2023 Starting Rotation

Petagine in a Bottle

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Why not just give Murphy a shot? He has pitched pretty well in his first few big league outings. It’s probably too early to engage the trade market, and moving Winckowski would really weaken the pen. Murphy or Kluber seem like the most realistic options at this point.
 

JM3

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Why not just give Murphy a shot? He has pitched pretty well in his first few big league outings. It’s probably too early to engage the trade market, and moving Winckowski would really weaken the pen. Murphy or Kluber seem like the most realistic options at this point.
He seems to be doing a lot better since mostly becoming a 2-pitch pitcher who throws harder in the shorter stints. They don't seem to want to mess with this, even when he's in Worcester.

View: https://twitter.com/IanCundall/status/1670522946119409664
 

Yelling At Clouds

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I'm curious who we'd target as a starter in a trade. Flaherty or Montgomery from STL? Giolito from CWS? Who else is even selling that has starters you'd actually want? Seems like potentially a huge seller's market.
Names I've seen rumored include Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, and Old Man Zack Greinke. Amusingly, now that Pittsburgh is falling out of contention, there's a chance they could bring back Rich Hill yet again. I hesitate to bring this up, but I've read some "Maybe Shane Bieber??" rumors here and there. Decide for yourselves how desirable any of those would be in trade.

To clarify, I mean "rumored to be available in trade" and not anything Boston-specific.
 

nvalvo

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I’ve seen Marcus Stroman pitch in person twice this year, and he looks amazing. He should cost a haul, however.

I’d be more interested in a Rodriguez reunion if he’s interested (and healthy). The weird contract situation (pending opt out) should make it tricky to trade him, so I expect Detroit to get a more moderate return.

Edited to add that I’m not at all surewe should be buying players who can opt out at season’s end.
 

moondog80

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I’ve seen Marcus Stroman pitch in person twice this year, and he looks amazing. He should cost a haul, however.

I’d be more interested in a Rodriguez reunion if he’s interested (and healthy). The weird contract situation (pending opt out) should make it tricky to trade him, so I expect Detroit to get a more moderate return.

Edited to add that I’m not at all surewe should be buying players who can opt out at season’s end.
Stroman also can opt out, so the price might not be crazy.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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This could be a bad idea, but what about a subsidized Steven Matz? He’s been linked to the Sox in the past. He’s 0-7 with a 5.49 ERA but looks likes been pretty unlucky, which seems to be the case with most of the Cards staff. Signed for 2/$25 after this. Guess it would depend on what the scouts think and how desperate St. Louis may be to dump him.

Kluber pitching himself out of consideration tonight, perhaps.
 

chrisfont9

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Have you guys looked at the schedule? If Houck were to come back in a month it's possible he could miss as little as 3-4 starts. They have the next two mondays off, then the AS break, then 6 games, day off, three more, day off, two more, day off -- I wouldn't go crazy trying to fill that spot. IF he really can be back by late July.
 

grimshaw

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Names I've seen rumored include Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcus Stroman, and Old Man Zack Greinke. Amusingly, now that Pittsburgh is falling out of contention, there's a chance they could bring back Rich Hill yet again. I hesitate to bring this up, but I've read some "Maybe Shane Bieber??" rumors here and there. Decide for yourselves how desirable any of those would be in trade.

To clarify, I mean "rumored to be available in trade" and not anything Boston-specific.
The Cubs have been playing very well lately, and on the fringes of the playoff hunt. That central is a terrible division right now. I'd be surprised if Stroman was available.
 

Benj4ever

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Why not just give Murphy a shot? He has pitched pretty well in his first few big league outings. It’s probably too early to engage the trade market, and moving Winckowski would really weaken the pen. Murphy or Kluber seem like the most realistic options at this point.
I could see Winck to the rotation with Murphy taking his spot in the pen.
 

RS2004foreever

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Per fangraphs, since May 1
Boston Starting Pitching
ERA: 4.09 (9th)
xFIP 3.79 (3rd in baseball)

I assume Pivetta goes back to the rotation, and I wonder if Wink is in the running for starting while Houck is out.

