Maybe not, but if NO really wants Tatum, they may be willing to to eat a larger deal for someone like Rozier.Yes, lol. I’m not seeing it, but go with god, Terry.
We can S&T Morris too right?
Maybe not, but if NO really wants Tatum, they may be willing to to eat a larger deal for someone like Rozier.Yes, lol. I’m not seeing it, but go with god, Terry.
Yes. Also Theis.Maybe not, but if NO really wants Tatum, they may be willing to to eat a larger deal for someone like Rozier.
We can S&T Morris too right?
Morris’ shitty finish to the season helps here imo. There won’t be teams lining up to give him 4/60 the way there would have been had he played the 2nd half of the season like the first. Rozier is a similar case, but Morris is even easier to set up a 2 year overpay for, where everyone is happy.Right. Rozier or any other S&T player won't be there to add any value to the trade. They're just there to make the money match, so they will probably be overpayed.
If you use Morris in a sign and trade the contract has to be a minimum of three years.Morris’ shitty finish to the season helps here imo. There won’t be teams lining up to give him 4/60 the way there would have been had he played the 2nd half of the season like the first. Rozier is a similar case, but Morris is even easier to set up a 2 year overpay for, where everyone is happy.
This is why I’ve had a lot of trust in Zarren throughout this process of coming up with salary matches. Getting Theis lined up and having the optionality with his Early Bird rights could be the difference in keeping Marcus Smart.Yes. Also Theis.
Their "high first round pick" isn't likely to make a huge impact. I think they'd like to finish badly next year and land a high pick in the '20 draft. Put another way they value '21 victories more than '20 ones.Is anyone concerned that Griffin will value Smart highly enough to make that a sticking point? Adding Tatum, Smart, and NO’s high first rounder to a team that already has prime Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle, and a couple other pieces could make a decent team quite quickly, with room to nail some moves around the edges and be good, Indy-style.
Also Jonathan Gibson.Yes. Also Theis.
I don't think so. Smart has a lot more value to a contender than a rebuilder in my opinion. Also, Randle has a player option next year. He's surely opting out and the Pelicans don't have full Bird rights on him. I'd guess he's 50/50 to stay, and if he does it'll be an overpay eating up any cap space the Pelicans have. Also think it's much more likely if they trade AD, they also try to trade Jrue rather than try to compete in a loaded west.Is anyone concerned that Griffin will value Smart highly enough to make that a sticking point? Adding Tatum, Smart, and NO’s high first rounder to a team that already has prime Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle, and a couple other pieces could make a decent team quite quickly, with room to nail some moves around the edges and be good, Indy-style.
I'm well aware of how NBA team-building works wrt the draft and the value of bottoming out. The thing is, the bolded is the key imo. There are 3 rough forms of directive Griffin might get from ownership:Assets whose main value is now, rather than in 3-4+ years from now, should be negatively valued by Griffin, as winning more games next season hurts him rather than helps. He should plan to bottom out (though maybe not for multiple years - ownership doesn't like going full Hinkie, apparently) and then start building up with his new trove of draft picks and young acquired talent. I have to imagine he'd place a pretty low value on acquiring Smart, all else equal, unless he really values the locker-room culture aspect of Smart's attitude and approach. Smart is much more valuable to a contender than to a rebuilding team.
I would, even in this scenario, say probably not.I'm well aware of how NBA team-building works wrt the draft and the value of bottoming out. The thing is, the bolded is the key imo. There are 3 rough forms of directive Griffin might get from ownership:
1. Rebuild: get us good draft assets the next 2-3 years, develop whomever we get back in the AD trade
2. Run the team however you think is the best way; we want championships and to not have Adam Silver get mad at us like he did the 76ers
3. Make the playoffs as fast as possible while still getting Zion or Tatum
In scenarios 1 and 2, Griffin absolutely doesn't want Smart. But we've seen teams like the T-Wolves and the Pacers lean more towards #3, so it's not inconceivable that ownership would tell him that, even if it's a low chance. In that scenario, doesn't he push hard for Smart?
I don’t think NO will particularly demand him, but he also shouldn’t be a deal breaker for DA. If they ask for Smart as a piece, you mitigate elsewhere and if they hold off, you cave. Brow is a top 5 player. You don’t draw a line in the sand over Smart; you can replace what he does a lot easier than what Brow does, but that’s just imho.OK, you guys have convinced me it's very, very unlikely that Griffin will want Smart. Since the Celtics also definitely want to keep Smart, and there are so many other paths to matching salary, have to think he'll be staying.
