Yep, I just posted similar, but may have been slightly off saying that the 7-8 game over .500 point seems to be the impenetrable barrier.
Certainly true, and the betting odds reflect, but the only caveat I’ll make is this isn’t exactly that team (so to speak). Story is now hoovering up the middle infield, Casas has gone super saiyan, Duvall is mashing, etc. Starting pitching may put cap on things, but at least an outside chance of staying hot.
I still can't bring myself to count them out. All I was really hoping for was for September baseball to be important and still exciting and they're providing that. I don't like to be in a position where I have to watch the scoreboard for the possibility of sneaking in but it's better than watching some dumb boring football game once a week.
Lol, brutal but fair. I keep coming back to what @tims4wins said on the last page. This team has been unable to break through all season long, following nice runs with extended stretches of terrible baseball. I think they're just about out of time here... even if they swept Toronto, it's a fair bet that they're going to piss away some games against lesser teams, because they've been doing that literally all year long.
The bolded is the key right now. It's starting to look like only 88-89 wins may be enough for the wild card now. The Sox are projected at about 84 wins right now. One extra win per week is just about the outer limits of "Well, maybe". The Sox need one good hot streak and zero cold streaks.
That cut from Millar's AB at 2:15 to the shot of Dave Roberts in the dugout seemingly accepting his pinch-running assignment in real time, so incredible.
Speaking only for myself, I haven't quit on the team. If they're playing, my TV is tuned in and I'm as much of a fan for game 162 as I am for game one. Yes, the band is back together again and the gives me more hope that they may have a good run in them. But Casas has long ago righted his offensive struggles, Duvall is on an unbelievable tear, Story has been providing GG level defense since coming back, McGuire's return has helped the catching situation, yet they've lost ground since these returns. Pitching is still a bit suspect and Story can't field every infield position. I want to be wrong more than you realize, but I can't see the type of turn around that this team needs in the time that they have left. The Texas free fall that some seem to be pinning their hopes on could be the Sox undoing if Toronto takes at least 3 of the four in their remaining series.
While they may be outliers, two mediocre teams that barely made playoffs ended up winning it all in recent World Series... Washington and Atlanta.
Honestly I get both of these takes. For the last month or more I've been shaking my head at all these posts that say something to the effect of "the Sox absolutely have to win (or sweep) XYZ series or it's over." In every case the series in question is absolutely impactful, but no one game will determine the outcome until we get to the game that eliminates them from the postseason or clinches a berth.
Still, all the Yankees had to do to clinch on the last day of the regular season was beat Cleveland, at Yankee Stadium. But, they lost 9 - 2, with Rick Waits besting Catfish Hunter. Confidence was sky high after that, one game playoff being at Fenway and all, but it all fell apart.
Yes, but that team has Fred Lynn, Dwight Evans, Jim Rice, Yaz, Fisk, etc., etc.! And I remember it and I'm under 60! My first experience of deep down existential sports grief.
I sprinted home from school--exactly 1 mile--to watch the game on tv. Existential sports grief sums it up nicely.
They are better than last year and probably above reasonable expectations from the beginning of the season. It's just after Labor Day and there is still a chance, kind of a long shot, but something that is doable.
Ceddane in the outfield next season is also a potential positive add defensively.
I hear ya. I’m not inclined to give roses because they’re likely to have a better record than last year. 2022 was lousy for a big market team that was in the ALCS the season prior. We know the circumstances, but 78 wins is 78 wins.
Red Sox have the 2nd toughest remaining SOS of any team in baseball per winning %. Rays are 12, Rangers are 17.
This year was more about separating the wheat from the chaff than being a legit championship contender. We found out that Casas and Bello are as advertised and Duran's not cooked. We found out that Pivetta still has a role on this team and that Wong is better than expected (that is, good defense and almost mediocre offense - as opposed to absolutely lame offensively). Once again the Sox found some good players on the scrap heap in Duvall, Bernardino and Reyes. These are the things the Sox build on going forward. And, yeah, we found out that the pitching staff needs a couple of high-end starters who can stay healthy. If they can get this done, 2024 looks very promising.
Thanks Sadist!
Honest question- not trying to say "Hey the Sox came back in '04".... .what's more likely, a team down 3-0 in a 7 game series and down a run in the 9th inning in game 4 to win the series or coming back to clinch the playoffs from where the Sox are now? More wondering on what level of "miracle" this would be...
Cocktail napkin math…
Fairly epic. They would need some external luck (other teams losing) and some internal luck (winning all marginal games.) But all that said they're 5 games out of the WC.
Amazing how everyone just skipped this post, but it is very possible that the Orioles put the Sox back in last. They are certainly closer to a last place team than a playoff one. The Sox starting pitching has destroyed the pen and the defense continues to disappoint. If it wasn’t for the great record against the Yankees, the Sox would already be looking at their third last place finish in the four years under Bloom.
I think it's even worse than you project as there are 22 games left to the season, not 24. So they're needing to go 17-5 to get to 89 wins. Two weeks ago they were in a decent position to make a statement with 7 games coming up against Houston, even then I was skeptical. I stated that merely winning series wasn't going to be enough as they would need to sweep a few to make up for any series the teams in front of them might sweep. In their last 16 games, since sweeping the MFY ending on 8/23, the Sox have gone 6-10. 2-2 vs Houston, 1-2 vs LAD, 0-3 vs Houston, 2-1 vs KC and 1-2 vs Tampa. 140 games into the season and the Sox are just 4 games over .500. I'm not sure that they have been more than 8 games over at any point of the season, going 12 games over the rest of the way with the teams that they have on the remaining schedule just isn't going to happen.
2004 is the single least likely thing you've seen in the history of sports. On a team level, at least.
Absolutely. It would’ve still been if they won Game 4 7-0. But to do do down in the 9th against Rivera; it’s still hard to believe 19 years later.
