He's reportedly a joy in the clubhouse too.Bringing in Josh Donaldson would do wonders for Boston's already stellar reputation (fairly or unfairly) as a city that welcomes and celebrates racial diversity.
He's reportedly a joy in the clubhouse too.Bringing in Josh Donaldson would do wonders for Boston's already stellar reputation (fairly or unfairly) as a city that welcomes and celebrates racial diversity.
Not as much as you or sportswriters assume. The Statcast data, which is now pervasive, has changed the nature of scouting at the professional level. We now actually have better data than BABIP and IsoP to build hitter profiles. Not to say that they're useless, but the Statcast data just brings greater context. And the statcast hitter profiles have been infinitely more valuable than derived statistics since 2015 or so (and took a leap forward in 2020 with better technology). Put another way, it's a lot harder to fool GMs with luck now, and you don't need to worry about "selling high" because if the hitting/pitching profile doesn't match the results other GMs/DBOs are going to be looking at the whys.Thanks for the lesson.
But there was a time Dalbec had value and at present Duran, Abreu and Anthony might be at their peak value.
I root for the laundry. And…The hardest of hard passes on Ronald McDonaldson. He’s not even a good baseball player anymore, and he appears to be worse in his personal beliefs.He's reportedly a joy in the clubhouse too.
Story is a pretty good SS. Rafaela by all accounts is a great CF who plays a good shortstop.Who is a better defensive SS, Story or Rafaela?
Someone else proposed this idea in a different thread and the general consensus was that Trout's contract was so under water that people would passA thought: we need to add a RH outfield bat to the lineup, ideally a better defender than Yoshida. People are talking about Ohtani, but the likely-departing Angels superstar who fits our team needs better (assuming he can pass a physical) would be... Mike Trout. The Angels say they'll trade him if he requests a trade, and frankly they should. They just went all in at the deadline and trashed their already terrible farm, and then immediately fell apart. There's basically no future over there, Trout's deal is expensive and probably somewhat underwater, and they should be considering a deep rebuild.
Trout is 31, and posted a .858 OPS in 82 games this last season. He has 7 years and about $250m remaining on his 12/$427m deal, ~$35m AAV. He is signed through 2030, when he will be 38. These next 7 seasons are clearly not worth what he'll be paid, but he's still a very good player when healthy. Health is an issue, as he's had trouble staying on the field the last few seasons; that said, it's been a combined .968 OPS across those seasons, so he hasn't fallen off much with the bat, if at all. He's still right around average defensively in CF, too. He has no-trade protection. But if we're looking for a RHH corner outfielder with the defensive chops for Fenway's RF, top-of-the-order OBP, and middle-of-the-order SLG, we could do a lot worse. Dude can still light up statcast.
If and only if Trout can pass a physical, I would gladly send the Angels a decent-to-good prospect package (we'd pitch Duran as the headliner; they'd ask for Bleis...) for Trout and, I dunno, ~$125m.
I mean:
RH Rafaela CF
LH Devers 3B
RH Trout RF
LH Casas 1B
RH Duvall LF
LH Yoshida DH
RH Story SS
LH Valdez 2B
RH Wong C
Thoughts? Is this crazy? I'm genuinely not sure.
The fact that Roman has a chance to stick in CF has been an awesome revelation - everyone always just sort of assumed he would have to cycle down to a corner OF role (in fact in my rankings list I still have him written down as a LF). I don't really think you can ever have too many good defensive outfielders as long as they can also hit.This is for JM3, and the others who follow the prospects closely. Is Roman Anthony strictly a CF, or is there a scenario where he goes to RF and Raffaela stays in CF? Or vice versa? It seems with both projecting as plus defenders that they'd be wasted in LF.
I don't think anyone would argue the other side of that. In my best case '26 OF its Anthony/C Note/Bleis, though.I’d argue that in Fenway RF defense is vital, so having prime defenders at both positions is a huge plus for the Red Sox.
Yes, if Bleis hits his one percent projection the Red Sox will have a great problem.I don't think anyone would argue the other side of that. In my best case '26 OF its Anthony/C Note/Bleis, though.
