'23 AL Playoff Picture

chrisfont9 · Aug 2, 2023

How do the Jays have a vastly better chance than the Sox? Our run differential is better than theirs. Luck owes us two wins, and that's before we get guys back. I guess these are dull tools used to calculate odds based solely on what already happened, but it's kinda trash.

grimshaw · Aug 2, 2023

Looking at remaining schedules for contenders as well as injuries and additions, here is how I see it:

Rangers - 93 wins
Astros - 91 wins and 2nd WC
Sox - 89 wins and 3rd WC
Jays - 88 wins
Yankees - 85 wins
Angels - 83 wins
Mariners - 83 wins

-The Mariners have 23 games remaining against elite (.565 and up) winning percentage teams, 2nd most vs the Sox (25). Everyone else got better in their division and they dealt their closer.

-The Angels made a few small improvements to keep them interesting, but also just lost Griffin Canning. Mike Trout still has a few weeks minimum. I see them ending up with the same record as the Mariners.

-The Yankees have the fewest remaining games against teams above .500 than the other contenders and are getting Cortes back. That and Judge having returned helps, but the offense isn't good enough to make up the gap IMO.

-I think the Jays were slight favorites until Bichette got hurt - though his status is still tbd. They have the 2nd fewest remaining games against teams over .500 and did a few band aid moves and have Ryu coming back.

-The Sox have a rough end of the season schedule but are substituting Chang, Jacques, Llovera and Bleier(?) with Story, Whitlock, Sale and Houck. No other team upgraded in 4 different roster spots (potentially 5 with Urias). The trickle down effect is more spread out innings and better matchups.

-The Astros pulled off their usual magic, but the Rangers did even more. They both have roughly the same strength of schedule remaining, but I like the Rangers moves better.

Red(s)HawksFan · Aug 2, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
How do the Jays have a vastly better chance than the Sox? Our run differential is better than theirs. Luck owes us two wins, and that's before we get guys back. I guess these are dull tools used to calculate odds based solely on what already happened, but it's kinda trash.

I think the first reason their odds are better right now is that they are ahead in the standings. They're in a playoff spot right now. Also, the collective win percentage of their remaining opponents is lower than the Red Sox (.509 for the Sox, .502 for the Jays).

My guess is that if the Sox were to sweep the Jays this weekend and find themselves tied or even ahead, the playoff odds would probably flip or nearly so. Regardless, the gap will narrow if the Sox keep up the pace they've had since the start of July.

Archer1979 · Aug 2, 2023

JM3 said:
Here is Fangraphs' general methodology for playoff projection:

& for this particular projection:

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/about

Rightly or wrongly, the bottom line is that they project the Blue Jays to be a better team.

Solely using what they've done so far, they have the Red Sox at 40% to make the playoffs & the Blue Jays at 52.2%.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Thanks for this. The 20K game simulation is interesting depending upon what they are projecting for the Sox roster. I suspect that they are anticipating that the Sox are stuck with the two out of five Bullpen Games scenario for the rest of the season. After August 18th, which should be a point where the Sox get Sale, Whitlock, Houck, and Story back, the Sox have only six games against sub.500 games. The next two weeks is the time to fatten up on the sub-standard competition.

Ale Xander · Aug 2, 2023

Royals, Tigers, Nats, BJ's without Bich, seems we have a chance to move up!

Then again, remember the Pirates/Cardinals fiascos

Post-Labor Day will be a challenge.

YTF · Aug 2, 2023

Ale Xander said:
Royals, Tigers, Nats, BJ's without Bich, seems we have a chance to move up!

Then again, remember the Pirates/Cardinals fiascos

Post-Labor Day will be a challenge.

No structural damage, Bichette is listed DTD ATM. I imagine he'll probably get another couple of games to see how the knee is responding, it would be nice if the Jays air on the side of caution and rest him through the weekend.

Yelling At Clouds · Aug 2, 2023

Jays get consecutive series against the Nats, Rockies, As, and Royals to end August and begin September, but they finish with Texas, Boston, Tampa (twice), and the Yankees (twice). Here's their August, if you're curious.

The_Dali · Aug 2, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
How do the Jays have a vastly better chance than the Sox? Our run differential is better than theirs. Luck owes us two wins, and that's before we get guys back. I guess these are dull tools used to calculate odds based solely on what already happened, but it's kinda trash.

Agree! But I think it’s based on the projections for the teams, which has been heavily in favor for the jays since the beginning of the season.

As Rodney used to say, I can’t get no respect”.

chrisfont9 · Aug 2, 2023

Thanks all. I suppose it’s reasonable to look at the Jays’ individual talent and call it underperformance, even if they’ve compensated by nabbing a couple wins over their expected record.

