'23 AL Playoff Picture

[Rovin Romine]

If, like myself, one assumed that we’d get next to nothing from Sale and Paxton this season, then on paper that rotation looks awful. We actually got more out of Sale and Paxton than I expected, and they still weren’t good enough.

It's hard to take this entirely seriously.

First off, the Sox didn't assume they wouldn't get anything out of Sale and Paxton, and they were correct.

Bello is your next pitcher up, and that seemed a reasonable bet based on his work last year.

After that, Pivetta, who had been reliable but average for the prior two years.

(So that gets you 4 -- or 3 if you want to assign a half-season pass to Sale and another to Paxton.)

For the remaining one or two spots, we had Houck, Whitlock, and Crawford. All had shown the potential to be effective starters -- none were 100% locks, sure, but they were all relatively young and under control.

Then they signed Kluber. Maybe he wasn't going to be great, but he should have been an effective 5, and given some depth to the staff.

So that's a total of 8 potential starters. Nobody was saying prior to the year that Pivetta would implode and resurge, or that Kluber was entirely toast, or that Houck and Whitlock would go down to injury.

 

[chawson]

The game is not played on paper. All of those guys came into the year with injury concerns, performance concerns, or both. It's Bloom's way of trying to piecemeal the rotation together and this is what you get. Go out and spend real money on starting pitching to put at the top of the rotation.

The game is also not played in hindsight.

Every single pitcher comes with injury concerns. Roughly one-third to one-half of last season’s top 30 IP leaders either missed significant time to injury this year (Bieber, Darvish, Wainwright, McKenzie, Ray, Quantrill, Fried, Gonzales, Marquez, Musgrove, Wright) or dramatically underperformed expectations (Alcantara, Nola, Manoah, Pérez, Bassitt, Irvin, Anderson).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The game is not played on paper. All of those guys came into the year with injury concerns, performance concerns, or both. It's Bloom's way of trying to piecemeal the rotation together and this is what you get. Go out and spend real money on starting pitching to put at the top of the rotation.

Spend real money on pitchers that aren't injury concerns, performance concerns, or both...that's the strategy?

Okay, which pitchers could they have spent money on that weren't one of those? Every pitcher is an injury and/or performance concern. It's the nature of the beast.

Here's a list of free agent pitchers from last winter who got more than Kluber did from the Sox (just to set a base line):

Carlos Rodon (6/162) - IL 3/30-6/1, 8/7-8/22
Jacob Degrom (5/185) - IL since 4/29
Kodai Senga (5/75) - healthy all year, 3.17 ERA
Taijuan Walker (4/72) - healthy all year, 4.05 ERA
Jameson Taillon (4/68) - IL 4/20-5/4, 5.62 ERA
Michael Wacha (4/26) - IL 7/4-8/15
Zach Eflin (3/40) - healthy all year, turned down a competitive offer from Sox
Chris Bassitt (3/39) - healthy all year, 4.00 ERA
Tyler Anderson (3/39) - healthy all year, 5.58 ERA
Justin Verlander (2/86.6) - IL 3/31-5/4, 40 years old, expensive as fuck
Nathan Eovaldi (2/34) - IL since 7/30
Jose Quintana (2/26) - IL 4/11-7/14
Ross Stripling (2/25) - IL 5/19-6/25 and since 8/19, 5.29 ERA
Sean Manaea (2/25) - healthy, 5.05 ERA, moved to bullpen
Andrew Heaney (2/25) - healthy all year, 4.16 ERA
Drew Smyly (2/19) - healthy all year, 5.27 ERA
Jordan Lyles (2/17) - healthy all year, 6.51 ERA
Seth Lugo (2/15) - IL 5/18-6/20
Clayton Kershaw (1/20) - IL since 7/3
Noah Syndergaard (1/13) - IL 6/8-7/24, 6.50 ERA, DFA on Monday
Mike Clevinger (1/12) - IL 5/21-6/2, 6/16-7/29, abuse investigation

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Sure, signing free agent pitching is risky. Which is why the “we have tons of money to spend this year on pitching!” strategy doesn’t guarantee anything.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Sure, signing free agent pitching is risky. Which is why the “we have tons of money to spend this year on pitching!” strategy doesn’t guarantee anything.

