2024 Core

beautokyo

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Manuel Aristides

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I don't know that this team is a Shohei Ohtani away.

But, I do know that ownership clearly feels a way about the Chaim Bloom "all the big stars leave" era. Fair characterization or not, Henry has been painted as a cheapskate and the Sox as unserious, particularly in the eyes of the casual fans. And let's be honest: they only ever want/need to appeal to the casual fans. Freaks like us pretty much watch no matter how bad it gets. But Magda from Malden doesn't go to three games a year when she ain't heard of anyone on the team (besides Devers, but, he's not that kind of star quite yet. Close, IMO).

Shohei changes that immediately. And the injury presents a sort of interesting opportunity: presumably it will lower his price (at least, a little bit) but also, you sort of bake in another "Big Add" in '25: Shohei the pitcher. Nobody can call them cheap employing the probable highest paid player of all time.

I'd like to think that the GM makes a big difference here-- it certainly SHOULD-- but if they sign him, I think that the optics will be the main reason more than the baseball ops. And frankly, while I don't love the idea of paying so much to a guy who has had two serious pitching injuries, I would be excited by the star power.

Anyway, I think there's a chance, regardless of if it's a good idea or not, that it happens. And I think I'm rooting for it, despite the obvious risks.
 

moondog80

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No. You are going to have to pay a contract that assumes he performs top level as a hitter AND a pitcher, over a long period of time. I don't like those odds. You could probably pay Soto and Yamamoto for the same AAV, maybe less, and have a much shorter length on Yamamoto.
 

IpswichSox

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Yeah, Shohei would be amazing, but there's way too much risk wrapped up in what would still be an enormous contract. And he wouldn't solve our 2024 starting pitching problems. I would rather take some of that Shohei money and over-pay Dombrowski-style for Yamamoto to guarantee we get him, then trade from some of our emerging surplus talent for a second top-end starting pitcher.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Shohei in a Red Sox uniform but if it's paying him guaranteed money as if he's going to hit and pitch for a decade it's not worth the risk.
 

sezwho

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John Henry can afford it. The contract might not age well, but sign me up for Ohtani.
He can afford to pay it, but what about pay to replace him if he’s injured? Maybe I’ll catch flak for this, but feels like the track record here when there’s a big long bad salary (from Beckett to Sale) is to wait it out and turtle. Hard pass unless you’re heavily insulated against his pitching risk somehow, which you won’t be in a competitive market.

My pitcher can’t pitch if my hitter takes a ball of the hand? My hitter can’t hit if my pitcher hurts his shoulder? Maybe just the financial engineering in me but just seems so crazy to basically tie two massive salaried players (30m pitcher and 30m hitter) to massively correlated injury risks.
 

walt in maryland

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A thought: we need to add a RH outfield bat to the lineup, ideally a better defender than Yoshida. People are talking about Ohtani, but the likely-departing Angels superstar who fits our team needs better (assuming he can pass a physical) would be... Mike Trout. The Angels say they'll trade him if he requests a trade, and frankly they should. They just went all in at the deadline and trashed their already terrible farm, and then immediately fell apart. There's basically no future over there, Trout's deal is expensive and probably somewhat underwater, and they should be considering a deep rebuild.

Trout is 31, and posted a .858 OPS in 82 games this last season. He has 7 years and about $250m remaining on his 12/$427m deal, ~$35m AAV. He is signed through 2030, when he will be 38. These next 7 seasons are clearly not worth what he'll be paid, but he's still a very good player when healthy. Health is an issue, as he's had trouble staying on the field the last few seasons; that said, it's been a combined .968 OPS across those seasons, so he hasn't fallen off much with the bat, if at all. He's still right around average defensively in CF, too. He has no-trade protection. But if we're looking for a RHH corner outfielder with the defensive chops for Fenway's RF, top-of-the-order OBP, and middle-of-the-order SLG, we could do a lot worse. Dude can still light up statcast.

If and only if Trout can pass a physical, I would gladly send the Angels a decent-to-good prospect package (we'd pitch Duran as the headliner; they'd ask for Bleis...) for Trout and, I dunno, ~$125m.

