Anthony Davis: No Loyalty

CreedBratton

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I’m not aiming these remarks at you personally, because this is just 7000th post expressing some variant of “Boston is so awesome that Davis will fire his agent and stay”. Except that we already saw, post Davis fiasco last winter, that Boston isn’t so awesome when Klutch is doing everything in its power to suck the life out of the clubhouse so that the star is eager to exit. Boston would need to convince Davis to stay after an entire year of the misery the franchise went through from January through May.

Expecting anything less than 2-4 salacious stories of discord a week is wishcasting. No matter how stable management looks, the clubhouse won’t be. Klutch will make sure of that.

HRB called this last summer, and I was a skeptic until we saw the lengths Klutch was willing to go to to poison things in Boston and make it even less attractive publicly and to warn Boston what they were facing if they went ahead anyway. From the perspective of Boston or any team other than the Lakers Klutch has a massive conflict of interest. Only Davis doesn’t see it that way, which is likely why he hired them to be his agents, because they were the team to get him to the Lakers.



I agree with this, if you’re Griffin you make a bet on the post-LeBron years and see what LA can cobble together for current assets. If the Lakers can talk Chicago or Phoenix into some variant of Ball for their firsts, a deal is probably doable. Griffin can probably even get picks for Ingram once he proves to be healthy. But coming out of this draft with a potentially elite 3&D guy like Hunter and then the ability to roll the dice on Reddish or Porter, or draft a defensive backstop like Hayes, while betting on the Lakers sucking post-LeBron is probably not a bad return.



You could, you almost certainly don’t. Then he leaves and you’ve emptied the larder and now you’re the Miami Heat, a scrappy team of roleplayers trying to take the eighth playoff spot and getting bounced in the first round when you’re lucky enough to make it. At which point you have to ask How long is the coach sticking around? because he’ll almost certainly have a pile of offers waiting for him when he hits free agency.

AD isn’t a generational talent. He isn’t even the best player in the NBA. So either the word “generational talent” is a lot more inclusive than I thought, or he’s just a top 4-8 player in the NBA (maybe we can promote him a spot due to Durant’s injury). Don’t get me wrong, he’s a great player. And you do need guys like that to win a title. But the odds of doing it year one are approximately 0%, and you’ll never get another chance. Time for Plan B.



Only in the same sense that they could do it right now. Kyrie exercised his ETO, which makes him a free agent as of July 1st. So trades can’t be completed until the new NBA season (though they can be agreed on now as is the case with the recent Crabbe trade).
Not to be that guy but winning year 1 is more then 0%. The Celtics literally did this in 2008. The cavs almost did it in 2015. The Raps are on the verge of doing it.

The only way to win a title is to have an all time talent. The Celtics don’t have that. AD is insanely, insanely good. So you do whatever it takes to get that guy & then figure out the rest after. If KG had left in 2009 after winning the title he would still be a God in Boston & it would still have been 100% worth it no matter what.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The offer from the Lakers is less than what the reported offer was at the deadline. I believe Zubac and Kuzma were in that deal in February. They don't want to deal Kuzma and Zubac is on another team. The change would be whatever they could get with the #4 pick that interests NO.
It's not really less because no one envisioned that LAL would have the #4 pick in February.
 

nighthob

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Not to be that guy but winning year 1 is more then 0%. The Celtics literally did this in 2008. The cavs almost did it in 2015. The Raps are on the verge of doing it.

