Yep. The Red Sox used him on 0 days of rest six times between April 4th and May 4th, the Dodgers have used him on 0 days rest 5 times in over 2.5 months. The usage is way different in LA than it was here.
'23 AL Playoff Picture
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Sure - it's different in terms of frequency of 0 days rest usage. And as I noted, some of those BOS appearances had higher pitch counts.
But is it significantly different overall? Between April 4 and May 4, the Sox called on Brasier 13 times. Between June 21 and July 21, LA called on Brasier 12 times. And yes, that includes the ASB.
Or go with the whole season thus far:
March 30-May 14, BOS. 20 games, 21 IP, 372 pitches. prorates on a 162 game season to 68 games, 71 innings, 1265 pitches.*
June 21-Aug 28, LA. 27 games, 28 IP, 361 pitches - prorates on a 162 game season to 68 games, 71 innings, 909 pitches.
So I don't think the argument can really be that he was used more by the Sox, or less by the Dodgers, and something starkly different resulted in Ryan Brasier, the same pitcher, pitching better simply because he was well-rested.
The difference is that LAD coached him into being a better pitcher.** And then used him at about the same rate as the Sox did.
* Although if we take out Cora's final throw-him-to-the-wolves game, he'd have 19 games, 18.2 IP, 330 pitches, prorating to: 68 G, 67 IP, 1181 pitches. Here, I think it's fair to consider the pitch count numbers without the last game. They clearly were musing DFAing him to use him like that.
** Which as an aside results in a somewhat lower pitch count. So I'm sure he feels marginally less drained.
Fun fact: If the Red Sox were in the NL with this record, they'd be in the third Wild Card position.
I also don't think you can discount the Red Sox league worst defense as a factor as well. Especially with this seasons aversion to actually calling an error an error, that directly impacts his ERA not to mention additional pitches, stress etc etc.
To be fair, nobody know he was doing that until he confessed in an interview. Everybody knew Devers was laying on the ground immediately.
Not that I care. Different guys evidence frustration in different ways when the going gets rough.
Seriously, is there anyone not on SoSH who's offended by Devers taking an extra three or four seconds to get up after diving for a ball? Is this a WEEI thing that I've missed?
I think there's only one person on SoSH who's offended by it, to be honest.
"Disrespecting the game" he says. I'm am sure the game cries itself to sleep every night because of it.
Is my math wrong or maybe I’m misremembering, both definitely possible, but has this team played meaningful games in September 1 time in the last 5 years?
In 2019 they were six games out of a playoff spot on September 6 before a five game losing streak took them out. So, yes, your math is off.
Depends on how one defines “meaningful”, I think. Sox are 6.5 out now, and have a 0.7% chance at making the postseason per bref, and 3.6% by espn.
These tend to get more accurate as the season closes. . .but also less necessary. I'm not sure when they're ever really useful, given the volatility. (e.g., the Mariners went from 20% to 80% on bRef in 30 days.
Just because I’m apparently a masochist, I peeked at the Rangers schedule and entertained thoughts of their collapse. They’ve got to have THE hardest schedule- 7 games against Seattle, 4 against the Jays, 3 against Houston, 4 against Cleveland and 3 against the Sox.
If there’s any chance of the Sox miraculously making the playoffs, it’s through Texas collapsing- probably losing 5/7 to Seattle, 3/4 to Toronto and getting swept by Boston….. and Boston taking out Toronto along the way.
I’m not being optimistic just looking at the only likely scenario.
The biggest obstacle however is themselves.
If there’s any chance of the Sox miraculously making the playoffs, it’s through Texas collapsing- probably losing 5/7 to Seattle, 3/4 to Toronto and getting swept by Boston….. and Boston taking out Toronto along the way.
I’m not being optimistic just looking at the only likely scenario.
The biggest obstacle however is themselves.
I think the problem is that not only do we need the Rangers to collapse we have to somehow have the Jays mini-collapse, which is more difficult because we need the Rangers to lose to the Jays to have the big collapse we need. It’s basically the scene in it’s Always Sunny where Charlie has the red string all over the wall.
Isn't the one-out-of-five team that actually makes the playoffs starting with a 20% chance going to see it's chance increase to 100% over the remaining course of the season?
Just because a team with a 20% chance ends up in the playoffs doesn't mean that estimate was wrong at the team. Some 20% chance teams are going to make the playoffs, otherwise their chance would be zero.
Sure. But I'm questioning the usefulness of the premise.
Like on July 4, the Yanks had a 82.2% chance to make the post-season per bRef. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYY/2023-playoff-odds.shtml
Again, one out of five teams with an 80% chance of doing something aren't going to do it.
Well, you're the one voicing skepticism about the value of these metrics because teams sometimes do better or worse than the odds would indicate.
One thing to remember: Never ever never ever count on Minnesota to help you out. If it’s a game in which they could win and that win would both get them into the playoffs/advance in the playoffs and also help the Sox get in/advance….. they will make sure to lose. Guaranteed every time
This is something I really dislike about the current system. 1978 would have been a race for seeding, not life or death. All the teams fighting the Impossible Dream Sox in 1967 would have been in. No Shot Heard Round the World, Summer of 1949, 1993 Braves-Giants, the 1964 Phillies collapse.