I mean:

RH Rafaela CF
LH Devers 3B
RH Trout RF
LH Casas 1B
RH Duvall LF
LH Yoshida DH
RH Story SS
LH Valdez 2B
RH Wong C

Thoughts? Is this crazy? I'm genuinely not sure.
I'd much prefer trading for Trout to signing Ohtani. But obviously, it's up to Trout and the Angels whether he'll be available.
 

walt in maryland

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Someone else proposed this idea in a different thread and the general consensus was that Trout's contract was so under water that people would pass
If Trout wants out and if the Angels want to move him, I bet Anaheim would pick up a chunk of Trout's remaining contract to improve the prospect haul.
 

Hank Scorpio

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How much money are we talking about with Ohtani’s New Balance deal? Someone here speculated that Ohtani may want to come here because of his ties with NB, and went on to believe that NB might throw him more money if he were to come to Boston.

Curious as to how much deals like this are usually worth; and if it makes sense for Ohtani to come here, from his perspective, on something of a discount.

But honestly, I don’t know if his endorsement deal is worth $50,000 or $50,000,000…

All said, I love Ohtani as a player, but I’d be very worried about giving him $50-60M, especially since we don’t know how he’ll pan out as a pitcher going forward. I’d want any deal to have roughly half his salary heavily incentivized on how well/often he can continue to pitch. It’s a pipe dream though. Someone is going to give him an insane contract. Just don’t think it should be us.

John Henry can afford it. The contract might not age well, but sign me up for Ohtani.
He can afford it, but if we’re going to stay in the vicinity of the salary cap, allocating roughly 25% of your resources to one guy seems like it could hinder the team in the near future. Plus you’ve also go $30M or so tied up in Devers…
 

Apisith

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It is a bit ironic that Dombrowski was fired because the Sale contract looked bad pretty much immediately after. I'm wondering whether Devers putting up 3.5 wins after signing a long-term and expensive extension is part of why Bloom's gone. Would Devers have gotten a 10/$310m deal this offseason? I really doubt it. Partially joking but maybe the new GM can convince Raffy to go on Ozempic for a few months and sort out his weight issues. He needs to be putting up closer to 5 wins next year or this contract is already way underwater.
 

cantor44

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It is a bit ironic that Dombrowski was fired because the Sale contract looked bad pretty much immediately after. I'm wondering whether Devers putting up 3.5 wins after signing a long-term and expensive extension is part of why Bloom's gone. Would Devers have gotten a 10/$310m deal this offseason? I really doubt it. Partially joking but maybe the new GM can convince Raffy to go on Ozempic for a few months and sort out his weight issues. He needs to be putting up closer to 5 wins next year or this contract is already way underwater.
It seems to me that Organization's recent bigger contracts were usually, partially, compensations for missing out on bigger targets, or reactions to fan dissatisfaction to not landing bigger targets. This goes back some ways. They didn't sign Betts when they should have, or Xander (yes, they shouldn't offered the SD contract, but there was a chance the year prior at less), so they really had to sign their last homegrown star left, Devers. Though, maybe, if you would have prioritized them, he may have been the third choice to give a mega contract to, while Betts clearly should have been A#1.

When all those hot shortstops came on the market, the Red Sox weren't willing to go for the really elite guys, and the last guy standing, that could be had for a little less, was Story (even though he was coming off an injured down year offensively. Again, somewhat reactive rather than proactive.

The one exception, recently, might have been Sale, and that was confusing given HE was coming off an injured season and had a year left on his contract to test if was healthy. So, that one was a head scratcher. Of course massive contracts don't guarantee success, yes, yes. But a championship organization is going to have a few, and the ability to target the right guys is the charge. The organization really has been whiffing at this for a while. Though let's hope Devers best years are still ahead and he will bounce back to better D and OPS over 900.
 

BaseballJones

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How much money would Ohtani make the Sox' ownership? I'm thinking of him as a superduperstar personality - the jersey sales, etc. Would he - aside from baseball itself - be worth $60m a year?
 

moondog80

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How much money would Ohtani make the Sox' ownership? I'm thinking of him as a superduperstar personality - the jersey sales, etc. Would he - aside from baseball itself - be worth $60m a year?
Doesn't that get split among the 30 teams? Which is to say, the merchandising benefits of a star player to a team aren't all that much?
 

