Yoshinobu Yamamoto if he gets posted. 25 years old this fall. 1.92 career ERA in NPB. Has pitched against MLB talent in WBC. He’s my #1 Sox FA target. Problem is he’d be many other teams’ as well, if he gets posted.
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2023 Starting Rotation
- Thread starter Rovin Romine
- Start date
I’m all in with this!
Posting team just takes the highest bid yeah? There’s no other things the team/player considers right? Like Ohtani and Masa were both a FA? This is more like the Dice-K situation right?
Paxton isn't a lock to be around next year (probably safer to assume he's gone). And even if the other two could be #1s, what's wrong with having more #1s in the rotation?
There are certainly reasons that they might not acquire a front of the rotation guy for next year (cost for value being #1), but the presence of Bello and Whitlock won't be anywhere near the list.
Yeah, TokyoSox got me in on him and I started following him quite a bit. A really impressive SP. Wish I could see him live like TS but he has such a great demeanor and his stuff is filthy. Would be roughly the same age as Tanaka when he came over in 2014 and I could see him having a similar MLB career with maybe even a little more upside. Would be a great addition to this staff.
I think the previous posts have implied who out of the FAs is going to be worth $30+ mil AAV? It’s a huge commitment to sign one so he better be with as few question marks as possible. This pitching FA crop seems kind of iffy for top end starters.
If Paxton can finish the season healthy and pitching like he has so far, maybe they can resign him at something less than a Urias or Nola would cost. I wouldn’t hate him and Bello at the top of the rotation and then maybe you get lucky with 25 starts from Chris Sale as a bonus next season.
I guess it really comes down to how much the market pumps up these starters.
I've already noted the Paxton free agency issue. If you're saying he should be the acquisition, we're absolutely in agreement. The rest of the comment is spot on. But, the answer to your question is "maybe." Trying to buy a team in free agency is a very risky proposition. The guy (Sale) gets injured or underperforms (Carl Crawford, Rusney Castillo) and you have a lot less financial flexibility, i.e., a big problem. And I don't think that throwing money at a (non)problem is a good I idea. That's simply not the way that WS winners have been constructed over the last decade or so. I believe in building from within, then filling in holes via free agency/trade. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
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IMO, there's really no such thing as a not-iffy signing of a top end starter. Like you say, if you are going to do it, you try to get the one with the fewest question marks on a deal you can live with. That's an extremely small needle to thread, and they certainly might be better off not going down that road.
It would be malpractice to pass on a guy they can thread that needle with just because they already have Bello and Whitlock as "#1 starters". In fact, I would think having those guys actually make it more palatable to take a chance on a $30M ace. They're not left without top-end talent if he implodes, and their low cost helps balance out the outsized expense for a fair portion of the deal.
Brandon Walter is having a season as bad as Murphy was - but without the recent uptick Murphy had in being moved to the pen. The gamelogs don't really show anything promising lately, so much as they indicate less horrific efforts.
https://www.milb.com/player/brandon-walter-687888?stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-mlb&year=2023
Maybe someone can chime in on those recent starts.
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For anyone curious, Mata has been on the IL since May 9 with right shoulder inflammation.
https://www.milb.com/player/brandon-walter-687888?stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-mlb&year=2023
Maybe someone can chime in on those recent starts.
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For anyone curious, Mata has been on the IL since May 9 with right shoulder inflammation.
I believe in that, too... which is why I've felt a lot of the Bloom hate over the last few years is pretty silly.
But it's time to start taking advantage of all the young cost-controlled talent & resetting the luxury tax this year.
They will be $60m+ under the tax after arb awards on their current players & they do not need to stay under the #.
There are very few hitting positions where there is going to be a clear upgrade over either a current major leaguer or a guy on the near horizon who you won't want to block.
They have done a good job with these bargain basement deals when they needed those guys to fill out the roster due to a lack of cost controlled talent, & they should be still looking for the next Whitlock, etc. But trying to acquire a 4th or 5th starter in FA doesn't move the needle at all.
If you don't think the price is right on any needle movers, use your budget to buy out some arb years & the 1st couple years of free agency on some of your guys or take on other people's bad contracts for the right incentive.
But it will be finally time to make impact moves, & that doesn't mean signing the next Richards/Perez/Wacha/Kluber.
Paxton can be the acquisition if the price is right. Or anyone else. But if Paxton gets $20+ for multiple years, I'm not that into it.
