'23 AL Playoff Picture
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Especially two days away from visiting YS for a three game series that starts a veritable gauntlet of 3 @ NYY; 4 @ Houston;3 against LAD; 3 more against Houston.
When the stake is pounded through the heart. When the body becomes a corpse. When the corpse has turned to ashes. When the ashes have scattered to the winds. Then, and only then, shall the demise of the MFY be celebrated.
Wishful thinking partly but I really do think there could be some downward spiral. Their bullpen has been in the bottom-third of MLB the last month. The downgrade from Franco to Basabe at short is pretty massive too.
Or is it?That's a "gauntlet" except for the three at the toilet.
How to Use Gantlet vs. gauntlet Correctly (grammarist.com)
Seattle gained in the WC. Sox blew a chance to pickup a game with the Jays loss. I was hoping for an 8-2 stretch through this stretch of 10 games against cellar dwellers. 7-3 was what I figured was the worst case heading into this tough upcoming schedule.
Why should we want that to happen? Personally I'm all for a competing GM who cares more about how their catchers can twist their gloves than something as mundane as being able to hit out of a wet paper bag.
Sox need a win tonight to go 7-3 against the gauntlet of KC, Detroit, and the Nationals. That was the bare minimum I wanted to see. Shame they couldn't sweep any of the series, and we need to win this series today. Of course, the "gauntlet" may be continuing this weekend at the Toilet.
Totally agree. 8-2 would have put them at 1.5 games back. A win tonight is 2.5 behind which is okay obviously with some competition against direct competitor Houston and Toronto coming up... but damn a win yesterday (and today) would have put them in a good spot at least.
Toronto has 9 tough upcoming games too (not as difficult as the Sox but 3 against the Reds, 3 against Baltimore, 3 against Guardians. Hopefully (realistically) they go 4-5... 5-4?
Seattle has the creamiest puffiest schedule with far too many games against the dregs of the league. Expecting them to pick up a game or two and leap over Toronto for the last WC spot.
Boston.... ugh..... upcoming 10 games.... hoping they can go 6-4. Realistically a 5-5 stretch is more likely but that'll at least keep them treading water.
I'm expecting in 10 days (after today) for the last WC to be Seattle and Toronto tied with the Sox down by 2.
Soooo, after today’s debacle we need to flip a switch tomorrow and tear through the next 13 games… a.k.a. our toughest stretch of the season.
I guess anything is possible.
8-11 since that sweep of Atlanta. Feels like a lonnnng time ago.
I guess anything is possible.
8-11 since that sweep of Atlanta. Feels like a lonnnng time ago.
Coming up lame over and over again when playing the dogshit teams. Not a good omen for this weekend.
Watch them go like 13-6 or something like that. It’s been that kind of team.
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Well, they're going to have to beat the good teams when they get into the playoffs, so they might as well start making a habit of it now.
I think I might want to see a few more starts before I jump to that conclusion. Three walks today and they all scored, that's a killer. That said, on one of those walks two of the four called balls were definitely strikes and a third could have gone either way. There were also two errors that played into the scoring. He gave up two hits , had a very reasonable pitch count through four innings and didn't seem to be laboring on the mound.
Among Sox starters this year...
Lowest FIP (3.75)
Lowest WHIP (1.118)
Highest K/9 (10.7)
Lowest H/9 (7.7)
Highest K/BB (4.5)
The only negative thing that jumps out about his season, other than the shoulder injury, is that his ERA is a "pedestrian" 4.50. Sale, when he's on the mound, has not been the problem.
Perhaps “liability” was wrong word choice and very game-thready. I guess my disgust stems from the fact that I still think of him as a savior, but he is really just another starter. Pedestrian. The Sox roll him out and I’m expecting a really solid start to keep the team moving forward we get a 4.1 inning/3 run (2 earned) outing. Just nothing there.
The offense didn’t do him any favors against Corbin, and the defense was about what I expect this year…
The offense didn’t do him any favors against Corbin, and the defense was about what I expect this year…
I get the above, but that’s for a mediocre starting group. the “best of the blah”…
It's his second start back from the IL after he intentionally didn't do a full rehab stint so he could build up his pitch count at the big league level instead. So 4.1 IP/65 pitches shouldn't really be viewed as either a surprise or a disappointment. Obviously you admit as much, but I think this is way more a you thing than a Sale thing.
Prediction-
Morning of Friday, Sept. 1st Seattle will be 1 game up for the last WC spot over Toronto. Sox will be 2 games back.
I'm expecting Casas to abuse the short RF fence this weekend in the Toilet.
Morning of Friday, Sept. 1st Seattle will be 1 game up for the last WC spot over Toronto. Sox will be 2 games back.
I'm expecting Casas to abuse the short RF fence this weekend in the Toilet.
I don't know why you're doubling and tripling down. If you take his salary out of it (which is going to be paid not matter how he throws), I'll take Sep Sale over any other Sox starter. I think June Sale will be what we see in September Sale.