YTF

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How much money would Ohtani make the Sox' ownership? I'm thinking of him as a superduperstar personality - the jersey sales, etc. Would he - aside from baseball itself - be worth $60m a year?
I think the bigger question would be how much money would an exciting, World Series contender/winner make the Sox ownership? I'm thinking of a super duper team with personality. That's something that this team's ownership can relate to and probably calculate. Some of the luster wears off from Ohtanimania if the team isn't winning and I'm not sure how the long term commitment to Ohtani affects the money being spread around in other areas. We've seen the effects of bad contracts here and throughout the league and some are already concerned about how Raffy's contract is going to play out. It would be amazing to watch him do what he's been doing in L.A. on a regular basis, but realistically speaking how much longer will THAT Shohei be playing the game? The #1 need of this team is a stabilized, top flight pitching rotation and everyone around baseball is speculating on how much of a pitching future Ohtani has left.
 

Yo La Tengo

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What would a deal for Chas McCormick look like? There was some reporting about friction between him and Dusty Baker including anonymous quotes from the team about frustration over playing time. He’s cost controlled (3 more years of arbitration) and productive so he would seem to be off limits for a trade but he’d fit great in Boston if the Astros want to clear some space in the OF/DH log jam.
 

Fishy1

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I’m pretty intrigued by Wilyer Abreu. Six years of him seem like they’d be worth a lot more than the gap between Drury’s age-31 season and Luis Urias, who is four years his junior.
Agreed. Drury was worth 1.8 bWAR last year, or about equivalent to Yoshida. He was worth 2.1 the year before that. by fWAR, he was a 3.0 and a 2.5 (which is pretty good!) But he gets on base like Ceddanne Rafaela (a 4.8% BB rate last year) and has been a negative or at best average defensive presence by most metrics his entire career, and he's about to turn 31. He's not a bad player, but he's not worth all of that.

I'd be happy to give a lotto ticket for him, since he's more of a sure thing to productive than Urias and Valdez given the former's horrid year and the latter's defensive uncertainties. But honestly I don't see the need: I would rather bet than one of Urias (who's cheaper and whose previous two years were about as good anything Drury has ever done) and Valdez emerge in the spring ready to take the 2B job and pick up a guy like Drury at the deadline if it's not working out than send off Abreu, who looks like he could be a stud, for one year of a guy who hits a lot of homers and does basically little else.

Valdez also still intrigues me! I know he was a butcher defensively in the first half, but if he can sort that out, he has the potential to be Drury-ish hitter himself. I'd like to see him find the plate discipline he showed in AAA -- he barely walked more than Rafaela in the bigs after posting a 17% BB rate in AAA - but it's possible that will never happen.
 

Fishy1

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I still think Drury is worth considering and I'm guessing he'd be available. I would much rather they non-tender Urias and trade for Drury.
Can I ask why?

I understand Urias just had a really bad year, but he's half as expensive, was injured this year, is four years younger, and his previous two seasons were about as good as Drury's best years. I just don't see a huge delta between the two of them.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Can I ask why?

I understand Urias just had a really bad year, but he's half as expensive, was injured this year, is four years younger, and his previous two seasons were about as good as Drury's best years. I just don't see a huge delta between the two of them.
So the PA could play, "Hit Me With Your Rhythm Stick" when he came up to bat?
 

BaseballJones

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I’m pretty intrigued by Wilyer Abreu. Six years of him seem like they’d be worth a lot more than the gap between Drury’s age-31 season and Luis Urias, who is four years his junior.
You should be intrigued by Abreu.

2021 (A+) - .268/.363/.495/.857, 1 hr every 17.9 ab
2022 (AA) - .247/.399/.435/.834, 1 hr every 24.1 ab
2023 (AAA) - .274/.391/.539/.930, 1 hr every 13.6 ab
2023 (MLB) - .316/.388/.474/.862, 1 hr every 38.0 ab (but 6 2b in just 76 ab is pretty nice)

So the guy can flat out hit, period end of story. He has the potential to be a significant offensive force for Boston moving forward and obviously is under many years of control.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Can I ask why?

I understand Urias just had a really bad year, but he's half as expensive, was injured this year, is four years younger, and his previous two seasons were about as good as Drury's best years. I just don't see a huge delta between the two of them.
If there is value to be gained by dealing Urias I'd seek that out. I think we are more likely to need a one year stop gap and I believe Drury will be more valuable than Urias in 2024. I'm sick of the rebuild mindset and sick of the "this guy is an undervalued asset" mindset. It's fine in small doses, but in large doses it leads to last place finishes. After the acquisition, when he was healthy, Urias didn't get the bulk of the playing time at 2B and I envision that if he's your starter we're going to face another year of inconsistent offense and defense out of the position. If we're keeping the seat warm for Yorke or someone else, so be it but that doesn't mean we need to punt the position entirely in 2024. Since my ask of Kim was largely thwarted on here for not being grounded in reality I'm suggesting an alternative that will certainly be available.

