2023-24 Celtics

[lexrageorge]

BenHogan had this excellent summary in the NBA game thread that deserves some more attention:

(2) If you're correct that there is not going to be any "second unit" as most teams play one, but rather a steady presence of starters on the floor at any given time, with both halves opening and closing with all of them - then aren't we at risk of running the starters too many minutes and raising our injury risk? Bench minutes our first two games, Horford included:

#1: 58' (NYK: 92')
#2: 62' (MIA: 79') - and this would've been 59' had KP not fouled out

We don't have a ton of data yet, but my impression is that we're playing our bench fewer minutes than most NBA teams usually do. White and Tatum are ironmen, but particularly for Porzingis and Horford (and to a lesser extent Holiday and Brown, for different reasons) I assume we really want to cut them more of a break. And that may mean a rotation strategy that doesn't lean as heavily on the starters for as much of the game as it has thus far.

Perhaps after we get in our reps for "learning how to play together", the middle third of the season will feature more bench development and seeing who can hang from the crew that's behind our top 8. With Kornet essentially interviewing for his job, Brissett already seeing the floor, and most of the other guys giving reason for optimism at some point in the preseason, I hope we can settle on the idea that a few of them are playable, or are likely to become so if given some reps and rope.

Just a note on the minutes: The Celtics have had a light schedule so far. One game off after their opener, and then 2 days off after the Miami game. The Heat, meanwhile, were on the front end of a back-to-back.

The Knicks bench minutes were influenced by Immanuel Quickley going off for 24 points on 5-7 from deep. Miami's bench usage was influenced by Spoelstra having to start Kevin Love.

I do expect the bench to find more minutes in the near future, as the Celtics schedule tightens up quickly after this week.

 

[128]

View: https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1719020372488491507

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Just a note on the minutes: The Celtics have had a light schedule so far. One game off after their opener, and then 2 days off after the Miami game. The Heat, meanwhile, were on the front end of a back-to-back.

The Knicks bench minutes were influenced by Immanuel Quickley going off for 24 points on 5-7 from deep. Miami's bench usage was influenced by Spoelstra having to start Kevin Love.

I do expect the bench to find more minutes in the near future, as the Celtics schedule tightens up quickly after this week.

There's also the fact that their light schedule also had difficult opponents.

If the C's played say, Charlotte in game 2 and were up 25 at the half and 25 at the end of the third, we're not even worrying about minutes right now.

The fact is the played 2 of the final 4 teams in the Eastern Conference last year, and two teams that will undoubtedly be in the playoffs this season, and they had a light schedule.

These games were tailor made for playing the starters until you wrapped up the win. If Joe is rolling Tatum and the rest out there 38+ minutes in blowouts, and I firmly believe there will be a lot of them, this discussion will make a ton more sense.

 

[InstaFace]

Fair enough on not being worried about minutes in general.

But on BenHogan's specific point - he says that we're adopting a strategy of having several starters out there continuously throughout the game, and never really having a "second unit" that's out there together with mostly only 1 starter (which from what I have seen is more typical sub patterns, though obviously varies team-to-team and day-to-day). If so, don't we end up with 1 of 2 problems? (1) minutes problems for the starters, or (2) guys in lineups that they're not used to playing together with, and which will be more likely to contain matchup disadvantages?

Like, if that move makes sense for us, why don't other teams with deeper rosters, who aren't stars-and-scrubs kind of team composition, do the same? Miami being an obvious one where they trust their whole rotation and aren't really built around a single transcendent superstar like an Embiid, Lebron or Giannis. Or Denver, who despite having the #1 player in the league also have a very strong starting 5 in Murray, Gordon, KCP and Porter? Those are the teams we're most looking to emulate (and beat), of course, so are they doing differently?

 

[lovegtm]

Fair enough on not being worried about minutes in general.

But on BenHogan's specific point - he says that we're adopting a strategy of having several starters out there continuously throughout the game, and never really having a "second unit" that's out there together with mostly only 1 starter (which from what I have seen is more typical sub patterns, though obviously varies team-to-team and day-to-day). If so, don't we end up with 1 of 2 problems? (1) minutes problems for the starters, or (2) guys in lineups that they're not used to playing together with, and which will be more likely to contain matchup disadvantages?

Like, if that move makes sense for us, why don't other teams with deeper rosters, who aren't stars-and-scrubs kind of team composition, do the same? Miami being an obvious one where they trust their whole rotation and aren't really built around a single transcendent superstar like an Embiid, Lebron or Giannis. Or Denver, who despite having the #1 player in the league also have a very strong starting 5 in Murray, Gordon, KCP and Porter? Those are the teams we're most looking to emulate (and beat), of course, so are they doing differently?

