'23 AL Playoff Picture
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Yep, there’s a reason various outlets only have the Red Sox between 10-20% to make the playoffs.
That said, improbable does happen from time to time. If there’s any fan base that has seen it in both directions, it’s the Red Sox fan base. I feel like the Red Sox are “due” for one of those come-from-behind postseason appearances. I can’t think of any since 1988’s Morgan’s Magic? And even that year, they had made up most of the ground by mid-august.
Rays slot is getting more & more in play, especially with the Franco situation.
But yeah, chances are still not so good.
It's possible, and agree the McClanahan and Franco situations crack the door a bit.
But the Rays are currently 8 games ahead of the Red Sox roughly 75% of the way through the season. Plus the Rays are +139 and the Red Sox are +29 run differential so it'a not exactly a fluke.
Even if Franco and McClanahan don't play another game (massive blow of course), TB has to be a big favorite to still get one of the 3 wild card spots.
100% not a fluke, but lots of attrition & 19-28 in their last 47.
But yeah, they make the playoffs probably 65% with those assumptions. & even if they miss, the Red Sox aren't the most likely beneficiary.
Ideally at this point the Sox sweep both series against the Astors and bump those jerks from the playoffs. I know they’re a division rival but the Jays have always been one of my favorite teams.
2 back in the loss column with 44 left to play doesn’t seem like climbing Everest to me. Granted we don’t have much margin for error, but neither do the Jays or Ms.
I’m choosing to be optimistic until there’s a reason not to be. That could come in a week, but who knows.
I’m choosing to be optimistic until there’s a reason not to be. That could come in a week, but who knows.
Yeah, exactly. I don’t know why anyone is worried about catching the Rays. Just need to catch the Jays- and they have a few games remaining against them- and the Mariners. A lot of games vs Houston. So the opportunity is there. Won’t be easy, but is it ever? Just keep winning series.
In 1988 they made up all the ground in July and early August, drawing even with the Tigers on the eve of a 5 game series with them-and they promptly dropped the first four before Hurst spun a gem to let them start reeling in the Tigers who pretty much collapsed.
It’s mid-August and the games still matter. That’s good enough for me. There is a path here with Sale and Story back. Offense still concerns me but if Duran, Verdugo, and Masa get going again, could be interesting.
The thing that gives me hope these days is that the roster gets shorter in the playoffs. We won't need a fifth starter or the dregs of the bullpen.
I don't know about you all, but if I were in a wild card series, I wouldn't want to be facing a team with Sale, Paxton, and Bello starting and a bullpen that can toss Whitlock, Winckowski, Martin, and Jansen out there.
If we do okay in September--and that's a pretty big if--we're going to end up in the playoffs and unlike the past few years, we're going to have a decent chance to advance.
I don't know about you all, but if I were in a wild card series, I wouldn't want to be facing a team with Sale, Paxton, and Bello starting and a bullpen that can toss Whitlock, Winckowski, Martin, and Jansen out there.
If we do okay in September--and that's a pretty big if--we're going to end up in the playoffs and unlike the past few years, we're going to have a decent chance to advance.
I agree completely. And if we manage to make the playoffs then it likely means that our best pitchers and batters have been performing pretty well.
This team can get scorching hot for 8-10 days at a time, and that’s precisely what you need to make the ALCS.
I would like Bello to get past this down spell before I have confidence in him during a playoff game, but generally I agree.
Nice to see you, Was
I added winning percentages to JM3's post.
For the sake of argument, I'm assuming in this post the Sox have to catch the Jays.
The Jays are winning at a .550 clip for the season. If they continue that for the rest of their season (42 games), they'll end up with 23 more wins, 89-73. So in this scenario, the Sox need to get to 89 wins to make the playoffs (even if they lose the last three against the Jays, they've already won the season series, and thus the tie-breaker). Which means the Sox need to win 27 of their last 44 games.
So how do the Sox get to 89 wins? Here's a possible path:
after 8/13 (62-56)
8/14 off
8/15-17 ... 3 @ Nats ... 2-1 (64-57)
8/18-20 ... 3 @ Yankees ... 2-1 (66-58)
8/21-24 ... 4 @ Astros ... 2-2 (68-60)
8/25-27 ... 3 vs Dodgers ... 1-2 (69-62)
8/28-30 ... 3 vs Astros ... 2-1 (71-63)
8/31 off day
9/1-3 ... 3 @ Royals ... 2-1 (73-64)
9/4-6 ... 3 @ Rays ... 2-1 (75-65)
9/7 off day
9/8-10 ... 3 vs Orioles ... 2-1 (77-66)
9/11-14 ... 4 vs Yankees ... 3-1 (80-67)
9/15-17 ... 3 @ Blue Jays ... 2-1 (82-68)
9/18-20 ... 3 @ Rangers ... 1-2 (83-70)
9/21 off day
9/22-24 ... 3 vs White Sox ... 3-0 (86-70)
9/25 off day
9/26-27 ... 2 vs Rays ... 1-1 (87-71)
9/28-10/1 ... 4 @ Orioles ... 2-2 (89-73)
That's a tough row to hoe. They need to go 27-17, +10, over the last 44 games against a pretty tough schedule. They've gone +6 over 118 games so far. Odds aren't good. They're going to have to get hot and stay hot. From a quick survey, I think they just recently had their best 44 game stretch of the season -- from 6/14 vs Rockies to 8/7 vs Royals they went 25-19. So they're going to have to be 2 wins better than that against tougher competition.
F%&k it, LET'S GO!
I would also add that Pivetta and Crawford have been excellent out of the bullpen this year.
Mariners almost stole one, scoring 6 runs in the 8th and 9th to take a 6-5 lead over KC, but KC walked it off, 7-6.
