2023-24 Celtics
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- Start date
Pretty soft stretch coming up, and I’m pretty confident this team will take care of business against bad teams.
January looks like it could present some interesting challenges. The games on the 2nd, 10th and 11th in particular will be good benchmarks.
Porzingis is not a great 3-pt shooter and his numbers this year are right at his career average complete with the variance to get there. This is who he is. The value in our big hitting 35% of his deep 3's provides tremendous value aside from his shooting pct. The spacing is invaluable for our dribble penetration and as we've been discussing over the past 24 hours the missed 3's create more corner crashing opportunities for our offensive rebounders.
I recall his first year in Dallas when Carlisle was heavily criticized for using Kristaps 30-feet from the basket in many of their halfcourt sets while allowing him to take nearly half of his FGA behind the arc with his 35% pct. How did that work out over 82 games despite the fans eruption? All of the advantages of spacing with your big and his 35% pct resulted in the Mavs leading the entire league in Offensive Efficiency.
I dunno, I think a) he would have been overpaid for the role he would have been asked to play, b) Mazzulla would be putting a lot of DNP on him like last year, and c) he would be complaining loudly and clearly about not getting more time being a more highly paid bench player than Pritchard and Hauser.
He would have not been a starter, he would have likely screwed himself into the ground trying to be more than a corner 3 shooter, and defensively he ain't good enough to stay with quick players. His most useful defensive ability is his strength, but that's not useful enough except against guys like Giannis. Jokic and Embiid adjusted by shooting over him.
I think the most useful thing about keeping Grant would be trading him for Olynyk.
*edit* Olynyk is too low. Alex Caruso would be better.
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Compare with Timelord who, while a decent passer, had very limited gravity. Not a threat to dribble. Even less of a threat to shoot. So the passing has limited effect because it’s already kind of a 4 on 5 situation.
JT said it best. This team is hard to guard 1 on 1 no matter who has the ball, and when the defense sends help, everyone can defend. Couldn't say that about the team in past years - those teams, as POBOBS said, were "too easy to defend".
Please stay healthy.
Felt like a "true power of this fully operational battle station" game.
The offense down the stretch was beautiful. They ran variations of the same action without getting predictable, hunted Reaves mercilessly without bogging down to hunt the mismatch......just gorgeous. All against a really strong defensive lineup that wanted this game badly.
It truly is a make or miss league. If the Celtics make, they win by 30. If they miss, you can shoot 40% and still lose. The best path to beating them is to shoot 50% on contested 3s like Indy did in the IST. Sustainable!
The offense down the stretch was beautiful. They ran variations of the same action without getting predictable, hunted Reaves mercilessly without bogging down to hunt the mismatch......just gorgeous. All against a really strong defensive lineup that wanted this game badly.
It truly is a make or miss league. If the Celtics make, they win by 30. If they miss, you can shoot 40% and still lose. The best path to beating them is to shoot 50% on contested 3s like Indy did in the IST. Sustainable!
This is true, and also totally fine. The Celtics only care about health. I don't think they're at all scared of playing one extra game in Milwaukee or Philly, if healthy.
The regular season is meaningful for the Cs mostly in the reps it gets them. We are 29 games in, and they're just now figuring out how to maximize their top 5 offensively. Exciting.
This sounds about right.
Grant wanted a much bigger role, that was never going to be available in Boston. I also agree that his defense was slipping and less sustainable going forward. His exit has meant more minutes for Hauser. Sam will probably be extended next summer at a slight discount to GW $$$.
The same kind of holds for Pritchard, who wanted out but Brad decided he was worth keeping/extending. He has also taken on a bigger role with the Brogdon/Smart exit.
I liked all 4 of those main players that left but the starting talent upgrade has been noticeable and it looks like there is more team growth to come.
The concern with the Celtics bench/depth has been ridden hard by the NBA media. Doris pulled out the Boston's bench is 30th in scoring! during the telecast yesterday. No efficiency stats or context on how CJM has been dovetailing his TOP6. Measuring the bench production by POINTZ! is what you get from ESPN's #1 team.
I think the larger benefit is being able to let Milwaukee and Philly slug it out in the second round while hopefully beating up on a lesser opponent (NYK, Cavs, Magic) and being better rested in the ECF. But seems early in the year to be too worried about playoff matchups.