The reason for benhogan's idea is that Cs are weird in that their top 5 are all offensive creators to some degree, as opposed to Denver, where really only Murray and Jokic are creators. On Miami, only Butler and Herro are really creators, and they have to manufacture weird stuff with Bam/Duncan handoffs when those guys sit.

Any combination of 2-3 starters + bench that the Cs roll out has 2-3 primary offensive guys. We saw exactly this play out against Miami.

Denver and Milwaukee might have better top-end creators, but the Cs are abnormally deep in that regard.

 

[Euclis20]

It's absurdly early, but still amusing to see the Celtics are 1st in opposing 2p FG% (.357) and last in opposing 3p FG% (.459). Hopefully the latter is the fluky number.

 

[benhogan]

BenHogan had this excellent summary in the NBA game thread that deserves some more attention:

I guess I have a few questions in reply:

(1) how is Brad's strategy different than most NBA teams, other than the fact that he has a dynamite starting lineup? From what I can tell if you can't shoot the lights out and you can't defend NBA players, you're not on an NBA roster.

In the past you could maybe say that non-starting-but-rotation players like Grant, Rozier, Thompson etc could contribute on both ends as a sort of "starter-lite" profile. That Schröder was Smart-lite, say. But I'm not sure Brad has gone to any greater extreme than usual in being willing to overlook one end of the floor if someone is solid on the other end, for end-of-bench roles.

(2) If you're correct that there is not going to be any "second unit" as most teams play one, but rather a steady presence of starters on the floor at any given time, with both halves opening and closing with all of them - then aren't we at risk of running the starters too many minutes and raising our injury risk? Bench minutes our first two games, Horford included:

#1: 58' (NYK: 92')
#2: 62' (MIA: 79') - and this would've been 59' had KP not fouled out

We don't have a ton of data yet, but my impression is that we're playing our bench fewer minutes than most NBA teams usually do. White and Tatum are ironmen, but particularly for Porzingis and Horford (and to a lesser extent Holiday and Brown, for different reasons) I assume we really want to cut them more of a break. And that may mean a rotation strategy that doesn't lean as heavily on the starters for as much of the game as it has thus far.

Perhaps after we get in our reps for "learning how to play together", the middle third of the season will feature more bench development and seeing who can hang from the crew that's behind our top 8. With Kornet essentially interviewing for his job, Brissett already seeing the floor, and most of the other guys giving reason for optimism at some point in the preseason, I hope we can settle on the idea that a few of them are playable, or are likely to become so if given some reps and rope.

Thanks for the props. I honestly don't see a problem with starter minutes like most have noted above.

Seems like Brad has gone against the norm with his bench roster from past cusp Contenders.

No Ring Chasers. Historically NBA teams on the brink of winning a CHIP have filled out their bench with older NBA veterans on minimum deals looking to grab a ring (ie Blake last season).

#7-17 is aged 24-28 except JDD/Walsh, who I expect no NBA role this season.

Pros that pretty much play one-way, but will exert effort to get minutes. No sulking if they can't get minutes.
The most seasoned games played veteran? 26yr old Svi Myk at 252 NBA games. Stevens has started the most NBA games (38)

Maybe no Ring Chasers wanted to play in Boston? But it didn't feel like Brad was ever looking to sign Oubre, Dedmon, Biyombo, Trez, PatBev, Crowder, Malik Beasley, Bamba, Saric, DeAndre Jordan, Ish Smith, Wes Matthews, etc

 

[lovegtm]

Thanks for the props. I honestly don't see a problem with starter minutes like most have noted above.

Seems like Brad has gone against the norm with his bench roster from past cusp Contenders.

No Ring Chasers. Historically NBA teams on the brink of winning a CHIP have filled out their bench with older NBA veterans on minimum deals looking to grab a ring (ie Blake last season).

#7-17 is aged 24-28 except JDD/Walsh, who I expect no NBA role this season.

Pros that pretty much play one-way, but will exert effort to get minutes. No sulking if they can't get minutes.
The most seasoned games played veteran? 26yr old Svi Myk at 252 NBA games. Stevens has started the most NBA games (38)

Maybe no Ring Chasers wanted to play in Boston? But it didn't feel like Brad was ever looking to sign Oubre, Dedmon, Biyombo, Trez, PatBev, Crowder, Malik Beasley, Bamba, Saric, DeAndre Jordan, Ish Smith, Wes Matthews, etc

There aren't many good ring-chasing candidates right now. A lot of older guys are still playing really well and getting paid (CP3, for example).