The only way to win a title is to have an all time talent. The Celtics don’t have that. AD is insanely, insanely good. So you do whatever it takes to get that guy & then figure out the rest after. If KG had left in 2009 after winning the title he would still be a God in Boston & it would still have been 100% worth it no matter what.
The Celtics had two top ten players in 2008, along with an historically good shooter. All of them committed for more than one year. The 2020 Celtics would have Davis and a prayer. If Leonard remains in Toronto Boston would have the third best player in the conference, but the odds of getting past Toronto and Milwaukee with all the dissension the agents can create is basically nil.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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For everyone nervous about trading Tatum for AD as a possible rental. Can I offer a different question? If the Lakers are SO confident that AD is coming to the Lakers in a year as a free agent, why are they offering up all of their non-LeBron assets now for him instead of just waiting a year? And think carefully about your answer to that when thinking about how AD evaluates his next move.
 

bradcote

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For everyone nervous about trading Tatum for AD as a possible rental. Can I offer a different question? If the Lakers are SO confident that AD is coming to the Lakers in a year as a free agent, why are they offering up all of their non-LeBron assets now for him instead of just waiting a year? And think carefully about your answer to that when thinking about how AD evaluates his next move.
That is a very good point.
 

Gash Prex

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For everyone nervous about trading Tatum for AD as a possible rental. Can I offer a different question? If the Lakers are SO confident that AD is coming to the Lakers in a year as a free agent, why are they offering up all of their non-LeBron assets now for him instead of just waiting a year? And think carefully about your answer to that when thinking about how AD evaluates his next move.
because they desperately do not want to waste another year of Lebron
 

E5 Yaz

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because they desperately do not want to waste another year of Lebron
Yeah, I'm on board with this thought.

I'm fine with AD for one season ... IF he commits to playing for a season. Celtics are getting to the stage where they need to get to a Finals with this group, and the Kawhi experience in Toronto isn't such a bad model to follow
 

Red Averages

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because they desperately do not want to waste another year of Lebron
2 responses:

#1 - that's an awful lot to spend for one season when they may not be championship favorites. (sound familiar?)
#2 - is that by chance because they know LeBron isn't going to be an MVP level candidate for years 2-6 of this supposed dream team?

Either way, I feel like it's just risk aversion bias playing out for people that don't want to try to cash in for a championship. Hell the Raptors may end up with Kawhi for the next 5+ years because they took a risk. Who thought that was going to happen when they made the trade? Let alone a Boston team that may be Championship favorites for the next 5+ years if Kyrie/AD come.
 

benhogan

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The Kawhi and AD proposed deal don't really compare.

1. Kawhi > AD
2. Danny Green was a huge addition
3. Tatum/Smart/Memphis pick > DeRozan/Poeltl/#29 pick
4. Kawhi's agent never definitively said its a 1yr rental for Toronto
5. AD's agent is partners with Bron
 

benhogan

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I agree with the rest. But 2016/2017 Kawhi played 9 terrible games and the full extent of his quad injury was unknown. I think we all agree that 2018/2019 AD had far fewer question marks and was a better played than that 16/17 Kawhi
Fair enough. Both great players. I'm partial to Kawhi, feel the modern game is more perimeter oriented on offense/defense. But you could make an argument either way.

One thing that's interesting/quirky is Kawhi's 3pt% in the playoffs. The guy is an assassin.

 

DGreenwood

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I think we all know that. However that doesn't mean a deal wouldn't be reached before that. We've all seen those types of things during NBA drafts.
I was just referring to the part where he said his bet was that AD was heading to the Celtics as soon as tonight.
 

HomeRunBaker

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because they desperately do not want to waste another year of Lebron
Bingo right here. The Lakers game plan has always been to "waste" one year of LeBron while identifying which of the young players if any of the young players can be counted on as complementary pieces down the road on a LeBron/AD-led team. It's pretty clear to me that Ball and Ingram are the two who don't fit well in these roles while Kuzma surely can be a big piece with his scoring particularly in leading the second unit.
 

djbayko

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On top of having to watch the B’s lose Game 7 in hostile territory, I had to talk to a bunch of drunk Lakers fans about the AD situation. They all acted like the Lakers fans I’ve encountered online - AD to the Lakers is their birthright and the Pelicans have some nerve to expect anything more than what they’re offering in their future HOF young’ins. Now I know not to poke the bear but when I dared suggest that the Celtics might be in the mix, they asked “What do they even have to offer? Nothing!”

