up all of their non-LeBron assets now for him instead of just waiting a year? And think carefully about your answer to that when thinking about how AD evaluates his next move.
because they desperately do not want to waste another year of LebronFor everyone nervous about trading Tatum for AD as a possible rental. Can I offer a different question? If the Lakers are SO confident that AD is coming to the Lakers in a year as a free agent, why are they offering up all of their non-LeBron assets now for him instead of just waiting a year? And think carefully about your answer to that when thinking about how AD evaluates his next move.
Yeah, I'm on board with this thought.because they desperately do not want to waste another year of Lebron
2 responses:because they desperately do not want to waste another year of Lebron
I agree with the rest. But 2016/2017 Kawhi played 9 terrible games and the full extent of his quad injury was unknown. I think we all agree that 2018/2019 AD had far fewer question marks and was a better played than that 16/17 Kawhi1. Kawhi > AD
Fair enough. Both great players. I'm partial to Kawhi, feel the modern game is more perimeter oriented on offense/defense. But you could make an argument either way.I agree with the rest. But 2016/2017 Kawhi played 9 terrible games and the full extent of his quad injury was unknown. I think we all agree that 2018/2019 AD had far fewer question marks and was a better played than that 16/17 Kawhi
AD can't be traded to the Celtics before July.No idea about this guy:
https://twitter.com/FletcherWDSU/status/1138919015647207429?s=20
Here. We. Go! Can the Lakers some how turn pick #4 into Bradley Beal? CJ McCollum? Rudy Gobert? DeMar DeRozan?
My bet, AD headed to #Celtics
as soon as tonight.
I think we all know that. However that doesn't mean a deal wouldn't be reached before that. We've all seen those types of things during NBA drafts.AD can't be traded to the Celtics before July.
I was just referring to the part where he said his bet was that AD was heading to the Celtics as soon as tonight.I think we all know that. However that doesn't mean a deal wouldn't be reached before that. We've all seen those types of things during NBA drafts.
Yeah, I mean, I don't think he meant literally, just that a deal would be done.I was just referring to the part where he said his bet was that AD was heading to the Celtics as soon as tonight.
Bingo right here. The Lakers game plan has always been to "waste" one year of LeBron while identifying which of the young players if any of the young players can be counted on as complementary pieces down the road on a LeBron/AD-led team. It's pretty clear to me that Ball and Ingram are the two who don't fit well in these roles while Kuzma surely can be a big piece with his scoring particularly in leading the second unit.because they desperately do not want to waste another year of Lebron
We should assume that everything being leaked is from the Pelicans side given they are trying to drive demand. Supply is fixed in this case.Based on everything I ve rad here, it seems to me that the Celtics are in the discussions in order to extend them and drive the price for Davis. It doesn't make sense to me to go for it at the price discussed. The expected value isn't not there.
All the same, in recent times, stars have been traded for prices that were far smaller an the rumors indicated.
Does this sound familiar:The proposed trade that would have sent Kevin Garnett to Boston, agreed to in principle by ex-teammates Kevin McHale and Danny Ainge, was taken off the table Thursday after Garnett got word to the Celtics that he doesn't want to play for them.
Without at least a strong indication that Garnett would be willing to sign an extension with the Celtics, Ainge would be parting with virtually every enticing trade chip Boston has for what amounts to a one-year rental
Why would Celtics bother just to drive up the price? All you'd accomplish is annoying Griffin. Fans think of "Celtics vs Lakers" but Ainge is just thinking about how to do the best for the team....I don't think he's focused on the Lakers, or on any other team in particular, he's just trying to add an alpha. And there's no more likely way to get one right now than AD, which is why he's in the discussion imo.Based on everything I ve rad here, it seems to me that the Celtics are in the discussions in order to extend them and drive the price for Davis. It doesn't make sense to me to go for it at the price discussed. The expected value isn't not there.
All the same, in recent times, stars have been traded for prices that were far smaller an the rumors indicated.
If the Celtics drive up the price, I don't think Griffin would be annoyed. If he does get annoyed, I would argue that's not Ainge's problem to address.Why would Celtics bother just to drive up the price? All you'd accomplish is annoying Griffin. Fans think of "Celtics vs Lakers" but Ainge is just thinking about how to do the best for the team....I don't think he's focused on the Lakers, or on any other team in particular, he's just trying to add an alpha. And there's no more likely way to get one right now than AD, which is why he's in the discussion imo.
I'm not sure the Lakers paying more would annoy Griffin.Why would Celtics bother just to drive up the price? All you'd accomplish is annoying Griffin.
That's only true if Griffin never actually needs Ainge to be willing to make a deal. What would annoy Griffin is if Celtics are mucking around and not serious about a deal. So my assumption is they only bother to engage if they are fairly serious about the deal itself.If the Celtics drive up the price, I don't think Griffin would be annoyed. If he does get annoyed, I would argue that's not Ainge's problem to address.
@nighthob
The thrust of my post, and I probably said it badly, is not necessarily that "Boston is awesome so stay". But rather a year down the road it may make business sense for Klutch to abandon the hijack. I suggested this because at that point Lebron may (or may not) be showing signs of a continued break down due to age and Minutes played.
Yeah, I mean as we tragically saw in the Finals, things can change in a day. I think this time next year we’ll have a far different opinion on the prospects of Player LeBron, and it will likely be much better or much worse.Yes. This is the potential problem for Klutch/Lebron---if Boston acquires AD, Lebron may decide "Okay, I'm gonna be 35 this season, I can't waste another season, the Lakers need to sign players/make moves" and in doing so that will impact the cap space needed to sign AD next summer. It may still work out, but it's a wrench--which is why the Lakers want to avoid that nonsense and trade for him now. Things can change in a year.
