Anthony Davis: No Loyalty

DJnVa

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Yes, lol. I’m not seeing it, but go with god, Terry.
Maybe not, but if NO really wants Tatum, they may be willing to to eat a larger deal for someone like Rozier.

We can S&T Morris too right?
 

NoXInNixon

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Right. Rozier or any other S&T player won't be there to add any value to the trade. They're just there to make the money match, so they will probably be overpayed.
 

lovegtm

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Right. Rozier or any other S&T player won't be there to add any value to the trade. They're just there to make the money match, so they will probably be overpayed.
Morris’ shitty finish to the season helps here imo. There won’t be teams lining up to give him 4/60 the way there would have been had he played the 2nd half of the season like the first. Rozier is a similar case, but Morris is even easier to set up a 2 year overpay for, where everyone is happy.
 

cheech13

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Morris’ shitty finish to the season helps here imo. There won’t be teams lining up to give him 4/60 the way there would have been had he played the 2nd half of the season like the first. Rozier is a similar case, but Morris is even easier to set up a 2 year overpay for, where everyone is happy.
If you use Morris in a sign and trade the contract has to be a minimum of three years.
 

lovegtm

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Yes. Also Theis.
This is why I’ve had a lot of trust in Zarren throughout this process of coming up with salary matches. Getting Theis lined up and having the optionality with his Early Bird rights could be the difference in keeping Marcus Smart.

Is anyone concerned that Griffin will value Smart highly enough to make that a sticking point? Adding Tatum, Smart, and NO’s high first rounder to a team that already has prime Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle, and a couple other pieces could make a decent team quite quickly, with room to nail some moves around the edges and be good, Indy-style.
 

InstaFace

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Assets whose main value is now, rather than in 3-4+ years from now, should be negatively valued by Griffin, as winning more games next season hurts him rather than helps. He should plan to bottom out (though maybe not for multiple years - ownership doesn't like going full Hinkie, apparently) and then start building up with his new trove of draft picks and young acquired talent. I have to imagine he'd place a pretty low value on acquiring Smart, all else equal, unless he really values the locker-room culture aspect of Smart's attitude and approach. Smart is much more valuable to a contender than to a rebuilding team.
 

nighthob

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Is anyone concerned that Griffin will value Smart highly enough to make that a sticking point? Adding Tatum, Smart, and NO’s high first rounder to a team that already has prime Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle, and a couple other pieces could make a decent team quite quickly, with room to nail some moves around the edges and be good, Indy-style.
Their "high first round pick" isn't likely to make a huge impact. I think they'd like to finish badly next year and land a high pick in the '20 draft. Put another way they value '21 victories more than '20 ones.
 

mcpickl

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Yes. Also Theis.
Also Jonathan Gibson.

I think Rozier makes the most sense. He's much younger than Morris, and a starting option for New Orleans unlike Theis, which makes more sense for what will be a rebuilding Pelicans team. Rozier will be looking for a starting job and starters money. There aren't going to be a lot of those spots open, a handful at most, so being able to lock in what will likely be an overpay to get a starting gig would probably appeal to him.

Is anyone concerned that Griffin will value Smart highly enough to make that a sticking point? Adding Tatum, Smart, and NO’s high first rounder to a team that already has prime Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle, and a couple other pieces could make a decent team quite quickly, with room to nail some moves around the edges and be good, Indy-style.
I don't think so. Smart has a lot more value to a contender than a rebuilder in my opinion. Also, Randle has a player option next year. He's surely opting out and the Pelicans don't have full Bird rights on him. I'd guess he's 50/50 to stay, and if he does it'll be an overpay eating up any cap space the Pelicans have. Also think it's much more likely if they trade AD, they also try to trade Jrue rather than try to compete in a loaded west.
 