Posting team gets a fee based on the total contract; MLB teams all have a 45 day window to negotiate with the player. Previously, the posting team got to decide a flat posting fee, and only teams willing to meet it got to negotiate.
I'm not clear on whether the posting fee counts toward the luxury tax.
Agreed on Paxton. I wouldn't go through the roof with him, but I'm optimistic that we'll be able to get him back. If not, that likely is a problem, depending on how the rest of the staff shapes up. The question (it's much too early to ask) is where to spend. I think it's more likely we'll need help in the bullpen, or in the field, for that matter, as Turner is old (and, yes, a free agent) and Duvall is a free agent as well. So, we'll see. A lot will can and will change between now and the end of the season.
Yeah I’m not opposed to the idea, but I don’t feel the club is to do it this offseason if they don’t really like the market. Maybe they are eyeing guys like Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes the next season. They could delay it one year if they like the potential market for the following offseason better or they want to extend some of their own pre-ARB guys instead in the meantime.
I do agree the time is fast-approaching to open up the checkbook though. We have a decent amount of cost-controlled major league talent in place so the time to take advantage is the next 3-4 years.
If the guy they want (Yamamoto?) is available this offseason, they should jump at the chance, knowing that if they go over the tax threshold in 2024, they will have Sale's deal off the books in 2025, which would give them a chance to get back under if they want.
Sale
Paxton
Whitlock
Bello
Yamamoto
Jansen
Martin
Schreiber
Houck
Winck
Crawford
Murphy
Mills/Guerrero/Fernandez/Kelly/Bernardino/etc.
Could easily trade Winck, Crawford or Houck for the right package. It's impressive how mediocre the FA hitters are, so let's just do this for now...
C Wong
1B Casas
2B Valdez
SS Story
3B Devers
LF Bader
CF Duran
RF Verdugo
DH Yoshida
BN McGuire
BN Refsnyder
BN Arroyo
BN Turner
Add Harrison Bader, bring back Turner to play a similar role as this year...& I think we're still like $10m under the tax which we have no real reason to stay under this year?
Would also love to see Rafaela be a rich man's Hernandez next year & play ++ defense in CF & at SS.
Maybe just bring me Ohtani...
Personally, I want Houck and Crawford in the rotation until they prove me wrong (I don't see Sale being any healthier next year). Not much of a Bader fan, either, but I'm open to other options. I really wish Bloom would have drafted a corner outfielder. The lineup could use some more power.
We're paying Sale either way, & as long as he's healthy, he's one of our best pitchers. If you want Houck & Crawford in the rotation, why do you want to sign a bottom end of the rotation starter?
Houck has a lot to prove over the rest of the season & I hope he does. His stuff plays. Crawford probably doesn't have the stuff to be someone we really want to rely on in the rotation & should always be more of a depth piece heading into the season. But his chase rates have been ridiculous, so who knows?
I had put Ian Happ in there before I realized he had signed an extension. Bader is pretty good, but I'm open to other ways to spend $.
Should probably start a way too early off season thread & not worry about it in the '23 SP thread, though.
I don't want a bottom of the rotation type. I want an inexpensive gamble, like Wacha, for rotation depth. You can never have enough starters. And, sure, Sale is very good when healthy...I just wouldn't count on him being healthy for more than a few starts.
Yes, Houck has a lot to prove. Like I said, though, for me Houck and Crawford are there until they prove me wrong. Then I'll start talking about adding quality starters. I really like Crawford's stuff, too, so I see potential as a mid-rotation guy. I love his deceptive delivery.
I haven't even started looking at potential free agents, yet, so I can't talk about other options in the OF. It's way too early to speculate, but I'm open to the Sox exploring all their options for a corner outfielder, barring any unforeseen changes.
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OK guys. This is getting pretty far afield of the 2023 rotation. Why not just start another thread on what free-agent hitters (etc.) you think the Sox should be doing in the 2024 off-season?
So do we let Paxton walk after this year like Wacha? Or do we consider giving him a deal? He's been fantastic.
I was there for his no hitter September 1st IIRC because it was moving day for everyone in Boston. Took 3 friends and one left early. Then a few weeks later I saw Carlos Zambrano throw a no hitter for the Cubs at a home game in Milwaukee. Was two pretty insane experiences
edit: broken brain. It was the next year in September I saw the Zambrano no hitter. In between Lester threw one
Yeah, we give Paxton the QO which would be worth around $20m. It's expensive for sure but less risky than a long-term deal. I think he accepts because who's giving up a second round pick to sign him? Boras has gotten older pitchers some nice deals lately but their track records were completely different. Any long term deal starts with his age 35 season, IMO very unlikely that anyone offers more than 2 years.