I'm not writing them off just yet, but this team is consistently inconsistent. Even when they win, it's rare that the pitching, offense and defense come together in the way that's needed to be successful. In fact it seems rare when two of those entities are clicking at the same time. The most troubling aspect to all of this (I think) is the poor defense. Yes, the middle IF concerns seem to be mostly behind us, but other than RF and possibly CF is there another position that is playing above league average? Wong's got a great arm and that probably helps his defensive rating, but lately he seems to be throwing the ball all over the place.
I tend to ignore the people who call for firing so and so because for the most part, I think they're idiots. But the defensive deficiencies have to be addressed. Some of it is the middle infield situation, and some of it has been Tristan Casas not being as good defensively as we thought he would be. But...and I cannot stress this enough...a lot of it has been stupid shit. People trying to make plays they can't make, and throwing shit ten feet wide of where it needs to be. They need to treat the ball like they play for Bill Belichick. Giving a team an extra base isn't as bad as giving the other guys offense a drive starting in your own territory, but it's pretty fucking bad. If it continues into next year, we have to consider whether Cora is still the guy who can get the message through to the players.
I like the analogy, but I'd argue that it is as bad. At times that extra base might mean two guys are now in scoring position instead of a single runner on second. Oftentimes that error may have been an out if played correctly and depending on the situation that may mean extra bases AND an extra out.
Amen. The number of times an outfielder has airmailed the cut-off man or threw to the wrong base in a vain attempt to gun a runner down is infuriating sometimes. If it were a matter of the current players only that would be one thing, but it goes back to Renfroe and Kike too. Pretty much anyone not named JBJ who's played CF or RF in the last 3-4 years.
But a lot of the time it amounts to nothing, which isn't really the case with turnovers in football.
And there has been some absolutely moronic baserunning. The stupid of it all bugs the fuck out of me. Stupid baserunning mistakes. Stupid errors. If you fix the stupid, Toronto is looking up at us, and maybe Houston, too.
With your list of players, sorta seems like it's a Cora phenomenon. His teams almost universally have played sloppy and unintelligent baseball (I suppose 2018 is the exception, though of course that was a team brimming with elite talent). Not sure WHY that's the case (not good enough communication, or drills, or consequences, or stuff in spring training), but it certainly seems to be the case.
Why single out Casas and not the worst fielding 3B in the league.
Defense will increase substantially with a healthy Story and when they finally move Devers to DH.
I can imagine Casas getting better but it’s hard to see Devers improving at this point.
$30M is a lot to pay for a DH…. And especially one that isn’t a top offensive bat (although while it’s easy to see Devers producing more at the plate…. It’s also not hard to see him as just a steady .850 OPS hitter…. Valuable but $30M???). Best option is to get Devers playing some 1B where he can provide a rest for Casas (to DH or just full off day) and same as whoever is at 3B. Basically what Turner’s role is. I imagine Devers will be back out there next year but I don’t really see anyone in the pipeline with a good 3B defense profile that wouldn’t be a downgrade offensively too.
I love Chapman but that’s 100% not happening
I think he can improve. He's the same age as Duran and a year younger than Verdugo, who both showed improved defense this year. Devers has good range and quickness, he just makes mistakes catching and throwing. It's possible those get fixed with practice.
I also remain optimistic with Devers. He’s never going to be Chapman, and admittedly the analytics didn’t look great this season, but he did look like he was making the effort.
Sustaining that effort, and suddenly working with other legitimate position players across the infield, including further 1B improvement and god forbid maybe even +defense up the middle, and I think he can be fine out there.
If a young pup comes up and knocks him off the hot corner, so much the better.
‘Having read the article about Casas’ approach to his hitting, now that seems to be paying off I can certainly see him taking the same analytical approach to improve his defense.
I wish I could be as optimistic as others.
The reality of the situation is that the defense MUST improve. Devers, in his 6 MLB seasons, including the current one, has led MLB in errors in 5 of those 6 seasons and was second in the other. Fans can be optimistic, especially when discussing the home town team, teams cannot be. The Red Sox need to act.
At some point, Devers will be the teams DH. The sooner this is done, the sooner the defense improves.
The problem with this team is that they have quite a few very high quality hitters who are subpar defenders that probably all should be DHing: Devers, Yoshida, and Casas namely. Until this year (defensively anyway), Duran would also have been in that group.
Devers: 3.2 oWAR, -0.2 dWAR
Yoshida: 2.1 oWAR, -1.2 dWAR
Casas: 1.7 oWAR, -0.9 dWAR
Devers: 3.2 oWAR, -0.2 dWAR
Yoshida: 2.1 oWAR, -1.2 dWAR
Casas: 1.7 oWAR, -0.9 dWAR
But you're looking at it in a vacuum. 3B isn't a high-volume defense position, and his bad glovework is more survivable than slow-footed OF play or bad D up the middle (he has a good arm). The only way he becomes a DH is if there's a solid defender there and there isn't another big bat in need of being hidden defensively. If it happens, it will be because the middle infielder glut comes to fruition and pushes Mayer or whoever to third.
Yoshida takes a dWAR hit for left field at Fenway. That short field and big wall fucks with the analytics a bit. Not arguing that Yoshida is good or anything, but he's not that bad.
No, but he's really not very good out there. Definitely a good bat, also definitely not a good glove. Better suited to DH.
While some wins may be more enjoyable than others, every win is important and the defensive deficiencies affect the ability to win games.