And you'll never see me making the argument that it does. That said, I'd be more than okay with them pursuing Yamamoto aggressively. A 25 year old phenom would be an appropriate "risk" to spend money on, as opposed to 29-30-31+ year old veterans.

 

[8slim]

It's hard to take this entirely seriously.

First off, the Sox didn't assume they wouldn't get anything out of Sale and Paxton, and they were correct.

Bello is your next pitcher up, and that seemed a reasonable bet based on his work last year.

After that, Pivetta, who had been reliable but average for the prior two years.

(So that gets you 4 -- or 3 if you want to assign a half-season pass to Sale and another to Paxton.)

For the remaining one or two spots, we had Houck, Whitlock, and Crawford. All had shown the potential to be effective starters -- none were 100% locks, sure, but they were all relatively young and under control.

Then they signed Kluber. Maybe he wasn't going to be great, but he should have been an effective 5, and given some depth to the staff.

So that's a total of 8 potential starters. Nobody was saying prior to the year that Pivetta would implode and resurge, or that Kluber was entirely toast, or that Houck and Whitlock would go down to injury.

As always I appreciate your dismissiveness.

There was a lot of virtual ink spilled on this very board heading into the season about how the rotation looked poor.

And yes, a rotation anchored by a guy who’s got 57 innings to his career, surrounded by several younger guys who’ve never made it through even half a season as starters, and a couple reclamation projects, certainly could be awful.

Thankfully they’ve been better than awful.

 

[JM3]

Spend real money on pitchers that aren't injury concerns, performance concerns, or both...that's the strategy?

Okay, which pitchers could they have spent money on that weren't one of those? Every pitcher is an injury and/or performance concern. It's the nature of the beast.

Here's a list of free agent pitchers from last winter who got more than Kluber did from the Sox (just to set a base line):

Carlos Rodon (6/162) - IL 3/30-6/1, 8/7-8/22
Jacob Degrom (5/185) - IL since 4/29
Kodai Senga (5/75) - healthy all year, 3.17 ERA
Taijuan Walker (4/72) - healthy all year, 4.05 ERA
Jameson Taillon (4/68) - IL 4/20-5/4, 5.62 ERA
Michael Wacha (4/26) - IL 7/4-8/15
Zach Eflin (3/40) - healthy all year, turned down a competitive offer from Sox
Chris Bassitt (3/39) - healthy all year, 4.00 ERA
Tyler Anderson (3/39) - healthy all year, 5.58 ERA
Justin Verlander (2/86.6) - IL 3/31-5/4, 40 years old, expensive as fuck
Nathan Eovaldi (2/34) - IL since 7/30
Jose Quintana (2/26) - IL 4/11-7/14
Ross Stripling (2/25) - IL 5/19-6/25 and since 8/19, 5.29 ERA
Sean Manaea (2/25) - healthy, 5.05 ERA, moved to bullpen
Andrew Heaney (2/25) - healthy all year, 4.16 ERA
Drew Smyly (2/19) - healthy all year, 5.27 ERA
Jordan Lyles (2/17) - healthy all year, 6.51 ERA
Seth Lugo (2/15) - IL 5/18-6/20
Clayton Kershaw (1/20) - IL since 7/3
Noah Syndergaard (1/13) - IL 6/8-7/24, 6.50 ERA, DFA on Monday
Mike Clevinger (1/12) - IL 5/21-6/2, 6/16-7/29, abuse investigation

Good post. Not spending a bit more to close Eflin was unfortunate, but understandable.

Also, pretty sure Bassitt got 3/$63m.