Sorry. I know this is just a drunken anecdote but I needed to vent after holding back so much.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Based on everything I ve rad here, it seems to me that the Celtics are in the discussions in order to extend them and drive the price for Davis. It doesn't make sense to me to go for it at the price discussed. The expected value isn't not there.

All the same, in recent times, stars have been traded for prices that were far smaller an the rumors indicated.
 

Red Averages

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Based on everything I ve rad here, it seems to me that the Celtics are in the discussions in order to extend them and drive the price for Davis. It doesn't make sense to me to go for it at the price discussed. The expected value isn't not there.

All the same, in recent times, stars have been traded for prices that were far smaller an the rumors indicated.
We should assume that everything being leaked is from the Pelicans side given they are trying to drive demand. Supply is fixed in this case.
 

dano7594

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I agree I think the leaks are from the Pelicans as well. Griffin knows Ainge well, he knows he despises the Lakers and losing to them, I believe the Celtics vs Lakers for Davis was put out there because Griffin is trying to extract one last asset from Ainge. I believe AD is what Ainge has been waiting for, and now that he is this close, I sincerely believe Ainge does not lose here. Trading Tatum though makes me queasy.
 

DrewDawg

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Blast from the past.

The proposed trade that would have sent Kevin Garnett to Boston, agreed to in principle by ex-teammates Kevin McHale and Danny Ainge, was taken off the table Thursday after Garnett got word to the Celtics that he doesn't want to play for them.
Does this sound familiar:

Without at least a strong indication that Garnett would be willing to sign an extension with the Celtics, Ainge would be parting with virtually every enticing trade chip Boston has for what amounts to a one-year rental
 

PedroKsBambino

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Based on everything I ve rad here, it seems to me that the Celtics are in the discussions in order to extend them and drive the price for Davis. It doesn't make sense to me to go for it at the price discussed. The expected value isn't not there.

All the same, in recent times, stars have been traded for prices that were far smaller an the rumors indicated.
Why would Celtics bother just to drive up the price? All you'd accomplish is annoying Griffin. Fans think of "Celtics vs Lakers" but Ainge is just thinking about how to do the best for the team....I don't think he's focused on the Lakers, or on any other team in particular, he's just trying to add an alpha. And there's no more likely way to get one right now than AD, which is why he's in the discussion imo.
 

DrewDawg

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Seeing some rather interesting 3 team trades online--one gets AD to Boston and keeps Smart and Tatum. Silly season indeed.
 

lexrageorge

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Why would Celtics bother just to drive up the price? All you'd accomplish is annoying Griffin. Fans think of "Celtics vs Lakers" but Ainge is just thinking about how to do the best for the team....I don't think he's focused on the Lakers, or on any other team in particular, he's just trying to add an alpha. And there's no more likely way to get one right now than AD, which is why he's in the discussion imo.
If the Celtics drive up the price, I don't think Griffin would be annoyed. If he does get annoyed, I would argue that's not Ainge's problem to address.
 

bakahump

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@nighthob

The thrust of my post, and I probably said it badly, is not necessarily that "Boston is awesome so stay". But rather a year down the road it may make business sense for Klutch to abandon the hijack. I suggested this because at that point Lebron may (or may not) be showing signs of a continued break down due to age and Minutes played.

IOW I could see how Lebron might leverage one business (Klutch) to "supplement" his other business (Winning for the Lakers) if the Benefits outweighed the negatives. But if he was leveraging Klutch to get AD to the Lakers, while simultaneously breaking down physically and making winning (championships) unlikely then there is a long term stain on Klutch.

I am probably giving Lebron to much credit. But Klutch will be around for 10-20-30 more years. While his NBA career might not last 3.
I may also be over estimating his physical breakdown over the next couple years.