Since everything devolves into a discussion about Bloom, at this point Bloom has been proven right about how good Bello and Whitlock are. He also won a pretty significant gamble when it comes to Paxton.
Sale - arguably predictably - got hurt. Pivetta's regression was arguably a surprise (he was a decent 5th starter) and Bloom completely missed on Kluber. This brings up Wacha - whose advanced metrics suggested would regress significantly and Eovaldi (who has made more than 28 starts twice in his career). Ironically the biggest miss - and the rotation feels one starter short - is the one no one talks about. Eflin has a WHIP under 1 and is 4 years younger than Eovaldi.

A rotation that looks like this in retrospect looks damn good:
Paxton
Bello
Whitlock
Eflin/Eovalida/Wach
Pivetta/Houck
 
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chrisfont9

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Per fangraphs, since May 1
Boston Starting Pitching
ERA: 4.09 (9th)
xFIP 3.79 (3rd in baseball)

I assume Pivetta goes back to the rotation, and I wonder if Wink is in the running for starting while Houck is out.

Since everything devolves into a discussion about Bloom, at this point Bloom has been proven right about how good Bello and Whitlock are. He also won a pretty significant gamble when it comes to Paxton.
Sale - arguably predictably - got hurt. Pivetta's regression was arguably a surprise (he was a decent 5th starter) and Bloom completely missed on Kluber. This brings up Wacha - whose advanced metrics suggested would regress significantly and Eovaldi (who has made more than 28 starts twice in his career). Ironically the biggest miss - and the rotation feels one starter short - is the one no one talks about. Eflin has a WHIP under 1 and is 4 years younger than Eovaldi.

A rotation that looks like this in retrospect looks damn good:
Paxton
Bello
Whitlock
Eflin/Eovalida/Wach
Pivetta/Houck
Apparently Eovaldi's 4-seam velo tanked last night so it may be time to get bearish on his next month or so.
 

JM3

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Per fangraphs, since May 1
Boston Starting Pitching
ERA: 4.09 (9th)
xFIP 3.79 (3rd in baseball)

I assume Pivetta goes back to the rotation, and I wonder if Wink is in the running for starting while Houck is out.

Since everything devolves into a discussion about Bloom, at this point Bloom has been proven right about how good Bello and Whitlock are. He also won a pretty significant gamble when it comes to Paxton.
Sale - arguably predictably - got hurt. Pivetta's regression was arguably a surprise (he was a decent 5th starter) and Bloom completely missed on Kluber. This brings up Wacha - whose advanced metrics suggested would regress significantly and Eovaldi (who has made more than 28 starts twice in his career). Ironically the biggest miss - and the rotation feels one starter short - is the one no one talks about. Eflin has a WHIP under 1 and is 4 years younger than Eovaldi.

A rotation that looks like this in retrospect looks damn good:
Paxton
Bello
Whitlock
Eflin/Eovalida/Wach
Pivetta/Houck
Yeah, if we were given a chance to up our offer on Eflin after the Rays matched & we didn't, that was probably a bad choice.

I spent all off season explaining why Pivetta was going to regress & be even worse this year, so I'm going to go ahead & call that not surprising.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think the ship has sailed on Winckowski starting, at least for this year. His season high pitch count is 51 and that was in April. It's been a month since he threw as many as 40 pitches in a game. To ramp him up to starter levels would probably take 4-5 turns through the rotation, and leave a hole in the back end of the pen as well. If we're talking about trying to cover Houck's absence, by the time Winckowski is throwing real starter pitch counts, Houck might be back.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think the ship has sailed on Winckowski starting, at least for this year. His season high pitch count is 51 and that was in April. It's been a month since he threw as many as 40 pitches in a game. To ramp him up to starter levels would probably take 4-5 turns through the rotation, and leave a hole in the back end of the pen as well. If we're talking about trying to cover Houck's absence, by the time Winckowski is throwing real starter pitch counts, Houck might be back.
Yeah, a bullpen game is the likely the answer until Houck returns on a deadline deal is swung
 

JM3

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I think the ship has sailed on Winckowski starting, at least for this year. His season high pitch count is 51 and that was in April. It's been a month since he threw as many as 40 pitches in a game. To ramp him up to starter levels would probably take 4-5 turns through the rotation, and leave a hole in the back end of the pen as well. If we're talking about trying to cover Houck's absence, by the time Winckowski is throwing real starter pitch counts, Houck might be back.
When is Schreiber coming back?