Here's the numbers on KP by half:
H1: 5-10 (1-6 from three, 4-4 from 2), 0-1 from the line, 11 points, 6 rebounds, 1 block, 1 turnover
H2: 6-9 (1-2 from three, 5-7 from 2), 4-6 from the line, 17 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal, and a block
H1: 5-10 (1-6 from three, 4-4 from 2), 0-1 from the line, 11 points, 6 rebounds, 1 block, 1 turnover
H2: 6-9 (1-2 from three, 5-7 from 2), 4-6 from the line, 17 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal, and a block
Al Horford is a "bench" player, and averages 26 minutes a game, but only 7.5 points a game. So, he is eating up a lot of the bench minutes with low scoring output. So, that is going to put a drag on the amount of "bench" scoring that they have.
HOWEVER, that completely misses the point of his role. He's not out there to score points, and I'd say that somehow the "weight" of the points he does score is definitely above average for the team. His 3P% and volume are both a little down from last season, but it still feels like he is always nailing that big 3P late in the game.
Defensively as well. i'm waiting to see a few games in a row where they lock teams up.
I thought the last 3 games they had quite good D. Against Sac and LAL that was masked by the other team hitting 3s at a high clip, and also some garbage time. LAL only put up 107 in the competitive portion of the game.
In the modern NBA, under 110 is often a good defensive performance, and "make or miss league" applies to defensive evaluation even in wins.
As pissed as I was (still am?) about the GS loss, it may have resulted in the best possible outcome for the trip as a whole.
Combined with winning both of the Cleveland and Orlando back to back’s, it’s definitely tough to be too upset. We’ll hammer GS at home.
There are only 3 teams allowing fewer than 110 points per game: Timberwolves (Gobert & Towns & Edwards); Rockets (Ime); and the Celtics.
The first 2 teams have been impressive on the defensive end of the ball: the Rockets have allowed fewer than 100 points 8 times (includes holding Denver to 86 points in an IST round robin victory), while the T-Wolves have done it 9 times (similarly holding the Nuggets to 89 points). The Celtics have accomplished that feat only 4 times, which is probably why they look less dominant on defense than they do on offense. However, this could also be a bit of a fluky stat this time of year.
Other fun fact: not only do the Celtics have the toughest strength-of-schedule so far at 0.537, the 9 point gap to the 2nd place team (Spurs) is the largest gap between any team and the team following in the SOS standings.
Tatum defended AD a team high 23 possessions, and allowed 4 points on 4 shots. One of the main reasons the Celtics can go small so often is because Tatum can be used as a 4/5 defensively against most teams. His turnover issues that he had for a few weeks seems to be all figured out now, just need to clean up the shot selection a bit, but we know he drives way more in the playoffs anyways, so it’s not something I bother worrying about.
I’m running out of ways to describe how amazing White has been. He’s great at every aspect of the game, doesn’t matter what. The all star game thing has become a lightning rod discussion, but he’s absolutely worthy of making it as of now. Doesn’t mean he will, as other guys are also deserving, but someone like White should be rewarded IMO.
I’m running out of ways to describe how amazing White has been. He’s great at every aspect of the game, doesn’t matter what. The all star game thing has become a lightning rod discussion, but he’s absolutely worthy of making it as of now. Doesn’t mean he will, as other guys are also deserving, but someone like White should be rewarded IMO.
Is Grant grumbling down in Dallas? I get that he is starting now, and maybe that's enough for him. Because his playing time is nearly identical (2 more minutes per game) and his usage has actually gone down. And also - Grant played in 79 games last year in the regulat season - there weren't "a lot of DNP last year"
Not to be the debbie downer here, but I think that our offensive prowess makes the defense look a little better than it is. Opponents are starting a lot of their possessions inbounding the ball. I still think that we're good, but I don't think that we're top-5 good. I think that the same could be said for Denver and Philly.
Per CTG
Top 5 in halfcourt defense
Wolves
Clippers
Thunder
Magic
Sixers
Top 5 in transition defense
Rockets
Thunder
Celtics
Nets
Cavs
Celtics are still elite in the halfcourt though, allow way below the league average. I buy the Celts as a top 5 defense, they are equipped to deal with pretty much any scheme. They’ve also had pretty poor shooting luck on that end, but that’s a whole different debate lol.