Yelling At Clouds · Aug 2, 2023

Rays' August is a mixed bag, but September looks tough for them - depending on your feelings on the Guards, every team they'll face in September has playoff aspirations at the moment.

Someone else can do the rest of the teams.

RS2004foreever · Aug 2, 2023

In theory no team will improve their Roster from July to mid-August more than the Red Sox (Houck/Sale/Whitlock/Story).
I suspect Fangraphs does not predict any of those players return.

DeadlySplitter · Aug 2, 2023

Red Sox are now 2/3rds through their season, on pace for 85.5 wins.

If they can finally crush the bottom feeders still on their schedule (7(!) KC, 3 DET, 3 WAS, 3 CWS, *maybe* 7 NYY), while holding their own against the two remaining TOR & HOU series, they'll have a shot.

If it comes down to the final weekend, 4 @BAL will probably be tough even if they've clinched.

I'm also worried about only one day off the next four weeks after tomorrow, given the rotation is one more (re)injury away from being entirely frayed.

j-man · Aug 2, 2023

i had boston last in the AL east 3 days ago but other than cole judge the yankees look like a aaa team here how i see it

1 hou 96-66
2 AL East Champ Balt/tb 93-69
3 minn 83-79
4 tex 94-68
5 tb/balt 91-71

so we have 5 teams for 1 spot
6 BOS/TOR 88-74
8 NYY 85-77
9 SEA 84-78
10 LAA 82-80

and assiumeing boston gets the 6 spot they have a great shot to beat MINN in the best/of 3

Ale Xander · Aug 2, 2023

j-man said:
i had boston last in the AL east 3 days ago but other than cole judge the yankees look like a aaa team here how i see it

1 hou 96-66
2 AL East Champ Balt/tb 93-69
3 minn 83-79
4 tex 94-68
5 tb/balt 91-71

so we have 5 teams for 1 spot
6 BOS/TOR 88-74
8 NYY 85-77
9 SEA 84-78
10 LAA 82-80

and assiumeing boston gets the 6 spot they have a great shot to beat MINN in the best/of 3

Given a choice today to take this or not, I will absolutely take it And no playoff game 163 this year, just head to head? And then the Twinkies? Sign me up.

Merkle's Boner · Aug 3, 2023

Sox really need 2 of 3 this weekend. And then go on a tear against KC, Detroit and Washington.

tims4wins · Aug 4, 2023

Merkle's Boner said:
Sox really need 2 of 3 this weekend. And then go on a tear against KC, Detroit and Washington.

Yeah 1 back vs. 3 back coming out of this weekend feels like a huge difference.

LynnRice75 · Aug 4, 2023

tims4wins said:
Yeah 1 back vs. 3 back coming out of this weekend feels like a huge difference.

1 ahead rather than 5 back is even more enticing.
Go for the sweep.

Niastri · Aug 4, 2023

LynnRice75 said:
1 ahead rather than 5 back is even more enticing.
Go for the sweep.

Somebody called a random west coast game the most important game of the season... It isn't at all ridiculous to say this upcoming series against the Blue Jays is the most important series of the season for us.

If we get swept, the season is virtually over, no other series matters. If we sweep, we become favorites to win the third wild card. (at least...)

And all results in between.

If we perform well enough, perhaps later series matter more, but this one determines if we continue to play for real, or just run out the stretch.

LogansDad · Aug 4, 2023

Niastri said:
Somebody called a random west coast game the most important game of the season... It isn't at all ridiculous to say this upcoming series against the Blue Jays is the most important series of the season for us.

If we get swept, the season is virtually over, no other series matters. If we sweep, we become favorites to win the third wild card. (at least...)

And all results in between.

If we perform well enough, perhaps later series matter more, but this one determines if we continue to play for real, or just run out the stretch.

I don't even think getting swept "ends the season" or anything like that, but it would be really bad, for sure.

The random west coast game you are talking about was the game against the Giants, right? I remember that comment (and I think I responded), but the game 3 loss to the Mariners looms really, really big to me right now, especially after their comeback last night. They feel like a team that could really go on a roll these last two months to me, and blowing a late 3 run lead to them leaves a bad taste in my mouth, even though they are my 2nd favorite team.

chrisfont9 · Aug 4, 2023

LogansDad said:
I don't even think getting swept "ends the season" or anything like that, but it would be really bad, for sure.

The random west coast game you are talking about was the game against the Giants, right? I remember that comment (and I think I responded), but the game 3 loss to the Mariners looms really, really big to me right now, especially after their comeback last night. They feel like a team that could really go on a roll these last two months to me, and blowing a late 3 run lead to them leaves a bad taste in my mouth, even though they are my 2nd favorite team.

Well they are 10-4 in their latest run starting July 20. They have quite a schedule coming up, with several series vs the Royals, As and newly-tanked White Sox and Mets. If they are going to do this can they please take out the Angels in the process, and maybe knock the Rangers or Astros down a peg? I live in Seattle so I can live with the Ms going hog-wild.