Instead we get several medioce teams a few games above .500 fighting for the chance to probably only play a few extra games in October. Yawn.
As a Red Sox fan, yes. As a baseball fan, I really couldn't care less if the Diamondbacks, Marlins, etc... make the playoffs this year.
This year, no.
But any year the Yankees are in the playoffs, I want the Dbacks and MArlins in.
Disagree somewhat.
Im fine with the wild card. Just get rid of the divisions entirely. Thar solves of my major gripes currently.
Agree. Just rack and stack ‘em. No Divisions. Just realign as needed, save a bit on travel, keep the DH in both leagues and let ‘er rip.
Bingo. The divisions are dumb. Go 1 to 15, balanced schedule, top 2 get byes, and proceed from there.
I liked the single wild card format. The reason being is the imbalance of the divisions, with some divisions stacked. That way, the top two teams in either league could be assured of being in the playoffs on any given year. I almost came around to the second wild card, because it prevented teams from coasting at the end as they did with only a single wild card team - knowing they'd be in the post season with no disadvantage they could rest guys (with two teams suddenly there was a strong incentive to win the division). But goddamn - 3 wildcards? Utterly utterly sucks.
The AL West race is still fun because 1) Toronto is close enough that one of those teams might still miss the playoffs entirely and 2) it would be highly amusing if that team were to be Texas (or Houston, but that doesn’t seem too likely)
For every season where there was an exciting pennant race back in the pre-divisional or even pre-wildcard days, there were a couple that held absolutely no drama or suspense at all. Years where September was just the whole league playing out the string because the World Series (or LCS) match up was already locked in. For example, the year after the super exciting four-way finish in the AL, the 1968 pennant race in both leagues was over before September began. Entering September, the Cardinals were up by 12 in the NL (finished 9 up) and the Tigers were up by 7 (finished 12 up). 90% of the league had nothing to play for with over a month to go.
The multi-divisional, wildcard system may have its flaws, but at least it gives us meaningful baseball to watch through September every year. So what if that might involve some mediocre teams on occasion? I'll take the final weekend the Red Sox had in 2021 over the final month they're going to play this year, even if the stakes they were playing for were manufactured just for that purpose.
I agree 100%. People have nostalgia for the handful of seasons with a compelling race. But I remember growing up when most divisions were largely settled with weeks to go in the regular season. September was a boring slog.
Any system that involves a playoff to determine a champion is going to have an arbitrary qualifier system to some degree. What we have now is fine by me. Basically if you're a few games over .500 in late August you have a fighting chance to be a playoff team. As we stand right now on 9/4, half of MLB is essentially done for the year.
Agree here. I actually prefer this…. More teams are “in it” even if they’re delusional about getting anywhere when they get in. But certain teams- and the Sox are one of them- that are built more for the playoffs than the season. Anyone could beat anyone so I enjoy the current construction especially now that they’re not playing a stupid amount of inter-divisional games. 19against the same 4 teams is just boring. Glad they changed that
FWIW, Sox picked up a game with Houston and Arlington going against each other. Another day tomorrow like today and the Jays are in, TX out.
Im not optimistic but it’s still interesting and it’s September.
Im not optimistic but it’s still interesting and it’s September.
Yeah, I was just wondering. How close do we have to get before we start to pay some real attention to the post season chances?
Five games out jsut after Labor Day is not insurmountable. Granted, the Sox have to jump two teams, but stranger things have happened.
If we can handle Tampa and Baltimore--and I think we'll agree that's a pretty big if--and not step on our dicks against New York, this could work.
I love the optimism, but the reality is that this team has vacillated between 3 and 9 games over .500 for the past 2 months (and have been between .500 and that 9 game over mark nearly the entire year), and hasn't gotten above that 9 game mark all year. The last time they got hot, winning 8 out of 9 and 13 out of 17, they promptly lost 7 out of 8. I want to believe this is possible, but chances are they just got into another cold streak starting today or tomorrow and that will be that.
After the so-called Boston massacre in 1978, the Sox went on to LOSE 5 out of the next 6. We lost 9 out of 10 in Sept, and the season was over.
But for the fans younger than 60, something amazing happened. The sox went 8-0 to tie the Skanks on the last day of the season. I don't quite recall what happened after that,
but that was a hell of comeback. So to answer your question, I'd say if we peel off about 8 in row that would be worth paying attention to.
Normally I'm right there with you, but...This team hasn't been able to rack up the type of streak it's going to take. With the clock ticking they are further back than they were a couple of weeks ago. They hit that 7-8 game over .500 mark and regress back each time. The AL west race is working against them and as these teams play leap frog the Sox really get no closer. While it's true that they just need to pass two teams, the reality is that ther are 4 teams in front of them that affect their chances. Also, Toronto and Texas have 4 game series left. For each game that one of them loses, the other will win. They have to damn near run the table and thus far this team doesn't seem to be THAT team. That said, I'm keeping my Sox on.
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