Top 5 in halfcourt defense
Wolves
Clippers
Thunder
Magic
Sixers
Top 5 in transition defense
Rockets
Thunder
Celtics
Nets
Cavs
Celtics are still elite in the halfcourt though, allow way below the league average. I buy the Celts as a top 5 defense, they are equipped to deal with pretty much any scheme. They’ve also had pretty poor shooting luck on that end, but that’s a whole different debate lol.
In the games with the (15-1) starting lineup, the Cs gave up 106.7 ppg, right there with the leaders in Minny at 106.6 ppg. In the (8-5) other games, they gave up 113.8 ppg. Boston has given up 109.9 ppg overall, with 9 or 10 games where there was garbage time in the fourth,, where the defense is being played by the back of the rotation.
Yeah there's something to this too. I'm not sure that any one bench guy is really killing them on defense, but when you have 2-3 of those guys on the floor at once, it can be a bit of a mess. Brown/Horford/Queta/Pritchard/Hauser was not a great defensive lineup.
edit: less of a problem come playoff time, as Queta hopefully never removes his warmups, and Al/PP/SH probably get sprinkled in among the starters more than thrown on the floor all at once.
To filter out garbage time, we can look at Cleaning the Glass, where the Celtics are 3rd in defensive rating.
The two teams ahead of them have had opponents shoot much worse from 3: 33% and 31%, to the Celtics' 37%. That's probably not all luck, but it's also very unlikely the true gap is that large.
The only reason I can think of to be down on the Celtics' defense is FOBO, Fear Of Being a hOmer.
How does one properly contextualize bench production, then? What should people focus on?
By POINTZ, I'd have thought the 3 point shooting of Hauser and PP would be making a dent somehow. I realize that our bench utilization is to have ~2 starters out there at all times, and perhaps they still score most of the points while on the floor. But Al, Kornet, PP and Hauser do put it in the basket from time to time, too. For them to be 30th does seem at least worth remarking on. Surely there's a better way to judge, yes, but I'm also not sure what that is.
I was surprised to see the brown + pritch / hauser lineup after reading numbers on how well pritch / hauser pair with Tatum, and white with brown. I suspect it just means joe is still testing out lineups...
If we’re talking top line numbers, a rate adjustment would be a place to start. That doesn’t factor in role but at least it accounts for starters minutes. With a strong top five, every Celtics starter averages 30+ minutes per game. Tatum is one of the league leaders.
He wasn't in the finishing lineup last night, though, as they closed out a close and rowdy one against PHX. Maybe because he'd been starting some shit with Booker. I found that to be eyebrow raising.
Exactly.
Yes, the Cs are 30th in bench points, but they're also 30th in bench minutes. Weird how that might correlate.
However, they're also:
- 3rd in 3-pt%
- 4th in +/-
- 7th in FG%
- 9th in raw # of rebounds (!!!)
- 24th in raw # of blocks
- 25th in raw # of assists
Kind of hard to make an argument that their bench is in some way a "problem."
I don't know if GW is grumbling but he didn't start last night and I think Kidd is going yo bring him off the bench for the foreseeable future. https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/dallas-mavs-start-derrick-jones-jr-dante-exum-kyrie-irving-returns-luka-doncic-dereck-lively-ii
Exum and Derrick Jones Jr. starting instead.
They're also:
- 3rd in NTRTG with a +3.8
- 8th in A/TO ratio
- 3rd in True Shooting %
Etc. Man, the NBA really does the best job of presenting stats in sortable fashion. Super easy and intuitive, right on their site. Amazing what you can dial down into so easily.
ESPN Producers & Doris should go a step further, as JJ Redick does on every telecast/podcast.