I guess it would be similar to TB saying "I am not letting TB 12 treat any non Patriot" Maybe good for the next year or two but a bad look long term.
 

PedroKsBambino

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If the Celtics drive up the price, I don't think Griffin would be annoyed. If he does get annoyed, I would argue that's not Ainge's problem to address.
That's only true if Griffin never actually needs Ainge to be willing to make a deal. What would annoy Griffin is if Celtics are mucking around and not serious about a deal. So my assumption is they only bother to engage if they are fairly serious about the deal itself.
 

lexrageorge

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The obvious solution is to trade for Davis and resign Kyrie. Then convince Rich Paul that Boston is really where it's at, and that LeBron should close out his storied career wearing the Green. Trade Hayward to the Lakers, and everyone is happy. Now let me run and duck for cover.
 

DrewDawg

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@nighthob

The thrust of my post, and I probably said it badly, is not necessarily that "Boston is awesome so stay". But rather a year down the road it may make business sense for Klutch to abandon the hijack. I suggested this because at that point Lebron may (or may not) be showing signs of a continued break down due to age and Minutes played.

Yes. This is the potential problem for Klutch/Lebron---if Boston acquires AD, Lebron may decide "Okay, I'm gonna be 35 this season, I can't waste another season, the Lakers need to sign players/make moves" and in doing so that will impact the cap space needed to sign AD next summer. It may still work out, but it's a wrench--which is why the Lakers want to avoid that nonsense and trade for him now. Things can change in a year.
 

lovegtm

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Yes. This is the potential problem for Klutch/Lebron---if Boston acquires AD, Lebron may decide "Okay, I'm gonna be 35 this season, I can't waste another season, the Lakers need to sign players/make moves" and in doing so that will impact the cap space needed to sign AD next summer. It may still work out, but it's a wrench--which is why the Lakers want to avoid that nonsense and trade for him now. Things can change in a year.
Yeah, I mean as we tragically saw in the Finals, things can change in a day. I think this time next year we’ll have a far different opinion on the prospects of Player LeBron, and it will likely be much better or much worse.
 

bakahump

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Right @DrewDawg thats a further complication for the Lakers/Klutch.

They are getting down to brass tacks time. They either need to get Lebron some help (Cause he cant physically do it all by himself anymore and because its the West) or they need to realize that "Doing everything to make Lebrons NBA career comfy, damn everyone else" is a bad Business model for Klutch.

I mentioned in my longer post (again probably not well) that even if the Labronkers did punt on this coming season knowing that in 2020-21 he is coming (because say AD is with "Charlotte") then they will need to sign 1 year wonders to back Lebron up for 19-20. Those players will do nothing to move the needle and force Lebron to carry the load again, further building wear and tear.

So best case if someone other then the lakers trade for AD is that AD shows up in 20-21 to team with a 36 yo Lebron who has played another 3000+ minutes.

The Lakers still wont be able fill around them very effectively because those 2 will be eating massive amounts of cap space. Lebron will continue to decline physically, While AD will remain in his peak but both with little other help.

Its really the same even if they trade for AD. AD will be left as a 31 yo, with No draft picks (because they traded them away to acquire him) and a bunch of journey men filler from the last Lebron years.
Meanwhile Lebron will be mogul-ing over his empire unphased at the position he left AD and the lakers.

While Klutch might try and make 19-20 Hell in a locker room. I would be reiterating the above every day to AD. "Man, AD anyone who signs with the Lakers will be trying to drag Lebrons 36 yo corpse to another championship with little ability to get any additional help". If Lebron has an injury or 2 during the season or falls off even slightly you simple smile and shake your head knowingly.
 

DrewDawg

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And some other team may be the apple of AD's eye next summer--it doesn't mean it will be Boston. But the Lakers need to get this done via trade if they can. That will wrap up AD in that ugly purple and gold for years. If they don't there's a chance it never happens.
 

