I don’t think it has to be a pre-2018 Chris Sale type but a good no. 3 type with health and upside that can be plugged in this season and next. Someone closer to an Eovaldi when he was traded for.
He's going to cost a boatload soon, and it they aren't going to pay that, they'll undoubtedly at least see what kind of haul they could get for him.Why would a team 1.5 games out of the division lead trade their best starter?
To sidestep the Yorke thing, a starter at the deadline will give you 10 starts or so before the season's over. So getting one really depends on what your #5 is doing at the time. Replacing a .200 WP guy with an .800 WP can be huge - or even just upgrading to slightly better than average. But who would be our #5, and would an upgrade of X wins make a difference?I’ve advocated for dealing Yorke (A’s centerpiece of a package with Dalbec and a younger flier) to add a starting pitcher at the deadline if the Sox are still competitive and nipping at the heels of the WC.
There’s enough MI talent to step in (Meidroth, Romero, Lugo, Valdez, Paulinho, Bonaci). Bloom needs to cash in on some of his prospects. Obviously it’s have to be someone with 2 years at least remaining.
*Ducking shoes being hurled by everyone*
They also have a surplus of elite young SP and a lineup that needs help. Gavin Williams is stuck in AAA because there is no spot for him in Cleveland.He's going to cost a boatload soon, and it they aren't going to pay that, they'll undoubtedly at least see what kind of haul they could get for him.
Maybe. Urias could definitely be a bounce back candidate to sign at less than insane levels. But IMO they should look into an extension for Verdugo (which shouldn't affect a FA pitcher budget) and still keep the budget at a point looking to do Braves style long-term contracts for guys like Casas, Wong, Mayer, etc... buying out arb years.I don't see the trade route as the best opportunity for value, given that the Sox are trying to reload the farm system and, for once, have space to give out a big free agent contract. Just wait til November and sign Urias (whose stock is conveniently dropping a bit).
The big If:The trade deadline is seven weeks away, and the past month of disappointing baseball — injuries, losing streaks, and a fall to .500 — has, indeed, led the Red Sox to begin checking the market for potential moves.
But if they’re going to be sellers, it won’t be any time soon.
“No,” general manager Brian O’Halloran said. “We’re looking to improve our team.”
Before Sunday’s 3-2 win against the Yankees, both O’Halloran and manager Alex Cora acknowledged that the Red Sox have been actively shopping for pitching upgrades, though it’s unclear whether anything of substance is close to coming together.
“There have been some conversations,” O’Halloran said. “Obviously, they’ve led to some smaller deals, but you never know when you’re going to line up on something small or big, and obviously most of the big deals tend to get done closer to the deadline. But that doesn’t mean something couldn’t get done before then if it lines up.”
We need more arms just to eat innings:“With the way we’re pitching (lately), if we stay consistent with this, we’re going to make a run,” Cora said.
If the next month looks like this past one (11-17) this would all presumably change.With Sale’s return uncertain, Pivetta now an important part of the depleted bullpen, 37-year-old Kluber struggling to maintain any sort of productivity, and Triple A offering no obvious alternatives — the Red Sox might need reinforcements simply to carry the innings workload... The current Red Sox bullpen is half-filled by a pair of waiver claims, a struggling Kluber, and a pitcher still waiting to make his big league debut (Joe Jacques). That, too, could be an area worthy of addition if the Red Sox can avoid going into sell mode in the next month.
Reading those quotes, it's not hard to see them setting themselves up for a repeat of last year's trade deadline ... false hope by a June run, hanging around just close enough through July, then a mixed bag at the deadline.As of today, they aren't looking to sell but are looking to add pitching:
https://theathletic.com/4602074/2023/06/11/red-sox-not-selling-yet/
His velocity was definitely lower when he faced the Sox last week than I remember it being other years.The problem with a trade for a pitcher now is that, depending on how the next 6 weeks go, other teams might be likely to value the 2023 portion of whoever we would acquire than the Sox would.