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lovegtm

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Assets whose main value is now, rather than in 3-4+ years from now, should be negatively valued by Griffin, as winning more games next season hurts him rather than helps. He should plan to bottom out (though maybe not for multiple years - ownership doesn't like going full Hinkie, apparently) and then start building up with his new trove of draft picks and young acquired talent. I have to imagine he'd place a pretty low value on acquiring Smart, all else equal, unless he really values the locker-room culture aspect of Smart's attitude and approach. Smart is much more valuable to a contender than to a rebuilding team.
I'm well aware of how NBA team-building works wrt the draft and the value of bottoming out. The thing is, the bolded is the key imo. There are 3 rough forms of directive Griffin might get from ownership:

1. Rebuild: get us good draft assets the next 2-3 years, develop whomever we get back in the AD trade
2. Run the team however you think is the best way; we want championships and to not have Adam Silver get mad at us like he did the 76ers
3. Make the playoffs as fast as possible while still getting Zion or Tatum

In scenarios 1 and 2, Griffin absolutely doesn't want Smart. But we've seen teams like the T-Wolves and the Pacers lean more towards #3, so it's not inconceivable that ownership would tell him that, even if it's a low chance. In that scenario, doesn't he push hard for Smart?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Marcus Smart is probably one of the least attractive players the C's could send to NO in an AD deal and I can only see Griffin taking him if he thinks he can flip him for some other assets.

Even with his improved shooting, Smart is a tough fit for just about anyone and, as others have noted, he really only makes sense for a contender. Furthermore, it has to be a contender that has scoring but can use more defense and ballhandling (I would be shocked if any GMs are fully bought in to Smart's better FG being sustainable).

When you go down lists of contenders who need a defense-first guard, its hard to see Griffin being able to source much of a market (Smart would be good on Houston and Morey is creative enough to do something but it would take a lot of maneuvering).

Of course, I am completely biased and irrational when it comes to Marcus Smart. If that is wrong, I don't want to be right.
 

mcpickl

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I'm well aware of how NBA team-building works wrt the draft and the value of bottoming out. The thing is, the bolded is the key imo. There are 3 rough forms of directive Griffin might get from ownership:

1. Rebuild: get us good draft assets the next 2-3 years, develop whomever we get back in the AD trade
2. Run the team however you think is the best way; we want championships and to not have Adam Silver get mad at us like he did the 76ers
3. Make the playoffs as fast as possible while still getting Zion or Tatum

In scenarios 1 and 2, Griffin absolutely doesn't want Smart. But we've seen teams like the T-Wolves and the Pacers lean more towards #3, so it's not inconceivable that ownership would tell him that, even if it's a low chance. In that scenario, doesn't he push hard for Smart?
I would, even in this scenario, say probably not.

If Griffin pushes hard for Smart over say a signed and traded Rozier, the rest of the package he's getting back would have to be lighter since I'd hope the Celtics value Smart>Rozier.

So does he need Smart so much that he has to have say Smart and Tatum + over Rozier and Tatum +++?

Does Smart give him that many more wins over Rozier that it's worth taking back say a first round pick or two less?

Also seems at least a bit unlikely a GM like Griffin, who probably could've had a good chance at other jobs, would have an owner force him into a direction on day one. I'd imagine he let ownership know what direction he wanted to take before they offered him the job.
 

lovegtm

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OK, you guys have convinced me it's very, very unlikely that Griffin will want Smart. Since the Celtics also definitely want to keep Smart, and there are so many other paths to matching salary, have to think he'll be staying.
 

Big John

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I think the first person Griffin will want is Tatum, and the second person will be Smart. Smart is a winner signed for reasonable money, and he's still young. If Griffin trades AD to the Celtics, he won't have forever to build a competitive team. Pelicans' ownership doesn't want another Sam Hinckie. If he tries to be Hinckie, Griffin will be back on Sirius XM in two years.
 
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Papelbon's Poutine

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OK, you guys have convinced me it's very, very unlikely that Griffin will want Smart. Since the Celtics also definitely want to keep Smart, and there are so many other paths to matching salary, have to think he'll be staying.
I don’t think NO will particularly demand him, but he also shouldn’t be a deal breaker for DA. If they ask for Smart as a piece, you mitigate elsewhere and if they hold off, you cave. Brow is a top 5 player. You don’t draw a line in the sand over Smart; you can replace what he does a lot easier than what Brow does, but that’s just imho.
 

the moops

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Still think the easiest is to pick someone for NO at #14 and wait the 30 days to include him in the trade. Nice way to get some additional money (2.88 million salary slot). Get Rozier and N) to something north of 3/48 and with it only counting for 50% the money is there.