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud · Aug 4, 2023

Niastri said:
Somebody called a random west coast game the most important game of the season... It isn't at all ridiculous to say this upcoming series against the Blue Jays is the most important series of the season for us.

If we get swept, the season is virtually over, no other series matters. If we sweep, we become favorites to win the third wild card. (at least...)

And all results in between.

If we perform well enough, perhaps later series matter more, but this one determines if we continue to play for real, or just run out the stretch.

It wasn't the biggest game of the season, but the third game against the Mariners was not "random" but damn important. It makes Cora's lack of urgency that day even more infuriating. The Mariners are direct competition. That should have been a balls to the wall, all hands on deck game to win and instead he screwed around with the bullpen.

LogansDad · Aug 4, 2023

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud said:
It wasn't the biggest game of the season, but the third game against the Mariners was not "random" but damn important. It makes Cora's lack of urgency that day even more infuriating. The Mariners are direct competition. That should have been a balls to the wall, all hands on deck game to win and instead he screwed around with the bullpen.

Yeah, the quote he is referencing was from one of the two (I think the first) loss against San Francisco. I agree that game 3 loss to Seattle was a disaster, though.

LogansDad · Aug 11, 2023

Sadly, Seattle hasn't lost since Cora left Schrieber in for a second ineffective inning last Wednesday. Might have a better shot of catching the Rays than the Mariners with the way they are playing right now.

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Aug 11, 2023

LogansDad said:
Sadly, Seattle hasn't lost since Cora left Schrieber in for a second ineffective inning last Wednesday. Might have a better shot of catching the Rays than the Mariners with the way they are playing right now.

Don't worry about it. The Sox just have to keep winning. If they do that, they'll pass someone.

LogansDad · Aug 11, 2023

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
Don't worry about it. The Sox just have to keep winning. If they do that, they'll pass someone.

Right. It's too early to truly be scoreboard watching yet, but the Sox have to pass two someones.

Van Everyman · Aug 11, 2023

JM3 said:
Apparently selling at the deadline remoralized their team.

Don’t be so moralizistic.

LogansDad · Aug 11, 2023

JM3 said:
Apparently selling at the deadline remoralized their team.

Ha. As good as the Sox were in July, the Mariners have the best record in the league since July 1st. I think they are a better all around team than either Toronto or Houston, and with Tampa being a walking medical clinic, maybe them, too.

You guys are aware that I have really enjoyed this Red Sox team this year, and was one of the few who was all aboard from the start of the season, but that loss last Wednesday (to a team I simply love, even), was the first time I have been actually furious after a loss. There was no way Schreiber should have been out there for that second inning of work.

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud · Aug 12, 2023

LogansDad said:
Ha. As good as the Sox were in July, the Mariners have the best record in the league since July 1st. I think they are a better all around team than either Toronto or Houston, and with Tampa being a walking medical clinic, maybe them, too.

You guys are aware that I have really enjoyed this Red Sox team this year, and was one of the few who was all aboard from the start of the season, but that loss last Wednesday (to a team I simply love, even), was the first time I have been actually furious after a loss. There was no way Schreiber should have been out there for that second inning of work.

I agree, that was an enormous loss. Note that Cora DID go with the Big Four two days in a row against KC. It's mystifying how Seattle wasn't urgent yet KC was.

bosockboy · Aug 12, 2023

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud said:
I agree, that was an enormous loss. Note that Cora DID go with the Big Four two days in a row against KC. It's mystifying how Seattle wasn't urgent yet KC was.

Well the Seattle and Toronto losses made KC urgent.

E5 Yaz · Aug 12, 2023

KC was urgent, regardless. With so many teams bunched together and the toughest run of the remaining schedule coming up, winning 3 of 4 against a truly bad team was a record-building necessity, no matter what they had done against Toronto and Seattle

bosockboy · Aug 12, 2023

E5 Yaz said:
KC was urgent, regardless. With so many teams bunched together and the toughest run of the remaining schedule coming up, winning 3 of 4 against a truly bad team was a record-building necessity, no matter what they had done against Toronto and Seattle

True, honestly 3 of 4 was slightly disappointing. Margin for error is razor thin.

8slim · Aug 12, 2023

Gotta stack wins now. People sometimes push back on comments like this, but this team *really* needs to take 4 of the next 5 against woeful competition. Because we all know how challenging it gets for the 3 weeks that follow.