 

[8slim]

Spend real money on pitchers that aren't injury concerns, performance concerns, or both...that's the strategy?

Okay, which pitchers could they have spent money on that weren't one of those? Every pitcher is an injury and/or performance concern. It's the nature of the beast.

Here's a list of free agent pitchers from last winter who got more than Kluber did from the Sox (just to set a base line):

Carlos Rodon (6/162) - IL 3/30-6/1, 8/7-8/22
Jacob Degrom (5/185) - IL since 4/29
Kodai Senga (5/75) - healthy all year, 3.17 ERA
Taijuan Walker (4/72) - healthy all year, 4.05 ERA
Jameson Taillon (4/68) - IL 4/20-5/4, 5.62 ERA
Michael Wacha (4/26) - IL 7/4-8/15
Zach Eflin (3/40) - healthy all year, turned down a competitive offer from Sox
Chris Bassitt (3/39) - healthy all year, 4.00 ERA
Tyler Anderson (3/39) - healthy all year, 5.58 ERA
Justin Verlander (2/86.6) - IL 3/31-5/4, 40 years old, expensive as fuck
Nathan Eovaldi (2/34) - IL since 7/30
Jose Quintana (2/26) - IL 4/11-7/14
Ross Stripling (2/25) - IL 5/19-6/25 and since 8/19, 5.29 ERA
Sean Manaea (2/25) - healthy, 5.05 ERA, moved to bullpen
Andrew Heaney (2/25) - healthy all year, 4.16 ERA
Drew Smyly (2/19) - healthy all year, 5.27 ERA
Jordan Lyles (2/17) - healthy all year, 6.51 ERA
Seth Lugo (2/15) - IL 5/18-6/20
Clayton Kershaw (1/20) - IL since 7/3
Noah Syndergaard (1/13) - IL 6/8-7/24, 6.50 ERA, DFA on Monday
Mike Clevinger (1/12) - IL 5/21-6/2, 6/16-7/29, abuse investigation

Yep, every SP can get hurt. Most spend at least a little time on the injured list every season. Pitchers you sign, pitchers you trade for, and pitchers you bring up through your system.

Which is why I get nutty with this stuff because it literally is the GMs job to build a good rotation knowing this dynamic exists. Bloom did not do that this season. He just didn’t.

It’s not a capital crime, he gets another crack at it for 2024.

But it baffles me that people seemingly like to claim that there was just nothing he could have done better. Nothing at all. He’s just a feather on the winds of fate, like Forest Gump.

 

[Rovin Romine]

As always I appreciate your dismissiveness.

There was a lot of virtual ink spilled on this very board heading into the season about how the rotation looked poor.

And yes, a rotation anchored by a guy who’s got 57 innings to his career, surrounded by several younger guys who’ve never made it through even half a season as starters, and a couple reclamation projects, certainly could be awful.

Thankfully they’ve been better than awful.

How is it dismissive? I can't remember anyone saying there wasn't doubt and volatility there.

 

[8slim]

How is it dismissive? I can't remember anyone saying there wasn't doubt and volatility there.

“It’s hard to take this entirely seriously”.

 

[Rovin Romine]

“It’s hard to take this entirely seriously”.

Fine Slim - "I don't entirely agree with your premise."

 

[dhappy42]

It’s over and it really wasn’t that close. And I’m really getting sick of the injury line tossed around here. From last year to this year I continue to hear that injuries sunk this team. It’s a lame excuse to keep repeating. This team was built to be competitive (it was) and make the playoffs if everything worked out just right (it didn’t). But the line was razor thin, so when injuries struck we just couldn’t compete.

Injuries hit all teams. Our team just wasn’t constructed of enough difference makers to offset the injuries.

While I like a lot of the team, we have too many marginal players and our “superstars” are not good enough (or plentiful enough) to bridge the gap.

Who are our “superstars?”