At this point, I think every player on the roster should be considered as trade fodder with the exception of Devers, Casas, Bello (provided he's not slotted in at #1) and Martin. If Anaheim wants Yoshida in a deal for Trout and Drury, sign me up (obviously this doesn't match up, but you hopefully see my point). If we can trade Durran for a starter, I'm on board.

The team has been weak at too many positions for too long to be complacent with the status quo.
 

Fishy1

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You should be intrigued by Abreu.

2021 (A+) - .268/.363/.495/.857, 1 hr every 17.9 ab
2022 (AA) - .247/.399/.435/.834, 1 hr every 24.1 ab
2023 (AAA) - .274/.391/.539/.930, 1 hr every 13.6 ab
2023 (MLB) - .316/.388/.474/.862, 1 hr every 38.0 ab (but 6 2b in just 76 ab is pretty nice)

So the guy can flat out hit, period end of story. He has the potential to be a significant offensive force for Boston moving forward and obviously is under many years of control.
Yeah, the leap he made this past year -- and his general progression as a hitter -- is really impressive. He's a guy who has repeatedly made adjustments.

72676
Two things really leap out to me: he struggled mightily in 2018 and 2019, hitting all of two home runs across three levels, and showing little of the plate discipline he shows now. He came back post-pandemic as a guy who struck out a lot more, but who was also hitting a lot of home runs. He then proceeded to cut his K rate moving from A to AA and then again in moving up to AAA, while, as you noted, hitting for MORE power than ever before.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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The Sox have a lot of players who are kinda sorta pretty good, so it's tempting to want to keep them because there's probably more meat on that bone with them, but also it's tempting to want to deal them because they aren't really good enough right now to make the Sox a great team, and you probably would like an upgrade over them. It's kind of a weird spot to be in. Almost everyone we would consider trading away is also someone that you can make a good argument for keeping.

Even Urias. I mean, he's not in any way a great player, right? But he's still young (2024 will be his age 27 season), he's not very expensive, he's under control for a few years, and he definitely has talent - 112 and 108 ops+ in 2021 and 2022, respectively. So he wouldn't at all be the worst guy to just keep at 2b next year and hope he gets close to his 2021 and 2022 form, and the fact is, it may not be easy to actually improve the position over him. (certainly it would be harder to improve over him IF his true level is 2021 and 2022). If he was like one of the worst offensive players on your team, that's a pretty good team you've got there.
 

Fishy1

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If there is value to be gained by dealing Urias I'd seek that out. I think we are more likely to need a one year stop gap and I believe Drury will be more valuable than Urias in 2024. I'm sick of the rebuild mindset and sick of the "this guy is an undervalued asset" mindset. It's fine in small doses, but in large doses it leads to last place finishes. After the acquisition, when he was healthy, Urias didn't get the bulk of the playing time at 2B and I envision that if he's your starter we're going to face another year of inconsistent offense and defense out of the position. If we're keeping the seat warm for Yorke or someone else, so be it but that doesn't mean we need to punt the position entirely in 2024. Since my ask of Kim was largely thwarted on here for not being grounded in reality I'm suggesting an alternative that will certainly be available.

At this point, I think every player on the roster should be considered as trade fodder with the exception of Devers, Casas, Bello (provided he's not slotted in at #1) and Martin. If Anaheim wants Yoshida in a deal for Trout and Drury, sign me up (obviously this doesn't match up, but you hopefully see my point). If we can trade Durran for a starter, I'm on board.

The team has been weak at too many positions for too long to be complacent with the status quo.
Let me first say this. I don't disagree in principle with your larger point: I don't believe anyone should be off the table for an upgrade. We've got a lot of guys who are 2-3 win players and very few who are 4+ (Story and Devers are the only position players with any history of that sort of performance). Verdugo, Duran, Yoshida, Urias, Wong/McGuire, and the DH position could all be improved on.