OurF'ingCity

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And some other team may be the apple of AD's eye next summer--it doesn't mean it will be Boston. But the Lakers need to get this done via trade if they can. That will wrap up AD in that ugly purple and gold for years. If they don't there's a chance it never happens.
Right - it's amazing to me how quickly people seem to have forgotten the Paul George saga, which was almost literally the exact same scenario, down to PG's camp saying the exact same things about being a rental:

Teams are trying to decide what is the appropriate cost for a player who they are being told pretty adamantly by Paul George’s camp will be a rental. No matter who you are, no matter who has checked in or who potentially will check in about him, they are going to be told that Paul George is going to play this season out and then he is going to go to the Lakers. That’s his plan.
Except then, of course, he didn't go to the Lakers because he realized he liked playing with Westbrook in OKC. AD's situation is a bit different due to the Klutch wrinkle but the point is we've been here before and what a player says a year before free agency should be taken with a massive grain of salt no matter how emphatic those statements are.
 

Nick Kaufman

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Why would Celtics bother just to drive up the price? All you'd accomplish is annoying Griffin. Fans think of "Celtics vs Lakers" but Ainge is just thinking about how to do the best for the team....I don't think he's focused on the Lakers, or on any other team in particular, he's just trying to add an alpha. And there's no more likely way to get one right now than AD, which is why he's in the discussion imo.
Why would Griffin be annoyed? He ought to love that we re driving the price he can get from the Lakers.

As to why would Ainge do it, don't teams do that all the time? Don't teams do disingenuous offers on restricted free agents so that home teams are forced to offer the max? The more assets the Lakers give, the less competitive they will be.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Why would Griffin be annoyed? He ought to love that we re driving the price he can get from the Lakers.

As to why would Ainge do it, don't teams do that all the time? Don't teams do disingenuous offers on restricted free agents so that home teams are forced to offer the max? The more assets the Lakers give, the less competitive they will be.
I answered first question above.

On the second, I just don't think so. I think occasionaly there are dynamics that incent bidding guys up---there's two teams each looking for a starting PG and a backup C and they target the same guys at each position, thus there's a benefit of pushing price ofr one in order to reduce competitiveness on the other. But that's a pretty specific situation. In this case, if the Celtics and Lakers are both competing for Bradley Beal as well, perhaps they might try to bid up AD to remove them from the other discussion, but that's a hard scenario to really put together.

I think it is almost never they just bid on guys to raies the price for others. That, I believe, is more a fantasy baseball auction notion rather than the real thing. I think many teams check in on a player who is avaiable in trade---many more than are publicly reported---but their interest is sincere, not solely or even primarily done for purposes of playing games iwth the market value.

The reason for this is that it's a pretty big market---for any player who is any good there's almost always 5+ teams who can bid for them so the incremental "price" pressure of any team is limited. And, the relationships are long---if you screw around with insincere offers the 'selling' GM might like it but the agent likely won't, and the GM of the other acquiring team won't, and you're dealing with all these people on an ongoing basis. It's just not worth it time/value wise.
 

PedroKsBambino

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point taken but I think the Paul George piece of data can be discounted because based on the statement above alone, Paul George is clearly clinically insane.

:)
Well, would you rather be playing with Westbrook or living in the circus that the Lakers have been the past 18 months? I'd actually select door number 1, even acknowledging having George and winning more would have reduced some aspects of the circus
 

cheech13

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Right - it's amazing to me how quickly people seem to have forgotten the Paul George saga, which was almost literally the exact same scenario, down to PG's camp saying the exact same things about being a rental:



Except then, of course, he didn't go to the Lakers because he realized he liked playing with Westbrook in OKC. AD's situation is a bit different due to the Klutch wrinkle but the point is we've been here before and what a player says a year before free agency should be taken with a massive grain of salt no matter how emphatic those statements are.
It's not just a wrinkle. Paul George's agent is Aaron Mintz of CAA, who has somewhat notoriously clashed with both Rob Pelinka and the Lakers over the years. Paul George, D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle all share Mintz as an agent. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots there.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Well, would you rather be playing with Westbrook or living in the circus that the Lakers have been the past 18 months? I'd actually select door number 1, even acknowledging having George and winning more would have reduced some aspects of the circus
If my goal is to win a championship, I'm picking LBJ last year.