Honestly, Al at $10M/year is about as close to ring-chasing as it gets currently.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Part of landing ring chasers is timing too. Looking at Hogan's list above, not a ton of guys to get psyched about. When buyout season comes, maybe someone who better fits a need and the culture becomes available.

 

[the moops]

It's absurdly early, but still amusing to see the Celtics are 1st in opposing 2p FG% (.357) and last in opposing 3p FG% (.459). Hopefully the latter is the fluky number.

Of course it is. The Spurs had a historically terrible defense last year, and they only gave up 39% on threes

 

[Euclis20]

Of course it is. The Spurs had a historically terrible defense last year, and they only gave up 39% on threes

Yup, I meant to say hopefully the ranking is the fluky number. Nobody is gonna give up almost 46% on 3 pointers this year, but someone has to finish last (and a couple teams have to finish near the bottom). The main advantage of the Celtics' switch everything defense of the last few years is that it almost never gave up open looks from 3, so if the defense is gonna be more drop coverage this year, it's something to watch.

 

[benhogan]

Part of landing ring chasers is timing too. Looking at Hogan's list above, not a ton of guys to get psyched about. When buyout season comes, maybe someone who better fits a need and the culture becomes available.

The BUCK's went in a completely different direction adding Crowder/Beasley/Robin Lopez with a bunch of youngsters (5 rookies/1yr players).

When Stotts walked out on the Bucks, I started looking at them more closely and thought it looked messy.
Then the adv metric sites had the BUCK's wins totals completely out of line with Vegas.

I'd guess HRB was probably smacking that 54.5 number pretty hard and will probably cover it if they have a slow start

 

[Double Down Trent]

Part of landing ring chasers is timing too. Looking at Hogan's list above, not a ton of guys to get psyched about. When buyout season comes, maybe someone who better fits a need and the culture becomes available.

Anyone know if the Celtics can sign a buyout player now that we are a second apron team?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Anyone know if the Celtics can sign a buyout player now that we are a second apron team?

Cs cannot sign a buyout player if that players contract was over non-taxpayor MLE at the time he was cut.

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1708655303045059040

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yup, I meant to say hopefully the ranking is the fluky number. Nobody is gonna give up almost 46% on 3 pointers this year, but someone has to finish last (and a couple teams have to finish near the bottom). The main advantage of the Celtics' switch everything defense of the last few years is that it almost never gave up open looks from 3, so if the defense is gonna be more drop coverage this year, it's something to watch.

The Cs could run a defense where each player had one hand tied behind his back and they still wouldn't end up in last in the NBA in 3P %.

I mean I would be shocked if they weren't top 10%, unless the reason for that was because they blew out a ton of teams and teams were hitting garbage time 3Ps after the starters had sub'd out for the game.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Cs cannot sign a buyout player if that players contract was over non-taxpayor MLE at the time he was cut.

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1708655303045059040

Forgot that. Good callout Wade and Trent.

 

[ifmanis5]

They can still use Grant's TPE and they can still sign ring chasing vets at the minimum.

 

[lexrageorge]

Maybe no Ring Chasers wanted to play in Boston? But it didn't feel like Brad was ever looking to sign Oubre, Dedmon, Biyombo, Trez, PatBev, Crowder, Malik Beasley, Bamba, Saric, DeAndre Jordan, Ish Smith, Wes Matthews, etc

Some of the reluctance was probably Stevens trying to avoid climbing over the 2nd apron too early. Turned out to be a good thing as they may not have been able to acquire Holliday had they signed some of the players on the list above. And digging into this list:

Oubre: Getting a chance to average 29mpg in Philly; probably doesn't get nearly that many minutes in Boston.
Beverley: Doesn't have a role here.
Jae Crowder: Ditto
Bamba: Triple ditto.
Beasley: Is starting for the Bucks. Wouldn't be doing that here.
Saric: Probably likes California
Ish Smith: Beyond cooked and has a ring anyway.