Because Winck + Murphy is a fine combo for 5-6 now & up to 8 or 9 in a few turns. But there is a big hole or 2 in the pen already.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yeah, a bullpen game is the likely the answer until Houck returns on a deadline deal is swung
I can see Pivetta going back to the rotation, similarly to how Crawford just did. He's barely a month removed from being a starter throwing 90+ pitches, so it would probably only takes a couple turns to get his pitch count back up (he threw 43 on Sunday so he's not that far off).

If they're going the bullpen route, chances are he'd be involved anyway. Might as well see if they can maybe avoid planned bullpen games.
 

Benj4ever

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When is Schreiber coming back?

Because Winck + Murphy is a fine combo for 5-6 now & up to 8 or 9 in a few turns. But there is a big hole or 2 in the pen already.
...and if you're thinking "bullpen game" already, Winck and Murphy is a good choice, especially since it gives you more information on the feasibility of Winck joining the rotation in the long term.
 

YTF

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Yeah, a bullpen game is the likely the answer until Houck returns on a deadline deal is swung
In theory a bullpen game doesn't sound bad for a couple of times through the order. The biggest issue I see is Kluber being part of the pen. He's completely unreliable and even if he's not a part of the pen game he's going to be regrettably pressed into action at times when others who are seen as long guys are unavailable due to scheduled usage.
 

Benj4ever

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In theory a bullpen game doesn't sound bad for a couple of times through the order. The biggest issue I see is Kluber being part of the pen. He's completely unreliable and even if he's not a part of the pen game he's going to be regrettably pressed into action at times when others who are seen as long guys are unavailable due to scheduled usage.
I'd check into Rich Hill's availability. If he can be had for a mid-level prospect, I'd be all over that.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'd check into Rich Hill's availability. If he can be had for a mid-level prospect, I'd be all over that.
He's not going to be available right now, which is when the Sox need a starter. The Pirates are four games out of first place. They're not trading their #3 starter with 90 games to go.
 

simplicio

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Finding actual sellers (with players you'd want to buy) may be tough. So much of the suck is concentrated in the AL central that even the White Sox (currently 9 games out of the wild card) could have a legitimate shot at the division lead (4.5 back) with a hot week.

Then the real bottom dwellers (OAK, KC, COL, WSH) just don't have much in the way talent to sell off.

Feels like St Louis is going to need more front office staff cause there are about to be 25 teams banging on their door.
 

Benj4ever

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We aren't adding a name starter and then getting back Houck and Sale and sending this guy we just invested in to the pen. Crawford looks like he's a real rotation piece already. If there's someone available for next to nothing, fine, but that's almost certainly not the case.
I was thinking long relief for Hill. If(?) the White Sox would consider selling, Lance Lynn is another possibility for LR.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I was thinking long relief for Hill. If(?) the White Sox would consider selling, Lance Lynn is another possibility for LR.
Trade for other teams' starters to move to the bullpen? Is that how Chaim argues for a lower price tag? "No Ben, we want Rich to work out of our bullpen. We'd give you Nick Yorke if he was going into our rotation but since we're not, I'm going to have to insist you take Fitzy instead."
 

Benj4ever

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Trade for other teams' starters to move to the bullpen? Is that how Chaim argues for a lower price tag? "No Ben, we want Rich to work out of our bullpen. We'd give you Nick Yorke if he was going into our rotation but since we're not, I'm going to have to insist you take Fitzy instead."
No one is giving up Nick Yorke for Rich Hill. I said I'd consider giving up a mid-level prospect for the latter. Someone ranked between 15-30. A 43-year-old pitcher on a losing team who's having a meh season doesn't have much value. He'd be a decent upgrade for the Sox pen, though.
 