 

[jteders1]

I’m starting to wonder if results matter on this board. A lot of ”it made sense at the time” and “it looked good on paper”, and “it’s a defensible move” regarding the moves under the current management group after they haven’t worked out. Maybe we’re just unlucky and our injuries just hit at the wrong time, but that’s a pretty rough pill to swallow when the only ”successful“ season for the last four years is the year where the team way out performed the phytag. Results matter and 3 of the the 4 years we’ve been average to bad.

 

[YTF]

I’m starting to wonder if results matter on this board. A lot of ”it made sense at the time” and “it looked good on paper”, and “it’s a defensible move” regarding the moves under the current management group after they haven’t worked out. Maybe we’re just unlucky and our injuries just hit at the wrong time, but that’s a pretty rough pill to swallow when the only ”successful“ season for the last four years is the year where the team way out performed the phytag. Results matter and 3 of the the 4 years we’ve been average to bad.

Of course results matter and so do the reasons for those results. Injuries play a part in that, so does playing fundamentally bad baseball, poor coaching, roster construction and a variety of other things that are discussed here daily.

 

[8slim]

I’m starting to wonder if results matter on this board. A lot of ”it made sense at the time” and “it looked good on paper”, and “it’s a defensible move” regarding the moves under the current management group after they haven’t worked out. Maybe we’re just unlucky and our injuries just hit at the wrong time, but that’s a pretty rough pill to swallow when the only ”successful“ season for the last four years is the year where the team way out performed the phytag. Results matter and 3 of the the 4 years we’ve been average to bad.

SOSH has a long history of being more supportive of GMs, managers and superstar players than Joe Fan. We’re a group that considers ourselves smarter than the average bear, and Boston historically has media that take great joy in trashing said GMs, managers and superstar players. So we’re a reaction to that “conventional wisdom”.

It’s not a bad thing. It makes for far more interesting discussions than pile ons about how much Bloom sucks.

But it does lead to some post-result rationalizations.

One thing about that which always bothers me is when folks suggest that a players results on a different team, and in a different circumstance, would have happened here as well. “Pitcher X was on the IR for 3 weeks in KC, and he only has a 4.20 ERA, so it’s good Bloom didn’t sign him” kinda stuff.

I’m a big believer that outcomes are heavily dependent on circumstance and context. Maybe a pitcher doing great somewhere else would have been awful here. And maybe one scuffling somewhere else would have been a good fit here. I just dislike using that as rationale for not signing a guy months ago.

Occasionally we can see that someone is simply toast, regardless of circumstance or context. But that’s more of a rarity IMHO.

 

[jteders1]

SOSH has a long history of being more supportive of GMs, managers and superstar players than Joe Fan. We’re a group that considers ourselves smarter than the average bear, and Boston historically has media that take great joy in trashing said GMs, managers and superstar players. So we’re a reaction to that “conventional wisdom”.

It’s not a bad thing. It makes for far more interesting discussions than pile ons about how much Bloom sucks.

But it does lead to some post-result rationalizations.

One thing about that which always bothers me is when folks suggest that a players results on a different team, and in a different circumstance, would have happened here as well. “Pitcher X was on the IR for 3 weeks in KC, and he only has a 4.20 ERA, so it’s good Bloom didn’t sign him” kinda stuff.

I’m a big believer that outcomes are heavily dependent on circumstance and context. Maybe a pitcher doing great somewhere else would have been awful here. And maybe one scuffling somewhere else would have been a good fit here. I just dislike using that as rationale for not signing a guy months ago.

Occasionally we can see that someone is simply toast, regardless of circumstance or context. But that’s more of a rarity IMHO.

I’m not sure I agree with your first paragraph. I’ve been lurking on this board a long time, and both Cherrington and DD were pretty routinely hammered by members of this board, and this was when they had a more impressive resume than the current leadership. Also, I deliberately put “management” instead of GM because I’m confident that the decisions over the last four years have been a group effort which includes ownership. You don’t trade Mookie Betts unless the guy signing your checks is ok with it.