The Celtics (every NBA) bench should be graded on efficiency & context (as Tom Gordon does above) For example:
1. 3pt Shooting % for players that are brought in to spread the floor for Tatum/Brown rim attacks
2. Rotational +/- over the first 1/3 of the season
3. If they want to go anecdotal & use counting stats. Doris could mention that Queta had double-doubled 2X in the last week
4. How CJM is effectively using Brown + KP + White + Bench (that's a much more interesting/enlightening observation)
5. How Tatum has done with the bench mob this season vs historically
6. How the bench players like Hauser have done defensively, now that he isn't being relentlessly hunted like last season
Not being snarky but there are a dozen more ways to analyze player/bench performance and
if POINTZ! = performance (Doris' standard) then:
Tatum is having a down year
Porzingis is having a down year
Brown is having a down year
Holiday is having a down year
Horford is having a down year
or maybe less POINTZ = sacrificing to win?
Only non-TOP100 player, Derrick White, is doing better in POINTZ! but that cost the Celtics their intangibles leader
+ their 6th Man of the Year to get all those minutes/shots.ALSO, yesterday was a good chance for her or anyone at ESPN, other than JJ, to mention how badly they gaffed on their pre-season TOP100 list on White, but didn't.
A long-winded rant on my part on how horrible ESPN & the NBA media (outside of JJ) cover the Celtics/NBA hoops in general.
Then again every NBA game can be simplified & explained away with its a Make or Miss League
, tune in tomorrow.
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There is enough rotation level depth on the bench after Horford to win enough games in the regular season to be a top 2-3 seed if any of the starters miss extended time. The 8-5 record without the starting lineup includes three away OT losses.
When the rotation tightens up in the playoffs, assuming KP plays around 33 minutes, and the other starters play around 38, that leaves only 55 minutes for the bench. Horford can play 28-30 of them leaving around 13-14 mpg each for PP and Hauser. The Cs should bring in a vet in the buyout market, since there’s little playoff experience on this bench after AL and PP
When the rotation tightens up in the playoffs, assuming KP plays around 33 minutes, and the other starters play around 38, that leaves only 55 minutes for the bench. Horford can play 28-30 of them leaving around 13-14 mpg each for PP and Hauser. The Cs should bring in a vet in the buyout market, since there’s little playoff experience on this bench after AL and PP
If ABC/ESPN has Doc Rivers in their number one broadcast team, why the hell do they need Doris Burke? Doc mIght be a questionable playoff coach, but he is excellent in the booth.
ABC/Disney should just outsource their NBA presentation to TNT. Their pregame and half time shows suck. Wilson and SaS are fighting for the Captain Obvious title. I do like Perk, but am in the minority. Doris is weak as an analyst choice on their lead team. Bob Myers is bad, and Hubie unfortunately lost his fastball, curve ball, slider, and knuckleball. I do like Redick and Richard Jefferson. There are so many interesting, articulate, with it former NBA players out there, who are crushing it on the podcast scene. Since ESPN gets its ass kicked by TNT, yearly, maybe it’s time to try to develop some interesting characters as talent. JJ and RJ seems to be a good start.
ABC/Disney should just outsource their NBA presentation to TNT. Their pregame and half time shows suck. Wilson and SaS are fighting for the Captain Obvious title. I do like Perk, but am in the minority. Doris is weak as an analyst choice on their lead team. Bob Myers is bad, and Hubie unfortunately lost his fastball, curve ball, slider, and knuckleball. I do like Redick and Richard Jefferson. There are so many interesting, articulate, with it former NBA players out there, who are crushing it on the podcast scene. Since ESPN gets its ass kicked by TNT, yearly, maybe it’s time to try to develop some interesting characters as talent. JJ and RJ seems to be a good start.
Bench:
Most teams bring a microwave scorer/6th man off the bench.
The Celtics have 5 playmaking starters, so they stagger them to achieve the same effect.
Not much more to analyze beyond that (once you check that the staggered units are performing well).
Most teams bring a microwave scorer/6th man off the bench.
The Celtics have 5 playmaking starters, so they stagger them to achieve the same effect.
Not much more to analyze beyond that (once you check that the staggered units are performing well).
I know we discussed in the JMazz thread but I think what he said in the recent Globe interview bears repeating:
(QYou’ve seemed to make a point of boosting up Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in press conferences after relatively quiet statistical games. What is behind that?