Still available:
Dedmon
Biyombo
Trez Harrel
DeAndre Jordan - now has a ring and is beyond cooked
Ish Smith - same
Wes Matthews - victim of horrific timing when it comes to ring chasing, so probably just as well

 

[DavidTai]

Still available:
Biyombo
Trez Harrel

Biyombo's signing a non-guaranteed contract with the Grizzlies due to Adams being out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/former-suns-center-bismack-biyombo-signing-with-new-team/ar-AA1j35uW

Think Harrell would be available after the all-star break as he recovers from ACL Surgery in August, but I don't see why the Celtics would want him anyway, as he's not good enough defensively.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

There aren't many good ring-chasing candidates right now. A lot of older guys are still playing really well and getting paid (CP3, for example).

Honestly, Al at $10M/year is about as close to ring-chasing as it gets currently.

I expect this to change at the deadline. Brad isn't going to make the Kristaps and Jrue moves.....and not look to upgrade Kornet, Hauser and Pritchard. We will be adding veterans pieces you can pretty much be assured of this.

 

[Smokey Joe]

Biyombo's signing a non-guaranteed contract with the Grizzlies due to Adams being out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/former-suns-center-bismack-biyombo-signing-with-new-team/ar-AA1j35uW

Think Harrell would be available after the all-star break as he recovers from ACL Surgery in August, but I don't see why the Celtics would want him anyway, as he's not good enough defensively.

Harrell could fit in Danilo Gallinari’s spot on the bench.

Ish Smith is playing for Charlotte unless he got released again.

 

[DavidTai]

Harrell could fit in Danilo Gallinari’s spot on the bench.

Ish Smith is playing for Charlotte unless he got released again.

Think Svi has the Gallinari spot, and I'd rather have him there anyway.

Nerlens Noel and Dwight Howard are free agents too, but I can't see them picking them up after all this time.

 

[InstaFace]

Part of landing ring chasers is timing too. Looking at Hogan's list above, not a ton of guys to get psyched about. When buyout season comes, maybe someone who better fits a need and the culture becomes available.

Our $6.2M trade exception from Grant Williams expires at the end of the season, not the trade deadline, right? That would seem to be a number we could pick up a useful guy at if he's not in his team's future plans. Or does Keith Smith's point about the second apron apply to that, too?

 

[Jimbodandy]

Our $6.2M trade exception from Grant Williams expires at the end of the season, not the trade deadline, right? That would seem to be a number we could pick up a useful guy at if he's not in his team's future plans.

I'm deferring to those with better memories than I, but I believe that his TPE is good for a calendar year from the time of the trade and could be split into two guys.

 

[Double Down Trent]

Cs cannot sign a buyout player if that players contract was over non-taxpayor MLE at the time he was cut.

View: https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/1708655303045059040

It looks like the non-taxpayer MLE this year is 12.4 million. So that at least gives us some possibilities.

 

[benhogan]

It looks like the non-taxpayer MLE this year is 12.4 million. So that at least gives us some possibilities.

The Celtics are a tax-payer.

Grant's $6.2MM TPE is all Brad has.

 

[the moops]

The Celtics are a tax-payer.

Grant's $6.2MM TPE is all Brad has.

They are talking buyout guys. If some vet is bought out, a second apron team like BOS cannot sign him if his salary was more than 12.4 million

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

<Googles all NBA players making less than 12.399999999mm>

 

[the moops]

<Googles all NBA players making less than 12.399999999mm>

And need to be in last year of their deal most likely. And even then, if it is someone we would want, you think they might have some value, and would more likely be traded than bought out. Or they are already on a contender.

Like Alec Burks fits, but they could get a couple seconds at least for him. Same with someone like Olynyk.

 

[Auger34]

And need to be in last year of their deal most likely. And even then, if it is someone we would want, you think they might have some value, and would more likely be traded than bought out. Or they are already on a contender.

Like Alec Burks fits, but they could get a couple seconds at least for him. Same with someone like Olynyk.

Brad’s a big fan of Kelly O, that could be the move

 

[HomeRunBaker]

You don't get to play against lockdown defenders like Poole, Kuzma, Kispert and Gallo every night. This is a great.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

You don't get to play against lockdown defenders like Poole, Kuzma, Kispert and Gallo every night. This is a great.

As soon as I saw "Starting Center, Kyle Kuzma" I knew this was going to be an easy offensive evening.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

As soon as I saw "Starting Center, Kyle Kuzma" I knew this was going to be an easy offensive evening.

Between the Commanders and the Wizards there isn't a whole lot of defense being played in DC these days. This is so epic roster construction by the Wiz here.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Maybe Brad will get something prior to the deadline unless Hauser and Pritchard get it together. We may hit 130 tonight with them shooting a combined 2-15 from 3.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Between the Commanders and the Wizards there isn't a whole lot of defense being played in DC these days. This is so epic roster construction by the Wiz here.