Tatum (7.67 million) + Rozier (8.00) + Yabu (3.12) + #14 pick (2.88)

Is that a light haul for someone like AD? Unsure. Tatum is the prize, but the #14 pick is valuable. Adding the MEM pick seems like a big overpay in comparison to what other stars with one year left have gone for.
 

djbayko

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Still think the easiest is to pick someone for NO at #14 and wait the 30 days to include him in the trade. Nice way to get some additional money (2.88 million salary slot). Get Rozier and N) to something north of 3/48 and with it only counting for 50% the money is there.

Tatum (7.67 million) + Rozier (8.00) + Yabu (3.12) + #14 pick (2.88)

Is that a light haul for someone like AD? Unsure. Tatum is the prize, but the #14 pick is valuable. Adding the MEM pick seems like a big overpay in comparison to what other stars with one year left have gone for.
I sure hope that’s not light. That’s the Tatum package, which they don’t have to accept. If NO would prefer the pupu platter, of all our assets, they get lesser players - perhaps Brown. If they highly value Tatum (and they should) we should use that to our advantage. Keep picks for our own future growth or add Tatum to our Championship core.
 
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lovegtm

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Still think the easiest is to pick someone for NO at #14 and wait the 30 days to include him in the trade. Nice way to get some additional money (2.88 million salary slot). Get Rozier and N) to something north of 3/48 and with it only counting for 50% the money is there.

Tatum (7.67 million) + Rozier (8.00) + Yabu (3.12) + #14 pick (2.88)

Is that a light haul for someone like AD? Unsure. Tatum is the prize, but the #14 pick is valuable. Adding the MEM pick seems like a big overpay in comparison to what other stars with one year left have gone for.
Na, not a light haul. Just the fact that Tatum is in there puts it as a bigger haul than any superstar trade I can think of in recent years. (Not Celtics homerism: the overall league/GM opinion of Tatum, which is very high.)

With all the moving parts involved here, including Kyrie’s commitment, I imagine both teams would rather just get the deal done rather than wait 30 days. Sign Theis to a deal with 2/12 guaranteed and call it a day.
 

ZMart100

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The ping pong balls will matter for the package we can assemble and if it will be enough (LAL could jump and then MEM would probably convey). It is hard to game out all the possibilities now.
 

lovegtm

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Who was the last superstar on a 1 year deal that got dealt for a player of Tatum's value?
Kevin Love for Wiggins is probably the closest. Love was perceived at the time as a top-10 player, but a tier below AD (due to the defensive gap--Love was a freaking awesome offensive talent in his prime), while Tatum has higher value than Wiggins, simply because he has proved a ton in the NBA while still having lots of team control.

Others (note: when I talk about player value, I'm talking about league perception/valuation at the time of the trade. Obviously Oladipo, Hield and Markaanen have turned out quite well for the acquiring teams):
  • Kawhi -- got a vet with 1/4 Kawhi's value or lower, low ceiling solid young guy, and a very low draft pick; the injury and flight risk were priced in heavily
  • Dwight Howard -- really comparable to AD's situation--Dwight was seen as an MVP candidate/franchise changer at the time, and was also expected to re-sign in LA. Dwight got a Melo/Harden type package: Vucevic, tradeable role player in Affalo, and a handful of crappy draft picks
  • Butler -- Got Markaanen and Dunn and LaVine, had to send a #16 pick back. None of those players was anywhere close to Tatum at the time, and LaVine also had to get paid right away.
  • George -- Oladipo, between contract and league perception, had about 1/5 of the value that Tatum does currently
  • Cousins -- hilariously, this now looks like one of the better hauls. At the time, it was considered an underpay resulting from Cousin's temperament. Hield's value was less than 1/5 of a Jayson Tatum's, and the pick sent was lower lotto
  • Melo -- considered one of the better star hauls wrt quantity, but there was no one in the deal anywhere close to the perception of Tatum
  • Harden -- Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb (late lotto), the pick that became Steven Adams, and flotsam
  • Deron Williams -- Derrick Favors was a #3 pick who hadn't shown nearly as much as Tatum at the time of the trade
To sum up: Tatum would be the highest price paid for a superstar in a long time. Teams simply don't ever trade 3rd year, top 3 picks, who have shown the progression Tatum has in his first 2 years. Even Jaylen as a centerpiece would be getting towards the top end of a typical superstar deal, particularly if it were last summer's Jaylen.