I sure hope that’s not light. That’s the Tatum package, which they don’t have to accept. If NO would prefer the pupu platter, of all our assets, they get lesser players - perhaps Brown. If they highly value Tatum (and they should) we should use that to our advantage. Keep picks for our own future growth or add Tatum to our Championship core.Still think the easiest is to pick someone for NO at #14 and wait the 30 days to include him in the trade. Nice way to get some additional money (2.88 million salary slot). Get Rozier and N) to something north of 3/48 and with it only counting for 50% the money is there.
Tatum (7.67 million) + Rozier (8.00) + Yabu (3.12) + #14 pick (2.88)
Is that a light haul for someone like AD? Unsure. Tatum is the prize, but the #14 pick is valuable. Adding the MEM pick seems like a big overpay in comparison to what other stars with one year left have gone for.
Na, not a light haul. Just the fact that Tatum is in there puts it as a bigger haul than any superstar trade I can think of in recent years. (Not Celtics homerism: the overall league/GM opinion of Tatum, which is very high.)Still think the easiest is to pick someone for NO at #14 and wait the 30 days to include him in the trade. Nice way to get some additional money (2.88 million salary slot). Get Rozier and N) to something north of 3/48 and with it only counting for 50% the money is there.
Tatum (7.67 million) + Rozier (8.00) + Yabu (3.12) + #14 pick (2.88)
Is that a light haul for someone like AD? Unsure. Tatum is the prize, but the #14 pick is valuable. Adding the MEM pick seems like a big overpay in comparison to what other stars with one year left have gone for.
Kevin Love for Wiggins is probably the closest. Love was perceived at the time as a top-10 player, but a tier below AD (due to the defensive gap--Love was a freaking awesome offensive talent in his prime), while Tatum has higher value than Wiggins, simply because he has proved a ton in the NBA while still having lots of team control.Who was the last superstar on a 1 year deal that got dealt for a player of Tatum's value?
Kevin Love for Wiggins is probably the closest. Love was perceived at the time as a top-10 player, but a tier below AD (due to the defensive gap--Love was a freaking awesome offensive talent in his prime), while Tatum has higher value than Wiggins, simply because he has proved a ton in the NBA while still having lots of team control.
Others (note: when I talk about player value, I'm talking about league perception/valuation at the time of the trade. Obviously Oladipo, Hield and Markaanen have turned out quite well for the acquiring teams):
To sum up: Tatum would be the highest price paid for a superstar in a long time. Teams simply don't ever trade 3rd year, top 3 picks, who have shown the progression Tatum has in his first 2 years. Even Jaylen as a centerpiece would be getting towards the top end of a typical superstar deal, particularly if it were last summer's Jaylen.
- Kawhi -- got a vet with 1/4 Kawhi's value or lower, low ceiling solid young guy, and a very low draft pick; the injury and flight risk were priced in heavily
- Dwight Howard -- really comparable to AD's situation--Dwight was seen as an MVP candidate/franchise changer at the time, and was also expected to re-sign in LA. Dwight got a Melo/Harden type package: Vucevic, tradeable role player in Affalo, and a handful of crappy draft picks
- Butler -- Got Markaanen and Dunn and LaVine, had to send a #16 pick back. None of those players was anywhere close to Tatum at the time, and LaVine also had to get paid right away.
- George -- Oladipo, between contract and league perception, had about 1/5 of the value that Tatum does currently
- Cousins -- hilariously, this now looks like one of the better hauls. At the time, it was considered an underpay resulting from Cousin's temperament. Hield's value was less than 1/5 of a Jayson Tatum's, and the pick sent was lower lotto
- Melo -- considered one of the better star hauls wrt quantity, but there was no one in the deal anywhere close to the perception of Tatum
- Harden -- Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb (late lotto), the pick that became Steven Adams, and flotsam
- Deron Williams -- Derrick Favors was a #3 pick who hadn't shown nearly as much as Tatum at the time of the trade
All that said, there's a reason the Cavs had to pay such a high price in the Love trade: they had a star who was only coming/staying conditional on the trade being made, and they had the top-end asset, which gave the trade partner an anchoring point. The Celtics are in an almost exactly analogous position wrt Kyrie and having Tatum (or Brown, if he somehow breaks out again in the next few weeks).
The point of this exercise isn't that the Celtics won't deal Tatum, but rather that including the Memphis pick on top of him would make the total price of this trade 2x+ more than any team has paid for a star in the current NBA era. The other point is that no team that thinks it can sign AD can touch Tatum as an asset, unless the Sixers put Embiid or Simmons on the table or the Knicks/Lakers win the lotto for Zion.