It feels like the reason for the support of this management team is because SOSH is known for falling in love with prospects and love home grown talent. We currently have an organization where we have exciting rookies, and a strong mL system. That is what I believe has led to more of a leash and defense of the current plan. BTW, this is not necessarily incorrect thinking. There’s no question that great improvement has been made with the system, but I have major concerns about the current leaderships ability to build at the big league level. If you look at their trades and acquisitions it’s left a lot to be desired. If I was running the show, we’d be making changes, but I’m not and if they stick with the status quo, I won’t be upset, there’s an argument for it.

 

[simplicio]

1. Our injuries the last two years, especially in terms of pitching, have in fact been both quite bad and also clustered so we're doing things like running a 3 man rotation for a month and having 10 different shortstops in a season.
2. We definitely did overperform in 2021, and it was super fun. We have also overperformed in parts of this season, which has made the underperforming parts far more frustrating.
3. Results matter, but most people here understand that these Bloom teams are designed to perform on the cusp of postseason viability while the next core develops in the minors, through short term and junk acquisitions rather than major long term commitments. Notably, Bloom has protected minor league assets rather than trading them for big MLB names.

I think most of us expect these strategies to begin shifting in the next 1-2 years as the minor league development begins to pay dividends for the first time in Bloom's tenure.

I’m starting to wonder if results matter on this board. A lot of ”it made sense at the time” and “it looked good on paper”, and “it’s a defensible move” regarding the moves under the current management group after they haven’t worked out. Maybe we’re just unlucky and our injuries just hit at the wrong time, but that’s a pretty rough pill to swallow when the only ”successful“ season for the last four years is the year where the team way out performed the phytag. Results matter and 3 of the the 4 years we’ve been average to bad.

 

[jteders1]

1. Our injuries the last two years, especially in terms of pitching, have in fact been both quite bad and also clustered so we're doing things like running a 3 man rotation for a month and having 10 different shortstops in a season.
2. We definitely did overperform in 2021, and it was super fun. We have also overperformed in parts of this season, which has made the underperforming parts far more frustrating.
3. Results matter, but most people here understand that these Bloom teams are designed to perform on the cusp of postseason viability while the next core develops in the minors, through short term and junk acquisitions rather than major long term commitments. Notably, Bloom has protected minor league assets rather than trading them for big MLB names.

I think most of us expect these strategies to begin shifting in the next 1-2 years as the minor league development begins to pay dividends for the first time in Bloom's tenure.

As I said above, I understand the strategy and it’s certainly worthy of sticking with if you believe that we can take the young core and pair them with free agents to make a complete team. I’m dubious, especially when we are staring down the barrel of more pitching issues.

 

[scottyno]

Considering that they have 1 pitcher who can get past the 5th inning right now, and even the ones that aren't getting to the 5th aren't pitching that great, Bloom would have had to add 2 or 3 starters for them to compete, and that was never going to happen. They could have added 1, but it wouldn't have really helped.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If they added Lance Lynn, and he pitched like he has for LA, and had Houck in the pen instead of the last man out there, it theoretically could have made a difference, but not 7 games worth. So yeah, they are likely to miss the playoffs by such a large margin that inaction can certainly be defended. Of course, if they are a few games closer a few games ago, maybe things go differently? Only one season is played, so impossible to know.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Spend real money on pitchers that aren't injury concerns, performance concerns, or both...that's the strategy?

Okay, which pitchers could they have spent money on that weren't one of those? Every pitcher is an injury and/or performance concern. It's the nature of the beast.