All that said, there's a reason the Cavs had to pay such a high price in the Love trade: they had a star who was only coming/staying conditional on the trade being made, and they had the top-end asset, which gave the trade partner an anchoring point. The Celtics are in an almost exactly analogous position wrt Kyrie and having Tatum (or Brown, if he somehow breaks out again in the next few weeks).

The point of this exercise isn't that the Celtics won't deal Tatum, but rather that including the Memphis pick on top of him would make the total price of this trade 2x+ more than any team has paid for a star in the current NBA era. The other point is that no team that thinks it can sign AD can touch Tatum as an asset, unless the Sixers put Embiid or Simmons on the table or the Knicks/Lakers win the lotto for Zion.
 

Jimbodandy

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Great post.

Fwiw, don't forget that Al Jefferson was the centerpiece of the KG deal as well. Tatum plus salary plus Memphis (whether 9 or future) plus a non-lottery first is a home run result for NOP. And it is for us too, if KI and AD resign.

I trust DA and staff to gauge intentions accurately and spin salary cap/tax magic appropriately. It's a heavy lift for sure, but there's a path.
 

Kliq

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Kevin Love for Wiggins is probably the closest. Love was perceived at the time as a top-10 player, but a tier below AD (due to the defensive gap--Love was a freaking awesome offensive talent in his prime), while Tatum has higher value than Wiggins, simply because he has proved a ton in the NBA while still having lots of team control.

Others (note: when I talk about player value, I'm talking about league perception/valuation at the time of the trade. Obviously Oladipo, Hield and Markaanen have turned out quite well for the acquiring teams):
  • Kawhi -- got a vet with 1/4 Kawhi's value or lower, low ceiling solid young guy, and a very low draft pick; the injury and flight risk were priced in heavily
  • Dwight Howard -- really comparable to AD's situation--Dwight was seen as an MVP candidate/franchise changer at the time, and was also expected to re-sign in LA. Dwight got a Melo/Harden type package: Vucevic, tradeable role player in Affalo, and a handful of crappy draft picks
  • Butler -- Got Markaanen and Dunn and LaVine, had to send a #16 pick back. None of those players was anywhere close to Tatum at the time, and LaVine also had to get paid right away.
  • George -- Oladipo, between contract and league perception, had about 1/5 of the value that Tatum does currently
  • Cousins -- hilariously, this now looks like one of the better hauls. At the time, it was considered an underpay resulting from Cousin's temperament. Hield's value was less than 1/5 of a Jayson Tatum's, and the pick sent was lower lotto
  • Melo -- considered one of the better star hauls wrt quantity, but there was no one in the deal anywhere close to the perception of Tatum
  • Harden -- Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb (late lotto), the pick that became Steven Adams, and flotsam
  • Deron Williams -- Derrick Favors was a #3 pick who hadn't shown nearly as much as Tatum at the time of the trade
To sum up: Tatum would be the highest price paid for a superstar in a long time. Teams simply don't ever trade 3rd year, top 3 picks, who have shown the progression Tatum has in his first 2 years. Even Jaylen as a centerpiece would be getting towards the top end of a typical superstar deal, particularly if it were last summer's Jaylen.

All that said, there's a reason the Cavs had to pay such a high price in the Love trade: they had a star who was only coming/staying conditional on the trade being made, and they had the top-end asset, which gave the trade partner an anchoring point. The Celtics are in an almost exactly analogous position wrt Kyrie and having Tatum (or Brown, if he somehow breaks out again in the next few weeks).