You’ve seemed to make a point of boosting up Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in press conferences after relatively quiet statistical games. What is behind that?JM: It’s a little bit of changing the narrative of what value is and what success looks like. For such a long time in the NBA, value is how many shots did you get and how many points did you score? Very few times do you have guys like Jaylen and Jayson welcome two other superstars [in Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis] and then empower Derrick [White], who should be an All-Star. So what I really want to do is change the lens of what value and success look like.
I think they’re way more valuable than they get credit for, because of their ability to be great teammates. And that’s not talked about or clicked on enough. The fact that one of those two guys could take 8-10 shots and keep playing hard on defense, to me that’s just as valuable as giving them the ball every time and scoring 40.
I have subscriber fatigue & don't get the Globe.I know we discussed in the JMazz thread but I think what he said in the recent Globe interview bears repeating:
(Q
JM: It’s a little bit of changing the narrative of what value is and what success looks like. For such a long time in the NBA, value is how many shots did you get and how many points did you score? Very few times do you have guys like Jaylen and Jayson welcome two other superstars [in Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis] and then empower Derrick [White], who should be an All-Star. So what I really want to do is change the lens of what value and success look like.I think they’re way more valuable than they get credit for, because of their ability to be great teammates. And that’s not talked about or clicked on enough. The fact that one of those two guys could take 8-10 shots and keep playing hard on defense, to me that’s just as valuable as giving them the ball every time and scoring 40.
As usual, thanks for posting & quoting Wade
Also worth noting that Boston has started bench players 15 times in 29 games. Most of that is Horford (10 starts), but also Hauser (3), Banton (1), and Stevens (1).
I don't have a Globe subscription either to tell the truth.
And thanks for posting too!
That quote is awesome.I know we discussed in the JMazz thread but I think what he said in the recent Globe interview bears repeating:
(Q
JM: It’s a little bit of changing the narrative of what value is and what success looks like. For such a long time in the NBA, value is how many shots did you get and how many points did you score? Very few times do you have guys like Jaylen and Jayson welcome two other superstars [in Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis] and then empower Derrick [White], who should be an All-Star. So what I really want to do is change the lens of what value and success look like.I think they’re way more valuable than they get credit for, because of their ability to be great teammates. And that’s not talked about or clicked on enough. The fact that one of those two guys could take 8-10 shots and keep playing hard on defense, to me that’s just as valuable as giving them the ball every time and scoring 40.
Some updated numbers:
FGA/blocks/FTAs
2023-2024: Celtics: 91.3 FGA/100, 6.42 blocks/100, 21.81 FTA/100
2023-2024: Opponent: 93.0 FGA/100, 3.84 blocks/100, 19.40 FTA/100
Net: -1.7 FGA/100, +2.58 blocks/100, +2.41 FTA/100
Rebounding numbers:
2023-2024: Celtics: 38.95 DR/100, 13.42 OR/100, DR% 74.0%, OR% 27.8%
2023-2024: Opponent: 34.85 DR/100, 13.68 OR/100, DR% 72.2%, OR% 26.0%
2023-2024: League defensive rebounding average 72.4%
Turnovers:
2023-2024: Celtics: 13.25 TO/100, Opponents: 12.49 TO/100, -0.76 net turnover differential
Offensive Fouls:
2023-2024: Celtics: 2.03 OffFouls/100, Opponents: 1.40 OffFouls/100, -0.63 net
Liveball:
2023-2024: Celtics: 6.64 LBTO/100, Opponents: 6.88 LBTO/100, +0.2 net
Since last I did this exercise:
FGA deficit has improved significantly, mostly as a result of committing fewer turnovers.
Defensive rebounding has been worse.
Offensive rebounding has been better.
Total rebounding is a wash.
FGA/blocks/FTAs
2023-2024: Celtics: 91.3 FGA/100, 6.42 blocks/100, 21.81 FTA/100
2023-2024: Opponent: 93.0 FGA/100, 3.84 blocks/100, 19.40 FTA/100
Net: -1.7 FGA/100, +2.58 blocks/100, +2.41 FTA/100
Rebounding numbers:
2023-2024: Celtics: 38.95 DR/100, 13.42 OR/100, DR% 74.0%, OR% 27.8%
2023-2024: Opponent: 34.85 DR/100, 13.68 OR/100, DR% 72.2%, OR% 26.0%
2023-2024: League defensive rebounding average 72.4%
Turnovers:
2023-2024: Celtics: 13.25 TO/100, Opponents: 12.49 TO/100, -0.76 net turnover differential
Offensive Fouls:
2023-2024: Celtics: 2.03 OffFouls/100, Opponents: 1.40 OffFouls/100, -0.63 net
Liveball:
2023-2024: Celtics: 6.64 LBTO/100, Opponents: 6.88 LBTO/100, +0.2 net
Since last I did this exercise:
FGA deficit has improved significantly, mostly as a result of committing fewer turnovers.