Here's a list of free agent pitchers from last winter who got more than Kluber did from the Sox (just to set a base line):

Carlos Rodon (6/162) - IL 3/30-6/1, 8/7-8/22
Jacob Degrom (5/185) - IL since 4/29
Kodai Senga (5/75) - healthy all year, 3.17 ERA
Taijuan Walker (4/72) - healthy all year, 4.05 ERA
Jameson Taillon (4/68) - IL 4/20-5/4, 5.62 ERA
Michael Wacha (4/26) - IL 7/4-8/15
Zach Eflin (3/40) - healthy all year, turned down a competitive offer from Sox
Chris Bassitt (3/39) - healthy all year, 4.00 ERA
Tyler Anderson (3/39) - healthy all year, 5.58 ERA
Justin Verlander (2/86.6) - IL 3/31-5/4, 40 years old, expensive as fuck
Nathan Eovaldi (2/34) - IL since 7/30
Jose Quintana (2/26) - IL 4/11-7/14
Ross Stripling (2/25) - IL 5/19-6/25 and since 8/19, 5.29 ERA
Sean Manaea (2/25) - healthy, 5.05 ERA, moved to bullpen
Andrew Heaney (2/25) - healthy all year, 4.16 ERA
Drew Smyly (2/19) - healthy all year, 5.27 ERA
Jordan Lyles (2/17) - healthy all year, 6.51 ERA
Seth Lugo (2/15) - IL 5/18-6/20
Clayton Kershaw (1/20) - IL since 7/3
Noah Syndergaard (1/13) - IL 6/8-7/24, 6.50 ERA, DFA on Monday
Mike Clevinger (1/12) - IL 5/21-6/2, 6/16-7/29, abuse investigation

Of course pitchers have injury risk and no one is immune from that. No pitcher is perfect. So does that mean you don’t try to go out and spend for top of the rotation type of talent? It sounds like you’re ok with going after the Corey Kluber’s of the world and hope they work out. This is the situation you’ll find the team in. They suck at developing pitching so they have to go pay for it.

 

[Fishy1]

Of course pitchers have injury risk and no one is immune from that. No pitcher is perfect. So does that mean you don’t try to go out and spend for top of the rotation type of talent? It sounds like you’re ok with going after the Corey Kluber’s of the world and hope they work out. This is the situation you’ll find the team in. They suck at developing pitching so they have to go pay for it.

That's the thing, we did go out and spend on top of the rotation talent several years ago. They resigned Chris Sale, who was incredibly durable for most of his young career, until suddenly he wasn't. People rage against that deal and then want the Sox to go out and do it again.

The hope was that he would bounce back over the last couple years of his contract. Not only has that not happened, but the Kluber signing promptly blew up in their faces, and Whitlock got hurt again and Houck got hit in the face with a line drive. Paxton has been basically himself, and Bello and Crawford, who are homegrown, have been solid. I'm happy they took a short gamble rather than signing on for Rodon, who's contract would've crippled them.

If you don't want to have to deal with the occasional mediocre team, then rebuilding might not be for you.

 

[tims4wins]

That's the thing, we did go out and spend on top of the rotation talent several years ago. They resigned Chris Sale, who was incredibly durable for most of his young career, until suddenly he wasn't. People rage against that deal and then want the Sox to go out and do it again.

The hope was that he would bounce back over the last couple years of his contract. Not only has that not happened, but the Kluber signing promptly blew up in their faces, and Whitlock got hurt again and Houck got hit in the face with a line drive. Paxton has been basically himself, and Bello and Crawford, who are homegrown, have been solid. I'm happy they took a short gamble rather than signing on for Rodon, who's contract would've crippled them.

If you don't want to have to deal with the occasional mediocre team, then rebuilding might not be for you.

People rage against the Sale deal because it was done a year before it was necessary when he was already showing signs of wearing down.

 

[Fishy1]

People rage against the Sale deal because it was done a year before it was necessary when he was already showing signs of wearing down.

That's totally fair. I'm just coming from a place where I think big contracts for elite starting pitchers is a bad move because you're almost always paying for their declining years.