But I'm not sure how one year of a guy who plays mediocre defense, has a career OBP of .300 and a career wrc+ of 97, is the sort of deal that's worth making. Urias hit .194 on a .250 BABIP last year and his OBP STILL surpassed Drury's by 31 points. In fact, Drury's line looks a lot like Duvall's, actually, who we went out and signed for 7 million after he had a rough season where he had a wrc+ of 87 and was injured. Some posters want him resigned, but my reaction is Duvall last year sounds a lot like Urias this year, except we don't have to sign him for 7 million, we get him on arb money (which should end up being south of 7 million, but I'm not sure).

I also think there's a lot of recency bias occurring when people are evaluating Urias's lost season: Drury and Urias have almost exactly the same wrc+ for their career. Drury totally had a better year last year, but I do not see how having Valdez and Urias compete for the position is punting on the position when Urias has been as good as Drury as recently two of the last three years.

Now, if you want to upgrade that position, by all means, do so. But Drury isn't going to be a major difference maker.

Also, Urias isn't going to fetch us much - Milwaukee got a lottery ticket in A+ for him.
 
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chawson

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If there is value to be gained by dealing Urias I'd seek that out. I think we are more likely to need a one year stop gap and I believe Drury will be more valuable than Urias in 2024. I'm sick of the rebuild mindset and sick of the "this guy is an undervalued asset" mindset. It's fine in small doses, but in large doses it leads to last place finishes. After the acquisition, when he was healthy, Urias didn't get the bulk of the playing time at 2B and I envision that if he's your starter we're going to face another year of inconsistent offense and defense out of the position. If we're keeping the seat warm for Yorke or someone else, so be it but that doesn't mean we need to punt the position entirely in 2024. Since my ask of Kim was largely thwarted on here for not being grounded in reality I'm suggesting an alternative that will certainly be available.

At this point, I think every player on the roster should be considered as trade fodder with the exception of Devers, Casas, Bello (provided he's not slotted in at #1) and Martin. If Anaheim wants Yoshida in a deal for Trout and Drury, sign me up (obviously this doesn't match up, but you hopefully see my point). If we can trade Durran for a starter, I'm on board.

The team has been weak at too many positions for too long to be complacent with the status quo.
I feel you. I really hope that that mindset is about to be backburnered for awhile. But also Drury was a "this guy is an undervalued asset" kind of guy — and a failed one — for like half a decade before it clicked for whatever reason in Cincinnati. He peaked at #94 on the BA top prospects list, FWIW. Urias peaked at #31 three years later.

Drury's fine but I'm a little wary of that kind of player, a low-OBP, .800 OPS guy on the wrong side of 30 (with one of the higher chase rates in the league). Urias didn't have a particularly inspiring year, but I cautiously think that his plate discipline gives him a higher floor. As a straight choice between the two, I'd probably pick Drury over Urias for next year too, but I'd rather we spend the resources elsewhere.
 

thestardawg

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If there is value to be gained by dealing Urias I'd seek that out. I think we are more likely to need a one year stop gap and I believe Drury will be more valuable than Urias in 2024. I'm sick of the rebuild mindset and sick of the "this guy is an undervalued asset" mindset. It's fine in small doses, but in large doses it leads to last place finishes. After the acquisition, when he was healthy, Urias didn't get the bulk of the playing time at 2B and I envision that if he's your starter we're going to face another year of inconsistent offense and defense out of the position. If we're keeping the seat warm for Yorke or someone else, so be it but that doesn't mean we need to punt the position entirely in 2024. Since my ask of Kim was largely thwarted on here for not being grounded in reality I'm suggesting an alternative that will certainly be available.

At this point, I think every player on the roster should be considered as trade fodder with the exception of Devers, Casas, Bello (provided he's not slotted in at #1) and Martin. If Anaheim wants Yoshida in a deal for Trout and Drury, sign me up (obviously this doesn't match up, but you hopefully see my point). If we can trade Durran for a starter, I'm on board.

The team has been weak at too many positions for too long to be complacent with the status quo.
Is Drury going to be part of the next good Red Sox team? I just don’t see it He is a below average defender. He’s not fast and isn’t a particularly good baserunner. He has good power but that seems to be his only plus skill. And he’s 31 and is heading for decline.

as much as I don’t think nick yorke will be a star I’d give him every chance to win the job. If he could play average defense and ops around .730 he would be light years above the pu pu platter of suck the Sox featured last year. I realize aa to the majors is a big jump but it would be nice if he could approach league average at a minimum salary.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I doubt there is value to be gained by trading Urias. He was just traded for Bradley Blalock. And now he’s going to get more expensive. He’s a potential non-tender, not a guy who is going to return anything in value.
 