Since it looks like Cora will be back, I really doubt Verdugo will be. Cora has publicly commented negatively about him multiple times in the past year and benched him twice for various reasons, while not (publicly at least) benching anyone else. Cora seems to have a lot of pull with the decision makers left in the front office, and with all the LH outfielders we have, I would be surprised if Verdugo is back next year.“One of the things about this place, that we have to take advantage of, besides the defensive part of it, we have to be good with balls off the wall, with the angles, we have to be on point. We play 81 games here and then we play a handful of games at JetBlue,” said Cora. “So defensively, we have to take advantage of this. Running the bases, we have to take advantage of, too. Scoring from first with balls off the wall, understanding the angles and everything that comes into it offensively. I’ve seen a pattern. We haven’t hit too many balls off the wall, especially lefthanded hitters.
“We talked about [Rafael Devers] for a while there. I think Triston [Casas] was very pull-happy throughout the season until after the All-Star break. Masataka [Yoshida], I think took advantage of it. [Alex Verdugo] did not. Did not. Our lefthanded hitters, that’s quote-unquote heaven for them, right?. We have to be on point here. This is our stadium This is a unique stadium, so we have to take advantage of that.”
Wait.... Cora had all year to push for LHH to hit opposite field and he just couldn't? That's a double indictment on him as a coach! Wha????In the Glob article about Cora saying he is coming back next year, he also talked about our left-handed hitters not going to left enough.
He publicly named a few players, and of course Verdugo was one of them:
Since it looks like Cora will be back, I really doubt Verdugo will be. Cora has publicly commented negatively about him multiple times in the past year and benched him twice for various reasons, while not (publicly at least) benching anyone else. Cora seems to have a lot of pull with the decision makers left in the front office, and with all the LH outfielders we have, I would be surprised if Verdugo is back next year.
It makes very little sense to me. Savant sorts by pull/center/opposite field outcomes, but won't sort by home-games, so I'd be curious to see what the difference is for Devers and Verdugo in Fenway from 2022 to 2023. There might be something but the overall does not look that stark at first glance.Wait.... Cora had all year to push for LHH to hit opposite field and he just couldn't? That's a double indictment on him as a coach! Wha????
That's an interesting take. I view that entire exchange as Cora not throwing the player under the bus for being late. It was a test for Verdugo, and he failed. Verdugo had a change to "own it" and instead decided to "keep it in the house". I think it speaks volumes about Verdugo. I don't think he will be with the team in '24 as he had the opportunity to hold himself accountable and choose a separate path.When Verdugo and Cora had their most recent dust up, Verdugo talked about not wanting to publicly get into what their beef was about and instead focusing on the remaining 7 weeks of the season. On the one hand, that could be taken as we're working on making a run into the playoffs. On the other hand, it could be taken as I'll hold my tongue now and in 7 weeks I'll be out of Boston for good. We may find out in October.
Not sure where you're getting your facts. He struggled to adjust to the big leagues after being very aggressively promoted ( he reached the bigs at 21) and then was worth 3+ WAR in two straight seasons for Milwaukee. Urias had two straight full seasons of wrc+ over 110 prior to this year, where yes, he was injured. Those numbers would have made sandwiched him between Yoshida and Turner at a position where it's tough to get good offensive production.I continually see posts about Urias as our 2b. I really don’t get the love affair with the guy. He had one decent season with ops+ 118 and the rest he’s been ineffective or not playing.
Anyhow, I see this team needing major changes. A lot of people are banking on internal growth and incremental improvements, but we are light years away from three teams in our own division, let alone the rest of the league.
We are saddled with large amounts of mediocrity in the lineup and the rotation. I would expect big changes this off-season or we are gonna be bitchi about 78-84 again.
Yeah, if he posts a .337 slugging percentages again that would be painful, but he was a guy who was slugging north of .400 prior to the hamstring injury. I think the hamstring injury may have sapped some of his power. With a full off-season I would imagine he'll be back to hitting homers. If not, Valdez is there as insurance.A .361 obp is nice, less so when it’s accompanied with a .337 slg. Urias is interesting but i am not sure he’s worth the ~$5M he’s likely to get in arbitration. Wonder if there’s the potential to work out a deal with more incentives to avoid arb.
