If he retires, then they paid him $60 million for one season. The deal is frontloaded from this point where it bones whoever has Rodgers on the team in 2023 (which is why GB really needs to get rid of him). If Rodgers is playing beyond 2023, it's not as bad.
The whole time during this Rodgers saga, I have found the reporting to rarely get the meat of any issue. It started with the idea that Rodgers to the Jets would be very cap friendly, since it would only cost them $15 million in cap space. I understand the prevailing wisdom is that cap space is flexible and you can kick the can down the road. But the reality is that number is $95 million short. They can get away with only booking $15 million in 2023, but they pay the piper eventually. He is going to cost $108 million in cap space.
It continues with this idea of Rodgers retiring before the 2024 season. It is not happening! No amount of dark rooms or Joe Rogen whispering is going to make Aaron Fucking Rodgers walk away from $49 million to play 17 football games. It's not a thing worth worrying about. It's just not going to happen. The scenarios involve assuming that he's full blown crazy and is prepared to do irrational things. He is only kind of crazy, and he's not giving up fifty million dollars.
What the Jets should be more worried about is injury. Rodgers 2024 salary gets guaranteed for injury at a certain point (the reporting is shitty on it). That's the triple whammy. He doesn't play and he gets paid and they get the cap hit.
I have no problem with the Jets pretending that Rodgers might retire in 2024 in order to try to get some concession. And really, from the Jets' perspective, there's no downside in seeing if you can get something for a contingency that has less than a 1 percent chance. Why not? From Green Bay's perspective, I don't think this is a big deal and you might as well give it, because, again, it ain't happening. So, GB will eventually cave, but might as well make the Jets stew in it another week or so.
Edit -- man, I come across like a know it all about a thing that I can't really know. Sorry. The guy kind of pisses me off. Not sure how he convinced anyone he would imagine not playing for $60 and then $50 million but here we are.