 

[RedOctober3829]

That's the thing, we did go out and spend on top of the rotation talent several years ago. They resigned Chris Sale, who was incredibly durable for most of his young career, until suddenly he wasn't. People rage against that deal and then want the Sox to go out and do it again.

The hope was that he would bounce back over the last couple years of his contract. Not only has that not happened, but the Kluber signing promptly blew up in their faces, and Whitlock got hurt again and Houck got hit in the face with a line drive. Paxton has been basically himself, and Bello and Crawford, who are homegrown, have been solid. I'm happy they took a short gamble rather than signing on for Rodon, who's contract would've crippled them.

If you don't want to have to deal with the occasional mediocre team, then rebuilding might not be for you.

They’ve been mediocre to bad since 2019. How many more is acceptable?

The problem is they don’t have top of the rotation talent coming up in the minors so they have to either sign or trade for it.

 

[scottyno]

They’ve been mediocre to bad since 2019. How many more is acceptable?

The problem is they don’t have top of the rotation talent coming up in the minors so they have to either sign or trade for it.

They don't have it coming up because it's already on the roster

 

[chawson]

They’ve been mediocre to bad since 2019. How many more is acceptable?

The problem is they don’t have top of the rotation talent coming up in the minors so they have to either sign or trade for it.

They had MLB’s 7th-best record in 2021, while playing in the sport’s toughest division.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

They had MLB’s 7th-best record in 2021, while playing in the sport’s toughest division.

There’s been two years since then, though. 15th best record this year, tied for 17th best last year.

 

[The_Dali]

Who are our “superstars?”

Exactly. We kinda don’t have any.

Devers is really, really good, but not a superstar. Sale was a superstar 4 years ago. Then we have… we’ll, that’s it.

 

[8slim]

That's totally fair. I'm just coming from a place where I think big contracts for elite starting pitchers is a bad move because you're almost always paying for their declining years.

And that’s a fine perspective. Then we could trade minor league assets for younger established starters if and when the opportunity presents itself.

Either way we gotta do something. The rotation is gonna be garbage next season if we don’t.

 

[8slim]

They don't have it coming up because it's already on the roster

We need more than Bello. A lot more.

 

[The_Dali]

They had MLB’s 7th-best record in 2021, while playing in the sport’s toughest division.

Yay! 7th best!

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yay! 7th best!

Red Sox winning % rank


2013: 1
2014: 25
2015: 19
2016: 5
2017: 5
2018: 1
2019: 14
2020: 27
2021: 7
2022: 17
2023: 15

 

[The_Dali]

I’m not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me.

Generally, I don’t think we should be excited about bring the 7th best.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I’m not sure if you are agreeing or disagreeing with me.

Generally, I don’t think we should be excited about bring the 7th best.

Definitely agreeing! The last four years have the Sox as between the 7th - 27th best team in baseball, an average of 16.5 which is pretty much the definition of mediocre.

 

[scottyno]

We need more than Bello. A lot more.

How many teams have "a lot more" young cost controlled pitching than Bello, Whitlock, Houck , and Crawford?

 

[jbupstate]

Eflin signing with the Sox would have been a difference maker. I watched a little of the TBR game and I believe I heard he’s pitched in to the 6th inning 17 times. The Sox wanted him, offered a very competitive contract but he stayed close to home. But Eflin in the 2nd (or 3rd) tier type of SP you spend on hoping for durability and some improvement. This SP3 is the type of pitcher I hope Bloom can identify and slightly overpay to bring to Boston. Everyone needs a number 1 and developing is the way to go…

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

How many teams have "a lot more" young cost controlled pitching than Bello, Whitlock, Houck , and Crawford?

Are we still pretending the latter three are actually starting pitchers? They are all useful and have some potential but don’t exactly look like the cornerstone of the next great Red Sox rotation, especially since they will each be in their age 28 season next year.

I mean, if you think the rotation is all set with those guys, more power to you. Didn’t exactly work out this year.