Bello's velocity (sinker, 4-seamer and changeup) started the year 1mph off of last year's and has trended down another 0.5-1mph. Concerning? The results are good but it's something to watch out for. Last year he was averaging 96-96.5mph on his sinker, this year he started off 95 and is now down to 94.5. xWOBA on his sinker has gone from .315 to to .347. It sucks but it looks like his arm hasn't fully recovered from the elbow injury.
Now we're buying a TEAM? I thought the discussion being had was about a single #1 type pitcher. I liked the Paxton signing last year and I'm thrilled with how he's pitched thus far, but as to the comment on Sale, James Paxton says hello.
Assuming he remains reasonably close to his production level, they could also say "Hey we're going to QO you, but what about something like 2/38?" Maybe a mutual option for his 2nd year. He may not be able to get more than 2 on the open market, unless the Mets keep Mets'ing.
Are these meaningful differences? Feels like tying it to arm health is just one possible explanation. Maybe he altered his grip slightly for better command or movement?
Without any links or reason to think it’s a problem, I’m not willing to be that negative. Bello is going to be an ace
I don't know how to organize baseballstatistics.... and it's cherry picking (in a way)... but what would happen if you remove Pivetta and Kluber from that?
Well, that certainly doesn't hurt it. The other 6 starters (Sale/Paxton/Houck/Bello/Crawford/Whitlock) all have xFIPs below 4.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0
The xFIP really jumps out. Defense is killing the pitching staff.
Re: HR/FB, is that 29th highest (bad) or 29th lowest (good)?
Over the last month:
ERA: 6th
ERA-: 5th
WHIP: 4th
FIP: 1st
xFIP: 1st
HR/FB: 11th
K%: 4th
BB%: 6th
K-BB%: 3rd
BABIP: 15th
fWAR: 3rd
IP: 22nd
It's not just negative, it's hugely negligent to put him out there if he's at all compromised. I'm betting he's fine. He may be getting tired as the season goes on. That would be pretty normal.
Incredible in that the team has played pretty crap baseball during the past month!
But the pitching improvement lines up with Pivetta and Kluber being bounced. Sale too, but that's more correlation, no causation.
Yeah, firing Kiké from the shortstop job had to happen. Reyes looks terrific out there. Duran is making plays. The ERA and FIP should both get better (as they already were).
Also, having Kike and Valdez out there at the same time was brutal. Arroyo's no gold-glover, but he's fine at 2nd.
In the context of discussing the future of the rotation I think it's a fair question. Considering that neither is currently in the rotation and doesn't seem likely to be there next season excluding them seems completely reasonable.
Ugh. Thats gotta be like 8 weeks. Hopefully he can throw a little so his return isn't like an appearance in early March.
It sounds like Houck will be out until August (or later). This is a chance for the front office to demonstrate whether they believe this team can contend or not. Sale won't be back anytime soon and Kluber/Pivetta have both shown they cannot be counted on in the rotation. Will the Sox trade for a starter or just go with what they have? I don't expect them to trade for a starter and this team does not have enough pitching to hold this together for 2+ months with what they have right now. This mini run has been nice, but this is a pretty bad loss for the team because the drop-off from Houck to Kluber or Pivetta is significant.
They used to joke about Tanner being the right-handed version of Chris Sale, and now they have both had bones broken by comebackers off Yankees bats.
I was hoping Drohan would have a great outing today & get the slot, but he doesn't seem ready.
View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1671311653202284545
Speier says Bassitt came back from a similar surgery in a month.
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1671290889572941824
Maybe it's time to stretch out Winck, perhaps piggybacking him with the inimitable Chris Murphy until he's ready for full starts?
View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1671311653202284545
Speier says Bassitt came back from a similar surgery in a month.
View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1671290889572941824
Maybe it's time to stretch out Winck, perhaps piggybacking him with the inimitable Chris Murphy until he's ready for full starts?
So it's likely that he moves to the 60 day IL if that hasn't been done already. That would free up a 40 man spot, so the question is how do they fill it? Is there a decent package of cost controlled guys outside of the guys that the Sox have on the horizon who might return a decent back of the rotation type? If you're looking for more, you gotta give to get.