There's a lot of "ifs" here, but I guess the strategy is Story is at SS next season with hopefully getting by with good defense and okay offense at 2B. Either Yorke or Mayer is ready to take over and Story moves to the other spot. Also there's a big "IF" for Story going into the future as discussed in another thread, but with his salary, it's a commitment actually.They're not upgrading at 2nd again unless they trade Yorke this winter, and probably not even then. The FA options are all worse than the guys under control, and Story is very likely to be back at 2b in 2025 anyway.
He is exactly the same as Christian Arroyo. His numbers all align… again, not sure why we are excited about him. We had a very similar player and released him.Not sure where you're getting your facts. He struggled to adjust to the big leagues after being very aggressively promoted ( he reached the bigs at 21) and then was worth 3+ WAR in two straight seasons for Milwaukee. Urias had two straight full seasons of wrc+ over 110 prior to this year, where yes, he was injured. Those numbers would have made sandwiched him between Yoshida and Turner at a position where it's tough to get good offensive production.
I'm his time in Boston he posted a WRC+ of 99, including an OBP north of .360, which blew most of the dross we played at 2B and SS ojt of the water. He missed a lot of time and had an overall terrible year. I expect him to compete with Valdez for the 2B job next year and to probably win it, since he can field the position.
I don't know if anyone's truly "excited" about Urias, but he's two years younger than Arroyo and has an extra year of team control so that probably plays into why he's still here and Arroyo is not. They're not exactly the same player though.He is exactly the same as Christian Arroyo. His numbers all align… again, not sure why we are excited about him. We had a very similar player and released him.
Yeah, this.They're not upgrading at 2nd again unless they trade Yorke this winter, and probably not even then. The FA options are all worse than the guys under control, and Story is very likely to be back at 2b in 2025 anyway.
Which is reflected in his walk rates, which is why he has such a better floor than a guy like Arroyo. Even if Urias isn't hitting a bunch of home runs, he'll get on base at a decent clip, something you couldn't say about almost any of the Red Sox starters besides Casas. Here's the team organized by OBP.Urias has also been substantially better at laying off pitches outside the zone.
Chase rate 2022-23 (min. 500 PA)
Arroyo - 43.1% (306th of 318 players)
Urias - 27.1% (54th of 318 players)
I like this proposed team in the field, SaLTy. Thanks for taking the time to put this together. Gives me hope and a clear understanding of where they should spend their money and resources this offseason.I’m leaning towards hoping Cedanne-Super-Sub as
There's a lot of "ifs" here, but I guess the strategy is Story is at SS next season with hopefully getting by with good defense and okay offense at 2B. Either Yorke or Mayer is ready to take over and Story moves to the other spot. Also there's a big "IF" for Story going into the future as discussed in another thread, but with his salary, it's a commitment actually.
I was leaning towards trading Duran and holding onto Verdugo for one more season but now I'm leaning towards getting any value out of Verdugo as possible and going with 2B combo of one of Urias/Reyes as majority starters there and having Rafaela play 33% time there.
Rafaela starting a majority in CF with Duran getting the starts there when Rafaela is at 2B or SS (giving Story occasional breaks)
Yoshida mostly DH, 33% in LF and Duran getting most of the reps there.
Abreu in RF.
I generally see an improvement in defense and perhaps an overall drop in offense but not enough to have a major effect. I could convince myself that Devers will rebound, Casas will continue to rake right out of the gate and Yoshida won't start as slow and won't hit a wall. Story will improve. Abreu will provide equal offense as Verdugo.
It really comes down to the starting pitching. The Sox REALLY need to get two good guys there and the overall club will be tremendously better.
I like it too, and think it's absolute (I guess obvious) they need to acquire two good starting pitchers. Though I think they also really need a blue chip RHH power bat, too. So so lefty heavy.I like this proposed team in the field, SaLTy. Thanks for taking the time to put this together. Gives me hope and a clear understanding of where they should spend their money and resources this offseason.