'
I get that if you're rebuilding you don't care, but "Kyle Kuzma, Starting Center" is pushing it a bit far.

I guess they have Gafford (hurt tonight) but he isn't good either. Mike Muscala---while, we know that what is like.

It's kind of amazing to literally have zero size whatsoever. And not in a Don Nelson "there's a theory here and we're leaning into it" kind of way

 

[HomeRunBaker]

'
I get that if you're rebuilding you don't care, but "Kyle Kuzma, Starting Center" is pushing it a bit far.

I guess they have Gafford (hurt tonight) but he isn't good either. Mike Muscala---while, we know that what is like.

It's kind of amazing to literally have zero size whatsoever. And not in a Don Nelson "there's a theory here and we're leaning into it" kind of way

I actually like Gafford a lot on the right team. He'd be a nice rotation big on a contender but gets lost in that shitshow bc he isn't a numbers guy.

 

[DGreenwood]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nsKr40U5uvQ&ab_channel=NBA

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Yes, and at 3/$39 remaining he's not all that acquireable for the role he can play. Just a destruction of value by Wiz...a perfectly solid rotation big guy is overpriced, and not good enough to be a starter

 

[benhogan]

It's kind of amazing to literally have zero size whatsoever. And not in a Don Nelson "there's a theory here and we're leaning into it" kind of way

The Wizards are in full multi-year tank mode, their roster is a jumbled mess. They have no plans other than to lose a lot and try to draft well (as far as I can see). I'm surprised they didn't just buy Gallinari out, & give his minutes to some youngster with promise.

I'd guess Daniel Gafford is one of the few assets that might get them something at the trade deadline.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The Wizards are in full multi-year tank mode, their roster is a jumbled mess. They have no plans other than to lose a lot and try to draft well (as far as I can see). I'm surprised they didn't just buy Gallinari out, & give his minutes to some youngster with promise.

I'd guess Daniel Gafford is one of the few assets that might get them something at the trade deadline.

Gafford is one Horford season ending injury away from renting in Wellesley.

 

[lovegtm]

Maybe Brad will get something prior to the deadline unless Hauser and Pritchard get it together. We may hit 130 tonight with them shooting a combined 2-15 from 3.

They both have substantial track records of being good spot-up shooters. Not sure why we'd expect that to change, based on a 3-game sample?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

They both have substantial track records of being good spot-up shooters. Not sure why we'd expect that to change, based on a 3-game sample?

As change of pace 9th/10th men fine. You don't want these guys on the floor 20+ min in the playoffs if there's foul trouble do you and you certainly don't want to rely on them for stretches each night in that environment. It seems like both may be trying to do too much which isn't their skillset at this level.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Danny Green was waived by Sixers, a roster casualty of the Hardern deal.

He's 36 and may well be cooked---but fits the "potential ring-chasing wing" archetype we've discussed around here.

 

[benhogan]

Gafford is one Horford season ending injury away from renting in Wellesley.

I always liked Gafford as a poor man's TL, in the right role DG could add value. BUT as Pedro said above the $$$ is problematic.

Not concerned about PP/Hauser. Sam still continues to show defensive competence, & his stroke will come around.

Kornet has trouble adding value with any rotation he plays with. He is by far the #1 bench concern.

I continue to like what Stevens/Svi bring and believe they will eventually jump Brissett/Banton

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/lissnx14/status/1719329829571420578

 

[Deathofthebambino]

C's are now 24-1 when both Brown and Tatum score 30 in a game.

They have the third most 30 point duo games (25) in NBA history, behind only Durant/Westbrook (34) and Shaq/Kobe (33).

 

[FireChief]

C's are now 24-1 when both Brown and Tatum score 30 in a game.

They have the third most 30 point duo games (25) in NBA history, behind only Durant/Westbrook (34) and Shaq/Kobe (33).

Out of curiosity, laziness, and perhaps a faulty memory, which game was the 1?

 

[Euclis20]

Out of curiosity, laziness, and perhaps a faulty memory, which game was the 1?

Overtime lose to Cleveland last year. Easy to lose when two teammates score 30 when the other team has two guys (Mitchell and LeVert) who each score 40.

 

[bosockboy]

Overtime lose to Cleveland last year. Easy to lose when two teammates score 30 when the other team has two guys (Mitchell and LeVert) who each score 40.

Or when Grant misses two free throws where either win the game.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

You had to bring up those Grant Williams free throws.