The point of this exercise isn't that the Celtics won't deal Tatum, but rather that including the Memphis pick on top of him would make the total price of this trade 2x+ more than any team has paid for a star in the current NBA era. The other point is that no team that thinks it can sign AD can touch Tatum as an asset, unless the Sixers put Embiid or Simmons on the table or the Knicks/Lakers win the lotto for Zion.

I’d add the Wiggins for Love deal. Wiggins had a ton of value as the reigning #1 overall pick.
 

lovegtm

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I’d add the Wiggins for Love deal. Wiggins had a ton of value as the reigning #1 overall pick.
It's in my very first sentence in the clip you quoted, the 2nd sentence too, and again in the 2nd-to-last paragraph :)
 
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lovegtm

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Great post.

Fwiw, don't forget that Al Jefferson was the centerpiece of the KG deal as well. Tatum plus salary plus Memphis (whether 9 or future) plus a non-lottery first is a home run result for NOP. And it is for us too, if KI and AD resign.

I trust DA and staff to gauge intentions accurately and spin salary cap/tax magic appropriately. It's a heavy lift for sure, but there's a path.
Yeah, the KG deal is firmly in the Melo/Dwight/Harden realm, on the low-end of that, but KG was already old at the time relative to those other guys.

Danny and Griffin have a very long-standing, honest relationship, going back to Danny giving Griffin one of his first jobs. They worked together on the Zeller deal that brought the pick that ended up being IT. Griffin did an interview the other day where he talked about the fact that neither of them really try to BS the other, and they're both intimately familiar with the pricing on star deals.

As long as Zion doesn't go to LAL/NYC/Phil, Philly doesn't offer Simmons/Embiid, Kyrie wants to stay in Boston with AD, and Tatum doesn't go supernova the next month and convince Kyrie that he wants him instead of AD (yes yes pedants, I know how vanishingly unlikely this is), I expect the deal to be done on July 1 as Tatum+filler (Rozier and an overpaid Theis or Morris), without the Memphis pick included, and maybe not even the SAC one.
 

lovegtm

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I think it's also important to go more into why teams never pay equivalent on-court value (at the time of the trade) for a star, because it intuitively feels weird that Jayson Tatum is a godfather offer for someone like AD, who is clearly in a different stratosphere wrt on-court value.

The usual reason given is that the team giving up the star is getting more team control at a lower cost, even if the acquired players/picks have a lower overall expected value. In addition, the acquired star is sometimes a flight risk. That's all a big part of it, but looking at that list, there's also another factor that isn't talked about enough: the performance/aging risk of the acquired star, who is usually 26-30 years old.

Melo: stayed elite offensively for ~4-5 years of the contract, team didn't build around him
Dwight: declined a bit in performance, left when that would have been unthinkable a year prior, and then declined rapidly in what would have been his 3rd/4th years in LA
Kawhi: massive flight risk to LAC and an injury risk at the time, although this was priced in. I give Masai a ton of credit here, because the DeRozan contract on its own might have quickly become hard to trade.
George: everything is awesome, although Victor is also really good!
Butler: forced his way out a year later despite having made the playoffs and being under contract
Cousins: catastrophic injury a year in
Harden: everything is awesome, we win!
Deron Williams: broke down soon after driving off the lot
Garnett: everything is awesome, we win! (with about expected injury luck given his age)

The history for the star acquirers shows that acquiring the star is far from a sure thing, even in the near term. And all of these risk factors (injury, flight, age-related decline) are very much present for AD (which is why nighthob wants to stay the hell away, but the same factors are also just as present for KD).
 

InstaFace

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lovegtm is killing it here. thanks for some legitimately great analysis, this stuff is why I read this board.

I'll just add that Davis's age is far less a concern than it was for many of these other comps, given that he just turned 26. If I were Griffin I'd be arguing that he's healthy and just entering his prime and conceivably could even improve during his Celtics lifetime.
 

lovegtm

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lovegtm is killing it here. thanks for some legitimately great analysis, this stuff is why I read this board.