It's in my very first sentence in the clip you quoted, the 2nd sentence too, and again in the 2nd-to-last paragraphI’d add the Wiggins for Love deal. Wiggins had a ton of value as the reigning #1 overall pick.
Yeah, the KG deal is firmly in the Melo/Dwight/Harden realm, on the low-end of that, but KG was already old at the time relative to those other guys.Great post.
Fwiw, don't forget that Al Jefferson was the centerpiece of the KG deal as well. Tatum plus salary plus Memphis (whether 9 or future) plus a non-lottery first is a home run result for NOP. And it is for us too, if KI and AD resign.
I trust DA and staff to gauge intentions accurately and spin salary cap/tax magic appropriately. It's a heavy lift for sure, but there's a path.
Doh!It's in my very first sentence in the clip you quoted, the 2nd sentence too, and again in the 2nd-to-last paragraph
Yup, Griffin will argue that. Ainge will say that that’s why he’s paying the highest trade price in the past 20 years, and that, historically speaking, AD is also a flight risk until the next contract is signed, regardless of guarantees given. I don’t think anyone will feel screwed here.lovegtm is killing it here. thanks for some legitimately great analysis, this stuff is why I read this board.
I'll just add that Davis's age is far less a concern than it was for many of these other comps, given that he just turned 26. If I were Griffin I'd be arguing that he's healthy and just entering his prime and conceivably could even improve during his Celtics lifetime.
I think the accepted acronym for the Lakers these days is LOL. And here's hoping that Tatum does go supernova and becomes untouchable. Because you hate to trade an all star for a one year rental.As long as Zion doesn't go to LAL/NYC/Phil, Philly doesn't offer Simmons/Embiid, Kyrie wants to stay in Boston with AD, and Tatum doesn't go supernova the next month and convince Kyrie that he wants him instead of AD (yes yes pedants, I know how vanishingly unlikely this is), I expect the deal to be done on July 1 as Tatum+filler (Rozier and an overpaid Theis or Morris), without the Memphis pick included, and maybe not even the SAC one.
Regarding age at time of trade:lovegtm is killing it here. thanks for some legitimately great analysis, this stuff is why I read this board.
I'll just add that Davis's age is far less a concern than it was for many of these other comps, given that he just turned 26. If I were Griffin I'd be arguing that he's healthy and just entering his prime and conceivably could even improve during his Celtics lifetime.
Agreed! Thanks for taking the time.lovegtm is killing it here. thanks for some legitimately great analysis, this stuff is why I read t
I think with Tatum and Rozier you've already spent as much as you should. However, as they won't be keeping around four max guys, one of Hayward or Horford will be outbound. And it's easy to make up the necessary salary in that fashion.Also, since it will probably come up with potential overpays on S&Ts: there’s a standard price in the league for unloading a $10-18M/year contract, and that’s a first rounder in the 20s. I would expect to see the LAC or Boston pick go as compensation for taking an overpriced Theis or Morris.
Boredom on vacation is a helluva drug.Agreed! Thanks for taking the time.
I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.I think the accepted acronym for the Lakers these days is LOL. And here's hoping that Tatum does go supernova and becomes untouchable. Because you hate to trade an all star for a one year rental.
As support for this, I recently read somewhere (it’s alluding me now) that Cleveland was shopping around JR Smith’s contract and the cost was a 1st rounder. He has a unique contract in that only a few million of the $15M total is guaranteed, so a team could trade a similar salary for him and subsequently waive him to save about $12M. I could see NO asking Boston to send either the 20th or 22nd pick to Cleveland in return for them taking either Hill or Moore. Since Boston is one of the only teams that has multiple “spare” firsts, that’s another nice component of a trade they can offer that another team like LAL can’t.Also, since it will probably come up with potential overpays on S&Ts: there’s a standard price in the league for unloading a $10-18M/year contract, and that’s a first rounder in the 20s. I would expect to see the LAC or Boston pick go as compensation for taking an overpriced Theis or Morris.
Justise Winslow says hi. Although, to be fair, iirc there were more protections on the offered picks than was reported initially.I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.
Maybe my faith is misguided given Ainge's spotty deal-making track record but I can live with the idea that he'll finally get one right this time.
In all seriousness, do you really see Boston trading one of, if not their best cost controlled assets for just a one year rental? And do you agree that Ainge has consistently seemed to take a long view in making deals?
There are so many ways to keep Smart that I doubt they’d add the complexity of a 3rd team simply to achieve that goal.As support for this, I recently read somewhere (it’s alluding me now) that Cleveland was shopping around JR Smith’s contract and the cost was a 1st rounder. He has a unique contract in that only a few million of the $15M total is guaranteed, so a team could trade a similar salary for him and subsequently waive him to save about $12M. I could see NO asking Boston to send either the 20th or 22nd pick to Cleveland in return for them taking either Hill or Moore.
