Anthony is the prospect I want to trade the least, personally, out of any. Though like I said, I'd certainly advocate moving Bleis, Yorke and more for Gilbert ,and would consider Mayer plus a sweetener as well.
Yes, it's pure free agency now with the posting fee calculated on the contract size:
It’s not going to be a simple as outbid everyone else. I also think the price goes in to goofy territory of $250m+ with opt outs. For that price you have to have a 1A starting pitcher. The expectations are going to be sky high.
Does the field of logical reasoning have a term for when someone invents a debate opponent in their head and then takes them down in order to make themselves feel superior to their imaginary opponent? Because this board (and the whole internet, really) is filled with statements like the above, and it drives me absolutely nuts.
The only real danger with Yamamoto is that the Mets go full frontal Steve Cohen. Aside from that I’m guessing that something like 8/200-220 because there is risk and even the Dodgers are wary of the luxury tax line (or at least being able to reset it before the penalties kick in).
Yamamoto’s frame is probably going to give people pause before going that high. Steve Cohen might, because he doesn’t seem to care about the luxury tax and the effect it has on the Mets’ minor league system. Everyone else does.
Whatever the cost it’s going to be cheaper than emptying the minor league system for a cost controlled arm or landing the next Chris Sale extension.
I’m sure that was part of signing his teammate. Yoshida’s able to ease the transition and sell Yamamoto on playing baseball here.
I really don’’t think this is true. Most of us felt that it was a good signing because Boston won’t ever be in the position they are with Sale, paying $145 million for production years in the past. Some people have been claiming that Devers was a reactionary sign (something I don’t agree with at all), but everyone agrees that he’s a productive hitter. And now that the system is set to start churning out cost controlled players that’s a contract that’s easy to carry, even if they need to move either he or Casas to DH.
I mean you’re basically putting Boston into the dilemma it’s just starting to pull out of in hopes of being the ‘95 Braves. Aside from Teel, Anthony, and Mayer, the rest of the system looks like averagish players. So you’ll need to make a Dombrowski type five or six to one trade. Unless you’re giving up Mayer which might get you four to one. But then the Red Sox are right back where they were with hole in the system and the cream of the potential 1-2 WAR players stripped out of the system.
Possibly I'm really missing something, but I don't at all see the similarities between the Red Sox and the mid/late 1990s Braves. Forgive me if I'm missing your point.
I’m referring to the obsession with Boston amassing three of the top 20 pitchers in baseball as the only way to compete. They have a guy that’s knocking on that list. If they find another they’ll be fine. After that they just need better versions of Pivetta or Crawford.
Bleis injured his shoulder in A Ball. His trade value’s quite low. Bleis and Yorke aren’t getting you your cost controlled #1 starter. Add in one of the big three and another prospect and you might get there. But then you need to rebuild the system again.
I’m sorry, how many teams have #5 starters better than Crawford? The bodies they have are fine for the 4/5 spots.
The problem isn't Crawford exactly. A team can probably deal with a 4.5 inning guy like him if the other 4 starters can give the bullpen a break. But here are the starter IP from the 1-4 spots for the contenders in the league:
Affordable is relative, though. It's not like they can't afford to pay top dollar for the right guy. It's identifying who the right guy(s) is. I think the key to who they target should be age and career workload. Which is what makes Yamamoto such an intriguing target even for the price. He's 25. They could sign him to a 6-7 year deal and still not be tied into paying him for post-prime seasons. That's opposed to most of the rest of the free agent pool who are 30-31, so no matter how much and how long they're paying them, it's for mostly post-prime years.
I mean it glosses over Boston's injury issues but that chart basically means that the contenders are averaging roughly 5.5 inning/start out of the first four sports in their rotations.
This is a much more realistic goal for Boston. Especially given the players beginning to move through the system. Anthony especially will be a big offensive upgrade in the OF (while providing excellent D). But even Teel looks like an above average offensive player with prime defense at the C spot.
Right, and the non-Bello Sox right now are at 5.12 innings/start max, down to 4.5ish (Crawford). That's so many extra innings shifted to the bullpen.
I've been saying I really wouldn't mind getting Gibson this winter if he's cheap, or trading for Miles Mikolas from STL. They both seem to do the fungible innings eater thing we used to get from Pivetta before this season. Though I'm thinking of that as a third starter acquisition, not a second.
To me the issue isn't getting 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball, as much as getting 3 of the top 60, or even top 75.
Same here. Anthony, Mayer, Teel, and possibly Rafaela should be borderline untouchable. Anthony is already destroying AA pitching at 19 and has crazy upside. Plenty of depth in the system to get a trade done without them. I'd be more willing to give up Rafaela for the right value but he's looked great in Boston so far, and his defense and versatility alone make him very valuable to the Sox.
I want Rafaela to be starting opening day but would rather see the Sox include Verdugo with prospects in a 3 way trade for a legit starter, and sign Duvall to a 2 year deal. Roll with an OF of Yoshida/Duvall/Duran/Rafaela, with Yoshida mainly DHing.
Abreu has been working his way into the mix, too. Even if his BABIP is almost as unsustainable as C Note's.
Yeah, the thing is I don't think he's valuable enough in a trade to even upgrade any part of their system anyway. He's not bringing back a blue chip pitching prospect, and we're talking one year of him at this point so what can you really expect to get in return for him at this point? He isn't Mookie Betts so even a Verdugo-Wong-Downs package is stratospherically higher than anything they would be able to get for him, and we know how that has worked out.
I imagine it’d be similar to Teoscar Hernandez. Blue Jays got a pretty good reliever for him - useful, valuable player, but I feel like people here would be disappointed.
Abreu's emergence (SSS I know) could make Verdugo trade-able. And Verdugo's strengths - that you describe - might make him part of a package that brings back a high quality pitcher. They definitely need to get 2 this off season - say a 1 and a 3, if they hope to contend; one on the open market, and maybe one by trade. (Personally, I think they will additionally need a premier LH reliever and RH power bat ...so, kinda 4 players away provided everyone else stays healthy/plays to par).
I agree with this. One of Carrabis' Bloom post-mortems was that Verdugo to the Astros fizzled out. The Astros farm system is among the worst in baseball so the best they can offer without giving back MLB talent are upside prospects who would probably slot into the 15-25 realm in the system (as other guys would need 40 man protection). If what the Sox are looking at are two or three mid-range prospects, I have to imagine a 2-3 WAR OF at below market value for 2024 is more valuable unless they have an obscene amount of faith in that OF core (I don't) or Verdugo is just so toxic that he is addition by removal (which isn't like....impossible).
Sure, I don't disagree that he is treade-able, but he only has one year left before free agency so any team trading for him would need to be a team that is an OF away from contending this upcoming season, and which of those teams would have a high quality pitcher that they would be willing to give up.
Probably more, if we assume that Turner is leaving. Who are the RH power bats under contract, Story and Wong?
I my mind, any return on a deal involving Verdugo will mostly depend on the rest of the Red Sox package.
Yeah, people underrate Rafaela's power. His hands are astonishingly quick to the ball. 21 home runs last year across two levels in 500 at-bats, and 22 in another 500 at-bats this year. He's not disciplined, but he's got pop. In a line-up with plenty of other patient guys, he can probably survive on the pop alone.
Good point. He’s certainly shown some impressive power so far- brightest part of the last few weeks along with Abreu.
It's hard to not be excited about Rafaela and Abreu - two young studs that have serious talent.
Rafaela has a nice floor too, since his defense is a carrying tool. I'd honestly be surprised if he moves anywhere given our defensive issues and lack of RH bats. Splits obviously matter, but you can't run out lineups with 8 LHB.