I'm hoping that there's also some way to get Trout and have an OF platoon of him in RF with Abreu, DH platoon with Yoshida.I like it too, and think it's absolute (I guess obvious) they need to acquire two good starting pitchers. Though I think they also really need a blue chip RHH power bat, too. So so lefty heavy.
By my count, you've got 12 players there. Room for one more on the bench.I'm hoping that there's also some way to get Trout and have an OF platoon of him in RF with Abreu, DH platoon with Yoshida.
1B Casas
2B Urias/Rafaela/Reyes
3B Devers
SS Story/Rafaela
RF Trout/Abreu
CF Rafaela/Duran
LF Duran/Yoshida
DH Trout/Yoshida
C Wong/McGuire
I'm not sure how to deal with the backup corner IF for rest and/or injury though.... can Trout learn to pick up a 1B mitt?
I've been going back and forth on Duran and I'm starting to think his change is for real. Maybe not quite as high as he went this past season but I'm willing to bet that he can hit for a high average and that the BABiP will continue to be around .370. A lot of posters were hoping that the defensive changes in the shift would allow him to find some holes and his speed would turn several singles into doubles and that pretty much came true. His defense improved and I could see it being even better in LF (while I don't think Yoshida's D is as bad as the stats indicated, he's still not good). He also brings an element of the offense that is missing from basically everyone else that has been undervalued over the past 25-30 years.Just bringing back Turner seems like it makes a ton of sense for them imo. I want to trade Duran and keep Yoshida in left for another year.
Almost nobody maintains a BABIP over .350 for their career, nevermind .370. Here are the all-time leaders:I've been going back and forth on Duran and I'm starting to think his change is for real. Maybe not quite as high as he went this past season but I'm willing to bet that he can hit for a high average and that the BABiP will continue to be around .370. A lot of posters were hoping that the defensive changes in the shift would allow him to find some holes and his speed would turn several singles into doubles and that pretty much came true. His defense improved and I could see it being even better in LF (while I don't think Yoshida's D is as bad as the stats indicated, he's still not good). He also brings an element of the offense that is missing from basically everyone else that has been undervalued over the past 25-30 years.
I definitely would kick the tires on a Trout deal (the future of the Angels looks dismal while I can see with adding pitching that the Sox' looks much brighter) but if he can't be brought back then I would push for Turner. Yeah, they need a RH power between Casas and Devers clearly.
This is great, thanks for the info!Almost nobody maintains a BABIP over .350 for their career, nevermind .370. Here are the all-time leaders:
View attachment 72052
You'll notice that most of these guys were born before the Titanic sank, and the ones who are modern players have only played a couple of full seasons (Brandon Marsh and Alfaro), so there's probably a lot of luck involved in their appearance here.
All told there's just 5 guys in the history of baseball with career BABIPs over .370 and only 30 over .350. It's really hard to do.
It's not impossible Duran is one of those guys, but I do think it's very unlikely.
Here's a link to that leaderboard: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&sortcol=11&sortdir=default&pagenum=2&pageitems=30
I should add that I like Duran, I just don't want him starting in center field.
Nope, not going to do it. Not going down this rabbit hole again with another megastar
Yeah. This is starting to feel like an agent taking advantage of a frustrated "big market" fanbase and a front office in limbo to goose the market. Not going to fall for it and raise hopes. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised if he signs here.Nope, not going to do it. Not going down this rabbit hole again with another megastar
Not a problem. Easy Q.
My first projection has us at ~$192.26MM, ~$45MM below the first CBT threshold. That number does not include any of the option guys' money (Turner, Kluber, Joely) and does include everyone currently under team control regardless of team intent (Urias, Dalbec, etc).
Using aggressive high-end estimates of $60MM/yr for Ohtani and $25MM/yr for Yamamoto, that would put Boston at ~$277.26MM before any other moves, or right at the third CBT threshold.
You can carve out more money by mentally removing a few rumored moves like Verdugo which drops another $9-12MM, but that's the state of things right now. Adjust in your head for any fluctuation in the projected FA contracts above.
Depending on the length...?