I'll just add that Davis's age is far less a concern than it was for many of these other comps, given that he just turned 26. If I were Griffin I'd be arguing that he's healthy and just entering his prime and conceivably could even improve during his Celtics lifetime.
Yup, Griffin will argue that. Ainge will say that that’s why he’s paying the highest trade price in the past 20 years, and that, historically speaking, AD is also a flight risk until the next contract is signed, regardless of guarantees given. I don’t think anyone will feel screwed here.
 

lovegtm

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Addendum: it’s also fascinating that all of the best trade returns in recent memory have come not from dealing superstars, but from teams not appropriately protecting first round picks.
 

nighthob

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As long as Zion doesn't go to LAL/NYC/Phil, Philly doesn't offer Simmons/Embiid, Kyrie wants to stay in Boston with AD, and Tatum doesn't go supernova the next month and convince Kyrie that he wants him instead of AD (yes yes pedants, I know how vanishingly unlikely this is), I expect the deal to be done on July 1 as Tatum+filler (Rozier and an overpaid Theis or Morris), without the Memphis pick included, and maybe not even the SAC one.
I think the accepted acronym for the Lakers these days is LOL. And here's hoping that Tatum does go supernova and becomes untouchable. Because you hate to trade an all star for a one year rental.
 

lovegtm

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lovegtm is killing it here. thanks for some legitimately great analysis, this stuff is why I read this board.

I'll just add that Davis's age is far less a concern than it was for many of these other comps, given that he just turned 26. If I were Griffin I'd be arguing that he's healthy and just entering his prime and conceivably could even improve during his Celtics lifetime.
Regarding age at time of trade:
  • Melo: 26
  • Dwight: 27
  • Deron Williams: 26
  • Harden: 23
  • Kawhi: 27
  • Paul George: 27
  • Butler: 29
  • Cousins: 26
  • Garnett: 31
  • Love: 26
If Griffin tries to use age as a talking point, Ainge will laugh in his face, cite the exact facts I just did, and they’ll get back to negotiating.
 

lovegtm

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Also, since it will probably come up with potential overpays on S&Ts: there’s a standard price in the league for unloading a $10-18M/year contract, and that’s a first rounder in the 20s. I would expect to see the LAC or Boston pick go as compensation for taking an overpriced Theis or Morris.
 

nighthob

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Also, since it will probably come up with potential overpays on S&Ts: there’s a standard price in the league for unloading a $10-18M/year contract, and that’s a first rounder in the 20s. I would expect to see the LAC or Boston pick go as compensation for taking an overpriced Theis or Morris.
I think with Tatum and Rozier you've already spent as much as you should. However, as they won't be keeping around four max guys, one of Hayward or Horford will be outbound. And it's easy to make up the necessary salary in that fashion.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I think the accepted acronym for the Lakers these days is LOL. And here's hoping that Tatum does go supernova and becomes untouchable. Because you hate to trade an all star for a one year rental.
I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.

Maybe my faith is misguided given Ainge's spotty deal-making track record but I can live with the idea that he'll finally get one right this time.

In all seriousness, do you really see Boston trading one of, if not their best cost controlled assets for just a one year rental? And do you agree that Ainge has consistently seemed to take a long view in making deals?
 

vicirus

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Also, since it will probably come up with potential overpays on S&Ts: there’s a standard price in the league for unloading a $10-18M/year contract, and that’s a first rounder in the 20s. I would expect to see the LAC or Boston pick go as compensation for taking an overpriced Theis or Morris.
As support for this, I recently read somewhere (it’s alluding me now) that Cleveland was shopping around JR Smith’s contract and the cost was a 1st rounder. He has a unique contract in that only a few million of the $15M total is guaranteed, so a team could trade a similar salary for him and subsequently waive him to save about $12M. I could see NO asking Boston to send either the 20th or 22nd pick to Cleveland in return for them taking either Hill or Moore. Since Boston is one of the only teams that has multiple “spare” firsts, that’s another nice component of a trade they can offer that another team like LAL can’t.

Also, I know I’ve been beating this drum but if an AD trade was larger in outgoing salary, such as by making it a 3-team transaction (Hayward or Horford for KD), that would allow them to keep Smart. I believe they could also use Larkin in a S&T if I’m not mistaken as I don’t believe he signed with an NBA team last year.
 

lovegtm

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I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.