Yup, the collapse seemed inevitable, but I was pretty shocked when I found out the Royals actually won.
Astros, Yankees & Angels all lost, too.
Rays & Orioles both winning.
Great. Unfortunately I’m told that 1 game lead is insurmountable with only 44 to play
Blue Jays play 2 against in Philly and then off for a day…. Seems like a good chance to gain a game over the next 3 to pick up 1.5 over the next 3 against DC
Not always. 9 games left against the Rays and Jays. Bottom line is there may come a time this season when we actually need them to win.
No. Never root for the Yankees.
Besides the obvious never root for the Yankees reason (like we need more). It comes back to bite us.
In 2021 some people suggested we root for the Yankees vs Tampa Bay. Well, at the end of the season the Sox were hanging by a thread...
Maybe if the Yankees are eliminated from the playoffs I can root for them if the outcome is beneficial to the Sox. Would need like 3 drinks and a shower afterwards but maybe.
The moment when I finally realized that I love the Sox more than I hate the Yankees was one I'll never forget. I think it involved Mark Belhorn and a foul pole.
I would never root for the Yankees to win unless it matters for the Sox, but if it came down to the last game of the year and the Yankees by winning could put both the Sox and the Yankees through, but otherwise neither would make it (if that is even possible; don't fight the hypo), it's not a hard call for me.
I would never root for the Yankees to win unless it matters for the Sox, but if it came down to the last game of the year and the Yankees by winning could put both the Sox and the Yankees through, but otherwise neither would make it (if that is even possible; don't fight the hypo), it's not a hard call for me.
As someone had said here a long time ago (paraphrasing) - The Yankees could go 0-162 for 4 straight seasons and start the 5th at 0-161 and I'd still be annoyed to see them get a W in the last game of the season.
Admittedly my hate for them has gone down a ton post 2004 and post A-Rod, but I still smile every time I see them lose, or when I get to talk to one of my bank reps about his "Last place NY Yankees".
Admittedly my hate for them has gone down a ton post 2004 and post A-Rod, but I still smile every time I see them lose, or when I get to talk to one of my bank reps about his "Last place NY Yankees".
I remember reading your post many moons ago and thinking I finally found a forum for people like me.
Munson, Nettles, Rivers, Pinella, Jeter, Volpe… doesn’t matter, I always want to see them take a loss.
Canadians = same
Lakers = same
Your rooting has no impact on the results of the game.
So you can choose to either root for them like some kind of "1918"-chanting moron, or you can choose to hope bad things happen to them, as all decent people would do.
Again, your choice has no impact on what happens in that game.
So you can choose to either root for them like some kind of "1918"-chanting moron, or you can choose to hope bad things happen to them, as all decent people would do.
Again, your choice has no impact on what happens in that game.
I’ll be honest, I didn’t think we’d be 3.5 games ahead of the MFY this late in the year, back in April.
Not too many people did. But at this point, who would trade the entire Red Sox roster for the Yankees? For this year or the future? That lineup is awful and it's going to take a lot of work to make them much better next season.
I really think Hal finally gets rid of both Cashman and Boone after this season. He almost has to in light of how disastrous it’s turned out. And Cohen similarly has little choice but to can both Eppler and Showalter. Both franchises have become epic failures, though the blame should be mainly on Hal and Cohen. That said, the schadenfreude is absolutely delicious!
We gotta live with ourselves, dude. Rooting for them makes that harder than Wander Franco at a quincinera.
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team that should blow it up more. Every other team in the division is going to be good for the next four or five years. Sell everything, take a few hundred loss seasons and get good again.
Pretty sure they won’t do that though.
Sell what? Stanton and Rodon are untradable without massive subsidies. Cole might get them something, but I don't know how much value his age 33-38 seasons have, and they can't trade Judge.
I chuckled the first time I read it, and then nodded because it is so, so true to how I feel about these two teams.
I've looked at the AL East standings all year with the assumption that Tampa will be at/near the top but this has been a bad week for the (bedeviled) Rays. Already down Springs and Rasmussen, now McClanahan is out for the year. Plus Wander Franco is now a huge question mark. While Tampa always manages to find ways to fill the gaps, I think they will get squeezed down into the wild card fray over the next few weeks, which could really make things interesting.
Plus, with all three of those pitchers set to miss big chunks/all of 2024, the AL East will continue to churn next year, with lots of competitive teams and no clear favorite (that will change if Baltimore suddenly decides to pay for some starting pitching, which I think would make them the frontrunner next year).
Plus, with all three of those pitchers set to miss big chunks/all of 2024, the AL East will continue to churn next year, with lots of competitive teams and no clear favorite (that will change if Baltimore suddenly decides to pay for some starting pitching, which I think would make them the frontrunner next year).
TB is 21-28 in the last 2 months (since 6/16) and their roster has degraded further during that time.
They probably built themselves enough of a cushion, but if they lose another key player, things could get pretty ugly for them...if they aren't already heading that way.
No, No, No, Nooooo....leave everything just as it is. Extend Cashman......Give Stanton a few more years on his contract. I like them just as they are.
It's a little early to be celebrating the Yankees demise. They are extreme long shots to make the playoffs, but only 3.5 games behind the Red Sox.
It's always best to make sure they are completely dead with multiple stakes driven through their hearts before celebrating their death.
It's always best to make sure they are completely dead with multiple stakes driven through their hearts before celebrating their death.
There shall be no celebrating Yankees demise until YED. That's, like, written in stone somewhere deep in the SoSH archives.It's a little early to be celebrating the Yankees demise. They are extreme long shots to make the playoffs, but only 3.5 games behind the Red Sox.
It's always best to make sure they are completely dead with multiple stakes driven through their hearts before celebrating their death.