LogansDad

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No one is giving up Nick Yorke for Rich Hill. I said I'd consider giving up a mid-level prospect for the latter. Someone ranked between 15-30. A 43-year-old pitcher on a losing team who's having a meh season doesn't have much value. He'd be a decent upgrade for the Sox pen, though.
Honest question: Who does he replace in the bullpen, and why is giving up any kind of prospect for a "43 year old having a meh season" a better option than, say, Ryan Sherriff, or Andrew Politi, or Oddanier Mosqueda, or Rio Gomez, if it comes to that?
 

chrisfont9

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Honest question: Who does he replace in the bullpen, and why is giving up any kind of prospect for a "43 year old having a meh season" a better option than, say, Ryan Sherriff, or Andrew Politi, or Oddanier Mosqueda, or Rio Gomez, if it comes to that?
I think you DFA Kluber in that scenario. But I don't think they give up an asset to go from Kluber to Rich Hill.
 

joe dokes

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I don't see Bloom giving up any prospect with a reasonable chance at playing in the majors for someone who isn't going to be better than the 4th best starter. Nor do I think he should. *That* would be inconsistent with the team's direction. Given that they have Pivetta and probably Murphy by the weekend, and that Winckowski can pitch more than 1 inning in relief, I think they'll get by with a bullpen game every 5th day at least until the ASB. The occasional bullpen game is part of the variance that comes with this year's team. Sale getting hurt was one knock; Kluber and Pivetta sucking were 2 more; then Houck really messed things up. Pivetta has at least been useful lately, but "losing" 4 starting pitchers rips the team at the seams.
 

LogansDad

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I think you DFA Kluber in that scenario. But I don't think they give up an asset to go from Kluber to Rich Hill.
I am in violent agreement, and that was basically my point. There is zero reason for this team to trade for Rich Hill. None.

If they are trading future assets this season it is going to be for an actual upgrade, probably a 2/3 starter type or, if Story has a setback, a big middle infield upgrade. They are 1.5 out of the Wild Card and there is no reason for them to make a panic move just to appease fans. The team is in a good spot right now.
 

chrisfont9

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I dont see Bloom giving up any prospect with a reasonable chance at playing in the majors for someone who isn't going to be better than the 4th best starter. *That* would be inconsistent with the team's direction. Given that they have Pivetta and probably Murphy by the weekend, and that Winckowski can pitch more than 1 inning in relief, I think they'll get by with a bullpen game every 5th day at least until the ASB.
Right, which is two starts. Maybe three. Then see where guys are at.
 

Benj4ever

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Honest question: Who does he replace in the bullpen, and why is giving up any kind of prospect for a "43 year old having a meh season" a better option than, say, Ryan Sherriff, or Andrew Politi, or Oddanier Mosqueda, or Rio Gomez, if it comes to that?
He replaces Kluber in that situation. As pointed out earlier, moving Winck to the rotation for an undetermined amount of time leaves a hole at long reliever. I thought about Sherriff, but he seems to be strictly a short reliever. From his history, it looks like you could move Politi to long relief, but he's an unproven commodity. Mosqueda has a WHIP of 1.55 at Worchester, so that's a pass for me. Rio Gomez looks like a reach.

I think it all comes down to how badly you want another long reliever. If you think Pivetta is enough, then you can go with Sherriff and wait for Schreiber to come back.
 
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RS2004foreever

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I was not impressed with Crawford last year. But
2022: ERA 5.47, xFIP 4.33
2023 ERA 3.74, xFIP 3.76
Those are the numbers of at LEAST of a serviceable 4/5 starter.

If that is true then the Red Sox are looking to find pitching for 4-5 starts (given the All-Star break) until Houck comes back.
I have to be honest - I didn't think Crawford was a factor.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He replaces Kluber in that situation. As pointed out earlier, moving Winck to the rotation for an undetermined amount of time leaves a hole at long reliever. I thought about Sherriff, but he seems to be strictly a short reliever. From his history, it looks like you could move Politi to long relief, but he's an unproven commodity. Mosqueda has a WHIP of 1.55 at Worchester, so that's a pass for me. Rio Gomez looks like a reach.