Maybe my faith is misguided given Ainge's spotty deal-making track record but I can live with the idea that he'll finally get one right this time.

In all seriousness, do you really see Boston trading one of, if not their best cost controlled assets for just a one year rental? And do you agree that Ainge has consistently seemed to take a long view in making deals?
Justise Winslow says hi. Although, to be fair, iirc there were more protections on the offered picks than was reported initially.
 

lovegtm

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As support for this, I recently read somewhere (it’s alluding me now) that Cleveland was shopping around JR Smith’s contract and the cost was a 1st rounder. He has a unique contract in that only a few million of the $15M total is guaranteed, so a team could trade a similar salary for him and subsequently waive him to save about $12M. I could see NO asking Boston to send either the 20th or 22nd pick to Cleveland in return for them taking either Hill or Moore.

Also, I know I’ve been beating this drum but if an AD trade was larger in outgoing salary, such as by making it a 3-team transaction (Hayward or Horford for KD), that would allow them to keep Smart. I believe they could also use Larkin in a S&T if I’m not mistaken as I don’t believe he signed with an NBA team last year.
There are so many ways to keep Smart that I doubt they’d add the complexity of a 3rd team simply to achieve that goal.
 

BigSoxFan

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I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.

Maybe my faith is misguided given Ainge's spotty deal-making track record but I can live with the idea that he'll finally get one right this time.

In all seriousness, do you really see Boston trading one of, if not their best cost controlled assets for just a one year rental? And do you agree that Ainge has consistently seemed to take a long view in making deals?
AD is the white whale. I think Ainge makes the gamble. The upside of AD is just so alluring. We’re talking about a younger KG level MVP talent. Losing Tatum would suck. Losing him for a 1 year player would REALLY suck. But I think you take that risk if Kyrie is fully on board.
 

mcpickl

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I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.

Maybe my faith is misguided given Ainge's spotty deal-making track record but I can live with the idea that he'll finally get one right this time.

In all seriousness, do you really see Boston trading one of, if not their best cost controlled assets for just a one year rental? And do you agree that Ainge has consistently seemed to take a long view in making deals?
HUH???????? to the bolded part.

What if as part of the trade Davis agreed to lock in his player option so the Celtics would be guaranteed two years of Davis?
 

nighthob

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I would be incredibly shocked if Ainge agrees to trade Tatum plus other pieces without some confidence that Davis will sign on for the longer term.

Maybe my faith is misguided given Ainge's spotty deal-making track record but I can live with the idea that he'll finally get one right this time.

In all seriousness, do you really see Boston trading one of, if not their best cost controlled assets for just a one year rental? And do you agree that Ainge has consistently seemed to take a long view in making deals?
Perhaps I’m not being clear, so let me address this as a two part question using the previous example of this phenomenon, Kawhi Leonard.

I think that at this point the relationship with the Pelicans is so poisoned that Davis will tell any team trading for him anything they want to hear. If you were to demand that he tell you about the time he was anal probed by an alien race from Arcturus he’ll give you all the details. But it’s still bullshit and he’s almost certainly leaving at the end of 2020 for a starring role in the Space Jam reboot.

Basically this happened last year with Kawhi, the Spurs relationship was so toxic that he was willing to say anything to escape. Toronto did trade for him, but what did they actually trade? Essentially a less than optimal contract that they wanted out from under (much like the Wiz will regard that Wall deal very soon), a high floor/low ceiling prospect, and a low first. Honestly Toronto would likely have paid that price to get out of the DeRozan contract to begin with, getting a year of Leonard was just a bonus.