Defensive rebounding has been worse.
Offensive rebounding has been better.
Total rebounding is a wash.
I file this one under, the coach doing the wrong thing on the floor short term but is the right thing long term off the floor.
I think Mazzulla knows that if you're going to have a lineup with more bench players on the floor it makes more sense to have Tatum lead it than Brown. But I think he has Brown lead it to appease him from being squeezed a little in minutes with the starters. So he takes a bit of a backseat when he's with the starters, leave him in with the bench players and go nuts.
I'd bet heavily when it comes to playoff time, if they need to run lineups with more than one bench player on the floor Tatum will be out there as well.
Starter+ Pritchard/Hauser pairings.
White/Hauser/Pritchard: +22.6
Holiday/Hauser/Pritchard: +21.2
Tatum/Hauser/Pritchard: +10.1
Jaylen/Hauser/Pritchard: -0.4
KP/Hauser/Pritchard: -14.1
White/Al: +12.4
Tatum/Al: +7.3
Holiday/Al: +6.8
Jaylen/Al: +4.4
KP/Al: +5.9
Holiday/Tatum/Pritch/Hauser/Al: +26.1
Obviously plenty of relatively small sample lineups, but it’s pretty clear what pairings have worked, and which haven’t. Because the coaches have nailed the pairings, the Celtics just come at other teams in waves of elite.
People can talk all they want about the bench, but the Celtics consistently smoke teams with heavy bench lineups.
White/Hauser/Pritchard: +22.6
Holiday/Hauser/Pritchard: +21.2
Tatum/Hauser/Pritchard: +10.1
Jaylen/Hauser/Pritchard: -0.4
KP/Hauser/Pritchard: -14.1
White/Al: +12.4
Tatum/Al: +7.3
Holiday/Al: +6.8
Jaylen/Al: +4.4
KP/Al: +5.9
Holiday/Tatum/Pritch/Hauser/Al: +26.1
Obviously plenty of relatively small sample lineups, but it’s pretty clear what pairings have worked, and which haven’t. Because the coaches have nailed the pairings, the Celtics just come at other teams in waves of elite.
People can talk all they want about the bench, but the Celtics consistently smoke teams with heavy bench lineups.
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I don't think many people doubt the Celtics have enough to win the title when fully healthy. They just need one more playoff rotation guy so they can get through if they're not.
If you look at the IST loss to Indiana, Porzingis was out and Jaylen got into foul trouble. That led to Hauser/Pritchard/Kornet/Banton playing a combined 66 minutes. Now IST isn't a playoff game, but it's as close as you can get for a regular season game as the starters played big minutes.
Even if they pushed the remaining 4 guys from the big 6 another 4 minutes, you'd still need 50 minutes from the bench guys. That's probably untenable. They just have to have one more guy better than the guys outside of the top 8 to step in for emergencies.
Kelly Olynyk, in the buyout market, would be that KP/Al injury insurance hedge
Would you sacrifice Payton's shooting for
1. Caruso if the cost was PP + Firsts + filler?
2. Thybulle if the cost was PP + Seconds + filler?
I don't want to sound down on the defense (or bench) at all. Definitely not. The defense is good. I just think that defensive numbers get lost sometimes in the effect that really good offense has on them. If we profile as a top-5 defense statistically, we might be. But we might also be more like top-10 in a vacuum, but elevated to top-5 because the offense is limiting runouts and basically converting more. Just throwing it out there.
Agree with all of this. Spend the 82 resting guys and testing the fences. See what lineup combinations work at which end. Don't worry about dropping a couple of games here and there. Long-term is what's important, not a December game result.