 

[RedOctober3829]

They don't have it coming up because it's already on the roster

It’s already on the roster? There’s one pitcher, Bello, who can be considered a high quality homegrown starter.

 

[RedOctober3829]

They had MLB’s 7th-best record in 2021, while playing in the sport’s toughest division.

Which year since 2019 is the outlier?

 

[jteders1]

Houck, Crawford and Whitlock are JAG’s as starters. If we were carrying one as a 5th starter, then that would be fine, but to carry all of them in the rotation would be a big mistake. There is very little evidence that these guys are going to take another step to being consistent middle of the rotation starters, and as noted above, these guys are in their late 20’s, they are what they are.

 

[8slim]

How many teams have "a lot more" young cost controlled pitching than Bello, Whitlock, Houck , and Crawford?

Three of those guys aren’t very good.

We do want good starters, right?

 

[8slim]

This is why some people get the feeling some others care more about assets, and cost control, and farm rankings, and all that GM stuff than actually winning baseball games.

We’re not going to win many baseball games in 2024 if we have Crawford, Houck and Whitlock all in the starting rotation.

 

[scottyno]

It’s already on the roster? There’s one pitcher, Bello, who can be considered a high quality homegrown starter.

Great, how many teams have more than 1 young high quality home grown starter? They have 1 great cost controlled guy and a couple decent ones.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

I think most of us expect these strategies to begin shifting in the next 1-2 years as the minor league development begins to pay dividends for the first time in Bloom's tenure.

Their top prospect is hitting .189 in AA. They don’t have one pitching prospect on anyone’s Top 100 list. When is the minor league development going to begin to pay dividends? 2030?

 

[bosockboy]

Houck needs to settle in as a Jeff Nelson-esque middle relief ace of 2-3 2 inning outings a week. He’s made for it.

 

[soxhop411]

Houck, Crawford and Whitlock are JAG’s as starters. If we were carrying one as a 5th starter, then that would be fine, but to carry all of them in the rotation would be a big mistake. There is very little evidence that these guys are going to take another step to being consistent middle of the rotation starters, and as noted above, these guys are in their late 20’s, they are what they are.

Three of those guys aren’t very good.

We do want good starters, right?

You mean like how many people here were ready to just give Duran away last offseason for pennies on the dollar because of how how his season ended last year?

or how Josh Winckowski ended last season with a 5+ era and everyone was ready to run him out of town?



Do I even need to mention the vitriol spewed about Conor Wong after last season?


people here seem to be extremely impatient and want instant gratification.

some players take a season or two before they start showing you who they are.

 

[simplicio]

Their top prospect is hitting .189 in AA. They don’t have one pitching prospect on anyone’s Top 100 list. When is the minor league development going to begin to pay dividends? 2030?

Yes their top prospect had such a terrible 2 months in AA that he dropped all the way to the #11 (mlb) or #11 (bowden) or #3 (law) or #9 (Fangraphs) or #9 (bleacher report) overall spot in baseball, probably because batting average is the true measure of a prospect.

 

[8slim]

You mean like how many people here were ready to just give Duran away last offseason for pennies on the dollar because of how how his season ended last year?

or how Josh Winckowski ended last season with a 5+ era and everyone was ready to run him out of town?



Do I even need to mention the vitriol spewed about Conor Wong after last season?


people here seem to be extremely impatient and want instant gratification.

some players take a season or two before they start showing you who they are.

Instant gratification? Houck is 27 and in his 4th year here. Whitlock is 27 and in his 3rd. Both of them have shown the ability to be good relievers. And both have been largely mediocre as starters.

Maybe one of them will finally become a reliable, good starter. In their 5th and 4th year respectively. That would be delayed gratification.

 

[JM3]

In Houck's career as a starter he has a 3.99 ERA & 3.63 xFIP (as a reliever it's 2.68 & 3.58).

He turned 27 two months ago.

What about Houck's career indicates that he would need to improve a lot to be a useful starter?