Also, to the people advocating for Shane Bieber, his K/9 number for the past 4 years:
14.2
12.5
8.9
6.6
I'd hold onto Young at least until I figure out who he is.Where does this team need to be at the trade deadline for this incredibly thin skinned front office to accept that this isn’t a championship level team and a sell off would be the right way to go. I sense they know through declining attendance and TV viewership that the masses are not happy with the current direction of the franchise. If they were say 5 games under and 8-9 games out of the last wildcard would they do the right thing and try to offload the spare parts, which would or could involve players such as
Duval
Turner
Kluber
Arroyo
Kike
Dugo
Paxton
Maybe Young
Maybe Jansen
Pivetta
or would the ownership not like the “appearance” of further reducing the payroll, even though it may be in the teams best interest?
The writer is Chad Jennings, not FinnAs of today, they aren't looking to sell but are looking to add pitching:
https://theathletic.com/4602074/2023/06/11/red-sox-not-selling-yet/
No specific potential names are mentioned, by O'Halloran (obviously) nor speculatively by Chad Finn the writer::
They can trade all of those guys & still maintain or increase their payroll, & probably would as part of a plan to get the best prospects in return back that they can.Where does this team need to be at the trade deadline for this incredibly thin skinned front office to accept that this isn’t a championship level team and a sell off would be the right way to go. I sense they know through declining attendance and TV viewership that the masses are not happy with the current direction of the franchise. If they were say 5 games under and 8-9 games out of the last wildcard would they do the right thing and try to offload the spare parts, which would or could involve players such as
Duval
Turner
Kluber
Arroyo
Kike
Dugo
Paxton
Maybe Young
Maybe Jansen
Pivetta
or would the ownership not like the “appearance” of further reducing the payroll, even though it may be in the teams best interest?
You are correct, I edited.The writer is Chad Jennings, not Finn
I was racking my brain over this one.I'd hold onto Young at least until I figure out who he is.
Why not, this year is like a repeat of last year anyway. Like you said, it's like Wile E. Coyote starring in "Groundhog Day."Reading those quotes, it's not hard to see them setting themselves up for a repeat of last year's trade deadline ... false hope by a June run, hanging around just close enough through July, then a mixed bag at the deadline.
An Edro reunion is enticing given his improved control this year. He's not as good as his ERA (his FIP and xERA ar about a full run higher), but even if he regresses to those, he's still a low-mid 3s ERA type starter which is what you were hoping Sale could give you if he was healthy. He might not cost too much either since he has a player opt-out after this year if he wants it (which he might if he keeps this up).Cora's right, though. What if the last turn through the rotation is predictive of how Paxton/Bello/Houck/Whitlock are going to pitch moving forward? They looked like a completely different team this weekend. With Sale down, they do need another top-end starter. Maybe a reunion with old friend E-Rod?
I actually think that up-and-down is a very likely outcome, and not a terrible one, especially if there is more up than down. It likely won't translate into playoffs this year, but it should give the Sox a very good idea about potential rotation building blocks for '24 and beyond.Why not, this year is like a repeat of last year anyway. Like you said, it's like Wile E. Coyote starring in "Groundhog Day."
I don't think a rotation of Paxton and 4 inexperienced young guys is going to be competitive in theEuropean Super Leaguethis year's AL East. They have looked good lately (against the Judge-less Yankees playing a veritable "Who's That" of outfielders) but I'd expect them to be very up-and-down for the rest of the year.
I hope to be wrong about that though.
Per Fangraphs, in the past 14 days Red Sox starters are 3rd in MLB for WAR, 3rd in FIP, 6th in XFIP. (And this includes the Dermody start)We've gotten some very good starts this week from Paxton, Houck, Whitlock, Bello.