I think it all comes down to how badly you want another long reliever. If you think Pivetta is enough, then you can go Sherriff and wait for Schreiber to come back.
Winckowski isn't really a long reliever at this point. He's a short reliever. He's not moving to the rotation.
 

Benj4ever

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Right, which is two starts. Maybe three. Then see where guys are at.
I don't see Bloom giving up any prospect with a reasonable chance at playing in the majors for someone who isn't going to be better than the 4th best starter. Nor do I think he should. *That* would be inconsistent with the team's direction. Given that they have Pivetta and probably Murphy by the weekend, and that Winckowski can pitch more than 1 inning in relief, I think they'll get by with a bullpen game every 5th day at least until the ASB. The occasional bullpen game is part of the variance that comes with this year's team. Sale getting hurt was one knock; Kluber and Pivetta sucking were 2 more; then Houck really messed things up. Pivetta has at least been useful lately, but "losing" 4 starting pitchers rips the team at the seams.
That's a valid concern.

And, yeah, the whole injury bug has really stretched the team's depth, but Bello, Pax (whom next to no one counted on this year), and Whit have really stepped forward. The only thing I'd add is that I'd have Winck before Murphy, replacing Pivetta. Pivetta is a known commodity, whereas Winck flashes potential.
 

joe dokes

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Winckowski isn't really a long reliever at this point. He's a short reliever. He's not moving to the rotation.
Agree with this. He's not going anywhere. Once the season got going, it seemed pretty clear to me that one of Winckowski or Crawford was always going to stay in the bullpen. Winckowski also seems to have shown the ability to bounce back for a 2nd day.
 

Benj4ever

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I was not impressed with Crawford last year. But
2022: ERA 5.47, xFIP 4.33
2023 ERA 3.74, xFIP 3.76
Those are the numbers of at LEAST of a serviceable 4/5 starter.

If that is true then the Red Sox are looking to find pitching for 4-5 starts (given the All-Star break) until Houck comes back.
I have to be honest - I didn't think Crawford was a factor.
Crawford flashed promise last year, but was terribly inconsistent. What I really liked about his performance last night was that even though he didn't have his good stuff (the Twins were hitting line drives left and right), he excelled pitching with runners in scoring position. His performance in the fifth was inspiring!
 

JM3

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YTF

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No one is giving up Nick Yorke for Rich Hill. I said I'd consider giving up a mid-level prospect for the latter. Someone ranked between 15-30. A 43-year-old pitcher on a losing team who's having a meh season doesn't have much value. He'd be a decent upgrade for the Sox pen, though.
ATM he's got decent value to Pittsburgh, especially with slightly more than half the season to play. They're not giving him away right now and if the Sox are looking for a bullpen piece, that's what they should be targeting.
 

Jason Bae

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Crawford flashed promise last year, but was terribly inconsistent. What I really liked about his performance last night was that even though he didn't have his good stuff (the Twins were hitting line drives left and right), he excelled pitching with runners in scoring position. His performance in the fifth was inspiring!
I thought Crawford looked pretty solid last year until his last three starts (his ERA went from 4.18 to 5.47). He hit the IL promptly after, so that may have explained the struggles. And even then, his FIP and xFIP were more than a full run below his ERA.
 

E5 Yaz

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peteabe: Red Sox planning to recall LHP Brandon Walter for tomorrow afternoon. He is 1-5, 6.28 in 12 AAA games. 1.65 WHIP. Could follow an opener.
 

Benj4ever

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ATM he's got decent value to Pittsburgh, especially with slightly more than half the season to play. They're not giving him away right now and if the Sox are looking for a bullpen piece, that's what they should be targeting.
That's right, no starter has ever been converted to a reliever before. How silly of me.
 

YTF

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That's right, no starter has ever been converted to a reliever before. How silly of me.
Not exactly what I said, but OK I'll play. At this juncture would you prefer a guy that's used to going every five days when you may need him every 2-3 or guy who has been accustomed to that sort of usage? And at his age, with his injury history (because that seems to be a big concern here at SoSH) don't you worry about his durability?
 

JM3

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Rich Hill isn't very good at baseball & is currently more valuable to the Pirates than the Red Sox.

Thank you for coming to my dissertation on Rich Hill.