Also, I know I’ve been beating this drum but if an AD trade was larger in outgoing salary, such as by making it a 3-team transaction (Hayward or Horford for KD), that would allow them to keep Smart. I believe they could also use Larkin in a S&T if I’m not mistaken as I don’t believe he signed with an NBA team last year.
AD is the white whale. I think Ainge makes the gamble. The upside of AD is just so alluring. We’re talking about a younger KG level MVP talent. Losing Tatum would suck. Losing him for a 1 year player would REALLY suck. But I think you take that risk if Kyrie is fully on board.I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.
Maybe my faith is misguided given Ainge's spotty deal-making track record but I can live with the idea that he'll finally get one right this time.
In all seriousness, do you really see Boston trading one of, if not their best cost controlled assets for just a one year rental? And do you agree that Ainge has consistently seemed to take a long view in making deals?
HUH???????? to the bolded part.I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.
Maybe my faith is misguided given Ainge's spotty deal-making track record but I can live with the idea that he'll finally get one right this time.
In all seriousness, do you really see Boston trading one of, if not their best cost controlled assets for just a one year rental? And do you agree that Ainge has consistently seemed to take a long view in making deals?
Perhaps I’m not being clear, so let me address this as a two part question using the previous example of this phenomenon, Kawhi Leonard.I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.
Maybe my faith is misguided given Ainge's spotty deal-making track record but I can live with the idea that he'll finally get one right this time.
In all seriousness, do you really see Boston trading one of, if not their best cost controlled assets for just a one year rental? And do you agree that Ainge has consistently seemed to take a long view in making deals?
This is factually inaccurate wrt to Leonard. He specifically declined to give Toronto (or Boston) any assurances about re-signing, and that’s a big reason his price was so low, and why the Celtics wouldn’t deal Jaylen for him (in addition to the injury uncertainty).Perhaps I’m not being clear, so let me address this as a two part question using the previous example of this phenomenon, Kawhi Leonard.
I think that at this point the relationship with the Pelicans is so poisoned that Davis will tell any team trading for him anything they want to hear. If you were to demand that he tell you about the time he was anal probed by an alien race from Arcturus he’ll give you all the details. But it’s still bullshit and he’s almost certainly leaving at the end of 2020 for a starring role in the Space Jam reboot.
Basically this happened last year with Kawhi, the Spurs relationship was so toxic that he was willing to say anything to escape. Toronto did trade for him, but what did they actually trade? Essentially a less than optimal contract that they wanted out from under (much like the Wiz will regard that Wall deal very soon), a high floor/low ceiling prospect, and a low first. Honestly Toronto would likely have paid that price to get out of the DeRozan contract to begin with, getting a year of Leonard was just a bonus.
There is a nigh on 100% certainty that Davis is a rental no matter what he says to get out of New Orleans. Making the public appearance in the Looney Tunes shirt with the Space Jam reboot lurking is pretty much as open a declaration of his desires as there can be. So, yeah, I hope that Tatum goes supernova and takes himself off the table, or that the LOL win the Zion Sweepstakes and trade everything for Davis.
So you are aware of this but Ainge isn't? Or are you, like BSF, arguing that Ainge will take the risk regardless?Perhaps I’m not being clear, so let me address this as a two part question using the previous example of this phenomenon, Kawhi Leonard.
I think that at this point the relationship with the Pelicans is so poisoned that Davis will tell any team trading for him anything they want to hear. If you were to demand that he tell you about the time he was anal probed by an alien race from Arcturus he’ll give you all the details. But it’s still bullshit and he’s almost certainly leaving at the end of 2020 for a starring role in the Space Jam reboot.
Basically this happened last year with Kawhi, the Spurs relationship was so toxic that he was willing to say anything to escape. Toronto did trade for him, but what did they actually trade? Essentially a less than optimal contract that they wanted out from under (much like the Wiz will regard that Wall deal very soon), a high floor/low ceiling prospect, and a low first. Honestly Toronto would likely have paid that price to get out of the DeRozan contract to begin with, getting a year of Leonard was just a bonus.
There is a nigh on 100% certainty that Davis is a rental no matter what he says to get out of New Orleans. Making the public appearance in the Looney Tunes shirt with the Space Jam reboot lurking is pretty much as open a declaration of his desires as there can be. So, yeah, I hope that Tatum goes supernova and takes himself off the table, or that the LOL win the Zion Sweepstakes and trade everything for Davis.