LynnRice75 · Aug 12, 2023

I used to wonder about the Sox passing teams from the East to get a Wild Card. Now days, it's the West that worries me. Who knows? Maybe the Mariners will make a run at the Rangers and Astros, and we'll be battling Texans for a spot. September brings more divisional play, so eventually they'll face each other. Just need to do our part and win.

jon abbey · Aug 12, 2023

LynnRice75 said:
I used to wonder about the Sox passing teams from the East to get a Wild Card. Now days, it's the West that worries me. Who knows? Maybe the Mariners will make a run at the Rangers and Astros, and we'll be battling Texans for a spot. September brings more divisional play, so eventually they'll face each other. Just need to do our part and win.

SEA do have two series left against both HOU and TEX, but they also have two series left against both OAK and KC.

chawson · Aug 12, 2023

LynnRice75 said:
I used to wonder about the Sox passing teams from the East to get a Wild Card. Now days, it's the West that worries me. Who knows? Maybe the Mariners will make a run at the Rangers and Astros, and we'll be battling Texans for a spot. September brings more divisional play, so eventually they'll face each other. Just need to do our part and win.

I’m also eager to see how the Rays fare in the next six weeks. Arozarena is in a deep slump (57 wRC+ since 6/25). They’ve got a top-flight rotation on the IL (McClanahan, Baz, Springs, Rasmussen, Fleming) and have Red Sox castoff Zach Littell as their #3 starter (which has been kinda working for them, somehow).

They have a ton of wins in the bank but they’re 13-20 since July 1st, and it’s possible they could continue to free fall.

TFisNEXT · Aug 12, 2023

chawson said:
I’m also eager to see how the Rays fare in the next six weeks. Arozarena is in a deep slump (57 wRC+ since 6/25). They’ve got a top-flight rotation on the IL (McClanahan, Baz, Springs, Rasmussen, Fleming) and have Red Sox castoff Zach Littell as their #3 starter (which has been kinda working for them, somehow).

They have a ton of wins in the bank but they’re 13-20 since July 1st, and it’s possible they could continue to free fall.

Yeah I was noticing Tampa’s pitching woes recently and did a mini-deep dive like you did and saw how horrific their rotation is right now. They could easily go 5-13 or something to close out August.

But all of these scenarios are moot from the Red Sox standpoint if they can’t stack up some wins.

Sin Duda · Aug 12, 2023

We're not catching TB unless they have a historic collapse. Updated Fangraphs playoff likelihood:

I'm hoping the Mariners cool down when they go on their 10-game road trip (4 @ KC, 3 @ Hou, 3 @ ChW) beginning Monday without any days off from now to the end of that trip.

Here's the reality, the Red Sox have to play .630 ball to get to 90 wins; Seattle .574; Toronto .568; Houston .511; Tampa .455 (New York .652). If the fortified Sox have another run in them like mid-June to end of July, I think they'll get in. But they have to play well to have a chance. And a chance is all I ask.

8slim · Aug 13, 2023

JM3 said:
Playoff picture not great, buuuut...

View: https://twitter.com/BostonStrong_34/status/1690828934001119232

That’s a shame.

E5 Yaz · Aug 13, 2023

Sin Duda said:
I'm hoping the Mariners cool down when they go on their 10-game road trip (4 @ KC, 3 @ Hou, 3 @ ChW) beginning Monday without any days off from now to the end of that trip.

Problem is, while they're doing that, the Red Sox begin a 16 games in 16 days stretch, the first 10 on the road, followed by three-game home sets against the Dodgers and Astros.
The Mariners no doubt will cool off some, but it'll happen during the Red Sox toughest stretch of the season

LogansDad · Aug 13, 2023

E5 Yaz said:
Problem is, while they're doing that, the Red Sox begin a 16 games in 16 days stretch, the first 10 on the road, followed by three-game home sets against the Dodgers and Astros.
The Mariners no doubt will cool off some, but it'll happen during the Red Sox toughest stretch of the season

Yep. It's a tough road for sure, but they are getting healthy at the right time (maybe a little late) and I still have hope. Really need to avoid any sort of let down against the Nats this week, because there isn't really single easy series after that. Only KC is a sub-par team, and their stadium is basically where offense goes to die.

TFisNEXT · Aug 13, 2023

LogansDad said:
Yep. It's a tough road for sure, but they are getting healthy at the right time (maybe a little late) and I still have hope. Really need to avoid any sort of let down against the Nats this week, because there isn't really single easy series after that. Only KC is a sub-par team, and their stadium is basically where offense goes to die.

I also feel like the Red Sox have played like complete shit at Kansas City for years regardless of how good each team is.

There is going to be no doubt that if the Red Sox somehow make the dance, they will have earned it.

I’m hopeful that Story’s last few days are the sign of a big hot streak and that Chris Sale is back for the final stretch run along with Bullpen Whitlock and hopefully Houck as well. The team certainly has potential to rip off a bunch of wins. At the very least, it will be good experience for the youngsters.

'23 AL Playoff Picture

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