The likelier scenario is that his hamstring heals and he's effective again, and he's #2 on the market after only Otani. He's 26 so it's a rare case of not paying for past performance.Maybe. Urias could definitely be a bounce back candidate to sign at less than insane levels. But IMO they should look into an extension for Verdugo (which shouldn't affect a FA pitcher budget) and still keep the budget at a point looking to do Braves style long-term contracts for guys like Casas, Wong, Mayer, etc... buying out arb years.
Based on tonight's effort, I don't think so.I know that they don't have any depth in the bullpen, but I wonder if that guy is actually Pivetta.
Well I guess that's settled thenBased on tonight's effort, I don't think so.
I guess we won't say too much until we get a full(ish) season of data, but are we sure Paxton isn't the ace we need to sign for next year? I know people will chime in, or at least be thinking, that guy's always hurt. But what if he isn't?Ugly loss aside, another strong outing from Paxton.
Through 6 starts:
3.09 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 3.09 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 44/10 K/BB, 33.1% K%, 7.5% BB%
His Four Seam is averaging 96.1 mph, his highest since 2016.
Paxton's been terrific. It's just that every time he goes out there, you wonderI guess we won't say too much until we get a full(ish) season of data, but are we sure Paxton isn't the ace we need to sign for next year? I know people will chime in, or at least be thinking, that guy's always hurt. But what if he isn't?
He's been great.I guess we won't say too much until we get a full(ish) season of data, but are we sure Paxton isn't the ace we need to sign for next year? I know people will chime in, or at least be thinking, that guy's always hurt. But what if he isn't?
Yeah, well apart from TJ (I know, Mrs. Lincoln) he's been steadily OK but with little things costing him starts. Never made 30 in a season and not on pace to now. I suspect his future is more like his run from 2016-19, missing a month here or there, rather than another catastrophic injury since those are actually pretty rare and the one he had is fixed up nicely for a while. Anyway, yeah, Wacha money... noting that Wacha is 3 years younger but a 101 career ERA+, while Paxton is 34 and has a lifetime 115 and better peripherals across the board.He's been great.
If Bello, Houck, Crawford and Whitlock all round into shape and seem healthy, Paxton seems like a good guy to throw Wacha/Eovaldi money at and hope he stays healthy. I'd note that Crawford and Whitlock have exceptional K/BB ratios right now, Bello has obviously been very good, and peripherals for Houck have been good as well.
The nature of pitching of course is the guy who seemed healthy last year might be next years rotator cuff surgery candidate.
Winckowski hasn't pitched since 2 innings Wednesday. It would probably take a couple times through the rotation to get him stretched back out.I also think Kluber has to start in Minnesota and formally reinserted into rotation - no other bodies.
People were discussing that as an option a week ago & haven't heard anything about improved health, so seems like a legit option.Imagine you could get Drohan on the 40-man by moving Bleier to the 60 day, right?
This seems right. They shouldn't need anyone until Thursday.Why do we need a pitcher tomorrow? Wouldn’t tomorrow be Paxton on normal rest, so it should just be bello then Paxton no?
That’s what I would think, but the tweet above says Paxton Monday which I can’t figure outThis seems right. They shouldn't need anyone until Thursday.
Not a bad idea to give him an extra day every now and then.That’s what I would think, but the tweet above says Paxton Monday which I can’t figure out
Honestly, the only reason I'd rather not, is that it takes a righty power arm out of late game situations in both games.Not a bad idea to give him an extra day every now and then.
I mean, what's wrong with giving Pivetta the start as an opener in Game 1? It might motivate him
The way the Yankees are hitting right now, I'm not sure that mattersHonestly, the only reason I'd rather not, is that it takes a righty power arm out of late game situations in both games.
I don’t mind giving him an extra day, it was just being stated as a certainty and I was wondering if a reason had been given. Using the extra roster spot for the double header for a spot starter makes sense thoughNot a bad idea to give him an extra day every now and then.
I mean, what's wrong with giving Pivetta the start as an opener in Game 1? It might motivate him