JM3

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I doubt there is value to be gained by trading Urias. He was just traded for Bradley Blalock. And now he’s going to get more expensive. He’s a potential non-tender, not a guy who is going to return anything in value.
Probably not going to get (much) more expensive. The projection is that his salary remains the same ($4.7m).

I thought that was because they couldn't lower salary from the previous year via arb, but apparently it can technically be lowered by up to 20% ($3.76m), although I'm pretty sure that wouldn't happen.

Regardless, your overall point that he isn't extremely valuable is true.

A player's salary can indeed be reduced in arbitration -- with 20 percent being the maximum amount by which a salary can be cut.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/salary-arbitration
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Is Drury going to be part of the next good Red Sox team? I just don’t see it He is a below average defender. He’s not fast and isn’t a particularly good baserunner. He has good power but that seems to be his only plus skill. And he’s 31 and is heading for decline.

as much as I don’t think nick yorke will be a star I’d give him every chance to win the job. If he could play average defense and ops around .730 he would be light years above the pu pu platter of suck the Sox featured last year. I realize aa to the majors is a big jump but it would be nice if he could approach league average at a minimum salary.
Poor base running, above average offense, above average defense.
I doubt there is value to be gained by trading Urias. He was just traded for Bradley Blalock. And now he’s going to get more expensive. He’s a potential non-tender, not a guy who is going to return anything in value.
I'd be in the camp of non-tendering him if there's no value there. He's gonna get $4.5+ mil that I'd rather seen spent towards someone better.
 

chawson

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Poor base running, above average offense, above average defense.

I'd be in the camp of non-tendering him if there's no value there. He's gonna get $4.5+ mil that I'd rather seen spent towards someone better.
There does seem like a shortage of useful 2Bs out there on the market. Free agents this offseason include Adam Frazier, Tony Kemp, Kolten Wong, Donovan Solano, Michael Chavis and Brad Miller, and probably 35-year-old Whit Merrifield (91 wRC+ over 2022-23) if Toronto declines his $18M option as expected.

I would certainly prefer Luis Urias over any of those (except maybe Solano, but I don't think he can play the position anymore). Probably prefer Pablo Reyes too.
 

Yo La Tengo

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Since my post about Chas McCormick was such a hit, let's try another: Mitch Garver replacing McGuire next year? He's 32, caught 230 innings this year as he came back from injury, and he has been a very good hitter whenever healthy. If he could also back-up at 1B that would be ideal, but he's only played 50 innings there in his career.

EDIT to add a few stats: hit .270/.370/.500 this year with 19 homeruns in 87 games. For his career: .252/.342/.483.

72709
 
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chawson

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Since my post about Chas McCormick was such a hit, let's try another: Mitch Garver replacing McGuire next year? He's 32, caught 230 innings this year as he came back from injury, and he has been a very good hitter whenever healthy. If he could also back-up at 1B that would be ideal, but he's only played 50 innings there in his career.

EDIT to add a few stats: hit .270/.370/.500 this year with 19 homeruns in 87 games. For his career: .252/.342/.483.

View attachment 72709
Both of these ideas are good. I'd been thinking about the difficulty of finding a RHB Turner-like DH/1B but there's a real shortage of those. Garver as a C/1B/DH is a great fit at the plate and a potentially good fit for the field — though he's only played 14 innings at 1B the last four years.
 

Fishy1

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Nov 10, 2006
6,160
Poor base running, above average offense, above average defense.

I'd be in the camp of non-tendering him if there's no value there. He's gonna get $4.5+ mil that I'd rather seen spent towards someone better.
This doesn't make sense to me at all. Why pay twice as much for Drury when Urias is probably roughly as likely to be as good as him next year given that Drury is now past 30?

There is and has been value there. Urias had a bad year, but he was worth 3 WAR two years in a row. Why does it not matter that he was worth 6 wins over two years before this past year? From age 25-28, Drury couldn't hit his way out of a bar full of passed-out drunks.

Drury is not an above-average defender, by the way. He's been worse or is a wash with Urias. Again, I'd buy him to shore up the middle-infield if the price was cheap enough, but I'm fine with rolling with Reyes, Valdez, and Urias competing for the position. I think someone will emerge from that group that will be roughly as good as Drury, and we won't have to give anything up for it or pay 7 million either. There are better upgrades to be had elsewhere.