There is a nigh on 100% certainty that Davis is a rental no matter what he says to get out of New Orleans. Making the public appearance in the Looney Tunes shirt with the Space Jam reboot lurking is pretty much as open a declaration of his desires as there can be. So, yeah, I hope that Tatum goes supernova and takes himself off the table, or that the LOL win the Zion Sweepstakes and trade everything for Davis.
 

cheech13

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How does the calculus on an AD trade change if the Pelicans win the lottery and draft Zion? Do they look for another young stud to pair him with (like Tatum)? Does Griffin try to sell Davis on a long-term future with him and Zion playing together? Would they consider dangling Zion in a trade to try to get another superstar to make their own big 3 with AD and Jrue? It just seems that things could change dramatically on draft night.

We've also never seen David Griffin in a true rebuilding situation. He took over the Cavs job with the idea that they were going to transition from rebuilding to competing, but that plan was thrown out the window when Lebron arrived. Most of his deals were done from the position of maximizing returns in the short term. No idea if he'd go the same route again.
 

the moops

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He is getting traded. I think there is close to zero option for him to stay.

If they win the lottery, I think BOS is in even a better position to get him - if only because nobody else has that #1 pick to trade - which may result in even a lesser package being needed
 

lovegtm

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Perhaps I’m not being clear, so let me address this as a two part question using the previous example of this phenomenon, Kawhi Leonard.

I think that at this point the relationship with the Pelicans is so poisoned that Davis will tell any team trading for him anything they want to hear. If you were to demand that he tell you about the time he was anal probed by an alien race from Arcturus he’ll give you all the details. But it’s still bullshit and he’s almost certainly leaving at the end of 2020 for a starring role in the Space Jam reboot.

Basically this happened last year with Kawhi, the Spurs relationship was so toxic that he was willing to say anything to escape. Toronto did trade for him, but what did they actually trade? Essentially a less than optimal contract that they wanted out from under (much like the Wiz will regard that Wall deal very soon), a high floor/low ceiling prospect, and a low first. Honestly Toronto would likely have paid that price to get out of the DeRozan contract to begin with, getting a year of Leonard was just a bonus.

There is a nigh on 100% certainty that Davis is a rental no matter what he says to get out of New Orleans. Making the public appearance in the Looney Tunes shirt with the Space Jam reboot lurking is pretty much as open a declaration of his desires as there can be. So, yeah, I hope that Tatum goes supernova and takes himself off the table, or that the LOL win the Zion Sweepstakes and trade everything for Davis.
This is factually inaccurate wrt to Leonard. He specifically declined to give Toronto (or Boston) any assurances about re-signing, and that’s a big reason his price was so low, and why the Celtics wouldn’t deal Jaylen for him (in addition to the injury uncertainty).
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Perhaps I’m not being clear, so let me address this as a two part question using the previous example of this phenomenon, Kawhi Leonard.

I think that at this point the relationship with the Pelicans is so poisoned that Davis will tell any team trading for him anything they want to hear. If you were to demand that he tell you about the time he was anal probed by an alien race from Arcturus he’ll give you all the details. But it’s still bullshit and he’s almost certainly leaving at the end of 2020 for a starring role in the Space Jam reboot.

Basically this happened last year with Kawhi, the Spurs relationship was so toxic that he was willing to say anything to escape. Toronto did trade for him, but what did they actually trade? Essentially a less than optimal contract that they wanted out from under (much like the Wiz will regard that Wall deal very soon), a high floor/low ceiling prospect, and a low first. Honestly Toronto would likely have paid that price to get out of the DeRozan contract to begin with, getting a year of Leonard was just a bonus.

There is a nigh on 100% certainty that Davis is a rental no matter what he says to get out of New Orleans. Making the public appearance in the Looney Tunes shirt with the Space Jam reboot lurking is pretty much as open a declaration of his desires as there can be. So, yeah, I hope that Tatum goes supernova and takes himself off the table, or that the LOL win the Zion Sweepstakes and trade everything for Davis.
So you are aware of this but Ainge isn't? Or are you, like BSF, arguing that Ainge will take the risk regardless?

The latter is plausible but I cannot see Ainge being duped here. My guess is that if he pulls the trigger he will have a very good idea about his ability to retain Davis.

And yes, mc, that was a horrible attempt at sarcasm. I think Ainge is one of the shrewdest GMs in sports. He isn't perfect but he has the track record and latitude to explore deals that few others in his role have across different sports.