Look, I understand that we sit here on a message board and write analysis about decisions in which we have no emotional involvement and there could be a ton of other reasons why PG stayed in OKC, but Russell Westbrook couldn't win a championship with KD, Ibaka, and (at times) Harden. What makes anyone think that he could win a championship with PG?

I wonder if PG re-upped with OKC because he thought no one was going to beat GSW and losing in OKC would be more enjoyable than losing in LA with LBJ.
 

lexrageorge

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I answered first question above.

On the second, I just don't think so. I think occasionaly there are dynamics that incent bidding guys up---there's two teams each looking for a starting PG and a backup C and they target the same guys at each position, thus there's a benefit of pushing price ofr one in order to reduce competitiveness on the other. But that's a pretty specific situation. In this case, if the Celtics and Lakers are both competing for Bradley Beal as well, perhaps they might try to bid up AD to remove them from the other discussion, but that's a hard scenario to really put together.

I think it is almost never they just bid on guys to raies the price for others. That, I believe, is more a fantasy baseball auction notion rather than the real thing. I think many teams check in on a player who is avaiable in trade---many more than are publicly reported---but their interest is sincere, not solely or even primarily done for purposes of playing games iwth the market value.

The reason for this is that it's a pretty big market---for any player who is any good there's almost always 5+ teams who can bid for them so the incremental "price" pressure of any team is limited. And, the relationships are long---if you screw around with insincere offers the 'selling' GM might like it but the agent likely won't, and the GM of the other acquiring team won't, and you're dealing with all these people on an ongoing basis. It's just not worth it time/value wise.
While I do believe most trade inquiries are sincere, and I don't see Ainge getting involved solely to drive the price up for another team, I do believe there was an article posted somewhere on these boards about all the misdirection that goes on behind the scenes. GM's aren't some chummy club where it's strictly "scratch my back and I'll scratch yours". They are competitive folks by nature that are always trying to gain an edge. I agree Ainge isn't going to simply make phony offers for Davis just to jack the price up. However, Ainge isn't going to simply sit back and let the Lakers get Davis for Ball and a 2nd round pick (exaggeration alert) either without at least making an offer of his own.

If the end result is that the Lakers end up paying more for Davis than they had originally wanted, and Griffin had to cancel a dinner engagement, I don't think Ainge is going to lose any sleep over Pelinka's and Griffin's feelings.
 

OurF'ingCity

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It's not just a wrinkle. Paul George's agent is Aaron Mintz of CAA, who has somewhat notoriously clashed with both Rob Pelinka and the Lakers over the years. Paul George, D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle all share Mintz as an agent. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots there.
I get that. My point more generally was that a lot can change over the course of a season/offseason in any player's mind - which is one reason (LBJ's shelf-life being one of the others) why the Lakers would be willing to part with significant assets to acquire AD now even if Rich Paul told them point blank, "I guarantee you that Davis will sign with you guys next year."
 

InstaFace

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On top of having to watch the B’s lose Game 7 in hostile territory, I had to talk to a bunch of drunk Lakers fans about the AD situation. They all acted like the Lakers fans I’ve encountered online - AD to the Lakers is their birthright and the Pelicans have some nerve to expect anything more than what they’re offering in their future HOF young’ins. Now I know not to poke the bear but when I dared suggest that the Celtics might be in the mix, they asked “What do they even have to offer? Nothing!”

Sorry. I know this is just a drunken anecdote but I needed to vent after holding back so much.
When did they let you out of lock-up?