Right - it's amazing to me how quickly people seem to have forgotten the Paul George saga, which was almost literally the exact same scenario, down to PG's camp saying the exact same things about being a rental:And some other team may be the apple of AD's eye next summer--it doesn't mean it will be Boston. But the Lakers need to get this done via trade if they can. That will wrap up AD in that ugly purple and gold for years. If they don't there's a chance it never happens.
Except then, of course, he didn't go to the Lakers because he realized he liked playing with Westbrook in OKC. AD's situation is a bit different due to the Klutch wrinkle but the point is we've been here before and what a player says a year before free agency should be taken with a massive grain of salt no matter how emphatic those statements are.Teams are trying to decide what is the appropriate cost for a player who they are being told pretty adamantly by Paul George’s camp will be a rental. No matter who you are, no matter who has checked in or who potentially will check in about him, they are going to be told that Paul George is going to play this season out and then he is going to go to the Lakers. That’s his plan.
Why would Griffin be annoyed? He ought to love that we re driving the price he can get from the Lakers.Why would Celtics bother just to drive up the price? All you'd accomplish is annoying Griffin. Fans think of "Celtics vs Lakers" but Ainge is just thinking about how to do the best for the team....I don't think he's focused on the Lakers, or on any other team in particular, he's just trying to add an alpha. And there's no more likely way to get one right now than AD, which is why he's in the discussion imo.
I answered first question above.Why would Griffin be annoyed? He ought to love that we re driving the price he can get from the Lakers.
As to why would Ainge do it, don't teams do that all the time? Don't teams do disingenuous offers on restricted free agents so that home teams are forced to offer the max? The more assets the Lakers give, the less competitive they will be.
point taken but I think the Paul George piece of data can be discounted because based on the statement above alone, Paul George is clearly clinically insane.Except then, of course, he didn't go to the Lakers because he realized he liked playing with Westbrook in OKC.
Well, would you rather be playing with Westbrook or living in the circus that the Lakers have been the past 18 months? I'd actually select door number 1, even acknowledging having George and winning more would have reduced some aspects of the circuspoint taken but I think the Paul George piece of data can be discounted because based on the statement above alone, Paul George is clearly clinically insane.
It's not just a wrinkle. Paul George's agent is Aaron Mintz of CAA, who has somewhat notoriously clashed with both Rob Pelinka and the Lakers over the years. Paul George, D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle all share Mintz as an agent. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots there.Right - it's amazing to me how quickly people seem to have forgotten the Paul George saga, which was almost literally the exact same scenario, down to PG's camp saying the exact same things about being a rental:
Except then, of course, he didn't go to the Lakers because he realized he liked playing with Westbrook in OKC. AD's situation is a bit different due to the Klutch wrinkle but the point is we've been here before and what a player says a year before free agency should be taken with a massive grain of salt no matter how emphatic those statements are.
If my goal is to win a championship, I'm picking LBJ last year.Well, would you rather be playing with Westbrook or living in the circus that the Lakers have been the past 18 months? I'd actually select door number 1, even acknowledging having George and winning more would have reduced some aspects of the circus
While I do believe most trade inquiries are sincere, and I don't see Ainge getting involved solely to drive the price up for another team, I do believe there was an article posted somewhere on these boards about all the misdirection that goes on behind the scenes. GM's aren't some chummy club where it's strictly "scratch my back and I'll scratch yours". They are competitive folks by nature that are always trying to gain an edge. I agree Ainge isn't going to simply make phony offers for Davis just to jack the price up. However, Ainge isn't going to simply sit back and let the Lakers get Davis for Ball and a 2nd round pick (exaggeration alert) either without at least making an offer of his own.I answered first question above.
On the second, I just don't think so. I think occasionaly there are dynamics that incent bidding guys up---there's two teams each looking for a starting PG and a backup C and they target the same guys at each position, thus there's a benefit of pushing price ofr one in order to reduce competitiveness on the other. But that's a pretty specific situation. In this case, if the Celtics and Lakers are both competing for Bradley Beal as well, perhaps they might try to bid up AD to remove them from the other discussion, but that's a hard scenario to really put together.
I think it is almost never they just bid on guys to raies the price for others. That, I believe, is more a fantasy baseball auction notion rather than the real thing. I think many teams check in on a player who is avaiable in trade---many more than are publicly reported---but their interest is sincere, not solely or even primarily done for purposes of playing games iwth the market value.
The reason for this is that it's a pretty big market---for any player who is any good there's almost always 5+ teams who can bid for them so the incremental "price" pressure of any team is limited. And, the relationships are long---if you screw around with insincere offers the 'selling' GM might like it but the agent likely won't, and the GM of the other acquiring team won't, and you're dealing with all these people on an ongoing basis. It's just not worth it time/value wise.
I get that. My point more generally was that a lot can change over the course of a season/offseason in any player's mind - which is one reason (LBJ's shelf-life being one of the others) why the Lakers would be willing to part with significant assets to acquire AD now even if Rich Paul told them point blank, "I guarantee you that Davis will sign with you guys next year."It's not just a wrinkle. Paul George's agent is Aaron Mintz of CAA, who has somewhat notoriously clashed with both Rob Pelinka and the Lakers over the years. Paul George, D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle all share Mintz as an agent. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots there.
When did they let you out of lock-up?On top of having to watch the B’s lose Game 7 in hostile territory, I had to talk to a bunch of drunk Lakers fans about the AD situation. They all acted like the Lakers fans I’ve encountered online - AD to the Lakers is their birthright and the Pelicans have some nerve to expect anything more than what they’re offering in their future HOF young’ins. Now I know not to poke the bear but when I dared suggest that the Celtics might be in the mix, they asked “What do they even have to offer? Nothing!”
Sorry. I know this is just a drunken anecdote but I needed to vent after holding back so much.