You can't buy much 4.5 million, either. We got Duvall, as I mentioned upthread, who was coming off a season not much better than Urias last year, for 7 million.
 
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greenmountains

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 24, 2023
52
The Sox have to address their left handedness and their abysmal defense. Trevor Story is a good start to turn SS from a black hole to a net positive (both defensively and adding right handed hitting). I think he also helps Casas with receiving defense (which was atrocious). But 3rd base doesn't change - Devers is who he is and isn't going anyplace. And I don't think 2nd base changes in an impactful way. But there won't be a lot of help other than Story on the infield.

That leaves the Sox with a need to look at the outfield for defensive improvement (and right handedness). Yoshida (limited), Verdugo (1 year left, head case?), Duran (not instinctual), and Abreu (unknown...is he an average or near average defender) all as left handed hitting. All but Verdugo as below to average'ish at best defenders. I think Duvall needs to come back, because he can play all outfield spots at an average rate and is a RHH. Rafaela should be the everyday starting centerfield - live with his .230 to .250 average and realize his elite defense will cover that. Yoshida isn't going to be traded, he just signed last year as a free agent, he's the left fielder. Therefore it's Verdugo and Duran (and a bunch of the farm kids) to get an impact RHH plus defender rightfielder.

When the Sox look at '25 with Mayer, Teel and Anthony on the roster (or on the cusp), it's all left handed. Story could be pushed to 2nd by then, making Nick Yorke less relevant (at least as a RHH plus defender upgrade). And it won't be until '25 that Yoshida can / could be traded. The Sox just can't trade a 5 year Japanese contract that quickly and expect to compete in the market.

The need now and into the near future is RHH plus defending outfielders. That sure feels like Mike Trout. I understand all the risks. If the Sox can get 90 games out of him in the outfield and 20 to 30 out of him as a DH, his positive WAR and defense plays to the needs the Sox have. They have the money to spend and the prospects to give (it should not be a huge talent drain given the salary and injury risk). Then Verdugo and Duran can be used to get some pitching - I love the notion of selling high on Duran. Abreu and Duvall become outfielders 4a and 4b - late defensive replacements for Yoshida and pitch hitting replacements for Rafaela. Plus they might take some of the load off Trout. In '25 Anthony replaces Trout in right (and Duvall on the roster), Trout moves left.
 
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JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,278
Everyone seems to assume the need for RHH. Is there any empirical evidence that it's important to have a balanced lineup? 70%+ of pitchers are righty, & as long as you aren't chaining together 3 LHH in a row who don't rake against lefties in the heart of the lineup, is it a big deal?

Yes, Adam Duvall is a RHH, but he had a 91 wRC+ against lefties this year...compared to Yoshida's 102 & Duran's 98.

Devers had a 119 wRC+ against lefties & Casas had a 121. It seems to me that getting good players is much more important than getting players who happen to hit right handed.

I don't hate the idea of Trout. He's a great baseball player. But if he was a free agent right now I don't think he'd get close to the 7/$260m he has left on his contract through his age 38 season, so the idea of giving up something of value to pay it all is crazy to me. If the Angels are willing to eat enough of it to make it worthwhile, so be it, but I would be kind of surprised if they can find that happy middle ground.
 

greenmountains

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 24, 2023
52
I think the problem is as currently constructed, the Sox will be chaining together LHH after LHH.

Casas (L)
2nd B (?)
Story (R)
Devers (L)
Wong (R)
Yoshida (L)
Duran (L)
Verdugo (L)
DH (?) - But if it's a platoon of Yoshida, Devers, etc - it doesn't address the RHH question.

Bench - Refsnyder (R), Abreu (L) , Rafaela (R), Backup Catcher (assuming L), Back up utility infielder (??)

That's only two everyday RHH, if the starting CF job is Duran's. It could be 3 with 2nd base, but that doesn't not appear to be anything other than replacement level (regardless of handiness). It could be Rafaela at 2nd, but I think his CF defense trumps anything he can do on the infield.

And it only gets more "problematic" in '25 when the three impactful rookie lefthander hitters come on the sense. All three will vastly improve the defense, but they will all make the team even more left handed. This simply just keeps bringing me back ... how to improve the defense in '24 - acquire a plus defending RHH right fielder.

Is Mookie Betts available? He'd be really helpful if the Sox could get him. Why can't the Sox get players like that?
 
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